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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

A Terrestrial Analogue from Spitsbergen (Svalbard, Norway) for the Comanche Carbonate at Gusev Crater, Mars

Carbonate occurs at the Comanche outcrops in Gusev Crater on the basis of analyses made by the Mars Exploration Rover Spirit [1]. Taken together, mineralogical data from Spirit's Moessbauer (MB) and Mini-TES spectrometer and chemical data from the APXS spectrometer show that Comanche carbonate has an Mg-Fe-rich bulk chemical composition, is present at high concentrations, and is distributed throughout the outcrop and not just at the MB and APXS analysis location. The granular outcrop texture and the observation that it appears to be resistant to weathering compared with surrounding material [1] imply that the carbonate may be present as a cement. A hydrothermal origin for the Comanche carbonate was inferred by analogy with laboratory experiments and with a carbonate occurrence within the Bockfjord volcanic complex on the island Spitsbergen (Svalbard, Norway) [1]. The laboratory carbonates, synthesized by precipitation from hydrothermal solutions, have (MB) parameters and average bulk chemical compositions that are characteristic of Comanche carbonate. The connection to Comanche carbonate is only through chemical data for certain occurrences of Spitsbergen carbonates. In fact, the common average bulk chemical composition for these Spitsbergen carbonates, the synthetic carbonates, the Comanche carbonate, and also the carbonate globules found in martian meteorite ALH84001 is a chemical constraint consistent with a hydrothermal formation process for all the carbonates [e.g., 1-3]. We develop here a link between MB data for the Comanche carbonate from MER and MB data for certain Spitsbergen carbonate occurrences from laboratory measurements. We also obtained visible and near- IR spectra on Spitsbergen carbonates for comparison with martian carbonate detections made on the basis of CRISM spectral data, e.g., in Nili Fossae [4].

Morris, Richard V.↗

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

A Composite Analysis of Snowfall Modes from Four Winter Seasons in Marquette, Michigan

Presented are four winter seasons of data from an enhanced precipitation instrument suite based at the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Marquette (MQT), Michigan (250–500 cm of annual snow accumulation). In 2014 the site was augmented with a Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and a Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP). MRR observations are utilized to partition large-scale synoptically driven (deep)and surface-forced (shallow) snow events. Coincident PIP and NWS MQT meteorological surface observations illustrate different characteristics with respect to snow event category. Shallow snow events are often extremely shallow, with MRR-indicated precipitation heights of less than 1500 m above ground level. Large vertical reflectivity gradients indicate efficient particle growth, and increased boundary layer turbulence inferred from observations of spectral width implies increased aggregation in shallow snow events. Shallow snow events occur 2 times as often as deep events; however, both categories contribute approximately equally to estimated annual accumulation. PIP measurements reveal distinct regime-dependent snow microphysical differences, with shallow snow events having broader particle size distributions and comparatively fewer small particles and deep snow events having narrower particle size distributions and comparatively more small particles. In addition, coincident surface meteorological measurements indicate that most shallow snow events are associated with surface winds originating from the northwest (over Lake Superior), cold temperatures, and relatively high surface pressures, which are characteristics that are consistent with cold-air outbreaks. Deep snow events have meteorologically distinct conditions that are accordant with midlatitude cyclones and frontal structures, with mostly southwest surface winds, warmer temperatures approaching freezing, and lower surface pressures.

Claire Pettersen↗

Sequential Kalman tuning of the t -preconditioned Crank-Nicolson algorithm: efficient, adaptive and gradient-free inference for Bayesian inverse problems

Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) has been proposed as an efficient method for the approximate solution of Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward models. However, when applied to the Bayesian inverse problem EKI is only exact in the regime of Gaussian target measures and linear forward models. Here, in this work we propose embedding EKI and Flow Annealed Kalman Inversion, its normalizing flow (NF) preconditioned variant, within a Bayesian annealing scheme as part of an adaptive implementation of the t-preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (tpCN) sampler. The tpCN sampler differs from standard pCN in that its proposal is reversible with respect to the multivariate t-distribution. The more flexible tail behaviour allows for better adaptation to sampling from non-Gaussian targets. Within our Sequential Kalman Tuning (SKT) adaptation scheme, EKI is used to initialize and precondition the tpCN sampler for each annealed target. The subsequent tpCN iterations ensure particles are correctly distributed according to each annealed target, avoiding the accumulation of errors that would otherwise impact EKI. We demonstrate the performance of SKT for tpCN on three challenging numerical benchmarks, showing significant improvements in the rate of convergence compared to adaptation within standard SMC with importance weighted resampling at each temperature level, and compared to similar adaptive implementations of standard pCN. The SKT scheme applied to tpCN offers an efficient, practical solution for solving the Bayesian inverse problem when gradients of the forward model are not available. Code implementing the SKT schemes for tpCN is available at https://github.com/RichardGrumitt/KalmanMC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ion Chromatography and Combustion Ion Chromatography Analysis of Fuel Cell Effluent Water During Open Circuit Voltage

Open circuit voltage tests were conducted on sixteen 3M Ionomer and eight Nafion™ NR211 membranes. Lifetime distributions were determined, and ion chromatography (IC) techniques were used to measure fluoride, sulfate, trifluoro acetate, and oxalate ions. Combustion Ion Chromatography (CIC) was used to determine the total organic fluoride (TOF) associated with water soluble membrane degradation fragments. The ratio of these products relative to the fluoride release rates were used to infer the likely degradation mechanism for each membrane. Peroxide attack at the sulfonic acid side chain was determined to be the least relevant reaction pathway while the long-proposed polymer chain end unzipping appears to be the dominant mechanism. Abstraction of the tertiary fluorine in the NR211 backbone and side chain is evident by organic fluoride release rates higher than can be explained by unzipping alone.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Robust Importance Sampling for Bayesian Model Calibration with Spatio-Temporal Data

This paper addresses two challenges in Bayesian calibration: 1) computational speed of existing sampling algorithms, and 2) calibration with spatio-temporal responses. The commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches require many sequential model evaluations making the computational expense prohibitive. This paper proposes an efficient sampling algorithm: iterative importance sampling with genetic algorithm (IISGA). While iterative importance sampling enables computational efficiency, the genetic algorithm enables robustness by preventing sample degeneration and avoids getting stuck in multimodal search spaces. An inflated likelihood further enables robustness in high-dimensional parameter spaces by enlarging the target distribution. Spatio-temporal data complicate both surrogate modeling, which is necessary for expensive computational models, and the likelihood estimation. In this work, singular value decomposition is investigated for reducing the high-dimensional field data to a lower-dimensional space prior to Bayesian calibration. Then the likelihood is formulated and Bayesian inference is performed in the lower-dimension, latent space. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate IISGA relative to existing sampling methods, and then IISGA is employed to calibrate a thermal battery model with 26 uncertain calibration parameters and spatio-temporal response data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effect of satellite potential on direct ion density measurements through the plasmapause

A simplified theory has been developed for calculating the effect of satellite potential on the ion current measured by an experiment such as an ion mass spectrometer or an ion trap. The theory is based on the use of a spherically symmetric Debye potential distribution in the sheath around the satellite and is particularly appropriate for use in regions where the Debye length is large, such as in the plasmasphere and magnetosphere. Ion data obtained from the ion trap on the Ogo 3 satellite during a pass through the plasmasphere show excellent agreement with the theory. The inferred ion densities from this analysis are as much as 1 order of magnitude different from what would be inferred from previous analyses.

Whipple, E. C.↗

A proposed origin of the Olympus Mons escarpment

Olympus Mons (Nix Olympica) on Mars is delimited by a unique steep, nearly circular scarp. A pyroclastic model is proposed for the construct's origin. It is postulated that the Olympus Mons plateau is constructed predominantly of numerous ash-flow tuffs which were erupted from central sources over an extended period of time. Lava flows may be intercalated with the tuffs. A schematic radial profile incorporating the inferred compaction zones for an ash sheet is proposed. Following emplacement, eolian (and possibly fluvial) erosion and abrasion during dust storms would act on the ash sheets. Interior portions of the sheets would spall and slump following eolian erosion, generating steep, relatively smooth boundary scarps. The scarp would be circular due to symmetrical distribution of compaction zones. The model implies further that the Olympus Mons plateau rests on a more resistant rock substrate.

King, J. S.↗

Peculiar ultraviolet interstellar extinction

In connection with investigations of the physical characteristics of interstellar dust, a study of objects with peculiar extinction might provide new insights about the composition, size distribution, formation, and destruction of the particulate matter. Meyer and Savage (1981) have found that the dust toward many stars exhibits peculiar UV extinction. The present investigation is concerned with International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spectrophotometric measurements for a sample of stars judged by Meyer and Savage to have highly anomalous UV extinction as inferred from the broad-band Astronomical Netherlands Satellite (ANS) data. The reported IUE measurements provide the opportunity to determine if the ANS photometry measurements of Meyer and Savage are anomalous because of peculiar extinction.

Massa, D.↗

Collisional records in LL-chondrites

One third of all the LL-chondrites have exposure ages of approx. 15 Ma and were exposed to cosmic rays following a collisional break-up. The probability that the 15-Ma peak represents a random signal is calculated to be less than 2%. Considerably lower probabilities are obtained if only LL5s or subgroups of high Ar-40 retention are used. Furthermore, we show that the peak shape agrees with statistical constraints obtained from multiple analyses of samples from the St. Severin LL6-chondrites. The frequency in and out of the 15-Ma peak varies significantly for different petrographic LL-types. The radiogenic Ar-40 retention systematics (most LL-chondrites retained Ar-40(sub rad) shows that no substantial heat pulse resulted in the 15-Ma collisional event. Interestingly, smaller exposure age clusters at approx. 28 Ma and approx. 40 Ma match up well with clusters in the histogram of L-chondrites. The distribution of LL-exposure ages is not consistent with that expected for a quasi-continuous injection of LL material into a resonance zone of the asteroid belt. The near absence of exposure ages shorter than 8 Ma either indicates a lack of recent collisional events or considerably longer transfer times than inferred from dynamical considerations.

Graf, Thomas↗

Bias and high-order galaxy correlation functions in the APM galaxy survey

On large scales, the higher order moments of the mass distribution, S(sub J) = bar-zeta(sub J)/bar-zeta(sup J-1)(sub 2), e.g., the skewness S(sub 3) and kurtosis S(sub 4), can be predicted using nonlinear perturbation theory. Comparison of these predictions with moments of the observed galaxy distribution probes the bias between galaxies and mass. Applying this method to models with initially Gaussian fluctuations and power spectra P(k) similar to that of galaxies in the Automatic Plate Measuring (APM) survey, we find that the predicted higher order moments S(sub J)(R) are in good agreement with those directly inferred from the APM survey in the absence of bias. We use this result to place limits on the linear and nonlinear bias parameters. Models in which the extra power observed on large scales (with respect to the standard cold dark matter (CDM) model) is produced by scale-dependent bias match the APM higher order amplitudes only if nonlinear bias (rather than nonlinear gravity) generates the observed higher order moments. When normalized to Cosmic Background Explorer Differential Microwave Radiometer (COBE DMR), these models are siginificantly ruled out by the S(sub 3) observations. The cold plus hot dark matter model normalized to COBE can reproduce the APM higher order correlations if one introduces nonlinear bias terms, while the low-density CDM model with a cosmological constant does not require any bias to fit the large-scale amplitudes.

Gaztanaga, Enrique↗

The NANOGrav Nine-Year Data Set: Limits on the Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. Well-tested Bayesian techniques are used to set upper limits on the dimensionless strain amplitude (at a frequency of 1 yr(exp -1) for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries of A(sub gw) less than 1.5 x 10(exp -15). We also parameterize the GWB spectrum with a broken power-law model by placing priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana and McWilliams et al. Using Bayesian model selection we find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 2.2 and 22 to one for the Sesana and McWilliams prior models, respectively. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. Returning to a power-law model, we place stringent limits on the energy density of relic GWs, OMEGA(sub gw) (f) h squared less than 4.2 x 10(exp -10). Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, OMEGA(sub gw) (f) h squared less than 2.2 x 10(exp -10), translates to a conservative limit on the cosmic string tension with G mu less than 3.3 x 10(exp -8), a factor of four better than the joint Planck and high-l‚ cosmic microwave background data from other experiments.

Arzoumanian, Z.↗

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of the subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography and ultrasound. The concept of the conflation of probability distributions is applied to combine the posterior distributions derived from thermography and ultrasound and the quality of the fused estimates are compared against the individual estimates against synthetic data that was created to mimic the inspection of a lap joint comprised of aluminum adherends.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗

Horizontal Temperature Variability in the Stratosphere: Global Variations Inferred from CRISTA Data

In two separate orbital campaigns (November, 1994 and August, 1997), the Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere (CRISTA) instrument acquired global stratospheric data of high accuracy and high spatial resolution. The standard limb-scanned CRISTA measurements resolved atmospheric spatial structures with vertical dimensions greater than or equal to 1.5 - 2 km and horizontal dimensions is greater than or equal to 100 - 200 km. A fluctuation analysis of horizontal temperature distributions derived from these data is presented. This method is somewhat complementary to conventional power-spectral analysis techniques.

FLUCTUATION ANALYSIS↗

Simultaneous inference of plate boundary stresses and mantle rheology using adjoints: large-scale 2-D models

SUMMARY Plate motions are a primary surface constraint on plate and mantle dynamics and rheology, plate boundary stresses and the occurrence of great earthquakes. Within an optimization method, we use plate motion data to better constrain uncertain mantle parameters. For the optimization problem characterizing the maximum a posteriori rheological parameters we derive gradients using adjoints and expressions to approximate the posterior distributions for stresses within plate boundaries. We apply these methods to a 2-D cross section from the western to eastern Pacific, with temperature distributions and fault zone geometries developed primarily from seismic and plate motion data. We find that the best-fitting stress exponent, n, is about 2.8 and the yield stress about 100 MPa or less. The normal stress on the interplate fault zones is about 100 MPa and the shear stresses about 10 MPa or less.

Rudi, Johann (ORCID:0000000265639265)↗

Inference of Rock Flow and Mechanical Properties from Injection-Induced Microseismic Events During Geologic CO 2 Storage

Monitoring microseismic activities during CO 2 injection into geologic formations is important for ensuring the safety of the storage operations. The resulting data provide insight into the response of the storage formation to CO 2 injection and can be used to infer the underlying rock flow and mechanical properties. In this paper, assimilation of microseismic data is performed for dynamic characterization of the storage formation by using a stochastic simulation model to forecast the microseismic response of a geologic formation during CO 2 injection. Two modeling approaches are adopted to predict the space-time distribution of the injection-induced microseismicity. The first model is based on pore pressure relaxation assumption, while the second model uses coupled flow and geomechanics simulation to establish the complex physical relation between the storage formation properties and the corresponding microseismic responses during CO 2 injection. The stochastic predictive models in each case are used in ensemble data assimilation frameworks to estimate rock properties from the observed microseismic data. Two data assimilation methods are considered: (i) a new ensemble-based stochastic point process filter (EnPPF) that can directly integrate discrete microseismic events, and (ii) a variant of ensemble smoother, known as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), which requires continuous representation of microseismic events for assimilation. The two methods are successfully applied to a geologically realistic model of the Farnsworth Field in Texas, with complex geologic flow units and interacting fault systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

AWB-GCN: A Graph Convolutional Network Accelerator with Runtime Workload Rebalancing

The recent development of deep learning has been mostly focusing on Euclidean data, such as images, videos, audios, etc. However, most real-world information and relation are often expressed as graphs. To efficiently learn from graph data, graph convolutional networks (GCNs) emerge as a promising approach, showing advantages in several practical applications such as social network analysis, knowledge discovery, 3D modeling, motion capturing, etc. Real-world graphs are usually extremely large and imbalanced, posting significant performance demand and design challenges on the hardware dedicated for GCN inference. In this paper, we propose an architecture design called UW-GCN to accelerate graph convolutional network inference. To tackle the major performance bottleneck from workload imbalance, we propose dynamic neighborhood stealing and remote chunk shuffling techniques, relying on hardware flexibility to achieve hardware auto-tuning under negligible area or delay overhead. Specifically, UW-GCN is able to smartly profile the sparse graph pattern while continuously adjusting the workload distribution via routing reconfiguration among parallel processing elements (PEs). The ideal configuration is then reused in the remaining iterations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first accelerator design particularly for GCN and the first work relying on hardware auto-tuning, which is normally based on software, to achieve near-optimal workload balance in processing sparse structures.

Geng, Tong↗

Disintegration of Long-period Comet C/2019 Y4 (ATLAS). I. Hubble Space Telescope Observations

The near-Sun comet C/2019 Y4 (ATLAS) is the first member of a long-period comet group observed to disintegrate well before perihelion. Here we present our investigation into this disintegration event using images obtained in a three-day Hubble Space Telescope campaign. We identify two fragment clusters produced by the initial disintegration event, corresponding to fragments C/2019 Y4-A and C/2019 Y4-B identified in ground-based data. These two clusters started with similar integrated brightness but exhibit different evolutionary behavior. C/2019 Y4-A was much shorter-lived compared to C/2019 Y4-B and showed signs of significant mass loss and changes in size distribution throughout the three-day campaign. The cause of the initial fragmentation is undetermined by the limited evidence but crudely compatible with either the spin-up disruption of the nucleus or runaway sublimation of subsurface supervolatile ices, either of which would lead to the release of a large amount of gas as inferred from the significant bluing of the comet observed shortly before its disintegration. Gas can only be produced by the sublimation of volatile ices, which must have survived at least one perihelion passage at a perihelion distance of q = 0.25 au. We speculate that Comet ATLAS is derived from the ice-rich interior of a nonuniform, kilometer-wide progenitor that split during its previous perihelion. This suggests that comets down to a few kilometers in diameter can still possess complex, nonuniform interiors that can protect ices against intense solar heating.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗