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DOE OSTI2024

Geographical Insights into Suicide Mortality Through Spatial Machine Learning

Suicide mortality is a leading cause of death in the United States, with an upward trend that emphasizes its significance as a public health issue. Previous research has employed global models like ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and local models such as geographically weighted regression (GWR). While local models are useful for analyzing spatial variations in suicide mortality, they share limitations with traditional global models, particularly about their inability to handle multi-collinearity and non-linear relationships. Machine learning approaches, like random forests (RF), can address some of these limitations but often fail to account for spatial variability. This gap highlights the need for spatial ML models specifically designed to tackle suicide mortality. This research seeks to fill this void by using a geographically weighted random forest model (GWRF) to examine the associations between county-level suicide mortality in the U.S. from 2010 to 2020 and various social and environmental determinants of health. A key aspect of our methodology is disciplined feature selection, which reduces the pool of explanatory variables by about 90%. This refinement enhances the explanatory power of both global (R2 improved from 0.59 to 0.67) and local (R2 improved from 0.64 to 0.67) RF models while reducing their run times. An analysis of the importance scores for these selected features reveals that the drivers of suicide mortality vary by context. Thus, to effectively address regional disparities and inform targeted public health interventions, a holistic approach that incorporates multiple county-level characteristics is essential.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗

DOE OSTI2020

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1996

Application of Probabilistic Methods for the Determination of an Economically Robust HSCT Configuration

This paper outlines an approach for the determination of economically viable robust design solutions using the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) as a case study. Furthermore, the paper states the advantages of a probability based aircraft design over the traditional point design approach. It also proposes a new methodology called Robust Design Simulation (RDS) which treats customer satisfaction as the ultimate design objective. RDS is based on a probabilistic approach to aerospace systems design, which views the chosen objective as a distribution function introduced by so called noise or uncertainty variables. Since the designer has no control over these variables, a variability distribution is defined for each one of them. The cumulative effect of all these distributions causes the overall variability of the objective function. For cases where the selected objective function depends heavily on these noise variables, it may be desirable to obtain a design solution that minimizes this dependence. The paper outlines a step by step approach on how to achieve such a solution for the HSCT case study and introduces an evaluation criterion which guarantees the highest customer satisfaction. This customer satisfaction is expressed by the probability of achieving objective function values less than a desired target value.

Mavris, Dimitri N.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Distributed Relaxation for Conservative Discretizations

A multigrid method is defined as having textbook multigrid efficiency (TME) if the solutions to the governing system of equations are attained in a computational work that is a small (less than 10) multiple of the operation count in one target-grid residual evaluation. The way to achieve this efficiency is the distributed relaxation approach. TME solvers employing distributed relaxation have already been demonstrated for nonconservative formulations of high-Reynolds-number viscous incompressible and subsonic compressible flow regimes. The purpose of this paper is to provide foundations for applications of distributed relaxation to conservative discretizations. A direct correspondence between the primitive variable interpolations for calculating fluxes in conservative finite-volume discretizations and stencils of the discretized derivatives in the nonconservative formulation has been established. Based on this correspondence, one can arrive at a conservative discretization which is very efficiently solved with a nonconservative relaxation scheme and this is demonstrated for conservative discretization of the quasi one-dimensional Euler equations. Formulations for both staggered and collocated grid arrangements are considered and extensions of the general procedure to multiple dimensions are discussed.

Diskin, Boris↗

NASA NTRS2012

Adaptive Aft Signature Shaping of a Low-Boom Supersonic Aircraft Using Off-Body Pressures

The design and optimization of a low-boom supersonic aircraft using the state-of-the- art o -body aerodynamics and sonic boom analysis has long been a challenging problem. The focus of this paper is to demonstrate an e ective geometry parameterization scheme and a numerical optimization approach for the aft shaping of a low-boom supersonic aircraft using o -body pressure calculations. A gradient-based numerical optimization algorithm that models the objective and constraints as response surface equations is used to drive the aft ground signature toward a ramp shape. The design objective is the minimization of the variation between the ground signature and the target signature subject to several geometric and signature constraints. The target signature is computed by using a least-squares regression of the aft portion of the ground signature. The parameterization and the deformation of the geometry is performed with a NASA in- house shaping tool. The optimization algorithm uses the shaping tool to drive the geometric deformation of a horizontal tail with a parameterization scheme that consists of seven camber design variables and an additional design variable that describes the spanwise location of the midspan section. The demonstration cases show that numerical optimization using the state-of-the-art o -body aerodynamic calculations is not only feasible and repeatable but also allows the exploration of complex design spaces for which a knowledge-based design method becomes less effective.

Ordaz, Irian↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk Model for EM Decision Support Toolsets

The Government Office of Accountability (GAO) has published several reports identifying the need for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) to address mounting costs for DoE's cleanup program. DOEEM could greatly benefit from independent decision tool-sets/models that would allow them to evaluate options and inform business decision at the enterprise level considering site-specific life cycle costs and system plans. Program goals: Develop a tool-set that enables EM to independently evaluate alternatives, assess outcomes from different contracting strategies, and inform critical decisions for the enterprise. Project goals: Adaption of a Risk Model for integration with complimentary tool-sets for project level decision making. Operational Events: Discrete event model that evaluates operational variables (e.g. capacity, throughput, maintenance constraints) and identify bottlenecks. Identifying and Bounding Project Risk: Identify risks that impact confidence in meeting goals (e.g. production). Life cycle Cost: Evaluate impacts of staffing levels, inventory, and capital investments on life cycle costs. Methods and approach: Monte Carlo Analysis is being executed to generate results: Input derives from Risk Register Data; Tied to Projected and Target Schedules; Incorporates float duration within the model. Assumes associated risk mitigation actions being completed within a timeline of five fiscal years. Metrics include: Confidence in Meeting Production Goal; Confidence in Safety Standards; Confidence in Continuous Operation; Other Metrics can be added as appropriate regarding specific site needs. The adapted risk model can be used as a stand alone decision tool or can be integrated complementary tool-sets (i.e. process and cost models) for project-specific decisions. These support tool-sets can then be integrated with others for site- and complex- level evaluations. Future work includes designing an adaptable and modular framework that would allow integration of multiple tool-sets for holistic and/or targeted evaluation of alternative strategies for decision making that could lead to risk and cost reduction across the enterprise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2018

DWT-Based Aggregated Load Modeling and Evaluation for Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulation on Distribution Feeders

This paper presents an extension of a previously reported discrete wavelet transform (DWT) based load modeling methodology which targets at modeling time-series load profiles to enable the more effective and realistic quasi-static time-series simulation of distribution feeders. The time-series load model is composed of two major parts: 1) The low-resolution field-measured load data which usually have a resolution of 30 or 15 min., 2) The high-resolution load variability model data extracted from the established variability database which can have resolution up to 1 sec. A load aggregation methodology is developed to aggregate the load profiles so that load profiles at different transformer ratings can be effectively modeled. Validation, evaluation, and analysis of the developed load modeling approach has been performed on the IEEE-123 feeder and an actual utility feeder from California. The analysis completed on the two feeders have demonstrated the effectiveness and revealed the value of the developed model for distribution feeder quasi-static time-series simulation at high temporal resolution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-F-BRD-10: Improving Plan Delivery Efficiency of Intensity Modulated Proton Plans with Prioritized Optimization

Purpose: To integrate treatment delivery time into plan optimization in spot scanning intensity modulated proton therapy. Utilizing a dedicated research treatment planning system we present an optimization approach to explore the trade-off between the correlated parameters treatment time and plan quality on an astrocytoma patient case. Methods: The planning system is based on prioritized optimization, a stepwise approach of implementing clinical goals. After each optimization step, dosimetric achievements are turned into hard constraints to maintain the achieved plan quality. Prior achievements can be violated by a so-called slip-factor which allows to study possible trade-offs of conflicting goals. Plan quality is obtained in the first two steps, while the third step optimizes delivery efficiency by working on the spot weight distribution via four alternative Methods: elimination of low weighted spots (1), elimination of spots hardly contributing to PTV dose, followed by reoptimization of the resulting smaller optimization problem (2), reduction of spot weights variance within each energy layer (3), and reduction of the overall spot weight sum (4). Treatment times were calculated assuming either constant or variable beam current depending on the lowest spot weight. Results: Delivery efficiency can be improved remarkably without influencing the plan quality. Absolute time savings depend on the utilized method and facility properties. By varying slip-factor and spot reduction limits, a border of worsening quality is detectable for all methods.Deleting low weighted spots by 10% results in a noticeable decrease in minimum target dose. Further reduction results in more heterogeneous dose distributions and insufficient coverage. Option 2 showed constant plan quality for spot reductions of more than 10%. Conclusion: Including treatment time optimization as a final step into prioritized optimization allows for more efficient treatment plans by redistributing the spot patterns without compromising plan quality, which has to remain the main intent of radiotherapy treatment. The authors report grants from German Research Foundation (DFG) during the conduct of the study.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Threshold magnitudes for a multichannel correlation detector in background seismicity

Colocated explosive sources often produce correlated seismic waveforms. Multichannel correlation detectors identify these signals by scanning template waveforms recorded from known reference events against "target" data to find similar waveforms. This screening problem is challenged at thresholds required to monitor smaller explosions, often because non-target signals falsely trigger such detectors. Therefore, it is generally unclear what thresholds will reliably identify a target explosion while screening non-target background seismicity. Here, we estimate threshold magnitudes for hypothetical explosions located at the North Korean nuclear test site over six months of 2010, by processing International Monitoring System (IMS) array data with a multichannel waveform correlation detector. Our method (1) accounts for low amplitude background seismicity that falsely triggers correlation detectors but is unidentifiable with conventional power beams, (2) adapts to diurnally variable noise levels and (3) uses source-receiver reciprocity concepts to estimate thresholds for explosions spatially separated from the template source. Furthermore, we find that underground explosions with body wave magnitudes m b = 1.66 are detectable at the IMS array USRK with probability 0.99, when using template waveforms consisting only of P -waves, without false alarms. We conservatively find that these thresholds also increase by up to a magnitude unit for sources located 4 km or more from the Feb.12, 2013 announced nuclear test.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Luminous and Highly Variable Gamma-Ray Flare Following the 2017 Periastron of PSR B1259–63/LS 2883

Three periastron passages of the PSR B1259-63/LS 2883 binary system, consisting of a 48 ms rotation-powered pulsar and a Be star, have been observed by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope, in 2010, 2014, and 2017. During the most recent periastron passage, sustained low-level gamma-ray emission was observed over a ~3-week-long interval immediately after periastron, which was followed by an interval of no emission. Sporadic flares were detected starting 40 days post-periastron and lasted approximately 50 days, during which the emission displayed significant spectral curvature, variability on timescales as short as 1.5 minutes, and peak flux levels well in excess of the pulsar spin-down power. By contrast, during the 2010 and 2014 periastron passages, significant gamma-ray emission was not observed with the LAT until 30 and 32 days post-periastron, respectively. The previous flares did not exhibit spectral curvature, showed no short term variability, and did not exceed the pulsar spin-down power. The high flux and short timescales observed in 2017 suggest significant beaming of the emission is required and constrain the size of the emission region. Finally, the flares occur long enough after periastron that the neutron star should already have passed through the extended disk-like outflow, thus constraining options for target material and seed photon sources for inverse Compton models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Variable-Energy Ion Beams For Modification Of Surfaces

Beam of low-energy negative oxygen ions used to grow layer of silicon dioxide on silicon. Beam unique both in purity, contains no molecular oxygen or other charged species, and in low energy, which is insufficient to damage silicon by physically displacing atoms. Low-energy growth accomplished with help of ion-beam apparatus. Directs electrons into crosswise stream of gas, generating stream of negative ions. Pair of charged plates separates ions from accompanying electrons and diverts ion beam to target - silicon substrate. Diameter of beam at target 0.5 to 0.75 cm. Promises useful device to study oxidation of semiconductors and, in certain applications, to replace conventional oxidation processes.

Chutjian, Ara↗

NASA NTRS1999

Angular and Seasonal Variation of Spectral Surface Reflectance Ratios: Implications for the Remote Sensing of Aerosol over Land

We obtain valuable information on the angular and seasonal variability of surface reflectance using a hand-held spectrometer from a light aircraft. The data is used to test a procedure that allows us to estimate visible surface reflectance from the longer wavelength 2.1 micrometer channel (mid-IR). Estimating or avoiding surface reflectance in the visible is a vital first step in most algorithms that retrieve aerosol optical thickness over land targets. The data indicate that specular reflection found when viewing targets from the forward direction can severely corrupt the relationships between the visible and 2.1 micrometer reflectance that were derived from nadir data. There is a month by month variation in the ratios between the visible and the mid-IR, weakly correlated to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). If specular reflection is not avoided, the errors resulting from estimating surface reflectance from the mid-IR exceed the acceptable limit of DELTA-rho approximately 0.01 in roughly 40% of the cases, using the current algorithm. This is reduced to 25% of the cases if specular reflection is avoided. An alternative method that uses path radiance rather than explicitly estimating visible surface reflectance results in similar errors. The two methods have different strengths and weaknesses that require further study.

Remer, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Effects of normal aging on visuo-motor plasticity

Normal aging is associated with declines in neurologic function. Uncompensated visual and vestibular problems may have dire consequences including dangerous falls. Visuo-motor plasticity is a form of behavioral neural plasticity, which is important in the process of adapting to visual or vestibular alteration, including those changes due to pathology, pharmacotherapy, surgery or even entry into microgravity or an underwater environment. To determine the effects of aging on visuo-motor plasticity, we chose the simple and easily measured paradigm of visual-motor rearrangement created by using visual displacement prisms while throwing small balls at a target. Subjects threw balls before, during and after wearing a set of prisms which displace the visual scene by twenty degrees to the right. Data obtained during adaptation were modeled using multilevel modeling techniques for 73 subjects, aged 20 to 80 years. We found no statistically significant difference in measures of visuo-motor plasticity with advancing age. Further studies are underway examining variable practice training as a potential mechanism for enhancing this form of behavioral neural plasticity.

Clinical Trial↗

DOE OSTI2018

DWT-Based Aggregated Load Modeling and Evaluation for Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulation on Distribution Feeders: Preprint

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identifying RR Lyrae Variable Stars in Six Years of the Dark Energy Survey

We present a search for RR Lyrae stars using the full six-year data set from the Dark Energy Survey covering ∼5000 deg2 of the southern sky. Using a multistage multivariate classification and light-curve template-fitting scheme, we identify RR Lyrae candidates with a median of 35 observations per candidate. We detect 6971 RR Lyrae candidates out to ∼335 kpc, and we estimate that our sample is >70% complete at ∼150 kpc. We find excellent agreement with other wide-area RR Lyrae catalogs and RR Lyrae studies targeting the Magellanic Clouds and other Milky Way satellite galaxies. We fit the smooth stellar halo density profile using a broken-power-law model with fixed halo flattening (q = 0.7), and we find strong evidence for a break at with an inner slope of and an outer slope of . We use our catalog to perform a search for Milky Way satellite galaxies with large sizes and low luminosities. Using a set of simulated satellite galaxies, we find that our RR Lyrae-based search is more sensitive than those using resolved stellar populations in the regime of large (r h ≳ 500 pc), low-surface-brightness dwarf galaxies. A blind search for large, diffuse satellites yields three candidate substructures. The first can be confidently associated with the dwarf galaxy Eridanus II. The second has a distance and proper motion similar to the ultrafaint dwarf galaxy Tucana II but is separated by ∼5 deg. The third is close in projection to the globular cluster NGC 1851 but is ∼10 kpc more distant and appears to differ in proper motion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Speed Planner for Automated Vehicles: A Framework for Lagrangian Variable Speed Limit in Mixed-Autonomy Traffic

Here, this article presents a novel hierarchical speed planning framework for variable speed limits in mixed-autonomy traffic environments, leveraging server-side macroscopic control and vehicle-side microscopic execution. The framework integrates real-time traffic state estimation (TSE) and reinforcement learning (RL)-based control to mitigate congestion and improve traffic flow. A TSE enhancement module combines macroscopic data from sources like INRIX with high-resolution observations from connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), enabling predictive modeling to address latency and noise. The target speed design module employs kernel smoothing and a buffer zone strategy to optimize traffic density and flow around bottlenecks. The proposed system was validated in the largest open-road test to date with 100 CAVs, demonstrating an overall 8% traffic density decrease, with a specific decrease of 7% upstream, 10% downstream, and a 52% decrease during the congestion formation phase at bottlenecks.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2014

Performance of large electron energy filter in large volume plasma device

This paper describes an in-house designed large Electron Energy Filter (EEF) utilized in the Large Volume Plasma Device (LVPD) [S. K. Mattoo, V. P. Anita, L. M. Awasthi, and G. Ravi, Rev. Sci. Instrum. 72, 3864 (2001)] to secure objectives of (a) removing the presence of remnant primary ionizing energetic electrons and the non-thermal electrons, (b) introducing a radial gradient in plasma electron temperature without greatly affecting the radial profile of plasma density, and (c) providing a control on the scale length of gradient in electron temperature. A set of 19 independent coils of EEF make a variable aspect ratio, rectangular solenoid producing a magnetic field (B{sub x}) of 100 G along its axis and transverse to the ambient axial field (B{sub z} ∼ 6.2 G) of LVPD, when all its coils are used. Outside the EEF, magnetic field reduces rapidly to 1 G at a distance of 20 cm from the center of the solenoid on either side of target and source plasma. The EEF divides LVPD plasma into three distinct regions of source, EEF and target plasma. We report that the target plasma (n{sub e} ∼ 2 × 10{sup 11} cm{sup −3} and T{sub e} ∼ 2 eV) has no detectable energetic electrons and the radial gradients in its electron temperature can be established with scale length between 50 and 600 cm by controlling EEF magnetic field. Our observations reveal that the role of the EEF magnetic field is manifested by the energy dependence of transverse electron transport and enhanced transport caused by the plasma turbulence in the EEF plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

A SEARCH FOR RAPIDLY SPINNING PULSARS AND FAST TRANSIENTS IN UNIDENTIFIED RADIO SOURCES WITH THE NRAO 43 METER TELESCOPE

We have searched 75 unidentified radio sources selected from the NRAO VLA Sky Survey catalog for the presence of rapidly spinning pulsars and short, dispersed radio bursts. The sources are radio bright, have no identifications or optical source coincidences, are more than 5% linearly polarized, and are spatially unresolved in the catalog. If these sources are fast-spinning pulsars (e.g., sub-millisecond pulsars), previous large-scale pulsar surveys may have missed detection due to instrumental and computational limitations, eclipsing effects, or diffractive scintillation. The discovery of a sub-millisecond pulsar would significantly constrain the neutron star equation of state and would have implications for models predicting a rapid slowdown of highly recycled X-ray pulsars to millisecond periods from, e.g., accretion disk decoupling. These same sources were previously searched unsuccessfully for pulsations at 610 MHz with the Lovell Telescope at Jodrell Bank. This new search was conducted at a different epoch with a new 800 MHz backend on the NRAO 43 m Telescope at a center frequency of 1200 MHz. Our search was sensitive to sub-millisecond pulsars in highly accelerated binary systems and to short transient pulses. No periodic or transient signals were detected from any of the target sources. We conclude that diffractive scintillation, dispersive smearing, and binary acceleration are unlikely to have prevented detection of the large majority of the sources if they are pulsars, though we cannot rule out eclipsing, nulling or intermittent emission, or radio interference as possible factors for some non-detections. Other (speculative) possibilities for what these sources might include radio-emitting magnetic cataclysmic variables or older pulsars with aligned magnetic and spin axes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗