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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Full-potential modeling of blade-vortex interactions

A comparison is made of four different models for predicting the unsteady loading induced by a vortex passing close to an airfoil. (1) The first model approximates the vortex effect as a change in the airfoil angle of attack. (2) The second model is related to the first but, instead of imposing only a constant velocity on the airfoil, the distributed effect of the vortex is computed and used. This is analogous to a lifting surface method. (3) The third model is to specify a branch cut discontinuity in the potential field. The vortex is modeled as a jump in potential across the branch cut, the edge of which represents the center of the vortex. (4) The fourth method models the vortex expressing the potential as the sum of a known potential due to the vortex and an unknown perturbation due to the airfoil. The purpose of the current study is to investigate the four vortex models described above and to determine their relative merits and suitability for use in large three-dimensional codes.

Jones, H. E.↗

Full potential modeling of blade-vortex interactions

A comparison is made of four different models for predicting the unsteady loading induced by a vortex passing close to an airfoil. (1) The first model approximates the vortex effect as a change in the airfoil angle of attack. (2) The second model is related to the first but, instead of imposing only a constant velocity on the airfoil, the distributed effect of the vortex is computed and used. This is analogous to a lifting surface method. (3) The third model is to specify a branch cut discontinuity in the potential field. The vortex is modeled as a jump in potential across the branch cut, the edge of which represents the center of the vortex. (4) The fourth method models the vortex expressing the potential as the sum of as known potential due to the vortex and an unknown perturbation due to the airfoil. The purpose of the current study is to investigate the four vortex models described above and to determine their relative merits and suitability for use in large three-dimensional codes.

Jones, H. E.↗

Collected Data of The Boreal Ecosystem and Atmosphere Study (BOREAS)

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) was a large-scale international interdisciplinary climate-ecosystem interaction experiment in the northern boreal forests of Canada. Its goal was to improve our understanding of the boreal forests -- how they interact with the atmosphere, how much CO2 they can store, and how climate change will affect them. BOREAS wanted to learn to use satellite data to monitor the forests, and to improve computer simulation and weather models so scientists can anticipate the effects of global change. This BOREAS CD-ROM set is a set of 12 CD-ROMs containing the finalized point data sets and compressed image data from the BOREAS Project. All point data are stored in ASCII text files, and all image and GIS products are stored as binary images, compressed using GZip. Additional descriptions of the various data sets on this CD-ROM are available in other documents in the BOREAS series.

Newcomer, J.↗

How will future climate change impact prescribed fire across the contiguous United States?

As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal changes of littoral transport and beach width and resulting effect on protective structures

The shorelines of Maryland's portion of the Chesapeake Bay exhibit seasonal changes in direction of littoral transport and resulting beach width. Observation and study of this process at selected locations emphasizes the necessity of study for a complete year's seasonal cycle before stating erosion rates of an area to be protected by structures and the cyclincal presence or absence of beaches. Seasonal beach conditions at four selected sites are described along with resulting physical changes to protective structures. Through the use of ERTS-1 multi-spectral photography, it will be possible to make widespread predictions elsewhere in the Bay as a direct aid in protective structure design.

Slaughter, T. H.↗

Ion beam texturing of heat transfer surfaces

Nucleate boiling heat transfer is examined as a means of energy conservation. Nucleate boiling curves were obtained for ion beam textured copper surfaces, untreated cooper surfaces, copper surfaces which had been polished and surfaces which had been coated with a plasma deposited polymer. Results show that texturing aids heat transfer while polishing has the opposite effect. The polymer coatings did not change nucleate boiling behavior. Aging effects were observed for untreated and for polished surfaces, while no such effects were noticed for textured surfaces. These data suggest that aging may be dependent on surface microgeometry, which is important in nucleate boiling heat transfer.

Agarwal, P. K.↗

Irreparable Interphase Chemistry Degradation Induced by Temperature Pulse in Lithium–Ion Batteries

While it is widely recognized that the operating temperature significantly affects the energy density and cycle life of lithium-ion batteries, the consequence of electrode-electrolyte interphase chemistry to sudden environmental temperature changes remains inadequately understood. Here, we systematically investigate the effects of a temperature pulse (T pulse) on the electrochemical performance of LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 (NMC811) pouch full cells. By utilizing advanced characterization tools, such as time-of-flight secondary-ion mass spectrometry, we reveal that the T pulse can lead to an irreversible degradation of cathode-electrolyte interphase chemistry and architecture. Despite negligible immediate impacts on the solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) on graphite anode, aggregated cathode-to-anode chemical crossover gradually degrades the SEI by catalyzing electrolyte reduction decomposition and inducing metallic dead Li formation because of insufficient cathode passivation after the T pulse. Consequently, pouch cells subjected to the T pulse show an inferior cycle stability to those free of the T pulse. Furthermore, this work unveils the effects of sudden temperature changes on the interphase chemistry and cell performance, emphasizing the importance of a proper temperature management in assessing performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Review of Resilience and Long-Term Planning in Power and Water Systems in the United States

There is recognition among power and water utilities that the frequency and magnitude of high consequence and low probability events could increase as a result of climate change. The interconnected nature of energy-water systems raises the possibility of cascading failures, increasing complexity and risks. Resilience and long-term planning are important ways of weathering the effects of climate change. First, to understand more about resilience, we reviewed existing literature on resilience definitions, metrics, and modeling, focusing on integrated water-power systems. Second, to understand how resilience and planning are being applied in practice, we interviewed utilities and organized, curated, and synthesized the interview data to arrive at several key findings, which are presented here. We found that there is not a consistent definition for resilience, yet it is something that utilities regularly plan for, often with different names and varying methods/measures. However, there is a tangible shift in the industry towards defining and determining measurable resilience metrics. While the exact metrics are a work in progress, utilities are taking steps forward by (1) putting people and culture at the center of resilience, (2) recognizing their own interdependencies, and (3) pursuing better cross-sector collaboration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of structural distortions on the correlated electronic structure of orbital-selective Mott insulating Na 3 ⁢Co 2 ⁢SbO 6 under strain

Na 3 Co 2 SbO 6 is a promising candidate to realize the Kitaev spin liquid phase since the large Kitaev spin exchange interaction is tunable via the change in electronic structure, such as the trigonal crystal field splitting (Δ TCF ). Here, in this study, we show that the uncorrelated electronic structure of Na 3 Co 2 SbO 6 is rather insensitive to the strain effect due to the low crystal symmetry accompanied by oxygen displacements and the presence of Sb s orbitals. Using density functional theory plus dynamical mean field theory, we find that the correlated electronic structure of Na 3 Co 2 SbO 6 is an orbital-selective Mott insulating state where the trigonal a 1g orbital is insulating due to the nearly full occupation, while other d orbitals behave as typical Mott insulators, resulting in the effective tunability of Δ TCF under the strain effect. The sign change of Δ TCF can occur as the in-plane tensile strain is applied, and the Kitaev spin liquid phase could possibly be realized due to the strongly suppressed Δ TCF under tensile strain. Our results show that the local Co-site symmetry and dynamical correlation effects will play an important role in engineering the novel magnetic phase in this and related materials.

Nguyen, Nam [Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL (Unite↗

Detection and attribution of long-term and fine-scale changes in spring phenology over urban areas: A case study in New York State

Spring phenology plays an essential role in climate change, terrestrial ecosystem, and public health. Field-based monitoring and understanding of changes in spring phenology for long periods and in large regions are challenging due to the limited in-site observations. Space-based remotely sensed observations offer great potentials for monitoring decadal spring phenology changes from regional to global scales. However, the coarse-scale remotely sensed observations are insufficient to capture fine-scale spring phenology dynamics, especially in urban areas, and this makes it challenging for understanding the combined effects of climate change and urbanization on spring phenology. We derived the start of phenology season (SOS) in New York State using 30 m Landsat observations from 1990 to 2015 to understand the impact of the environment and urbanization on SOS. The results show that SOS for different years reveals heterogeneous spatial distribution. Most regions of New York State have been experiencing significant spring phenology changes in form of earlier onset of vegetation greening, ranging from 0.2 to 0.6 day/year during 1990 to 2015, and this trend varies slightly with latitudes and urbanization levels. Further, spatial correlation analysis shows that the increase in temperature and urbanization could both promote the advancement of SOS. However, the effect of urbanization (partial correlation coefficient (R) ranges from −0.289 to −0.542) on SOS is greater than the effect of temperature (R ranges from 0.006 to −0.192). The study generates a high spatio-temporal resolution spring phenology dataset for ecological, environmental and public health studies, especially in urban areas, and reveals the importance of better accounting for the urbanization effects when quantifying the SOS dynamics in phenology models.

Landsat↗

Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2), respectively, with year 2100 climate and emissions.

Liao, Hong↗

Sign-tunable anomalous Hall effect induced by two-dimensional symmetry-protected nodal structures in ferromagnetic perovskite thin films

Magnetism and spin-orbit coupling are two quintessential ingredients underlying topological transport phenomena in itinerant ferromagnets. When spin-polarized bands support nodal points/lines with band degeneracy that can be lifted by spin-orbit coupling, the nodal structures become a source of Berry curvature, leading to a large anomalous Hall effect. However, two-dimensional systems can possess stable nodal structures only when proper crystalline symmetry exists. Here, in this study, we show that two-dimensional spin-polarized band structures of perovskite oxides generally support symmetry-protected nodal lines and points that govern both the sign and the magnitude of the anomalous Hall effect. To demonstrate this, we performed angle-resolved photoemission studies of ultrathin films of SrRuO 3 , a representative metallic ferromagnet with spin-orbit coupling. We show that the sign-changing anomalous Hall effect upon variation in the film thickness, magnetization and chemical potential can be well explained by theoretical models. Our work may facilitate new switchable devices based on ferromagnetic ultrathin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The role of sea ice in 2 x CO2 climate model sensitivity. Part 1: The total influence of sea ice thickness and extent

As a first step in investigating the effects of sea ice changes on the climate sensitivity to doubled atmospheric CO2, the authors use a standard simple sea ice model while varying the sea ice distributions and thicknesses in the control run. Thinner ice amplifies the atmospheric temperature senstivity in these experiments by about 15% (to a warming of 4.8 C), because it is easier for the thinner ice to be removed as the climate warms. Thus, its impact on sensitivity is similar to that of greater sea ice extent in the control run, which provides more opportunity for sea ice reduction. An experiment with sea ice not allowed to change between the control and doubled CO2 simulations illustrates that the total effect of sea ice on surface air temperature changes, including cloud cover and water vapor feedbacks that arise in response to sea ice variations, amounts to 37% of the temperature sensitivity to the CO2 doubling, accounting for 1.56 C of the 4.17 C global warming. This is about four times larger than the sea ice impact when no feedbacks are allowed. The different experiments produce a range of results for southern high latitudes with the hydrologic budget over Antarctica implying sea level increases of varying magnitude or no change. These results highlight the importance of properly constraining the sea ice response to climate perturbations, necessitating the use of more realistic sea ice and ocean models.

Rind, D.↗

Algorithm Updates for the Fourth SeaWiFS Data Reprocessing

The efforts to improve the data quality for the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) data products have continued, following the third reprocessing of the global data set in May 2000. Analyses have been ongoing to address all aspects of the processing algorithms, particularly the calibration methodologies, atmospheric correction, and data flagging and masking. All proposed changes were subjected to rigorous testing, evaluation and validation. The results of these activities culminated in the fourth reprocessing, which was completed in July 2002. The algorithm changes, which were implemented for this reprocessing, are described in the chapters of this volume. Chapter 1 presents an overview of the activities leading up to the fourth reprocessing, and summarizes the effects of the changes. Chapter 2 describes the modifications to the on-orbit calibration, specifically the focal plane temperature correction and the temporal dependence. Chapter 3 describes the changes to the vicarious calibration, including the stray light correction to the Marine Optical Buoy (MOBY) data and improved data screening procedures. Chapter 4 describes improvements to the near-infrared (NIR) band correction algorithm. Chapter 5 describes changes to the atmospheric correction and the oceanic property retrieval algorithms, including out-of-band corrections, NIR noise reduction, and handling of unusual conditions. Chapter 6 describes various changes to the flags and masks, to increase the number of valid retrievals, improve the detection of the flag conditions, and add new flags. Chapter 7 describes modifications to the level-la and level-3 algorithms, to improve the navigation accuracy, correct certain types of spacecraft time anomalies, and correct a binning logic error. Chapter 8 describes the algorithm used to generate the SeaWiFS photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) product. Chapter 9 describes a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, which is used in one of the changes described in Chapter 4. Finally, Chapter 10 describes a comparison of results from the third and fourth reprocessings along the US. Northeast coast.

Hooker, Stanford, B.↗

ARES I Aerodynamic Testing at the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel

Small-scale force and moment and pressure models based on the outer mold lines of the Ares I design analysis cycle crew launch vehicle were tested in the NASA Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel from May 2006 to September 2009. The test objectives were to establish supersonic ascent aerodynamic databases and to obtain force and moment, surface pressure, and longitudinal line-load distributions for comparison to computational predictions. Test data were obtained at low through high supersonic Mach numbers for ranges of the Reynolds number, angle of attack, and roll angle. This paper focuses on (1) the sensitivity of the supersonic aerodynamic characteristics to selected protuberances, outer mold line changes, and wind tunnel boundary layer transition techniques, (2) comparisons of experimental data to computational predictions, and (3) data reproducibility. The experimental data obtained in the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel captured the effects of evolutionary changes to the Ares I crew launch vehicle, exhibited good agreement with predictions, and displayed satisfactory within-test and tunnel-to-tunnel data reproducibility.

Erickson, Gary E.↗

Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase understanding and reproducibility, and ultimately increase credibility and trust of the resulting report. Building on the foundation of the NCA, longer term plans for the GCIS include extending these capabilities throughout the U.S. Global Change Research Program, centralizing access to global change data and information across the thirteen agencies that comprise the program.

Tilmes, Curt A.↗

Tonlé Sap Food Security and Agriculture II: Evaluating Changes in Ecosystem Vitality and Freshwater Healthin the Tonlé Sap Basin using Remotely Sensed Data

The Tonlé Sap Lake and river basin in central Cambodia provide critical ecosystem services to the region, including fisheries, agricultural irrigation, hydropower, and biodiverse habitats. Deforestation, increased pumping for farming, and effects of climate change such as droughts and forest fires threaten the health of the lake and food security in the region. This project built upon the previous term through a partnership with Conservation International (CI), the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, and the Tonlé Sap Authority to assess ecosystem vitality and implement CI’s Freshwater Health Index (FHI) tool, in an effort to prioritize resource expenditure and highlight areas of concern. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related travel restrictions, partners had not been able to readily collect in situ data for the past year, which make up the majority of FHI inputs. To help fill this data gap, we developed a methodology for using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data to calculate groundwater storage depletion, and a Python Application Programming Interface for processing and formatting remotely-sensed data for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We then used SWAT to model nutrient flows and of phosphorous, nitrogen and suspended sediments amounts in the basin from October 2000 to December 2020. These outputs served as inputs for the FHI and provided policy makers with robust monitoring information to aid decision-making in the area and safeguard the lake’s vital fisheries and biodiversity.

Justine Spore↗