Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “extreme value”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Alloying effects on low-energy recoil events in concentrated solid-solution alloys

Alloying elements at low-concentrations into pure metals is usually adopted to improve their mechanical properties and irradiation performance. Recently developed single-phase concentrated solid-solution alloys (CSAs) comprised of two or more elements, all at high concentrations, have demonstrated good radiation resistance. CSAs are characterized by their extreme disordered states that arise from the random arrangement of different elements and accompanied random local lattice distortions. In this work, we investigate low-energy recoil events in Ni 0.5 X 0.5 (X = Fe and Co) CSAs and Ni 0.8 X 0.2 (X = Fe, Co, Cr, and Pd) CSAs using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations to understand the effects of different disorder on defect production in CSAs. The threshold displacement energies are determined along three high-symmetric directions by randomly choosing independent primary knock-on atoms in each direction. As expected, the threshold energies in Ni and its CSAs are anisotropic, with the highest values found in the [111] direction. The calculated threshold energies of Fe in NiFe are smaller than those in NiCo and Ni, especially along the [111] direction. An inspection of the atomic trajectories inside the collision cascade reveals that the effect of chemical disorder outweighs the site-to-site lattice distortions in determining the threshold energies. Especially, different interaction properties between elements due to their different electronic structures are responsible for the observed different threshold energies. Finally, the local environment dependence of threshold energies suggests that local elemental arrangement can be used to understand and predict threshold energies in disordered alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A non-linear solution to the S 8 tension – II. Analysis of DES Year 3 cosmic shear

ABSTRACT Weak galaxy lensing surveys have consistently reported low values of the S8 parameter compared to the Planck lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology. Amon & Efstathiou used KiDS-1000 cosmic shear measurements to propose that this tension can be reconciled if the matter fluctuation spectrum is suppressed more strongly on non-linear scales than assumed in state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations. In this paper, we investigate cosmic shear data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3. The non-linear suppression of the matter power spectrum required to resolve the S8 tension between DES and the Planck ΛCDM model is not as strong as inferred using KiDS data, but is still more extreme than predictions from recent numerical simulations. An alternative possibility is that non-standard dark matter contributes to the required suppression. We investigate the redshift and scale dependence of the suppression of the matter power spectrum. If our proposed explanation of the S8 tension is correct, the required suppression must extend into the mildly non-linear regime to wavenumbers $k\sim 0.2 \, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. In addition, all measures of S8 using linear scales should agree with the Planck ΛCDM cosmology, an expectation that will be testable to high precision in the near future.

Preston, Calvin (ORCID:0000000281136916)↗

The Interaction Between Dynamics and Chemistry of Ozone in the Set-Up Phase of the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex

Understanding stratospheric ozone loss to the point of accurately predicting ozone in the future requires correctly distinguishing chemical from transport-induced changes in ozone. For example, evaluating the impact of chlorine reduction in controlling stratospheric ozone loss requires estimating the amount of ozone lost in chemical reactions in the polar winter and spring. The Northern Hemisphere winter polar region is a particularly crucial and interesting area because it appears that the Northern vortex may currently be poised near the threshold of extreme ozone destruction such as that which now occurs annually in the Antarctic ozone "hole." In this presentation we explore the interaction of ozone transport and chemistry through the Northern late summer and fall seasons as the vortex circulation becomes established. This phase of the seasonal cycle determines the starting point for heterogeneous processes and chlorine-driven loss that take control in the winter vortex. Using a combination of profile data from POAM, HALOE, and in situ measurements, we show that relatively low ozone at high latitudes in the middle stratosphere is associated with vortex airmasses and that these ozone abundances evolve photochemically from characteristically higher values at the end of the summer. The zonal variance of ozone mixing ratio also increases greatly at this time consistent with increasing wave-driven transport. Comparison with a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model is used to generalize the findings from the limited set of observations and quantify the relative roles of transport and chemistry in determining the ozone mixing ratio distributions.

Kawa, S.R.↗

Optical constants of magnetron sputtered aluminum in the range 17–1300 eV with improved accuracy and ultrahigh resolution in the L absorption edge region

This work determines a new set of EUV/x-ray optical constants for aluminum (Al), one of the most important materials in science and technology. Absolute photoabsorption (transmittance) measurements in the 17–1300 eV spectral range were performed on freestanding Al films protected by carbon (C) layers, to prevent oxidation. The dispersive portion of the refractive index was obtained via the Kramers–Kronig transformation. Our data provide significant improvements in accuracy compared to previously tabulated values and reveal fine structure in the Al L 1 and L 2,3 regions, with photon energy step sizes as small as 0.02 eV. The implications of this work in the successful realization of EUV/x-ray instruments and in the validation of atomic and molecular physics models are also discussed.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Cool outflows in MaNGA: a systematic study and comparison to the warm phase

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the neutral gas phase of galactic winds via the Na i Dλλ5890, 5895Å feature within z ∼ 0.04 MaNGA galaxies and directly compares their incidence and strength to the ionized winds detected within the same parent sample. We find evidence for neutral outflows in 127 galaxies (∼5 per cent of the analysed line-emitting sample). ${\rm Na\, \small {\rm I}\ D}$ winds are preferentially seen in galaxies with dustier central regions and both wind phases are more often found in systems with elevated star formation rate (SFR) surface densities, especially when there has been a recent upturn in the star formation activity according to the $\rm SFR_{5 \, Myr}/SFR_{800 \, Myr}$ parameter. We find the ionized outflow kinematics to be in line with what we measure in the neutral phase. This demonstrates that, despite their small contributions to the total outflow mass budget, there is value to collecting empirical measurements of the ionized wind phase to provide information on bulk motion in the outflow. Depending on dust corrections applied to the ionized gas diagnostics, the neutral phase has ∼1.2−1.8 dex higher mass outflow rates ($\dot{M}_{\rm out}$), on average, compared to the ionized phase. We quantify scaling relations between $\dot{M}_{\rm out}$ and the strengths of the physical wind drivers (SFR, LAGN). Using a radial–azimuthal stacking method, and by considering inclination dependencies, we find results consistent with biconical outflows orthogonal to the disc plane. Our work complements other multiphase outflow studies in the literature that consider smaller samples, more extreme objects, or proceed via stacking of larger samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurement of 𝐷-line energies in sodiumlike Ir

We report measurements of the 𝐷 1 and 𝐷 2 transition energies in Na-like Ir (Ir 66+ ). The 𝐷 1 3⁢𝑠−3⁢𝑝 1/2 transition energy, measured in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) region at 169.977 ± 0.005 eV with a relative uncertainty of 29 ppm, represents one of the most precise 𝐷-line energy measurements to date for high atomic numbers 𝑍 ≥ 30. The 𝐷 2 3⁢𝑠−3⁢𝑝 3/2 transition energy, measured in the x-ray region, is 621.11 ± 0.06 eV. Therefore, there is a fine-structure separation of 451.13 ± 0.06 eV for the Na-like Ir 3⁢𝑝 levels. We present theoretical calculations of these energies using quantum electrodynamic-extended relativistic many-body perturbation theory and multiple-configuration Dirac-Hartree-Fock methods, and discuss the discrepancies between experimental and theoretical values. The prospect of determining the absolute nuclear charge radii of heavy elements, including rare isotopes, from these measurements is explored.

Atomic spectra↗

Evaluation of Adaptive Volt-VAR to Mitigate PV Impacts [Slides]

Distributed generation (DG) sources like photovoltaic (PV) systems with advanced inverters are able to perform grid-support functions, like autonomous Volt-VAR that attempts to mitigate voltage issues by injecting or consuming reactive power. However, the Volt-VAR function operates with VAR priority, meaning real power may be curtailed to provide additional reactive power support. Since some locations on the grid may be more prone to higher voltages than others, PV systems installed at those locations may be forced to curtail more power, adversely impacting the value of that PV system. Adaptive Volt-VAR (AVV) could be implemented as an alternative, whereby the Volt-VAR reference voltage changes over time, but this functionality has not been well-explored in the literature. In this work, the potential benefits and grid impacts of AVV were investigated using yearlong quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations. After testing a variety of allowable AVV settings, we found that even with aggressive settings AVV resulted in <0.01% real power curtailment and significantly reduced the reactive power support required from the PV inverter compared to conventional Volt-VAR but did not provide much mitigation for extreme voltage conditions. The reactive power support provided by AVV was injected to oppose large deviations in voltage (in either direction), indicating that it could be useful for other applications like reducing voltage flicker or minimizing interactions with other voltage regulating devices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Interference Fit Life Factors for Roller Bearings

The effect of hoop stresses in reducing cylindrical roller bearing fatigue life was determined for various classes of inner ring interference fit. Calculations were performed for up to seven interference fit classes for each of ten bearing sizes. Each fit was taken at tightest, average and loosest values within the fit class for RBEC-5 tolerance, thus requiring 486 separate analyses. The hoop stresses were superimposed on the Hertzian principal stresses created by the applied radial load to calculate roller bearing fatigue life. The method was developed through a series of equations to calculate the life reduction for cylindrical roller bearings based on interference fit. All calculated lives are for zero initial bearing internal clearance. Any reduction in bearing clearance due to interference fit was compensated by increasing the initial (unmounted) clearance. Results are presented as tables and charts of life factors for bearings with light, moderate and heavy loads and interference fits ranging from extremely light to extremely heavy and for bearing accuracy class RBEC 5 (ISO class 5). Interference fits on the inner bearing ring of a cylindrical roller bearing can significantly reduce bearing fatigue life. In general, life factors are smaller (lower life) for bearings running under light load where the unfactored life is highest. The various bearing series within a particular bore size had almost identical interference fit life factors for a particular fit. The tightest fit at the high end of the RBEC-5 tolerance band defined in ANSI/ABMA shaft fit tables produces a life factor of approximately 0.40 for an inner-race maximum Hertz stress of 1200 MPa (175 ksi) and a life factor of 0.60 for an inner-race maximum Hertz stress of 2200 MPa (320 ksi). Interference fits also impact the maximum Hertz stress-life relation.

Oswald, Fred B.↗

High Contrast Programmable Field Masks for JWST NIRSpec

Microshutter arrays are one of the novel technologies developed for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). It will allow Near Infrared Spectrometer (NIRSpec) to acquire spectra of hundreds of objects simultaneously therefore increasing its efficiency tremendously. We have developed these programmable arrays that are based on Micro-Electro Mechanical Structures (MEMS) technology. The arrays are 2D addressable masks that can operate in cryogenic environment of JWST. Since the primary JWST science requires acquisition of spectra of extremely faint objects, it is important to provide very high contrast of the open to closed shutters. This high contrast is necessary to eliminate any possible contamination and confusion in the acquired spectra by unwanted objects. We have developed and built a test system for the microshutter array functional and optical characterization. This system is capable of measuring the contrast of the microshutter array both in visible and infrared light of the NIRSpec wavelength range while the arrays are in their working cryogenic environment. We have measured contrast ratio of several microshutter arrays and demonstrated that they satisfy and in many cases far exceed the NIRSpec contrast requirement value of 2000.

Kutyrev, Alexander S.↗

Connections Between the Stratosphere and Surface Weather Associated with the Stratospheric Sudden Warming in Early 2018

A major Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) occurred on 11 February 2018. This was the first major SSW since January 2013 and the first split-vortex SSW since January 2009. We examine the SSW and the tropospheric connections using the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis (1980-2018) and the NASA GEOS Forward Processing (FP) system. A strong tropospheric wave forcing event in January 2018 displaced the stratospheric vortex off the pole. This displaced vortex persisted until the major SSW vortex split in February. At the time of the major SSW split vortex event the MERRA-2 100 hPa meridional heat flux, a measure of the tropospheric forcing on the stratosphere, attained record high values, associated with a strong tropospheric ridge over the US west coast and wave disturbances over the North Atlantic and Asia. The near-real-time GEOS-FP system forecasted the major SSW event with high skill out to 10 days. The analyses also show that after, the SSW, a steady circulation anomaly persisted over the European sector and the transient weather systems were concentrated over the North American continent, under the stronger of the two split vortices. The propagation of these synoptic-scale vortices around the deep, quasi-stationary vortex that extended from the surface into the stratosphere, is well illustrated in animations of extreme temperature changes near the surface over North America. A quantitative analysis of these synoptic waves and their propagation will examine their signatures in potential vorticity and other fields.

Pawson, S.↗

Large-Scale Groundwater Monitoring in Brazil Assisted With Satellite-Based Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Here, we develop and test an artificial intelligence (AI)-based approach to monitor major Brazilian aquifers. The approach combines Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and ground-based hydrogeological measurements from Brazil’s Integrated Groundwater Monitoring Network at hundreds of wells distributed in twelve aquifers across the country. We tested model ensembles based on three AI approaches: Extreme Gradient Boost, Light Gradient Boosting Model and CatBoost, followed by a Linear Regression (LR) step. The approach is further boosted with wavelet and seasonal decomposition processes applied to GRACE data. To determine the AI-based model’s sensitivity to data availability, we propose four experiments combining hydrogeological measurements from different aquifers. Groundwater storage estimates from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are used as benchmark. A sensitivity analysis shows that the LR-based model ensemble is the best suited and to reproduce groundwater storage change in all studied Brazilian aquifers. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms GLDAS in all experiments, with an RMSE value of 2.68cm for the experiment that covers all monitored wells in Brazil. GLDAS resulted in RMSE=6.76cm. Using our AI model outputs, we quantified the groundwater storage change of two major aquifers, Urucuia and Bauru-Caiuá, over the past two decades: -31km 3 and -6km 3 , respectively. Water loss is driven by a prolonged drought across most of the country and intensification of groundwater pumping for irrigation. This study demonstrates that combining satellite data and AI can be a cost-effective alternative to monitor poorly equipped aquifers at the continental scale, with possible global replicability.

GRACE↗

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An analysis of the spatio-temporal resolution of the immersed boundary method with direct forcing

The immersed boundary method (IBM) with direct forcing is very popular in the simulation of rigid particulate flows. In the IBM, an interaction force is introduced at the interface between fluid and particle in order to approximate the no-slip boundary condition. The interaction force is calculated through dividing the velocity difference (or error) between fluid and particle at the interface by the time step. Here, a dynamic equation for the velocity difference is derived. Additionally, analyses on the dynamic equation provide a few new findings: (i) The interaction force is the solution of a least-squares error problem, with the direct implication that the Lagrangian marker distribution has no effect on the large scale flow structure once the distribution of Lagrangian markers become saturated along the interface (i.e., each marker remains properly correlated with all its neighbors); (ii) The Lagrangian volume-weight is a relaxation factor to control how fast the velocity error decays to the ideal value of zero; (iii) The optimal choice of the Lagrangian volume-weight is the largest value permissible by a stability condition. A comprehensive convergence analysis with regard to the spatial and temporal resolution is presented for the velocity error and also for the shear-stress and surface pressure. In three simple canonical problems, it is analytically and numerically shown that the IBM results converge to the theoretical solutions obtained with precise imposition of no-slip and no-penetration boundary conditions. It is observed that it is not necessary to match the Lagrangian marker volume-weight to that of the local Eulerian cell volume and in fact this matching leads to lower than optimal computational efficiency. However, it is found that extremely high Eulerian grid resolution and small time step have to be used to obtain high precision simulation results. Especially, the time step should be inversely proportional to the particle Reynolds number for low Reynolds number flows. For high frequency oscillation problems, the grid size needs to be reduced by a factor of the square root of the frequency, and the time step to be reduced by a factor of the frequency. The theoretical findings here can be used to alleviate the technical difficulties in simulating non-spherical particles by not requiring the Lagrangian marker distribution to match the Eulerian grids and also in the implementation of IBM on non-uniform Eulerian grids. The present work also provides simple practical guidance on the choice of temporal and spatial resolution so as to control the simulation error a priori.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Layer-resolved ultrafast extreme ultraviolet measurement of hole transport in a Ni-TiO 2 -Si photoanode

Metal oxide semiconductor junctions are central to most electronic and optoelectronic devices, but ultrafast measurements of carrier transport have been limited to device-average measurements. Here, charge transport and recombination kinetics in each layer of a Ni-TiO 2 -Si junction is measured using the element specificity of broadband extreme ultraviolet (XUV) ultrafast pulses. After silicon photoexcitation, holes are inferred to transport from Si to Ni ballistically in ~100 fs, resulting in characteristic spectral shifts in the XUV edges. Meanwhile, the electrons remain on Si. After picoseconds, the transient hole population on Ni is observed to back-diffuse through the TiO 2 , shifting the Ti spectrum to a higher oxidation state, followed by electron-hole recombination at the Si-TiO 2 interface and in the Si bulk. Electrical properties, such as the hole diffusion constant in TiO 2 and the initial hole mobility in Si, are fit from these transient spectra and match well with values reported previously.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Confined turbulent swirling recirculating flow predictions

The capability and the accuracy of the STARPIC computer code in predicting confined turbulent swirling recirculating flows is presented. Inlet flow boundary conditions were demonstrated to be extremely important in simulating a flowfield via numerical calculations. The degree of swirl strength and expansion ratio have strong effects on the characteristics of swirling flow. In a nonswirling flow, a large corner recirculation zone exists in the flowfield with an expansion ratio greater than one. However, as the degree of inlet swirl increases, the size of this zone decreases and a central recirculation zone appears near the inlet. Generally, the size of the central zone increased with swirl strength and expansion ratio. Neither the standard k-epsilon turbulence mode nor its previous extensions show effective capability for predicting confined turbulent swirling recirculating flows. However, either reduced optimum values of three parameters in the mode or the empirical C sub mu formulation obtained via careful analysis of available turbulence measurements, can provide more acceptable accuracy in the prediction of these swirling flows.

Abujelala, M. T.↗

Cooperative Lander-Surface/Aerial Microflyer Missions for Mars Exploration

Concepts are being investigated for exploratory missions to Mars based on Bioinspired Engineering of Exploration Systems (BEES), which is a guiding principle of this effort to develop biomorphic explorers. The novelty lies in the use of a robust telecom architecture for mission data return, utilizing multiple local relays (including the lander itself as a local relay and the explorers in the dual role of a local relay) to enable ranges ~10 to 1,000 km and downlink of color imagery. As illustrated in Figure 1, multiple microflyers that can be both surface or aerially launched are envisioned in shepherding, metamorphic, and imaging roles. These microflyers imbibe key bio-inspired principles in their flight control, navigation, and visual search operations. Honey-bee inspired algorithms utilizing visual cues to perform autonomous navigation operations such as terrain following will be utilized. The instrument suite will consist of a panoramic imager and polarization imager specifically optimized to detect ice and water. For microflyers, particularly at small sizes, bio-inspired solutions appear to offer better alternate solutions than conventional engineered approaches. This investigation addresses a wide range of interrelated issues, including desired scientific data, sizes, rates, and communication ranges that can be accomplished in alternative mission scenarios. The mission illustrated in Figure 1 offers the most robust telecom architecture and the longest range for exploration with two landers being available as main local relays in addition to an ephemeral aerial probe local relay. The shepherding or metamorphic plane are in their dual role as local relays and image data collection/storage nodes. Appropriate placement of the landing site for the scout lander with respect to the main mission lander can allow coverage of extremely large ranges and enable exhaustive survey of the area of interest. In particular, this mission could help with the path planning and risk mitigation in the traverse of the long-distance surface explorer/rover. The basic requirements of design and operation of BEES to implement the scenarios are discussed. Terrestrial applications of such concepts include distributed aerial/surface measurements of meteorological events, i.e., storm watch, seismic monitoring, reconnaissance, biological chemical sensing, search and rescue, surveillance, autonomous security/ protection agents, and/or delivery and lateral distribution of agents (sensors, surface/subsurface crawlers, clean-up agents). Figure 2 illustrates an Earth demonstration that is in development, and its implementation will illustrate the value of these biomorphic mission concepts.

Thakoor, Sarita↗

Estimating When the Antarctic Ozone Hole Will Recover

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-21 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We estimate that the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of size decrease in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. Estimates of the ozone hole's recovery from models reveal important differences that will be discussed.

Newman, Paul A.↗

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and Lunar Liquid Oxygen Derived from FeO-Rich Pyroclastic Deposits

Studies conducted by NASA and its contractors (early 1980s early 1990s) indicated a substantial benefit from using lunar-derived propellants specifically lunar-derived LO2 (LLO2) or LUNOX in a lunar space transportation system (LTS). With a LTS using LO2/LH2 chemical rockets, approx. 6 kilograms (kg) of mass in low Earth orbit (LEO) is required to place 1 kg of payload on the lunar surface (LS). Of this 6 kg, approx. 70% (4.2 kg) is propellant and 6/7th of this mass (3.6 kg) is oxygen assuming an O/H MR 6:1. Since the cost of placing a kilogram of mass on the LS is approx. 6X the cost of delivering it to LEO, the ability to produce and utilize LUNOX or lunar-derived LO2 and hydrogen (LLH2) from lunar polar ice (LPI) deposits can provide significant mission leverage. Providing LUNOX for use in fuel cells, life support systems and LO2/LH2 chemical rockets used on lunar landing vehicles (LLVs), can allow high value cargo (people, manufacturing and scientific equipment, etc.) to be transported to LEO, then to the Moon instead of bulk LO2 propellant. Oxygen is abundant in the lunar regolith (approx. 43% by mass) and can be extracted using a variety of techniques, such as hydrogen reduction of ilmenite (FeOTiO2) or FeO-rich volcanic glass (orange soil) discovered during the Apollo 17 mission to Taurus-Littrow. While considerable interest has been expressed about mining and processing LPI for rocket propellant, ground truth must first be established to quantify the physical state of the ice (e.g., its vertical thickness and areal extent, levels of soil contamination, etc.) and the deep, extremely cold (approx. 26-100 K) permanently shadowed craters where the ice resides.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗