PROSPECTS FOR EARLY MANNED INTERPLANETARY FLIGHTS
Preliminary analysis of early interplanetary flyby and capture missions to evaluate launch year variation, trip duration, propulsion systems, and entry modes
INTERPLANETARY FLIGHT↗
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Results for “Variational analysis”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Interdecadal Variations in the Alaska Gyre
Climatic dynamic topography variations in the Alaska gyre during the period 1968-1990 are described with an objective analysis of more than 12000 STD and XBT stations, and COADS wind stress data Interannual the dynamic height and SST variations were correlated and were consistent with recently described large-scale climatic shifts in the North Pacific. The gyre was centered more to the east, circulation appeared stronger, and SST was lower during the early to mid-1970s than during the 1980s. The Aleutian low (NP and PNA indices) intensified during the interim, but the response did not appear as a gyre spinup. Instead, the associated wind stress anomalies forced a slowly varying dynamic height anomaly across the eastern and northern part of the gyre through Ekman convergence, which had the effect of displacing the gyre's low somewhat to the WSW in the 1980s. The wind curl spectrum was white, and the slow oceanic response was modeled as stochastic-forced climate variability with a simple first-order Markov autoregression process. Forcing was assumed to be Ekman pumping of the pycnocline, and the damping coefficient was estimated from the data to be approx. 1 yr. A hindcast with observed winds gave estimated dynamic height patterns similar to those observed, with a canonical correlation of 0.79 at 99% confidence. This response was weak in the western half of the gyre, where slow baroclinic variability may have been influenced by long Rossby wave propagation. A simple autoregression simulation using artificial white noise forcing shows the evolution of decadal variations similar in nature to those observed. This result, along with the low frequency correlation between dynamic height and SST, suggests that the upper-ocean climatic variability in this region is primarily wind forced.
Lagerloef, Gary S.E.↗
Separating the Chemical and Dynamical Contributions to the Ozone Change
Statistical analysis is used to extract the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric chlorine due to emissions of chlorofluorcarbons from the observed ozone record. The statistical analysis relies on a model that accounts for natural variations in ozone including the seasonal cycle, the solar cycle, variations in aerosols due to volcanic eruption, and the quasi- biennial oscillation, A noise term includes contributions to ozone variability due to inter-annual variability in the stratospheric circulation not due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, The residual circulation varies due to variability in planetary wave forcing, and studies using meteorological analyses show that the build-up of ozone over the winter is correlated with the planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux. This variability in the residual circulation is not included in the statistical model, and contributes to the apparent ozone sensitivity to chlorine derived from observations for 1979 - 2000. We have investigated these relationships using multi-decadal simulations of our off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM). Our simulations use meteorological fields output from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model (GCM). A 50 climatology specifies the sea surface temperatures to produce the GCM simulation. The CTM was used with these winds to produce two simulations, one in which the boundary conditions for chlorofluorcarbons and other source gases vary as specified for 1973-2022 by the Scenario A2 of the World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment, and the second with source gases fixed to their 1979 values. The same statistical analysis used to derive trends from observations is applied to the CTM output. When applied to the difference between the two simulations the statistical analysis provides a more precise measure of the ozone sensitivity to chlorine change. We are testing ways of including the interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model so that we can derive the same result from the Scenario A2 simulation as is obtained when the statistical analysis is applied to the difference between the two simulations. This should provide direction as to how to account for the changes in ozone due to interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model that is applied to the observed data record.
Douglass, Anne R.↗
Analysis of various two synodic period Earth-Mars cycler trajectories
Trajectories that regularly encounter Earth and Mars but use small or no propulsive maneuvers are known as cycler trajectories, or cyclers. For cyclers that repeat after two Earth-Mars synodic periods, several variations are possible. A detailed investigation is presented of a simple two synodic period cycler, along with several promising variations using combinations of one year and half-year phasing orbits. Analysis is included for both the circular co-planar model and with actual Earth and Mars ephemerides.
trajectory cycler repeat orbits↗
Rapid recovery from the Late Ordovician mass extinction
Understanding the evolutionary role of mass extinctions requires detailed knowledge of postextinction recoveries. However, most models of recovery hinge on a direct reading of the fossil record, and several recent studies have suggested that the fossil record is especially incomplete for recovery intervals immediately after mass extinctions. Here, we analyze a database of genus occurrences for the paleocontinent of Laurentia to determine the effects of regional processes on recovery and the effects of variations in preservation and sampling intensity on perceived diversity trends and taxonomic rates during the Late Ordovician mass extinction and Early Silurian recovery. After accounting for variation in sampling intensity, we find that marine benthic diversity in Laurentia recovered to preextinction levels within 5 million years, which is nearly 15 million years sooner than suggested by global compilations. The rapid turnover in Laurentia suggests that processes such as immigration may have been particularly important in the recovery of regional ecosystems from environmental perturbations. However, additional regional studies and a global analysis of the Late Ordovician mass extinction that accounts for variations in sampling intensity are necessary to confirm this pattern. Because the record of Phanerozoic mass extinctions and postextinction recoveries may be compromised by variations in preservation and sampling intensity, all should be reevaluated with sampling-standardized analyses if the evolutionary role of mass extinctions is to be fully understood.
Evolution↗
Integration of Off-Track Sonic Boom Analysis in Conceptual Design of Supersonic Aircraft
A highly desired capability for the conceptual design of aircraft is the ability to rapidly and accurately evaluate new concepts to avoid adverse trade decisions that may hinder the development process in the later stages of design. Evaluating the robustness of new low-boom concepts is important for the conceptual design of supersonic aircraft. Here, robustness means that the aircraft configuration has a low-boom ground signature at both under- and off-track locations. An integrated process for off-track boom analysis is developed to facilitate the design of robust low-boom supersonic aircraft. The integrated off-track analysis can also be used to study the sonic boom impact and to plan future flight trajectories where flight conditions and ground elevation might have a significant effect on ground signatures. The key enabler for off-track sonic boom analysis is accurate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solutions for off-body pressure distributions. To ensure the numerical accuracy of the off-body pressure distributions, a mesh study is performed with Cart3D to determine the mesh requirements for off- body CFD analysis and comparisons are made between the Cart3D and USM3D results. The variations in ground signatures that result from changes in the initial location of the near-field waveform are also examined. Finally, a complete under- and off-track sonic boom analysis is presented for two distinct supersonic concepts to demonstrate the capability of the integrated analysis process.
Ordaz, Irian↗
A Knowledge Graph Framework for Organizing Heterogeneous Datasets for Utilization in Classical and Quantum Computing: Current Challenges and Future Directions
"The escalating impact of climate change induced extreme weather events in urban, suburban, and rural environments demands a rethink of how we have been using the single event-based or use-case-based knowledge graph models. The lack of representation in interaction within environmental variables found in literature led to the development of a novel framework that reflects the true nature of the interconnectedness in our environment. We propose an Environmental Interaction Knowledge Graph (EIKG) framework. This general EIKG framework works as the basis for interconnected environmental events by knitting interrelated events such as hurricanes leading to storm surges, which lead to flood events that could cause mudslides, landslides, etc., The cascading nature of one event leading to another related event in the environment requires an adequate understanding of each event using contextual information before conducting any data-driven analytics. This vision paper showcases how the EIKG:floods, EIKG:wildfire EIKG:landslides, etc, can be derived from a base case framework of EIKG as those individual events are interconnected with some common denominator variables. As an example, the precipitation variable is used in the flood case study as well as in the wildfire case study, as excessive precipitation levels lead to floods, and lack of precipitation leads to droughts and wildfires. We identify the precipitation variable as a “common-denominator-variable” in extreme weather events that play a key role in modeling the environment leading to different extreme weather events based on the variability of that variable (varying values where low precipitation leads to drought, and high values lead to floods). We use the insights gained from EIKG to conduct classical and Quantum Machine Learning (QML) based data analysis on the research questions developed. Our preliminary study shows how the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) and Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) are used along with the classical machine learning models to compare the model accuracies. Our study elaborates on how a quantitative analysis uses state-of-the-art machine learning techniques that include implementing both classical and quantum machine learning models and developing the knowledge graph. The EIKG is used to organize heterogeneous datasets and integrate the relations to case-specific extreme weather events such as floods. The study uses datasets such as county-to-country residential mobility data, socioeconomic datasets from the US Census Bureau, climate and weather-related Earth Observational data from NASA, and critical infrastructure data from the Homeland Infrastructure datasets."
Knowledge Graphs, Quantum Computing, Heterogenous ↗
Cluster analysis of occupancy schedules in residential buildings in the United States
The energy performance of residential buildings significantly depends on the building occupants’ behavior, which can be highly variable. When the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system is controlled based on the presence or absence of occupants in a building, occupant behavior is of even further importance to its energy performance. In current practice, building energy simulation tools generally use a single occupancy profile to represent the building’s occupancy schedule, the schedule of which is considered to be the same, regardless of the type of household being modeled. Thus, there is significant potential for improvement to allow for more flexibility and accuracy in calculation of occupancy. The objective of this study is to assess the variations in the typical types of occupancy schedules followed by the U.S. population using cluster analysis. American Time Use Survey data, which statically represents the overall U.S. population’s activities, across 12 years (2006–2017), is used. The ATUS data is segregated into smaller groups based on age and weekday/weekend, then divided into activities that are considered “at home” and “away from home”, which are mapped to the presence or non-presence of occupants in the home. Cluster analysis is then used to identify common types of occupancy schedule patterns for each age group. Three main types of patterns are obtained from cluster analysis for each age group, which together represent approximately 88% of people in the United States. The output of the cluster analysis is further analyzed to evaluate the variation in characteristics, including the number of times leaving home, time of day when leaving the home, and the timespan of absence from the home. The results of this study provide detailed insights on how typical occupants in the United States spend their time in residential spaces which can be used to create occupancy profiles for residential buildings. Finally, these occupancy profiles could be utilized inform an assessment of the energy use impact of occupancy-based controls of energy consuming systems and technologies.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Infrared photometric behavior and opposition effect of Mars
Although the instrument wasn't designed for this purpose, data from the imaging spectrometer ISM may be used for studying photometric variations of Mars reflectance, that are related to the surface materials and aerosols physical properties. ISM flew aboard the Phobos-2 spacecraft which orbited Mars from January to March, 1989. About 40,000 spectra were acquired in 128 channels ranging from 0.76 to 3.16 micro-m, with a spatial resolution of 25 km and a signal-to-noise ratio ranging up to 1000. Analysis of the results leads to the following conclusions: width variations of the opposition surge can be related to differences in porosity or grain size distribution on the various domains, with little or no effect from suspended dust. As the biggest effects are observed on dark and bright materials, intermediate behaviors on average-bright regions cannot result from a mixing process, but are more likely to come from either cementation processes or modification of the grain size distribution under the influence of wind, which under Martian conditions preferentially removes the biggest particles. Thus, a surface dust consisting in big bright and small dark grains could explain the observations.
Erard, S.↗
Investigation of the Martian environment by infrared spectroscopy on Mariner 9.
Preliminary analysis of Mariner 9 IR spectroscopic data through May 1972 shows spectral features due to carbon dioxide, water vapor, and silicate dust suspended in the atmosphere. Measurements obtained during and after the planet-wide dust storm indicate that large diurnal variations in atmospheric temperature existed up to at least 30 km. Analysis of spectral features due to the atmospheric dust provides a SiO2 content of 60 (plus or minus 10)%, implying substantial geochemical differentiation. Water vapor estimates yield abundances of 10 to 20 precipitable microns, and no water vapor was detected over the north polar region.
Hanel, R.↗
Toward Coupled Data Assimilation in NASA’s GEOS: Developments in the Ocean Context
The Global Modeling & Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA GSFC produces analyses and predictions of the Earth system using various configurations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and assimilation system. The current sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction system (GEOS-S2S) is based on a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice configuration of GEOS which includes the Modular Ocean Model version 5 (MOM5) run at approximately 50-km resolution and a de-coupled OI-based ocean analysis that uses an initialization of MOM5 forced by the MERRA-2 reanalysis. GMAO will soon implement an updated GEOS-S2S system that will run at 25-km resolution and adopt aspects of the hybrid four-dimensional ensemble-variational (H4DEnVar) system already running in the production-version atmospheric analysis system, including a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to provide initial conditions for the oceanic state. This presentation will focus on developments to sustain the GMAO's systems on longer time horizons, where more radical transformations will be required to adapt to advanced computing environments, higher resolution and more diverse model components, and new observations for the Earth system. Results will describe progress toward a version of the GEOS coupled system that will be based around the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) framework being developed within Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) and include an updated ocean model, MOM6. Discussion will focus specifically on the use of a Unified Forward Operator (UFO) for simulating observations and the Object Oriented Prediction System (OOPS) for providing the state estimate. These features are being developed as a multi-agency effort under the auspices of the JCSDA and are being adopted in the GMAO for all its applications of coupled data assimilation including S2S, numerical weather prediction, and reanalysis.
Mahajan, Rahul↗
Interactively Assessing Disentanglement in GANs
Abstract Generative adversarial networks (GAN) have witnessed tremendous growth in recent years, demonstrating wide applicability in many domains. However, GANs remain notoriously difficult for people to interpret, particularly for modern GANs capable of generating photo‐realistic imagery. In this work we contribute a visual analytics approach for GAN interpretability, where we focus on the analysis and visualization of GAN disentanglement. Disentanglement is concerned with the ability to control content produced by a GAN along a small number of distinct, yet semantic, factors of variation. The goal of our approach is to shed insight on GAN disentanglement, above and beyond coarse summaries, instead permitting a deeper analysis of the data distribution modeled by a GAN. Our visualization allows one to assess a single factor of variation in terms of groupings and trends in the data distribution, where our analysis seeks to relate the learned representation space of GANs with attribute‐based semantic scoring of images produced by GANs. Through use‐cases, we show that our visualization is effective in assessing disentanglement, allowing one to quickly recognize a factor of variation and its overall quality. In addition, we show how our approach can highlight potential dataset biases learned by GANs.
Jeong, Sangwon↗
OH radio observations of comets P/Brorsen-Metcalf (1989o), Okazaki-Levy-Rudenko (1989r), Aarseth-Brewington (1989a1), and Austin (1989c1) at the Nancay radio telescope
The 1667 MHz and 1665 MHz transitions of the OH radical were recently monitored in several comets with the Nancay radio telescope: P/Brorsen-Metcalf (1989o) (August 4 to October 31, 1989), Okazaki-Levy-Rudenko (1989r) (October 3 to December 2, 1989), Aarseth-Brewington (1989a1) (December 8 to 30, 1989), and Austin (1989c1) (February 15 to June 14, 1990). Present gas expansion measurements obtained from the analysis of the line shapes are presented and the long term variations of the water production rate, as measured from the OH radio lines. On October 13, 1989, the occultation of a background source by comet Okazaki-Levy-Rudenko (1989r) was fortuitously observed. A preliminary report of this observation is given. Further analysis of the data is continuing.
Bockelee-Morvan, D.↗
Development of Dynamic Sub-Grid Models for Variational Multiscale Methods
A dynamic Variational Multiscale Method (Hughes et al. 1998) is developed by leveraging the Germano procedure from classical Large-eddy Simulations (LES). The similarity between the classical and variational approaches is analyzed in the context of incompressible flow. This analysis leads to a consistent modeling approach for both incompressible and compressible flows, the latter being demonstrated in a priori testing for low-speed attached and separated boundary layers. Similar to the classical LES procedure from which it is derived, the variational dynamic procedure does not guarantee a positive semi-definite coefficient in the general case. However, reproducing the behavior of the classical LES dynamic approach is seen as a necessary first step to develop a VMM that automatically adjusts to the local resolution and flow physics.
Variational multiscale↗
Solar generated quasi-biennial geomagnetic variation
The existence of highly correlated quasi-biennial variations in the geomagnetic field and in solar activity is demonstrated. The analysis uses a numerical filter technique applied to monthly averages of the geomagnetic horizontal component and of the Zurich relative sunspot number. Striking correlations are found between the quasi-biennial geomagnetic variations determined from several magnetic observatories located at widely different longitudes, indicating a worldwide nature of the obtained variation. The correlation coefficient between the filtered Dst index and the filtered relative sunspot number is found to be -0.79 at confidence level greater than 99% with a time-lag of 4 months, with solar activity preceding the Dst variation. The correlation between the unfiltered data of Dst and of the sunspot number is also high with a similar time-lag. Such a timelag has not been discussed in the literature, and a further study is required to establish the mode of sun-earth relationship that gives this time delay.
Sugiura, M.↗
Solar-generated quasi-biennial geomagnetic variation
The existence of highly correlated quasi-biennial variations in the geomagnetic field and in solar activity is demonstrated. The analysis uses a numerical filter technique applied to monthly averages of the geomagnetic horizontal component and of the Zurich relative sunspot number. Striking correlations are found between the quasi-biennial geomagnetic variations determined from several magnetic observatories located at widely different longitudes, indicating the worldwide nature of the obtained variation. The correlation coefficient between the filtered Dst index and the filtered relative sunspot number is found to be -0.79 at confidence level greater than 99% with a time lag of 4 months, solar activity preceding the Dst variation. The correlation between the unfiltered data of Dst and those of the sunspot number is also high with a similar time lag. Such a time lag has not been discussed in the literature, and a further study is required to establish the mode of sun-earth relationship that gives this time delay.
Sugiura, M.↗
Correlations between solar activity and operationally determined satellite drag variation parameters
Operational orbit determination of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) in the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has yielded an orbit solution data base of 3 years for ERBS and 8 years for SMM. One of the parameters in each data base is the drag variation parameter used in the GTDS atmospheric drag model; this parameter is solved routinely to accommodate the different atmospheric densities as they are encountered solution to solution. These two data bases of the drag variation parameter solutions are analyzed to evaluate correlations in the variations of the parameter with changes in the 10.7-cm wavelength solar flux, F10.7, and the geomagnetic index. The data for SMM span a wider range of solar flux values and show a stronger correlation. The data for ERBS, which is at a higher altitude and inclination than SMM, show a significant degree of scatter. For both satellites, the data indicate that changes in the drag variation parameter are more strongly correlated with the F10.7 solar flux than with the geomagnetic index. Correlations with the geomagnetic index are apparent only for severe geomagnetic storm conditions. Results from this analysis enhance the understanding of the drag model and the accommodation density variations in operational orbit determination support.
Smith, E. A.↗
Multiple Populations in NGC 1851: Abundance Variations and UV Photometric Synthesis in the Washington and HST /WFC3 Systems
The analysis of multiple populations (MPs) in globular clusters (GCs), both spectroscopically and photometrically, is key in understanding their formation and evolution. The relatively narrow Johnson U, F336W, and Stromgren and Sloan u filters have been crucial in exhibiting these MPs photometrically, but in Paper I we showed that the broader Washington C filter can more efficiently detect MPs in the test case GC NGC 1851. Additionally, In Paper I we detected a double main sequence (MS) that has not been detected in previous observations of NGC 1851. We now match this photometry to NGC 1851's published RGB abundances and find that the two RGB branches observed in C generally exhibit different abundance characteristics in a variety of elements (e.g., Ba, Na, and O) and in CN band strengths, but no single element can define the two RGB branches. However, simultaneously considering [Ba/Fe] or CN strength with either [Na/Fe], [O/Fe], or CN strength can separate the two photometric RGB branches into two distinct abundance groups. Matches of NGC 1851's published SGB and HB abundances to the Washington photometry shows consistent characterizations of the MPs, which can be defined as an O-rich/N-normal population and an O-poor/N-rich population. Photometric synthesis for both the Washington C filter and the F336W filter finds that these abundance characteristics, with appropriate variations in He, can reproduce for both filters the photometric observations in both the RGB and the MS. This photometric synthesis also confirms the throughput advantages that the C filter has in detecting MPs.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗