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Supporting Arctic Research, Engagement, and Policy With GMAO’s Next Generation Reanalysis & Prediction Systems

Modeling efforts at NASA aim to advance scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes and to improve our ability to predict climate, weather, and natural hazards. These efforts are particularly relevant for communities, scientists and stakeholders working and living in the Arctic. Here, we highlight current and planned Earth system prediction and data assimilation products from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). We invite feedback and discussion on GMAO’s model and reanalysis development in support of Arctic research, engagement, and policy.

Lauren C Andrews↗

Effect of Winglets on a First-Generation Jet Transport Wing. 2: Pressure and Spanwise Load Distributions for a Semispan Model at High Subsonic Speeds

Pressure and spanwise load distributions on a first-generation jet transport semispan model at high subsonic speeds are presented for the basic wing and for configurations with an upper winglet only, upper and lower winglets, and a simple wing-tip extension. Selected data are discussed to show the general trends and effects of the various configurations.

Montoya, L. C.↗

Other satellite atmospheres: Their nature and planetary interactions

The Io sodium cloud model was successfully generated to include the time and spatial dependent lifetime sink produced by electron impact ionization as the plasma torus oscillates about the satellite plane, while simultaneously including the additional time dependence introduced by the action of solar radiation pressure on the cloud. Very preliminary model results are discussed and continuing progress in analysis of the peculiar directional features of the sodium cloud is also reported. Significant progress was made in developing a model for the Io potassium cloud and differences anticipated between the potassium and sodium cloud are described. An effort to understand the hydrogen atmosphere associated with Saturn's rings was initiated and preliminary results of a very and study are summarized.

Smyth, W. H.↗

Graph-based real-time fault diagnostics

A real-time fault detection and diagnosis capability is absolutely crucial in the design of large-scale space systems. Some of the existing AI-based fault diagnostic techniques like expert systems and qualitative modelling are frequently ill-suited for this purpose. Expert systems are often inadequately structured, difficult to validate and suffer from knowledge acquisition bottlenecks. Qualitative modelling techniques sometimes generate a large number of failure source alternatives, thus hampering speedy diagnosis. In this paper we present a graph-based technique which is well suited for real-time fault diagnosis, structured knowledge representation and acquisition and testing and validation. A Hierarchical Fault Model of the system to be diagnosed is developed. At each level of hierarchy, there exist fault propagation digraphs denoting causal relations between failure modes of subsystems. The edges of such a digraph are weighted with fault propagation time intervals. Efficient and restartable graph algorithms are used for on-line speedy identification of failure source components.

Padalkar, S.↗

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The objectives are to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; implement satellite analysis procedures in support of this effort, and to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Composite satellite radiance patterns describe features detectable well before the development of synoptic scale tropical plumes. These typical features were extracted from historical files of Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) radiance observations for a pair of tropical plumes which developed during January 1989. Signals were inserted into the NMC operational medium range forecast model and a suite of model integrations were conducted. Many of the 48 h model errors of the historical forecasts were eliminated by the inclusion of more complete satellite observations. Three studies in satellite radiance analysis progressed. An analysis which blended TOVS moisture channels, OLR observations and European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis to generate fields of total precipitable water comparable to those estimated from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) mu-wave observations. This study demonstrated that a 10 y climatology of precipitable water over the oceans is feasible, using available infrared observations (OLR and TOVS) and model analysis (ECMWF, NMC or similar quality). The estimates are sensitive to model quality and the estimating model must be updated with operational model changes. Coe developed a set of tropical plume and ITCZ composites from TOVS observations, and from NMC and ECMWF analyses which had been passed through a radiative transfer model to simulate TOVS radiances. The composites have been completed as well as many statistical diagnostics of individual TOVS channels. Analysis of the computations is commencing. Chung has initiated a study of the differences between TOVS observed vapor structure during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (1983) and non-ENSO (1984) years. Preliminary diagnosis demonstrates gross moisture changes between warm and cold sea surface temperature episodes.

Mcguirk, James P.↗

The emissions of broadband electrostatic noise in the near vicinity of the Shuttle Orbiter

Measurements of the Space Shuttle environment from the STS-3 and Spacelab 2 missions indicate the presence of oblique ion streams and broadband electrostatic noise. A two-dimensional theoretical model is applied to study a possible causal relationship between the ion streams and the broadband noise, especially in terms of the ion acoustic wave and ion-ion wave modes. This model predicts the generation of waves with frequencies ranging from the ion cyclotron frequency up to values greater than the ion plasma frequency, with the maximum growth rate occurring in the 10-kHz range. These results are consistent with the observational data from the STS-3 mission. The model also shows that these two wave modes can coexist only when the wave vectors of the two wave modes are nearly perpendicular. The parametric dependence of the wave instabilities on the plasma parameters and the inclination of the wave propagation vector is also studied.

Hwang, K. S.↗

GRO/EGRET data analysis software: An integrated system of custom and commercial software using standard interfaces

The Energetic Gamma Ray Telescope Experiment (EGRET) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory has been in orbit for more than a year and is being used to map the full sky for gamma rays in a wide energy range from 30 to 20,000 MeV. Already these measurements have resulted in a wide range of exciting new information on quasars, pulsars, galactic sources, and diffuse gamma ray emission. The central part of the analysis is done with sky maps that typically cover an 80 x 80 degree section of the sky for an exposure time of several days. Specific software developed for this program generates the counts, exposure, and intensity maps. The analysis is done on a network of UNIX based workstations and takes full advantage of a custom-built user interface called X-dialog. The maps that are generated are stored in the FITS format for a collection of energies. These, along with similar diffuse emission background maps generated from a model calculation, serve as input to a maximum likelihood program that produces maps of likelihood with optional contours that are used to evaluate regions for sources. Likelihood also evaluates the background corrected intensity at each location for each energy interval from which spectra can be generated. Being in a standard FITS format permits all of the maps to be easily accessed by the full complement of tools available in several commercial astronomical analysis systems. In the EGRET case, IDL is used to produce graphics plots in two and three dimensions and to quickly implement any special evaluation that might be desired. Other custom-built software, such as the spectral and pulsar analyses, take advantage of the XView toolkit for display and Postscript output for the color hard copy. This poster paper outlines the data flow and provides examples of the user interfaces and output products. It stresses the advantages that are derived from the integration of the specific instrument-unique software and powerful commercial tools for graphics and statistical evaluation. This approach has several proven advantages including flexibility, a minimum of development effort, ease of use, and portability.

Laubenthal, N. A.↗

Orbits Through Polytropes

We describe how orbital tunnels could be used to transport payloads through the Earth. If you use a brachistochrone for the tunnel, the body forces in the tunnel become overwhelmingly large for small angular distances traveled. Projectiles move along an orbital tunnel faster than they would along abrachistochrone connecting the same points but the body force components cancel. We describe how parabolic Keplerian orbits outside the object merge onto quasi-Keplerian orbits inside the object. We use models of the interior of the Earth with three values of the polytropic index (n) to calculate interior or bits that travel between surface points. The n¼3 results are also scaled to the Sun. Numerical integrations of the equations describing polytropes were used to generate the initial models. Numerical integration of the equations of motion are then used to calculate the angular distance you can travel along the surface and the traversal time as a function of the parabolic periaps is distance for each model. Trajectories through objects of low central condensation show a focusing effect that decreases as the central condensation increases. Analytic solutions for the trajectories in a homogeneous sphere are derived and compared to the numeric results. The results can be scaled to other planets, stars, or even globular clusters.

Gjerlov, Amalia↗

Motion Cueing Algorithm Modification for Improved Turbulence Simulation

Atmospheric turbulence cueing produced by flight simulator motion systems has been less than satisfactory because the turbulence profiles have been attenuated by the motion cueing algorithms. Cardullo and Ellor initially addressed this problem by directly porting the turbulence model output to the motion system. Reid and Robinson addressed the problem by employing a parallel aircraft model, which is only stimulated by the turbulence inputs and adding a filter specially designed to pass the higher turbulence frequencies. There have been advances in motion cueing algorithm development at the Man-Machine Systems Laboratory, at SUNY Binghamton. In particular, the system used to generate turbulence cues has been studied. The Reid approach, implemented by Telban and Cardullo, was employed to augment the optimal motion cueing algorithm installed at the NASA LaRC Simulation Laboratory, driving the Visual Motion Simulator. In this implementation, the output of the primary flight channel was added to the output of the turbulence channel and then sent through a non-linear cueing filter. The cueing filter is an adaptive filter; therefore, it is not desirable for the output of the turbulence channel to be augmented by this type of filter. The likelihood of the signal becoming divergent was also an issue in this design. After testing on-site it became apparent that the architecture of the turbulence algorithm was generating unacceptable cues. As mentioned above, this cueing algorithm comprised a filter that was designed to operate at low bandwidth. Therefore, the turbulence was also filtered, augmenting the cues generated by the model. If any filtering is to be done to the turbulence, it will utilize a filter with a much higher bandwidth, above the frequencies produced by the aircraft response to turbulence. The authors have developed an implementation wherein only the signal from the primary flight channel passes through the nonlinear cueing filter. This paper discusses three new algorithms. Testing shows that the new methods provide the pilot with a more realistic sensation of turbulence; the cues are not attenuated by algorithm. Results of offline testing show the credibility of the models. Offline test verification was based primarily on the evaluation of the power spectral density of the outputs and the time response.

Ercole, Anthony V.↗

Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-Tolerant Diagnosis

The Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-tolerant Diagnostics (HSG) is an algorithm being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial- intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. By incorporating prognostic capabilities along with advanced diagnostic capabilities, these developments hold promise to increase the safety and affordability of the affected engineering systems by making it possible to obtain timely and accurate information on the statuses of the systems and predicting impending failures well in advance. The HSG is a specific instance of a hypothetical- scenario generator that implements an innovative approach for performing diagnostic reasoning when data are missing. The special purpose served by the HSG is to (1) look for all possible ways in which the present state of the engineering system can be mapped with respect to a given model and (2) generate a prioritized set of future possible states and the scenarios of which they are parts.

James, Mark↗

Advanced Finite Element Modeling of Low Cycle Fatigue Crack Growth

This document (a viewgraph presentation) assumes a crack-like defect of a size which may be missed in inspection will exist in most critical location of any critical structure or component. Flaw existence assumption is usually, but not always, conservative based on past experiences in NASA and knowledge of manufacturing processes. Cyclic, environmental, and sustained loads used to generate stresses on models. Fracture Mechanics analysis used to predict crack growth and residual strength. Must show that defective structure will still provide four times required mission lifetime. Special exemptions cover redundant structures, low risk parts, etc. Assessments require specialized software tools, experienced analysts, and reliable material crack growth rate test database.

Gregg, Wayne↗

A signal model for GPS

As the development of GPS continues, there will be an increasing need for a software-centered signal model. This model must accurately generate the observed pseudorange that would typically be encountered. The observed pseudorange varies from the true geometric range because of range measurement errors, which stem from a variety of hardware and environmental factors. In this paper, these errors are classified as either deterministic or random, and, where appropriate, their models are summarized. Of particular interest is the model for Selective Availability, which was derived from actual GPS data. The procedure for determination of this model, known as system identification theory, is briefly outlined. The synthesis of these error sources into the final signal model is given, along with simulation results.

Braasch, Michael S.↗

Modeling Selective Availability of the NAVSTAR Global Positioning System

As the development of the NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS) continues, there will increasingly be the need for a software centered signal model. This model must accurately generate the observed pseudorange which would typically be encountered. The observed pseudorange varies from the true geometric (slant) range due to range measurement errors. Errors in range measurement stem from a variety of hardware and environment factors. These errors are classified as either deterministic or random and, where appropriate, their models are summarized. Of particular interest is the model for Selective Availability which is derived from actual GPS data. The procedure for the determination of this model, known as the System Identification Theory, is briefly outlined. The synthesis of these error sources into the final signal model is given along with simulation results.

Braasch, Michael↗

A 3D visualization system for molecular structures

The properties of molecules derive in part from their structures. Because of the importance of understanding molecular structures various methodologies, ranging from first principles to empirical technique, were developed for computing the structure of molecules. For large molecules such as polymer model compounds, the structural information is difficult to comprehend by examining tabulated data. Therefore, a molecular graphics display system, called MOLDS, was developed to help interpret the data. MOLDS is a menu-driven program developed to run on the LADC SNS computer systems. This program can read a data file generated by the modeling programs or data can be entered using the keyboard. MOLDS has the following capabilities: draws the 3-D representation of a molecule using stick, ball and ball, or space filled model from Cartesian coordinates, draws different perspective views of the molecule; rotates the molecule on the X, Y, Z axis or about some arbitrary line in space, zooms in on a small area of the molecule in order to obtain a better view of a specific region; and makes hard copy representation of molecules on a graphic printer. In addition, MOLDS can be easily updated and readily adapted to run on most computer systems.

Green, Terry J.↗

Interactive modeling using the PATRAN-G program

PATRAN-G is an interactive finite element generating and graphics display program. The program is currently executable on the VAX or PRIME computers and is compatible with 19 commercially available graphics terminals. The PATRAN program can be used in two modes: generation of a finite element model, or postprocessing of output data from a finite element analysis program. The finite element generating mode is divided into two phases. Phase I is the geometry construction. During this phase, the geometric boundaries of the model are defined and the material properties are input. Mirror imaging, translation and scaling of lines, surfaces, and volumes, and rotation of regions permit the geometry to be described efficiently. Points may be defined in alternate rectangular, cylindrical, or spherical coordinate systems. Also, PATRAN-G can calculate the intersection of lines or surfaces. This capability allows a user to easily model, for example, the intersection of a cylinder which cuts through a sphere at an angle. Once the geometry of the model has been described in terms of points, lines, surfaces, and volumes. Phase II is used to generate the computer finite element model.

Stalnaker, W. A.↗

An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model

Monthly mean global forecasts for January 1975 have been computed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model from four slightly different sets of initial conditions - a 'control' state and three random perturbations thereof - to simulate the effects of initial state uncertainty on forecast quality. Differences among the forecasts are examined in terms of energetics, synoptic patterns and forecast statistics. The 'noise level' of the model predictions is depicted on global maps of standard deviations of sea level pressures, 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures for the set of four forecasts. Initial small-scale random errors do not appear to result in any major degradation of the large-scale monthly mean forecast beyond that generated by the model itself, nor do they appear to represent the major source of large-scale forecast error.

Spar, J.↗