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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Control of High-Temperature Static and Transient Thermomechanical Behavior of SiMo Ductile Iron by Al Alloying

Abstract Silicon and molybdenum ( SiMo ) ductile iron is commonly used for exhaust manifolds because these components experience thermal cycling in oxidizing environment, which requires resistance to fatigue during transient thermomechanical loads. Previous studies have demonstrated that alloying elements, such as Al , to SiMo ductile iron reduces the amount of surface degradation during static high-temperature exposure. However, deterioration of sphericity of the graphite nodules and a decrease in ductility could affect the tendency of cracking during thermal cycling. In this article, the effect of Al alloying on static and transient thermomechanical behavior of SiMo ductile iron was investigated to optimize the amount of Al alloying. A thermodynamic approach was used to confirm the effect of the Al alloying on the phase transformations in two SiMo cast irons, alloyed by 1.8% Al and 3% Al . These two alloys were cast in a laboratory along with the baseline SiMo ductile iron. Several experimental methods were used to evaluate the dimensional stability, physical properties, static oxidation, and failure resistance during constrained thermal cycling testing to compare their high-temperature capability. Experimental results verified that Al alloying increases the temperature range and decreases volume change during eutectoid transformation, which together with enhancement of oxidation protection improved the dimensional stability. Thermocycling tests showed that the number of cycles to failure depends on the amount of Al alloying and the applied high-temperature exposure during each cycle. SEM/EDX, high-resolution TEM and µCT analysis were used to verify the mechanism resulting from the Al alloying protection. It was shown that an optimal level of Al alloying for balancing oxidation and thermal cracking resistance depends on thermomechanical conditions of application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Atmospheric processing and aerosol aging responsible for observed increase in absorptivity of long-range-transported smoke over the southeast Atlantic

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) from agricultural fires in southern Africa contributes about one-third of the global carbonaceous aerosol load. These particles have strong radiative effects in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), which depend in part on the radiative contrast between the aerosol layer in the free troposphere (FT) and the underlying cloud layer. However, there is large disagreement in model estimates of aerosol-driven climate forcing due to uncertainties in the vertical distribution, optical properties, and life cycle of these particles. This study applies a novel method combining remote sensing observations with regional model outputs to investigate the aging of the BBA and its impact on the optical properties during transatlantic transport from emission sources in Africa to the SEA. Results show distinct variations in extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) and single-scattering albedo (SSA) as aerosols age. Near the source, fresh aerosols are characterized by low mean SSA (0.84) and high EAE (1.85), indicating smaller, highly absorbing particles. By isolating marine contributions from the total column during BBA transport across the SEA, our analysis reveals an initial decrease in BBA absorptivity, with mean FT SSA of 0.87 after 6–7 d, followed by increased absorptivity with mean FT SSA of 0.84 after 10 d, suggesting enhanced absorption due to chemical aging. These findings indicate that BBA becomes more absorbing during extended transport across the SEA, with implications for reducing model uncertainties. Our remote-sensing-based results agree well with previous in situ studies and offer new insights into aerosol–radiation interactions and the energy balance over the SEA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Non-linear dynamic analysis of geared systems

Under driving conditions, a typical geared system may be subjected to large dynamic loads. Also, the vibration level of the geared system is directly related to the noise radiated from the gear box. The steady state dynamic behavior of the system is examined in order to design reliable and quiet transmissions. The scope is limited to a system containing a spur gear pair with backlash and periodically time varying mesh stiffness, and rolling element bearings with clearance type nonlinearities. The internal static transmission error at the gear mesh, which is of importance from high frequency noise and vibration control view point, is considered in the formulation in sinusoidal or periodic form. A dynamic finite element model of the linear time invariant (LTI) system is developed. Effects of several system parameters, such as torsional and transverse flexibilities of the shafts and prime mover/load inertias, on free and forced vibration characteristics are investigated. Several reduced order LTI models are developed and validated by comparing their eigen solutions with the finite element model results. Using the reduced order formulations, a three degree of freedom dynamic model is developed which includes nonlinearities associated with radical clearances in the radial rolling element bearings, backlash between a spur gear pair and periodically varying gear mesh stiffness. As a limiting case, a single degree of freedom model of the spur gear pair with backlash is considered and mathematical conditions for tooth separation and back collision are defined. Both digital simulation technique and analytical models such as method of harmonic balance and the method of multiple scales were used to develop the steady state frequency response characteristics for various nonlinear and/or time varying cases.

Singh, Rajendra↗

The Martian Dust Cycle: Observations and Modeling

The dust cycle is critically important for Mars' current climate system. Suspended atmospheric dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, and thus greatly influences the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Evidence for the presence of dust in the Martian atmosphere can be traced back to yellow clouds telescopically observed as early as the early 19th century. The Mariner 9 orbiter arrived at Mars in November of 1971 to find a planet completely enshrouded in airborne dust. Since that time, the exchange of dust between the planet's surface and atmosphere and the role of airborne dust on Mars' weather and climate has been studied using observations and numerical models. The goal of this talk is to give an overview of the observations and to discuss the successes and challenges associated with modeling the dust cycle. Dust raising events on Mars range in size from meters to hundreds of kilometers. During some years, regional storms merge to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by tens of kelvin. The interannual variability of planet encircling dust storms is poorly understood. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. A low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading are generally observed: one peak occurs before northern winter solstice and one peak occurs after northern winter solstice. Numerical modeling studies attempting to interactively simulate the Martian dust cycle with general circulation models (GCMs) include the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Two dust lifting processes are commonly represented in these models: wind-stress lifting (i.e., saltation) and dust devil lifting. Although the predicted patterns of dust lifting and atmospheric dust loading from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are many notable differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. For example, it is common for models to predict one peak in global dust loading near northern winter solstice due to excessive dust lifting in the Hellas basin at this season. Additionally, it is difficult for models to realistically capture the observed interannual variability in global dust storms. New avenues of dust cycle modeling research include exploring the effects of finite surface dust reservoirs and the effects of coupling the dust and water cycles on the predicted dust cycle.

Kahre, Melinda A.↗

Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning

With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Active Reconditioning of Retired Lithium-ion Battery Packs from Electric Vehicles for Second Life Applications

Utilizing the remaining capacity in retired lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries from electric vehicles (EVs) for second-life applications has shown economic and environmental benefits. However, achieving homogeneity among the capacities of cells before their second life is critical to exploit the benefits. This article proposes a new active reconditioning approach with the potential to make short-term reconditioning of batteries before second life feasible. A control objective map determines each cell's state-of-charge (SOC) operating window based on its capacity relative to other cells. The SOC reference translates into distinct differential currents through the cells, wherein the higher-capacity cells undergo more frequent and deep charge and discharge cycles than their lower-capacity counterparts. The proposed solution achieves capacity homogeneity within the battery pack with low reconditioning time and minimal fade in the overall pack capacity. The feasibility of the reconditioning approach under varying load and environmental conditions is assessed through simulations, encompassing factors such as the number of cycles per day, depth-of-discharge, battery pack temperature, and cell resting time at different SOCs. Furthermore, the simulation model employs a battery pack with sixteen series-connected 75 Ah Kokam lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cells with a 3.6% initial capacity imbalance. A reconditioning time of 1.3 months is achieved with a final capacity imbalance of 0.1% and an overall capacity fade of 0.005%, thereby confirming the viability of the reconditioning process. Moreover, experimental validation using eight retired battery cells from a Nissan Leaf demonstrates a substantial decrease in the capacity imbalance of cells from 9.4% to 2.15% within 78 days, effectively affirming the efficacy of the proposed reconditioning scheme.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Spherical Joint Piston and Connecting Rod Developed

Under an interagency agreement with the Department of Energy, the NASA Lewis Research Center manages a Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine Technology (HDET) research program. The overall program objectives are to reduce fuel consumption through increased engine efficiency, reduce engine exhaust emissions, and provide options for the use of alternative fuels. The program is administered with a balance of research contracts, university research grants, and focused in-house research. The Cummins Engine Company participates in the HDET program under a cost-sharing research contract. Cummins is researching and developing in-cylinder component technologies for heavy-duty diesel engines. An objective of the Cummins research is to develop technologies for a low-emissions, 55-percent thermal efficiency (LE-55) engine. The best current-production engines in this class achieve about 46-percent thermal efficiency. Federal emissions regulations are driving this technology. Regulations for heavy duty diesel engines were tightened in 1994, more demanding emissions regulations are scheduled for 1998, and another step is planned for 2002. The LE-55 engine emissions goal is set at half of the 1998 regulation level and is consistent with plans for 2002 emissions regulations. LE-55 engine design requirements to meet the efficiency target dictate a need to operate at higher peak cylinder pressures. A key technology being developed and evaluated under the Cummins Engine Company LE-55 engine concept is the spherical joint piston and connecting rod. Unlike conventional piston and connecting rod arrangements which are joined by a pin forming a hinged joint, the spherical joint piston and connecting rod use a ball-and-socket joint. The ball-and-socket arrangement enables the piston to have an axisymmetric design allowing rotation within the cylinder. The potential benefits of piston symmetry and rotation are reduced scuffing, improved piston ring sealing, improved lubrication, mechanical and thermal load symmetry, reduced bearing stresses, reduced running clearances, and reduced oil consumption. The spherical joint piston is a monolithic, squeeze-cast, fiber-reinforced aluminum piston. The connecting rod has a ball end that seats on a spherical saddle within the piston and is retained by a pair of aluminum bronze holder rings. The holder rings are secured by a threaded ring that mates with the piston. As part of the ongoing research and development activity, the Cummins Engine Company successfully completed a 100-hr test of the spherical joint piston and connecting rod at LE- 55 peak steady-state engine conditions. In addition, a 100-hr transient cycle test that varied engine conditions between LE-55 no-load and LE-55 full-load was successfully completed.

Source record↗

Verification of diesel spray ignition phenomenon in dual-fuel diesel-piloted premixed natural gas engine

Dual-fuel (DF) engines, in which premixed natural gas and air in an open-type combustion chamber is ignited by diesel-fuel pilot sprays, have been more popular for marine use than pre-chamber spark ignition (PCSI) engines because of their superior durability. However, control of ignition and combustion in DF engines is more difficult than in PCSI engines. In this context, here we focus on the ignition stability of n-heptane pilot-fuel jets injected into a compressed premixed charge of natural gas and air at low-load conditions. To aid understanding of the experimental data, chemical-kinetics simulations were carried out in a simplified engine-environment that provided insight into the chemical effects of methane (CH4) on pilot-fuel ignition. The simulations reveal that CH4 has an effect on both stages of n-heptane autoignition: the small, first-stage, cool-flame-type, low-temperature ignition (LTI) and the larger, second-stage, high-temperature ignition (HTI). As the ratio of pilot-fuel to CH4 entrained into the spray decreases, the initial oxidization of CH4 consumes the OH radicals produced by pilot-fuel decomposition during LTI, thereby inhibiting its progression to HTI. Using imaging diagnostics, the spatial and temporal progression of LTI and HTI in DF combustion are measured in a heavy-duty optical engine, and the imaging data are analyzed to understand the cause of severe fluctuations in ignition timing and combustion completeness at low-load conditions. Images of cool-flame and hydroxyl radical (OH*) chemiluminescence serve as indicators of LTI and HTI, respectively. The cycle-to-cycle and spatial variation in ignition extracted from the imaging data are used as key metrics of comparison. The imaging data indicate that the local concentration of the pilot-fuel and the richness of the surrounding natural-gas air mixture are important for LTI and HTI, but in different ways. In particular, higher injection pressures and shorter injection durations increase the mixing rate, leading to lower concentrations of pilot-fuel more quickly, which can inhibit HTI even as LTI remains relatively robust. Decreasing the injection pressure from 80 MPa to 40 MPa and increasing the injection duration from 500 µs to 760 µs maintained constant pilot-fuel mass, while promoting robust transition from LTI to HTI by effectively slowing the mixing rate. This allows enough residence time for the OH radicals, produced by the two-stage ignition chemistry of the pilot-fuel, to accelerate the transition from LTI to HTI before being consumed by CH4 oxidation. Thus from a practical perspective, for a premixed natural gas fuel–air equivalence-ratio, it is possible to improve the “stability” of the combustion process by solely manipulating the pilot-fuel injection parameters while maintaining constant mass of injected pilot-fuel. This allows for tailoring mixing trajectories to offset changes in fuel ignition chemistry, so as to promote a robust transition from LTI to HTI by changing the balance between the local concentration of the pilot-fuel and richness of the premixed natural gas and air. This could prove to be a valuable tool for combustion design to improve fuel efficiency or reduce noise or perhaps even reduce heat-transfer losses by locating early combustion away from in-cylinder walls.

42 ENGINEERING↗

HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2024 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for ground state atomistic materials modeling

We provide the ensemble of fifteen pre-trained graph foundation models (GFMs) for atomistic materials modeling applications. Each one of the fifteen GFMs has been trained on five open-source datasets that (once aggregated) amount to over 154 million atomistic structures, which cover over two-thirds of the natural elements of the periodic table and that comprises a broad set of organic and inorganic compounds. This vast set of atomistic structures comprises ground state configurations that are dynamically stable (i.e., equilibrated structures with atomic forces approximately close to zero values) as well as dynamically unstable structures (i.e., non-equilibrium structures with non-negligible non-zero values of atomic forces). The ensemble of datasets aggregated does NOT include excited states. The datasets have been curated to remove atomistic structures with spectral norm of the force tensor above 100 eV/angstrom. Moreover, a linear term of the energy was computed for each dataset using a linear regression model that uses the chemical concentration of each natural element as regressor. The linear term predicted by the linear regression model has been subtracted from each original energy value to perform a re-alignment of the energy values across different electronic structures approximation theories performed to generate the diverse multi-source, multi-fidelity datasets. The folder "ADIOS_files" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "ADIOS_files" directory contains 6 sub-directories named as follows: - ANI1x-v3.bp - MPTrj-v3.bp - OC2020-20M-v3.bp - OC2020-v3.bp - OC2022-v3.bp - qm7x-v3.bp Each sub-directory contains the pre-processed datasets converted in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used to the development, training, and performance testing of the ensemble go predictive graph foundation models. Each GFM was developed using HydraGNN (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN) as underlying graph neural network (GNN) architecture. The multi-task learning (MTL) capability of HydraGNN was used to simultaneously train the GFMs on labeled values for direct predictions of energy (a total system property of an atomistic structure that measures the chemical stability) and atomic forces (an atomic level property of an atomistic structure that measures the dynamical stability). The hyper parameters of the GFM have been tuned using scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms implemented in the software DeepHyper (https://github.com/deephyper/deephyper). The pre-training of each HPO trial was performed using distributed data parallelism (DDP) to scale the training across 128 compute nodes of the exascale OLCF supercomputer Frontier. Each HPO trial was trained only for 10 epochs and an early stopping was performed to avoid wasting significant computational resources on GNN architectures that were clearly underperforming. For each HPO trial, the 'omnistat' tool developed by (AMD Research - Advanced Micro Device) was used to measure the total energy consumption in kWh. The ensemble of GFMs was obtained by selecting the fifteen best performing HPO trials. Four models have been selected for their clear advantage in accuracy, and these are the GFMs with IDs 229, 156, 147, 260. Additional eleven models have been selected based on judicious balance between accuracy and energy consumption needed for training, and these are the GFMs with IDs 165, 78, 137, 1, 175, 171, 181, 67, 179, 167, 351. Each selected GFM of the ensemble was continued to cumulate a total of at most 30 epochs. In some cases, the total number of epochs actually performed was les than 30 due to two combined factors: (1) the size of the GFM (i.e., the number of model parameters to train) and (2) the total wall-clock time for which the computational resources could be allocated on OLCF-Frontier. The "Ensemble_of_models" directory contains 15 sub-directories named as follows: - gfm_0.229 - gfm_0.156 - gfm_0.147 - gfm_0.260 - gfm_0.165 - gfm_0.78 - gfm_0.137 - gfm_0.1 - gfm_0.175 - gfm_0.171 - gfm_0.181 - gfm_0.67 - gfm_0.179 - gfm_0.167 - gfm_0.351 Each one of these sub-directories refers to one of the fifteen HPO trials that have been selected to continue the pre-training with at most 30 epochs. With each sub-directory associated with a specific HPO trial, the following files can be found: - config.json: file for argument parsing to develop and train an HydraGNN architecture - gfm_0.ID_epoch_N.pk: file with model parameters for HPO ID trial after N epochs of training The ensemble of fifteen GFM architectures was used for (1) ensemble averaging to stabilize the predictions of energy and atomic forces after pre-training for post-processing analysis and (2) ensemble uncertainty quantification (UQ). The code used to develop, pre-train, and load the pre-trained models for post-processing analysis is available on the ORNL-GitHub at the following link: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/tree/Predictive_GFM_2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

COnfirmation using Gamma-ray Non-Imaging Zero-knowledge ANti-mask Time-encoding (COGNIZANT) Final Summary Report

In potential future arms reduction treaties in which the numbers of nuclear warheads may approach small numbers, using delivery systems as a proxy for the warheads themselves may be insufficient. Therefore, a technical means of verifying the presence of a nuclear warhead may become necessary. Verifying that a declared item actually is a warhead is technically challenging within a verification regime: providing assurance to the monitoring party that a presented item is a warhead while protecting sensitive information about that warhead may be required. It is generally believed that strong assurance will require the confirmation of key attributes that may reveal closely-guarded critical design information. This provides high confidence to the monitoring party, but presents a risk of information loss to the host. A verification system must overcome this hurdle. Over the last several decades, systems have been developed that balance host and monitoring partner needs by using sensitive information to confirm treaty accountable items (TAI) as warheads while sequestering that information behind an information barrier (1). These are designed to meet the needs of the host but places the onus on the monitor to authenticate the hardware, firmware, and software. Authentication requires that the monitor confirm that all components of the system have not been modified and work as intended. In 2014, Glaser et al. proposed applying the concept of “zero knowledge protocols” (ZKP) from the field of cryptography to the problem of warhead verification (2). In mathematical cryptography, ZKP is accomplished by challenging one party to solve a problem that is only possible if that party possesses the information being authenticated. After repeated challenges, the party provides confidence that it possesses this information without revealing any details about the information itself. Systems have been in development based on this idea at both Princeton and MIT (2) (3) (4). The final measurement results produced by these systems can be viewed by both the host and the monitoring party without the worry of revealing sensitive information. However, in both of these physical implementations, there remains an information barrier within the system. The need for a digital information barrier to protect a measurement result is eliminated, but it has been replaced with the need to sequester physical components of the system, potentially obfuscating the measurement process itself. Both implementations physically insert information into the system that requires protection to prevent undesired disclosure of sensitive information: in the Princeton method, one must physically load the complement of the expected image of a true warhead into the system, and in the MIT technique, one loads a collection of spectator foils whose thicknesses physically encrypt a measured spectrum. This complicates authentication of the hardware and measurement process. The CONFIDANTE/COGNIZANT concept developed in this project do not load sensitive information into the system at any time, and could therefore open the possibility of allowing the inspector to not only view the final data but also the measurement as it is being performed and all associated equipment.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Development of a Data Fusion Methodology for Lineload Aerodynamic Databases for a Launch Vehicle during Liftoff and Transition

The need for databases for the distributed loading on launch vehicles during the early portion of flight necessitates the use of expensive computational flows in regimes where wake effects dominate. While also being expensive, this is a regime that computational tools tend to historically have problems simulating accurately. To help tackle this problem, a method of data fusion to combine computational results to wind tunnel derived force and moment data is developed. Using this method, significant reduction in computational costs and increases in confidence of the final product is possible and has been used to generate several databases for the Space Launch System (SLS) at NASA. While the full details of database generation are not part of this work, the crucial method at its core is developed here. Two SLS geometries are used throughout the work to demonstrate the techniques. These are two of the larger geometries and represent both planned crewed missions to the Moon as well as potential cargo missions to deep space. The method uses principal component analysis (PCA) to generate a reduced ordered model (ROM) to help fill in the full parameter space. Other similar techniques are explored, but were not found to have a significant result on the predictions of the ROM. Because the full number of components are kept to generate the model, this lack of difference is expected. This method is then extended to ensure that predicted surfaces match trusted force and moment data derived from wind tunnel testing. This extension is done by setting up a constrained optimization problem in order to minimize the deviation from the surface resolved computational data while still integrating to the desired values. When generating the constrained optimization problem, a weighting factor to balance these competing needs is introduced. The work compares previously introduced weighting terms from similar work to the proposed terms and shows that the previously used terms do not have as desirable behavior in this flow regime. This method is then expanded by developing a technique to incorporate uncertainty quantification into the developed data fusion methodology. This expansion takes a two pronged approach. One examines transferring the uncertainties in the force and moment database and characterizes how those adjustments change the predicted lineloads. The second looks at model form error and looks how rebuilding the model using slightly different data changes the predictions. These two terms are then combined in order to create an uncertainty model that takes both effects into account. The limitations of the proposed methods is then discussed as well as possible techniques to address these shortcomings.

Launch Vehicles↗

Adaptation of the Skeletal System during Long-duration Spaceflight

This review will highlight evidence from crew members flown on space missions greater than 90 days to suggest that the adaptations of the skeletal system to mechanical unloading may predispose crew members to an accelerated onset of osteoporosis after return to Earth. By definition, osteoporosis is a skeletal disorder - characterized by low bone mineral density and structural deterioration - that reduces the ability of bones to resist fracture under the loading of normal daily activities. Involutional or agerelated osteoporosis is readily recognized as a syndrome afflicting the elderly population because of the insipid and asymptomatic nature of bone loss that does not typically manifest as fractures until after age approximately 60. It is not the thesis of this review to suggest that spaceflight-induced bone loss is similar to bone loss induced by metabolic bone disease; rather this review draws parallels between the rapid and earlier loss in females that occurs with menopause and the rapid bone loss in middle-aged crew members that occurs with spaceflight unloading and how the cumulative effects of spaceflight and ageing could be detrimental, particularly if skeletal effects are totally or partially irreversible. In brief, this report will provide detailed evidence that long-duration crew members, exposed to the weightlessness of space for the typical long-duration (4-6 months) mission on Mir or the International Space Station -- 1. Display bone resorption that is aggressive, that targets normally weight-bearing skeletal sites, that is uncoupled to bone formation and that results in areal BMD deficits that can range between 6-20% of preflight BMD; 2. Display compartment-specific declines in volumetric BMD in the proximal femur (a skeletal site of clinical interest) that significantly reduces its compressive and bending strength and which may account for the loss in hip bone strength (i.e., force to failure); 3. Recover BMD over a post-flight time period that exceeds spaceflight exposure but for which the restoration of whole bone strength remains an open issue and may involve structural alteration; and 4. Display risk factors for bone loss -- such as the negative calcium balance and down-regulated calcium-regulating hormones in response to bone atrophy -- that can be compounded by the constraints of conducting mission operations (inability to provide essential nutrients and vitamins). The full characterization of the skeletal response to mechanical unloading in space is not complete. In particular, countermeasures used to date have been inadequate and it is not yet known whether more appropriate countermeasures can prevent the changes in bone that have been found in previous flights, knowledge gaps related to the effects of prolonged (greater than or equal to 6 months) space exposure and to partial gravity environments are substantial, and longitudinal measurements on crew members after spaceflight are required to assess the full impact on skeletal recovery.

Sibonga, Jean D.↗

Comparison of aircraft measurements during GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA

The indirect effect of atmospheric aerosol particles on the Earth's radiation balance remains one of the most uncertain components affecting climate change throughout the industrial period. The large uncertainty is partly due to the incomplete understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions. One objective of the GoAmazon2014/5 and the ACRIDICON (Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation, and Radiation Interactions and Dynamics of Convective Cloud Systems)-CHUVA (Cloud Processes of the Main Precipitation Systems in Brazil) projects was to understand the influence of emissions from the tropical megacity of Manaus (Brazil) on the surrounding atmospheric environment of the rainforest and to investigate its role in the life cycle of convective clouds. During one of the intensive observation periods (IOPs) in the dry season from 1 September to 10 October 2014, comprehensive measurements of trace gases and aerosol properties were carried out at several ground sites. In a coordinated way, the advanced suites of sophisticated in situ instruments were deployed aboard both the US Department of Energy Gulfstream-1 (G1) aircraft and the German High Altitude and Long-Range Research Aircraft (HALO) during three coordinated flights on 9 and 21 September and 1 October. Here, we report on the comparison of measurements collected by the two aircraft during these three flights. Such comparisons are challenging but essential for assessing the data quality from the individual platforms and quantifying their uncertainty sources. Similar instruments mounted on the G1 and HALO collected vertical profile measurements of aerosol particle number concentrations and size distribution, cloud condensation nuclei concentrations, ozone and carbon monoxide mixing ratios, cloud droplet size distributions, and downward solar irradiance. We find that the above measurements from the two aircraft agreed within the measurement uncertainties. The relative fraction of the aerosol chemical composition measured by instruments on HALO agreed with the corresponding G1 data, although the total mass loadings only have a good agreement at high altitudes. Furthermore, possible causes of the discrepancies between measurements on the G1 and HALO are examined in this paper. Based on these results, criteria for meaningful aircraft measurement comparisons are discussed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Stratospheric Aerosol Measurements

Stratospheric aerosols affect the atmospheric energy balance by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation. They also can alter stratospheric chemical cycles by catalyzing heterogeneous reactions which markedly perturb odd nitrogen, chlorine and ozone levels. Aerosol measurements by satellites began in NASA in 1975 with the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) program, to be followed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) starting in 1979. Both programs employ the solar occultation, or Earth limb extinction, techniques. Major results of these activities include the discovery of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in both hemispheres in winter, illustrations of the impacts of major (El Chichon 1982 and Pinatubo 1991) eruptions, and detection of a negative global trend in lower stratospheric/upper tropospheric aerosol extinction. This latter result can be considered a triumph of successful worldwide sulfur emission controls. The SAGE record will be continued and improved by SAGE III, currently scheduled for multiple launches beginning in 2000 as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The satellite program has been supplemented by in situ measurements aboard the ER-2 (20 km ceiling) since 1974, and from the DC-8 (13 km ceiling) aircraft beginning in 1989. Collection by wire impactors and subsequent electron microscopic and X-ray energy-dispersive analyses, and optical particle spectrometry have been the principle techniques. Major findings are: (1) The stratospheric background aerosol consists of dilute sulfuric acid droplets of around 0.1 micrometer modal diameter at concentration of tens to hundreds of monograms per cubic meter; (2) Soot from aircraft amounts to a fraction of one percent of the background total aerosol; (3) Volcanic eruptions perturb the sulfuric acid, but not the soot, aerosol abundance by several orders of magnitude; (4) PSCs contain nitric acid at temperatures below 195K, supporting chemical hypotheses implicating manmade fluorocarbons as cause of the --'ozone hole'; (5) The current soot loading is too small to be of environmental (radiative and chemical) consequence. However, the fractal nature of soot distinguishes it aerodynamically and radiatively from sulfuric acid droplets such that its stratospheric residence time is longer, mainly because of vertical transport against gravity due to gravito-photophoretic forces. Thus it may accumulate and become of environmental concern in the future.

Pueschel, Rudolf, F.↗

Fuel-Efficient Descent and Landing Guidance Logic for a Safe Lunar Touchdown

The landing of a crewed lunar lander on the surface of the Moon will be the climax of any Moon mission. At touchdown, the landing mechanism must absorb the load imparted on the lander due to the vertical component of the lander's touchdown velocity. Also, a large horizontal velocity must be avoided because it could cause the lander to tip over, risking the life of the crew. To be conservative, the worst-case lander's touchdown velocity is always assumed in designing the landing mechanism, making it very heavy. Fuel-optimal guidance algorithms for soft planetary landing have been studied extensively. In most of these studies, the lander is constrained to touchdown with zero velocity. With bounds imposed on the magnitude of the engine thrust, the optimal control solutions typically have a "bang-bang" thrust profile: the thrust magnitude "bangs" instantaneously between its maximum and minimum magnitudes. But the descent engine might not be able to throttle between its extremes instantaneously. There is also a concern about the acceptability of "bang-bang" control to the crew. In our study, the optimal control of a lander is formulated with a cost function that penalizes both the touchdown velocity and the fuel cost of the descent engine. In this formulation, there is not a requirement to achieve a zero touchdown velocity. Only a touchdown velocity that is consistent with the capability of the landing gear design is required. Also, since the nominal throttle level for the terminal descent sub-phase is well below the peak engine thrust, no bound on the engine thrust is used in our formulated problem. Instead of bangbang type solution, the optimal thrust generated is a continuous function of time. With this formulation, we can easily derive analytical expressions for the optimal thrust vector, touchdown velocity components, and other system variables. These expressions provide insights into the "physics" of the optimal landing and terminal descent maneuver. These insights could help engineers to achieve a better "balance" between the conflicting needs of achieving a safe touchdown velocity, a low-weight landing mechanism, low engine fuel cost, and other design goals. In comparing the computed optimal control results with the preflight landing trajectory design of the Apollo-11 mission, we noted interesting similarities between the two missions.

guidance logic↗

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Optimizing an Integrated Renewable-Electrolysis System

Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that is used in a wide variety of chemical and industrial processes. Producing hydrogen using electrolysis can enable integration of multiple sectors including electricity, heating, and industrial sectors; however, the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis remains a challenge for encouraging greater adoption. With growing amounts of renewable generation on the California grid, there is downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices, particularly during the afternoon from photovoltaics (PV). These lower, or even potentially negative prices, challenge the business cases for new and existing PV plants. In addition, as the grid transitions to less flexible generation, there is greater need for system flexibility. To help improve the economics for both solar PV and hydrogen production using electrolyzers, we explore the benefit of combining PV and electrolysis systems. The optimal breakeven hydrogen production cost for six unique market participation configurations is calculated at six candidate locations where PV is already installed. The six market configurations include islanded, separated, retail, net energy metering (NEM), hybrid retail/wholesale and wholesale. Using the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model (RODeO) model, the optimal breakeven hydrogen price over the lifetime of the equipment is calculated. The cost includes production, storage, and compression in preparation for gaseous delivery trucks. Revenue streams include the sale of hydrogen, low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits, renewable electricity sold to the grid, and Renewable Energy Credits (REC). The costs included are the electricity costs, capital and fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM) for the electrolyzer, PV, and storage and compression systems as well as taxes and financing costs. In addition, cost reductions are achieved through retail and wholesale rate optimization, by which electricity is purchased at the lowest price and sold, if possible, at the highest price. For all locations, the breakeven hydrogen production cost results show that, in the order of decreasing cost, the system configurations are islanded (highest), separated, NEM, retail, hybrid retail/wholesale, and wholesale (lowest). The resulting system design balances between the capital and maintenance cost components, the operation costs (i.e., electricity costs) and the additional market revenues. The integration of solar PV and electrolysis is shown to provide a mutually beneficial relationship. For PV, integration with electrolysis offers the potential to hedge against wholesale market price volatility, and integration with electrolysis may offer the potential to defer or avoid transmission investment to deliver power to the point-of-use and instead use it on-site. When compared with SMR without considering any renewable hydrogen premiums, this study finds that PV + Electrolysis systems with current costs are likely not competitive; however, with cost reductions for electrolysis equipment consistent with DOE projections, it was found that systems with wholesale market access would be competitive, largely on account of both low capital costs and low-cost electricity. The electrolysis units can provide greater flexibility than is required based on retail rate optimization, so there is an opportunity for a utility or CAISO to increase system flexibility with PV + Electrolysis systems in return for commensurate compensation. In this way, there are potentially several solutions that fall between the hybrid configuration and the wholesale configuration that could provide sufficient compensation for a PV + Electrolysis unit to compete with SMR while also providing greater flexibility to the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

University of Hawai‘i, Shallow Geothermal Resources: Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (Final Report)

Scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have teamed up with the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology. UH requested this analysis to evaluate opportunities in building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai‘i. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that, over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, so sites with large enough values of these properties must be selected. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Primarily, closed-loop systems have been investigated. Other options considered are open-loop systems and using cool seawater as the chilling source. Project work investigated the feasibility of GHE technology at two scales. At the island scale, GIS layers of various attributes relevant for GHE were combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i. At the local scale, a hydrogeologic model for the subsurface component of a closed-loop system was developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus. This site is considered promising because the rock below and immediately downgradient of the borefield is highly permeable, consisting of a subsurface karst system (limestone containing high-permeability open channels), which is underlain by a thick, high-permeability fractured basalt. Moreover, the site is near the base of the Ko‘olau Range, providing a large hydraulic head gradient. Thus, groundwater flow through the site is expected to be large, enabling efficient removal of heated groundwater. A full-GHE-system model of the site was also developed, with a simplified representation of the subsurface, in which groundwater flow is not considered and heat transfer is purely by conduction. Using the building cooling load data provided by UH, simulation results show that with groundwater flow present, a GHE can operate successfully for at least 10 years, but with no groundwater flow, the subsurface begins to heat up after only one year of operation, making the GHE unviable within 2-6 years. The team also developed a techno-economic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air-conditioning system. The GHE system is advantageous economically if favorable tax incentives and interest rates can be obtained.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗