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Results for “error estimation and analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1977

Study to investigate and evaluate means of optimizing the Ku-band combined radar/communication functions for the space shuttle

The performance of the space shuttle orbiter's Ku-Band integrated radar and communications equipment is analyzed for the radar mode of operation. The block diagram of the rendezvous radar subsystem is described. Power budgets for passive target detection are calculated, based on the estimated values of system losses. Requirements for processing of radar signals in the search and track modes are examined. Time multiplexed, single-channel, angle tracking of passive scintillating targets is analyzed. Radar performance in the presence of main lobe ground clutter is considered and candidate techniques for clutter suppression are discussed. Principal system parameter drivers are examined for the case of stationkeeping at ranges comparable to target dimension. Candidate ranging waveforms for short range operation are analyzed and compared. The logarithmic error discriminant utilized for range, range rate and angle tracking is formulated and applied to the quantitative analysis of radar subsystem tracking loops.

Weber, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Geographical representation of radial orbit perturbations due to ocean tides: Implications for satellite altimetry

In analogy to the geographical representation of the zeroth-order radial orbit perturbations due to the static geopotential, similar relationships have been derived for radial orbit perturbations due to the ocean tides. At each location these perturbations are seen to be coherent with the tide height variations. The study of this singularity is of obvious importance to the estimation of ocean tides from satellite altimeter data. We derive analytical expressions for the sensitivity of altimeter derived ocean tide models to the ocean tide force model induced errors in the orbits of the altimeter satellite. In particular, we focus on characterizing and quantifying the nonresonant tidal orbit perturbations, which cannot be adjusted into the empirical accelerations or radial perturbation adjustments commonly used during orbit determination and in altimeter data processing. As an illustration of the utility of this technique, we study the differences between a TOPEX/POSEIDON-derived ocean tide model and the Cartwright and Ray 1991 Geosat model. This analysis shows that nearly 60% of the variance of this difference for M(sub 2) can be explained by the Geosat radial orbit eror due to the omission of coefficients from the GEM-T2 background ocean tide model. For O(sub 1), K(sub 1), S(sub 2), and K(sub 2) the orbital effects account for approximately 10 to 40% of the variances of these differences. The utility of this technique to assessment of the ocean tide induced errors in the TOPEX/POSEIDON-derived tide models is also discussed.

Bettadpur, Srinivas V.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-time elemental analysis of liquids for process monitoring using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy with a liquid wheel sampling approach

This article presents an engineered sampling system that used a rotating wheel to form a thin liquid layer, permitting the use of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for in situ, real-time elemental impurity quantification during liquid processing. The sampling approach was demonstrated on eight elements from across the periodic table (Na, Al, K, Ca, Ti, Sr, Mo, and Yb). Univariate and multivariate calibrations were presented for each element. The average value for percent root mean square errors of cross-validation for the multivariate models was 3.64%, highlighting the method's strong prediction accuracy. Additionally, the limits of detection for each analyte were estimated from their univariate models: Na = 0.0532, Al = 18.5, K = 0.105, Ca = 0.273, Ti = 67.7, Sr = 0.640, Mo = 22.4, and Yb = 22.9 μg mL –1 . Finally, a test in which multivariate models were used to monitor a liquid system for 80 min was performed to investigate the real-time monitoring capabilities of this liquid LIBS sampling approach. Rigorous measurements were performed to effectively predict the absence and concentrations of multiple analytes as they were spiked and diluted. This demonstration showed the feasibility of using LIBS for real-time liquid quantification models with estimated precision ≤ 8.1%. Finally, the limitations of this approach and potential future improvements are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1994

Optical position measurement for a large gap magnetic suspension system: Design and performance analysis

An optical measurement system (OMS) has been designed and tested for a large gap magnetic suspension system (LGMSS). The LGMSS will be used to study control laws for magnetic suspension systems for vibration isolation and pointing applications. The LGMSS features six degrees of freedom and consists of a planar array of electromagnets that levitate and position a cylindrical element containing a permanent magnet core. The OMS provides information on the location and orientation of the element to the LGMSS control system to stabilize suspension. The hardware design of this optical sensing system and the tracking algorithms are presented. The results of analyses and experiments are presented that define the accuracy limits of the optical sensing system and that quantify the errors in position estimation.

Welch, Sharon S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Finite dimensional approximation of a class of constrained nonlinear optimal control problems

An abstract framework for the analysis and approximation of a class of nonlinear optimal control and optimization problems is constructed. Nonlinearities occur in both the objective functional and in the constraints. The framework includes an abstract nonlinear optimization problem posed on infinite dimensional spaces, and approximate problem posed on finite dimensional spaces, together with a number of hypotheses concerning the two problems. The framework is used to show that optimal solutions exist, to show that Lagrange multipliers may be used to enforce the constraints, to derive an optimality system from which optimal states and controls may be deduced, and to derive existence results and error estimates for solutions of the approximate problem. The abstract framework and the results derived from that framework are then applied to three concrete control or optimization problems and their approximation by finite element methods. The first involves the von Karman plate equations of nonlinear elasticity, the second, the Ginzburg-Landau equations of superconductivity, and the third, the Navier-Stokes equations for incompressible, viscous flows.

Gunzburger, Max D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A New Global Mascon Solution Tuned for High-Latitude Ice Studies

A new global mascon solution has been developed with I-arc-degree spatial and IO-day temporal sampling. The global mas cons are estimated from the reduction of nearly 8 years of GRACE K-band range-rate data. Temporal and anisotropic spatial constraints have been applied for land, ocean and ice regions. The solution construction and tuning is focused towards the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS) as well as the Gulf of Alaska mountain glaciers (GoA). Details of the solution development will be discussed, including the mascon parameter definitions, constraints, and the tuning of the constraint damping factor. Results will be presented, exploring the spatial and temporal variability of the ice sheets and GoA regions. A detailed error analysis will be discussed, including solution dependence on iteration, damping factor, forward modeling, and multitechnique comparisons. We also investigate the fundamental resolution of the solution and the spatial correlation of ice sheet inter-annual change. Finally, we discuss future improvements, including specific constraint application for the rest of the major land ice regions and improvements in solution regularization.

Luthcke, S. B.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Asymmetry in Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Forecast Error with Respect to Soil Moisture Initialization

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

Air Temperature↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

T2M Forecasts at Subseasonal Leads: Do Different Soil Moisture Initial States Have Different Impacts?

2-meter Temperature↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Infusing Statistical Thinking into the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign

Statistical thinking permeates many important decisions as NASA plans its Quesst mission, which will culminate in a series of community overflights using the X-59 aircraft to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. Month-long longitudinal surveys will be deployed to assess human perception and annoyance to this new acoustic phenomenon. NASA works with a large contractor team to develop systems and methodologies to estimate noise doses, to test and field socio-acoustic surveys, and to study the relationship between the two quantities, dose and response, through appropriate choices of statistical models. This latter dose-response relationship will serve as an important tool as national and international noise regulators debate whether overland supersonic flights could be permitted once again within permissible noise limits. In this presentation we highlight several areas where statistical thinking has come into play, including issues of sampling, classification and data fusion, and analysis of longitudinal survey data that are subject to rare events and the consequences of measurement error. We note several operational constraints that shape the appeal or feasibility of some decisions on statistical approaches, and we identify several important remaining questions to be addressed.

Bayesian model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Equilibrium Core Model for Micro Pebble Bed Reactors Using OpenMC

Estimating the equilibrium state for pebble bed reactors (PBRs) presents complex challenges as it requires simultaneous consideration of changes in the pebbles’ movement as well as their fuel compositions. Whereas traditional approaches use multigroup diffusion codes for neutronics calculations of PBRs’ equilibrium state, the double-heterogeneity of PBRs complicates neutron cross-section generation. Continuous-energy Monte Carlo (MC) methods are better suited for detailed PBR analysis because of their natural handling of double-heterogeneity, but they demand substantially more computational resources. Here, this study introduces a novel method for efficiently estimating the equilibrium state in small and micro PBRs with reduced computational cost. The method is anticipated to accelerate the processes of core design and performing parametric studies for utilizing advanced fuel and structural materials. The HTR-10 reactor design was used for validating the method’s predictions and evaluating its computational efficiency. When compared to reference calculation values from the literature, criticality (k-effective) was predicted to be approximately within the margin of error of the MC transport calculation, average core power density (in megawatts per cubic meter) was predicted within 2.5% relative error, and maximum thermal flux (10 13 n/cm 2 .s −1 ) was predicted within 1.8% relative error. The calculated inventory of fission products and fuel composition in the equilibrium core were within 15% and 16.6%, respectively, when compared to reported values from the literature. The difference is attributed to variance in the considered values of the core temperature, which was found to significantly affect the depletion analyses.

Equilibrium core↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the local dark matter density in a non-axisymmetric wobbling disc

The density of dark matter near the Sun, ρDM, ⊙, is important for experiments hunting for dark matter particles in the laboratory, and for constraining the local shape of the Milky Way’s dark matter halo. Estimates to date have typically assumed that the Milky Way’s stellar disc is axisymmetric and in a steady-state. Yet the Milky Way disc is neither, exhibiting prominent spiral arms and a bar, and vertical and radial oscillations. Here, we assess the impact of these assumptions on determinations of ρDM, ⊙ by applying a free-form, steady-state, Jeans method to two different N-body simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies. In one, the galaxy has experienced an ancient major merger, similar to the hypothesized Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus; in the other, the galaxy is perturbed more recently by the repeated passage and slow merger of a Sagittarius-like dwarf galaxy. We assess the impact of each of the terms in the Jeans–Poisson equations on our ability to correctly extract ρDM, ⊙ from the simulated data. We find that common approximations employed in the literature – axisymmetry and a locally flat rotation curve – can lead to significant systematic errors of up to a factor ~1.5 in the recovered surface mass density ~2 kpc above the disc plane, implying a fractional error on ρDM, ⊙ of the order of unity. However, once we add in the tilt term and the rotation curve term in our models, we obtain an unbiased estimate of ρDM, ⊙, consistent with the true value within our 95 percent confidence intervals for realistic 20 percent uncertainties on the baryonic surface density of the disc. Other terms – the axial tilt, 2nd Poisson and time-dependent terms – contribute less than 10 percent to ρDM, ⊙ (given current data) and can be safely neglected for now. In the future, as more data become available, these terms will need to be included in the analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physical-mass calculation of ρ ( 770 ) and K * ( 892 ) resonance parameters via π π and K π scattering amplitudes from lattice QCD

We present our study of the ρ ( 770 ) and K * ( 892 ) resonances from lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) employing domain-wall fermions at physical quark masses. We determine the finite-volume energy spectrum in various momentum frames and obtain phase-shift parametrizations via the Lüscher formalism and as a final step the complex resonance poles of the π π and K π elastic scattering amplitudes via an analytical continuation of the models. By sampling a large number of representative sets of underlying energy-level fits, we also assign a systematic uncertainty to our final results. This is a significant extension to data-driven analysis methods that have been used in lattice QCD to date, due to the two-step nature of the formalism. Our final pole positions, M + i Γ / 2 , with all statistical and systematic errors exposed, are M K * = 893 ( 2 ) ( 8 ) ( 54 ) ( 2 ) MeV and Γ K * = 51 ( 2 ) ( 11 ) ( 3 ) ( 0 ) MeV for the K * ( 892 ) resonance and M ρ = 796 ( 5 ) ( 15 ) ( 48 ) ( 2 ) MeV and Γ ρ = 192 ( 10 ) ( 28 ) ( 12 ) ( 0 ) MeV for the ρ ( 770 ) resonance. The four differently grouped sources of uncertainties are, in the order of occurrence: statistical, data-driven systematic, an estimation of systematic effects beyond our computation (dominated by the fact that we employ a single lattice spacing), and the error from the scale-setting uncertainty on our ensemble. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spectral density reconstruction with Chebyshev polynomials

Accurate calculations of the spectral density in a strongly correlated quantum many-body system are of fundamental importance to study its dynamics in the linear response regime. Typical examples are the calculation of inclusive and semiexclusive scattering cross sections in atomic nuclei and transport properties of nuclear and neutron star matter. Integral transform techniques play an important role in accessing the spectral density in a variety of nuclear systems. However, their accuracy is in practice limited by the need to perform a numerical inversion which is often ill-conditioned. Here, in the present work we extend a recently proposed quantum algorithm which circumvents this problem. We show how to perform controllable reconstructions of the spectral density over a finite energy resolution with rigorous error estimates. An appropriate expansion in Chebyshev polynomials allows for efficient simulations also on classical computers. We apply our idea to obtain the local density of states for graphene in a magnetic field as a proof of principle. This paves the way for future applications in nuclear and condensed matter physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Enhanced decoding for the Galileo S-band mission

A coding system under consideration for the Galileo S-band low-gain antenna mission is a concatenated system using a variable redundancy Reed-Solomon outer code and a (14,1/4) convolutional inner code. The 8-bit Reed-Solomon symbols are interleaved to depth 8, and the eight 255-symbol codewords in each interleaved block have redundancies 64, 20, 20, 20, 64, 20, 20, and 20, respectively (or equivalently, the codewords have 191, 235, 235, 235, 191, 235, 235, and 235 8-bit information symbols, respectively). This concatenated code is to be decoded by an enhanced decoder that utilizes a maximum likelihood (Viterbi) convolutional decoder; a Reed Solomon decoder capable of processing erasures; an algorithm for declaring erasures in undecoded codewords based on known erroneous symbols in neighboring decodable words; a second Viterbi decoding operation (redecoding) constrained to follow only paths consistent with the known symbols from previously decodable Reed-Solomon codewords; and a second Reed-Solomon decoding operation using the output from the Viterbi redecoder and additional erasure declarations to the extent possible. It is estimated that this code and decoder can achieve a decoded bit error rate of 1 x 10(exp 7) at a concatenated code signal-to-noise ratio of 0.76 dB. By comparison, a threshold of 1.17 dB is required for a baseline coding system consisting of the same (14,1/4) convolutional code, a (255,223) Reed-Solomon code with constant redundancy 32 also interleaved to depth 8, a one-pass Viterbi decoder, and a Reed Solomon decoder incapable of declaring or utilizing erasures. The relative gain of the enhanced system is thus 0.41 dB. It is predicted from analysis based on an assumption of infinite interleaving that the coding gain could be further improved by approximately 0.2 dB if four stages of Viterbi decoding and four levels of Reed-Solomon redundancy are permitted. Confirmation of this effect and specification of the optimum four-level redundancy profile for depth-8 interleaving is currently being done.

Dolinar, S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A statistical analysis of the broadband 0.1 to 3.5 keV spectral properties of X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei

We survey the broadband spectral properties of approximately 500 X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) observed with the Einstein Observatory. Included in this survey are the approximately 450 AGNs in the Extended Medium Sensitivity Survey (EMSS) of Gioia et al. (1990) and the approximately 50 AGNs in the Ultrasoft Survey of Cordova et al. (1992). We present a revised version of the latter sample, based on the post publication discovery of a software error in the Einstein Rev-1b processing. We find that the mean spectral index of the AGNs between 0.1 and 0.6 keV is softer, and the distribution of indices wider, than previous estimates based on analyses of the X-ray spectra of optically selected AGNs. A subset of these AGNs exhibit flux variabiulity, some on timescales as short as 0.05 days. A correlation between radio and hard X-ray luminosity is confirmed, but the data do not support a correlation between the radio and soft X-ray luminosities, or between radio loudness and soft X-ray spectral slope. Evidence for physically distinct soft and hard X-ray components is found, along with the possibility of a bias in previous optically selected samples toward selection of AGNs with flatter X-ray spectra.

Thompson, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Non-Equilibrium Radiation for Earth Entry

For Earth re-entry at velocities between 8 and 11.5 km/s, the accuracy of NASA's computational uid dynamic and radiative simulations of non-equilibrium shock layer radiation is assessed through comparisons with measurements. These measurements were obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The experiments were aimed at measuring the spatially and spectrally resolved radiance at relevant entry conditions for both an approximate Earth atmosphere (79% N2 : 21% O2 by mole) as well as a more accurate composition featuring the trace species Ar and CO2 (78.08% N2 : 20.95% O2 : 0.04% CO2 : 0.93% Ar by mole). The experiments were configured to target a wide range of conditions, of which shots from 8 to 11.5 km/s at 0.2 Torr (26.7 Pa) are examined in this paper. The non-equilibrium component was chosen to be the focus of this study as it can account for a significant percentage of the emitted radiation for Earth re-entry, and more importantly, non-equilibrium has traditionally been assigned a large uncertainty for vehicle design. The main goals of this study are to present the shock tube data in the form of a non-equilibrium metric, evaluate the level of agreement between the experiment and simulations, identify key discrepancies and to examine critical aspects of modeling non-equilibrium radiating flows. Radiance pro les integrated over discreet wavelength regions, ranging from the Vacuum Ultra Violet (VUV) through to the Near Infra-Red (NIR), were compared in order to maximize both the spectral coverage and the number of experiments that could be used in the analysis. A previously defined non-equilibrium metric has been used to allow comparisons with several shots and reveal trends in the data. Overall, LAURA/HARA is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 40% and over-predict by as much as 12% depending on the shock speed. DPLR/NEQAIR is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 50% and over-predict by as much as 20% depending on the shock speed. The one standard deviation scatter in the EAST results was calculated to be 31%. An estimate for the upper bound of the absolute error in wall-directed heat flux was calculated. Below 9 km/s, where the relative difference is large, the absolute error in radiative heat flux due to non-equilibrium models is estimated to be less then 1 W/sq cm. At the highest shock speed of 11 km/s, the error in non-equilibrium is estimated to be less than 20 W/sq cm.

Shock Tube↗

NASA NTRS1979

Performance Analysis of the Spaceborne Laser Ranging System

The 'spaceborne laser ranging system' is a proposed short pulse laser on board an orbiting spacecraft. It measures the distances between the spacecraft and many laser retroreflectors (targets) deployed on the earth's surface. The precision of these range measurements was assumed to be about plus or minus 2 cm. These measurements were then used together with the orbital dynamics of the spacecraft to derive the intersite vector between the laser ground targets. The errors associated with this vector were on the order of 1 to 2 cm. The baseline distances determined range from 25 km to 1200 km. By repeating the measurements of the intersite vector, strain and strain rate errors were estimated. The realizable precision for intersite distance determination was estimated to be on the order of 0.5 cm at 300 km and about 1.5 cm at 1200 km. The corresponding inaccuracies for the intersite distances were larger, than is 1 cm and 3.5 cm respectively. The corresponding precision in the vertical direction was 1 cm and 3 cm.

Kahn, W. D.↗