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NASA NTRS2014

Sao Paulo Lightning Mapping Array (SP-LMA): Network Assessment and Analyses for Intercomparison Studies and GOES-R Proxy Activities

A 12 station Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network was deployed during October 2011 in the vicinity of Sao Paulo, Brazil (SP-LMA) to contribute total lightning measurements to an international field campaign [CHUVA - Cloud processes of tHe main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribUtion to cloud resolVing modeling and to the GPM (GlobAl Precipitation Measurement)]. The SP-LMA was operational from November 2011 through March 2012 during the Vale do Paraiba campaign. Sensor spacing was on the order of 15-30 km, with a network diameter on the order of 40-50km. The SP-LMA provides good 3-D lightning mapping out to 150 km from the network center, with 2-D coverage considerably farther. In addition to supporting CHUVA science/mission objectives, the SP-LMA is supporting the generation of unique proxy data for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), on NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R: scheduled for a 2015 launch). These proxy data will be used to develop and validate operational algorithms so that they will be ready to use on "day1" following the GOES-R launch. As the CHUVA Vale do Paraiba campaign opportunity was formulated, a broad community-based interest developed for a comprehensive Lightning Location System (LLS) intercomparison and assessment study, leading to the participation and/or deployment of eight other ground-based networks and the space-based Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). The SP-LMA data is being intercompared with lightning observations from other deployed lightning networks to advance our understanding of the capabilities/contributions of each of these networks toward GLM proxy and validation activities. This paper addresses the network assessment including noise reduction criteria, detection efficiency estimates, and statistical and climatological (both temporal and spatially) analyses for intercomparison studies and GOES-R proxy activities.

Bailey, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Review↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Effects of the Uncertainty of Departures on Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) Scheduling

The Multi-center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) provides a platform for regional or national traffic flow management, by allowing long-range cooperative time-based metering to constrained resources, such as airports or air traffic control center boundaries. Part of the demand for resources is made up of proposed departures, whose actual departure time is difficult to predict. For this reason, McTMA does not schedule the departures in advance, but rather relies on traffic managers to input their requested departure time. Because this happens only a short while before the aircraft's actual departure, McTMA is unable to accurately predict the amount of delay airborne aircraft will need to take in order to accommodate the departures. The proportion of demand which is made up by such proposed departures increases as the horizon over which metering occurs gets larger. This study provides an initial analysis of the severity of this problem in a 400-500 nautical mile metering horizon and discusses potential solutions to accommodate these departures. The challenge is to smoothly incorporate departures with the airborne stream while not excessively delaying the departures.' In particular, three solutions are reviewed: (1) scheduling the departures at their proposed departure time; (2) not scheduling the departures in advance; and (3) scheduling the departures at some time in the future based on an estimated error in their proposed time. The first solution is to have McTMA to automatically schedule the departures at their proposed departure times. Since the proposed departure times are indicated in their flight times in advance, this method is the simplest, but studies have shown that these proposed times are often incorrect2 The second option is the current practice, which avoids these inaccuracies by only scheduling aircraft when a confirmed prediction of departure time is obtained from the tower of the departure airport. Lastly, McTMA can schedule the departures at a predicted departure time based on statistical data of past departure time performance. It has been found that departures usually have a wheels-up time after their indicated proposed departure time, as shown in Figure 1. Hence, the departures were scheduled at a time in the future based on the mean error in proposed departure times for their airport.

Thipphavong, Jane↗
NASA NTRS2011

Estimation of Smoothing Error in SBUV Profile and Total Ozone Retrieval

Data from the Nimbus-4, Nimbus-7 Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet (SBUV) and seven of the NOAA series of SBUV/2 instruments spanning 41 years are being reprocessed using V8.6 algorithm. The data are scheduled to be released by the end of August 2011. An important focus of the new algorithm is to estimate various sources of errors in the SBUV profiles and total ozone retrievals. We discuss here the smoothing errors that describe the components of the profile variability that the SBUV observing system can not measure. The SBUV(/2) instruments have a vertical resolution of 5 km in the middle stratosphere, decreasing to 8 to 10 km below the ozone peak and above 0.5 hPa. To estimate the smoothing effect of the SBUV algorithm, the actual statistics of the fine vertical structure of ozone profiles must be known. The covariance matrix of the ensemble of measured ozone profiles with the high vertical resolution would be a formal representation of the actual ozone variability. We merged the MLS (version 3) and sonde ozone profiles to calculate the covariance matrix, which in general case, for single profile retrieval, might be a function of the latitude and month. Using the averaging kernels of the SBUV(/2) measurements and calculated total covariance matrix one can estimate the smoothing errors for the SBUV ozone profiles. A method to estimate the smoothing effect of the SBUV algorithm is described and the covariance matrixes and averaging kernels are provided along with the SBUV(/2) ozone profiles. The magnitude of the smoothing error varies with altitude, latitude, season and solar zenith angle. The analysis of the smoothing errors, based on the SBUV(/2) monthly zonal mean time series, shows that the largest smoothing errors were detected in the troposphere and might be as large as 15-20% and rapidly decrease with the altitude. In the stratosphere above 40 hPa the smoothing errors are less than 5% and between 10 and 1 hPa the smoothing errors are on the order of 1%. We validate our estimated smoothing errors by comparing the SBUV ozone profiles with other ozone profiling sensors.

Kramarova, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2007

POD Model Reconstruction for Gray-Box Fault Detection

Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is the mathematical basis of a method of constructing low-order mathematical models for the "gray-box" fault-detection algorithm that is a component of a diagnostic system known as beacon-based exception analysis for multi-missions (BEAM). POD has been successfully applied in reducing computational complexity by generating simple models that can be used for control and simulation for complex systems such as fluid flows. In the present application to BEAM, POD brings the same benefits to automated diagnosis. BEAM is a method of real-time or offline, automated diagnosis of a complex dynamic system.The gray-box approach makes it possible to utilize incomplete or approximate knowledge of the dynamics of the system that one seeks to diagnose. In the gray-box approach, a deterministic model of the system is used to filter a time series of system sensor data to remove the deterministic components of the time series from further examination. What is left after the filtering operation is a time series of residual quantities that represent the unknown (or at least unmodeled) aspects of the behavior of the system. Stochastic modeling techniques are then applied to the residual time series. The procedure for detecting abnormal behavior of the system then becomes one of looking for statistical differences between the residual time series and the predictions of the stochastic model.

Park, Han↗
NASA NTRS2014

Erasing the Variable: Empirical Foreground Discovery for Global 21 cm Spectrum Experiments

Spectral measurements of the 21 cm monopole background have the promise of revealing the bulk energetic properties and ionization state of our universe from z approx. 6 − 30. Synchrotron foregrounds are orders of magnitude larger than the cosmological signal, and are the principal challenge faced by these experiments. While synchrotron radiation is thought to be spectrally smooth and described by relatively few degrees of freedom, the instrumental response to bright foregrounds may be much more complex. To deal with such complexities, we develop an approach that discovers contaminated spectral modes using spatial fluctuations of the measured data. This approach exploits the fact that foregrounds vary across the sky while the signal does not. The discovered modes are projected out of each line-of-sight of a data cube. An angular weighting then optimizes the cosmological signal amplitude estimate by giving preference to lower-noise regions. Using this method, we show that it is essential for the passband to be stable to at least approx. 10(exp −4). In contrast, the constraints on the spectral smoothness of the absolute calibration are mainly aesthetic if one is able to take advantage of spatial information. To the extent it is understood, controlling polarization to intensity leakage at the approx. 10(exp −2) level will also be essential to rejecting Faraday rotation of the polarized synchrotron emission. Subject headings: dark ages, reionization, first stars - methods: data analysis - methods: statistical

Variable↗
NASA NTRS2015

Exploring EUV Spicules Using 304 Ang He II Data from SDO/AIA

We present results from a statistical study of He II 304 Angstrom EUV spicules and macrospicules at the limb of the Sun. We use high-cadence (12 sec) and high-resolution (0.6 arcsec pixels) resolution data from the Atmospheric Imaging Array (AIA) instrument on the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). All of the observed events occurred in quiet or coronal hole regions near the solar pole. Spicules and macrospicules are typically transient jet-like chromospheric-material features, the macrospicules are wider and have taller maximum heights than the spicules. We looked for characteristics of the populations of these two phenomena that might indicate whether they have the same or different initiation mechanisms. We examined the maximum heights, time-averaged rise velocities, and lifetimes of about two dozen EUV spicules and about five EUV macrospicules. For spicules, these quantities are, respectively, approx. 5-30 km, 5-50 km/s, and a few 100- approx. 1000 sec. Macrospicules were approx. 60,000 km, 55 km/s, and had lifetimes of approx. 1800 sec. Therefore the macrospicules were taller and longer-lived than the spicules, and had velocities comparable to that of the fastest spicules. The rise profiles of both the spicules and the macrospicules matched well a second-order ("parabolic'') trajectory, although the acceleration was generally weaker than that of solar gravity in the profiles fitted to the trajectories. The Macrospicules also had obvious brightenings at their bases at their birth, while such brightenings were not apparent for most of the spicules. Most of the spicules and several of the macrospicules remained visible during their decent back to the solar surface, although a small percentage of the spicules faded out before their fall was completed. Are findings are suggestive of the two phenomena possibly having different initiation mechanisms, but this is not yet conclusive. Qualitatively the EUV 304 Angstrom spicules match well the properties quoted for "Type I'' Hinode Ca II spicules, even though we observed these 304 Angstrom spicules at a polar location, where typically only "Type II'' spicules are seen in the Hinode Ca II images. A.C.S. and R.L.M. were supported by funding from the Heliophysics Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate through the Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology Program, and the Hinode Project. I.S. was supported by NSF's Research Experience for Undergraduates Program

Snyder, Ian↗
NASA NTRS2015

Advanced Curation: Solving Current and Future Sample Return Problems

Advanced Curation is a wide-ranging and comprehensive research and development effort at NASA Johnson Space Center that identifies and remediates sample related issues. For current collections, Advanced Curation investigates new cleaning, verification, and analytical techniques to assess their suitability for improving curation processes. Specific needs are also assessed for future sample return missions. For each need, a written plan is drawn up to achieve the requirement. The plan draws while upon current Curation practices, input from Curators, the analytical expertise of the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) team, and suitable standards maintained by ISO, IEST, NIST and other institutions. Additionally, new technologies are adopted on the bases of need and availability. Implementation plans are tested using customized trial programs with statistically robust courses of measurement, and are iterated if necessary until an implementable protocol is established. Upcoming and potential NASA missions such as OSIRIS-REx, the Asteroid Retrieval Mission (ARM), sample return missions in the New Frontiers program, and Mars sample return (MSR) all feature new difficulties and specialized sample handling requirements. The Mars 2020 mission in particular poses a suite of challenges since the mission will cache martian samples for possible return to Earth. In anticipation of future MSR, the following problems are among those under investigation: What is the most efficient means to achieve the less than 1.0 ng/sq cm total organic carbon (TOC) cleanliness required for all sample handling hardware? How do we maintain and verify cleanliness at this level? The Mars 2020 Organic Contamination Panel (OCP) predicts that organic carbon, if present, will be present at the "one to tens" of ppb level in martian near-surface samples. The same samples will likely contain wt% perchlorate salts, or approximately 1,000,000x as much perchlorate oxidizer as organic carbon. The chemical kinetics of this reaction are poorly understood at present under the conditions of cached or curated martian samples. Among other parameters, what is the maximum temperature allowed during storage in order to preserve native martian organic compounds for analysis? What is the best means to collect headspace gases from cached martian (and other) samples? This gas will contain not only martian atmosphere but also off-gassed volatiles from the cached solids.

Fries, M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Methods for Validation and Intercomparison of Remote Sensing and In situ Ice Water Measurements: Case Studies from CRYSTAL-FACE and Model Results

Remote sensing observations, such as those from AURA, are necessary to understand the role of cirrus in determining the radiative and humidity budgets of the upper troposphere. Using these measurements quantitatively requires comparisons with in situ measurements that have previously been validated. However, a direct comparison of remote and in situ measurements is difficult due to the requirement that the spatial and temporal overlap be sufficient in order to guarantee that both instruments are measuring the same air parcel. A difficult as this might be for gas phase intercomparisons, cloud inhomogeneities significantly exacerbate the problem for cloud ice water content measurements. The CRYSTAL-FACE mission provided an opportunity to assess how well such intercomparisons can be performed and to establish flight plans that will be necessary for validation of future satellite instruments. During CRYSTAL-FACE, remote and in situ instruments were placed on different aircraft (NASA's ER-2 and WB-59, and the two planes flew in tandem so that the in situ payload flew in the field of view of the remote instruments. We show here that, even with this type of careful flight planning, it is not always possible to guarantee that remote and in situ instruments are viewing the same air parcel. We use ice water data derived from the in situ Harvard Total Water (HV-TW) instrument, and the remote Goddard Cloud Radar System (CRS) and show that agreement between HV-TW and CRS is a strong function of the horizontal separation and the time delay between the aircraft transects. We also use a cloud model to simulate possible trajectories through a cloud and evaluate the use of statistical analysis in determining the agreement between the two instruments. This type of analysis should guide flight planning for future intercomparison efforts, whether for aircraft or satellite-borne instrumentation.

Sayres, D.S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Prediction of Acoustic Environments from Horizontal Rocket Firings

In recent years, advances in research and engineering have led to more powerful launch vehicles which can reach areas of space not yet explored. These more powerful vehicles yield acoustic environments potentially destructive to the vehicle or surrounding structures. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to be able to predict the acoustic environments created by these vehicles in order to avoid structural and/or competent failure. The current industry standard technique for predicting launch-induced acoustic environments was developed by Eldred in the early 1970's and is published in NASA SP-80721. Recent work2 has shown Eldred's technique to be inaccurate for current state-of-the-art launch vehicles. Due to the high cost of full-scale and even sub-scale rocket experiments, very little rocket noise data is available. Furthermore, much of the work thought to be applicable to rocket noise has been done with heated jets. Tam3,4 has done an extensive amount of research on jets of different nozzle exit shape, diameter, velocity, and temperature. Though the values of these parameters, especially exit velocity and temperature, are often very low compared to these values in rockets, a lot can be learned about rocket noise from jet noise literature. The turbulent nature of jet and rocket exhausts is quite similar. Both exhausts contain turbulent structures of varying scale-termed the fine and large scale turbulence by Tam. The finescale turbulence is due to small eddies from the jet plume interacting with the ambient atmosphere. According to Tam et al., the noise radiated by this envelope of small-scale turbulence is statistically isotropic. Hence, one would expect the noise from the small scale turbulence of the jet to be nearly omni-directional. The coherent nature of the large-scale turbulence results in interference of the noise radiated from different spatial locations within the jet. This interference-whether it is constructive or destructive-results in highly directional noise radiation. Tam3 has proposed a model to predict the acoustic environment due to jets and while it works extremely well for jets, it was found to be inappropriate for rockets8. A model to predict the acoustic environment due to a launch vehicle in the far-field which incorporates concepts from both Eldred and Tam was created. This was done using five sets of horizontally fired rocket data, obtained between 2008 and 2012. Three of these rockets use solid propellant and two use liquid propellant. Through scaling analysis, it is shown that liquid and solid rocket motors exhibit similar spectra at similar amplitudes. This model is accurate for these five data sets within 5 dB of the measured data for receiver angles of 30deg to 160deg (with respect to the downstream exhaust centerline). The model uses the following vehicle parameters: nozzle exit diameter and velocity, radial distance from source to receiver, receiver angle, mass flow rate, and acoustic efficiency.

Giacomoni, Clothilde↗
NASA NTRS2009

Kepler Data Validation and Follow-up Programs

The approach that the Kepler Mission uses to remove false positive events and to validate the discoveries consists of two parts; data validation (DPI) and follow up observations program (FOP). DV consists of several methods of examining the data from the spacecraft observations. First, to rule out statistical fluctuations in the data, accept only signals that show 3 or more transits and that have a total signal-to-noise ratio that exceeds 7 sigma. Second. to identify small stellar companions to the target star, we check for secondary eclipses and determine if the transit characteristics are appropriate for a planetary companion. Third, check for background binaries that are in the target aperture. Here we measure the movement of the image centroid before, during, and after the transit. If the target is producing the signal, a dimming wi11 move the image centroid in a known direction and magnitude. If the signal comes from a nearby star, the amplitude and direction of the motion wi11 be different, This test is expected to rule out the hundreds of binary signals expected from background stars. The precision of the measurement depends on the stellar fluxes and positions but can be better than 0.01 pixel; i.e., 0.04". Those candidates that pass these tests are examined using ground-based telescopes and radial velocity spectrometers. First medium precision RV is used to rule out any remaining stellar companions. Then high spatial resolution imaging is used to check for nearby stars that are in the aperture- (The Kepler apertures depend on magnitude but are of order 36 sq are sec in area.) If no stars are present that quid generate the observed signal, then the candidate goes to a large telescope such as Keck, HET, or Wi1lilam Herschel for high precision observations to get the planet mass or an upper limit to it, if there are some stars in the aperture, then the photometric observations are employed to look for the transit by cane of the confounding stars. If none are seen, then the candidate is sent to a large telescope such as Keck

William, Borucki J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Adaptive Sampling of Time Series During Remote Exploration

This work deals with the challenge of online adaptive data collection in a time series. A remote sensor or explorer agent adapts its rate of data collection in order to track anomalous events while obeying constraints on time and power. This problem is challenging because the agent has limited visibility (all its datapoints lie in the past) and limited control (it can only decide when to collect its next datapoint). This problem is treated from an information-theoretic perspective, fitting a probabilistic model to collected data and optimizing the future sampling strategy to maximize information gain. The performance characteristics of stationary and nonstationary Gaussian process models are compared. Self-throttling sensors could benefit environmental sensor networks and monitoring as well as robotic exploration. Explorer agents can improve performance by adjusting their data collection rate, preserving scarce power or bandwidth resources during uninteresting times while fully covering anomalous events of interest. For example, a remote earthquake sensor could conserve power by limiting its measurements during normal conditions and increasing its cadence during rare earthquake events. A similar capability could improve sensor platforms traversing a fixed trajectory, such as an exploration rover transect or a deep space flyby. These agents can adapt observation times to improve sample coverage during moments of rapid change. An adaptive sampling approach couples sensor autonomy, instrument interpretation, and sampling. The challenge is addressed as an active learning problem, which already has extensive theoretical treatment in the statistics and machine learning literature. A statistical Gaussian process (GP) model is employed to guide sample decisions that maximize information gain. Nonsta tion - ary (e.g., time-varying) covariance relationships permit the system to represent and track local anomalies, in contrast with current GP approaches. Most common GP models are stationary, e.g., the covariance relationships are time-invariant. In such cases, information gain is independent of previously collected data, and the optimal solution can always be computed in advance. Information-optimal sampling of a stationary GP time series thus reduces to even spacing, and such models are not appropriate for tracking localized anomalies. Additionally, GP model inference can be computationally expensive.

Thompson, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Reliability and Maintainability Analysis of a High Air Pressure Compressor Facility

This paper discusses a Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) independent assessment conducted to support the refurbishment of the Compressor Station at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The paper discusses the methodologies used by the assessment team to derive the repair by replacement (RR) strategies to improve the reliability and availability of the Compressor Station (Ref.1). This includes a RAPTOR simulation model that was used to generate the statistical data analysis needed to derive a 15-year investment plan to support the refurbishment of the facility. To summarize, study results clearly indicate that the air compressors are well past their design life. The major failures of Compressors indicate that significant latent failure causes are present. Given the occurrence of these high-cost failures following compressor overhauls, future major failures should be anticipated if compressors are not replaced. Given the results from the RR analysis, the study team recommended a compressor replacement strategy. Based on the data analysis, the RR strategy will lead to sustainable operations through significant improvements in reliability, availability, and the probability of meeting the air demand with acceptable investment cost that should translate, in the long run, into major cost savings. For example, the probability of meeting air demand improved from 79.7 percent for the Base Case to 97.3 percent. Expressed in terms of a reduction in the probability of failing to meet demand (1 in 5 days to 1 in 37 days), the improvement is about 700 percent. Similarly, compressor replacement improved the operational availability of the facility from 97.5 percent to 99.8 percent. Expressed in terms of a reduction in system unavailability (1 in 40 to 1 in 500), the improvement is better than 1000 percent (an order of magnitude improvement). It is worthy to note that the methodologies, tools, and techniques used in the LaRC study can be used to evaluate similar high value equipment components and facilities. Also, lessons learned in data collection and maintenance practices derived from the observations, findings, and recommendations of the study are extremely important in the evaluation and sustainment of new compressor facilities.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Free-Energy Calculations. A Mathematical Perspective

Ion channels are pore-forming assemblies of transmembrane proteins that mediate and regulate ion transport through cell walls. They are ubiquitous to all life forms. In humans and other higher organisms they play the central role in conducting nerve impulses. They are also essential to cardiac processes, muscle contraction and epithelial transport. Ion channels from lower organisms can act as toxins or antimicrobial agents, and in a number of cases are involved in infectious diseases. Because of their important and diverse biological functions they are frequent targets of drug action. Also, simple natural or synthetic channels find numerous applications in biotechnology. For these reasons, studies of ion channels are at the forefront of biophysics, structural biology and cellular biology. In the last decade, the increased availability of X-ray structures has greatly advanced our understanding of ion channels. However, their mechanism of action remains elusive. This is because, in order to assist controlled ion transport, ion channels are dynamic by nature, but X-ray crystallography captures the channel in a single, sometimes non-native state. To explain how ion channels work, X-ray structures have to be supplemented with dynamic information. In principle, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can aid in providing this information, as this is precisely what MD has been designed to do. However, MD simulations suffer from their own problems, such as inability to access sufficiently long time scales or limited accuracy of force fields. To assess the reliability of MD simulations it is only natural to turn to the main function of channels - conducting ions - and compare calculated ionic conductance with electrophysiological data, mainly single channel recordings, obtained under similar conditions. If this comparison is satisfactory it would greatly increase our confidence that both the structures and our computational methodologies are sufficiently accurate. Channel conductance, defined as the ratio of ionic current through the channel to applied voltage, can be calculated in MD simulations by way of applying an external electric field to the system and counting the number of ions that traverse the channel per unit time. If the current is small, a voltage significantly higher than the experimental one needs to be applied to collect sufficient statistics of ion crossing events. Then, the calculated conductance has to be extrapolated to the experimental voltage using procedures of unknown accuracy. Instead, we propose an alternative approach that applies if ion transport through channels can be described with sufficient accuracy by the one-dimensional diffusion equation in the potential given by the free energy profile and applied voltage. Then, it is possible to test the assumptions of the equation, recover the full voltage/current dependence, determine the reliability of the calculated conductance and reconstruct the underlying (equilibrium) free energy profile, all from MD simulations at a single voltage. We will present the underlying theory, model calculations that test this theory and simulations on ion conductance through a channel that has been extensively studied experimentally. To our knowledge this is the first case in which the complete, experimentally measured dependence of the current on applied voltage has been reconstructed from MD simulations.

free energy↗
NASA NTRS2020

MSL Telecom Automated Anomaly Detection

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Telecom Operations Team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has implemented a machine learning system in order to automate the anomaly detection process as a part of daily operations. Machine learning enables reliable detection of anomalies in Telecom-related telemetry and automated reporting of Telecom subsystem status, resulting in an 90% reduction in team workload and improved anomaly detection reliability. At present, machine learning methods are used to detect: 1. Anomalous long-term trends in telemetry data 2. Anomalous time-domain evolution of telemetry values Both types of anomalies pose their own unique challenges that are addressed in different ways. In the first case, long term trending of daily minima, maximum, and mean telemetry values in temperatures, currents, voltages, and radio frequency (RF) power levels is used in addition to hard threshold safety checks to look for changes in long-term equipment health and performance. Long-term trending methods allow for ordinary seasonal variations in these quantities caused by temperature changes over the course of the Martian year while allowing operators to determine whether current performance remains in line with historical values from previous years. Changes in long-term trends can provide important insights into the health and status of the rover's on-board systems as well as valuable early warning if subtle degradation begins to take hold. But while trending of daily statistics is valuable, it does not detect anomalies in the short-term time evolution of data over the course of minutes or hours during a day, and this task is handled with short-term shape analysis. Principal components analysis (PCA) has been found to provide robust detection of short-term anomalies, and several examples of the use of PCA to detect actual anomalous events will be provided here. In using PCA, we use both the percentage of explained variance and also a log likelihood test on the PCA expansion coefficients to flag telemetry data for human review. Previous work in the field of spacecraft anomaly detection includes [1] for MSL and [2] for some other JPL missions.

Mukai, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS1989

A statistical study of radio-source structure effects on astrometric very long baseline interferometry observations

Errors from a number of sources in astrometric very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) have been reduced in recent years through a variety of methods of calibration and modeling. Such reductions have led to a situation in which the extended structure of the natural radio sources used in VLBI is a significant error source in the effort to improve the accuracy of the radio reference frame. In the past, work has been done on individual radio sources to establish the magnitude of the errors caused by their particular structures. The results of calculations on 26 radio sources are reported in which an effort is made to determine the typical delay and delay-rate errors for a number of sources having different types of structure. It is found that for single observations of the types of radio sources present in astrometric catalogs, group-delay and phase-delay scatter in the 50 to 100 psec range due to source structure can be expected at 8.4 GHz on the intercontinental baselines available in the Deep Space Network (DSN). Delay-rate scatter of approx. 5 x 10(exp -15) sec sec(exp -1) (or approx. 0.002 mm sec (exp -1) is also expected. If such errors mapped directly into source position errors, they would correspond to position uncertainties of approx. 2 to 5 nrad, similar to the best position determinations in the current JPL VLBI catalog. With the advent of wider bandwidth VLBI systems on the large DSN antennas, the system noise will be low enough so that the structure-induced errors will be a significant part of the error budget. Several possibilities for reducing the structure errors are discussed briefly, although it is likely that considerable effort will have to be devoted to the structure problem in order to reduce the typical error by a factor of two or more.

Ulvestad, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Search for Pulsations from a Nearby Millisecond Pulsar and Wasilewski 49: Mirror for a Hidden Seyfert 1 Nucleus

Five studies are reported in this final report. The recently discovered 5.3 ms pulsar J1012+5307 at a distance of 520 pc is in an area of the sky which is particularly deficient in absorbing gas. The column density along the line of sight is less than 7.5 x 10(exp 19) CM(exp -2) which facilitates soft X-ray observations. Halpern reported a possible ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) detection of the pulsar in a serendipitous, off-axis observation. We have now confirmed the X-ray emission of PSR J1012+,5307 in a 23 ksec observation with the ROSAT High Resolution Imager (HRI). A point source is detected within 3" of the radio position. Its count rate of 1.6 +/- 0.3 x 10(exp -3) s(exp -1) corresponds to an unabsorbed 0. 1-2.4 keV flux of 6.4 x 10(exp -14) ergs cm(exp -2) s(exp -1), similar to that reported previously. This counts-to-flux conversion is valid for N(sub H) = 5 x 10(exp 19) cm(exp -2), and either a power-law spectrum of photon index 2.5 or a blackbody of kT = 0.1 keV. The implied X-ray luminosity of 2.0 x 10(exp 30) ergs s(exp -1) is 5 X 10(exp -4) of the pulsar's spin-down power dot-E, and similar to that of the nearest millisecond pulsar J0437-4715, which is nearly a twin of J1012+5307 in P dot-E. We subjected the 37 photons (and 13 background counts) within the source region to a pulsar search, but no evidence for pulsation was found. The pulsar apparently emits over a large fraction of its rotation cycle, and the absence of sharp modulation can be taken as evidence for surface thermal emission, as is favored for PSR J0437-4715, rather than magnetospheric X-ray emission which is apparent in the sharp pulses of the much more energetic millisecond pulsar B1821-24. A further test of this interpretation will be made with a longer ROSAT observation, which will increase the number of photons collected by a factor of 5, and permit a more sensitive examination of the light curve for modulation due to emission from heated polar caps. If found, such modulation will be further evidence that surface reheating by the impact of particles accelerated along open fiel;d lines operates in these approximately 10(exp -9) year old pulsars. In a second study, a new AM Her star serendipitously in a 25 day observation was detected with the EUVE satellite. A coherent period of 85.82 min is present in the EUVE Deep Survey imager light curve of this source. A spectroscopic optical identification is made with a 19th magnitude blue star that has H and He emission lines, and broad cyclotron humps typical of a magnetic cataclysmic variable. A lower limit to the polar magnetic field of 50 MG is estimated from the spacing of the cyclotron harmonics. EUVE J0425.6-5714 is also detected in archival ROSAT HRI observations spanning two months, and its stable and highly structured light curve permits us to fit a coherent ephemeris linking the ROSAT and EUVE data over a 1.3 yr gap. The derived period is 85.82107 +/- 0.00020 min, and the ephemeris should be accurate to 0.1 cycles until the year 2005. A narrow but partial X-ray eclipse suggests that this object belongs to the group of AM Her stars whose viewing geometry is such that the accretion stream periodically occults the soft X-ray emitting accretion spot on the surface of the white dwarf. A non-detection of hard X-rays from ASCA observations that are contemporaneous with the ROSAT HRI shows that the soft X-rays must dominate by at least an order of magnitude, which is consistent with a known trend among AM Her stars with large magnetic field. This object should not be confused with the Seyfert galaxy IH 0419-577 (= LB 1727), another X-ray/EUV source which lies only 3'95 away, and was the principal target of these monitoring observations. In a third report; the identity of the persistent high-energy (> 100 MeV) gamma-ray sources in the Galaxy, still largely a mystery is investigated. The second installment of the EGRET (2EG) lists a total of 128 sources, of which 51 are likely or possibly identified with AGNs, five with rotation-powered pulsars, and one is the LMC. There are 71 unidentified sources, of which 33, or almost half, lie in the narrow band of absolute value of b < 10 degrees along the Galactic plane. This excess of low-latitude sources must, therefore, constitute a Galactic population that is either similar to the already identified gamma-ray pulsars, or an entirely new class of gamma-ray emitters associated with the disk population. We are continuing our program, begun in A06, that is aimed at intermediate-latitude sources, arguing that X-ray detection of them is the most plausible method of identifying the Galactic population. The sources at high latitude must statistically be mostly AGNS, and are more straightforwardly identified through radio and optical means. For the fourth report, identification of the EGRET Source the identity of the persistent, high-energy gamma-ray sources in the Galactic plane is a mystery. The most likely scenario is a population of middle-aged pulsars, many of which could be radio quiet like Geminga. We have an ongoing program of ROSAT, VLA, and optical observations of selected EGRET error circles at intermediate Galactic latitude. For one of these fields, at (l, b) = (106 degrees, +3), our complete census of X-ray and radio sources, reveals a remarkable association between a radio shell with unique properties, and a complete census of X-ray and radio sources reveals a remarkable association between a radio shell with unique properties, and a compact X-ray source. Further observations are needed to determine whether or not this source has a hard X-ray spectrum like that of other gamma ray pulsars and, ideally, to find its pulsations. A fifth report reviews, Wasilewski 49, an interacting pair of Seyfert galaxies at z = 0.063, one of which contains a hidden Seyfert I nucleus as evidenced by broad wings on its Balmer lines.

Halpern, Jules P.↗