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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Detection of aspen-conifer forest mixes from LANDSAT digital data

Aspen, conifer and mixed aspen/conifer forests were mapped for a 15-quadrangle study area in the Utah-Idaho Bear River Range using LANDSAT multispectral scanner data. Digital classification and statistical analysis of LANDSAT data allowed the identification of six groups of signatures which reflect different types of aspen/conifer forest mixing. Photo interpretations of the print symbols suggest that such classes are indicative of mid to late seral aspen forests. Digital print map overlays and acreage calculations were prepared for the study area quadrangles. Further field verification is needed to acquire additional information about the nature of the forests. Single date LANDSAT analysis should be a cost effective means to index aspen forests which are at least in the mid seral phase of conifer invasion. Since aspen canopies tend to obscure understory conifers for early seral forests, a second date analysis, using data taken when aspens are leafless, could provide information about early seral aspen forests.

Jaynes, R. A.↗

Detection of aspen/conifer forest mixes from multitemporal Landsat digital data

Aspen, conifer and mixed aspen/conifer forests were mapped for a 15-quadrangle study area in the Utah-Idaho Bear River Range using Landsat multispectral scanner data. Digital classification and statistical analysis of Landsat data allowed the identification of six groups of signatures which reflect different types of aspen/conifer forest mixing. Photo interpretations of the print symbols suggest that such classes are indicative of mid to late seral aspen forests. Digital print map overlayes and acreage calculations were prepared for the study area quadrangles. Further field verification is needed to acquire additional information about the nature of the forests. Single data Landsat analysis should be a cost effective means to index aspen forests which are at least in the mid seral phase of conifer invasion. Since aspen canopies tend to obscure understory conifers for early seral forests, a second data analysis, using data taken when aspens are leafless, could provide information about early seral aspen forests.

Merola, J. A.↗

The Economics of NASA Mission Cost Reserves

Increases in NASA mission costs have led to analysis of the causes and magnitude of historical mission overruns as well as mitigation and prevention attempts. This paper hypothesizes that one cause is that the availability of reserves may reduce incentives to control costs. We draw a comparison to the insurance concept of moral hazard, and we use actuarial techniques to better understand the increase in mission costs due to the availability of reserves. NASA's CADRe database provided the data against which we tested our hypothesis and discovered that there is correlation between the amount of available reserves and project overruns, particularly for mission hardware cost increases. We address the question of how to prevent reserves from increasing mission spending without increasing cost risk to projects.

Whitley, Sally↗

Risk-informed Physical Security Using Dynamic Force-on-Force Modelling Tools (ABSTRACT)

Physical security requirement of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the US is regulated in a mainly prescriptive manner. This “one size fits all” approach may consequently overlook plant-specific characteristics which are beneficial for the inherent safety and security of the plant. Although a performance-based security measure has been promulgated in 10 CFR 73.55(r), current evaluation methods generally emphasize static and conservative assumptions on physical security uncertainties. This conservatism contributes to the overall operational and maintenance costs, which account to 70% of total operating expenditures for an NPP. This paper describes an ongoing work at the Idaho National Laboratory within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway, which aims to optimize physical protection system with regards to system effectiveness and dollar costs. To achieve this goal, a risk-informed approach to physical security is proposed. This approach leverages the Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool to model facility infiltration and Force-on-Force (FoF) engagement in a dynamic manner. The dynamic FoF analysis was conducted by coupling human performance uncertainties modeled in EMRALD to existing commercial 3-dimensional FoF software, i.e. SCRIBE3D, AVERT and Simajin. Meanwhile, risk analysis was accomplished by coupling the attack outcomes to existing plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) model with FLEX strategy. This approach reduces the conservatisms in security modeling and further acknowledges the possibility for plant operators to mitigate the attack outcomes. A sabotage attack on a hypothetical NPP facility was devised to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Dynamic FoF rules were implemented in EMRALD coupled to SCRIBE3D. This dynamic evaluation revealed an additional 21% system effectiveness in protecting the target set relative to the static modelling approach. Furthermore, the conditional core damage probability could be reduced by up to 46% by crediting operator actions in mitigating the sabotage outcomes. We evaluated the relative importance of each component of the physical security posture included in the model and assessed tradeoffs between components to identify potential opportunities for cost reduction while maintaining a specific level of system effectiveness. Results of the cost analysis will be presented in the conference. This study is expected to help NPP operators in allocating resources optimally to satisfy the security requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hydrogen Production Cost from Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to estimate the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) production using Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide (PSO) electrolysis. The analysis evaluates Current (2025) and Future (2035) technology cases at centralized plant scales of 50 and 500 metric tonnes per day (MTD), assuming electricity, water, and air as the only system inputs. Untaxed, unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is projected to range from 2020 $\$$1.81 to $\$$2.47/kg H 2 at an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and 97% capacity factor under Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) deployment assumptions. Total installed capital cost was developed using bottom-up Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) stack cost modeling and detailed balance-of-plant estimates, including mechanical and electrical subsystems, installation, site preparation, engineering, and contingency. Stack performance assumptions include thermoneutral operation, degradation over time, and periodic replacement. LCOH was calculated using the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) discounted cash flow model in constant 2020 dollars. Results indicate PSO electrolysis has potential for competitive hydrogen production costs under low-cost electricity and mature manufacturing conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Integrating Hydrogen Production and Electricity Markets: Analytical Insights from California

This report compares the cost of different pathways for producing hydrogen in California. In addition to capturing the current cost of electrolyzers and other equipment, the pathways apply current retail electricity tariff options offered by utilities Southern California Edison (SCE), Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). The analysis also tests the cost of combining hydrogen production with utility-scale wind or solar generation in California. Scenarios examine current costs as well as projections for 2030. The cost benchmark - a relatively low electrolytic hydrogen production cost - is based on the wholesale price of electricity used by a theoretical hydrogen production plant connected directly to the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) transmission system. California law currently prohibits this approach in CAISO, but it is permissible in other organized wholesale electricity markets. The cost for producing hydrogen under 2019 conditions in this theoretical case was approximately $3/kg. Different scenarios are used to examine current costs, e.g., 2019, as well as projections for 2030.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Spacelab cost reduction alternatives study. Volume 3: Crew training task analysis

The on-orbit phase of flight was analyzed to identify the functions that had to be performed to meet flight objectives. The functions identified were combined into a top-level functional flow diagram (3.0 On-Orbit Operations). Each function, in turn, was analyzed to determine the major activities necessary to perform the function. The activities and activity sequences were presented in second level functional flow diagrams. Each major activity was further analyzed to define the operator tasks that are performed to accomplish that activity. Training analysis worksheets were used to document the analysis of each function down to the task level and provide training requirements data for each task. For Vol. 1, see N76-24315.

Source record↗

Structural dynamics payload loads estimates

The development of a full scale payload integration method which reduces the cost of a load cycle and is capable of land long very large systems is discussed. The method solves the coupled booster/payload system equations and does not involve additional approximations as compared to the standard transient analysis. The method is cost effective and directly applicable to the shuttle payload design case.

Engels, R. C.↗

Improved dynamic analysis method using load-dependent Ritz vectors

The dynamic analysis of large space structures is important in order to predict their behavior under operating conditions. Computer models of large space structures are characterized by having a large number of degrees of freedom, and the computational effort required to carry out the analysis is very large. Conventional methods of solution utilize a subset of the eigenvectors of the system, but for systems with many degrees of freedom, the solution of the eigenproblem is in many cases the most costly phase of the analysis. For this reason, alternate solution methods need to be considered. It is important that the method chosen for the analysis be efficient and that accurate results be obtainable. It is important that the method chosen for the analysis be efficient and that accurate results be obtainable. The load dependent Ritz vector method is presented as an alternative to the classical normal mode methods for obtaining dynamic responses of large space structures. A simplified model of a space station is used to compare results. Results show that the load dependent Ritz vector method predicts the dynamic response better than the classical normal mode method. Even though this alternate method is very promising, further studies are necessary to fully understand its attributes and limitations.

Escobedo-Torres, J.↗

Exploring Mission Concepts with the JPL Innovation Foundry A-Team

The JPL Innovation Foundry has established a new approach for exploring, developing, and evaluating early concepts called the A-Team. The A-Team combines innovative collaborative methods with subject matter expertise and analysis tools to help mature mission concepts. Science, implementation, and programmatic elements are all considered during an A-Team study. Methods are grouped by Concept Maturity Level (CML), from 1 through 3, including idea generation and capture (CML 1), initial feasibility assessment (CML 2), and trade space exploration (CML 3). Methods used for each CML are presented, and the key team roles are described from two points of view: innovative methods and technical expertise. A-Team roles for providing innovative methods include the facilitator, study lead, and assistant study lead. A-Team roles for providing technical expertise include the architect, lead systems engineer, and integration engineer. In addition to these key roles, each A-Team study is uniquely staffed to match the study topic and scope including subject matter experts, scientists, technologists, flight and instrument systems engineers, and program managers as needed. Advanced analysis and collaborative engineering tools (e.g. cost, science traceability, mission design, knowledge capture, study and analysis support infrastructure) are also under development for use in A-Team studies and will be discussed briefly. The A-Team facilities provide a constructive environment for innovative ideas from all aspects of mission formulation to eliminate isolated studies and come together early in the development cycle when they can provide the biggest impact. This paper provides an overview of the A-Team, its study processes, roles, methods, tools and facilities.

Team Eureka↗

CSP Systems Analysis 2022-2024 (Final Technical Report)

The CSP Systems Analysis project estimates the current market cost of CSP subsystems and technologies for use by the DOE Program and within NREL analysis tools. The project addresses upgrades to NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) related to CSP, as well as development of new modules within SAM to expand the types of CSP systems that can be simulated and new tools for evaluating CSP subsystem performance or optimizing CSP system layouts, for example, SolarPILOT and SolTrace. The project evaluates the potential cost and performance of new CSP-relevant technologies and generally includes assessment of CSP technologies in support of the DOE subprogram. A primary goal of the CSP System Analysis project is to provide timely and accurate cost data to the DOE to assess the current state of CSP technologies as well as predict performance and cost for pre-commercial and emerging technologies that may impact the industry. Prior work in this task has produced technology cost reports and roadmaps for DOE and highlighted promising research paths that could reduce overall CSP cost, such as the supercritical CO2 power cycle and molten-salt trough systems. CSP Systems Analysis produces modeling tools to evaluate the performance of CSP systems, subsystems, or components, and journal articles, conference papers, technical reports and databases to disseminate information to the CSP industry. CSP technology costs are estimated and tracked using these tools as well as analysis of literature and industry sources. The CSP modeling tools and NREL analysis results are used by researchers; government, financial, and industry analysts; and other CSP stakeholders. The purpose of this final technical report is to summarize the key accomplishments of the past three years of this project. The project was divided into seven separate tasks, and in what follows, we describe the background, objectives, key accomplishments, and path forward for each task within the project, with one section of this report summarizing each task.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

AC and DC Hybrid Distribution Grids with Solar Integration: Architecture, Stabilization and Cost Assessment

In this project, a holistic analysis of architecture, stabilization, and cost/efficiency analysis in hybrid AC and DC distribution grids are conducted. Particularly, versatile and cost-efficient multiport converters are developed to not only integrate solar sources and other DERs in DC grids, but also facilitate the interactive operation of DC sub-grids and conventional AC distribution grids. Meanwhile, a universal and extended impedance-based stabilization approach with a decentralized and adaptive virtual impedance loop is developed in hybrid AC and DC distribution grids, which comprehensively covers the active stabilization of DC sections, AC sections, and interface inverters interlinking both AC and DC sections. Furthermore, to quantitatively evaluate the cost and efficiency of hybrid AC and DC distribution grids and quantify the improvement of hybrid AC and DC grids over conventional pure AC grids, the project team develops an alpha-version tool to monitor and calculate the efficiency and cost of the DC, AC, or hybrid AC and DC grids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Microextraction-Single Particle-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry for the Direct Analysis of Nanoparticles on Surfaces

A novel employment of single particle-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (SP-ICP-MS) was developed, where a microextraction (ME) probe is used to sample nanoparticles from a surface and analyze them in a single analytical step. The effects of several parameters on the performance of ME-SP-ICP-MS were investigated, including the flow rate, choice of carrier solution, particle size, and the design of the microextraction probe head itself. The optimized ME-SP-ICP-MS technique was used to compare the extraction efficiency (EE, defined as the ratio of particles measured to particles deposited on the surface) of the commercial probe head to a newly designed SP polyether ether ketone (PEEK) probe head. The SP PEEK probe head was found to have increased EE compared to the commercial probe head (8.5 ± 3% vs 3.9 ± 3%, respectively). Increasing the carrier solution flow rate was found to decrease the total analysis time at the cost of decreasing EE. Extraction efficiencies for ME-SP-ICP-MS were typically 4–10%, which is similar to transport efficiencies (1–10%) for conventional SP-ICP-MS. Lastly, ME-SP-ICP-MS was employed for the analysis of nano- and microparticles. The sizes of gold nanoparticles, 30 ± 3 and 51 ± 1.9 nm (certified sizes), and iron-based microparticles, 1000 ± 50 nm (certified size), were accurately determined to be 32.2 ± 2.5, 50.8 ± 3.4, and 1030 ± 57 nm, respectively, by ME-SP-ICP-MS. Further, this work demonstrates the potential of ME-SP-ICP-MS for the direct analysis of particles on common collection surfaces (GSR tabs, carbon planchettes, etc.) while retaining spatial information on particle distribution across the surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Research of low cost wind generator rotors

A feasibility program determined that it would be possible to significantly reduce the cost of manufacturing wind generator rotors by making them of cast urethane. Several high modulus urethanes which were structurally tested were developed. A section of rotor was also cast and tested showing the excellent aerodynamic surface which results. A design analysis indicated that a cost reduction of almost ten to one can be achieved with a small weight increase to achieve the same structural integrity as expected of current rotor systems.

Fertis, D. G.↗

Quantifying Rooftop Solar Benefits: A State-Level Value of Solar Analysis for India

Analyses that quantify the costs and benefits associated with rooftop solar (RTS) adoption and operation can inform decision-makers in the development and evaluation of RTS policies. One such analysis is a Value of Solar (VOS) study, which quantifies select costs and benefits surrounding RTS based on the electricity system context. These studies can drive changes to existing policies towards fairer, more cost-reflective RTS compensation or alternatively can provide confidence for the decision-maker to stay the course and largely maintain existing policies. This report provides a VOS analysis for two states in India: Gujarat and Jharkhand and provides details related to the methodology and key findings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Empirical prediction of saline water atomization pressure loss and spray phase change using local flow pressure analysis

A pressure analysis technique was developed to obtain spray spatial evaporation profile in a thermal desalination process. The technique can replace temperature-based evaporation measurement methods that are challenged by liquid-phase interference. It also provides an alternative to optical methods with high cost and complexity. Fundamental analysis was developed to determine local humidity ratios from changes in local static and dynamic pressures. The analysis was applied to data obtained from an external mixing air-assist atomizer. An empirical model was developed for the pressure loss in atomization process and was used in the analysis of humidity ratio. The results were used to develop empirical correlations for local humidity ratio in spray mediums using inlet conditions. Utilizing inlet conditions to predict evaporation profiles is an important contribution as it eliminates the need to take local spray measurements. Obtaining local data is often difficult and expensive; Our method and correlation circumvent the need for that. Finally, the correlations presented in this paper apply to saline water sprays with total dissolved salt of 0-10 wt%. The salinity-specific correlations are accurate to within ±10% of experimental data. The individual models were aggregated into a unified correlation for salinities within 0-10 wt%. The unified correlation is accurate to within ±18% of experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗