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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative methods and modeling to assess COVID–19–interrupted in vivo pharmacokinetic bioequivalence studies with two reference batches

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has presented unprecedented challenges to the generic drug development, including interruptions in bioequivalence (BE) studies. Per guidance published by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) during the COVID-19 public health emergency, any protocol changes or alternative statistical analysis plan for COVID-19-interrupted BE study should be accompanied with adequate justifications and not lead to biased equivalence determination. In this study, we used a modeling and simulation approach to assess the potential impact of study outcomes when two different batches of a Reference Standard (RS) were to be used in an in vivo pharmacokinetic BE study due to the RS expiration during the COVID-19 pandemic. Simulations were performed with hypothetical drugs under two scenarios: (1) uninterrupted study using a single batch of an RS, and (2) interrupted study using two batches of an RS. The acceptability of BE outcomes was evaluated by comparing the results obtained from interrupted studies with those from uninterrupted studies. The simulation results demonstrated that using a conventional statistical approach to evaluate BE for COVID-19-interrupted studies may be acceptable based on the pooled data from two batches. An alternative statistical method which includes a “batch” effect to the mixed effects model may be used when a significant “batch” effect was found in interrupted four-way crossover studies. However, such alternative method is not applicable for interrupted two-way crossover studies. Overall, the simulated scenarios are only for demonstration purpose, the acceptability of BE outcomes for the COVID19-interrupted studies could be case-specific.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

One of the most promising methods to test the representation of cloud processes used in climate models is to use observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes, and they can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems (size about 2-200 km). The CRMs also allow explicit interaction between out-going longwave (cooling) and in-coming solar (heating) radiation with clouds. Observations can provide the initial conditions and validation for CRM results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model, a CRM, has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades. The GCE model has been used to understand the following: 1) water and energy cycles and their roles in the tropical climate system; 2) the vertical redistribution of ozone and trace constituents by individual clouds and well organized convective systems over various spatial scales; 3) the relationship between the vertical distribution of latent heating (phase change of water) and the large-scale (pre-storm) environment; 4) the validity of assumptions used in the representation of cloud processes in climate and global circulation models; and 5) the representation of cloud microphysical processes and their interaction with radiative forcing over tropical and midlatitude regions. Four-dimensional cloud and latent heating fields simulated from the GCE model have been provided to the TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) to develop and improve algorithms for retrieving rainfall and latent heating rates for TRMM and the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS). More than 90 referred papers using the GCE model have been published in the last two decades. Also, more than 10 national and international universities are currently using the GCE model for research and teaching. In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1) ice microphysics, (2) longwave and shortwave radiative transfer processes, (3) land surface processes, (4) ocean surface fluxes and (5) ocean mixed layer processes are presented. The performance of these new GCE improvements will be examined. Observations are used for model validation.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2005

Mapping From an Instrumented Glove to a Robot Hand

An algorithm has been developed to solve the problem of mapping from (1) a glove instrumented with joint-angle sensors to (2) an anthropomorphic robot hand. Such a mapping is needed to generate control signals to make the robot hand mimic the configuration of the hand of a human attempting to control the robot. The mapping problem is complicated by uncertainties in sensor locations caused by variations in sizes and shapes of hands and variations in the fit of the glove. The present mapping algorithm is robust in the face of these uncertainties, largely because it includes a calibration sub-algorithm that inherently adapts the mapping to the specific hand and glove, without need for measuring the hand and without regard for goodness of fit. The algorithm utilizes a forward-kinematics model of the glove derived from documentation provided by the manufacturer of the glove. In this case, forward-kinematics model signifies a mathematical model of the glove fingertip positions as functions of the sensor readings. More specifically, given the sensor readings, the forward-kinematics model calculates the glove fingertip positions in a Cartesian reference frame nominally attached to the palm. The algorithm also utilizes an inverse-kinematics model of the robot hand. In this case, inverse-kinematics model signifies a mathematical model of the robot finger-joint angles as functions of the robot fingertip positions. Again, more specifically, the inverse-kinematics model calculates the finger-joint commands needed to place the fingertips at specified positions in a Cartesian reference frame that is attached to the palm of the robot hand and that nominally corresponds to the Cartesian reference frame attached to the palm of the glove. Initially, because of the aforementioned uncertainties, the glove fingertip positions calculated by the forwardkinematics model in the glove Cartesian reference frame cannot be expected to match the robot fingertip positions in the robot-hand Cartesian reference frame. A calibration must be performed to make the glove and robot-hand fingertip positions correspond more precisely. The calibration procedure involves a few simple hand poses designed to provide well-defined fingertip positions. One of the poses is a fist. In each of the other poses, a finger touches the thumb. The calibration subalgorithm uses the sensor readings from these poses to modify the kinematical models to make the two sets of fingertip positions agree more closely.

Goza, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1993

Temporal changes in endmember abundances, liquid water and water vapor over vegetation at Jasper Ridge

Imaging spectrometry offers a new way of deriving ecological information about vegetation communities from remote sensing. Applications include derivation of canopy chemistry, measurement of column atmospheric water vapor and liquid water, improved detectability of materials, more accurate estimation of green vegetation cover and discrimination of spectrally distinct green leaf, non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV: litter, wood, bark, etc.) and shade spectra associated with different vegetation communities. Much of our emphasis has been on interpreting Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometry (AVIRIS) data spectral mixtures. Two approaches have been used, simple models, where the data are treated as a mixture of 3 to 4 laboratory/field measured spectra, known as reference endmembers (EM's), applied uniformly to the whole image, to more complex models where both the number of EM's and the types of EM's vary on a per-pixel basis. Where simple models are applied, materials, such as NPV, which are spectrally similar to soils, can be discriminated on the basis of residual spectra. One key aspect is that the data are calibrated to reflectance and modeled as mixtures of reference EM's, permitting temporal comparison of EM fractions, independent of scene location or data type. In previous studies the calibration was performed using a modified-empirical line calibration, assuming a uniform atmosphere across the scene. In this study, a Modtran-based calibration approach was used to map liquid water and atmospheric water vapor and retrieve surface reflectance from three AVIRIS scenes acquired in 1992 over the Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve. The data were acquired on June 2nd, September 4th and October 6th. Reflectance images were analyzed as spectral mixtures of reference EM's using a simple 4 EM model. Atmospheric water vapor derived from Modtran was compared to elevation, and community type. Liquid water was compare to the abundance of NPV, Shade and Green Vegetation (VG) for select sites to determine whether a relationship existed, and under what conditions the relationship broke down. Temporal trends in endmember fractions, liquid water and atmospheric water vapor were investigated also. The combination of spectral mixture analysis and the Modtran based atmospheric/liquid water models was used to develop a unique vegetation community description.

Roberts, Dar A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

gcm_eval (Global Climate Model Evaluation) [SWR-24-37]

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex as our changing climate continues to affect the weather we experience which in turn drives changes in the ever increasing share of renewable energy generation and energy demand. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and often subjective process. There is no single perfect climate model or dataset for all applications. In this repository, we include software and the corresponding assessments of various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), evaluating their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparing of their future projections of climate change. We focus on variables that directly affect the energy system including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this repository is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and datasets in subsequent work.

Buster, Grant↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Integrated Thermal Fluids Modeling Capability for MSRs

The DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program supports a full range of computational thermal fluids analysis capabilities and code developments for a broad class of light-water and advanced reactor concepts. The research and development approach under thermal fluids technical area synergistically combines three length and time scales in a hierarchal multi-scale approach. To demonstrate the feasibility and capabilities of a multi-scale thermal fluids capability using these codes, a key joint effort has been pursued to develop an integrated system-and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability with the MOOSE-based codes, through integration of SAM and Pronghorn, both based on the MOOSE framework. This report summarizes the progress in developing an integrated system- and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability based on SAM and Pronghorn for molten salt reactors (MSRs), which gained significant interest in recently years. Two coupling approaches were studied, i.e. separate domain or domain-segregated coupling approach and the domain-overlapping approach. A series of coupled multi-physics models have been developed for a common reference molten salt fast reactor (MSFR) concept, ranging from standalone SAM system model to integrated SAM-Pronghorn-Griffin models. Both the steady state and the transient simulations are performed to the state-of-the-art simulation capabilities of NEAMS software suite in MSFR system applications. This report also covers further development and testing of the gas transport model in SAM for MSR modeling support. The presence of noncondensable gas in MSR systems would have strong impacts on fission gas removal and transport of noble metals throughout the system. Fission products removed through the off-gas system can also impact reactivity and can act as an additional point of heat removal. To ensure that the gas transport model is adequately tested, the supported modeling capabilities and features of SAM were identified, and a suite of tests were developed to test the model for each identified feature. Validation and UQ testing were also performed for the model and demonstrated that the buoyancy term, which was originally developed using non-salt/helium gas experimental data, can capture the experimental gas bubble velocity and diameter to within experimental and code uncertainty. An existing MSRE model was also modified in this work to include the gas transport model and to demonstrate the gas model behavior for realistic conditions of interest.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ground Heat Flux Reconstruction Using Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Machinery and Surrogate Modeling

Ground heat flux (G 0 ) is a key component of the land-surface energy balance of high-latitude regions. Despite its crucial role in controlling permafrost degradation due to global warming, G 0 is sparsely measured and not well represented in the outputs of global scale model simulation. In this study, an analytical heat transfer model is tested to reconstruct G 0 across seasons using soil temperature series from field measurements, Global Climate Model, and climate reanalysis outputs. The probability density functions of ground heat flux and of model parameters are inferred using available G 0 data (measured or modeled) for snow-free period as a reference. When observed G 0 is not available, a numerical model is applied using estimates of surface heat flux (dependent on parameters) as the top boundary condition. These estimates (and thus the corresponding parameters) are verified by comparing the distributions of simulated and measured soil temperature at several depths. Aided by state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, the developed G 0 reconstruction approach provides novel means for assessing the probabilistic structure of the ground heat flux for regional permafrost change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Reference Governor for Plasma-Shape Control in Tokamaks

Tokamaks are torus-shaped devices where a high-temperature, ionized gas (i.e. a plasma) is confined by means of helical magnetic fields. The ultimate goal of tokamaks is producing net electrical energy by means of nuclear-fusion reactions within the plasma. The shape of the plasma inside the tokamak is closely related with its confinement characteristics and, therefore, with the produced fusion power. In order to achieve and maintain plasma shapes that maximize the fusion yield, feedback controllers have been successfully developed during the years. However, machine-protection and plasma-stability requirements impose hard constraints on the plasma-shape targets that can be safely achieved by a feedback controller. In this work, a reference governor is proposed to provide, in real time, plasma-shape targets that fulfill the aforementioned safety requirements. The reference governor calculates such plasma-shape targets in response to changes in the state of the closed-loop system, as well as disturbances in the plasma energy and current. Here, the reference-governor design is based on a dynamical model of the plasma electromagnetic response. Simulation tests of the reference governor have been carried out for different plasma scenarios in the DIII-D tokamak to emulate realistic cases where safety may be compromised.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting High Energy Arcing Fault Zones of Influence for Aluminum Using an Arc Flash Modeling Approach: Evaluation of a model bias, uncertainty, parameter sensitivity and zone of influence estimation

This report documents the development of an arc flash hazard model to calculate the incident energy and zone of influence from high energy arcing faults involving aluminum. The NRC has identified the potential for (HEAFs) involving aluminum to increase the damage zone beyond what is currently postulated in fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies. To estimate the hazard from HEAFs involving aluminum an arc flash model was developed. Differences between the initial model and nuclear power plant (NPP) fire PRA scenarios were identified. Modification of the initial model established from existing literature and test data was used to minimize these differences. The developed model was evaluated against NRC datasets to understand the model prediction and relative uncertainties. Finally, a range of fire PRA zone of influences (ZOI) were developed based on the developed model, target fragility estimates and update HEAF PRA methodology. The results were developed to support an NRC LIC-504 evaluation in tandem with other modeling efforts. The report documents the effort and provides a reference for any future advancements in arc flash modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Block Island Noise Modeling Data

Noise propagation near Block Island was simulated to assess environmental impacts of impact pile driving during wind turbine construction. Computational models complement field-recorded acoustic data, providing insights into sound attenuation, spectral variability, and propagation dynamics. The dataset includes: 1. Propagation Models: Simulated underwater sound fields documenting sound pressure and directional variability across frequency bands and distances. 2. Spectral Analysis (LTSA): Long-term averages and processed outputs calculating acoustic intensity over time. 3. Visualization Files: Graphs, 2D/3D simulation results, and reference calculations used in sound modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2010

Methods for Estimating Environmental Effects and Constraints on NexGen: High Density Case Study

This document provides a summary of the current methods developed by Metron Aviation for the estimate of environmental effects and constraints on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This body of work incorporates many of the key elements necessary to achieve such an estimate. Each section contains the background and motivation for the technical elements of the work, a description of the methods used, and possible next steps. The current methods described in this document were selected in an attempt to provide a good balance between accuracy and fairly rapid turn around times to best advance Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) System Modeling and Analysis Division (SMAD) objectives while also supporting the needs of the JPDO Environmental Working Group (EWG). In particular this document describes methods applied to support the High Density (HD) Case Study performed during the spring of 2008. A reference day (in 2006) is modeled to describe current system capabilities while the future demand is applied to multiple alternatives to analyze system performance. The major variables in the alternatives are operational/procedural capabilities for airport, terminal, and en route airspace along with projected improvements to airframe, engine and navigational equipment.

Augustine, S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

DECOVALEX-2023, Task F Specification, Revision 8

This report is the revised (Revision 8) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation. Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both of the reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F Specification (Rev. 9)

This report is the revised (Revision 9) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F Specification (Revision 10)

This report is the revised (Revision 10) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Full Reynolds Stress Turbulence Models in FUN3D for Axisymmetric Jet Flow

Two full seven-equation turbulence models available in the FUN3D code are evaluated for their ability to improve the computation of challenging mixing flows encountered in aerospace propulsion. These models are the SSG/LRR and Wilcox full second-moment Reynolds stress models. They solve equations for the six components of the Reynolds stress and a seventh equation for the turbulent length scale. Two standard eddy viscosity models are also evaluated for comparison, the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) one-equation model and the Menter Shear Stress Transport (SST-V) two-equation turbulence model. Flow through an axisymmetric reference nozzle is examined at three flow conditions: subsonic unheated, subsonic heated, and near sonic unheated. Centerline profiles of velocity and turbulent kinetic energy and radial profiles of velocity, turbulent kinetic energy and turbulent stresses are examined. Results showed that the SA model did well at predicting the jet potential core length, but over-mixed the downstream flow, whereas the SST-V model over-predicted the potential core length. The Wilcox-model significantly over-predicted the potential core length and under-predicted the mixing and was not well-suited for the jet flows evaluated, however the SSG/LRR Reynolds stress model did well at predicting the mixing rate and mean velocity for all cases examined.

mixing layers↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Solar Sail Shape Modeling Approach for Attitude Control Design and Analysis

Solar sails operating in the space environment experience deformations in sail shape that result in relatively large disturbance torques which dictate the required performance of the spacecraft attitude control and momentum management systems. These deformations are driven by thermal loads on the booms (due to uneven solar heating), manufacturing and assembly tolerances, and variations in membrane tension. The Solar Cruiser spacecraft utilizes a four-quadrant sail design with four 30-meter length booms and four triangular sail membranes, creating a square sail structure of >1600 m2. Medium-fidelity mesh models were developed based on a characteristic deformed shape. A series of parametric studies were conducted using this shape paradigm to determine worst-case deformed sail shapes which produce bounding disturbance torques. A large database of shapes was produced, and the forces and moments induced by each individual shape were calculated using a Rios-Reyes reduced order generalized sail model [1]. Two were selected as reference worst-case shapes for the Solar Cruiser mission: one which produced the highest pitch/yaw root-sum-squared (RSS) torque, and one which produced the highest roll torque. The results showed that the worst-case shapes at high solar incidence angles induce significantly higher (2-10x) disturbance torques than an ideal, flat-plate sail. Even with considerable safety margins, assuming an ideal sail is unlikely to sufficiently bound the disturbances, which is critical when designing the attitude control system and sizing actuators. Accurate sail shape modeling methodologies should therefore be employed on future solar sail missions. References [1] L. Rios-Reyes and D. J. Scheeres, “Generalized Model for Solar Sails,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 42, Jan. 2005, pp. 182–185, 10.2514/1.9054.

Solar Sail↗