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The Rest-frame Submillimeter Spectrum of High-redshift, Dusty, Star-forming Galaxies from the SPT-SZ Survey

We present the average rest-frame spectrum of the final catalog of dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs) selected from the South Pole Telescope's SPT-SZ survey and measured with Band 3 of the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array. This work builds on the previous average rest-frame spectrum, given in Spilker et al. (2014) for the first 22 sources, and is comprised of a total of 78 sources, normalized by their respective apparent dust masses. The spectrum spans 1.9 < z < 6.9 and covers rest-frame frequencies of 240–800 GHz. Combining this data with low-J CO observations from the Australia Telescope Compact Array, we detect multiple bright line features from 12 CO, [Ci], and H 2 O, as well as fainter molecular transitions from 13 CO, HCN, HCO + , HNC, CN, H 2 O + , and CH. We use these detections, along with limits from other molecules, to characterize the typical properties of the interstellar medium (ISM) for these high-redshift DSFGs. We are able to divide the large sample into subsets in order to explore how the average spectrum changes with various galaxy properties, such as effective dust temperature. We find that systems with hotter dust temperatures exhibit differences in the bright 12 CO emission lines, and contain either warmer and more excited dense gas tracers or larger dense gas reservoirs. These observations will serve as a reference point to studies of the ISM in distant luminous DSFGs (L IR > 10 12 L ⊙ ), and will inform studies of chemical evolution before the peak epoch of star formation at z = 2–3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SQUID Readout of a High-$Q$ Superconducting $LC$ Resonator

We demonstrate the readout of a superconducting $LC$ resonator, with $Q \approx 2 \times 10^{6}$ at approximately 250 kHz, using a dc SQUID followed by a SQUID series-array amplifier readout chain. We find that $Q$ depends on the SQUID flux-bias point, increasing near the shallow-slope point of the SQUID modulation curve and decreasing near the steep-slope point, consistent with the previously observed SQUID damping effects. From this variation, we infer the SQUID effective input impedance. We further infer the effective temperature of the resonator circuit from the resonance peak in the noise spectrum and show that it also depends on the SQUID flux-bias point, suggesting a possible contribution from SQUID back-action noise. This system provides a working prototype for future experiments based on lumped-element resonators with SQUID readout, in particular low-mass axion searches within the DMRadio program.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

Power spectral estimation algorithms

Algorithms to estimate the power spectrum using Maximum Entropy Methods were developed. These algorithms were coded in FORTRAN 77 and were implemented on the VAX 780. The important considerations in this analysis are: (1) resolution, i.e., how close in frequency two spectral components can be spaced and still be identified; (2) dynamic range, i.e., how small a spectral peak can be, relative to the largest, and still be observed in the spectra; and (3) variance, i.e., how accurate the estimate of the spectra is to the actual spectra. The application of the algorithms based on Maximum Entropy Methods to a variety of data shows that these criteria are met quite well. Additional work in this direction would help confirm the findings. All of the software developed was turned over to the technical monitor. A copy of a typical program is included. Some of the actual data and graphs used on this data are also included.

Bhatia, Manjit S.↗

ROSAT all-sky survey observations of X-ray variability in cool giant stars

We have identified 24 active late-type giant stars, including 11 RS CVn systems, with soft X-ray count rates high enough to allow the detection of statistically significant variability on a Roentgen Satellite (ROSAT) orbital timescale (96 minutes) as observed by the Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) during the all-sky survey. Our sensitivity typically lies in the range of 10% - 25%, depending on the source count rate. Comparison is made to the daily, nonflare solar soft X-ray variability as observed by the Solrad satellites during solar minimum in 1969 and solar maximum in 1975. Seven of the 24 stars show significant variability; in two of these cases (HR 3922 and HR 8448) major flares were observed in which the peak count rate is enhanced by at least a factor of 3 above quiescent. While HR 3922 (G5 III) is not (yet) classified as an RS CVn star, its flare is more energetic (3 x 10(exp 31) ergs/s) than previously observed RS CVn flares. The apparently single giant HR 8167 (G8 III) also shows two flares. While one might expect to find an anticorrelation between saturated coronae and variability, we find no evidence of this: the two stars in our sample with the highest ratio of f(sub x)/f(sub v) both show variability. We also point out that Capella (G6 III + F9 III) is one of the stars manifesting variability.

Haisch, Bernhard↗

Comparison of the Gamma-Ray Burst Sensitivity of Different Detectors

Gamma-ray burst detectors are sensitive at different energies, complicating the comparison of the burst populations that they detect. The instrument teams often report their detector sensitivities in their instruments' energy band. I propose that sensitivities be reported its the threshold peak photon flux FT over the 1-1000 keV energy band for a specific spectral shape. The primary spectral parameter is E(sub p), the energy of the maximum E(sup 2)N(sub E) proportional to upsilon f(sub upsilon). Thus F(sub T) vs. E(sub p). E(sub p) is a useful description of a detector's sensitivity. I find that Swift will be marginally more sensitive than BATSE for E(sub p) greater than 100 keV, but significantly more sensitive for E(sub p) less than 100 keV. Because of its small field-of-view and low energy sensitivity, the FREGATE on HETE-2 is surprisingly sensitive. Both the WFC on BeppoSAX and the WXM on HETE-2 are/were sensitive for low E(sub p). As expected, the GBM on GLAST will be less sensitive than BATSE, while EXIST will be significantly more sensitive than Swift. The BeppoSAX GRBM was less sensitive that the WFC, particularly at low E(sub p).

Band, David L.↗

A comparative bear model for immobility-induced osteopenia

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are seeking solutions to the human problem of osteopenia, or immobility-induced bone loss. Bears, during winter dormancy, appear uniquely exempted from the debilitating effects of immobility osteopenia. NIH and ESA, Inc. are creating a large database of metabolic information on human ambulatory and bedrest plasma samples for comparison with metabolic data obtained from bear plasma samples collected in different seasons. The database generated from NASA's HR113 human bedrest study showed a clear difference between plasma samples of ambulatory and immobile subjects through cluster analysis using compounds determined by high performance liquid chromatography with coulometric electrochemical array detection (HPLC-EC). We collected plasma samples from black bears (Ursus americanus) across 4 seasons and from 3 areas and subjected them to similar analysis, with particular attention to compounds that changed significantly in the NASA human study. We found seasonal differences in 28 known compounds and 33 unknown compounds. A final database contained 40 known and 120 unknown peaks that were reliably assayed in all bear and human samples; these were the primary data set for interspecies comparison. Six unidentified compounds changed significantly but differentially in wintering bears and immobile humans. The data are discussed in light of current theories regarding dormancy, starvation, and anabolic metabolism. Work is in progress by ESA Laboratories on a larger database to confirm these findings prior to a chemical isolation and identification effort. This research could lead to new pharmaceuticals or dietary interventions for the treatment of immobility osteopenia.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

Dryness controls temperature-optimized gross primary productivity across vegetation types

Temperature response of gross primary productivity (GPP) is a well-known property of ecosystem, but GPP at the optimum temperature (GPP_T opt ) has not been fully discussed. Our understanding of how GPP_T opt responds to warming and water availability is highly limited. Here, in this study, we analyzed data at 326 globally distributed eddy covariance sites (79°N-37°S), to identify controlling factors of GPP_T opt . Although GPP_T opt was significantly influenced by soil moisture, global solar radiation, mean annual temperature, and vapor pressure deficit in a non-linear pattern (R 2 = 0.47), the direction and magnitude of these climate variables’ effects on GPP_T opt depend on the dryness index (DI), a ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation. The spatial pattern showed that soil moisture did not affect GPP_T opt across energy-limited sites with DI < 1 while dominated GPP_T opt across water-limited sites with DI >1. The temporal pattern showed that GPP_T opt was lowered by warming or low precipitation in water-limited sites while energy-limited sites tended to maintain a stable GPP_T opt regardless of changes in air temperature. Vegetation types in humid climates tended to have higher GPP_T opt and were more likely to benefit from a warmer climate since it was not restricted by water conditions. This study highlights that the response of GPP_T opt to global warming depends on the dryness conditions, which explains the nonlinear control of water and temperature over GPP_T opt . Our finding is essential to realistic prediction of terrestrial carbon uptake under future climate and vegetation conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Kinetic stability of Chapman–Enskog plasmas

In this paper, we investigate the kinetic stability of classical, collisional plasma – that is, plasma in which the mean-free-path $\lambda$ of constituent particles is short compared with the length scale $L$ over which fields and bulk motions in the plasma vary macroscopically, and the collision time is short compared with the evolution time. Fluid equations are typically used to describe such plasmas, since their distribution functions are close to being Maxwellian. The small deviations from the Maxwellian distribution are calculated via the Chapman–Enskog (CE) expansion in $\lambda /L \ll 1$ , and determine macroscopic momentum and heat fluxes in the plasma. Such a calculation is only valid if the underlying CE distribution function is stable at collisionless length scales and/or time scales. We find that at sufficiently high plasma $\beta$ , the CE distribution function can be subject to numerous microinstabilities across a wide range of scales. For a particular form of the CE distribution function arising in strongly magnetised plasma ( viz. plasma in which the Larmor periods of particles are much smaller than collision times), we provide a detailed analytic characterisation of all significant microinstabilities, including peak growth rates and their associated wavenumbers. Of specific note is the discovery of several new microinstabilities, including one at sub-electron-Larmor scales (the ‘whisper instability’) whose growth rate in certain parameter regimes is large compared with other instabilities. Our approach enables us to construct the kinetic stability maps of classical, two-species collisional plasma in terms of $\lambda$ , the electron inertial scale $d_e$ and the plasma $\beta$ . This work is of general consequence in emphasising the fact that high- $\beta$ collisional plasmas can be kinetically unstable; for strongly magnetised CE plasmas, the condition for instability is $\beta \gtrsim L/\lambda$ . In this situation, the determination of transport coefficients via the standard CE approach is not valid.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Whistler Chorus Amplification in the Magnetosphere: The Nonlinear Free‐Electron Laser Model and the Ginzburg‐Landau Equation

We present a novel nonlinear model for whistler-mode chorus amplification based on the free-electron laser (FEL) mechanism. First, we derive the nonlinear collective variable equations for the whistler-electron interaction. Consistent with in situ satellite observations, these equations predict that a small seed wave can undergo exponential growth, reaching a peak of a few hundred picoteslas after a few milliseconds, followed by millisecond timescale amplitude modulations. Next, we show that when one accounts for multiple wave frequencies and wave spatial variations, the amplitude and phase of the whistler wave can be described by the Ginzburg-Landau equation (GLE), providing a framework for the investigation of solitary wave behavior of chorus modes. These findings enhance our understanding of wave-particle interactions and space weather in the Van Allen radiation belts, deepen the connection between whistler-electron dynamics and FELs, and reveal a novel connection between whistler-mode chorus and the GLE.

Ginsburg-Landau equation↗

Analysis of Needlet Internal Linear Combination performance on B -mode data from sub-orbital experiments

The observation of primordial B modes in cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarisation data represents the main scientific goal of most of the future CMB experiments. This signal is predicted to be much lower than polarised Galactic emission (foregrounds) in any region of the sky, pointing to the need for effective component separation methods. Aims. Among all the techniques, the blind Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC) is of great relevance given our current limited knowledge of the B-mode foregrounds. In this work, we explore the possibility of employing NILC for the analysis of B modes reconstructed from partial-sky data, specifically addressing the complications that such an application yields such as E–B leakage, needlet filtering, and beam convolution. We consider two complementary simulated datasets of future experiments: the balloon-borne Short Wavelength Instrument for the Polarisation Explorer (SWIPE) of the Large Scale Polarisation Explorer, which targets the observation of both reionisation and recombination peaks of the primordial CMB B-mode angular power spectrum, and the ground-based Small Aperture Telescope of Simons Observatory, which, instead, is designed to observe only the recombination bump at ℓ ~ 80. We assessed the performance of the following two alternative techniques to correct for the CMB E–B leakage: the recycling technique and the Zhao-Baskaran method. We find that both techniques reduce the E–B leakage residuals at a negligible level given the sensitivity of the considered experiments, except for the recycling method in the SWIPE footprint at ℓ < 20. Thus, we implemented two extensions of the pipeline, the iterative B decomposition and the diffusive inpainting, which enabled us to recover the input CMB B-mode power for ℓ ≥ 5. For the considered experiments, we demonstrate that needlet filtering and beam convolution do not affect the CMB B-mode reconstruction. Finally, with an appropriate masking strategy, we find that NILC foregrounds subtraction allows one to achieve sensitivities on the tensor-to-scalar ratio in agreement with the targets of the considered CMB experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Site-specific electronic structure of covalently linked bimetallic dyads from nitrogen K-edge x-ray absorption spectroscopy

A nitrogen K-edge x-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) survey is presented for tetrapyrido[3,2-a:',3'-c:3'',2''-h:2''',3'''-j]phenazine (tpphz)-bridged bimetallic assemblies that couple chromophore and catalyst transition metal complexes for light driven catalysis, as well as their individual molecular constituents. We demonstrate the high N site sensitivity of the N pre-edge XANES features, which are energetically well-separated for the phenazine bridge N atoms and for the individual metal-bound N atoms of the inner coordination sphere ligands. By comparison with the time-dependent density functional theory calculated spectra, we determine the origins of these distinguishable spectral features. We find that metal coordination generates large shifts toward higher energy for the metal-bound N atoms, with increasing shift for 3d < 4d < 5d metal bonding. This is attributed to increasing ligand-to-metal σ donation that increases the effective charge of the bound N atoms and stabilizes the N 1s core electrons. In contrast, the phenazine bridge N pre-edge peak is found at a lower energy due to stabilization of the low energy electron accepting orbital localized on the phenazine motif. While no sensitivity to ground state electronic coupling between the individual molecular subunits was observed, the spectra are sensitive to structural distortions of the tpphz bridge. Here these results demonstrate N K-edge XANES as a local probe of electronic structure in large bridging ligand motifs, able to distinctly investigate the ligand-centered orbitals involved in metal-to-ligand and ligand-to-ligand electron transfer following light absorption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The luminous, slow-rising orphan afterglow AT2019pim as a candidate moderately relativistic outflow

ABSTRACT Classical gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have two distinct emission episodes: prompt emission from ultrarelativistic ejecta and afterglow from shocked circumstellar material. While both components are extremely luminous in known GRBs, a variety of scenarios predict the existence of luminous afterglow emission with little or no associated high-energy prompt emission. We present AT 2019pim, the first spectroscopically confirmed afterglow with no observed high-energy emission to be identified. Serendipitously discovered during follow-up observations of a gravitational-wave trigger and located in a contemporaneous TESS sector, it is hallmarked by a fast-rising ($t \approx 2$ h), luminous ($M_{\rm UV,peak} \approx -24.4$ mag) optical transient with accompanying luminous X-ray and radio emission. No gamma-ray emission consistent with the time and location of the transient was detected by Fermi-GBM or by Konus, placing constraining limits on an accompanying GRB. We investigate several independent observational aspects of the afterglow in the context of constraints on relativistic motion and find all of them are consistent with an initial Lorentz factor of $\Gamma _0 \approx$ 10–30 for the on-axis material, significantly lower than in any well-observed GRB and consistent with the theoretically predicted ‘dirty fireball’ scenario in which the high-energy prompt emission is stifled by pair production. However, we cannot rule out a structured jet model in which only the line-of-sight material was ejected at low-$\Gamma$, off-axis from a classical high-$\Gamma$ jet core, and an on-axis GRB with below-average gamma-ray efficiency also remains a possibility. This event represents a milestone in orphan afterglow searches, demonstrating that luminous optical afterglows lacking detected GRB counterparts can be identified and spectroscopically confirmed in real time.

Perley, Daniel A. (ORCID:0000000184721996)↗

Emissions mitigation technology for advanced water-lean solvent-based CO 2 capture processes

This technical final report submitted to DOE/NETL presents all the research activities performed during the entirety of DE-FE0031660 project-Emissions Mitigation Technology for Advanced Water-Lean Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Processes which spans from October 2018 through March 2022. RTI International has been conducting studies from fundamental and operational aspects to reduce the overall amine emissions from the advanced Water-Lean Solvent (WLS) systems, specifically RTI’s Non-Aqueous Solvent (NAS). This technical final report will highlight the key findings from project which align closely to the project objectives which are: Identify the contribution of vapor loss, entrainment, and aerosols to the overall emissions of water-lean systems; Determine the significance of CO 2 capture system operating parameters to the amine emissions; Develop an emissions model based on critical operating parameters; Evaluate the effectiveness of emissions mitigation devices to reduce the amine emissions to <1 ppm under flue coal-fired flue gas; and, Determine the contribution of the ECTs to the overall CO 2 capture cost. The following are the key findings based on numerous tests using both lab-scale setups and parametric testing performed at RTI’s Bench-scale Gas Absorption System (BsGAS). During the BP1, the aerosol generation system and monitoring equipment were installed at BsGAS to produce and determine the aerosol characteristics during the NAS CO 2 capture process. The aerosol produced by this setup produced aerosols with the peak diameter and concentration of 50 micron and 1.2E10 7 cm -3 , respectively. These particle sizes and concentrations are matched to those observed in the actual coal-fired power plant flue gases and expected to be found at the absorber inlet of the CO 2 capture system. Over 1,300 hours of parametric testing have been conducted to evaluate the impact of the aerosols and operating conditions during the CO 2 capture with NAS on the overall amine emissions in the treated flue gas. At the worse condition tested, the presence of the aerosols in the flue gas could increase the overall emissions by 10X compared to the baseline emissions from NAS’s vapor pressure. CO 2 capture rate was found to be a main factor impacting the overall emissions as well as aerosol size and concentrations in the absorber off-gas. The higher CO 2 capture rate, the higher amine emissions in the treated gas. The temperature difference between the temperature bulge seen in the absorber and the water wash temperature also impacts the particle growth where the larger the temperature difference, the more amine emissions from aerosols in the treated gas. The majority of the aerosols did not grow substantially in the system, and the particle concentrations remained nearly constant between the absorber inlet and wash outlet. Only a small portion of the particles were found to grow significantly. The high efficiency demister with mesh size of 5-10 micron can be installed to remove a portion of the aerosols from the gas stream leaving the water wash. Overall, these results from parametric testing have established the emission baseline and validate our assumption on the need of emission control technologies (ECT) in order to minimize the emissions from the baseline NAS CO 2 capture process. Over 2,000 of BsGAS operating hours was used to investigate a handful of process improvements which led to a selection of the vital few changes that effectively control the amine emissions. These process improvements are lime-coated-filters for absorber gas inlet, advanced demister at the top of the absorber, a second water wash with amine recovery unit were designed, installed, and tested at BsGAS at the end of BP1. The result showed that the NAS CO 2 capture process with these additional emission control devices could lower the amine emission in the treated gas to about 1 ppm using a simulated coal-fire flue gas stream. The main contributor in lowering the amine emission came from the second water wash with amine recovery unit where the amine concentration in the scrubbing water was kept below 2 wt% through a continuous amine removal via an adsorbent bed, resulting in a low amine vapor pressure. The adsorbent bed was regenerated via a direct steam regeneration and the recover amine was returned to the absorber to minimize wastewater and makeup amine. A flue gas generation system was designed and installed during the first half of BP2 to support the emission testing using a real coal-derived flue gas. The system is capable of generating both coal- and natural gas- derived flue gases with the composition of the gaseous species highly resemble to that of the power plant flue gases. The particulates detected in the coal-derived flue gas showed the mean diameter of 1 micron. The CO 2 capture operating was then proceed using the real coal-derived flue gas where the amine emission was controlled to be about 0-3 ppm for the total run time of about 200 hours. Similar testing was conducted with natural gas-derived flue gas and the result showed a highly amine emission of 30 ppm under the total run time of 200 hours. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Partial Least Squares Projection to Latent Structures (PLS) techniques were applied to the parametric testing data to derive a multivariate statistical model. The model was validated and trained with half of the data collected, and the predictive ability of the model was evaluated using the remaining half of the data. The resulting empirical model was capable of predicting the overall emissions from the NAS process without the ECTs with ±15% accuracy (average absolute deviation, AAD) in BP1. As more emission data were obtained under the real coal-flue gas in the BP2, the model incorporated these new set of data to reflect the final process configuration, operating parameters, and amine emission. This results in the updated empirical model predicting the amine emission from the NAS CO 2 capture process with 84% goodness-of-fit (R 2 ), 85% predictability (Q 2 ), and 15% AAD. The study evaluates the use of RTI’s Non-Aqueous Solvent technology for 90% CO 2 capture from a net 650 MWe pulverized coal power plant, downstream of the flue-gas desulfurization unit. The captured CO 2 has a purity of > 95% CO 2 , and is dried, compressed to 15.3 MPa (2,215 psia), ready for sequestration. The analysis uses Case B12B from the DOE Baseline study on Bituminous Coal, Revision 4 where the Cansolv CO 2 capture plant is replaced by the RTI CO 2 Capture plant. The CO 2 capture plant has been sized to capture >90% CO 2 from flue gas derived from a net 650 MWe supercritical pulverized coal power plant. The CO 2 capture plant is equipped with emission control technologies that limits the amine emissions to < 1 ppm. Two different cases were evaluated for the technoeconomic study. The key difference between the two cases is the regenerator pressure. In Case 1, the regenerator operates at 0.195 MPa (28.3 psia), whereas in Case 2, the regenerator pressure is 0.44 MPa (64 psia) thus removing the need for the first stage of compression of the eight-stage compression train. Results from the TEA are compared against the DOE reference cases for SCPC plant with and without CO 2 Capture (Case B12A and Case B12B of the DOE Baseline study, respectively). Case 2 with CO 2 regeneration at higher pressure results in the lower cost of CO 2 capture. The total capital cost of the capture process has been estimated using 2018 dollars in Aspen Process Economic Analyzer and was estimated to be $579 MM. The capture plant operation leads to a total parasitic power loss rate of 96 MWe, resulting in a decrease in pulverized coal power plant efficiency of 7.8% points. The resulting cost of electric power increases from 64.4 mills/kWh, for no capture, to 97.5 mills/kWh, with 90% capture, an increase of 51% in the COE. The cost of capturing 90% CO 2 was estimated to be $38.2/tonne-CO 2 , and meets the DOE target of $40/t-CO 2 . Emission control technologies (ECT) investigated in this project includes a second water wash with use of activated carbon beds for removal of amine from the wash water prior to recirculation in the water wash. These ECT allow operation of the CO 2 capture plant with < 1 ppm amine emissions with the treated flue gas and contributes to $2.4/t-CO 2 captured. Amine emissions derived from thermal and oxidative degradations were investigated under this project along with the emissions derived from aerosols for the NAS system. The thermally degraded of the lean NAS showed less than 4% decreased of the original total amine content in the NAS at 150 °C while the result obtained at 120 °C showed no drop in total amine content, suggesting that thermal degradation of the NAS is minimal. These results also suggested that the thermally degraded species are not likely formed and contributed to the emissions due to the low regeneration temperature of the NAS at 90-105 °C. The oxidative degradation, on the other hand, could become problematic as some of these oxidative degraded species were observed during the NAS-5 testing at National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) and SINTEF in our previous project. The rapid screening of selected inhibitors suggested that oxidative degradation of NAS can be suppressed using thiol containing compounds in amounts of at least 1 mol%. The detailed mechanistic degradation pathway was conceived for a specific amine used in NAS formulation during BP2. he reduction of the nitrosamines caused by the NO x present in the flue gas was also examined. The study suggested that the thermo-chemical treatment of the NAS solvent would be a more effective and economically viable compared to removing NO x at the DCC.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Assessment of the Loss of Vacuum on the Local Metal Temperature in the TEX Experiment Assembly

A four-part assessment using analytical methods and semi-analytical simulation tools finds that the maximum temperature variation in the highly enriched uranium (HEU) Jemima plate assembly is less than ten Kelvin (< 10 K) in an abrupt loss of vacuum scenario. The temperature variation in the metals is likely to be one to four Kelvin (1 K – 4 K) based on the most realistic conditions in the assessment. The four assessment parts include: (1) the peak gas temperature bound for the initial influx of the ambient air; (2) the high-heat transfer limit during the high-speed forced convection period in an insulated HEU plate; (3) the high-heat transfer limit during the high-speed forced convection period with aluminum spacers; and (4) the longer-time thermal equilibration period between the air and metal stack. The four-part assessment serves as conservative upper bound on the temperature variation in the metal stack and remains well below the 40 Kelvin limit where the temperature-induced stresses could lead to permanent, plastic deformation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Understanding the Star Formation Process in the Filamentary Dark Cloud GF 9: Near-Infrared Observations

We have performed a near-infrared JHK survey of a dense core and a diffuse filament region within the filamentary dark cloud GF 9 (LDN 1082). The core region is associated with the IRAS point source PSC 20503+6006 and is suspected of being a site of star formation. The diffuse filament region has no associated IRAS point sources and is likely quiescent. We find that neither the core nor the filament region appears to contain a Class I or Class II young stellar object. As traced by the dust extinction, the core and filament regions contain 26 and 22 solar mass, respectively, with an average H2 volume density for both regions of approximately 2500/cu cm. The core region contains a centrally condensed extinction maximum with a peak extinction of A(sub v) greater than or approximately equal to 10 mag that appears to be associated with the IRAS point source. The average H2 volume density of the extinction core is approximately 8000/cu cm. The dust within the filament, however, shows no sign of a central condensation and is consistent with a uniform-density cylindrical distribution.

Ciardi, David R.↗

From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon

Abstract This study assesses the projected trajectory of Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) events in East Asia and North America through large ensemble simulation for the upcoming decades. It analyses the evolution of the geographical boundaries of threshold cold temperatures, revealing a significant northward shift as a sign of global warming’s impact on the southward advancement of Arctic cold air. While validating the intensification of the WACC phenomenon until the 2020 s, echoing earlier studies, the findings indicate a marked decrease beginning in the 2030s. If warming is not curbed, this shift suggests a critical modification in the WACC pattern, prompting a re-evaluation of existing theories and models for extreme winter weather events. The results have major implications, spurring communities impacted by WACC to anticipate future changes and encouraging the climate forecasting community to update conceptual models for improved adaptation and mitigation approaches.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Quantifying streamflow regime behavior and its sensitivity to demand

This paper presents a new framework for quantitatively identifying, characterizing and analyzing systematic hydrological cycles resulting from streamflow variability in a way that integrates water supply and water demand. The hydrological cycles in question are measures of the most severe drought and pluvial events in a historical record of streamflow, along with their respective durations. The metrics developed here to quantify such episodes are based on an extended sequent peak algorithm that tracks the dynamic shifts in hydrological behavior of streamflow by accounting for water supply and demand with respect to streamflow. In the interest of being able to analyze the largest possible scope of hydrological cycles and behavior, we apply the quantitative methods developed in this paper to streamflow reconstructions in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB) as a case study. We find that the duration of dry periods increase conspicuously as a function of increasing demand levels, the duration of pluvial events decrease as a function of increasing demand levels, and that the general tendency is for streamflow gauges on or near the main stem of the river to have shorter dry spell durations and typically lower drought severity. On the other hand, being on or near the main stem tends to result in longer-duration pluvial events, though these pluvials are typically less severe than those off the main stem. Persistence and spatial variability of streamflow reconstructions were also analyzed to shed further light on the spatial patterns identified earlier, and to see if this variability and persistence may have an influence on the behavior of the streamflow as quantified by the metrics defined in this paper. Finally, it was found that there is a stochastic dependence between the length of a drought and the time to recovery from that drought, and this dependence is used to create simple conditional probability curves to help water managers prepare for future extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Correlation between microstructure and residual stress formation in friction stir welded armor steels characterized by neutron diffraction

Friction stir welding (FSW) is a solid-state joining process that minimizes the heat-affected zone (HAZ) compared with fusion-based arc welding, making it well suited for joining martensitic armor steels where hardness and ballistic resistance are critical. This study investigates residual stress formation in three defect-free FSW butt-joint configurations relevant to armored-vehicle fabrication: similar rolled homogeneous armor (RHA–RHA, Case 1), similar high-hardness armor (HHA–HHA, Case 2), and dissimilar HHA–RHA (Case 3) joints produced under temperature-controlled conditions (770 °C). Neutron diffraction was employed to quantify the magnitude and spatial distribution of residual stresses in the longitudinal, transverse, and normal directions and to correlate them with weld microstructure and hardness. Tensile residual stresses were concentrated in the softened HAZ, reaching approximately 300 MPa for Case 2 and 400 MPa for Case 1 (≈50–70 % of the base-metal yield strength; ∼581 MPa for RHA and ∼566 MPa for HHA), while compressive residual stresses dominated the stir zone. The spatial extent of tensile stresses scaled with the width of the softened HAZ, which was largest in the dissimilar HHA–RHA joint and smallest in the HHA–HHA joint. Full-width-at-half-maximum (FWHM) analysis revealed low microstrain in overtempered HAZ regions and high microstrain in the stir zone associated with severe plastic deformation and fresh martensite formation. This work demonstrates that residual stress evolution in FSW of martensitic armor steels is governed not primarily by peak temperature or thermal contraction, as inferred from fusion-welding analogies, but by the competition between transformation-induced volumetric expansion and tempering-induced stress relaxation. The relative dominance of these mechanisms is shown to depend on alloy hardenability and local thermal history, leading to more extensive HAZ softening and broader tensile stress regions in the lower-hardenability RHA steel. These findings establish a transferable mechanistic framework for optimizing solid-state joining strategies in high-strength steels and other transformation-hardening alloys beyond armor applications.

Friction stir welding↗