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Enhancing Long-Term Trend Simulation of OH Through the Synergy of Model Simulations and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO 2 and HCHO Retrievals

During the last few years, tremendous progress has been made to develop an efficient parameterization module using agile machine learning techniques. The aim of this module is to provide dynamic response of the tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) to its major drivers, including trace gases, aerosols, clouds, and meteorology. This module, named ECCOH (pronounced “echo”) and implemented in NASA’s GEOS-5 global model, offers an unrealized opportunity to unravel the convoluted response of OH to its underlying drivers while approaching the accuracy of full-chemistry without incurring excessive computational costs, making it suitable for climate models. However, the accurate representation of OH in ECCOH poses challenges due to the lack of representation of some of its critical inputs such as the abundance of NO 2 and HCHO concentrations. As such, we leverage the well-characterized satellite observations of NO2 and HCHO columns from Aura OMI to enhance their representation in ECCOH using an optimal interpolation method for the time period of 2005 - present. We show how the inclusion of OMI information can affect the spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of OH, CO, and CH 4 across the globe. Additionally, we underscore the necessity of obtaining high-fidelity information regarding tropospheric ozone from the southern hemisphere from space, a region currently lacking full verification in models, posing a challenge to get a reasonable amount of chemical sink for CH 4 .

OH↗
DOE OSTI2012

Improving Cyber-Security of Smart Grid Systems via Anomaly Detection and Linguistic Domain Knowledge

The planned large scale deployment of smart grid network devices will generate a large amount of information exchanged over various types of communication networks. The implementation of these critical systems will require appropriate cyber-security measures. A network anomaly detection solution is considered in this work. In common network architectures multiple communications streams are simultaneously present, making it difficult to build an anomaly detection solution for the entire system. In addition, common anomaly detection algorithms require specification of a sensitivity threshold, which inevitably leads to a tradeoff between false positives and false negatives rates. In order to alleviate these issues, this paper proposes a novel anomaly detection architecture. The designed system applies the previously developed network security cyber-sensor method to individual selected communication streams allowing for learning accurate normal network behavior models. Furthermore, the developed system dynamically adjusts the sensitivity threshold of each anomaly detection algorithm based on domain knowledge about the specific network system. It is proposed to model this domain knowledge using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic rules, which linguistically describe the relationship between various features of the network communication and the possibility of a cyber attack. The proposed method was tested on experimental smart grid system demonstrating enhanced cyber-security.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utility-scale Building Type Assignment Using Smart Meter Data

United States building energy use accounted for 40% of total energy use, 74% of peak demand, and $412 billion in 2019. Building energy modeling allows researchers to simulate building physics, gain insights into possible energy/demand saving opportunities, and assess cost-effective resilience amidst climate change. Many building features needed to create building energy models are readily available such as 2D footprints and LiDAR (height). A critical feature that is not generally obtainable is the building type. In partnership with a utility, a years worth of real-world, 15-minute electrical use data has been examined. The smart meter data is compared to 97 different prototype building energy models to assign building type. Real-world considerations including data preparation, quality assurance, and handling of missing values for advanced metering infrastructure data are addressed. Euclidean distance for pattern-matching of energy use, dynamic time warping, and time-window statistics with machine learning are compared for determining building type from measured electricity use.

Bass, Brett↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invertible Neural Networks for Aerodynamic Design of Wind Turbine Blades

The state-of-the-practice methods for aerodynamic design of wind turbine blads use linearized blade element momentum theory (BEM) to optimize the twist and chord profiles from a pre-selected set of 2D airfoil shapes. In this work, we apply invertible neural network (INN) tools to enable the rapid inverse aerodynamic design of wind turbine blades including component airfoils. The INN is trained on data obtained through the use of robust automated mesh generation and the HAMSTR computational fluid dynamics solver with advanced turbulence and transition models validated for turbine applications. Our design technique is a significant improvement over the state-of-the-practice linearized blade element momentum (BEM) techniques in capturing 3D nonlinear aerodynamic effects that are critical for optimal design of the rotors. This is made possible by developing sparse, invertible neural networks (INNs) for inverse design and optimization that realize a 100x cost reduction compared to adjoint-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches, while enabling increased robustness of the final design. We demonstrate the INN tool for design of a section of the NREL 5-MW blade. All generated shapes satisfy the desired aerodynamic characteristics, demonstrating the success of the INN approach for inverse design of wind turbine blades.

aerodynamic design↗
DOE OSTI2025

Encrypted Control Using Modified Learning With Errors-based Schemes

Cyber-physical systems (CPSs) require reliable, safe, and secure control of critical infrastructure, combining computational and networking capabilities, which heighten the risk of cyber attacks. These attacks can disrupt the physical process, causing unforeseen consequences. One solution is the use of fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) to protect the control loop, allowing for secure computations and communications without compromising signal and control system privacy. The challenge with FHE, however, is its requirement for inputs to be integers. This paper introduces a modified Learning With Errors (LWE) FHE approach that encodes control system dynamics and signals into integers. Our proposed scheme leverages a generalized LWE encoding function and modifies the Gentry-Sahai-Waters (GSW) gadget decomposition tool to encrypt the control system. Using the modified LWE scheme, we formalize a fully encrypted control system, supported by simulated results.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Matrix-Model Simulations Using Quantum Computing, Deep Learning, and Lattice Monte Carlo

Matrix quantum mechanics plays various important roles in theoretical physics, such as a holographic description of quantum black holes, and it underpins the only practical numerical approach to the study of complex high-dimensional supergravity theories. Understanding quantum black holes and the role of entanglement in a holographic setup is of paramount importance for the realization of a quantum theory of gravity. Moreover, a complete numerical understanding of the holographic duality and the emergence of geometric space-time features from microscopic degrees of freedom could pave the way for new discoveries in quantum information science. Euclidean lattice Monte Carlo simulations are the de facto numerical tool for understanding the spectrum of large matrix models and have been used to test the holographic duality. However, they are not tailored to extract dynamical properties or even the quantum wave function of the ground state of matrix models. Quantum computing and deep learning provide potentially useful approaches to study the dynamics of matrix quantum mechanics. If successful in the context of matrix models, these rapidly improving numerical techniques could become the new Swiss army knife of quantum gravity practitioners. In this paper, we perform the first systematic survey for quantum computing and deep-learning approaches to matrix quantum mechanics, comparing them to lattice Monte Carlo simulations. These provide baseline benchmarks before addressing more complicated problems. In particular, we test the performance of each method by calculating the low-energy spectrum.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards computational polar-topotronics: Multiscale neural-network quantum molecular dynamics simulations of polar vortex states in SrTiO3/PbTiO3 nanowires

Recent discoveries of polar topological structures ( e.g ., skyrmions and merons) in ferroelectric/paraelectric heterostructures have opened a new field of polar topotronics. However, how complex interplay of photoexcitation, electric field and mechanical strain controls these topological structures remains elusive. To address this challenge, we have developed a computational approach at the nexus of machine learning and first-principles simulations. Our multiscale neural-network quantum molecular dynamics molecular mechanics approach achieves orders-of-magnitude faster computation, while maintaining quantum-mechanical accuracy for atoms within the region of interest. This approach has enabled us to investigate the dynamics of vortex states formed in PbTiO 3 nanowires embedded in SrTiO 3 . We find topological switching of these vortex states to topologically trivial, uniformly polarized states using electric field and trivial domain-wall states using shear strain. These results, along with our earlier results on optical control of polar topology, suggest an exciting new avenue toward opto-electro-mechanical control of ultrafast, ultralow-power polar topotronic devices.

Linker, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine learning a bond order potential model to study thermal transport in WSe 2 nanostructures

Here, nanostructures of transition metal di-chalcogenides (TMDCs) exhibit exotic thermal, chemical and electronic properties, enabling diverse applications from thermoelectrics and catalysis to nanoelectronics. The thermal properties of these nanoscale TMDCs are of particular interest for thermoelectric applications. Thermal transport studies on nanotubes and nanoribbons remain intractable to first principles calculations whereas existing classical molecular models treat the two chalcogen layers in a monolayer with different atom types; this imposes serious limitations in studying multi-layered TMDCs and dynamical phenomena such as nucleation and growth. Here, we overcome these limitations using machine learning (ML) and introduce a bond order potential (BOP) trained against first principles training data to capture the structure, dynamics, and thermal transport properties of a model TMDC such as WSe 2 . The training is performed using a hierarchical objective genetic algorithm workflow to accurately describe the energetics, as well as thermal and mechanical properties of a free-standing sheet. As a representative case study, we perform molecular dynamics simulations using the ML-BOP model to study the structure and temperature-dependent thermal conductivity of WSe 2 tubes and ribbons of different chiralities. We observe slightly higher thermal conductivities along the armchair direction than zigzag for WSe 2 monolayers but the opposite effect for nanotubes, especially of smaller diameters. We trace the origin of these differences to the anisotropy in thermal transport and the restricted momentum selection rules for phonon–phonon Umpklapp scattering. The developed ML-BOP model is of broad interest and will facilitate studies on nucleation and growth of low dimensional WSe 2 structures as well as their transport properties for thermoelectric and thermal management applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of interatomic potential and effect of ordering on defect properties in CrMnV

Developing materials that can withstand extreme environments, such as high radiation doses and elevated temperatures, is crucial for next-generation particle accelerators, including the 2.4 MW Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility. High-Entropy Alloys have emerged as promising candidates for beam window materials due to their superior mechanical strength, corrosion resistance, and radiation tolerance. In this study, we focus on the Cr–Mn–V alloy system, developing and employing machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) to investigate the formation of an ordered phase and its influence on defect properties. Using hybrid Monte Carlo-Molecular Dynamics simulations, we observe the formation of a B2-ordered phase at lower temperatures, consistent with Density Functional Theory (DFT) predictions. Ordered structures display a bimodal distribution of migration energies and reduced mean square displacement values, indicating suppressed vacancy diffusion. Our results also show that the migration energy barrier varies based on the atomic species, with Mn and V exhibiting the highest and lowest average barriers, respectively. These findings suggest that atomic ordering inhibits defect mobility, potentially enhancing the radiation resistance of CrMnV alloys. The validated MLIP provides a reliable framework for simulations that are faster than traditional DFT while maintaining the accuracy required to study defect and ordering properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric Structure Prediction for Infrasound Propagation Modeling Using Deep Learning

Abstract Infrasound is generated by a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources. Infrasonic waves travel through the dynamic atmosphere, which can change on the order of minutes to hours. Infrasound propagation largely depends on the wind and temperature structure of the atmosphere. Numerical weather prediction models are available to provide atmospheric specifications, but uncertainties in these models exist and they are computationally expensive to run. Machine learning has proven useful in predicting tropospheric weather using Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) networks. An LSTM network is utilized to make atmospheric specification predictions up to ∼30 km for three different training and testing scenarios: (a) the model is trained and tested using only radiosonde data from the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, (b) the model is trained on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US, excluding the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, which was reserved for testing, and (c) the model is trained and tested on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US. Long Short‐Term Memory predictions are compared to a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis model and show cases where the LSTM outperforms, performs equally as well, or underperforms in comparison to the state‐of‐the‐art. Regional and temporal trends in model performance across the US are also discussed. Results suggest that the LSTM model is a viable tool for predicting atmospheric specifications for infrasound propagation modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inverse Mapping of the Collision Kernel and Wall Flux Scaling in a Tall Convection‐Cloud Chamber Using Local Sensors and Knowledge‐Informed Deep Learning

Droplet collision–coalescence is a crucial process in cloud physics, but accurately representing this process under different dynamical conditions remains challenging. A proposed future convective‐cloud chamber aims to investigate this key process, but the method for observing it remains unclear, even though it is theoretically established that collision‐coalescence will occur. This study serves as a proof‐of‐concept demonstration of how knowledge‐informed deep learning, combined with measurement data from local sensors in the chamber, can be used to estimate the collision kernels, which determine how the droplet size distribution evolves during collision‐coalescence. In addition to estimating the collision kernel, we also address wall fluxes, another uncertain but important process that acts as a source of heat and moisture in the chamber. Ensemble runs of large‐eddy simulations are conducted by scaling the wall fluxes and the collision kernel, while the measured flow and cloud properties are used as inputs for a neural network. Results indicate that this approach successfully maps the scaling of wall fluxes and the collision kernel with biases of approximately 1% or less relative to the range of the target data. This proof‐of‐concept lays the groundwork for future applications; when the real measurements are available, real sensor data combined with the trained model presented in this work will enable estimation of the actual wall fluxes and collision kernel.

cloud chamber↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weak-Form Latent Space Dynamics Identification

This software showcases the enhanced capabilities of the Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI) algorithm through the application of the weak form, resulting in WLaSDI. WLaSDI first compresses the data, then projects it onto test functions, and subsequently learns the local latent space models. Notably, WLaSDI demonstrates significantly improved robustness to noise. Using weak-form equation learning techniques, WLaSDI achieves local latent space modeling. Compared to the standard sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) used in LaSDI, the variance reduction of the weak form ensures robust and precise latent space recovery, enabling fast, robust, and accurate simulations. We demonstrate the efficacy of WLaSDI against LaSDI using several common benchmark examples, including viscid and inviscid Burgers', radial advection, and heat conduction. For instance, in 1D inviscid Burgers' simulations with up to 100% Gaussian white noise, WLaSDI maintains relative errors consistently below 6%, whereas LaSDI errors can exceed 10,000%. Similarly, in radial advection simulations, WLaSDI keeps relative errors below 16%, compared to potential errors of up to 10,000% with LaSDI. Additionally, WLaSDI achieves significant speedups, such as a 140X speedup in 1D Burgers' simulations compared to the corresponding full order model.

Choi, Youngsoo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Active learning for robust, high-complexity reactive atomistic simulations

Machine learned reactive force fields based on polynomial expansions have been shown to be highly effective for describing simulations involving reactive materials. Nevertheless, the highly flexible nature of these models can give rise to a large number of candidate parameters for complicated systems. In these cases, reliable parameterization requires a well-formed training set, which can be difficult to achieve through standard iterative fitting methods. In this paper, we present an active learning approach based on cluster analysis and inspired by Shannon information theory to enable semi-automated generation of informative training sets and robust machine learned force fields. The use of this tool is demonstrated for development of a model based on linear combinations of Chebyshev polynomials explicitly describing up to four-body interactions, for a chemically and structurally diverse system of C/O under extreme conditions. We show that this flexible training database management approach enables development of models exhibiting excellent agreement with Kohn–Sham density functional theory in terms of structure, dynamics, and speciation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2020

NeMO-Net – The Neural Multi-Modal Observation & Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment

We present NeMO-Net, the Srst open-source deep convolutional neural network (CNN) and interactive learning and training software aimed at assessing the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through habitat mapping into 10 biological and physical classes. Shallow marine systems, particularly coral reefs, are under significant pressures due to climate change, ocean acidification, and other anthropogenic pressures, leading to rapid, often devastating changes, in these fragile and diverse ecosystems. Historically, remote sensing of shallow marine habitats has been limited to meter-scale imagery due to the optical effects of ocean wave distortion, refraction, and optical attenuation. NeMO-Net combines 3D cm-scale distortion-free imagery captured using NASA FluidCam and Fluid lensing remote sensing technology with low resolution airborne and spaceborne datasets of varying spatial resolutions, spectral spaces, calibrations, and temporal cadence in a supercomputer-based machine learning framework. NeMO-Net augments and improves the benthic habitat classification accuracy of low-resolution datasets across large geographic ad temporal scales using high-resolution training data from FluidCam.NeMO-Net uses fully convolutional networks based upon ResNet and ReSneNet to perform semantic segmentation of remote sensing imagery of shallow marine systems captured by drones, aircraft, and satellites, including WorldView and Sentinel. Deep Laplacian Pyramid Super-Resolution Networks (LapSRN) alongside Domain Adversarial Neural Networks (DANNs) are used to reconstruct high resolution information from low resolution imagery, and to recognize domain-invariant features across datasets from multiple platforms to achieve high classification accuracies, overcoming inter-sensor spatial, spectral and temporal variations.Finally, we share our online active learning and citizen science platform, which allows users to provide interactive training data for NeMO-Net in 2D and 3D, integrated within a deep learning framework. We present results from the PaciSc Islands including Fiji, Guam and Peros Banhos 1 1 2 1 3 1 where 24-class classification accuracy exceeds 91%.

Chirayath, Ved↗
DOE OSTI2023

Active Learning Framework

Machine learning (ML) of interatomic potentials show great promise to accelerate scientific simulation, e.g., by emulating expensive computations at a high accuracy but much reduced computational cost. Training datasets are calculated from computationally expensive ab initio quantum mechanics methods, density functional theory (DFT). Trained on this data, an ML model can be very successful in predicting energy and forces for new atomic configurations. A critical factor is the quality and diversity of the training dataset. Thus, a highly automated approach to dataset construction based on active learning framework is designed suitable for material physics. The active learning scheme begins with fully randomized atomic configurations. Then, many Molecular Dynamics (MD) trajectories are simulated using current ML potentials, where each MD trajectory is initialized to a random disordered configuration. The temperature is varied in order to diversify the sampled configuration during these simulations. The variance of predictions for eight neural networks within an ensemble is analyzed to determine whether the model is operating as expected. This helps in determining whether collecting more data would be helpful to the model by checking the ensemble variance is greater than the threshold. In this case, the MD trajectory is terminated and the final atomic configuration is placed on a queue (SQL database) for DFT calculations and added to training dataset. Periodically, ML model is retrained to the updated training model. This Active Learning loop is iterated until the cost of MD simulations becomes prohibitively expensive. The MD simulations will hopefully be sufficiently robust to support nucleation after many active learning iterations. In this sense, active learning scheme must automatically discover the important low energy and nonequilibrium physics.

Nebgen, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS2024

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗