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At least 1,477 records · Page 82
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Groundwater recharge estimation in arid hardrock-alluvium aquifers using combined water-table fluctuation and groundwater balance approaches

This article proposes an approach to estimate groundwater recharge using an optimization-based water-table fluctuation method combined with a groundwater balance model in an arid hardrock-alluvium region, located at the Oman–United Arab Emirates border. Here, we introduce an “effective hardrock thickness” term to identify the percentage of the considered hardrock thickness in which effective groundwater flow takes place. The proposed method is based upon a Thiessen polygon zoning approach. The method includes subpolygons to represent specific geologic units and to enhance the confidence of the estimated groundwater recharge. Two linear and 1 nonlinear submodels were developed to evaluate the model components for the calibration (October 1996 to September 2008) and validation (October 2008 to September 2013) periods. Long-term annual groundwater recharge from rainfall and return flow over the model domain are estimated as 24.62 and 5.71 Mm 3 , respectively, while the effective groundwater flow circulation is found to occur in the upper 7% of the known hardrock thickness (42 m), confirming conclusions of previous field studies. Considering a total difference in groundwater levels between eastern and western points of the study area of the order of 220 m and a 12-year monthly calibration period, a weighted root mean squared error in predicted groundwater elevation of 2.75 m is considered quite reasonable for the study area characterized by remarkable geological and hydrogeological diversity. The proposed approach provides an efficient and robust method to estimate groundwater recharge in regions with a complex geological setting in which interaction between fractured and porous media cannot be easily assessed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating dermal contact soil exposure for amphibians

Abstract Chemical exposure estimation through the dermal route is an underemphasized area of ecological risk assessment for terrestrial animals. Currently, there are efforts to create exposure models to estimate doses from this pathway for use in ecological risk assessment. One significant limitation has been insufficient published data to characterize exposure and to support the selection and parameterization of appropriate models, particularly for amphibians in terrestrial habitats. Recent publications measuring pesticide doses to terrestrial‐phase amphibians have begun to rectify this situation. We collated and summarized available measurements of terrestrial amphibian dermal exposure to pesticides from 11 studies in which researchers measured tissue concentrations associated with known pesticide experimental application rates. This data set included tissue concentrations in 11 amphibian species and 14 different pesticides. We then compared the results of two screening exposure models that differed based on surface area scaling approaches as a function of body weight (one based on birds as surrogates for amphibians and another amphibian‐specific) to the measured tissue residue concentrations. We define a false‐negative rate for each screening model as the proportion of amphibians for which the predicted concentration is less than the observed concentration (i.e., underestimate), contrary to the intent of screening models, which are intended to have a bias for higher exposure concentrations. The screening model that uses birds as surrogates did not have any instances where estimated expected avian doses were less than measured amphibian body burdens. When using the amphibian‐specific exposure model that corrected for differences between avian and amphibian surface area, measured concentrations were greater than model estimates for 11.3% of the 1158 comparisons. The database of measured pesticide concentrations in terrestrial amphibians is provided for use in calculating bioconcentration factors and for future amphibian dermal exposure model development. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:9–16. © 2022 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2013

Estimating the Radiative Forcing of Carbonaceous Aerosols over California based on Satellite and Ground Observations

Carbonaceous aerosols have the potential to impact climate both through directly absorbing incoming solar radiation, and by indirectly affecting the cloud layer. To quantify this impact recent modeling studies have made great efforts to simulate both the spatial and temporal distribution of carbonaceous aerosols and their associated radiative forcing. This study makes the first observationally constrained assessment of the direct radiative forcing of carbonaceous aerosols at a regional scale over California. By exploiting multiple observations (including ground sites and satellites), we constructed the distribution of aerosol optical depths and aerosol absorption optical depths over California for a ten-year period (2000-2010). The total solar absorption was then partitioned into contributions from elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC) and dust aerosols using a newly developed scheme. Aerosol absorption optical depth due to carbonaceous aerosols (EC and OC) at 440 nm is 50%-200% larger than natural dust, with EC contributing the bulk (70%-90%). Observationally constrained EC absorption agrees reasonably well with estimates from regional transport models, but the model underestimates the OC AAOD by at least 50%. We estimate that the TOA warming from carbonaceous aerosols is 0.7 W/m2 and the TOA forcing due to OC is close to zero. The atmospheric heating of carbonaceous aerosols is 2.2-2.9 W/m2, of which EC contributed about 80-90%. The atmospheric heating due to OC is estimated to be 0.1 to 0.4 W/m2, larger than model simulations. The surface brightening due to EC reduction over the last two decades is estimated to be 1.5-3.5 W/m2.

aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty in Pareto estimates of global lake area

Abstract Size is a critical factor determining the rate and occurrence of specific lake processes such as carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions and emerging evidence suggests that small lakes in particular have particularly large CO 2 flux rates. Because we do not have a complete census of all lakes, upscaling estimates of such processes to small lakes at broad spatial scales requires the use of lake size‐abundance distributions rather than empirical measurements of area. Existing lake census efforts are incomplete such that as lakes become smaller, they are more likely to be omitted either because they are too small to be resolved from remote sensing products or because of limited ground surveying effort (i.e., “censoring” of small lakes relative to large lakes). The present study explores one potential shortcoming of prior approaches estimating global lake area using lake size‐abundance distributions. Namely, that these prior approaches rely on frequentist curve fitting techniques combined with an ad‐hoc cutoff determination strategy (visual inspection to determine a likely censoring point). This yields an over‐exact lake area estimate that is typically reported with no uncertainty bounds. I show how these shortcomings can be addressed with a Bayesian model that produces larger estimates of lake area uncertainty relative to the typical approach. When used as part of a sensitivity analysis, such an approach has the potential to enable more robust intercomparisons among studies of aquatic processes upscaling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

State-Space Model to Estimate Salmon Escapement Using Multiple Data Sources

Abstract Accurate estimates of salmonids passing Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River, by species and origin, are a critical input to assessing the status and trends of various populations as well as successful management of fisheries in the Snake River basin. Here, we describe a state-space model that estimates such escapement past a dam by using window counts, PIT tag observations, and data from an adult fish trap, accounting for issues such as nighttime passage, fallback and reascension, potential observation error at the window, and uncertainty in the adult trap rate. We tested the approach using a simulation framework that mimicked several levels of observation error, differences between nighttime passage and reascension rates, and the possibility of the adult trap being closed for some period of time. Our results demonstrate that the model produced unbiased estimates across all tested scenarios. We also applied this model to empirical data from Lower Granite Dam to produce estimates of wild, clipped hatchery, and unclipped hatchery spring/summer-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss from spawn years 2010–2019.

See, Kevin E. (ORCID:0000000297626442)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of full-field dynamic strains from digital video measurements of output-only beam structures by video motion processing and modal superposition

Strain is an necessary quantity to characterize local structural behaviors and directly correlates with structural damage initiation and development that is within local regions. Strain measurement at high spatial resolution (density) locations is thus required to characterize local structural behaviors and detect potential local damage. Traditional contact-type strain gauges are mostly discrete point-wise sensors that can only be placed in a limited number of positions. Distributed optical fiber sensing techniques can measure strains at spatially dense measurement points, but their instrumentation is a time- and labor-intensive process associated with the issue of the fragility of fibers. Noncontact optical measurement techniques, such as a family of interferometry techniques using laser beams (e.g., laser Doppler vibrometers), can provide vibration measurement at high density spatial points without the need to install sensors on the structure. Yet, these measurement devices are active sensing methods that are relatively expensive and vulnerable to ambient motion. Photogrammetry is an alternative noncontact optical measurement method using (passive) white-light imaging of digital video cameras that are relatively low-cost, agile, and provides simultaneous measurements at high spatial density locations where every pixel becomes a measurement point. Among others, digital image correlation can achieve full-field deformation measurements and subsequently estimate the full-field strains. However, it is computationally extensive. This research develops a new efficient approach to estimate the full-field (as many measurement points as the pixel number of the video frame on the structure) dynamic strains at high-spatial (pixel)-resolution/density location points from the digital video measurement of output-only vibrating structures. The developed approach is based on phase-based video motion estimation and modal superposition of structural dynamic response. Moreover, the method is augmented by a high-fidelity finite element model, which is updated with the full-field experimental modal parameters “blindly” identified from the video measurement of the output-only structure. Laboratory experiments are conducted to validate the method on a bench-scale cantilever beam structure. Results demonstrate that the full-field dynamic strain estimated by the developed approach from the video measurement of the output-only vibrating beam match very well those directly measured by the strain gauges (at discrete measurement points). Some factors associated with the effectiveness of the method are experimentally studied and discussed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parameter estimation from spontaneous imbibition into volcanic tuff

Two-phase fluid flow properties underlie quantitative prediction of water and gas movement, but constraining these properties typically requires multiple time-consuming laboratory methods. The estimation of two-phase flow properties (van Genuchten parameters, porosity, and intrinsic permeability) is illustrated in cores of vitric nonwelded volcanic tuff using Bayesian parameter estimation that fits numerical models to observations from spontaneous imbibition experiments. The uniqueness and correlation of the estimated parameters is explored using different modeling assumptions and subsets of the observed data. The resulting estimation process is sensitive to both moisture retention and relative permeability functions, thereby offering a comprehensive method for constraining both functions. The data collected during this relatively simple laboratory experiment, used in conjunction with a numerical model and a global optimizer, result in a viable approach for augmenting more traditional capillary pressure data obtained from hanging water column, membrane plate extractor, or mercury intrusion methods. This method may be useful when imbibition rather than drainage parameters are sought, when larger samples (e.g., including heterogeneity or fractures) need to be tested that cannot be accommodated in more traditional methods, or when in educational laboratory settings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Sharp Observability Estimates for a System of Two Coupled Nonconservative Hyperbolic Equations

We consider a system of two coupled nonconservative wave equations. For this system, we prove several observability estimates. Those observability estimates are sharp in the sense that they lead by duality to the controllability (exact or approximate) of the coupled system with a single control acting through one of the equations only while keeping the same controllability time as for a single equation. Existing results in the literature either require two controls, or in the case of a single control, they have a controllability time that blows up as the coupling parameter goes to zero. Our proofs rely on: (i) Carleman estimates, (ii) energy estimates and (iii) localizing arguments. The results obtained complement and improve, in some sense, earlier results while at the same time providing new uniqueness results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

R2 relaxometry based MR imaging for estimation of liver iron content: A comparison between two methods

Purpose: To compare the reproducibility and accuracy of R2-relaxometry MRI for estimation of liver iron concentration (LIC) between in-house analysis and FDA-approved commercially available third party results. Methods: All MR studies were performed on a 1.5T scanner. Multi-echo spin-echo scans with a fixed TR and increasing TE values of 6 ms, 9 ms, 12 ms, 15 ms, and 18 ms (spaced at 3 ms intervals) were used. Post-processing of the images to calculate mean relaxivity, R2, included drawing of regions of interest to include the whole liver on mid-slice. The relationship between liver R2 values and estimated LIC calculated with in-house analysis and values reported by an external company (FerriScan{sup ®}, Resonance Health, Australia) were assessed with correlation coefficients and Bland–Altman difference plots. Continuous variables are presented as mean ± standard deviation. Significance was set at p value < 0.05. Results: 474 studies from 175 patients were included in the study (mean age 10.4 ± 4.2 years (range 1–18 years); 254 studies from girls, 220 studies from boys). LIC ranged from 0.6 to 43 mg/g dry tissue, covering a broad range from normal levels to extremely high iron levels. Linearity between proprietary and in-house methods was excellent across the observed range for R2 (31.5 to 334.8 s{sup −1}); showing a correlation coefficient of r = 0.87, p < 0.001. Bland–Altman R2 difference plot between the two methods shows a mean bias of + 21.5 s{sup −1} (range − 47.0 to + 90.0 s{sup −1} between two standard deviations). LIC reported by FerriScan{sup ®} compared with LIC estimated in-house with R2 as reported by FerriScan{sup ®} agreed strongly, (r = 1.0, p < 0.001). Conclusion: R2 relaxometry MR imaging for liver iron concentration estimation is reproducible between proprietary FDA-approved commercial software and in-house analysis methods.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Estimation of groundwater discharge and associated chemical fluxes into Poyang Lake, China: approaches using stable isotopes (δD and δ{sup 18}O) and radon

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and is well known for its ecological and economic importance. Understanding the contribution of groundwater to Poyang Lake is important for the lake’s protection and management. In this study, stable isotopes (δD and δ{sup 18}O), {sup 222}Rn measurements, and corresponding models ({sup 222}Rn and {sup 18}O mass balance models) were employed to evaluate the groundwater discharge and associated chemical inputs to Poyang Lake. The results showed that the distribution of δ{sup 18}O in the lake water reflects the groundwater discharge into the lake. The groundwater discharge estimated using the {sup 222}Rn mass balance model was in reasonable agreement with the groundwater discharge derived from the {sup 18}O mass balance model. The {sup 222}Rn mass balance model showed that the groundwater discharge rate was 24.18 ± 6.85 mm/d with a groundwater discharge flux of (2.24 ± 0.63) × 10{sup 7} m{sup 3}/d, which accounts for 6.52–11.14% of river-water input in the Poyang Lake area. The groundwater discharge flux estimated using the {sup 18}O mass balance model was 3.17 × 10{sup 7} m{sup 3}/d, and the average groundwater discharge rate was 26.62 mm/d. The estimated groundwater discharge was used to estimate the associated chemical fluxes. It was found that groundwater-derived heavy metals such as iron and manganese are potential threats to the lake ecological system because of their large inputs from groundwater discharge.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Intensity and daily pattern of passenger vehicle use by region and class in China: estimation and implications for energy use and electrification

Given the explosive growth of the passenger vehicle market and energy demands in China, research on vehicle-use intensity and driver-travel patterns is critical for better assessing travel demand and its implications for alternative fuel vehicles, energy security, and environmental policies. This study attempts to estimate annual vehicle kilometers traveled (AVKT) per privately-owned passenger vehicle and their daily distance patterns by vehicle class and geographic region. The data sample from a survey consists of 169,292 privately owned passenger vehicles, made by 177 car manufacturers during 2003–2018, running in 82 cities from 27 provincial regions. The log-transformed average AVKT is estimated to be 12,377 km with 95% probability ranging from 5490 to 28,579 km. The investigation reveals that vehicles from South China have the highest AVKT at 13,320 km. Generally, vehicles in small cities have higher AVKT than in big cities, except AVKT of tier 1 cities being higher. Another trend is that more expensive or larger vehicles tend to be driven more. A model is fitted for estimating AVKT based on region, city type, automaker, price range, and certain vehicle features including class and age. Data of daily commuting distances in recent years are also analyzed. The average daily commuting distances typically range from 21 to 28 km. Using the validated Gamma distribution method, daily distance distributions are specified for different regions. It is found that 99% of the daily driving distance is no more than 88.0–112.0 km, depending on region. Utility factors of plug-in electric vehicles are also estimated to be much higher than those based on driving data in the USA. Finally, these findings suggest global mitigations strategies on vehicle fuel use, electrification, and greenhouse gases should consider vehicle-use intensity at the regional level.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

airport↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A state estimation approach based on stochastic expansions

This paper presents a new approach for state estimation problems. It is based on the representation of random variables using stochastic functions. Its main idea is to expand the state variables in terms of the noise variables of the system, and then estimate the unnoisy value of the state variables by taking the mean value of the stochastic expansion. Moreover, it was shown that in some situations, the proposed approach may be adapted to the determination of the probability distribution of the state noise. For the determination of the coefficients of the expansions, we present three approaches: moment matching (MM), collocation (COL) and variational (VAR). In the numerical analysis section, three examples are analyzed including a discrete linear system, the Influenza in a boarding school and the state estimation problem in the Hodgkin–Huxley’s model. In all these examples, the proposed approach was able to estimate the values of the state variables with precision, i.e., with very low RMS values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using yttrium as an indicator to estimate total rare earth element concentration: a case study of anthracite-associated clays from northeastern Pennsylvania

Abstract This study demonstrated using yttrium (Y) as an indicator to estimate the total rare earth element and Y contents (REY) in coal-associated samples and to facilitate selection of samples with high REY assays in a fast and inexpensive manner. More than 10 anthracite-associated samples were collected from each of three Pennsylvanian sites (sites B, J and C) based on Thorium gamma ray logging suggesting high REY content. Several samples from each site were analyzed by ICP-MS to determine the rare earth distribution patterns and to establish the site-specific linear equations of Y and REY. The Y contents of the remaining samples were measured by a portable X-ray fluorescence analyzer, and the REY values were estimated based on the site-specific linear equation developed earlier. R-squared values above 0.70 were obtained for all the estimation equations from all three sites on both a whole sample basis and an ash basis. Previously, ash content has been widely used as an indicator of high REY content. This may not be applicable for a specific site. Site B in this study is an example where ash contents could not be statistically correlated with REY, so using Y for estimation is more applicable. The demonstrated sample screening process is suitable for samples from sites that share more similar distribution patterns (either MREY or LREY or HREY) as well as for samples from sites that share multiple distribution patterns (LREY/MREY/HREY) depending on the desirable accuracy. The demonstrated process lowers the analytical cost from $70 to 80 dollars per sample to $10–15 per sample while significantly reducing the processing time and acid consumption for ICP digestion. This is particularly true when a relatively large sample size is involved, for example, 100 samples from one site analyzed by ICP-MS/OES.

Yang, Xiaojing↗
DOE OSTI2019

Efficiency of Uncertainty Propagation Methods for Estimating Output Moments

Uncertainty propagation methods are used to estimate the distribution of model outputs resulting from a set of uncertain model outputs. There are a number of uncertainty propagation methods available in literature. This paper compares six non-intrusive uncertainty propagation methods, Latin Hypercube Sampling, Full Factorial Integration, Univariate Dimension Reduction, Halton series, Sobol series, and Polynomial Chaos Expansion, in terms of their efficiency for estimating the first four moments of the output distribution using computational experiments. Here, the results suggest employing FFNI if there are few uncertain inputs, up to three. Uncertainty propagation methods that utilize Halton and Sobol series are found to be robust for estimating output moments as the number of uncertain inputs increases. In general, higher order polynomial chaos expansion approximations (3rd-5th order) obtained accurate estimates of model outputs with fewer model evaluations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Quantum state tomography and fidelity estimation via Phaselift

Experiments of multi-photon entanglement have been performed by several groups. Obviously, an increase on the photon number for fidelity estimation and quantum state tomography causes a dramatic increase in the elements of the positive operator valued measures (POVMs), which results in a great consumption of time in measurements. In practice, we wish to obtain a good estimation of fidelity and quantum states through as few measurements as possible for multi-photon entanglement. Phaselift provides such a chance to estimate fidelity for entangling states based on less data. In this paper, we would like to show how the Phaselift works for six qubits in comparison to the data given by Pan’s group, i.e., we use a fraction of the data as input to estimate the rest of the data through the obtained density matrix, and thus goes beyond the simple fidelity analysis. The fidelity bound is also provided for general Schrödinger Cat state. Based on the fidelity bound, we propose an optimal measurement approach which could both reduce the copies and keep the fidelity bound gap small. The results demonstrate that the Phaselift can help decrease the measured elements of POVMs for six qubits. Our conclusion is based on the prior knowledge that a pure state is the target state prepared by experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗