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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗

chimes_calculator

The Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) is a machine-learned interatomic potential targeting chemistry in condensed phase systems. ChIMES models are able to approach quantum-accuracy through a systematically improvable explicitly many-bodied basis comprised of linear combinations of Chebyshev polynomials. Though originally developed as to enable description of organic molecular materials, ChIMES has successfully been applied to systems spanning ambient water to molten carbon, and leveraged as correction for density functional based tight binding simulations. The ChIMES calculator comprises a flexible toolset for evaluating ChIMES interactions (e.g. in simulations, single point calculations, etc). Users have the option of directly imbedding the ChIMES calculator within their codes, or evaluating interactions through the beginner-friendly serial interface, each of which have Python, C++, C, and Fortran API's.

Goldman, Nir↗

Evaluation of CMIP6 Streamflow in the Arctic

Earth system models (ESMs) serve as the primary basis for projecting future streamflow changes, but they are biased in terms of the their ability to reproduce historical observations of streamflow. Rigorous downscaling and bias-correction procedures, which are time-consuming and introduce uncertainties, are commonly used to address these biases in streamflow or runoff. However, the applicable limits of streamflow projections remain largely untested through direct comparisons with observations. In this work, we compare historical streamflow time series observations with a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ESMs to assess the space and time scales at which each ESM represents historic streamflow observations. We focus our analysis on streamflow across the Arctic given the higher degree of warming experienced over this region, underscoring its importance for understanding the future changes. A series of metrics—volume, seasonality, extreme capturing streamflow variability, drought, and flooding is tested to assess ESM simulation skill for total events and overall distributions. Our results indicate that although improvements are necessary in ESM runoff and streamflow projections, the use of temporal averaging and targeting the best-fit model for comparison to observations when a suite of ESMs is considered can provide robust streamflow projections. Moreover, this work provides a basis for contextualizing the limits of ESM applicability for studies aiming to assess streamflow in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Python Script to Read MCNP6.3 Surface-Source Files

This report provides a Python script to read an MCNP ® surface source file created with the SSW card with SYM = 0 (i.e., the default symmetry treatment). For background: the general format of an MCNP surface-source file is described in; however, that document did not provide coding and/or a tool to interrogate such files. The current format will not be given in this document other than through the record-read statements necessary for the script to function. The reader capability in this report is augmented with the ability to directly write a couple demonstrative outputs: 1. A comma-separated value (CSV) file containing particle phase-space state information and 2. A Matplotlib histogram of the energy distribution of the particles. This report also describes accompanying verification work that shows the script performing as required with MCNP6.2, MCNP6.3, and (expected) MCNP6.4 surface-source files. However, users of the enclosed script must still verify that the script is behaving correctly for their own work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparison of methods to estimate aerosol effective radiative forcings in climate models

Abstract. Uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of climate primarily arises from the unknown contribution of aerosols, which impact radiative fluxes directly and through modifying cloud properties. Climate model simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures but perturbed atmospheric aerosol loadings allow for an estimate of how strongly the planet's radiative energy budget has been perturbed by the increase in aerosols since pre-industrial times. The approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique further decomposes the contributions to the direct forcing due to aerosol scattering and absorption and to the indirect forcing due to aerosol-induced changes in cloud scattering, amount, and absorption, as well as the effects of aerosols on surface albedo. Here we evaluate previously published APRP-derived estimates of aerosol effective radiative forcings from these simulations conducted in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and find that they are biased as a result of two large coding errors that – in most cases – fortuitously compensate. The most notable exception is the direct radiative forcing from absorbing aerosols, which is more than 40 % larger averaged across CMIP6 models in the present study. Correcting these biases eliminates the residuals and leads to better agreement with benchmark estimates derived from double calls to the radiation code. The APRP method – when properly implemented – remains a highly accurate and efficient technique for diagnosing aerosol ERF in cases where double radiation calls are not available, and in all cases it provides quantification of the individual contributors to the ERF that are highly useful but not otherwise available.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the surface brightness and geometric albedo of some Martian areas

High-quality photographs of Mars (red, yellow, green, and blue) are used to analyze the surface, limb, and south-polar-cap brightness of Mars. The surface brightness can be fitted with the Lommel-Seeliger reflection law. For the limb and polar-cap brightness, the method suggested by Lumme (1974) has been used to correct for smearing effects. It is found that the brightness increases noticeably when approaching the limb, that the upper limit to optical thickness of the atmosphere in the blue is 0.16, and that the corresponding single-scattering albedo is 0.55, both with uncertainties of about 15%. Values for the geometric albedo and the phase function (at 37-deg phase angle) are also obtained for both the atmosphere and the ground for a central meridian of 0 deg. The south polar cap in September 1973 was nearly circular, with a radius of about 8 deg (heliocentric longitude of 0 deg) and geometric albedos of 0.68 (red), 0.68 (yellow), 0.60 (green), and 0.53 (blue).

Lumme, K.↗

Phase change energy storage for solar dynamic power systems

This paper presents the results of a transient computer simulation that was developed to study phase change energy storage techniques for Space Station Freedom (SSF) solar dynamic (SD) power systems. Such SD systems may be used in future growth SSF configurations. Two solar dynamic options are considered in this paper: Brayton and Rankine. Model elements consist of a single node receiver and concentrator, and takes into account overall heat engine efficiency and power distribution characteristics. The simulation not only computes the energy stored in the receiver phase change material (PCM), but also the amount of the PCM required for various combinations of load demands and power system mission constraints. For a solar dynamic power system in low earth orbit, the amount of stored PCM energy is calculated by balancing the solar energy input and the energy consumed by the loads corrected by an overall system efficiency. The model assumes an average 75 kW SD power system load profile which is connected to user loads via dedicated power distribution channels. The model then calculates the stored energy in the receiver and subsequently estimates the quantity of PCM necessary to meet peaking and contingency requirements. The model can also be used to conduct trade studies on the performance of SD power systems using different storage materials.

Chiaramonte, F. P.↗

Steering of Frequency Standards by the Use of Linear Quadratic Gaussian Control Theory

Linear quadratic Gaussian control is a technique that uses Kalman filtering to estimate a state vector used for input into a control calculation. A control correction is calculated by minimizing a quadratic cost function that is dependent on both the state vector and the control amount. Different penalties, chosen by the designer, are assessed by the controller as the state vector and control amount vary from given optimal values. With this feature controllers can be designed to force the phase and frequency differences between two standards to zero either more or less aggressively depending on the application. Data will be used to show how using different parameters in the cost function analysis affects the steering and the stability of the frequency standards.

Koppang, Paul↗

Effectiveness of Interaural Delays Alone as Cues During Dynamic Sound Localization

The contribution of interaural time differences (ITDs) to the localization of virtual sound sources with and without head motion was examined. Listeners estimated the apparent azimuth, elevation and distance of virtual sources presented over headphones. Stimuli (3 sec., white noise) were synthesized from minimum-phase representations of nonindividualized head-related transfer functions (HRTFs); binaural magnitude spectra were derived from the minimum phase estimates and ITDs were represented as a pure delay. During dynamic conditions, listeners were encouraged to move their heads; head position was tracked and stimuli were synthesized in real time using a Convolvotron to simulate a stationary external sound source. Two synthesis conditions were tested: (1) both interaural level differences (ILDs) and ITDs correctly correlated with source location and head motion, (2) ITDs correct, no ILDs (flat magnitude spectrum). Head movements reduced azimuth confusions primarily when interaural cues were correctly correlated, although a smaller effect was also seen for ITDs alone. Externalization was generally poor for ITD-only conditions and was enhanced by head motion only for normal HRTFs. Overall the data suggest that, while ITDs alone can provide a significant cue for azimuth, the errors most commonly associated with virtual sources are reduced by location-dependent magnitude cues.

Wenzel, Elizabeth M.↗

Numerical Modeling of Conjugate Heat Transfer in Fluid Network

Fluid network modeling with conjugate heat transfer has many applications in Aerospace engineering. In modeling unsteady flow with heat transfer, it is important to know the variation of wall temperature in time and space to calculate heat transfer between solid to fluid. Since wall temperature is a function of flow, a coupled analysis of temperature of solid and fluid is necessary. In cryogenic applications, modeling of conjugate heat transfer is of great importance to correctly predict boil-off rate in propellant tanks and chill down of transfer lines. In TFAWS 2003, the present author delivered a paper to describe a general-purpose computer program, GFSSP (Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program). GFSSP calculates flow distribution in complex flow circuit for compressible/incompressible, with or without heat transfer or phase change in all real fluids or mixtures. The flow circuit constitutes of fluid nodes and branches. The mass, energy and specie conservation equations are solved at the nodes where as momentum conservation equations are solved at the branches. The proposed paper describes the extension of GFSSP to model conjugate heat transfer. The network also includes solid nodes and conductors in addition to fluid nodes and branches. The energy conservation equations for solid nodes solves to determine the temperatures of the solid nodes simultaneously with all conservation equations governing fluid flow. The numerical scheme accounts for conduction, convection and radiation heat transfer. The paper will also describe the applications of the code to predict chill down of cryogenic transfer line and boil-off rate of cryogenic propellant storage tank.

Majumdar, Alok↗

A new method for operating a continuous flow diffusion chamber to investigate immersion freezing: assessment and performance study

Glaciation in mixed-phase clouds predominately occurs through the immersion freezing mode where ice nucleating particles (INPs) immersed within supercooled droplets induce nucleation of ice. Currently, model representations of this process are a large source of uncertainty in simulating cloud radiative properties, and to constrain these estimates, continuous flow diffusion chamber (CFDC)-style INP devices are commonly used to assess the immersion freezing efficiencies of INPs. In this study, a new approach was explored to operating such an ice chamber that provides maximum activation of particles without droplet breakthrough and correction factor ambiguity to obtain high-quality INP measurements in a manner that has not been demonstrated as possible previously. The conditioning section of the chamber was maintained at ~ –20 °C and water relative humidity (RH w ) ~ 113 % conditions to maximize the droplet activation, and the droplets were supercooled with an independently temperature-controlled nucleation section at a steady cooling rate (0.5 °C min –1 ) to induce the freezing of droplets and evaporation of unfrozen droplets. The performance of the modified ice chamber was evaluated using four INP species: K-feldspar, illite-NX, Argentinian soil dust, and airborne arable dust that had shown ice nucleation over a wide span of supercooled temperatures. Dry dispersed and size-selected K-feldspar particles were generated in the laboratory. Illite-NX and soil dust particles were sampled during the second phase of the Fifth International Ice Nucleation Workshop (FIN-02) campaign, and airborne arable dust particles were sampled from the aerosol inlet located on the rooftop of the laboratory. The measured ice nucleation efficiencies of model aerosols with a surface active site density (n s ) metric were higher, but mostly agreed within one order of magnitude compared to literature results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sulfur Tolerant Subnanometer Fe/Alumina Catalysts for Propane Dehydrogenation

A series of Al 2 O 3 -supported Fe-containing catalysts were synthesized by incipient wetness impregnation. The iron surface density was varied from 1 to 13 Fe atoms/nm 2 spanning submonolayer to above-monolayer coverage. Here, the resulting supported Fe-catalysts were characterized by N 2 physisorption, ex situ X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray pair distribution function (PDF), X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), aberration corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy (AC-STEM) and chemically probed by hydrogen temperature-programmed reduction (H 2 -TPR). The results suggest that over this entire range of loadings, Fe was present as dispersed species, with only a very small fraction of Fe 2 O 3 aggregates, at the highest Fe loading in oxide phase. The in situ sulfidation of Fe/Al 2 O 3 resulted in the formation of a highly active and selective PDH catalyst. The highest activity with 52% propane conversion and ~99% propylene selectivity at 560 °C was obtained for the 6.4 Fe/Al 2 O 3 -S catalyst, suggesting that this is the highest amount of Fe that could be fully dispersed on the support in sulfided form. XRD and AC-STEM indicated the absence of any crystalline iron sulfide aggregates after sulfidation and reaction. H 2 -TPR results indicated that the amount of the reducible Fe sites in the sulfided catalyst remained constant above monolayer coverage, and increasing loading did not increase the number of reducible Fe sites. Consistent with these results, the reactivity per gram of catalyst showed no increase with Fe loading above monolayer coverage, suggesting that additional Fe remains conformal to the alumina surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stability Constants of Lanthanide-nitrate Complexes in Aqueous Solutions: A Theoretical Study

Calculating stability constants for lanthanide--nitrate complexes in aqueous solution is challenging due to the complex free-energy landscapes of the participating species. In this work, we compare cluster-continuum solvation and condensed-phase approaches using universal machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) for determining the stability constants of lanthanide--nitrate complexes in aqueous solutions. Within the cluster--continuum solvation framework at the B3LYP level of theory, reactions involving lanthanide coordination numbers of both 8 and 9 are found to be relevant. After an empirical linear free-energy correction, the cluster--continuum results fall on the same order-of-magnitude scale as the experimental stability constants. By contrast, MACE-MP0 MLIP underestimates lanthanide hydration numbers and gives PMF-derived stability constants with large deviations from experiment, whereas MACE-MATPES-R2SCAN improves both hydration structure and the stability-constant scale but still does not quantitatively reproduce the detailed lanthanide trend. Across both approaches, nitrate binding is best viewed as a labile coordination motif rather than a fixed mono- or bidentate structure, with hydration-shell structure influencing which configurations are favored. Overall, the cluster--continuum calculations provide a practical semi-quantitative baseline for the experimental stability-constant scale, while the explicit-solvent MLIP benchmarks show clear progress from MACE-MP0 to MACE-MATPES-r2SCAN but also highlight the need for lanthanide-targeted training, fine-tuning, or improved long-range and polarization treatments to obtain predictive thermodynamics for complex aqueous lanthanide chemistry.

Dinpajooh, Mohammadhasan↗

Neutrino-assisted early dark energy: theory and cosmology

Abstract The tension between measurements of the Hubble constant obtained at different redshifts may provide a hint of new physics active in the relatively early universe, around the epoch of matter-radiation equality. A leading paradigm to resolve the tension is a period of early dark energy, in which a scalar field contributes a subdominant part of the energy budget of the universe at this time. This scenario faces significant fine-tuning problems which can be ameliorated by a non-trivial coupling of the scalar to the standard model neutrinos. These become non-relativistic close to the time of matter-radiation equality, resulting in an energy injection into the scalar that kick-starts the early dark energy phase, explaining its coincidence with this seemingly unrelated epoch. We present a minimal version of this neutrino-assisted early dark energy model, and perform a detailed analysis of its predictions and theoretical constraints. We consider both particle physics constraints — that the model constitute a well-behaved effective field theory for which the quantum corrections are under control, so that the relevant predictions are within its regime of validity — and the constraints provided by requiring a consistent cosmological evolution from early through to late times. Our work paves the way for testing this scenario using cosmological data sets.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Aberration-corrected STEM imaging of 2D materials: Artifacts and practical applications of threefold astigmatism

High-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (HR-STEM) with spherical aberration correction enables researchers to peer into two-dimensional (2D) materials and correlate the material properties with those of single atoms. The maximum intensity of corrected electron beam is confined in the area having sub-angstrom size. Meanwhile, the residual threefold astigmatism of the electron probe implies a triangular shape distribution of the intensity, whereas its tails overlap and thus interact with several atomic species simultaneously. The result is the resonant modulation of contrast that interferes the determination of phase transition of 2D materials. Here, we theoretically reveal and experimentally determine the origin of resonant modulation of contrast and its unintended impact on violating the power-law dependence of contrast on coordination modes between transition metal and chalcogenide atoms. The finding illuminates the correlation between atomic contrast, spatially inequivalent chalcogenide orientation, and residual threefold astigmatism on determining the atomic structure of emerging 2D materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improved temperature control for measuring the humidity dependence of aerosol optical properties

Aerosols impact climate and cloud formation by their ability to take up water, which leads to changes in their optical properties. To better characterize the interactions of aerosol with water vapor, a humidification section has been added to the Cavity Attenuation Phase-shift Spectrometry (CAPS) instrument. The CAPS is a diode based method that provides simultaneous measurements of both aerosol total optical extinction and scattering in real-time. We are improving the humidity controlled sample line with new temperature controls. The current system suffers from particlelosses and poorly controlled humidity profiles, both of which were corrected for in the systems redesign. This improved wet-CAPS system has been integrated with a dry-CAPS to simultaneously measure the wet and dry aerosol optical properties. The two CAPS monitors were operated in a dry collection mode to ensure there were no biases between the instruments. Initial calibrations and data were collected to test the functionality of the dual CAPS system (wet + dry). The new two channel CAPS system improves our ability to measure the effects of humidity on aerosol optical properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling the Amplfied OSC Experiment at IOTA

Optical Stochastic Cooling (OSC), a beam cooling technique based on Stochastic Cooling, is in the early stages of experimental development. It uses radiation produced by the beam in an undulator magnet (the pickup) to correct the momentum deviation of particles downstream in another undulator (the kicker). The OSC mechanism was recently demonstrated at Fermilabʼs IOTA ring using a passive configuration. However, the cooling rate of OSC can be dramatically increased by first amplifying the undulator radiation before applying the corrective kick. In collaboration with the IOTA experiment, we developed a computational model of the OSC mechanism. This work presents beam‐dynamics simulations of the amplified‐OSC configuration. We implement a model of intrabeam scattering and study the effects on beam equilibrium and diffusion rate as a function of bunch charge. Finally, we investigate the phase‐space dynamics with various coupling configurations between the transverse and longitudinal planes.

Dick, A. J.↗

Theoretical calculation of Martian airmass.

Analysis of spectroscopic observations of Mars requires values of the effective Martian airmass to obtain true abundances. Semi-arbitrary assumptions for the airmass correction have been used in most of the past publications on the subject. We have computed detailed values corresponding to specified slits superimposed on the disk of the planet, giving useful output in the form of curves presenting the average airmass for different regions of the planet and various conditions of planet diameter, seeing and phase angle.

Woodman, J. H.↗