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Lightweight graphite/polyimide panels

Panels are constructed of honeycombed polyimide/graphite core covered with thin face sheet of same material. Fabrication is based on extension of thin-gage graphite technology and modification of glass filament polyimide honeycomb techniques.

Poesch, J. G.↗

Moonport: Transportation node in lunar orbit

An orbital transporation system between the Earth and Moon was designed. The design work focused on the requirements and configuration of an orbiting lunar base. The design utilized current Space Station technologies, but also focused on the specific requirements involved with a permanently manned, orbiting lunar station. A model of the recommended configuration was constructed. In order to analyze Moonport activity and requirements, a traffic model was designed, defining traffic between the lunar port, or Moonport and low Earth orbit. Also, a lunar base model was used to estimate requirements of the surface base on Moonport traffic and operations. A study was conducted to compare Moonport traffic and operations based in low lunar orbit and the L (sub 2) equilibrium point, behind the Moon. The study compared delta-V requirements to each location and possible payload deliveries to low Earth orbit from each location. Products of the Moonport location study included number of flights annually to Moonport, net payload delivery to low Earth orbit, and Moonport storage requirement.

Source record↗

Fabrication of the HIAD Large-Scale Demonstration Assembly and Upcoming Mission Applications

Over a decade of work has been conducted in the development of NASAs Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) technology. This effort has included multiple ground test campaigns and flight tests culminating in the HIAD projects second generation (Gen-2) deployable aeroshell system and associated analytical tools. NASAs HIAD project team has developed, fabricated, and tested inflatable structures (IS) integrated with flexible thermal protection system (F-TPS), ranging in diameters from 3-6m, with cone angles of 60 and 70 deg.In 2015, United Launch Alliance (ULA) announced that they will use a HIAD (10-12m) as part of their Sensible, Modular, Autonomous Return Technology (SMART) for their upcoming Vulcan rocket. ULA expects SMART reusability, coupled with other advancements for Vulcan, will substantially reduce the cost of access to space. The first booster engine recovery via HIAD is scheduled for 2024. To meet this near-term need, as well as future NASA applications, the HIAD team is investigating taking the technology to the 10-15m diameter scale.In the last year, many significant development and fabrication efforts have been accomplished, culminating in the construction of a large-scale inflatable structure demonstration assembly. This assembly incorporated the first three tori for a 12m Mars Human-Scale Pathfinder HIAD conceptual design that was constructed with the current state of the art material set. Numerous design trades and torus fabrication demonstrations preceded this effort. In 2016, three large-scale tori (0.61m cross-section) and six subscale tori (0.25m cross-section) were manufactured to demonstrate fabrication techniques using the newest candidate material sets. These tori were tested to evaluate durability and load capacity. This work led to the selection of the inflatable structures third generation (Gen-3) structural liner. In late 2016, the three tori required for the large-scale demonstration assembly were fabricated, and then integrated in early 2017. The design includes provisions to add the remaining four tori necessary to complete the assembly of the 12m Human-Scale Pathfinder HIAD in the event future project funding becomes available.This presentation will discuss the HIAD large-scale demonstration assembly design and fabrication per-formed in the last year including the precursor tori development and the partial-stack fabrication. Potential near-term and future 10-15m HIAD applications will also be discussed.

Swanson, G. T.↗

Measuring Mobility Potential: A Novel Metric to Quantify Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) of Transportation Systems

For nearly a century, the automobile has been the primary mode of personal transportation in American life. This remains true today as millions of people rely heavily on cars to connect suburbs with cities or to travel long distances - often out of routine or convenience. However, advances in technology are fueling an era of transportation transformation, with the potential to transform a system that has remained virtually unchanged for decades. The challenges of interconnecting our cities and creating a cross-continental transportation system for military purposes spawned the interstate highway system, generating the age of the automobile. In this century, congestion and mobility challenges of rising urban populations are spawning ever-evolving mobility and communications technologies to connect people to goods, services, and employment within a metropolitan and national context - all of which define a high quality of life. Aspiring smart cities are wrestling with questions such as: How does mobility impact a person's quality of life? Would people make different travel choices if they were presented with better information about their mobility options? Would businesses make different location decisions if they could assess the quality of mobility in that area? The ability to quantify the quality of mobility at a given location is the first step toward answering these questions. In response, an interdisciplinary team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed the Mobility-Energy Productivity (MEP) metric. The MEP metric provides an avenue to not only measure the quality of mobility at a specific location in its current configuration, but also to test how various technological advances (e.g., connected and automated vehicles, plug-in electric vehicles, shared mobility) and infrastructure investments (e.g., building an additional highway lane, constructing a new shopping mall, implementing a transit-oriented development) impact the mobility of that location over time.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Urban Traveler - Changes and Impacts: Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) Metric

For nearly a century, the automobile has been the primary mode of personal transportation in American life. This remains true today as millions of people rely heavily on cars to connect suburbs with cities or to travel long distances—often out of routine or convenience. However, advances in technology are fueling an era of transportation transformation, with the potential to transform a system that has remained virtually unchanged for decades. Aspiring smart cities are wrestling with questions such as: How does mobility impact a person’s quality of life? Would people make different travel choices if they were presented with better information about their mobility options? The ability to quantify the mobility potential of a given location is the first step toward answering these questions. In response, an interdisciplinary team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed the Mobility-Energy Productivity (MEP) metric. The MEP metric provides an avenue to not only measure the mobility potential at a specific location in its current configuration, but also to test how various technological advances (e.g., connected and automated vehicles, plug-in electric vehicles, shared mobility) and infrastructure investments (e.g., building an additional highway lane, constructing a new shopping mall, implementing a transit-oriented development) impact the mobility of that location over time. This presentation details the FY19 progress on the MEP metric project funded through DOE VTO's SMART Mobility Consortium.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DUNE Phase II: scientific opportunities, detector concepts, technological solutions

The international collaboration designing and constructing the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) at the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) has developed a two-phase strategy toward the implementation of this leading-edge, large-scale science project. The 2023 report of the US Particle Physics Project Prioritization Panel (P5) reaffirmed this vision and strongly endorsed DUNE Phase I and Phase II, as did the European Strategy for Particle Physics. While the construction of the DUNE Phase I is well underway, this White Paper focuses on DUNE Phase II planning. DUNE Phase-II consists of a third and fourth far detector (FD) module, an upgraded near detector complex, and an enhanced 2.1 MW beam. The fourth FD module is conceived as a “Module of Opportunity”, aimed at expanding the physics opportunities, in addition to supporting the core DUNE science program, with more advanced technologies. This document highlights the increased science opportunities offered by the DUNE Phase II near and far detectors, including long-baseline neutrino oscillation physics, neutrino astrophysics, and physics beyond the standard model. It describes the DUNE Phase II near and far detector technologies and detector design concepts that are currently under consideration. A summary of key R&D goals and prototyping phases needed to realize the Phase II detector technical designs is also provided. DUNE's Phase II detectors, along with the increased beam power, will complete the full scope of DUNE, enabling a multi-decadal program of groundbreaking science with neutrinos.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Optimized Carbon Fiber Intermediate Development to Enable High-Volume Manufacturing of Lightweight Automotive Composites

The ongoing pursuit of improved fuel economy and reduced greenhouse gas emissions has resulted in sustained interest for lightweight materials technologies. In this context, carbon fiber composites have captured the imagination of automotive engineers due to the potential to achieve substantial mass reduction when compared to traditional steel construction. That stated, the use of carbon fiber composites in automotive has been limited for the most part to premium supercars and other derivative platforms. In these cases, manufacturing costs are less of an obstacle to implementation, and the performance benefits of carbon fiber have enabled production of structures offering more than 50% weight savings. In practice, translating these low-volume demonstrations onto high-volume vehicle platforms has remained challenging. This can be attributed to several factors, with the absence of suitable high throughput production methodologies being a key impediment. To date, structural, crash critical components have relied upon manufacturing techniques born out of the aerospace industry. This has created a disconnect between automotive production systems that are accustomed to manufacturing multiple parts per minute and the aerospace technologies that have cycle times in the order of hours. Consequently, the focus of this project is the development of manufacturing process technology for carbon fiber composites that can support a mainstream vehicle program at an assumed throughput of 100,000 vehicles per year. In practice, this translates to a part-to-part cycle time of less than 3 minutes. Project participation included contributions from a broad range of academic, industrial and national lab partners. The primary scope of work, being the development of new carbon fiber epoxy compounds that are stable at room temperature and suited to high throughput automated processing. For project management, the work streams were divided into six key areas, with the lead organization in parentheses. • Carbon fiber/epoxy materials formulation development and scale up (Dow) • Simulation of discontinuous near isotropic meso-structure intermediates (Purdue) • Simulation of mechanical performance of compression molded components (Purdue) • Meso-Scale morphological analysis and correlation with structural performance (UTK) • Paint and adhesion durability analysis (MSU) • Demonstrator part design, prototype production, and validation testing (Ford). The primary goal at the commencement of the project was development of a chopped carbon fiber sheet molding compound (SMC) that offered a three times improvement in tensile modulus over a comparable glass-based SMC. In addition to meeting mechanical performance targets, the resin kinetics were modified to achieve a processing cycle time of less than 3 minutes. Other critical-to-quality (CTQ) specifications were also stipulated to account for a broad range of materials and processing characteristics. To achieve the above, staff scientists at Dow Chemical created an extensive series of new epoxy blends for testing and validation. Throughout this development, a key challenge was attaining material performance goals without impacting processing behavior and paintability of finished components. The latter required a new internal mold release system being developed by Dow that was designed to complement the kinetics of the rapid cure epoxy. As a complement to work studies at the industrial partners, the teams from academia executed a series of analytical and experimental studies to investigate potential factors influencing CF-SMC performance. Unit cell models were developed to capture the meso-scale representations of the fiber matrix architecture. Results of this analysis and subsequent morphological investigations led to the design of a novel composite derivative comprising carbon fiber platelets embedded in an epoxy matrix; the platelet size and aspect ratio playing significant role in final composite properties. This approach was a departure from previous research in CF-SMC development whereby bulk filamentization or disassembly of the carbon fiber rovings had been considered the most effective means of achieving both fiber wet through and wet-out. As the course of the academia studies progressed, the aspect ratio of the fiber constituents was further optimized before finalizing material attributes and processing conditions. For the purposes of technology validation, the Ford team led a work stream devoted to the design, fabrication and testing of demonstration components. The carbon fiber SMC material has the potential to displace numerous stampings and castings on an automotive structure but ultimately vehicle closure applications were selected to showcase the abilities of the CF-SMC to achieve both mass reduction and business case for large complex structures. Using target properties established by the Dow staff scientists, the complete closure system for a full-size sedan decklid and a mid-size wagon liftgate were engineered. Prototypes for both applications were fabricated using production representative processing methods to allow for physical testing and performance validation of the CF-SMC structures. Following completion of a testing program that concluded with a FMVSS301 55 mph offset rear crash, the CF-SMC formulation was declared by the Ford team to have met all engineering requirements. To summarize, the joint development activities during this project led to significant technical breakthroughs and achievement of all milestones. The result was the development of a novel, tack-free carbon fiber molding compound that is suited to automated processing. This combined room temperature stability, fast cure kinetics, and internal mold release system facilitates cycle times that are conducive to high-volume production. The VORAFUSE M6400 successfully passed technology validation at Ford and is now eligible for consideration on future production commercial vehicle programs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Status Report on Regulatory Criteria Applicable to the Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)

Although the interest in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in nuclear energy is increasing rapidly, at present their implementation is limited. This rapid increase in interest is not surprising considering that implementing AI and ML technology would allow for continuous monitoring, facilitate the implementation of predictive maintenance with optimized staffing plans, enable automation and autonomy opportunities that could drastically reduce fixed operation and maintenance costs, and provide training for operations and maintenance. Other industries are using AI for construction, and in the nuclear arena AI could provide great benefit in decommissioning activities. The ability of AI and ML to operate in real time vastly increases their potential impact. Before AI can be used in design, operations, or as a regulatory tool, the specifics on the regulations applicable to the use of AI for nuclear power applications need to be established. The difficulty is that the specific use cases will dictate the applicability of regulations. For example, even within the application domain associated with operations, the regulations might vary if the AI is used to create a virtual reference for plant operations or is used for training, optimization of maintenance intervals, prioritization of maintenance activities, etc. Different still is if the AI is to be used for design or setting technical specifications, which will introduce additional requirements. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing reviews are based on an applicant’s design meeting its performance assessment based on (1) safety goals and objectives, (2) deterministic and/or probabilistic analysis of accident scenarios, and (3) quantitative assessment of design alternatives against the safety goals and objectives using accepted engineering tools, methodologies, and performance criteria. The current regulatory framework does not explicitly address AI or autonomous control. However, as implementing AI technology will require the use of a digital platform, it must meet the requirements of an instrumentation and control (I&C) system. The regulatory requirements for AI, which will be incorporated into the I&C system, will be very dependent on how it is used (i.e., its functionality, safety classification, etc.). The licensing process is primarily risk-based with the identification of components and systems as nonsafety, important to safety, or safety related. A risk-informed approach allows further gradation of components and systems based on risk metrics such as core damage frequency or large early release fractions. Thus, the use cases and the risk categorization of impacted systems and components will determine the regulatory requirements. Regardless of how AI is used it presents new opportunities for risk-informing operating, maintenance, and regulatory decisions. Trustworthiness, transparency, and the ability to validate and verify the results will be paramount in showing that the systems and plant still meet their performance requirements. This report describes the results of research to identify regulatory implications of AI technologies and their uses. Specifically, this report reviews current regulatory guidance relevant to the application of AI for design (including design changes or new designs including advanced reactors), construction, operations, training, maintenance, research, testing, and as a regulatory tool. AI can be automated at different levels from purely informative purposes to autonomous controls. The focus of this review included determination of constraints on the application of AI technology, identification of any regulatory gaps or uncertainties, and clarification of anticipated technical basis information likely to be important for regulatory acceptance of these technologies. Currently, any use of AI at nuclear power plants is focused on nonsafety-related applications. The NRC and other regulatory bodies are evaluating providing guidance to address gaps rather than create new regulations to address the use of AI and ML. This approach seems to be the best to encourage AI development without adding regulatory uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Design and construction of models for the National Transonic Facility, part 2

This lecture presents the results of fastener load and retention systems tests which were carried out as a part of the cryogenic models technology development program a the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Various design concepts for the National Transonic Facility (NTF) developmental and production models are discussed. A number of NTF models are described with emphasis on materials used, uniqueness of design and design drivers. Design and fabrication experience is presented in terms of the primary thermal and mechanical considerations required for design as well as fabrication. Cost considerations are addressed in terms of factors influencing costs for NTF models and cost data comparisons which are taken from both NASA Langley and industry experience.

Young, C. P., Jr.↗

Lunar Mega Project: Processes, Work Flow and Terminology of the Terrestrial Construction Industry versus the Space Industry

Recent developments around the world show an increased interest and international activity toward developing a lunar surface human and robotic presence with a long term, sustainable vision. In Europe, the construction of a "Moon Village" has been proposed, and China has stated its intention to build a research station with a crew at the lunar South Pole. Russia stated it will land cosmonauts on the Moon in the 2030's. India has sent an orbiter, a robotic lander, and rover to the Moon. The USA intends to land the first woman and a man on the Moon by 2024 to initiate a sustained human lunar presence.A lunar research station with associated commercial activities will require infrastructure to become a permanent capability. Landing and launch pads, propellant storage and distribution farms, spacecraft access and handling structures, cranes, blast protection berms or walls, roads, graded areas, dust stabilized areas, foundations, parking lots, radiation shelters, micro-meteorite protection hangars, habitats and other human shelters, greenhouse farms, utility trenches, power plants, industrial water and oxygen extraction plants, communications antenna towers, thermal protection, mining zones, crater access and sub-surface access will be required to create a safe and sustainable lunar operations capability. This infrastructure will require significant construction activities in an extreme environment, with risky and expensive operations. On Earth, there are similar large and expensive projects (>$1 Billion) in difficult locations that attract a lot of public attention. These are known as "Mega Projects" and examples include bridges, tunnels, highways, railways, airports, seaports, power plants, dams, wastewater projects, Special Economic Zones (SEZ), oil and natural gas extraction projects, public buildings, information technology systems, aerospace projects, and weapons systems. Large consortiums consisting of public and private entities typically implement these infrastructure Mega-Projects.This paper will compare the typical design process, project management process, and work flow in the terrestrial construction industry to the space industry in order to create a better understanding between the terrestrial construction industry and the space industry, to further enable collaboration on a lunar Mega Project to build infrastructure on the Moon. In addition, a glossary of respective industry terminology with annotated linkages and definitions has been compiled. This information will enable contracts and business practices to be formulated for generating requests for proposals (RFP) by governments to consortiums consisting of construction and space industry companies that will bid on Lunar Infrastructure Projects that could lead to contracts to build the permanent capabilities.

Robert P Mueller↗

Design of a lunar transportation system

The development of a good transportation infrastructure is a major requirement for the establishment of a permanent lunar base. Transportation is characterized by the technology available in a specific time frame and the need to transport personnel and cargo between Earth and Moon, and between lunar bases. In our study, attention was first focused on developing a transportation system for the first generation lunar base. As a first step, a tracked-type multipurpose lunar transportation vehicle was considered as a possible mode of transportation and a detailed study was conducted on the various aspects of the vehicle. Since the vehicle is composed of many moving parts, exposing it to the environment of the Moon, where fine dust particles are prevalent, can cause problems associated with lubrication and friction. The vehicle also posed problems concerning weight and power. Hence, several modifications were made to the above design ideas conceptually, and a Lunar Articulated Remote Transportation System (Lunar ARTS) is proposed as a more effective alternative with the following objectives: (1) minimizing the transportation of construction material and fuel from Earth or maximizing the use of the lunar material; (2) use of novel materials and light-weight structures; (3) use of new manufacturing methods and technology such as magnetic levitation using superconducting materials; and (4) innovative concepts of effectively utilizing the exotic lunar conditions, i.e., high thermal gradients, lack of atmosphere, lower gravity, etc. To achieve the above objectives of designing transportation systems from concept to operation, the project was planned in three phases: (1) conceptual design; (2) detailed analysis and synthesis; and (3) construction, testing, evaluation, and operation. In this project, both phases 1 and 2 have been carried out and work on phase 3 is in progress. In this paper, the details of the Lunar ARTS are discussed and the future work on the vehicle are also outlined.

Sankaravelu, A.↗

Scalable Technologies Achieving Risk-Informed Condition-Based Predictive Maintenance Enhancing the Economic Performance of Operating Nuclear Power Plants

The primary objective of the research presented in this report is to develop scalable technologies that are deployable across plant assets and across the nuclear fleet to achieve risk-informed predictive maintenance (PdM) strategies at commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). Over the years, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance (PM) programs, driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high capacity factors. A well-constructed risk-informed PdM approach for an identified plant asset has been developed in this research, taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), physics-informed modeling, and visualization. These technologies would allow commercial NPPs to reliably transition from current labor-intensive PM programs to a technology driven PdM program, eliminating unnecessary O&M costs. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report (1) reflects the results of work by LWRS Program researchers with PSEG, Nuclear LLC-owned Salem and Hope Creek Nuclear Power Plants; (2) presents utilization of circulating water system (CWS) heterogeneous data and fault modes from both the Salem and Hope Creek nuclear power plant sites to develop salient fault signatures associated with each fault mode; (3) describes the integration of component-level predictive models into a robust system-level model enabled by the federated-transfer learning; (4) describes the development of physics-informed model of circulating water pump and motor; (5) develops a scalable risk and economic model; and (6) outlines the development of a user-centric visualization application. The outcomes presented in this report lays the foundation and provides a much-needed technical basis to focus on explainability and trustworthiness of ML and AI-based technologies, as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Search for Electron Neutrino Anomalies with the MicroBooNE Detector

The Micro Booster Neutrino Experiment (MicroBooNE) is a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) located in the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The experiment was devised to investigate a series of observed anomalies concerning short-baseline neutrino oscillation physics. The LArTPC technology enables the experiment to study neutrino-argon scattering with unprecedented detail.This thesis presents a cosmic-ray characterisation and rate measurement. The understanding of cosmic activity in the detector - MicroBooNE's dominant background - is then used to develop cosmic rejection tools. A flavour-agnostic neutrino selection is constructed, which forms the cornerstone of this and further analyses. Inclusive muon and electron charged-current neutrino interaction selections with unprecedented purity and efficiency are presented.The first fully-automated characterisation of electron neutrinos in a muon neutrino beam with the LArTPC detector technology is performed. The Booster Neutrino Beam has an energy peaking around 1GeV and an intrinsic electron content of approximately 0.5%. The analysis investigates electrons produced in charged-current electron neutrino interactions. The kinematics of the electrons are measured along with comparisons to simulation. Most of the systematic uncertainties are constrained using a data-driven sample of charged-current muon neutrino events. The measurement of electron neutrinos originating from the Booster Neutrino Beam is a crucial component towards understanding the nature of the observed excess of low-energy electromagnetic-like events at its predecessor, MiniBooNE.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Conceptual Design for a Blanket Tritium Extraction Test Stand

Future fusion reactors must be able to breed the tritium they will consume. Several breeding and tritium extraction technologies are under investigation internationally. PbLi is of particular interest as a breeder material. A new forced convection PbLi loop, the Tritium Extraction eXperiment (TEX), is being designed and constructed to investigate tritium extraction from PbLi. Specifically, TEX will serve to investigate the extraction efficiency of various vacuum permeator membranes and configurations. The major components of the loop include a moving magnet pump, reverse permeator, furnace test section, analysis chamber, supply tank, and plenum. As significant hazards are present in such experiments, safety is an integral focus of the experimental design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Application of selected advanced technologies to high performance, single-engine, business airplanes

Improvements in performance and fuel efficiency are evaluated for five new configurations of a six place, single turboprop, business airplane derived from a conventional, aluminum construction baseline aircraft. Results show the greatest performance gains for enhancements in natural laminar flow. A conceptual diesel engine provides greater fuel efficiency but reduced performance. Less significant effects are produced by the utilization of composite materials construction or by reconfiguration from tractor to pusher propeller installation.

Domack, C. S.↗

Subcomponent tests for composite fuselage technology readiness

An account is given of a NASA research effort aimed at the development of an all-composite transport aircraft fuselage incorporating joints and cutouts which meets all design requirements. The design, construction, and analysis activities associated with the 30-ft-long fuselage section gave attention to critically important subcomponent specimens, including shear-tee pulloff specimens, stiffened and unstiffened cutout panels, longitudinal and transverse skin splices, longeron runouts, transverse skin-longerons, stiffened shear panels, and window belt panels. The analysis of large cutouts was conducted with coupling FEM analyses incorporating accurate failure criteria for tension and shear; the strategic application of S2 glass fiber plies around cutouts was demonstrated both analytically and experimentally to increase load capacity with virtually no weight penalty.

Madan, R. C.↗

LISA Telescope Technology Development Update

A telescope for the LISA Mission is currently under development under a contract with L3Harris in Rochester, New York. The contract was kicked off March 19, 2020, and includes the design, construction and test of a Structural Thermal Model (STM), and two Engineering Development Units (EDUs). The program has just successfully passed a System Requirements Review (SRR) and is proceeding toward a Preliminary Design Review (PDR). We will describe requirements, design, and current status of the program, including some of the design challenges, some of the key trades, and some of the key interfaces.

J. Livas↗

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

Shih, Ann T.↗