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At least 1,477 records · Page 82
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing of Evapotranspiration over the Central Arizona Irrigation and Drainage District, USA

Knowledge of baseline water use for irrigated crops in the U.S. Southwest is important for understanding how much water is consumed under normal farm management and to help manage scarce resources. Remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET) is an effective way to gain that knowledge: multispectral data can provide synoptic and time-repetitive estimates of crop-specific water use, and could be especially useful for this arid region because of dominantly clear skies and minimal precipitation. Although multiple remote sensing ET approaches have been developed and tested, there is not consensus on which of them should be preferred because there are still few intercomparison studies within this environment. To help build the experience needed to gain consensus, a remote sensing study using three ET models was conducted over the Central Arizona Irrigation and Drainage District (CAIDD). Aggregated ET was assessed for 137 wheat plots (winter/spring crop), 183 cotton plots (summer crop), and 225 alfalfa plots (year-round). The employed models were the Satellite-Based Energy Balance for Mapping Evapotranspiration with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), the Two Source Energy Balance (TSEB), and Vegetation Index ET for the US Southwest (VISW). Remote sensing data were principally Landsat 5, supplemented by Landsat 7, MODIS Terra, MODIS Aqua, and ASTER. Using district-wide model averages, seasonal use (excluding surface evaporation) was 742 mm (millimeters) for wheat, 983 mm for cotton, and 1427 mm for alfalfa. All three models produced similar daily ET for wheat, with 6-8 mm per day mid-season. Model estimates diverged for cotton and alfalfa sites. Considering ET over cotton, TSEB estimates were 9.5 mm per day, METRIC 6 mm per day, and VISW 8 mm per day. For alfalfa, the ET values from TSEB were 8.0 mm per day, METRIC 5 mm per day, and VISW 6 mm per day. Lack of local validation information unfortunately made it impossible to rank model performance. However, by averaging results from all of them, ET model outliers could be identified. They ranged from minus 10 percent to plus 18 percent, values that represent expected ET modeling discrepancies. Relative to the model average, standardized ET-estimators - potential ET (ET (sub 0)), FAO-56 ET, and USDA-SW gravimetric-ET - showed still greater deviations, up to 35 percent of annual crop water use for summer and year-round crops, suggesting that remote sensing of actual ET could lead to significantly improved estimates of crop water use. Results from this study highlight the need for conducting multi-model experiments during summer-months over sites with independent ground validation.

Alfalfa↗
DOE OSTI2020

Highlighting the Impact of Yaw Control by Parsing Atmospheric Conditions Based on Total Variation: Preprint

Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariate atmospheric dataset is a necessary step in the validation of wind plant control strategies. Most often, operating conditions are characterized in terms of aggregated observations and assume that the atmosphere is 'quasi-steady'. Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of wind plant operating conditions. Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation sets the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operation strategies. Controlling observational data for statistical stationarity highlights significant enhancements to the power production of waked turbines under wake steering wind plant control. Considering the combined energy ratio of the turbine to which yaw offsets are prescribed as well as the waked turbine show only moderate improvements when filtering for total validation. The same quality control that highlights wake steering also serves to underpin the off-nominal operation of the controlled turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Post‐Perovskite Transition in Fe‐ and Al‐Bearing Bridgmanite: Effects on Seismic Observables

Abstract The primary phase of the Earth’s lower mantle, (Al, Fe)‐bearing bridgmanite, transitions to the post‐perovskite (PPv) phase at Earth’s deep mantle conditions. Despite extensive experimental and ab initio investigations, there are still important aspects of this transformation that need clarification. Here, we address this transition in (Al 3+ , Fe 3+ )‐, (Al 3+ )‐, (Fe 2+ )‐, and (Fe 3+ )‐bearing bridgmanite using ab initio calculations and validate our results against experiments on similar compositions. Consistent with experiments, our results show that the onset transition pressure and the width of the two‐phase region depend distinctly on the chemical composition: (a) Fe 3+ ‐, Al 3+ ‐, or (Al 3+ , Fe 3+ )‐alloying increases the transition pressure, while Fe 2+ ‐alloying has the opposite effect; (b) in the absence of coexisting phases, the pressure‐depth range of the Pv‐PPv transition is likely too broad to cause a sharp D” discontinuity (<30 km); (c) the average Clapeyron slope of the two‐phase regions are consistent with previous measurements, calculations in MgSiO 3 , and inferences from seismic data. In addition, (d) we observe a softening of the bulk modulus in the two‐phase region. The consistency between our results and experiments gives us the confidence to proceed and examine this transition in aggregates with different compositions computationally, which will be fundamental for resolving the most likely chemical composition of the D" region by analyses of tomographic images.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗
DOE OSTI2019

Polyelectrolyte character of rigid rod peptide bundlemer chains constructed via hierarchical self-assembly

Short α-helical peptides were computationally designed to self-assemble into robust coiled coils that are antiparallel, homotetrameric bundles. These peptide bundle units, or ‘bundlemers’, have been utilized as anisotropic building blocks to construct bundlemer-based polymers via a hierarchical, hybrid physical-covalent assembly pathway. The bundlemer chains were constructed using short linker connections via ‘click’ chemistry reactions between the N-termini of bundlemer constituent peptides. The resulting bundlemer chains appear as extremely rigid, cylindrical rods in transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images. Small angle neutron scattering (SANS) shows that these bundlemer chains exist as individual rods in solution with a cross-section that is equal to that of a single coiled coil bundlemer building block of ≈20 Å. SANS further confirms that the interparticle solution structure of the rigid rod bundlemer chains is heterogeneous and responsive to solution conditions, such as ionic-strength and pH. Due to their peptidic constitution, the bundlemer assemblies behave like polyelectrolytes that carry an average charge density of approximately 3 charges per bundlemer as determined from SANS structure factor data fitting, which describes the repulsion between charged rods in solution. This repulsion manifests as a correlation hole in the scattering profile that is suppressed by dilution or addition of salt. Presence of rod cluster aggregates with a mass fractal dimension of ≈2.5 is also confirmed across all samples. The formation of such dense, fractal-like cluster aggregates in a solution of net repulsive rods is a unique example of the subtle balance between short-range attraction and long-rage repulsion interactions in proteins and other biomaterials. With computational control of constituent peptide sequences, it is further possible to deconvolute the underlying sequence driven structure–property relationships in the modular bundlemer chains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Synthetic residential load models for smart city energy management simulations

The ability to control tens of thousands of residential electricity customers in a coordinated manner has the potential to enact system-wide electric load changes, such as reduce congestion and peak demand, among other benefits. To quantify the potential benefits of demand-side management and other power system simulation studies (e.g. home energy management, large-scale residential demand response), synthetic load datasets that accurately characterize the system load are required. This study designs a combined top-down and bottom-up approach for modelling individual residential customers and their individual electric assets, each possessing their own characteristics, using time-varying queueing models. The aggregation of all customer loads created by the queueing models represents a known city-sized load curve to be used in simulation studies. The three presented residential queueing load models use only publicly available data. An open-source Python tool to allow researchers to generate residential load data for their studies is also provided. The simulation results presented consider the ComEd region (utility company from Chicago, IL) and demonstrate the characteristics of the three proposed residential queueing load models, the impact of the choice of model parameters, and scalability performance of the Python tool.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-enhanced Block-Diagram Modeling of Solar Power Systems

Data-driven models of power system inverter-based resources are desired to run simulations faster than with detailed electromagnetic transient models, to hide proprietary design details, to support control system design applications, and to aggregate the effects of distributed energy resources. This paper applies a customized Hammerstein Wiener framework to train block diagram models from thousands of electromagnetic transient simulations or experimental test records. The block diagram models integrate with larger grid simulations as voltagecontrolled current sources or current-controlled voltage sources for several simulators. Guidelines for block architecture and training are presented. Three-phase balanced, three-phase unbalanced, and single-phase examples all achieve an acceptable root mean square error of no more than 0.05 per-unit.

Mcdermott, Thomas E. [Private consulting company]↗
DOE OSTI2026

EV Profile Capture

NextGen Profiles' EV profile capture efforts aimed to explore the variance in performance and evaluate how different operational conditions influence production EV charging behavior. Data were collected at a frequency of 10 Hz from both the EV and EVSE during each charge session. These charge session parameters were then entered into a time-series database for further analysis. The data were gathered under different operational conditions to examine the effects of various factors such as battery state of charge, battery temperature, vehicle condition, smart charge management, and EVSE limitations. The EV profile capture dataset includes extensive high-power charging data from 16 different EVs—comprising light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicles—along with EVSE from various suppliers. To protect confidentiality, the EV and EVSE metadata are anonymized, and the publicly released datasets are aggregated to 0.1-Hz frequency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Green Power Market (2014 Data)

NREL's annual report on green power markets summarizes status and trends in the voluntary demand for renewable energy. U.S. green power markets have become more complex over time as state-level policies have enabled more avenues for green power purchases. In recent years, community solar, community choice aggregation (CCA), and voluntary power purchase agreements (PPAs) have significantly increased the number of U.S. voluntary green power customers. The community solar model has grown rapidly with 90 projects in 25 states by 2015. Renewable energy sales in CCAs declined slightly in 2014 in response to less favorable economic conditions in Illinois. At the same time, several California CCAs continued to grow, and many more communities are planning to pursue green power through aggregation. Voluntary green power purchasing through bi-lateral PPAs took off in 2014 due to several large-scale agreements signed by information and communication technology firms. Traditional green power options, such as utility green pricing programs and voluntary RECs markets, also grew in 2014. Current trends suggest strong continued growth in U.S. voluntary green power markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatial Seal Database for Prospective Storage Resources in the USA

The goal of the Spatial Seal Database for Prospective Storage Resources in the USA is to provide relevant information and spatial extents of caprock and seal rocks. A lack of aggregated information is readily available that focuses on the caprock and seal units within sedimentary basins. The EPA class VI permit requires an assessment of the confining zone as part of submitting a permit. The data catalog of seal unit names and relevant properties with the seal spatial extent database aims to help provided important data for carbon storage based assessments. The data catalog and database are designed to show what seal data is available in a sedimentary basin and guide stakeholders to the original data source for those datasets.

Pantaleone, Scott↗
NASA NTRS1982

Software for the grouped optimal aggregation technique

The grouped optimal aggregation technique produces minimum variance, unbiased estimates of acreage and production for countries, zones (states), or any designated collection of acreage strata. It uses yield predictions, historical acreage information, and direct acreage estimate from satellite data. The acreage strata are grouped in such a way that the ratio model over historical acreage provides a smaller variance than if the model were applied to each individual stratum. An optimal weighting matrix based on historical acreages, provides the link between incomplete direct acreage estimates and the total, current acreage estimate.

Brown, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The relationship of global green leaf biomass to atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Advanced very high resolution radiometer data from NOAA's polar orbiting meteorological satellite have been obtained globally for a 21 month period, processed to produce a green leaf biomass spectral vegetative index for the entire terrestrial surface by month, zonally aggregated by latitude, and compared to atmospheric CO2 concentrations from observing stations. A strong inverse association was found between the monthly Pt. Barrow CO2 concentrations and the vegetation index measurements from 50 deg N to 80 deg N, between the monthly Mauna Loa CO2 concentrations and the vegetation index measurements from 10 deg N to 30 deg N, 10 deg N to 80 deg N, and the global total, and between the globally averaged CO2 concentrations and the globally averaged vegetation index. No relationships between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the vegetative index measurements from any latitude zone or combinations of zones were found for the South Pole station.

Tucker, C. J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Systems usability case in stepwise control room validation - 125

We present a Systems Usability Case (SUC) approach enabling a requirement-based human factors evaluation of complex technical systems. The approach is especially suitable for stepwise verification and validation (V and V) of nuclear power plant (NPP) control room (CR) systems. A SUC is based on the Safety Case approach and on the Systems Usability (SU) construct. A series of V and V test activities carried throughout the design process and constructed according to SUC enables us to monitor how evaluation evidence is aggregated over variety of V and V steps and how the design solution is maturing towards a tool of a good quality and usability. The paper demonstrates an application of the SUC approach to real data from a stepwise CR validation. The results suggest that SUC has some clear advantages. It makes it easier to conduct the V and V activities in a more systematic fashion and it makes the reasoning process more explicit and transparent. Moreover, it enables building a longitudinal view of the progress of the design process. Most importantly, constructing the SUC enables monitoring of the fulfilment of the requirements from the human factors (i.e., SU) perspective. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Three dimensional modeling of cirrus during the 1991 FIRE IFO 2: Detailed process study

A three-dimensional model of cirrus cloud formation and evolution, including microphysical, dynamical, and radiative processes, was used to simulate cirrus observed in the FIRE Phase 2 Cirrus field program (13 Nov. - 7 Dec. 1991). Sulfate aerosols, solution drops, ice crystals, and water vapor are all treated as interactive elements in the model. Ice crystal size distributions are fully resolved based on calculations of homogeneous freezing of solution drops, growth by water vapor deposition, evaporation, aggregation, and vertical transport. Visible and infrared radiative fluxes, and radiative heating rates are calculated using the two-stream algorithm described by Toon et al. Wind velocities, diffusion coefficients, and temperatures were taken from the MAPS analyses and the MM4 mesoscale model simulations. Within the model, moisture is transported and converted to liquid or vapor by the microphysical processes. The simulated cloud bulk and microphysical properties are shown in detail for the Nov. 26 and Dec. 5 case studies. Comparisons with lidar, radar, and in situ data are used to determine how well the simulations reproduced the observed cirrus. The roles played by various processes in the model are described in detail. The potential modes of nucleation are evaluated, and the importance of small-scale variations in temperature and humidity are discussed. The importance of competing ice crystal growth mechanisms (water vapor deposition and aggregation) are evaluated based on model simulations. Finally, the importance of ice crystal shape for crystal growth and vertical transport of ice are discussed.

Jensen, Eric J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Facilitating Data Collection of Maintenance Events to Populate the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety and reliability for hydrogen facilities by implementing component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis. The project aims to quantify failure rates of hydrogen components through high-quality data collection and analysis on root causes and maintenance needed. HyCReD provides a common database for cataloging hydrogen component failures which exists for reliability research in many other mature industries [2]. The database fills a gap for the hydrogen community by providing a scientifically rigorous approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA), prognostic health management (PHM), and reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis. High level results will be aggregated and anonymized to protect company sensitive information; detailed results will be used to help address issues of hydrogen components. These advanced analytics will support accelerated deployment of hydrogen infrastructure by enabling better: design and safety of projects (safety codes and standards development), infrastructure reliability and cost (component failure rates, maintenance protocols), and component R&D needs (robust supply chain). A key to a successful HyCReD implementation is facilitating the ease of reporting and data quality in the database that can be used for analysis. Maintenance data was a previously identified gap in initial efforts to populate and validate the database taxonomies [3]. Collection of maintenance data will be instrumental in identifying failure modes and rates, identifying incipient component failures or reduced performance, cataloging best practices for maintenance routines and methods for prognostic health management, and quantifying the risk and effect of different failure modes. Several key priorities are identified for streamlined data collection to achieve quality and detailed failure data: Applicability, Ease of Use, Accessibility, and Information Security. The HyCReD team has now begun deployment of the database to several companies and groups that have signed non-disclosure agreements to facilitate the data collection of failures in industry hydrogen refueling station infrastructure. This paper will provide an update into the process of HyCReD deployment including the development of a coding guide for facility personnel to reference and ensure data quality and consistency from one station to another as well as implementation of contextually dependent data fields of system taxonomy and formatted entries to provide ease of use. The goal is to communicate the lessons learned from the roll-out to technicians and engineers in the field, and the addition of need for high level of security to protect all stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Community stability is related to animal diversity change

Abstract Understanding the drivers of community stability in times of increasing anthropogenic pressure is an urgent issue. Biodiversity is known to promote community stability, but studies of the biodiversity–stability relationship rarely consider the full complexity of biodiversity change. Furthermore, finding generalities that hold across taxonomic groups and spatial and temporal scales remains challenging because most investigations have narrow taxonomic, spatial, and temporal scopes. We used organismal data collected through the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) at sites across the contiguous United States to evaluate linkages between community stability and biodiversity change for four taxonomic groups: small mammals, ground beetles, fish, and freshwater macroinvertebrates. We defined community stability as constancy of aggregate species' abundance. We quantified change in biodiversity as (1) dissimilarity in community taxonomic and functional composition and species replacement and richness change components of that dissimilarity and (2) change in species' abundance distributions as captured by change in species rank, richness, and evenness. We found that community stability increased with species replacement and with contribution of species replacement to overall dissimilarity for all taxonomic groups, but declined with increasing change in species richness and evenness. This is consistent with the notion that temporal fluctuations in species abundance can help stabilize community properties. We also found that community stability was highest when change in community functional composition was either lower or higher than expected given reshuffling of each community's taxonomic composition. This suggests that long‐term community stability can result from fluctuations of functionally similar species in assemblages with high taxonomic reshuffling. On the contrary, the functional uniqueness of fluctuating species compensates for lower taxonomic reshuffling to drive stabilization of community properties. Our study provides an initial assessment of the relationship between community stability and biodiversity change and illustrates the utility of fine temporal resolution data collected across ecosystems and biomes to understand the general mechanisms underlying biodiversity–stability relationships.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Minimum Cost Multi-way Data Association for Optimizing Multitarget Tracking of Interacting Objects

This paper presents a general formulation for a minimum cost data association problem which associates data features via one-to-one, m-to-one and one-to-n links with minimum total cost of the links. A motivating example is a problem of tracking multiple interacting nanoparticles imaged on video frames, where particles can aggregate into one particle or a particle can be split into multiple particles. Many existing multitarget tracking methods are capable of tracking non-interacting targets or tracking interacting targets of restricted degrees of interactions. The proposed formulation solves a multitarget tracking problem for general degrees of inter-object interactions. The formulation is in the form of a binary integer programming problem. We propose a polynomial time solution approach that can obtain a good relaxation solution of the binary integer programming, so the approach can be applied for multitarget tracking problems of a moderate size (for hundreds of targets over tens of time frames). The resulting solution is always integral and obtains a better duality gap than the simple linear relaxation solution of the corresponding problem. The proposed method was validated through applications to simulated multitarget tracking problems and a real multitarget tracking problem.

Binary Integer Programming↗