Results for “design methodology” — Page 82

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep-Learning-derived Boundary Layer Height from Meteorological Data over the SGP, GOAMAZON, CACTI

The planetary boundary-layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is an important parameter for various meteorological and climate studies. This study presents a multi-structure deep neural network (DNN) model, designed to estimate PBLH by integrating morning temperature profiles with surface meteorological observations. The DNN model is developed by leveraging a rich data set of PBLH derived from long-standing radiosonde records and augmented with high-resolution micropulse lidar and Doppler lidar observations. We access the performance of the DNN with an ensemble of 10 members, each featuring distinct hidden layer structures, which collectively yield a robust 27-year PBLH data set over the Southern Great Plains from 1994 to 2020. The influence of various meteorological factors on PBLH is rigorously analyzed through the importance test. Moreover, the DNN model's accuracy is evaluated against radiosonde observations and juxtaposed with conventional remote-sensing methodologies, including Doppler lidar, ceilometer, Raman lidar, and micropulse lidar. The DNN model exhibits reliable performance across diverse conditions and demonstrates lower biases relative to remote-sensing methods. In addition, the DNN model, originally trained over a plain region, demonstrates remarkable adaptability when applied to the heterogeneous terrains and climates encountered during the GoAmazon (tropical rainforest) and CACTI (middle-latitude mountain) campaigns. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of deep learning models in estimating PBLH, enhancing our understanding of boundary-layer dynamics with implications for enhancing the representation of PBL in weather forecasting and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Human Behavior and Decision Errors in Security Screening Operations

The potential for human errors in conducting security related screening operations can lead to inadvertent and adverse decision outcomes. This paper overviews an initial mathematical framework designed to model and quantify the various human factors and decision outcomes that may occur in conducting security screening operations, such as U.S. port of entry radiological and nuclear (rad/nuc) security screening. This framework is based on the Human Error Assessment and Reduction (HEART) technique. As applied here, the framework incorporates a set of rules for human engagement, including a prescribed concept of operations (CONOPS) and deviations that may occur from this established CONOPS due to inadvertent personnel decision errors. We also review some of the various factors that may adversely influence such decisions by security screening personnel. Some of these factors include current workload, environmental conditions, training, and various other intangible factors. Using the HEART methodology, we translate each of these factors into error producing conditions, their effects on error, an assessed proportion of effects, and finally the overall probability of human error at each stage of the screening process. We then include a small scale example to demonstrate the methodology and results based on an assumed set of input conditions at a notional port of entry.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: $w$CDM cosmology from simulation-based inference with persistent homology on the sphere

We present cosmological constraints from Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing data using persistent homology, a topological data analysis technique that tracks how features like clusters and voids evolve across density thresholds. For the first time, we apply spherical persistent homology to galaxy survey data through the algorithm TopoS2, which is optimized for curved-sky analyses and HEALPix compatibility. Employing a simulation-based inference framework with the Gower Street simulation suite, specifically designed to mimic DES Y3 data properties, we extract topological summary statistics from convergence maps across multiple smoothing scales and redshift bins. After neural network compression of these statistics, we estimate the likelihood function and validate our analysis against baryonic feedback effects, finding minimal biases (under $0.3σ$) in the $Ω_\mathrm{m}-S_8$ plane. Assuming the $w$CDM model, our combined Betti numbers and second moments analysis yields $S_8 = 0.821 \pm 0.018$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.304\pm0.037$-constraints 70% tighter than those from cosmic shear two-point statistics in the same parameter plane. Our results demonstrate that topological methods provide a powerful and robust framework for extracting cosmological information, with our spherical methodology readily applicable to upcoming Stage IV wide-field galaxy surveys.

Prat, J. [Nordita; Royal Inst. Tech., Sodertalje; ↗

DOE OSTI2021

HED Hydrodynamics in the Common Modeling Framework

Within the Common Modeling Framework (CMF), the HED Hydrodynamics Project has implemented a common methodology, or "Authority", for modeling high energy density (HED) experiments by extending development of the Eulerian Applications Project code Authority, "EAPA," to include relevant physics models, customization tools and templates, and in situ and post-processing capabilities. Additionally, several models for small-scale HED experiments were successfully added to the CMF and simulations reproduce the results of preexisting, benchmarked input decks. We expect use of the CMF to improve our effectiveness in developing predictive capabilities for experiments ranging from small-scale planar single-interface, single-shock to multi-interface, multi-shock configurations and up through multi-shell inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. Additionally, this will strengthen our ability to design future targeted experiments. Using the CMF infrastructure and Authorities for HED modeling has three key impacts. First, it enables a version-controlled, pedigreed and archived base model for each experiment with tools that allow easy setup, execution and analysis of simulations to assess and/or expose sensitivities to various parameters. Second, having a common base set of inputs and physics definitions helps identify systematic differences between models in the codes and experimental data to support code validation, and build confidence in our predictive capabilities. Finally, designed to work in concert with multiple programs and projects including PEM, IC, OES, V&V and DSW, the CMF supports improved collaboration and integration through shared model definitions, data, simulations and results, enhancing the workflow required to underwrite the knowledge base and capabilities ultimately required for stockpile stewardship

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Rapid Evaluation and Response to Impacts on Critical End-Use Loads Following Natural Hazard-Driven Power Outages: A Modular and Responsive Geospatial Technology

The disparate nature of data for electric power utilities complicates the emergency recovery and response process. The reduced efficiency of response to natural hazards and disasters can extend the time that electrical service is not available for critical end-use loads, and in extreme events, leave the public without power for extended periods. This article presents a methodology for the development of a semantic data model for power systems and the integration of electrical grid topology, population, and electric distribution line reliability indices into a unified, cloud-based, serverless framework that supports power system operations in response to extreme events. An iterative and pragmatic approach to working with large and disparate datasets of different formats and types resulted in improved application runtime and efficiency, which is important to consider in real time decision-making processes during hurricanes and similar catastrophic events. This technology was developed initially for Puerto Rico, following extreme hurricane and earthquake events in 2017 and 2020, but is applicable to utilities around the world. Given the highly abstract and modular design approach, this technology is equally applicable to any geographic region and similar natural hazard events. In addition to a review of the requirements, development, and deployment of this framework, technical aspects related to application performance and response time are highlighted.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Conductivity and Transference Trade-Off in Polymer Electrolytes Using a Robeson-Inspired Upper Bound

The development of high-performance electrolytes is crucial for advancing next-generation lithium and sodium battery technologies. Since the cation is the working ion in both technologies, electrolytes exhibiting the rapid cation transport are essential for making progress. Pathways to optimize electrolytes are unclear due to the inherent trade-off between conductivity and cation transference. While this trade-off is sometimes recognized, there are no well-accepted methodologies for quantifying it. Inspired by the Robeson upper bound for the permeability–selectivity trade-off in gas separation membranes, we propose an approach for quantifying the trade-off in electrolytes using Newman’s concentrated solution theory. We suggest calling this the Newman upper bound. By analyzing published data from 30 polymer electrolytes containing univalent lithium and sodium salts, the Newman upper bound is expressed as κ = 2.0(1/ρ+ – 1) where κ (mS/cm) is conductivity and ρ+ is the current fraction measured in a symmetric cell as first described by Bruce et al. [J. Electroanal. Chem. Interfacial Electrochem. 1987, 225 (1), 1–17]. This formulation of the upper bound introduces a critical guiding metric for designing next-generation polymer electrolytes; it highlights factors underlying the trade-off, including the salt diffusion coefficient (D), cation transference number relative to solvent velocity ( t + 0 ), and thermodynamic factor (1 + (d lnγ+–)/(d lnm)), where γ+– is the mean molar activity coefficient and m is the molality. These parameters have been measured for very few electrolytes. We posit that establishing the molecular properties that govern these parameters will lead to improved electrolytes that greatly exceed the current upper bound.

He, Zirong↗

DOE OSTI2023

baseflow: a MATLAB and GNU Octave package for baseflow recession analysis

baseflow is a MATLAB® toolbox designed for baseflow recession analysis, a technique used in hydrologic science to infer aquifer properties from streamflow. By leveraging widely available streamflow data, baseflow can be used to estimate aquifer properties such as hydraulic conductivity and drainable porosity over the modern instrumental stream gage record. The toolbox is intended for analysis of measured streamflow values recorded on a daily timestep, and is tailored for shallow, unconfined riparian aquifers that discharge groundwater laterally into adjacent streams. Additionally, baseflow can analyze the collective behavior of individual hillslope aquifers constituting hydrologic catchments, known as “watersheds”, from a nonlinear dynamical systems perspective. The toolbox incorporates recent advances in baseflow recession analysis to enable objective estimations of aquifer properties, and their sensitivity to methodological decisions, at both hillslope and catchment scales.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A User-Centered Design Exploration of Factors That Influence the Rideshare Experience

The rise of real-time information communication through smartphones and wireless networks enabled the growth of ridesharing services. While personal rideshare services (individuals riding alone or with acquaintances) initially dominated the market, the popularity of pooled ridesharing (individuals sharing rides with people they do not know) has grown globally. However, pooled ridesharing remains less common in the U.S., where personal vehicle usage is still the norm. Vehicle design and rideshare services may need to be tailored to user preferences to increase pooled rideshare adoption. Based on a large, national U.S. survey (N = 5385), the results of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses suggested that four key factors influence riders’ willingness to consider pooled ridesharing: comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety. A binomial logistic regression was conducted to determine how the four factors influence one’s willingness to consider pooled ridesharing. The two factors that positively influence riders’ willingness to consider pooled ridesharing are vehicle technology/accessibility (B = 1.10) and convenience (B = 0.94), while lack of passenger safety (B = –0.63) and comfort/ease of use (B = –0.17) are pooled ridesharing deterrents. Understanding user-centered design and service factors are critical to increase the use of pooled ridesharing services in the future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Independent Review of the Proof-of-Concept Cyber100 Compass Cybersecurity Risk Tool

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER), and Office of Electricity (OE) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop a method and tool to enable electric utilities to understand and manage the risk of cybersecurity events that can lead to physical effects like blackouts. This tool, called Cyber100 Compass, uses cybersecurity data elicited from cybersecurity experts, then incorporates that data into a tool designed to be usable by cybersecurity non-experts who understand the system itself. The tool estimates dollar-valued risks for a current or postulated future electric power digital control configuration, in order to enable utility risk planners to prioritize among proposed cybersecurity risk mitigation options. With the development of the Cyber100 Compass tool for quantification of future cyber-physical security risks, NREL has taken an initial bold step in the direction of enabling and indeed encouraging electric utilities to address the potential for cybersecurity incidents to produce detrimental physical effects related to electric power delivery. As part of the Cyber100 Compass development process, DOE funded NREL to seek out an independent technical review of the risk methodology embodied in the tool. NREL requested this review from Sandia National Laboratories, and made available to Sandia a very late version of the project report, as well as NREL personnel to provide clarification and to respond to questions. This paper provides the result of the independent review activity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Accurate Prediction of pKb in Amines: Validation of the CAM-B3LYP/6-311+G(d,p)/SMD Model

Amines play several key roles in chemistry and biology and are involved in numerous industrial processes, often with significant economic impacts. Recently, amines are also garnering interest as catalysts for polymer synthesis and for CO 2 fixation, incentivizing the need to rapidly design and screen new amino compounds. Hence, developing reliable methods to predict their physicochemical properties, e.g., the base dissociation constant (pKb), is pivotal. Here, a density functional theory (DFT)-based approach was employed to compute the pKb of substituted amines, exploring the impact of several key parameters, including (i) the number of explicit water molecules at the reaction center, (ii) the van der Waals (vdW) surface, and (iii) solvent polarizability. In previous work, it was determined that including two explicit water molecules at the reaction center resulted in highly accurate pKb estimates for primary amines. Here, we find that including a third water molecule at the reaction center is essential for accurate pKb for secondary and tertiary amines. The revised methodology was then applied to a wider selection of amines, obtaining a minimum average error (MAE) < 0.4. In conclusion, this result represents an extension of our “easy-to-use method,” a simple and direct DFT approach exploiting CAM-B3LYP/SMD/6-311G+(d,p) to compute pKb without post facto modifications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

2022 National Household Travel Survey - Oahu Add-On

# 2022 National Household Travel Survey – Oahu Add-On The Oahu add-on survey supplements the 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) with additional household samples and detailed travel behavior for an assigned travel day. ## Data Collection Agency The Federal Highway Administration conducted the NHTS and corresponding add-on surveys. ## Survey Methodology The 2022 NHTS, which covered assigned travel dates from January 2022 to January 2023, collected data on the demographic and socioeconomic composition of households as well as detailed information on travel behavior nationwide. State transportation departments and metropolitan planning agencies—like the Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization—had the opportunity to purchase extra household samples as part of the NHTS add-on program. These additional samples, along with national samples collected in the add-on areas, are compiled for use in transportation planning, forecasting, and research. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include 7,397 participants from 3,170 households in Oahu, Hawaii, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 14,868 trips totaling 165,000 vehicle miles traveled.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

2022 National Household Travel Survey - Oahu Add-On

# 2022 National Household Travel Survey – Oahu Add-On The Oahu add-on survey supplements the 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) with additional household samples and detailed travel behavior for an assigned travel day. ## Data Collection Agency The Federal Highway Administration conducted the NHTS and corresponding add-on surveys. ## Survey Methodology The 2022 NHTS, which covered assigned travel dates from January 2022 to January 2023, collected data on the demographic and socioeconomic composition of households as well as detailed information on travel behavior nationwide. State transportation departments and metropolitan planning agencies—like the Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization—had the opportunity to purchase extra household samples as part of the NHTS add-on program. These additional samples, along with national samples collected in the add-on areas, are compiled for use in transportation planning, forecasting, and research. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include 7,397 participants from 3,170 households in Oahu, Hawaii, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 14,868 trips totaling 165,000 vehicle miles traveled.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

2022 National Household Travel Survey - Oahu Add-On

# 2022 National Household Travel Survey – Oahu Add-On The Oahu add-on survey supplements the 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) with additional household samples and detailed travel behavior for an assigned travel day. ## Data Collection Agency The Federal Highway Administration conducted the NHTS and corresponding add-on surveys. ## Survey Methodology The 2022 NHTS, which covered assigned travel dates from January 2022 to January 2023, collected data on the demographic and socioeconomic composition of households as well as detailed information on travel behavior nationwide. State transportation departments and metropolitan planning agencies—like the Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization—had the opportunity to purchase extra household samples as part of the NHTS add-on program. These additional samples, along with national samples collected in the add-on areas, are compiled for use in transportation planning, forecasting, and research. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include 7,397 participants from 3,170 households in Oahu, Hawaii, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 14,868 trips totaling 165,000 vehicle miles traveled.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

2022 National Household Travel Survey - Oahu Add-On

# 2022 National Household Travel Survey – Oahu Add-On The Oahu add-on survey supplements the 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) with additional household samples and detailed travel behavior for an assigned travel day. ## Data Collection Agency The Federal Highway Administration conducted the NHTS and corresponding add-on surveys. ## Survey Methodology The 2022 NHTS, which covered assigned travel dates from January 2022 to January 2023, collected data on the demographic and socioeconomic composition of households as well as detailed information on travel behavior nationwide. State transportation departments and metropolitan planning agencies—like the Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization—had the opportunity to purchase extra household samples as part of the NHTS add-on program. These additional samples, along with national samples collected in the add-on areas, are compiled for use in transportation planning, forecasting, and research. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include 7,397 participants from 3,170 households in Oahu, Hawaii, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 14,868 trips totaling 165,000 vehicle miles traveled.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

2022 National Household Travel Survey - Oahu Add-On

# 2022 National Household Travel Survey – Oahu Add-On The Oahu add-on survey supplements the 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) with additional household samples and detailed travel behavior for an assigned travel day. ## Data Collection Agency The Federal Highway Administration conducted the NHTS and corresponding add-on surveys. ## Survey Methodology The 2022 NHTS, which covered assigned travel dates from January 2022 to January 2023, collected data on the demographic and socioeconomic composition of households as well as detailed information on travel behavior nationwide. State transportation departments and metropolitan planning agencies—like the Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization—had the opportunity to purchase extra household samples as part of the NHTS add-on program. These additional samples, along with national samples collected in the add-on areas, are compiled for use in transportation planning, forecasting, and research. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include 7,397 participants from 3,170 households in Oahu, Hawaii, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 14,868 trips totaling 165,000 vehicle miles traveled.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

2022 National Household Travel Survey - Oahu Add-On

# 2022 National Household Travel Survey – Oahu Add-On The Oahu add-on survey supplements the 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) with additional household samples and detailed travel behavior for an assigned travel day. ## Data Collection Agency The Federal Highway Administration conducted the NHTS and corresponding add-on surveys. ## Survey Methodology The 2022 NHTS, which covered assigned travel dates from January 2022 to January 2023, collected data on the demographic and socioeconomic composition of households as well as detailed information on travel behavior nationwide. State transportation departments and metropolitan planning agencies—like the Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization—had the opportunity to purchase extra household samples as part of the NHTS add-on program. These additional samples, along with national samples collected in the add-on areas, are compiled for use in transportation planning, forecasting, and research. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include 7,397 participants from 3,170 households in Oahu, Hawaii, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 14,868 trips totaling 165,000 vehicle miles traveled.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

2022 National Household Travel Survey - Oahu Add-On

# 2022 National Household Travel Survey – Oahu Add-On The Oahu add-on survey supplements the 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) with additional household samples and detailed travel behavior for an assigned travel day. ## Data Collection Agency The Federal Highway Administration conducted the NHTS and corresponding add-on surveys. ## Survey Methodology The 2022 NHTS, which covered assigned travel dates from January 2022 to January 2023, collected data on the demographic and socioeconomic composition of households as well as detailed information on travel behavior nationwide. State transportation departments and metropolitan planning agencies—like the Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization—had the opportunity to purchase extra household samples as part of the NHTS add-on program. These additional samples, along with national samples collected in the add-on areas, are compiled for use in transportation planning, forecasting, and research. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include 7,397 participants from 3,170 households in Oahu, Hawaii, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 14,868 trips totaling 165,000 vehicle miles traveled.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗