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Efficient learning of power grid voltage control strategies via model-based deep reinforcement learning

Here this article proposes a model-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method to design emergency control strategies for short-term voltage stability problems in power systems. Recent advances show promising results for model-free DRL-based methods in power systems control problems. But in power systems applications, these model-free methods have certain issues related to training time (clock time) and sample efficiency; both are critical for making state-of-the-art DRL algorithms practically applicable. DRL-agent learns an optimal policy via a trial-and-error method while interacting with the real-world environment. It is also desirable to minimize the direct interaction of the DRL agent with the real-world power grid due to its safety-critical nature. Additionally, the state-of-the-art DRL-based policies are mostly trained using a physics-based grid simulator where dynamic simulation is computationally intensive, lowering the training efficiency. We propose a novel model-based DRL framework where a deep neural network (DNN)-based dynamic surrogate model (SM), instead of a real-world power grid or physics-based simulation, is utilized within the policy learning framework, making the process faster and more sample efficient. However, having stable training in model-based DRL is challenging because of the complex system dynamics of large-scale power systems. We addressed these issues by incorporating imitation learning to have a warm start in policy learning, reward-shaping, and multi-step loss in surrogate model training. Finally, we achieved 97.5% reduction in samples and 87.7% reduction in training time for an application to the IEEE 300-bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

25-Pin metallic fuel performance benchmark case based on the EBR-II X430 experiments series

A metallic fuel benchmark case was developed for the fuel performance code BISON based on 25 uranium-zirconium and uranium-plutonium-zirconium pins of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II X430 experiment series. Results of the benchmarks were compared with measurements and calculations made at the time of the experiment as well as subsequent measurements reported in 2019. The comparisons were used to quantify the accuracy of the BISON predictions and to identify patterns in the BISON differences.BISON predicted burnup, plenum pressure, and fission gas release fractions accurately. BISON temperature predictions were somewhat cooler than the temperatures determined at the time of the experiment but appeared to be reasonably accurate considering uncertainties in the legacy temperature calculations, uncertainties in the legacy linear heat rate calculations, and the high sensitivities of the BISON-predicted temperatures to BISON inputs. Fuel axial elongation predictions had errors correlated to fuel composition; BISON tended to underpredict the elongation of binary fuels and overpredict the elongation of ternary fuels. BISON cladding radial dilation predictions were also significantly lower than legacy PIE measurements.Recommendations were made to improve the BISON fuel gaseous swelling model to account for fuel composition, to add additional capabilities to the coolant channel temperature model to ease benchmark development, and to continue developing benchmark cases based on a wide range of experiments in several reactors. Once a wide array of benchmarks is developed, an attempt can be made to enhance or calibrate BISON models to improve the cladding dilation predictions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Super-resolution surface slope metrology of x-ray mirrors

We present experimental, analytical, and numerical methods developed for reconstruction (deconvolution) of one-dimensional (1D) surface slope profiles over the spatial frequency range where the raw data are significantly perturbed due to the limited resolution of the measurement instrument. We characterize the spatial resolution properties of a profiler with the instrument's transfer function (ITF). To precisely measure the ITF, we apply a recently developed method utilizing test surfaces with 1D linear chirped height profiles of constant slope amplitude. Based on the results of the ITF calibration, we determine parameters of an analytical model for the ITF that is used in the original reconstruction software. Here, we treat surface slope metrology data obtained with the Optical Surface Measuring System (OSMS), using as a sensor an electronic autocollimator (AC) ELCOMAT-3000. The spatial resolution of the OSMS is limited by the size of the AC light-beam-collimating aperture. For the purposes of this investigation, the OSMS is equipped with a circular aperture with a diameter of 2.5 mm. This is a typical arrangement of most AC-based slope profilers developed for surface slope metrology of state-of-the-art x-ray mirrors. Using the example of surface slope metrology of two state-of-the-art elliptically shaped x-ray focusing mirrors, we demonstrate that the developed data reconstruction procedure allows us to significantly improve the accuracy of surface slope metrology with the OSMS over the spatial wavelength range from ~1.6 mm to 7 mm. Thus, the amplitude of the quasi-periodic error characteristic of the deterministic polishing process used appears to be higher by a factor of~2 than is apparent from the rough metrology data. Underestimation of the surface slope errors in this spatial wavelength range can lead to serious errors in the expected performance of x-ray mirrors in synchrotron beamlines, especially at modern light sources utilizing coherent x rays, where the perturbations can lead to increased speckle-like intensity variation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Modernization of the Radiation Measurements Laboratory at the Advanced Test Reactor Complex

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is a unique, water-cooled, high-flux test reactor capable of performing tests prototypical of PWR operating conditions. The Radiation Measurements Laboratory (RML) was founded in the 1960s to support reactor operations and to conduct independent scientific research. For nearly six decades RML has performed four primary functions: monitoring of radioactivity by gamma-ray spectroscopy of routine reactor samples, fluence rate determinations for irradiation cycles, fission-rate measurements for the ATR-Critical (ATR-C) Facility, and independent research and development of radiation detection systems and applications. Through the decades, RML has seen technological advancements that have been integrated into each of the critical functions of the laboratory. However, many of the measurement and analysis systems employed to this day can be improved by modernization. Recent progress at RML is improving reliability and accuracy of the radiation measurements performed in support of nuclear energy research for the U.S.A. Department of Energy. The control and data collection systems supporting ATR-C have been upgraded. New High-Purity Germanium (HPGe) spectrometers have been procured with liquid nitrogen recycling capabilities to improve up-time and reduce measurement uncertainties. Fluence-rate measurement techniques are also being improved to ensure accuracy, avoid systemic errors, and identify biases. In a parallel effort, new scientific research avenues are being explored which will provide an opportunity to further enhance the utilization of ATR and ensure the sustainability of the RML as nuclear research continues to evolve. The RML is improving the effectiveness of irradiation services provided by ATR while ensuring a sustainable future for nuclear energy research.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Rapid monitoring of fermentations: a feasibility study on biological 2,3-butanediol production

2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is an economically important platform chemical that can be produced by the fermentation of sugars using an engineered strain of Zymomonas mobilis . These fermentations require continuous monitoring and modification of fermentation conditions to maximize 2,3-BDO yields and minimize the production of the undesired coproducts glycerol and acetoin. Because of the time required for sampling and off-line chromatographic measurement of fermentation samples, the ability of fermentation scientists to modify fermentation conditions in a timely manner is limited. The goal of this study was to test if near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) along with multivariate statistics could reduce the time needed for this analysis and enable real-time monitoring and control of the fermentation. In this work we developed partial least squares (PLS) calibration models to predict the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol in fermentations via NIRS using two different spectrometers and two different spectroscopy modalities. We first evaluated the feasibility of rapid NIRS monitoring through experiments where we measured the signals from each analyte of interest and built NIRS-based PLS models using spectra from synthetic samples containing uncorrelated concentrations of these analytes. All analytes showed unique spectral signatures, and this initial modeling showed that all analytes could be detected simultaneously. We then began work with samples from laboratory fermentation experiments and tested the feasibility of regression model development across two spectral collection modalities (at-line and on-line) and two instruments: a laboratory-grade instrument and a low-cost instrument with a more limited spectral range. All modalities showed promise in the ability to monitor Z. mobilis fermentations of glucose and xylose to 2,3-BDO. The low-cost instrument displayed a lower signal-to-noise ratio than the laboratory-grade instrument, which led to comparatively lower performance overall, but still provided sufficient accuracy to monitor fermentation trends. While the ease of use of on-line monitoring systems was favored as compared to at-line systems due to the lack of sampling required and potential for automated process control, we observed some decrease in performance due to the additional complexity of the sample matrix. We have demonstrated that NIRS combined with multivariate analysis can be used for at-line and on-line monitoring of the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol during Z. mobilis fermentations. The decrease in signal-to-noise ratio when using a low-cost spectrometer led to greater prediction error than the laboratory-grade spectrometer for at-line monitoring. The on-line monitoring modality showed great promise for real time process control via NIRS.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Too big, too small, or just right? A benchmark assessment of density functional theory for predicting the spatial extent of the electron density of small chemical systems

Multipole moments are the first-order responses of the energy to spatial derivatives of the electric field strength. The quality of density functional theory prediction of molecular multipole moments thus characterizes errors in modeling the electron density itself, as well as the performance in describing molecules interacting with external electric fields. However, only the lowest non-zero moment is translationally invariant, making the higher-order moments origin-dependent. Therefore, instead of using the 3 × 3 quadrupole moment matrix, we utilize the translationally invariant 3 × 3 matrix of second cumulants (or spatial variances) of the electron density as the quantity of interest (denoted by K). The principal components of K are the square of the spatial extent of the electron density along each axis. A benchmark dataset of the principal components of K for 100 small molecules at the coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples at the complete basis set limit is developed, resulting in 213 independent K components. The performance of 47 popular and recent density functionals is assessed against this Var213 dataset. Several functionals, especially double hybrids, and also SCAN and SCAN0 predict reliable second cumulants, although some modern, empirically parameterized functionals yield more disappointing performance. The H, Li, and Be atoms, in particular, are challenging for nearly all methods, indicating that future functional development could benefit from the inclusion of their density information in training or testing protocols.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Long-Term field testing of the accuracy and HVAC energy savings potential of occupancy presence sensors in A Single-Family home

The energy-saving potential of occupancy-centric smart thermostats has been extensively explored in simulations but lacked field testing for energy savings quantification and sensor performance assessment in real buildings. This paper presents a long-term field study conducted in a single-family home in Texas, U.S. to evaluate the performance of occupancy-centric controls (OCC) of HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning) system in terms of energy savings, sensor accuracy, and impact on electric peak demand. The test site was equipped with a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) smart thermostat and multiple occupancy presence sensors for OCC implementation. Additionally, a sub-metering system was installed to monitor electricity consumption of various end-use equipment, including the HVAC system. A supplementary device was installed to track the ground-truth occupancy for the accuracy evaluation of the occupancy presence sensor. Scenarios of baseline and OCC controls were alternated weekly over the 20-month testing period. The results indicated an effective OCC execution, as evidenced by indoor temperature profiles. During the 2023 cooling season, OCC achieved total energy savings of 1,958 kWh, corresponding to a 17.6% energy savings ratio. Under certain conditions, daily HVAC energy savings reached as high as 17 kWh, with a savings ratio of 35%. Sensor performance showed an overall accuracy of 83.8%, a False Positive Rate (FPR) of 12.8%, and a False Negative Rate (FNR) of 47.4%. A key limitation was the sensor’s inability to detect stationary occupants during sleep, leading to a midnight FNR of nearly 100% and significantly compromising thermal comfort. Additionally, the implementation of OCC resulted in extended periods of high electricity demand on summer afternoons, affecting occupant’s thermal comfort and posing potential challenges to community-level grid operations if OCC were widely adopted. Furthermore, this study addresses a critical research gap by empirically investigating energy-saving potential and occupancy sensor performance in residential buildings. Through a comprehensive field-testing study, the research examines the interrelationship between sensor accuracy, energy savings, and thermal comfort, an area that has received limited attention in the current literature.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Pressure-Driven Fiber-Optic Sensor for Online Corrosion Monitoring

For many industrial applications, corrosion is a life-limiting phenomenon and therefore requires careful consideration and rigorous experimental testing before structural materials can be reliably deployed, particularly in harsh chemical environments. The traditional approach to measuring corrosion requires exposing many samples to the intended environment and then extracting them individually at discrete intervals for postexposure characterization. This approach does not provide a high degree of temporal resolution, nor does it provide any real-time information regarding dynamic changes in corrosion rates. Additionally, developing an online corrosion monitor capable of surviving harsh chemical environments could provide valuable information regarding the structural health of components and changing process conditions that could accelerate corrosion. To this end, a corrosion sensor was developed based on a pressure-driven Fabry-Pérot cavity (FPC). This sensor uses a pressure control system to internally pressurize the FPC formed between the sensor’s housing and a metal-embedded singlemode optical fiber. Simultaneous measurement of the change in FPC length using low-coherence interferometry and the applied pressure enables the calculation of the relative changes in the sensor’s diaphragm thickness due to corrosion on its outer surface. Measurements were made in situ while actively corroding the sensor and were validated against surveillance specimens that were corroded simultaneously. The uncertainties in the measured corrosion were analyzed using error propagation of the uncertainties in the measured pressures and displacements and were found to be <1% of the initial diaphragm thickness.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrating very-high-resolution UAS data and airborne imaging spectroscopy to map the fractional composition of Arctic plant functional types in Western Alaska

Widespread changes in vegetation cover and composition are driving strong impacts on Arctic ecosystem functioning and global climate feedbacks. An accurate characterization of tundra vegetation composition is required to understand how the Arctic will respond to future climate change. However, quantifying tundra vegetation composition over large areas is challenging as commonly-used satellite observations are too coarse, spatially and spectrally, to differentiate low-lying tundra vegetation types. Recent airborne and spaceborne imaging spectroscopy platforms provide better data to characterize vegetation composition. Yet, our ability to characterize vegetation composition with imaging spectroscopy remains largely unexplored in the Arctic, particularly due to a lack of ground observations needed to train and test classification models. To address this problem, we collected very-high-resolution (VHR, ~5 cm) unoccupied aerial system (UAS) imagery at three low-Arctic tundra sites located on the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of integrating imagery from the UAS and the hyperspectral Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer, Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) airborne instrument to map the fractional composition of 12 key Arctic plant functional types (PFTs). To this end, we first mapped the 12 PFTs from our VHR UAS imagery using random forest classification. We then used these UAS-derived PFT maps as ground truth to develop partial least squares regression (PLSR) models to predict the fractional cover (FCover) of each PFT from AVIRIS-NG imagery. Further, we evaluated the performance of our PLSR models using reserved UAS samples, as well as by mapping PFT FCover and dominant PFT for large tundra landscapes. Our results show that 1) Arctic PFTs can be effectively mapped using VHR UAS imagery, with overall accuracy between 86% and 92%, 2) when the UAS mapped PFTs were used to inform PLSR scaling models, the FCover of the 12 PFTs could be effectively estimated from AVIRIS-NG imagery with a mean absolute error (MAE) <0.13, and 3) our PLSR models outperformed traditional, fully constrained least-squares (FCLS) linear mixture analysis and produced high-quality, spatially contiguous PFT FCover and PFT maps that captured vegetation spatial patterns with similar accuracy to those developed from UAS imagery. The developed PLSR models have the potential to be broadly applied for quantifying vegetation composition with AVIRIS-NG images to help monitor tundra vegetation dynamics and improve process-based modeling of tundra ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Blocking Simulations in GFDL GCMs for CMIP5 and CMIP6

Abstract The frequency of atmospheric blocking has been largely underestimated by general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Errors in the onset, persistence, barotropicity, geographical preference, seasonality, intensity, and moving speed of global blocking were diagnosed in 10 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCMs for recent CMIP5 and CMIP6 using a detection approach that combines zonal eddies and the reversal of zonal winds. The blocking frequency, similar at 500 and 250 hPa, is underestimated by 50% in the Atlantic–Europe region during December–February but is overestimated by 60% in the Pacific–North America region during that season and by 70% in the southwest Pacific during July–August. These blocking biases at 500 hPa were investigated in the five CMIP6 models that showed improvements over the CMIP5 versions. The Atlantic–Europe underestimate corresponds to lower instantaneous blocking rates, lower persistent blocking rates, and higher persistent stationary ridge rates; the number of blocks with a duration of 4–5 days is only 40%–65% of that in observations. In contrast, the overestimate consists of excessive blocks with a duration longer than 12 days in the Pacific–North America and up to twice as many 4–6-day events in the southwest Pacific. Simulated December–February blocks up to 12 days in the Pacific–North America region tend to be stronger and to move more slowly than those in observations. Diagnostic sensitivity tests indicated that the zonal mean and zonal eddy components of the mean state play a key role, as replacing each with that of observations substantially reduced many of the outstanding biases in these GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Generating MCNP Input Files for Unstructured Mesh Geometries

The Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (LANL) Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP)1 transport code version 6.3 (also known as MCNP6.3) has the capability for tracking particles on unstructured mesh (UM) geometry models embedded into constructive solid geometry (CSG) cells. This feature has been developed for performing calculations of complex geometry models because manually creating CSG models is time-consuming and error-prone as the complexities of geometries increase. A UM geometry model is a collection of finite elements representing a solid geometry. The first step of the MCNP UM calculation is using other software packages to create a finite element mesh representation of a solid 3D geometry because the MCNP code cannot be used to generate a UM model. Computer-aided design (CAD) software is typically used to create a solid geometry model, which is later imported into mesh generation software to create a UM model. Some mesh generation software packages may also be used to create solid geometries and thus CAD files are not needed. The MCNP UM feature was originally designed for models generated by the Abaqus/CAE software suite. The MCNP code version 6.0 and later can process UM models formatted as Abaqus input files. Starting with a 6.3 version, the MCNP code can process HDF5 mesh input files. We only focus on the UM models formatted as Abaqus input files in this report since currently no external software can be used to generate HDF5 mesh input files for MCNP UM calculations. The MCNP code version 6.3 can be used to convert the Abaqus mesh input files into the HDF5 mesh input files, but this option is typically used by the MCNP code development team to test the HDF5 mesh input file feature. Several software packages (such as Abaqus, Attila4MC, or Cubit) can be used to create the Abaqus input files for MCNP UM calculations. An MCNP UM calculation using an Abaqus model requires two input file types: MCNP and Abaqus input files. The Abaqus input files needed for MCNP UM calcu lations must have the correct Abaqus syntax and meet the additional requirements by the MCNP code. The MCNP code can process only Abaqus input files that make use of part and assembly definitions, where elements in each part must be grouped into one or more element sets (i.e., elset) using *Elset keyword lines with specified naming formats. The MCNP and Abaqus input files required for MCNP UM simulations must be related; pseudo-cells in an MCNP input file must be constructed from mesh model data from an Abaqus input file. For large complex UM models, it is tedious to manually create MCNP UM input files. The um pre op (unstructured mesh pre operations) program with the -m option can be used to create a skeleton MCNP input file from an Abaqus input file [6]. Since the um pre op program was written in Fortran and was not written for optimized performance, this program is a deprecated feature in the MCNP code version 6.3 and may be removed in the next release of the code. To improve calculation flow of multiphysics calculations, a Python3 code called write mcnp um input has been developed to generate an MCNP input file instead of using the um_pre_op -m option. This Python code was initially released to the public in 2020. We have updated this Python code for MCNP6.3 and it was used to generate the MCNP input files used to verify the MCNP6.3 code. The write_mcnp_um_input code is included with the MCNP6.3 code package which will be released to the public through the Radiation Safety Information Computational Center (RSICC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This report is a revision of LA-UR-20-27139 report.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Understanding Growth Dynamics and Yield Prediction of Sorghum Using High Temporal Resolution UAV Imagery Time Series and Machine Learning

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) carrying multispectral cameras are increasingly being used for high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) of above-ground traits of crops to study genetic diversity, resource use efficiency and responses to abiotic or biotic stresses. There is significant unexplored potential for repeated data collection through a field season to reveal information on the rates of growth and provide predictions of the final yield. Generating such information early in the season would create opportunities for more efficient in-depth phenotyping and germplasm selection. This study tested the use of high-resolution time-series imagery (5 or 10 sampling dates) to understand the relationships between growth dynamics, temporal resolution and end-of-season above-ground biomass (AGB) in 869 diverse accessions of highly productive (mean AGB = 23.4 Mg/Ha), photoperiod sensitive sorghum. Canopy surface height (CSM), ground cover (GC), and five common spectral indices were considered as features of the crop phenotype. Spline curve fitting was used to integrate data from single flights into continuous time courses. Random Forest was used to predict end-of-season AGB from aerial imagery, and to identify the most informative variables driving predictions. Improved prediction of end-of-season AGB (RMSE reduction of 0.24 Mg/Ha) was achieved earlier in the growing season (10 to 20 days) by leveraging early- and mid-season measurement of the rate of change of geometric and spectral features. Early in the season, dynamic traits describing the rates of change of CSM and GC predicted end-of-season AGB best. Late in the season, CSM on a given date was the most influential predictor of end-of-season AGB. The power to predict end-of-season AGB was greatest at 50 days after planting, accounting for 63% of variance across this very diverse germplasm collection with modest error (RMSE 1.8 Mg/ha). End-of-season AGB could be predicted equally well when spline fitting was performed on data collected from five flights versus 10 flights over the growing season. This demonstrates a more valuable and efficient approach to using UAVs for HTP, while also proposing strategies to add further value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Testing general relativity on cosmological scales at redshift z ∼ 1.5 with quasar and CMB lensing

ABSTRACT We test general relativity (GR) at the effective redshift $\bar{z} \sim 1.5$ by estimating the statistic EG, a probe of gravity, on cosmological scales $19 - 190\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$. This is the highest redshift and largest scale estimation of EG so far. We use the quasar sample with redshifts 0.8 < z < 2.2 from Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 16 as the large-scale structure (LSS) tracer, for which the angular power spectrum $C_\ell ^{qq}$ and the redshift-space distortion parameter β are estimated. By cross-correlating with the Planck 2018 cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing map, we detect the angular cross-power spectrum $C_\ell ^{\kappa q}$ signal at $12\, \sigma$ significance. Both jackknife resampling and simulations are used to estimate the covariance matrix (CM) of EG at five bins covering different scales, with the later preferred for its better constraints on the covariances. We find EG estimates agree with the GR prediction at $1\, \sigma$ level over all these scales. With the CM estimated with 300 simulations, we report a best-fitting scale-averaged estimate of $E_G(\bar{z})=0.30\pm 0.05$, which is in line with the GR prediction $E_G^{\rm GR}(\bar{z})=0.33$ with Planck 2018 CMB + BAO matter density fraction Ωm = 0.31. The statistical errors of EG with future LSS surveys at similar redshifts will be reduced by an order of magnitude, which makes it possible to constrain modified gravity models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Atomic masses with machine learning for the astrophysical r process

The astrophysical r process plays a vital role in the production of heavy elements. Modeling of the r process is sensitive to masses and further requires knowledge of masses beyond current experimental reach. Therefore, simulations of the r process offer a unique test bed for predicting mass extrapolations. We take a Machine-Learning (ML) approach to model the masses across the entire chart of nuclides. For the first time, we simulate r-process nucleosynthesis with a physics-based ML mass model. We compare simulated abundances to solar data in order to evaluate the model's performance far from stability. The resulting r-process abundances up to thorium and uranium qualitatively match those of the observed solar system abundance pattern, with the characteristic peaks well positioned. We propagate the mass uncertainties obtained from the ML model to r-process abundance yields to estimate an uncertainty band associated with our approach. The size of the uncertainty band is approximately one order of magnitude which aligns with the uncertainty reported using alternative techniques.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A first principles framework to predict the transient performance of latent heat thermal energy storage

Thermal energy storage (TES) is increasingly recognized as an essential component of efficient Combined Heat and Power (CHP), Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC), and refrigeration as it reduces peak demand while helping to manage intermittent availability of energy (e.g., from solar or wind). Latent Heat Thermal Energy Storage (LHTES) is a viable option because of its high energy storage density. Parametric analysis of LHTES in terms of dimensionless numbers is highly desired as a tool to model LHTES systems. One approach is to develop a model equation so as to minimize the error between the model and data obtained from experiments or simulations. While this approach can produce an accurate correlation applicable within the range of data used for its creation, it does not provide physical understanding of the rate-limiting process controlling the transient behavior of the device. In this paper we present an alternative approach whereby the potential rate-limiting processes are identified from first principles and then the key process is determined as a function of time as a LHTES device is charged. For example, in a simple geometry, the melt-fraction can be expected to vary linearly in time if the heat transfer rate is limited by natural convection of the phase changing material and we show it scales with the PCM Grashof number as $Gr^1_p$ and PCM Prandtl number as $Pr_p^{(1/3)}$. On the other hand, if surface area of solid PCM limits the heat transfer rate, the melt fraction increases asymptotically to reach full melting. The existence of these linear and asymptotic regions and the $Gr^1_pP r^{1/3}_p$ shape of the melt fraction curve is verified using our database of 64 simulations. Of practical importance in designing LHTES devices is the melt fraction at which the heat transfer rate ceases to be limited by convection, after which the heat storage rate deteriorates. For our geometry, this is found to be about 90%. This test case of our methodology shows the value of our approach, that predicting heat storage rate based on the rate-limiting physical phenomenon as a function of time is an effective approach to modeling LHTES devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The dynamical state of RXCJ1230.7+3439: A multi-substructured merging galaxy cluster

We analyse the kinematical and dynamical state of the galaxy cluster RXCJ1230.7+3439 (RXCJ1230), at $z$ = 0.332 using 93 new spectroscopic redshifts of galaxies acquired at the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo and from SDSS DR16 public data. We study the density galaxy distribution retrieved from photometric SDSS multiband data and find that RXCJ1230 appears as a clearly isolated peak in the redshift space, with a global line-of-sight (LOS) velocity dispersion of $σ$ v = 1004 -122 +147 km s -1 . Several tests applied to the spatial and velocity distributions reveal that RXCJ1230 is a complex system with the presence of three subclusters, located to the southwest, east, and south with respect to the main body of the cluster, containing several bright galaxies (BGs) in their respective cores. Our analyses confirm that the three substructures are in a pre-merger phase, where the main interaction takes place with the southwest subclump, almost in the plane of the sky. We compute a velocity dispersion of $σ$ v ~ 1000 and $σ$ v ~ 800 km s -1 for the main cluster and the southwest substructure, respectively. The central main body and southwest substructure differ by ~870 km s -1 in the LOS velocity. From these data, we estimate a dynamical mass of $M$ 200 = 9.0 ± 1.5 × 1014 $M$ ⊙ and 4.4 ± 3.3 × 1014 $M$ ⊙ for the RXCJ1230 main body and southwest clump, respectively, which reveals that the cluster will undergo a merger characterised by a 2:1 mass ratio impact. We solve a two-body problem for this interaction and find that the most likely solution suggests that the merging axis lies ~17° from the plane of the sky and the subcluster will fully interact in ~0.3 Gyr. However, a slight excess in the X-ray temperature observed in the southwest clump confirms a certain degree of interaction already. The comparison between the dynamical masses and those derived from X-ray data reveals good agreement within errors (differences ~15%), which suggests that the innermost regions (< r 500 ) of the galaxy clumps are almost in hydrostatical equilibrium. In summary, RXCJ1230 is a young but also massive cluster in a pre-merging phase accreting other galaxy systems from its environment.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗