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NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the Nasa Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

medical equipment↗

NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the NASA Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

risk assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Accounting for Point Estimate Uncertainty in Space Systems Reliability and Risk Analysis

Understanding and accounting for uncertainty in risk analysis is a critical step in the management and communication of risk in engineered systems. The component and system-level analysis to determine the probability of a negative outcome and its consequence is often quantified by a point estimate. Many Program and Enterprise decisions involving technical concerns and issues rely on reliability engineering activities to produce quantified risk analysis to inform the decision making process. At NASA, it is common to use a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) to inform the overall risk to Loss of Mission or Loss of Crew that involves integration across all spacecraft subsystem fault trees to produce an overall probability of mission failure. The point estimate is an estimate of this overall probability and is an immediate result of a fault tree model. It is the result of a model where the probability of each event is taken to be equal to its mean. The value provides an approximation of the overall mean without running any uncertainty calculations (e.g., no sampling). Using only the point estimate can lead to a false sense of precision and the point estimate may not match the resulting mean when uncertainty is taken into consideration. This paper will explore five conditions that can cause the PRA model mean to diverge from the point estimate and will provide engineers and managers insight into the importance of understanding uncertainty in the elements of PRA models.

Paul J Collier↗

NASA NTRS1974

The detection of fatigue cracks by nondestructive testing methods

X-radiographic penetrant, ultrasonic, eddy current, holographic, and acoustic emission techniques were optimized and applied to the evaluation of 2219-T87 aluminum alloy test specimens. One hundred eighteen specimens containing a total of 328 fatigue cracks were evaluated. The cracks ranged in length from 0.500 inch (1.27 cm) to 0.007 inch (0.018 cm) and in depth from 0.178 inch (0.451 cm) and 0.001 inch (0.003 cm). Specimen thicknesses were nominally 0.060 inch (0.152 cm) and 0.210 inch (0.532 cm) and surface finishes were nominally 32 and 125 rms and 64 and 200 rms respectively. Specimens were evaluated in the as-milled surface condition, in the chemically milled surface condition and, after proof loading, in a randomized inspection sequence. Results of the nondestructive test (NDT) evaluations were compared with actual crack size obtained by measurement of the fractured specimens. Inspection data was then analyzed to provide a statistical basis for determinating the threshold crack detection sensitivity (the largest crack size that would be missed) for each of the inspection techniques at a 95% probability and 95% confidence level.

Rummel, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Boundary layer integral matrix procedure: Verification of models

The three turbulent models currently available in the JANNAF version of the Aerotherm Boundary Layer Integral Matrix Procedure (BLIMP-J) code were studied. The BLIMP-J program is the standard prediction method for boundary layer effects in liquid rocket engine thrust chambers. Experimental data from flow fields with large edge-to-wall temperature ratios are compared to the predictions of the three turbulence models contained in BLIMP-J. In addition, test conditions necessary to generate additional data on a flat plate or in a nozzle are given. It is concluded that the Cebeci-Smith turbulence model be the recommended model for the prediction of boundary layer effects in liquid rocket engines. In addition, the effects of homogeneous chemical reaction kinetics were examined for a hydrogen/oxygen system. Results show that for most flows, kinetics are probably only significant for stoichiometric mixture ratios.

Bonnett, W. S.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Case studies of clear air turbulence using the diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency formulation

The results of four case studies of clear air turbulence (CAT) using the diagnostic Richardson number tendency (DRT) formulation are highlighted. The performance of this technique in resolving regions of documented CAT encounters is encouraging. Its operational adaptability appears particularly attractive in that input data can be supplied by the currently operational rawinsonde system. Two CAT indices are calculated deterministically, sensing synoptic scale changes in static stability and vertical wind shear conductive for supporting mesoscale CAT layers. These two indices reveal volumes of the troposphere which act as source regions for patches of CAT. The first, the time to reach the critical Richardson number necessary for the initiation of turbulent conditions, was first used by Oard (1974). A second index is devised which is an adaptation of Roach's (1970) work relating synoptic scale and mesoscale energetical coupling and gives more information on the relative intensity of these source regions. The output from the DRT computer module highlights specific regions of the atmosphere which can be interpreted operationally in terms of a CAT encounter probability.

Keller, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Rotation of Halley's comet

Numerical simulations supported by analytical calculations are used to model the suspected condition of Comet Halley's nucleus, which has been suggested to not be in a state of principal-axis rotation. It is found easy to numerically generate lightcurves from modulated jets of material which exhibit both of the observed periodicities of 2.2 and 7.4 days, after choosing initial conditions for a representative nucleus such that the shorter period is the rotation period, and the longer period is that of precession of the spin vector in the body frame-of-reference. The improbability of exciting a spin precession about the axis of minimum moment-of-inertia, the relative instability of this state to the jet-induced torques, and the smaller probability of observing significant seasonal changes in the lightcurve in this state, all favor the model in which Halley's nucleus precesses about the axis of maximum moment-of-inertia.

Peale, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Autonomous power expert system

The Autonomous Power Expert (APEX) system was designed to monitor and diagnose fault conditions that occur within the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System (SSF/EPS) Testbed. APEX is designed to interface with SSF/EPS testbed power management controllers to provide enhanced autonomous operation and control capability. The APEX architecture consists of three components: (1) a rule-based expert system, (2) a testbed data acquisition interface, and (3) a power scheduler interface. Fault detection, fault isolation, justification of probable causes, recommended actions, and incipient fault analysis are the main functions of the expert system component. The data acquisition component requests and receives pertinent parametric values from the EPS testbed and asserts the values into a knowledge base. Power load profile information is obtained from a remote scheduler through the power scheduler interface component. The current APEX design and development work is discussed. Operation and use of APEX by way of the user interface screens is also covered.

Walters, Jerry L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Performance analysis of a generalized concurrent error detection procedure

A general procedure for error detection in complex systems, called the data block capture and analysis monitoring process, is described and analyzed. It is assumed that, in addition to being exposed to potential external fault sources, a complex system will in general always contain embedded hardware and software fault mechanisms which can cause the system to perform incorrect computations and/or produce incorrect output. Thus, in operation, the system continuously moves back and forth between error and no-error states. These external fault sources or internal fault mechanisms are extremely difficult to detect. The data block capture and analysis monitoring process is concerned with detecting deviations from the normal performance of the system, known as errors, which are symptomatic of fault conditions. The process consists of repeatedly recording a fixed amount of data from a set of predetermined observation lines of the system being monitored (i.e., capturing a block of data) and then analyzing the captured block in an attempt to determine whether the system is functioning correctly. The performances of linear, quadratic, and logarithmic data analysis algorithms are rigorously characterized in terms of the probability of correctly detecting an error, the expectation and variance of the number of false alarms per error, and the expectation and variance of the latency in detection of errors. Insight into the nature of the general problem of error detection is obtained.

Blough, Douglas M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Effect of Polymer Char on Nitridation Kinetics of Silicon

Effects of polymer char on nitridation kinetics of attrition milled silicon powder have been investigated from 1200 to 1350 C. Results indicate that at and above 1250 C, the silicon compacts containing 3.5 wt percent polymer char were fully converted to Si3N4 after 24 hr exposure in nitrogen. In contrast, the silicon compacts without polymer char could not be fully converted to Si3N4 at 1350 C under similar exposure conditions. At 1250 and 1350 C, the silicon compacts with polymer char showed faster nitridation kinetics than those without the polymer char. As the polymer char content is increased, the amount of SiC in the nitrided material is also increased. By adding small amounts (approx. 2.5 wt percent) of NiO, the silicon compacts containing polymer char can be completely nitrided at 1200 C. The probable mechanism for the accelerated nitridation of silicon containing polymer char is discussed.

Chan, Rickmond C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Workshop on Parent-Body and Nebular Modification of Chondritic Materials

The purpose of the workshop was to advance our understanding of solar nebula and asteroidal processes from studies of modification features in chondrites and interplanetary dust particles. As reflected in the program contained in this volume, the workshop included five regular sessions, a summary session, and a poster session. Twenty-three posters and 42 invited and contributed talks were presented. Part 1 of this report contains the abstracts of these presentations. The focus of the workshop included: (1) mineralogical, petrologic, chemical, and isotopic observations of the alteration mineralogy in interplanetary dust particles, ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites, and their components (Ca-Al-rich inclusions, chondrules, and matrix) to constrain the conditions and place of alteration; (2) sources of water in chondrites; (3) the relationship between aqueous alteration and thermal metamorphism; (4) short-lived radionuclides, AI-26, Mn-53, and I-129, as isotopic constraints on timing of alteration; (5) experimental and theoretical modeling of alteration reactions; and (6) the oxidation state of the solar nebula. There were approximately 140 participants at the workshop, probably due in part to the timeliness of the workshop goals and the workshop location. In the end few new agreements were achieved between warring factions, but new research efforts were forged and areas of fruitful future exploration were highlighted. Judged by these results, the workshop was successful.

Krot, A. N.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Is it Possible to have the Similar Unit Cell in Crystals of Different form from the same Macromolecule? (A Case Study of Ribosome Crystals)

Three different types of ribosome crystals were grown by the vapor diffusion technique in hanging drops as described in (1,2). The ribosome is a large asymmetric RNA-protein complex (2.3 million Da), which is protein syntheses machinery of the cell. In this poster we would like to discuss the features of ribosome crystallization. Ribosomes were purified from the thermophilic bacteria Thermus thermophilus by centrifugation (3). Three types of crystals (needle, flat tetragonal and tetragonal-like pyramid) can be grown from the same solution; furthermore, in the same drop using 10-15% 2-methyl-2,4- pentanediol as a precipitant. The crystals appeared in 5-48 hours. The crystals were stable and can co-exist in solution over long period of time. The kinetics of appearance of different crystal forms was different: first the needle crystals were grown, then the tetragonal, and finally the tetragonal pyramids. Later studies of the process of ribosome crystal growth depending on supersaturation showed that low supersaturation results in the appearance of tetragonal plates or tetragonal-like pyramids. An electron microscopy study, together with computer modeling, has shown that crystals of different forms have a high probability of having the same unit cell parameters. According to these experiments the following conclusion can be dranvn: the level of supersaturation of the macromolecule in a crystallizing solution is one of the major factors for forming three-dimensional crystals convenient for X-rays diffraction analysis. From the same macromolecule solution, crystals of different forms can be grown at approximately the same conditions by varying the concentration of macromolecule in the solution. Ion-macromolecule and water-macromolecule interactions, apparently, play the main role in the formation of the unit cell of the crystals.

Karpova, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Theoretical constraints on oxygen and carbon dioxide concentrations in the Precambrian atmosphere

Simple (one-dimensional) climate models suggest that carbon dioxide concentrations during the Archean must have been at least 100-1000 times the present level to keep the Earth's surface temperature above freezing in the face of decreased solar luminosity. Such models provide only lower bounds on CO2, so it is possible that CO2 levels were substantially higher than this and that the Archean climate was much warmer than today. Periods of extensive glaciation during the early and late Proterozoic, on the other hand, indicate that the climate at these times was relatively cool. To be consistent with climate models CO2 partial pressures must have declined from approximately 0.03 to 0.3 bar around 2.5 Ga ago to between 10(-3) and 10(-2) bar at 0.8 Ga ago. This steep decrease in carbon dioxide concentrations may be inconsistent with paleosol data, which implies that pCO2 did not change appreciably during that time. Oxygen was essentially absent from the Earth's atmosphere and oceans prior to the emergence of a photosynthetic source, probably during the late Archean. During the early Proterozoic the atmosphere and surface ocean were apparently oxidizing, while the deep ocean remained reducing. An upper limit of 6 x 10(-3) bar for pO2 at this time can be derived by balancing the burial rate of organic carbon with the rate of oxidation of ferrous iron in the deep ocean. The establishment of oxidizing conditions in the deep ocean, marked by the disappearance of banded iron formations approximately 1.7 Ga ago, permitted atmospheric oxygen to climb to its present level. O2 concentrations may have remained substantially lower than today, however, until well into the Phanerozoic.

Review, Tutorial↗

NASA NTRS1995

Influence of variable rates of neritic carbonate deposition on atmospheric carbon dioxide and pelagic sediments

Short-term imbalances in the global cycle of shallow water calcium carbonate deposition and dissolution may be responsible for much of the observed Pleistocene change in atmospheric carbon dioxide content. However, any proposed changes in the alkalinity balance of the ocean must be reconciled with the sedimentary record of deep-sea carbonates. The possible magnitude of the effect of shallow water carbonate deposition on the dissolution of pelagic carbonate can be tested using numerical simulations of the global carbon cycle. Boundary conditions can be defined by using extant shallow water carbonate accumulation data and pelagic carbonate deposition/dissolution data. On timescales of thousands of years carbonate deposition versus dissolution is rarely out of equilibrium by more than 1.5 x 10(13) mole yr-1. Results indicate that the carbonate chemistry of the ocean is rarely at equilibrium on timescales less than 10 ka. This disequilibrium is probably due to sea level-induced changes in shallow water calcium carbonate deposition/dissolution, an interpretation that does not conflict with pelagic sedimentary data from the central Pacific.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2005

Implementing Recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board - Development of on-Orbit RCC Thermography

One of NASA s Space Shuttle Return-to-Flight (RTF) efforts has been to develop thermography for the on-orbit inspection of the Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) portion of the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge (WLE). This paper addresses the capability of thermography to detect cracks in RCC by using in-plane thermal gradients that naturally occur on-orbit. Crack damage, which can result from launch debris impact, is a detection challenge for other on-orbit sensors under consideration for RTF, such as the Intensified Television Camera and Laser Dynamic Range Imager. We studied various cracks in RCC, both natural and simulated, along with material characteristics, such as emissivity uniformity, in steady-state thermography. Severity of crack, such as those likely and unlikely to cause burn through were tested, both in-air and in-vacuum, and the goal of this procedure was to assure crew and vehicle safety during re-entry by identification and quantification of a damage condition while on-orbit. Expected thermal conditions are presented in typical shuttle orbits, and the expected damage signatures for each scenario are presented. Finally, through statistical signal detection, our results show that even at very low in-plane thermal gradients, we are able to detect damage at or below the threshold for fatality in the most critical sections of the WLE, with a confidence exceeding 1 in 10,000 probability of false negative.

Ottens, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2005

Implementing Recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board: Development of On-Orbit IR Thermography

One of NASA's Space Shuttle Return-to-Flight (RTF) efforts has been to develop thermography for the on-orbit inspection of the Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) portion of the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge (WLE). This paper addresses the capability of thermography to detect cracks in RCC by using in-plane thermal gradients that naturally occur on-orbit. Crack damage, which can result from launch debris impact, is a detection challenge for other on-orbit sensors under consideration for RTF, such as the Intensified Television Camera and Laser Dynamic Range Imager. We studied various cracks in RCC, both natural and simulated, along with material characteristics, such as emissivity uniformity, in steady-state thermography. Severity of crack, such as those likely and unlikely to cause burn through were tested, both in-air and in-vacuum, and the goal of this procedure was to assure crew and vehicle safety during reentry by identification and quantification of a damage condition while on-orbit. Expected thermal conditions are presented in typical shuttle orbits, and the expected damage signatures for each scenario are presented. Finally, through statistical signal detection, our results show that even at very low in-plane thermal gradients, we are able to detect damage at or below the threshold for fatality in the most critical sections of the WLE, with a confidence exceeding 1 in 10,000 probability of false negative.

Ottens, Brian P.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Analytic Development of a Reference Profile for the First Entry in a Skip Atmospheric Entry

This note shows that a feasible reference drag profile for the first entry portion of a skip entry can be generated as a polynomial expression of the velocity. The coefficients of that polynomial are found through the resolution of a system composed of m + 1 equations, where m is the degree of the drag polynomial. It has been shown that a minimum of five equations (m = 4) are required to establish the range and the initial and final conditions on velocity and flight path angle. It has been shown that at least one constraint on the trajectory can be imposed through the addition of one extra equation in the system, which must be accompanied by the increase in the degree of the drag polynomial. In order to simplify the resolution of the system of equations, the drag was considered as being a probability density function of the velocity, with the velocity as a distribution function of the drag. Combining this notion with the introduction of empirically derived constants, it has been shown that the system of equations required to generate the drag profile can be successfully reduced to a system of linear algebraic equations. For completeness, the resulting drag profiles have been flown using the feedback linearization method of differential geometric control as a guidance law with the error dynamics of a second order homogeneous equation in the form of a damped oscillator. Satisfactory results were achieved when the gains in the error dynamics were changed at a certain point along the trajectory that is dependent on the velocity and the curvature of the drag as a function of the velocity. Future work should study the capacity to update the drag profile in flight when dispersions are introduced. Also, future studies should attempt to link the first entry, as presented and controlled in this note, with a more standard control concept for the second entry, such as the Apollo entry guidance, to try to assess the overall skip entry performance. A guidance law that includes an integral feedback term, as is the case in the actual Space Shuttle entry guidance and as is proposed in Ref 29, could be tried in future studies to assess whether its use results in an improvement of the tracking performance, and to evaluate the design needs when determining the control gains.

Garcia-Llama, Eduardo↗

NASA NTRS2012

Validation of MODIS FLH and In Situ Chlorophyll a from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA)

Satellite observation of phytoplankton concentration or chlorophyll-a (chla) is an important characteristic, critically integral to monitoring coastal water quality. However, the optical properties of estuarine and coastal waters are highly variable and complex and pose a great challenge for accurate analysis. Constituents such as suspended solids and dissolved organic matter and the overlapping and uncorrelated absorptions in the blue region of the spectrum renders the blue-green ratio algorithms for estimating chl-a inaccurate. Measurement of suninduced chlorophyll fluorescence, on the other hand, which utilizes the near infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum may, provide a better estimate of phytoplankton concentrations. While modelling and laboratory studies have illustrated both the utility and limitations of satellite algorithms based on the sun induced chlorophyll fluorescence signal, few have examined the empirical validity of these algorithms or compared their accuracy against bluegreen ratio algorithms . In an unprecedented analysis using a long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data set from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA), we assess the validity of the FLH product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer against a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout this large optically complex estuarine system. . Overall, the results show a 106% increase in the validity of chla concentration estimation using FLH over the standard chla estimate from the blue-green OC3M algorithm. Additionally, a systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the FLH product responds to varying conditions in the estuary and correlations are conducted to see how the relationships between satellite FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a change with depth, distance from shore, from structures like bridges, and nutrient concentrations and turbidity. Such analysis illustrates that the correlations between FLH and in situ chla measurements increases with increasing distance between monitoring sites and structures like bridges and shore. Due probably to confounding factors, expected improvement in the FLH- chla relationship was not clearly noted when increasing depth and distance from shore alone (not including bridges). Correlations between turbidity and nutrient concentrations are discussed further and principle component analyses are employed to address the relationships between the multivariate data sets. A thorough understanding of how satellite FLH algorithms relate to in situ water quality parameters will enhance our understanding of how MODIS s global FLH algorithm can be used empirically to monitor coastal waters worldwide.

Fischer, Andrew↗