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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1975

Use of the LANDSAT-2 Data Collection System in the Colorado River Basin Weather Modification Program

The author has identified the following significant results. The operation of the LANDSAT data collection system on the Colorado River Basin pilot project during the 1974-75 winter season demonstrated that it is a practical means to obtain accurate data in near real-time to aid in forecasting and control of weather modification operations. Tests of the two prototype wind averaging systems have shown that wind data can be averaged and stored on-site for a period of eight hours prior to transmission through the LANDSAT DCS. These averaged wind data will be much more useful in operational programs than instantaneous values.

Kahan, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The analysis of rapidly developing fog at the Kennedy Space Center

This report documents fog precursors and fog climatology at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Florida from 1986 to 1990. The major emphasis of this report focuses on rapidly developing fog events that would affect the less than 7-statute mile visibility rule for End-Of-Mission (EOM) Shuttle landing at KSC (Rule 4-64(A)). The Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU's) work is to: develop a data base for study of fog associated weather conditions relating to violations of this landing constraint; develop forecast techniques or rules-of-thumb to determine whether or not current conditions are likely to result in an acceptable condition at landing; validate the forecast techniques; and transition techniques to operational use. As part of the analysis the fog events were categorized as either advection, pre-frontal or radiation. As a result of these analyses, the AMU developed a fog climatological data base, identified fog precursors and developed forecaster tools and decision trees. The fog climatological analysis indicates that during the fog season (October to April) there is a higher risk for a visibility violation at KSC during the early morning hours (0700 to 1200 UTC), while 95 percent of all fog events have dissipated by 1600 UTC. A high number of fog events are characterized by a westerly component to the surface wind at KSC (92 percent) and 83 percent of the fog events had fog develop west of KSC first (up to 2 hours). The AMU developed fog decision trees and forecaster tools that would help the forecaster identify fog precursors up to 12 hours in advance. Using the decision trees as process tools ensures the important meteorological data are not overlooked in the forecast process. With these tools and a better understanding of fog formation in the local KSC area, the Shuttle weather support forecaster should be able to give the Launch and Flight Directors a better KSC fog forecast with more confidence.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

STS-97 Countdown Status

Joel Wells, NASA Public Affairs, introduces Steve Altemus, NASA Test Director, David Flowers, P-6 Truss Integration Engineer, and Ed Priselac, Shuttle Weather Officer. Mr. Altemus describes the successful countdown thus far, and some of the prelaunch activities. Mr. Flowers gives an overview of the P-6 Truss and its role on the International Space Station (ISS). Mr. Priselac gives a forecast for good launching weather. The men then answer questions from the press.

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NASA NTRS1988

Meteorological and Environmental Inputs to Aviation Systems

Reports on aviation meteorology, most of them informal, are presented by representatives of the National Weather Service, the Bracknell (England) Meteorological Office, the NOAA Wave Propagation Lab., the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, and the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association. Additional presentations are included on aircraft/lidar turbulence comparison, lightning detection and locating systems, objective detection and forecasting of clear air turbulence, comparative verification between the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Model and official aviation terminal forecasts, the evaluation of the Prototype Regional Observation and Forecast System (PROFS) mesoscale weather products, and the FAA/MIT Lincoln Lab. Doppler Weather Radar Program.

Camp, Dennis W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Space Technology Draft Roadmap Area 13: Ground and Launch Systems Processing

This slide presentation reviews the technology development roadmap for the area of ground and launch systems processing. The scope of this technology area includes: (1) Assembly, integration, and processing of the launch vehicle, spacecraft, and payload hardware (2) Supply chain management (3) Transportation of hardware to the launch site (4) Transportation to and operations at the launch pad (5) Launch processing infrastructure and its ability to support future operations (6) Range, personnel, and facility safety capabilities (7) Launch and landing weather (8) Environmental impact mitigations for ground and launch operations (9) Launch control center operations and infrastructure (10) Mission integration and planning (11) Mission training for both ground and flight crew personnel (12) Mission control center operations and infrastructure (13) Telemetry and command processing and archiving (14) Recovery operations for flight crews, flight hardware, and returned samples. This technology roadmap also identifies ground, launch and mission technologies that will: (1) Dramatically transform future space operations, with significant improvement in life-cycle costs (2) Improve the quality of life on earth, while exploring in co-existence with the environment (3) Increase reliability and mission availability using low/zero maintenance materials and systems, comprehensive capabilities to ascertain and forecast system health/configuration, data integration, and the use of advanced/expert software systems (4) Enhance methods to assess safety and mission risk posture, which would allow for timely and better decision making. Several key technologies are identified, with a couple of slides devoted to one of these technologies (i.e., corrosion detection and prevention). Development of these technologies can enhance life on earth and have a major impact on how we can access space, eventually making routine commercial space access and improve building and manufacturing, and weather forecasting for example for the effect of these process improvements on our daily lives.

Clements, Greg↗
NASA NTRS1990

Meteorological Instruction Software

At Florida State University and the Naval Postgraduate School, meteorology students have the opportunity to apply theoretical studies to current weather phenomena, even prepare forecasts and see how their predictions stand up utilizing GEMPAK. GEMPAK can display data quickly in both conventional and non-traditional ways, allowing students to view multiple perspectives of the complex three-dimensional atmospheric structure. With GEMPAK, mathematical equations come alive as students do homework and laboratory assignments on the weather events happening around them. Since GEMPAK provides data on a 'today' basis, each homework assignment is new. At the Naval Postgraduate School, students are now using electronically-managed environmental data in the classroom. The School's Departments of Meteorology and Oceanography have developed the Interactive Digital Environment Analysis (IDEA) Laboratory. GEMPAK is the IDEA Lab's general purpose display package; the IDEA image processing package is a modified version of NASA's Device Management System. Bringing the graphic and image processing packages together is NASA's product, the Transportable Application Executive (TAE).

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NASA NTRS2003

Variational Continuous Assimilation of TMI and SSM/I Rain Rates: Impact on GEOS-3 Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

We describe a variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall data using moisture and temperature tendency corrections as the control variable to offset model deficiencies. For rainfall assimilation, model errors are of special concern since model-predicted precipitation is based on parameterized moist physics, which can have substantial systematic errors. This study examines whether a VCA scheme using the forecast model as a weak constraint offers an effective pathway to precipitation assimilation. The particular scheme we exarnine employs a '1+1' dimension precipitation observation operator based on a 6-h integration of a column model of moist physics from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system DAS). In earlier studies, we tested a simplified version of this scheme and obtained improved monthly-mean analyses and better short-range forecast skills. This paper describes the full implementation ofthe 1+1D VCA scheme using background and observation error statistics, and examines how it may improve GEOS analyses and forecasts of prominent tropical weather systems such as hurricanes. Parallel assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd show that assimilating 6-h TMI and SSM/I surfice rain rates leads to more realistic storm features in the analysis, which, in turn, provide better initial conditions for 5-day storm track prediction and precipitation forecast. These results provide evidence that addressing model deficiencies in moisture tendency may be crucial to making effective use of precipitation information in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2015

High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup for the Eastern Range and Wallops Flight Facility

Mesoscale weather conditions can have an adverse effect on space launch, landing, ground processing, and weather advisories, watches, and warnings at the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in Virginia. During summer, land-sea interactions across Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lead to sea breeze front formation, which can spawn deep convection that can hinder operations and endanger personnel and resources. Many other weak locally-driven low-level boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze front and each other can also initiate deep convection in the KSC/CCAFS area. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the local forecasters. Surface winds during the transition seasons (spring and fall) pose the most difficulties for the forecasters at WFF. They also encounter problems forecasting convective activity and temperature during those seasons. Therefore, accurate mesoscale model forecasts are needed to better forecast a variety of unique weather phenomena. Global and national scale models cannot properly resolve important local-scale weather features at each location due to their horizontal resolutions being much too coarse. Therefore, a properly tuned local data assimilation (DA) and forecast model at a high resolution is needed to provide improved capability. To accomplish this, a number of sensitivity tests were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to determine the best DA/model configuration for operational use at each of the space launch ranges to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature. A set of Perl scripts to run the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)/WRF in real-time were provided by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT). The GSI can analyze many types of observational data including satellite, radar, and conventional data. The GSI/WRF scripts use a cycled GSI system similar to the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The scripts run a 12-hour pre-cycle in which data are assimilated from 12 hours prior up to the model initialization time. A number of different model configurations were tested for both the ER and WFF by varying the horizontal resolution on which the data assimilation was done. Three different grid configurations were run for the ER and two configurations were run for WFF for archive cases from 27 Aug 2013 through 10 Nov 2013. To quantify model performance, standard model output will be compared to the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) data. The MADIS observation data will be compared to the WRF forecasts using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package. In addition, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Stage IV precipitation data will be used to validate the WRF precipitation forecasts. The author will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for each space launch range.

Watson, Leela R.↗
NASA NTRS1975

SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 8: Ocean fishing case study

The potential application of SEASAT data with regard to ocean fisheries is discussed. Tracking fish populations, indirect assistance in forecasting expected populations and assistance to fishing fleets in avoiding costs incurred due to adverse weather through improved ocean conditions forecasts were investigated. Case studies on fisheries in the United States and Canada are cited.

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NASA NTRS1987

Precipitation factors leading to arc cloud formation

The combined efforts of three graduate students and the principal investigator are presented. Satellite observations and interpretation have become increasingly important in the areas of weather research and operational forecasting. One reason is that geostationary satellite imagery is the only meteorological observing tool that can follow the evolution of clouds from the synoptic scale down to the cumulas scale. Therefore, it can depict atmospheric activity which is up to two orders of magnitude smaller than can be resolved by conventional meteorological observations. This unique ability of the satellite provides the meteorologist a mechanism to infer weather events down to the mesoscale. This evolution is the subject of this report.

Brundidge, Kenneth C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Improved Use of Satellite Imagery to Forecast Hurricanes

This project tested a novel method that uses satellite imagery to correct phase errors in the initial state for numerical weather prediction, applied to hurricane forecasts. The system was tested on hurricanes Guillermo (1997), Felicia (1997) and Iniki (1992). We compared the performance of the system with and without phase correction to a procedure that uses bogus data in the initial state, similar to current operational procedures. The phase correction keeps the hurricane on track in the analysis and is far superior to a system without phase correction. Compared to operational procedure, phase correction generates somewhat worse 3-day forecast of the hurricane track, but better forecast of intensity. It is believed that the phase correction module would work best in the context of 4-dimensional variational data assimilation. Very little modification to 4DVar would be required.

Louis, Jean-Francois↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Objective Verification of the North American Mesoscale Model for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point, as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. Objective statistics will give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strength and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS2009

Observation Denial and Performance of a Local Mesoscale Model

.Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) wind tower network and the CCAFS (XMR) daily rawinsonde observations (RAOB) to issue and verify wind advisories and warnings for operations. These observations are also used by the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) in Houston, Texas and the NWS Melbourne, Florida (NWS MLB) to initialize their locally-run mesoscale models. In addition, SMG uses these observations to support shuttle landings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). Due to impending budget cuts, some or all of the wind towers on the east-central Florida mainland and the XMR RAOBs may be eliminated. The locations of the mainland towers and XMR RAOB site are shown in Figure 1. The loss of these data may impact the forecast capability of the 45 WS, SMG and NWS MLB.

Watson, Leela R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Satellite freeze forecast system: Executive summary

A satellite-based temperature monitoring and prediction system consisting of a computer controlled acquisition, processing, and display system and the ten automated weather stations called by that computer was developed and transferred to the national weather service. This satellite freeze forecasting system (SFFS) acquires satellite data from either one of two sources, surface data from 10 sites, displays the observed data in the form of color-coded thermal maps and in tables of automated weather station temperatures, computes predicted thermal maps when requested and displays such maps either automatically or manually, archives the data acquired, and makes comparisons with historical data. Except for the last function, SFFS handles these tasks in a highly automated fashion if the user so directs. The predicted thermal maps are the result of two models, one a physical energy budget of the soil and atmosphere interface and the other a statistical relationship between the sites at which the physical model predicts temperatures and each of the pixels of the satellite thermal map.

Martsolf, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Prototype Local Data Integration System and Central Florida Data Deficiency

This report describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) task on the Local Data Integration System (LDIS) and central Florida data deficiency. The objectives of the task are to identify all existing meteorological data sources within 250 km of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Eastern Range at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS), identify and configure an appropriate LDIS to integrate these data, and implement a working prototype to be used for limited case studies and data non-incorporation (DNI) experiments. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS MLB) operational requirements. The LDIS has the potential to provide added value for nowcasts and short term forecasts for two reasons. First, it incorporates all data operationally available in east central Florida. Second, it is run at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than current national-scale operational models. In combination with a suitable visualization tool, LDIS may provide users with a more complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time. The utility of LDIS depends largely on the reliability and availability of observational data. Therefore, it is important to document all existing meteorological data sources around central Florida that can be incorporated by it. Several factors contribute to the data density and coverage over east central Florida including the level in the atmosphere, distance from KSC/CCAS, time, and prevailing weather. The central Florida mesonet consists of existing surface meteorological and hydrological data available from the Tampa NWS and data servers at Miami and Jacksonville. However the utility of these data for operational use is limited, mainly because there are relatively few additional meteorological observations within 50 km of KSC/CCAS to supplement existing METAR and KSC/CCAS tower reports.

Manobianco, John↗
NASA NTRS2020

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River–Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the United States. Along the coast of Oregon and Washington, the most intense cool season precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides and flooding. It is therefore important to understand the large scale influence on extreme AR events so that they can be accurately predicted on timescales ranging from numerical weather prediction to seasonal forecasts. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in observed extreme precipitation events are compared to typical ARs on the coast of Washington State using data from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2. In addition to more intense water vapor transport, notable differences in the synoptic scale forcing are present during extreme precipitation events that are not present during typical AR events. In particular, an anomalously deep low pressure system is stationed to the west in the Gulf of Alaska, alongside a jet streak overhead. Attention will also be given to subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns that are known to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. While little influence can be seen from the phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Pacific North American Pattern, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) can play a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated with in AR on the Washington Coast. Lastly, interactions between the MJO and other teleconnection patterns will be explored to determine key features that should be investigated when making subseasonal predictions for AR activity and the associated precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

Collow, Allison↗
NASA NTRS1984

The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service

The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourn, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May-September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC (0700 AM EST) each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to increase consistency between forecasters while enabling them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) for which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data. The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at the two organizations provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU. The densities were first stratified by flow regime, then by time in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for each stratification and grid box by counting the number of days with lightning and dividing by the total number of days in the data set. New CG strike densities were calculated for each stratification and grid box by summing the strike number values over all warm seasons, then normalized by dividing the summed values by the number of lightning days. This makes the densities conditional on whether lightning occurred. The frequency climatology values will be used by forecasters as proxy inputs for lightning prObability, while the density climatology values will be used for CG amount. In addition to the benefits outlined above, these climatologies will provide improved temporal and spatial resolution, expansion of the lightning threat area to include adjacent coastal waters, and potential to extend the forecast to include the day-2 period. This presentation will describe the lightning threat index map, discuss the work done to create the maps initialized with climatological guidance, and show examples of the climatological CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurren based on flow regime.

Lambert, Winnie↗