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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2019

RFQAmodel: Random Forest Quality Assessment to identify a predicted protein structure in the correct fold

While template-free protein structure prediction protocols now produce good quality models for many targets, modelling failure remains common. For these methods to be useful it is important that users can both choose the best model from the hundreds to thousands of models that are commonly generated for a target, and determine whether this model is likely to be correct. We have developed Random Forest Quality Assessment (RFQAmodel), which assesses whether models produced by a protein structure prediction pipeline have the correct fold. RFQAmodel uses a combination of existing quality assessment scores with two predicted contact map alignment scores. These alignment scores are able to identify correct models for targets that are not otherwise captured. Our classifier was trained on a large set of protein domains that are structurally diverse and evenly balanced in terms of protein features known to have an effect on modelling success, and then tested on a second set of 244 protein domains with a similar spread of properties. When models for each target in this second set were ranked according to the RFQAmodel score, the highest-ranking model had a high-confidence RFQAmodel score for 67 modelling targets, of which 52 had the correct fold. At the other end of the scale RFQAmodel correctly predicted that for 59 targets the highest-ranked model was incorrect. In comparisons to other methods we found that RFQAmodel is better able to identify correct models for targets where only a few of the models are correct. We found that RFQAmodel achieved a similar performance on the model sets for CASP12 and CASP13 free-modelling targets. Finally, by iteratively generating models and running RFQAmodel until a model is produced that is predicted to be correct with high confidence, we demonstrate how such a protocol can be used to focus computational efforts on difficult modelling targets. RFQAmodel and the accompanying data can be downloaded from http://opig.stats.ox.ac.uk/resources.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Can we use antipredator behavior theory to predict wildlife responses to high-speed vehicles?

Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle scenario. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypotheses and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative predictions on escape distance when parameterized with empirical data from the literature, and (c) evaluating their sensitivity to vehicle approach speed using a simulation approach wherein we assessed model performance based on changes in effect size with variations in the slope of the flight initiation distance (FID) vs. approach speed relationship. The slope of the FID vs. approach speed relationship was then related back to three different behavioral rules animals may rely on to avoid approaching threats: the spatial, temporal, or delayed margin of safety. We used literature on birds for goals (b) and (c). Our review considered the following eight models: the economic escape model, Blumstein’s economic escape model, the optimal escape model, the perceptual limit hypothesis, the visual cue model, the flush early and avoid the rush (FEAR) hypothesis, the looming stimulus hypothesis, and the Bayesian model of escape behavior. We were able to generate quantitative predictions about escape distance with the last five models. However, we were only able to assess sensitivity to vehicle approach speed for the last three models. The FEAR hypothesis is most sensitive to high-speed vehicles when the species follows the spatial (FID remains constant as speed increases) and the temporal margin of safety (FID increases with an increase in speed) rules of escape. The looming stimulus effect hypothesis reached small to intermediate levels of sensitivity to high-speed vehicles when a species follows the delayed margin of safety (FID decreases with an increase in speed). The Bayesian optimal escape model reached intermediate levels of sensitivity to approach speed across all escape rules (spatial, temporal, delayed margins of safety) but only for larger (> 1 kg) species, but was not sensitive to speed for smaller species. Overall, no single antipredator behavior model could characterize all different types of escape responses relative to vehicle approach speed but some models showed some levels of sensitivity for certain rules of escape behavior. We derive some applied applications of our findings by suggesting the estimation of critical vehicle approach speeds for managing populations that are especially susceptible to road mortality. Overall, we recommend that new escape behavior models specifically tailored to high-speeds vehicles should be developed to better predict quantitatively the responses of animals to an increase in the frequency of cars, airplanes, drones, etc. they will face in the next decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Graph-based machine learning improves just-in-time defect prediction

The increasing complexity of today’s software requires the contribution of thousands of developers. This complex collaboration structure makes developers more likely to introduce defect-prone changes that lead to software faults. Determining when these defect-prone changes are introduced has proven challenging, and using traditional machine learning (ML) methods to make these determinations seems to have reached a plateau. In this work, we build contribution graphs consisting of developers and source files to capture the nuanced complexity of changes required to build software. By leveraging these contribution graphs, our research shows the potential of using graph-based ML to improve Just-In-Time (JIT) defect prediction. We hypothesize that features extracted from the contribution graphs may be better predictors of defect-prone changes than intrinsic features derived from software characteristics. We corroborate our hypothesis using graph-based ML for classifying edges that represent defect-prone changes. This new framing of the JIT defect prediction problem leads to remarkably better results. We test our approach on 14 open-source projects and show that our best model can predict whether or not a code change will lead to a defect with an F1 score as high as 77.55% and a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) as high as 53.16%. This represents a 152% higher F1 score and a 3% higher MCC over the state-of-the-art JIT defect prediction. We describe limitations, open challenges, and how this method can be used for operational JIT defect prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Polymer genome–based prediction of gas permeabilities in polymers

Abstract Predicting gas permeabilities of polymers a priori is a long-standing challenge within the membrane research community that has important applications for membrane process design and ultimately widespread adoption of membrane technology. From early attempts based on free volume and cohesive energy to more recent group contribution methods, the ability to predict membrane permeability has improved in terms of accuracy. However, these models usually stay “within the paper”, i.e. limited model details are provided to the wider community such that adoption of these predictive platforms is limited. In this work, we combined an advanced polymer chemical structure fingerprinting method with a large experimental database of gas permeabilities to provide unprecedented prediction precision over a large range of polymer classes. No prior knowledge of the polymer is needed for the prediction other than the repeating unit chemical formula. In addition, we have incorporated this model into the existing Polymer Genome project to make it open to the membrane research community.

Polymer Science↗

DOE OSTI2024

Models, data, and scripts associated with “Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning”

This data package is associated with the publication “Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning’’ submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation (Scheibe et al. 2024). River sediment respiration observations are expensive and labor intensive to obtain and there is no physical model for predicting this quantity. The Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemisty Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) observational data set (Goldman et al.; 2020) is used to train machine learning (ML) models to predict respiration rates at unsampled sites. This repository archives training data, ML models, predictions, and model evaluation results for the purposes of reproducibility of the results in the associated manuscript and community reuse of the ML models trained in this project. One of the key challenges in this work was to find an optimum configuration for machine learning models to work with this feature-rich (i.e. 100+ possible input variables) data set. Here, we used a two-tiered approach to managing the analysis of this complex data set: 1) a stacked ensemble of ML models that can automatically optimize hyperparameters to accelerate the process of model selection and tuning and 2) feature permutation importance to iteratively select the most important features (i.e. inputs) to the ML models. The major elements of this ML workflow are modular, portable, open, and cloud-based, thus making this implementation a potential template for other applications. This data package is associated with the GitHub repository found at Please see the file level metadata (flmd; “sl-archive-whondrs_flmd.csv”) for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. Please see the data dictionary (dd; “sl-archive-whondrs_dd.csv”) for a list of all column headers contained within comma separated value (csv) files in this data package and descriptions for each. The GitHub repository is organized into five top-level directories: (1) “input_data” holds the training data for the ML models; (2) “ml_models” holds machine learning models trained on the data in “input_data”; (3) “scripts” contains data preprocessing and postprocessing scripts and intermediate results specific to this data set that bookend the ML workflow; (4) “examples” contains the visualization of the results in this repository including plotting scripts for the manuscript (e.g., model evaluation, FPI results) and scripts for running predictions with the ML models (i.e., reusing the trained ML models); (5) “output_data” holds the overall results of the ML model on that branch. Each trained ML model resides on its own branch in the repository; this means that inputs and outputs can be different branch-to-branch. Furthermore, depending on the number of features used to train the ML models, the preprocessing and postprocessing scripts, and their intermediate results, can also be different branch-to-branch. The “main-*” branches are meant to be starting points (i.e. trunks) for each model branch (i.e. sprouts). Please see the Branch Navigation section in the top-level README.md in the GitHub repository for more details. There is also one hidden directory “.github/workflows”. This hidden directory contains information for how to run the ML workflow as an end-to-end automated GitHub Action but it is not needed for reusing the ML models archived here. Please the top-level README.md in the GitHub repository for more details on the automation.

13C↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning snow depth predictions at sites in Alaska, Norway, Siberia, Colorado and New Mexico

Temporally continuous snow depth estimates are vital for understanding changing snow patterns in the Arctic and impacts on permafrost. We trained random forest machine learning models to predict snow depth from temperature data recorded at or just below the ground surface. Training data was collected at the Teller 27 Watershed and Kougarok 64 Hillslope during the 2021 - 2022 water year on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska using distributed temperature profiling (DTP) systems. We then applied this model to other sites where ground surface or shallow soil temperature data was available for at least one water year (see Related Datasets). Many of these temperature measurements were collocated with snow depth observations. Ground surface temperature (i.e. snow-ground interface temperature) is easy to measure using small, cheap and easy-to-deploy temperature sensors such as iButtons and TinyTags, and such measurements have previously been used to calculate a variety of snow metrics (e.g. snow onset date). However, this is the first study to estimate snow depth directly from ground surface temperature data. The present dataset contains one *.csv file which includes machine learning snow depth predictions at sites in Alaska, Norway, Siberia, Colorado, and New Mexico and one *.kml file including the locations of sites with snow depth predictions. No training data predictions are included in the *.csv file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification" Willard et al. (2025).

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores the effect of different ensemble construction techniques across different common machine learning (ML) architectures for predictions in unmonitored basins. Modeling was done using long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), temporal convolution network (TCN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The ensemble construction techniques investigated include ensemble by random weight initialization, differing hyperparameters, different random subsets of training data, different subselections of input features, different architectures, and Monte Carlo Dropout. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025).Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code:- data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repositoryData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2025streamensembles,author = {Jared Willard and Charuleka Varadharajan},title = {Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification"},year = {2024},doi = {10.15485/2527393},publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository},url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2527393}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification". 2025. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts from: “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”

This data package includes data and scripts from the manuscript “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”.The study addressed common challenges faced in environmental sensing and modeling, including uncertain input data, missing sensor observations, and high-dimensional datasets with interrelated but redundant variables. Point-scaled meteorological and soil sensor observations were perturbed with noises and missing values, and denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural networks were developed to reconstruct the perturbed data and further predict evapotranspiration. This study concluded that (1) the reconstruction quality of each variable depends on its cross-correlation and alignment to the underlying data structure, (2) uncertainties from the models were overall stronger than those from the data corruption, and (3) there was a tradeoff between reducing bias and reducing variance when evaluating the uncertainty of the machine learning models.This package includes:(1) Four ipython scripts (.ipynb): “DAE_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates DAE neural networks, “DAE_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from the trained DAE models, “ET_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates ET prediction neural networks, and “ET_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from trained ET models.(2) One python file (.py): “methods.py” includes all user-defined functions and python codes used in the ipython scripts.(3) A “sub_models” folder that includes five trained DAE neural networks (in pytorch format, .pt), which could be used to ingest input data before being fed to the downstream ET models in ‘ET_train.ipynb” or ‘ET_predict.ipynb’.(4) Two data files (.csv). Daily meteorological, vegetation, and soil data is in “df_data.csv”, where “df_meta.csv” contains the location and time information of “df_data.csv”. Each row (index) in “df_meta.csv” corresponds to each row in “df_data.csv”. These data files are formatted to follow the data structure requirements and be directly used in the ipython scripts, and they have been shuffled chronologically to train machine learning models. The meteorological and soil data was collected using point sensors between 2019-2023 at(4.a) Three shrub-dominated field sites in East River, Colorado (named “ph1”, “ph2” and “sg5” in “df_meta.csv”, where “ph1” and “ph2” were located at PumpHouse Hillslopes, and “sg5” was at Snodgrass Mountain meadow) and(4.b) One outdoor, mesoscale, and herbaceous-dominated experiment in Berkeley, California (named “tb” in “df_meta.csv”, short for Smartsoils Testbed at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab).- See "df_data_dd.csv" and "df_meta_dd.csv" for variable descriptions and the Methods section for additional data processing steps. See "flmd.csv" and "README.txt" for brief file descriptions.- All ipython scripts and python files are written in and require PYTHON language software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Combinatorial DNA Damage Pairing Model Based on X-Ray-Induced Foci Predicts the Dose and LET Dependence of Cell Death in Human Breast Cells

In contrast to the classic view of static DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) being repaired at the site of damage, we hypothesize that DSBs move and merge with each other over large distances (m). As X-ray dose increases, the probability of having DSB clusters increases as does the probability of misrepair and cell death. Experimental work characterizing the X-ray dose dependence of radiation-induced foci (RIF) in nonmalignant human mammary epithelial cells (MCF10A) is used here to validate a DSB clustering model. We then use the principles of the local effect model (LEM) to predict the yield of DSBs at the submicron level. Two mechanisms for DSB clustering, namely random coalescence of DSBs versus active movement of DSBs into repair domains are compared and tested. Simulations that best predicted both RIF dose dependence and cell survival after X-ray irradiation favored the repair domain hypothesis, suggesting the nucleus is divided into an array of regularly spaced repair domains of ~;;1.55 m sides. Applying the same approach to high-linear energy transfer (LET) ion tracks, we are able to predict experimental RIF/m along tracks with an overall relative error of 12percent, for LET ranging between 30 350 keV/m and for three different ions. Finally, cell death was predicted by assuming an exponential dependence on the total number of DSBs and of all possible combinations of paired DSBs within each simulated RIF. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) predictions for cell survival of MCF10A exposed to high-LET showed an LET dependence that matches previous experimental results for similar cell types. Overall, this work suggests that microdosimetric properties of ion tracks at the submicron level are sufficient to explain both RIF data and survival curves for any LET, similarly to the LEM assumption. Conversely, high-LET death mechanism does not have to infer linear-quadratic dose formalism as done in the LEM. In addition, the size of repair domains derived in our model are based on experimental RIF and are three times larger than the hypothetical LEM voxel used to fit survival curves. Our model is therefore an alternative to previous approaches that provides a testable biological mechanism (i.e., RIF). In addition, we propose that DSB pairing will help develop more accurate alternatives to the linear cancer risk model (LNT) currently used for regulating exposure to very low levels of ionizing radiation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

A robust gene expression-based prognostic risk score predicts overall survival of lung adenocarcinoma patients

Identification of reliable predictive biomarkers and new therapeutic targets is a critical step for significant improvement in patient outcomes. Here, we developed a multi-step bioinformatics analytic strategy to mine large omics and clinical data to build a prognostic scoring system for predicting the overall survival (OS) of lung adenocarcinoma (LuADC) patients. In latter we first identified 1327 significantly and robustly deregulated genes, 600 of which were significantly associated with the OS of LuADC patients. Gene co-expression network analysis revealed the biological functions of these 600 genes in normal lung and LuADCs, which were found to be enriched for cell cycle-related processes, blood vessel development, cell-matrix adhesion and metabolic processes. Finally, we implemented a multiple resampling method combined with Cox regression analysis to identify a 27-gene signature associated with OS, and then created a prognostic scoring system based on this signature. This scoring system robustly predicted OS of LuADC patients in 100 sampling test sets and was further validated in four independent LuADC cohorts. In addition, in comparison to other existing prognostic gene signatures published in the literature, our signature was significantly superior in predicting OS of LuADC patients. In summary, our multiomics and clinical data integration study created a 27-gene prognostic risk score that can predict OS of LuADC patients independent of age, gender and clinical stage. This score could guide therapeutic selection and allow stratification in clinical trials.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable Predictions for Large Scale Structure with SHAMNet

In simulation-based models of the galaxy-halo connection, theoretical predictions for galaxy clustering and lensing are typically made based on Monte Carlo realizations of a mock universe. In this paper, we use Subhalo Abundance Matching (SHAM) as a toy model to introduce an alternative to stochastic predictions based on mock population, demonstrating how to make simulation-based predictions for clustering and lensing that are both exact and differentiable with respect to the parameters of the model. Conventional implementations of SHAM are based on iterative algorithms such as Richardson-Lucy deconvolution; here we use the JAX library for automatic differentiation to train SHAMNet, a neural network that accurately approximates the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SMHM) defined by abundance matching. In our approach to making differentiable predictions of large-scale structure, we map parameterized PDFs onto each simulated halo, and calculate gradients of summary statistics of the galaxy distribution by using autodiff to propagate the gradients of the SMHM through the statistical estimators used to measure one- and two-point functions. Our techniques are quite general, and we conclude with an overview of how they can be applied in tandem with more complex, higher-dimensional models, creating the capability to make differentiable predictions for the multi-wavelength universe of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Cement-Sheath Integrity with Consideration of Initial State of Stress and Thermoporoelastic Effects

In conventional wellbore-integrity analysis, the cement sheath’s initial state of stress and transient thermoporoelastic effects are often neglected. However, the initial state of stress is prerequisite information for accurately predicting the safe operating conditions that prevent a cemented well from being damaged. In addition, transient thermoporoelastic effects can have a profound effect on when damage will occur. Here in this paper, we propose a model that includes these effects to predict the safe operating pressures and temperatures that will prevent cement-sheath failure. For the initial state of stress, we proposed an empirical model using measurements. Subsequent stress changes are evaluated by a fully coupled transient thermoporoelastic model to analyze the mechanical behavior of the cement sheath. We predict the safe operating envelope (SOE) for shear, tensile, and debonding cement-sheath failures caused by pressure and temperature perturbations after the cement sets. Our model predicts that pore pressure is a key factor for cement failure, especially for rapid temperature changes. If the formation is low permeability, the transient pore pressures are amplified, causing the risk of damage to increase. Compared with conventional thermoelastic models, the thermoporoelastic model predicts a smaller SOE when heating the internal casing fluid and a larger envelope when cooling the internal casing fluid. Finally, the heating rate was considered with respect to field applications. The heating rate was also considered, and slower heating/cooling rates can prevent damage to the cement sheath. Finally, the thermoporoelastic model was applied to explain several laboratory and field experiments and achieved good matches.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2014

Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 safety tests

Safety tests were conducted on fourteen fuel compacts from AGR-1, the first irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program, at temperatures ranging from 1600 to 1800°C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton from fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during the safety tests, and the predicted values were compared with experimental results. Preliminary comparisons between PARFUME predictions and post-irradiation examination (PIE) results of the safety tests show different trends in the prediction of the fractional release depending on the species, and it leads to different conclusions regarding the diffusivities used in the modeling of fission product transport in TRISO-coated particles: • For silver, the diffusivity in silicon carbide (SiC) might be over-estimated by a factor of at least 102 to 103 at 1600°C and 1700°C, and at least 10 to 102 at 1800°C. The diffusivity of silver in uranium oxy-carbide (UCO) might also be over-estimated, but the available data are insufficient to allow definitive conclusions to be drawn. • For cesium, the diffusivity in UCO might be over-estimated by a factor of at least 102 to 103 at 1600°C, 105 at 1700°C, and 103 at 1800°C. The diffusivity of cesium in SiC might also over-estimated, by a factor of 10 at 1600°C and 103 at 1700°C, based upon the comparisons between calculated and measured release fractions from intact particles. There is no available estimate at 1800°C since all the compacts heated up at 1800°C contain particles with failed SiC layers whose release dominates the release from intact particles. • For strontium, the diffusivity in SiC might be over-estimated by a factor of 10 to 102 at 1600 and 1700°C, and 102 to 103 at 1800°C. These values might be somewhat over-estimated because the strontium retention during irradiation cannot be assessed a priori, which affects the magnitude of the calculated release during safety testing. The diffusivity of strontium in UCO cannot be derived from these heating tests, but it is assumed to be modeled correctly using the IAEA recommended value for kernel diffusivity. • For krypton, there is no reliable release data for compacts heated up at 1600°C, which includes all the compacts containing only intact particles. At 1700 and 1800°C, comparisons show an over-prediction of the release from compacts containing particles with failed SiC by 1 to 1.5 orders of magnitude. The available data from these heating tests do not allow to determine which of the TRISO-coating’s layers diffusivities are under or over-estimated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Predicting Backdrafting and Spillage for Natural-Draft Gas Combustion Appliances: Validating VENT-II

VENT-II is a computer program designed to provide detailed analysis of natural draft and induced draft combustion appliance vent-systems (i.e., furnace or water heater). This program is capable of predicting house depressurization thresholds that lead to backdrafting and spillage of combustion appliances; however, validation reports of the program being applied for this purpose are not readily available. The purpose of this report is to assess VENT-II’s ability to predict combustion gas spillage events due to house depressurization by comparing VENT-II simulated results with experimental data for four appliance configurations. The results show that VENT-II correctly predicts depressurizations resulting in spillage for natural draft appliances operating in cold and mild outdoor conditions, but not for hot conditions. In the latter case, the predicted depressurizations depend on whether the vent section is defined as part of the vent connector or the common vent when setting up the model. Overall, the VENTII solver requires further investigation before it can be used reliably to predict spillage caused by depressurization over a full year of weather conditions, especially where hot conditions occur.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2015

Collaborative Research. Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations

The purpose of the proposed research was to identify unforced predictable components on decadal time scales, distinguish these components from forced predictable components, and to assess the reliability of model predictions of these components. The question of whether anthropogenic forcing changes decadal predictability, or gives rise to new forms of decadal predictability, also will be

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Predictive Engineering Tools for Injection-Molded Long-Carbon-Fiber Thermoplastic Composites - FY 2016 First Quarterly Report

During the first quarter of FY 2016, the following technical progress has been made toward project milestones: 1) Virginia Tech completed fiber orientation (FO) measurements for the samples taken at Locations A, B, C and D (Figure 1) from the 30wt% LCF/PP and 30wt% LCF/PA66 ribbed and non-ribbed complex parts using Virginia Tech’s established procedure. Virginia Tech delivered to PNNL all the measured fiber orientation data for validating ASMI fiber orientation predictions. 2)Virginia Tech performed fiber length distribution (FLD) measurements for the samples taken at Locations A, B, C and D from these complex parts using Virginia Tech’s established procedure. Virginia also re-assessed previous data and measured fiber length distributions in the corresponding nozzle purging materials and delivered to PNNL all the measured length data for validating ASMI fiber length predictions. 3)Based on measured fiber orientation data, Autodesk identified the parameters of the anisotropic rotary diffusion reduced strain closure (ARD-RSC) model [1] and provided PNNL with the values of these parameters that were used in ASMI analyses of the complex parts. 4) Magna provided Virginia Tech with additional samples cut out from the 30wt% LCF/PP and 30wt% LCF/PA66 ribbed parts (Figure 1) for fiber length and orientation measurements. 5) In discussion with Autodesk, PNNL performed 3D ASMI analyses of the 30wt% LCF/PP and 30wt% LCF/PA66 ribbed and non-ribbed complex parts to predict fiber orientations and length distributions in these parts. The issues observed through the analyses regarding fiber orientation distributions profiles and abnormal length distributions were reported to Autodesk. Autodesk is working to resolve these issues. 6) PNNL completed 3D ASMI analyses of the complex parts and compared predicted fiber orientation results at Locations A, B, and C on the non-ribbed parts, and at Locations A, B, C and D on the ribbed parts with the corresponding measured data. PNNL also evaluated the within-15%-agreement criterion using the principal tensile and flexural moduli computed based on predicted vs. measured fiber orientation results. 7) PNNL developed and discussed with Toyota, Magna and PlastiComp a method to perform weight and cost reduction for making the 30wt% LCF/PA66 ribbed part through comparative three-point bending simulations of this part and of similar parts in steel.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Analysis of CO 2 Exposed Wells to Predict Long Term Leakage through the Development of an Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm

The objective of this project is to develop a computerized statistical model with the Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm (INGA) for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. This object has been accomplished by conducting research in three phases: 1) data mining of CO 2 -explosed wells, 2) INGA computer model development, and 3) evaluation of the predictive performance of the computer model with data from field tests. Data mining was conducted for 510 wells in two CO 2 sequestration projects in the Texas Gulf Coast region. They are the Hasting West field and Oyster Bayou field in the Southern Texas. Missing wellbore integrity data were estimated using an analytical and Finite Element Method (FEM) model. The INGA was first tested for performances of convergence and computing efficiency with the obtained data set of high dimension. It was concluded that the INGA can handle the gathered data set with good accuracy and reasonable computing time after a reduction of dimension with a grouping mechanism. A computerized statistical model with the INGA was then developed based on data pre-processing and grouping. Comprehensive training and testing of the model were carried out to ensure that the model is accurate and efficient enough for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. The Cranfield in the southern Mississippi was select as the test site. Observation wells CFU31F2 and CFU31F3 were used for pressure-testing, formation-logging, and cement-sampling. Tools run in the wells include Isolation Scanner, Slim Cement Mapping Tool (SCMT), Cased Hole Formation Dynamics Tester (CHDT), and Mechanical Sidewall Coring Tool (MSCT). Analyses of the obtained data indicate no leak of CO 2 cross the cap zone while it is evident that the well cement sheath was invaded by the CO 2 from the storage zone. This observation is consistent with the result predicted by the INGA model which indicates the well has a CO 2 leak-safe probability of 72%. This comparison implies that the developed INGA model is valid for future use in predicting well leak probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Extreme Scale Infrasound Inversion and Prediction for Weather Characterization and Acute Event Detection

Accurate and timely weather predictions are critical to many aspects of society with a profound impact on our economy, general well-being, and national security. In particular, our ability to forecast severe weather systems is necessary to avoid injuries and fatalities, but also important to minimize infrastructure damage and maximize mitigation strategies. The weather community has developed a range of sophisticated numerical models that are executed at various spatial and temporal scales in an attempt to issue global, regional, and local forecasts in pseudo real time. The accuracy however depends on the time period of the forecast, the nonlinearities of the dynamics, and the target spatial resolution. Significant uncertainties plague these predictions including errors in initial conditions, material properties, data, and model approximations. To address these shortcomings, a continuous data collection occurs at an effort level that is even larger than the modeling process. It has been demonstrated that the accuracy of the predictions depends on the quality of the data and is independent to a certain extent on the sophistication of the numerical models. Data assimilation has become one of the more critical steps in the overall weather prediction business and consequently substantial improvements in the quality of the data would have transformational benefits. This paper describes the use of infrasound inversion technology, enabled through exascale computing, that could potentially achieve orders of magnitude improvement in data quality and therefore transform weather predictions with significant impact on many aspects of our society.

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