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Learning functional priors and posteriors from data and physics

In this work, we develop a new Bayesian framework based on deep neural networks to be able to extrapolate in space-time using historical data and to quantify uncertainties arising from both noisy and gappy data in physical problems. Specifically, the proposed approach has two stages: (1) prior learning and (2) posterior estimation. At the first stage, we employ the physics-informed Generative Adversarial Networks (PI-GAN) to learn a functional prior either from a prescribed function distribution, e.g., Gaussian process, or from historical data and physics. At the second stage, we employ the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate the posterior in the latent space of PI-GANs. In addition, we use two different approaches to encode the physics: (1) automatic differentiation, used in the physicsinformed neural networks (PINNs) for scenarios with explicitly known partial differential equations (PDEs), and (2) operator regression using the deep operator network (DeepONet) for PDE-agnostic scenarios. We then test the proposed method for (1) meta-learning for one-dimensional regression, and forward/inverse PDE problems (combined with PINNs); (2) PDE-agnostic physical problems (combined with DeepONet), e.g., fractional diffusion as well as saturated stochastic (100-dimensional) flows in heterogeneous porous media; and (3) spatial-temporal regression problems, i.e., inference of a marine riser displacement field using experimental data from the Norwegian Deepwater Programme (NDP). The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide accurate predictions as well as uncertainty quantification given very limited scattered and noisy data, since historical data could be available to provide informative priors. In summary, the proposed method is capable of learning flexible functional priors, e.g., both Gaussian and non-Gaussian process, and can be readily extended to big data problems by enabling mini-batch training using stochastic HMC or normalizing flows since the latent space is generally characterized as low dimensional.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Evaluating the performance of random forest and iterative random forest based methods when applied to gene expression data

Gene-to-gene networks, such as Gene Regulatory Networks (GRN) and Predictive Expression Networks (PEN) capture relationships between genes and are beneficial for use in downstream biological analyses. There exists multiple network inference tools to produce these gene-to-gene networks from matrices of gene expression data. Random Forest-Leave One Out Prediction (RF-LOOP) is a method that has been shown to be efficient at producing these gene-to-gene networks, frequently known as GEne Network Inference with Ensemble of trees (GENIE3). Random Forest can be replaced in this process by iterative Random Forest (iRF), which performs variable selection and boosting. Here we validate that iterative Random Forest-Leave One Out Prediction (iRF-LOOP) produces higher quality networks than GENIE3 (RF-LOOP). We use both synthetic and empirical networks from the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM) Challenges by Sage Bionetworks, as well as two additional empirical networks created from Arabidopsis thaliana and Populus trichocarpa expression data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reconsidering astrophysical constraints on macroscopic dark matter

Macroscopic dark matter—“macros”—refers to a broad class of alternative candidates to particle dark matter with still unprobed regions of parameter space. These candidates would transfer energy primarily through elastic scattering with approximately their geometric cross section. For sufficiently large cross sections, the linear energy deposition could produce observable signals if a macro were to pass through compact objects such as white dwarfs or neutron stars in the form of thermonuclear runaway, leading to a type Ia supernova or superburst, respectively. Here, we update the constraints from white dwarfs. These are weaker than previously inferred in important respects because of more careful treatment of the passage of a macro through the white dwarf and greater conservatism regarding the size of the region that must be heated to initiate runaway. On the other hand, we place more stringent constraints on macros at a low cross section, using new data from the Montreal White Dwarf Database. New constraints are inferred from the low mass x-ray binary 4U 1820-30, in which more than a decade passed between successive superbursts. Updated microlensing constraints are also reported.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

The study of mesoscale ocean winds

SAR data gathered over the U.S. East Coast are used to infer near-surface wind speed, using a simplified model to relate the strength of the 30 to 40 cm SAR backscatter to surface wind speed. It is found that the SAR backscatter is nearly isotropic with a wind speed exponent of 0.4. Using this exponent, the model is tested against an independent data set. Subsequent agreement between wind speeds simultaneously determined by SAR and the Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS) is within 0.7 m/s rms. A one-dimensional Fourier transform of the SAR-derived wind field shows an increasing energy content in rough agreement with the Van der Hoven spectrum.

Jones, W. L.↗

A Search of the Full Six Years of the Dark Energy Survey for Outer Solar System Objects

We present a search for outer solar system objects in the 6 yr of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The DES covered a contiguous 5000 deg 2 of the southern sky with ≈80,000 3 deg 2 exposures in the grizY filters between 2013 and 2019. This search yielded 812 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), one Centaur and one Oort cloud comet, 458 reported here for the first time. We present methodology that builds upon our previous search on the first 4 yr of data. All images were reprocessed with an optimized detection pipeline that leads to an average completeness gain of 0.47 mag per exposure, as well as improved transient catalog production and algorithms for linkage of detections into orbits. All objects were verified by visual inspection and by the “sub-threshold significance,” the signal-to-noise ratio in the stack of images in which its presence is indicated by the orbit, but no detection was reported. This yields a pure catalog complete to r ≈ 23.8 mag and distances 29 < d < 2500 au. The TNOs have minimum (median) of 7 (12) nights’ detections and arcs of 1.1 (4.2) yr, and will have grizY magnitudes available in a further publication. We present software for simulating our observational biases for comparisons of models to our detections. Initial inferences demonstrating the catalog’s statistical power are: the data are inconsistent with the CFEPS-L7 model for the classical Kuiper Belt; the 16 “extreme” TNOs (a > 150 au, q > 30 au) are consistent with the null hypothesis of azimuthal isotropy; and nonresonant TNOs with q > 38 au, a > 50 au show a significant tendency to be sunward of major mean-motion resonances.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Bayesian Approach to the Joint Inversion of Gravity and Magnetic Data, with Application to the Ismenius Area of Mars

This viewgraph presentation reviews a Bayesian approach to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data with specific application to the Ismenius Area of Mars. Many inverse problems encountered in geophysics and planetary science are well known to be non-unique (i.e. inversion of gravity the density structure of a body). In hopes of reducing the non-uniqueness of solutions, there has been interest in the joint analysis of data. An example is the joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data, with the assumption that the same physical anomalies generate both the observed magnetic and gravitational anomalies. In this talk, we formulate the joint analysis of different types of data in a Bayesian framework and apply the formalism to the inference of the density and remanent magnetization structure for a local region in the Ismenius area of Mars. The Bayesian approach allows prior information or constraints in the solutions to be incorporated in the inversion, with the "best" solutions those whose forward predictions most closely match the data while remaining consistent with assumed constraints. The application of this framework to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data on Mars reveals two typical challenges - the forward predictions of the data have a linear dependence on some of the quantities of interest, and non-linear dependence on others (termed the "linear" and "non-linear" variables, respectively). For observations with Gaussian noise, a Bayesian approach to inversion for "linear" variables reduces to a linear filtering problem, with an explicitly computable "error" matrix. However, for models whose forward predictions have non-linear dependencies, inference is no longer given by such a simple linear problem, and moreover, the uncertainty in the solution is no longer completely specified by a computable "error matrix". It is therefore important to develop methods for sampling from the full Bayesian posterior to provide a complete and statistically consistent picture of model uncertainty, and what has been learned from observations. We will discuss advanced numerical techniques, including Monte Carlo Markov

data analysis↗

S-band transponder experiment

The purpose of this experiment was to measure the variations in the lunar gravitational field near the trajectory of orbiting space vehicles (the command and service module (CSM) and the small particles and fields subsatellites ejected from the Apollo 15 and 16 spacecraft). New information has been obtained from all Apollo orbiting spacecraft; however, this report shall be limited to the results from the Apollo 17 CSM and the Apollo 16 subsatellite. The data acquired are precise speed measurements of the orbiting spacecraft from which accelerations or gravity profiles may be inferred. Feature resolution is controlled by the spacecraft altitude and is almost a direct relationship (i.e., data taken from a 50-km altitude will resolve approximately a 50-km feature). Therefore, revolutions 3 to 12, when the CSM was in the low-altitude orbits, provided the clearest information.

Sjogren, W. L.↗

Bayesian inference of electron density and ion temperature profiles from neutral beam and halo Balmer- α emission at Wendelstein 7-X

By employing Bayesian inference techniques, the full electron density profile from the plasma core to the edge of Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) is inferred solely from neutral hydrogen beam and halo Balmer- α (H α ) emission data. The halo is a cloud of neutrals forming in the vicinity of the injected neutral beam due to multiple charge exchange reactions. W7-X is equipped with several neutral hydrogen beam heating sources and an H α spectroscopy system that views these sources from different angles and penetration depths in the plasma. As the beam and halo emission form complex spectra for each spatial point that are non-linearly dependent on the plasma density profile and other parameters, a complete model from the neutral beam injection and halo formation through to the spectroscopic measurements is required. The model is used here to infer electron density profiles for a range of common W7-X plasma scenarios. The inferred profiles show good agreement with profiles determined by the Thomson scattering and interferometry diagnostics across a broad range of absolute densities without any changes to the input or fitting parameters. The time evolution of the density profile in a discharge with continuous core density peaking is successfully reconstructed, demonstrating sufficient spatial resolution to infer strongly shaped profiles. Furthermore, it is shown as a proof of concept that the model is also able to infer the main ion temperature profile using the same data set.

forward modeling↗

Millstone Hill radar: Capabilities for S/T observations

During the past several years, the 440-MHz radar at Millstone Hill has been modified to detect coherent echoes from clear-air turbulence in the stratosphere/troposphere (S/T) over the altitude range 4-25 km. Two distinct modes of data acquisition have been developed, and data reduction programs have been completed for one of these modes. This mode (I-mode) transmits a 10 microsec (1.5 km) pulse on the fully steerable antenna. Typically, the antenna is set at a low elevation angle (e.g., 15 deg.) to reduce the altitude resolution to approximately 1 km., and power spectra are collected at some 40 range gates. The antenna may be scanned in azimuth to obtain the total wind vector, held fixed to monitor wave motion, or scanned in elevation to monitor the horizontal extent of the turbulent activity. This steerability gives Millstone a flexible system to focus on localized events, such as lee waves or convective storms. An additional advantage at low elevations is the relatively large Doppler shift of the signal, since the LOS velocity contains a large component of the horizontal velocity. This shift separates the turbulence signal sufficiently far from the ground clutter to allow the spectral moments to be readily inferred. Some 500 hours of S/T I-mode data have been reduced to geophysical parameters, and reside on a data base at Millstone Hill.

Loriot, G. B.↗

A NICER View of PSR J0030+0451: Millisecond Pulsar Parameter Estimation

Here, we report on Bayesian parameter estimation of the mass and equatorial radius of the millisecond pulsar PSR J0030+0451, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray spectral-timing event data. We perform relativistic ray-tracing of thermal emission from hot regions of the pulsar's surface. We assume two distinct hot regions based on two clear pulsed components in the phase-folded pulse-profile data; we explore a number of forms (morphologies and topologies) for each hot region, inferring their parameters in addition to the stellar mass and radius. For the family of models considered, the evidence (prior predictive probability of the data) strongly favors a model that permits both hot regions to be located in the same rotational hemisphere. Models wherein both hot regions are assumed to be simply connected circular single-temperature spots, in particular those where the spots are assumed to be reflection-symmetric with respect to the stellar origin, are strongly disfavored. For the inferred configuration, one hot region subtends an angular extent of only a few degrees (in spherical coordinates with origin at the stellar center) and we are insensitive to other structural details; the second hot region is far more azimuthally extended in the form of a narrow arc, thus requiring a larger number of parameters to describe. The inferred mass M and equatorial radius R eq are, respectively, ${1.34}_{-0.16}^{+0.15}\,{M}_{\odot }$ and ${12.71}_{-1.19}^{+1.14}\,\mathrm{km}$, while the compactness ${GM}/{R}_{\mathrm{eq}}{c}^{2}={0.156}_{-0.010}^{+0.008}$ is more tightly constrained; the credible interval bounds reported here are approximately the 16% and 84% quantiles in marginal posterior mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A NICER view of PSR J0030+0541: Millisecond Pulsar Parameter Estimation

We report on Bayesian parameter estimation of the mass and equatorial radius of the millisecond pulsar PSRJ0030+0451, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray spectral timing event data. We perform relativistic ray-tracing of thermal emission from hot regions of the pulsar’s surface. We assume two distinct hot regions based on two clear pulsed components in the phase-folded pulse-profile data; we explore a number of forms (morphologies and topologies) for each hot region, inferring their parameters in addition to the stellar mass and radius. For the family of models considered, the evidence (prior predictive probability of the data) strongly favors a model that permits both hot regions to be located in the same rotational hemisphere. Models wherein both hot regions are assumed to be simply connected circular single-temperature spots, in particular those where the spots are assumed to be reflection-symmetric with respect to the stellar origin, are strongly disfavored. For the inferred configuration, one hot region subtends an angular extent of only a few degrees (in spherical coordinates with origin at the stellar center) and we are insensitive to other structural details; the second hot region is far more azimuthally extended in the form of a narrow arc, thus requiring a larger number of parameters to describe. The inferred mass M and equatorial radius Req are, respectively, -1.34+ M 0.16 0.15 and-12.71+ km 1.19 1.14 , while the compactness = -GM R c 0.156+ eq 2 0.010 0.008 is more tightly constrained; the credible interval bounds reported here are approximately the 16% and 84% quantiles in marginal posterior mass.

T E Riley↗

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives

Abstract. The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comment on the Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred Three-Cycle Quasi-Periodicity of the Planetary Index Ap

Recently, Ahluwalia [1998] reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasi-periodicity in them." Futhermore, on the basis of this inferred quasi-periodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new 3-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum," a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselyn et al. [1997] and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be redressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. In particular, it is shown that Ahluwalia used inappropriate values of the Ap index in his analysis, that the inferred 3-cycle relationship which Ahluwalia claims for both Ap and SSN does not exist for the previous 6-cycle interval (prior to cycle 17) for SSN, that his inferred fit is only of marginal statistical significance (having r = 0.81), and that two alternative precursor fits (both with r = 0.96 or greater) exist which strongly suggest that R max for cycle 23 will be much larger than forecast by Ahluwalia (namely, about 168-187). Thus, caution must be exercised in accepting Ahluwalia's findings.

Hathaway, David H.↗

Correlation-aware binning for small-angle neutron scattering via Gaussian-process inference

Binning in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) is typically performed empirically, with fixed parameters chosen for convenience rather than statistical optimality. Such practices often fail to balance statistical precision and spatial resolution, leading to inconsistencies across instruments and datasets. Here we establish a correlation-aware framework that determines the optimal bin width from first principles by extending the classical Freedman–Diaconis (FD) rule to account for inter-bin correlations with a Gaussian process. In this formulation, the scattering intensity is treated as a smooth stochastic field whose statistical coherence is described by a covariance matrix. Analytical expressions of errors derived from this model yield closed-form criteria that separate the total deviation into contributions from counting noise, aliasing distortion and curvature-dependent correlation effects. Expressed in reduced variables, the resulting dimensionless error surface reveals a continuous transition from the uncorrelated FD regime to the correlation-dominated limit, providing a unified description of noise suppression and resolution control. Because the formulation depends only on the profile characteristics of scattering intensity I(Q), specifically its average intensity and first- and second-order derivatives, it applies generally to any SANS measurement regardless of sample, instrument or geometry. Experimental validation using small- and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering data confirms the predicted scaling behavior, demonstrating that correlation-aware inference systematically reduces mean-squared error and enables information-efficient reproducible data reduction across materials and instruments.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗

Sparsifying priors for Bayesian uncertainty quantification in model discovery

We propose a probabilistic model discovery method for identifying ordinary differential equations governing the dynamics of observed multivariate data. Our method is based on the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) framework, where models are expressed as sparse linear combinations of pre-specified candidate functions. Promoting parsimony through sparsity leads to interpretable models that generalize to unknown data. Instead of targeting point estimates of the SINDy coefficients, we estimate these coefficients via sparse Bayesian inference. The resulting method, uncertainty quantification SINDy (UQ-SINDy), quantifies not only the uncertainty in the values of the SINDy coefficients due to observation errors and limited data, but also the probability of inclusion of each candidate function in the linear combination. UQ-SINDy promotes robustness against observation noise and limited data, interpretability (in terms of model selection and inclusion probabilities) and generalization capacity for out-of-sample forecast. Sparse inference for UQ-SINDy employs Markov chain Monte Carlo, and we explore two sparsifying priors: the spike and slab prior, and the regularized horseshoe prior. UQ-SINDy is shown to discover accurate models in the presence of noise and with orders-of-magnitude less data than current model discovery methods, thus providing a transformative method for real-world applications which have limited data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evidence for Suppression of Structure Growth in the Concordance Cosmological Model

We present evidence for a suppressed growth rate of large-scale structure during the dark-energy dominated era. Modeling the growth rate of perturbations with the ``growth index'' γ, we find that current cosmological data strongly prefer a higher growth index than the value γ=0.55 predicted by general relativity in a flat ΛCDM cosmology. Both the cosmic microwave background data from Planck and the large-scale structure data from weak lensing, galaxy clustering, and cosmic velocities separately favor growth suppression. When combined, they yield γ = 0.633$^{+0.025}_{–0.024}$, excluding γ = 0.55 at a statistical significance of 3.7σ. The combination of fσ8 and Planck measurements prefers an even higher growth index of γ = 0.639$^{+0.024}_{–0.025}$, corresponding to a 4.2σ-tension with the concordance model. In Planck data, the suppressed growth rate offsets the preference for nonzero curvature and fits the data equally well as the latter model. Furthermore, a higher γ leads to a higher matter fluctuation amplitude S 8 inferred from galaxy clustering and weak lensing measurements, and a lower S 8 from Planck data, effectively resolving the S 8 tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Skin friction reduction in supersonic flow by injection through slots, porous sections and combinations of the two

An experimental study of skin friction reduction in a Mach 3.0 air steam with gaseous injection through a tangential slot, a porous wall section, and combinations of the two was conducted. The primary data obtained were wall shear values measured directly with a floating element balance and also inferred from Preston Tube measurements. Detailed profiles at several axial stations, wall pressure distributions and schlieren photographs are presented. The data indicate that a slot provides the greatest skin friction reduction in comparison with a reference flat plate experiment. The porous wall section arrangement suffers from an apparent roughness-induced rise in skin friction at low injection rates compared to the flat plate. The combination schemes demonstrated a potential for gain.

Schetz, J. A.↗

A post-Viking view of Martian geologic evolution

The geologic evolution of Mars is reviewed on the basis of data obtained by the Viking and previous missions. Current knowledge of the mean density and moment of inertia factor of Mars are surveyed and the constraints these data place on the structure and composition of the interior are discussed. Inferences drawn about Martian surface composition and mineralogy from lava modeling studies, in situ analyses, remote sensing observations, flow morphometry and investigations of weathering under Martian conditions are presented, and data on the topography, gravity field and structural features are considered in relation to the structure and deformational history of the crust. The temporal and spatial distribution of volcanic units are considered as a constraint on the thermal evolution of the planet, and other constraints on Martian thermal history, such as magnetic field data, are reviewed. Finally, the volatile inventory of Mars is discussed based on elemental and isotopic atmospheric abundance data and geological constraints on H2O and CO2 abundances.

Arvidson, R. E.↗