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DOE OSTI2025

Deep Koopman operators for causal discovery

Causal discovery aims to identify cause-effect mechanisms for better scientific understanding, explainable decision-making, and more accurate modeling. Standard statistical frameworks, such as Granger causality, lack the ability to quantify causal relationships in nonlinear dynamics due to the presence of complex feedback mechanisms, timescale mixing, and nonstationarity. Thus, applying these methods to study causal dynamics in real-world systems, such as the Earth, is a major challenge. Addressing this shortcoming, we leverage deep learning and a Koopman operator-theoretic formalism to present a class of causal discovery algorithms. Kausal uses deep Koopman operator methods to approximate nonlinear dynamics in a linearized vector space in which traditional causal inference methods such as Granger causality can be more easily applied. Our idealized experiments demonstrate Kausal’s superior ability in discovering and characterizing causal signals compared to existing deep learning and non-deep learning state-of-the-art approaches. Finally, the successful identification of major El Niño and La Niña events in observations showcases Kausal’s skill to handle real-world applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decoupling electrode kinetics to elucidate reaction mechanisms in alkaline water electrolysis

Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) presents key advantages, including reduced material costs, enhanced operational stability, and compatibility with non-precious metal catalysts, positioning it as a scalable route for hydrogen production. In this study, we introduce a minimally invasive single-cell configuration incorporating a reference electrode via diaphragm extension to form an internal ion channel. This setup, combined with an interfaced potentiostat and auxiliary electrometer, enables real-time, independent monitoring of anode and cathode behavior, offering high-resolution electrochemical diagnostics. While it is well established that the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) exhibits sluggish kinetics in alkaline media, our study reveals that this limitation persists even in practical AWE systems where nickel-based substrates are used as electrodes. This observation is supported by both experimental data and voltage breakdown modeling. Arrhenius-type analysis reveals that localized electric fields induced by catalysts shift the reaction kinetics from classical Butler–Volmer behavior toward a Marcus-like regime, where interfacial molecular dynamics and bimolecular charge transfer dominate. We propose a semi-empirical model and a surficial reaction mechanism to describe these dynamics. This work underscores the critical need for cathode innovation and provides a rational framework for designing advanced catalysts and electrode architectures to optimize AWE performance.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coupling of organic cation and inorganic lattice in methylammonium lead halide perovskites: Insights into a pressure-induced isostructural phase transition

Organic-inorganic hybrid metal-halide perovskite (OIHP) materials provide a tunable platform for engineering their optoelectronic properties. Although several high-pressure studies have been conducted from the OIHP family of single crystals and films, the exact nature of the dynamic coupling of the CH 3 NH 3 (MA) cation with the octahedral lattice framework and the mechanisms responsible for the structural phase transformation under pressure are not well captured. By combined photoluminescence (PL), synchrotron-based x-ray diffraction, and Raman-scattering studies as a function of pressure from methylammonium lead bromide (MAPbBr 3 ), we shed light on an isostructural phase transition due to the coupling of the MA cation and the PbBr 6 lattice through hydrogen bonding. The sharp discontinuities at ~ 1 GPa and ~ 3 GPa in the PL peak positions correlate with the structural changes observed in high-pressure XRD and Raman-scattering studies. The electronic band edge as a function of pressure is calculated within density-functional theory. The PL peak position, intensity and width of the excitonic peak show significant changes at 2 GPa, which corroborate the changes observed in high-pressure Raman-scattering studies. The frequencies of the lattice modes and the C-H/N-H bending and stretching modes of the MA cation show anomalous changes and other nuances at 2 GPa. The suppression of rotational and orientational disorder of the organic moiety is initiated at 2 GPa and the ordering is completed by 3.0 GPa, leading to an order-disorder type cubic II (Im$\overline{3}$) to orthorhombic ( Pnma ) phase transition. Along with the revelation of an isostructural transformation at 2 GPa, this paper highlights the impact of molecular vibrations on the electronic properties of MAPbBr 3 under pressure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Study of microgrid resilience through co-simulation of power system dynamics and communication systems

The interdependence of power and communication systems in smart grid technologies is acknowledged, but difficult to quantify. Communication systems can be essential to maintaining stability in microgrids that are islanded due to extreme events. Though many power system studies assume the presence of communication networks, detailed modeling of power and communication systems for dynamic studies of microgrids is rare. The work presented in this paper develops a framework for power and communication system co-simulation to study the impact of communications system on microgrid stability. An operational use case is examined where a battery energy storage system operates to offset the loss of generation in an islanded microgrid. The framework is evaluated for different communication technologies, network structures, and communication media.

Thekkumparambath Mana, Priya↗

DOE OSTI2024

Taming the terminological tempest in invasion science

ABSTRACT Standardised terminology in science is important for clarity of interpretation and communication. In invasion science – a dynamic and rapidly evolving discipline – the proliferation of technical terminology has lacked a standardised framework for its development. The result is a convoluted and inconsistent usage of terminology, with various discrepancies in descriptions of damage and interventions. A standardised framework is therefore needed for a clear, universally applicable, and consistent terminology to promote more effective communication across researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers. Inconsistencies in terminology stem from the exponential increase in scientific publications on the patterns and processes of biological invasions authored by experts from various disciplines and countries since the 1990s, as well as publications by legislators and policymakers focusing on practical applications, regulations, and management of resources. Aligning and standardising terminology across stakeholders remains a challenge in invasion science. Here, we review and evaluate the multiple terms used in invasion science (e.g. ‘non‐native’, ‘alien’, ‘invasive’ or ‘invader’, ‘exotic’, ‘non‐indigenous’, ‘naturalised’, ‘pest’) to propose a more simplified and standardised terminology. The streamlined framework we propose and translate into 28 other languages is based on the terms ( i ) ‘non‐native’, denoting species transported beyond their natural biogeographic range, ( ii ) ‘established non‐native’, i.e. those non‐native species that have established self‐sustaining populations in their new location(s) in the wild, and ( iii ) ‘invasive non‐native’ – populations of established non‐native species that have recently spread or are spreading rapidly in their invaded range actively or passively with or without human mediation. We also highlight the importance of conceptualising ‘spread’ for classifying invasiveness and ‘impact’ for management. Finally, we propose a protocol for classifying populations based on ( i ) dispersal mechanism, ( ii ) species origin, ( iii ) population status, and ( iv ) impact. Collectively and without introducing new terminology, the framework that we present aims to facilitate effective communication and collaboration in invasion science and management of non‐native species.

Soto, Ismael↗

DOE OSTI2026

A tissue‐resolved, network‐based transcriptomic framework for abiotic stress responses in sorghum

Developing climate‐resilient crops requires a detailed understanding of stress‐induced gene expression dynamics, as maladaptive responses can compromise their productivity and survival. Sorghum, a globally important cereal with exceptional tolerance to multiple abiotic stresses, provides a powerful system for investigating these dynamics. However, how stress type, tissue specificity, and temporal progression jointly shape transcriptomic responses in crops remains poorly understood. Here, we present a comparative, time‐resolved transcriptomic atlas of sorghum responses to drought, heat, and salinity stress across shoot and root tissues. Integrative analyses revealed that tissue specificity is the dominant determinant of abiotic stress‐induced gene reprogramming across all three stresses. Building on these global comparisons, we focused on heat stress, as it elicited the most coherent and pronounced transcriptional and regulatory responses, enabling deeper network‐level interrogation. Co‐expression network analysis identified tissue‐specific modules enriched for phytohormone‐responsive genes, while gene regulatory network (GRN) mapping and cistrome analyses uncovered transcription factors (TFs) controlling key hub genes within these modules. Together, this study provides a foundational transcriptomic and network‐based resource for dissecting the regulatory architecture of abiotic stress responses in sorghum and offers prioritized candidates for future functional validation and engineering of climate‐resilient crops.

abiotic stress↗

DOE OSTI2023

Plant Cell Biology International Meeting 2022

There is a strong need to develop the knowledge base that will enable the rational design of improved crop species for sustainable agriculture and biomass production. To attain this goal, researchers must learn how plant cells integrate metabolism and cellular dynamics during growth and in response to environmental challenges. Meeting these goals require data sharing and the development and training of faculty, post-doctoral fellows, graduate and undergraduate students in state-of-the-art quantitative integrative cell biology methods. The inaugural Plant Cell Biology International (PCBI) meeting capitalized on the interaction between two well-established plant cell biology communities across the Atlantic, the Midwest Plant Cell Dynamics (PCD) and the European Network for Plant Endomembrane Research (ENPER) and provided a framework to meet these goals. The conference took place in person successfully during August 1-5th 2022 in Crete, Greece. The conference offered opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, postdocs, young investigators across the globe to present their results and interact across different disciplines. The conference provided an open and inclusive forum for oral presentations that allowed all labs to share research results. It was attended over 80 % by students, postdocs and young investigators. Workshops on best practices for image acquisition and processing pipelines, publication guidelines by scientific journal editors, professional development and well-being benefited the participants at large. Overall, this was the inaugural joint Plant Cell Biology International conference that for the first time officially brought together plant cell biologists to discuss opportunities and challenges in the field to gain a mechanistic understanding of complex biological processes and advance sustainable agriculture. Due to its success, it was rescheduled for 2025 in Crete, to continue strengthening the plant cell biology community and exchanging knowledge and expertise across the globe.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Summary of Multiphysics Modeling for Sublimation Mass Transfer

This report summarizes the effort to develop a multiphysics modeling framework for sublimation mass transfer processes. The aim of the project was to develop a multiphysics code capable of predicting phase change between solid and gas in a closed container, and the movement of material within such a container when exposed to various exterior environmental conditions. Two modeling frameworks were developed towards this aim: one with a high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) structure, and the other as a fast reduced-order model. Ultimately, both attempts were unsuccessful due to instabilities in the code and physical processes for which there is no adequate numerical representation. Both modeling attempts are briefly detailed before providing a brief survey of recent updates in the literature, and a recommendation for future work on this subject.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project Strategic Energy Plan for Washington County, Maine

This Strategic Energy Plan (SEP) for Washington County, Maine was developed through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP) to address local challenges related to electricity reliability, affordability, and safety. Grounded in a "relational infrastructure" approach, the plan recognizes that improved energy outcomes depend not only on physical grid investments but also on strengthened coordination and trust between utilities and communities. Using utility-provided reliability data, public datasets, and community input, the plan identifies key risks, including vegetation-related outages, high energy burden, and vulnerability among elderly and medically dependent populations. The SEP establishes three priority areas: hazard mitigation for energy infrastructure, outage safety and emergency readiness, and energy assistance and thermal safety. It outlines community-driven actions designed to complement utility-led system improvements, including targeted outreach, municipal coordination, and expanded access to energy programs. The plan also situates local conditions within broader state policy, market dynamics, and funding opportunities. Intended as a living document, this SEP provides a scalable framework for collaborative action to improve resilience, safety, and affordability in rural energy systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1982

Nuclear constraints on the age of the universe

A review is made of how one can use nuclear physics to put rather stringent limits on the age of the universe and thus the cosmic distance scale. The age can be estimated to a fair degree of accuracy. No single measurement of the time since the Big Bang gives a specific, unambiguous age. There are several methods that together fix the age with surprising precision. In particular, there are three totally independent techniques for estimating an age and a fourth technique which involves finding consistency of the other three in the framework of the standard Big Bang cosmological model. The three independent methods are: cosmological dynamics, the age of the oldest stars, and radioactive dating. This paper concentrates on the third of the three methods, and the consistency technique.

Schramm, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Nuclear constraints on the age of the universe

Schramm, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Space Science in the Twenty-First Century: Imperatives for the Decades 1995 to 2015

A unified program is outlined for studying the Earth, from its deep interior to its fluid envelopes. A system is proposed for measuring devices involving both space-based and in-situ observations that can accommodate simultaneously a large range of scientific needs. The scientific objectices served by this integrated infrastructure are cased into a framework of four grand themes. In summary these are: to determine the composition, structure, dynamics, and evolution of the Earth's crust and deeper interior; to establish and understand the structure, dynamics, and chemistry of the oceans, atmosphere, and cryosphere, and their interaction with the solid Earth; to characterize the history and dynamics of living organisms and their interaction with the environment; and to monitor and understand the interaction of human activities with the natural environment. A focus on these grand themes will help to understand the origin and fate of the planet, and to place it in the context of the solar system.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1993

On the effects of cluster density and concentration on the horizontal branch morphology - The origin of the blue tails

Possible relationships between horizontal branch (HB) morphology in Galactic globular clusters and the cluster structure and dynamical evolution are investigated. New HB observables are defined and determined using a theoretical framework deduced from HB models. Data for 53 Galactic globular clusters are used to obtain correlations between the observables. It is found that the net length of the HB and the presence and extent of blue tails in particular are correlated with the cluster density and concentrations, in the sense of more concentrated or denser clusters having bluer and longer HB morphologies. This effect is especially strong for the intermediate metallicity clusters. Thus, the cluster environment can affect the stellar evolution leading to the HB and therefore the HB morphology. This result is interpreted in terms of an enhanced mass removal from the HB progenitors.

Fusi Pecci, F.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Bubble Generation in a Flowing Liquid Medium and Resulting Two-Phase Flow in Microgravity

The present investigation reports a study of bubble generation under reduced gravity conditions, using both a co-flow and a cross-flow configuration. This study may be used in the conceptual design of a space-based thermal management system. Ensuing two-phase flow void fraction can be accurately monitored using a single nozzle gas injection system within a continuous liquid flow conduit, as utilized in the present investigation. Accurate monitoring of void fraction leads to precise control of heat and mass transfer coefficients related to a thermal management system; hence providing an efficient and highly effective means of removing heat aboard spacecraft or space stations. Our experiments are performed in parabolic flight aboard the modified DC-9 Reduced Gravity Research Aircraft at NASA Lewis Research Center, using an air-water system. For the purpose of bubble dispersion in a flowing liquid, we use both a co-flow and a cross-flow configuration. In the co-flow geometry, air is introduced through a nozzle in the same direction with the liquid flow. On the other hand, in the cross-flow configuration, air is injected perpendicular to the direction of water flow, via a nozzle protruding inside the two-phase flow conduit. Three different flow conduit (pipe) diameters are used, namely, 1.27 cm, 1.9 cm and 2.54 cm. Two different ratios of nozzle to pipe diameter (D(sub N))sup * are considered, namely (D(sub N))sup * = 0.1 and 0.2, while superficial liquid velocities are varied from 8 to 70 cm/s depending on flow conduit diameter. It is experimentally observed that by holding all other flow conditions and geometry constant, generated bubbles decrease in size with increase in superficial liquid velocity. Detached bubble diameter is shown to increase with air injection nozzle diameter. Likewise, generated bubbles grow in size with increasing pipe diameter. Along the same lines, it is shown that bubble frequency of formation increases and hence the time to detachment of a forming bubble decreases, as the superficial liquid velocity is in-creased. Furthermore, it is shown that the void fraction of the resulting two-phase flow increases with volumetric gas flow rate Q(sub d), pipe diameter and gas injection nozzle diameter, while they decrease with surrounding liquid flow. The important role played by flowing liquid in detaching bubbles in a reduced gravity environment is thus emphasized. We observe that the void fraction can be accurately controlled by using single nozzle gas injection, rather than by employing multiple port injection, since the later system gives rise to unpredictable coalescence of adjacent bubbles. It is of interest to note that empirical bubble size and corresponding void fraction are somewhat smaller for the co-flow geometry than the cross-flow configuration at similar flow conditions with similar pipe and nozzle diameters. In order to supplement the empirical data, a theoretical model is employed to study single bubble generation in the dynamic (Q(sub d) = 1 - 1000 cu cm/s) and bubbly flow regime within the framework of the co-flow configuration. This theoretical model is based on an overall force balance acting on the bubble during the two stages of generation, namely the expansion and the detachment stage. Two sets of forces, one aiding and the other inhibiting bubble detachment are identified. Under conditions of reduced gravity, gas momentum flux enhances, while the surface tension force at the air injection nozzle tip inhibits bubble detachment. In parallel, liquid drag and inertia can act as both attaching and detaching forces, depending on the relative velocity of the bubble with respect to the surrounding liquid. Predictions of the theoretical model compare well with our experimental results. However, at higher superficial liquid velocities, as the bubble loses its spherical form, empirical bubble size no longer matches the theoretical predictions. In summary, we have developed a combined experimental and theoretical work, which describes the complex process of bubble generation and resulting two-phase flow in a microgravity environment. Results of the present study can be used in a wide range of space-based applications, such as thermal energy and power generation, propulsion, cryogenic storage and long duration life support systems, necessary for programs such as NASA's Human Exploration for the Development of Space (HEDS).

Pais, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Hierarchical Approach to Fracture Mechanics

Recent research conducted under NASA LaRC's Creativity and Innovation Program has led to the development of an initial approach for a hierarchical fracture mechanics. This methodology unites failure mechanisms occurring at different length scales and provides a framework for a physics-based theory of fracture. At the nanoscale, parametric molecular dynamic simulations are used to compute the energy associated with atomic level failure mechanisms. This information is used in a mesoscale percolation model of defect coalescence to obtain statistics of fracture paths and energies through Monte Carlo simulations. The mathematical structure of predicted crack paths is described using concepts of fractal geometry. The non-integer fractal dimension relates geometric and energy measures between meso- and macroscales. For illustration, a fractal-based continuum strain energy release rate is derived for inter- and transgranular fracture in polycrystalline metals.

Saether, Erik↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Advanced Orbiting Systems Approach to Quality of Service in Space-Based Intelligent Communication Networks

As humans and robotic technologies are deployed in future constellation systems, differing traffic services will arise, e.g., realtime and non-realtime. In order to provide a quality of service framework that would allow humans and robotic technologies to interoperate over a wide and dynamic range of interactions, a method of classifying data as realtime or non-realtime is needed. In our paper, we present an approach that leverages the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Advanced Orbiting Systems (AOS) data link protocol. Specifically, we redefine the AOS Transfer Frame Replay Flag in order to provide an automated store-and-forward approach on a per-service basis for use in the next-generation Interplanetary Network. In addition to addressing the problem of intermittent connectivity and associated services, we propose a follow-on methodology for prioritizing data through further modification of the AOS Transfer Frame.

Riha, Andrew P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Mission Simulation and Visualization for Real-Time Telemetry Display, Playback and EDL Event Reconstruction

he Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) Reconstruction Task has developed a software system that provides mission operations personnel and analysts with a real time telemetry-based live display, playback and post-EDL reconstruction capability that leverages the existing high-fidelity, physics-based simulation framework and modern game engine-derived 3D visualization system developed in the JPL Dynamics and Real Time Simulation (DARTS) Lab. Developed as a multi-mission solution, the EDL Telemetry Visualization (ETV) system has been used for a variety of projects including NASA's Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), NASA'S Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) and JPL's MoonRise Lunar sample return proposal.

Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) Reconstruction↗