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NASA NTRS2002

Using TRMM Data To Understand Interannual Variations In the Tropical Water Balance

A significant element of the science rationale for TRMM centered on assembling rainfall data needed to validate climate models-- climatological estimates of precipitation, its spatial and temporal variability, and vertical modes of latent heat release. Since the launch of TRMM, a great interest in the science community has emerged for quantifying interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation and its relationship to sea-surface temperature (SST) changes. The fact that TRMM has sampled one strong warm/ cold ENSO couplet, together with the prospect for a mission lifetime approaching ten years, has bolstered this interest in these longer time scales. Variability on a regional basis as well as for the tropics as a whole is of concern. Our analysis of TRMM results so far has shown surprising lack of concordance between various algorithms in quantifying IAV of precipitation. The first objective of this talk is to quantify the sensitivity of tropical precipitation to changes in SSTs. We analyze performance of the 3A11, 3A25, and 3B31 algorithms and investigate their relationship to scattering-- based algorithms constructed from SSM/I and TRMM 85 kHz data. The physical basis for the differences (and similarities) in depicting tropical oceanic and land rainfall will be discussed. We argue that scattering-based estimates of variability constitute a useful upper bound for precipitation variations. These results lead to the second question addressed in this talk-- How do TRMM precipitation / SST sensitivities compare to estimates of oceanic evaporation and what are the implications of these uncertainties in determining interannual changes in large-scale moisture transport? We summarize results of an analysis performed using COADS data supplemented by SSM/I estimates of near-surface variables to assess evaporation sensitivity to SST. The response of near 5 W sq m/K is compared to various TRMM precipitation sensitivities. Implied moisture convergence over the tropics and its sensitivity to errors of these algorithms is discussed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic Evaluation of Advanced Ceramic Matrix Composite Structures

The objective of this report is to summarize the deterministic and probabilistic structural evaluation results of two structures made with advanced ceramic composites (CMC): internally pressurized tube and uniformly loaded flange. The deterministic structural evaluation includes stress, displacement, and buckling analyses. It is carried out using the finite element code MHOST, developed for the 3-D inelastic analysis of structures that are made with advanced materials. The probabilistic evaluation is performed using the integrated probabilistic assessment of composite structures computer code IPACS. The affects of uncertainties in primitive variables related to the material, fabrication process, and loadings on the material property and structural response behavior are quantified. The primitive variables considered are: thermo-mechanical properties of fiber and matrix, fiber and void volume ratios, use temperature, and pressure. The probabilistic structural analysis and probabilistic strength results are used by IPACS to perform reliability and risk evaluation of the two structures. The results will show that the sensitivity information obtained for the two composite structures from the computational simulation can be used to alter the design process to meet desired service requirements. In addition to detailed probabilistic analysis of the two structures, the following were performed specifically on the CMC tube: (1) predicted the failure load and the buckling load, (2) performed coupled non-deterministic multi-disciplinary structural analysis, and (3) demonstrated that probabilistic sensitivities can be used to select a reduced set of design variables for optimization.

Abumeri, Galib H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Little Ice Age and Human-Environmental Interactions in the Central Balkans: Insights from a New Serbian Paleorecord

This paper presents a 600-year well-dated, high-resolution Central Balkan paleo-record including the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1450-850 CE). Utilizing pollen-based REVEALS modelling estimates, geochemical indicators, rarefaction analyses and the AMS 14C-based Bacon age model, this first-hand record from the Sava Basin reveals the transformation of the Central Balkan landscape involving linkages between changing climatic and socio-political regimes. The pre-LIA interval (1370-1418 CE) in the Sava Region reveals a wooded steppe and increased cultivation under warmer/stable climatic and socio-political conditions. In contrast, the LIA interval in the region is expressed through continuous transitions between forest and grassland, extensive land erosion and stressed agriculture, potentially as a collective artifact of the climatic variability and human impact associated with socio- political stressors of the time. The post-LIA/Industrial Era interval (1850-2012 CE) in the Sava Region shows an overall increase in woodland as well as agriculture following the exit of the Ottomans. However, increased population pressures and the subsequent onset of the Industrial Revolution as well as increased trade led to intense deforestation throughout the 20th Century, which continued during the Socialist period.

Societal impacts of climate change↗
NASA NTRS2002

Structural Optimization of a Force Balance Using a Computational Experiment Design

This paper proposes a new approach to force balance structural optimization featuring a computational experiment design. Currently, this multi-dimensional design process requires the designer to perform a simplification by executing parameter studies on a small subset of design variables. This one-factor-at-a-time approach varies a single variable while holding all others at a constant level. Consequently, subtle interactions among the design variables, which can be exploited to achieve the design objectives, are undetected. The proposed method combines Modern Design of Experiments techniques to direct the exploration of the multi-dimensional design space, and a finite element analysis code to generate the experimental data. To efficiently search for an optimum combination of design variables and minimize the computational resources, a sequential design strategy was employed. Experimental results from the optimization of a non-traditional force balance measurement section are presented. An approach to overcome the unique problems associated with the simultaneous optimization of multiple response criteria is described. A quantitative single-point design procedure that reflects the designer's subjective impression of the relative importance of various design objectives, and a graphical multi-response optimization procedure that provides further insights into available tradeoffs among competing design objectives are illustrated. The proposed method enhances the intuition and experience of the designer by providing new perspectives on the relationships between the design variables and the competing design objectives providing a systematic foundation for advancements in structural design.

Parker, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Principal Modes of Precipitation Variability from Preliminary Series of IMERG Data

The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, IMERG, is the unified U.S. algorithm that provides merged Microwave Infrared (IR) satellite precipitation product for the U.S. GPM team. Even though IMERG record is still very short, 2014-2016, it is tempting to test if it captures ENSO and NAO signals as compared to the popular, still on-going, TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, TMPA. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most significant mode of interannual variability of tropical ocean atmosphere. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) impact is on monthly scales and is mostly an atmospheric mode in the North Atlantic. There exist well-defined, multivariate, indexes that represent ENSO and NAO conditions and phase.

climate variability↗
NASA NTRS1994

Coupled electromechanical response of composite beams with embedded piezoelectric sensors and actuators

Unified mechanics are developed with the capability to model both sensory and active composite laminates with embedded piezoelectric layers. A discrete-layer formulation enables analysis of both global and local electromechanical response. The mechanics include the contributions from elastic, piezoelectric, and dielectric components. The incorporation of electric potential into the state variables permits representation of general electromechanical boundary conditions. Approximate finite element solutions for the static and free-vibration analysis of beams are presented. Applications on composite beams demonstrate the capability to represent either sensory or active structures and to model the complicated stress-strain fields, the interactions between passive/active layers, interfacial phenomena between sensors and composite plies, and critical damage modes in the material. The capability to predict the dynamic characteristics under various electrical boundary conditions is also demonstrated.

Saravanos, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
NASA NTRS2002

X-Ray Spectral Variability Signatures of Flares in BL Lac Objects

We are presenting a detailed parameter study of the time-dependent electron injection and kinematics and the self-consistent radiation transport in jets of intermediate and low-frequency peaked BL Lac objects. Using a time-dependent, combined synchrotron-self-Compton and external-Compton jet model, we study the influence of variations of several essential model parameters, such as the electron injection compactness, the relative contribution of synchrotron to external soft photons to the soft photon compactness, the electron- injection spectral index, and the details of the time profiles of the electron injection episodes giving rise to flaring activity. In the analysis of our results, we focus on the expected X-ray spectral variability signatures in a region of parameter space particularly well suited to reproduce the broadband spectral energy distributions of intermediate and low-frequency peaked BL Lac objects. We demonstrate that SSC- and external-Compton dominated models for the gamma-ray emission from blazars are producing significantly different signatures in the X-ray variability, in particular in the soft X-ray light curves and the spectral hysteresis at soft X-ray energies, which can be used as a powerful diagnostic to unveil the nature of the high-energy emission from BL Lac objects.

Boettcher, Markus↗
NASA NTRS1994

Coronal X-ray sources in the Hyades: A 40 kilosecond ROSAT pointing

We present results of a 40 ks ROSAT pointed observation of the Hyades cluster. The limiting L(sub x) is approximately = 2 x 10(exp 27) ergs/sec at field center, increasing to approximately = 2 x 10(exp 28) ergs/sec at 40 min off-axis. This represents the most sensitive X-ray observation to date in the Hyades region. More than 30 sources have been detected in the Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) standard processing, of which 15 are Hyades members, five are cluster candidates that are likely non-members, four are foreground or background stars, and the remainder are unidentified. One Hyad, VB 173 (= VA 276), lies in a confused region, but is detected as a distinct source in the soft band only (E approximately less than 0.5 keV). We report upper limits for four other Hyades members in our field, all M dwarfs. Of the 16 Hyades detections, two represent the optically faintest members seen to date in X-rays; VA 260 (V = 16.68) and VA 368 (V = 16.25). These are both M dwarfs of mass approximately = 0.15-0.2 solar mass and are fully convective stars according to current theory. Analysis of X-ray light curves using 1 ks bins indicates some variability in the strongest sources and a possible flare in VA 383. Two Hyades stars, VB 141 and VB 71, were also detected with the co-aligned Wide Field Camera (WFC) EUV instrument. VB 141, the second brightest X-ray source in the Hyades, remains an enigma: a rapidly rotating FO star with a fainter, long-period companion, this object has an X-ray spectrum indicative of strong coronal activity. X-ray pulse-height analysis demonstrates that coronal models with at least two temperatures are required for most of the stronger X-ray sources. The ROSAT X-ray spectra generally require higher temperatures for the hotter component in the M dwarfs compared to the F-G dwarfs.

Stern, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

SBUV version 8.6 Retrieval Algorithm: Error Analysis and Validation Technique

SBUV version 8.6 algorithm was used to reprocess data from the Back Scattered Ultra Violet (BUV), the Solar Back Scattered Ultra Violet (SBUV) and a number of SBUV/2 instruments, which 'span a 41-year period from 1970 to 2011 (except a 5-year gap in the 1970s)[see Bhartia et al, 2012]. In the new version Daumont et al. [1992] ozone cross section were used, and new ozone [McPeters et ai, 2007] and cloud climatologies Doiner and Bhartia, 1995] were implemented. The algorithm uses the Optimum Estimation technique [Rodgers, 2000] to retrieve ozone profiles as ozone layer (partial column, DU) on 21 pressure layers. The corresponding total ozone values are calculated by summing ozone columns at individual layers. The algorithm is optimized to accurately retrieve monthly zonal mean (mzm) profiles rather than an individual profile, since it uses monthly zonal mean ozone climatology as the A Priori. Thus, the SBUV version 8.6 ozone dataset is better suited for long-term trend analysis and monitoring ozone changes rather than for studying short-term ozone variability. Here we discuss some characteristics of the SBUV algorithm and sources of error in the SBUV profile and total ozone retrievals. For the first time the Averaging Kernels, smoothing errors and weighting functions (or Jacobians) are included in the SBUV metadata. The Averaging Kernels (AK) represent the sensitivity of the retrieved profile to the true state and contain valuable information about the retrieval algorithm, such as Vertical Resolution, Degrees of Freedom for Signals (DFS) and Retrieval Efficiency [Rodgers, 2000]. Analysis of AK for mzm ozone profiles shows that the total number of DFS for ozone profiles varies from 4.4 to 5.5 out of 6-9 wavelengths used for retrieval. The number of wavelengths in turn depends on solar zenith angles. Between 25 and 0.5 hPa, where SBUV vertical resolution is the highest, DFS for individual layers are about 0.5.

Kramarova, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Evidence for long-term variability in the ultra high energy photon flux from Cygnus X-3

A time-correlation analysis of atmospheric Cerenkov pulses by a wide-angle photomultiplier system was previously shown to have present in it a nonrandom component which seemed associated with the Right Ascension (RA) range approx. 20+or-04h. A recent examination of multi-muon events recorded by a photon-decay detector shows a similar time-dependent effect, closely matching the previous results, supporting the suggestion that the effect is of cosmic origin. However, even though Cyg. X-3 lies well inside the region of peak intensity, it does not seem possible to ascribe to it the whole effect, for the implied photon flux appears too large to be reconciled to various gamma-ray measurements of Cyg. X-3. The original data were subjected to a phase-histogram analysis and it as found that only 2.5% of overall recorded data are compatible with a phase-dependent emission from Cyg. X-3. Assuming these events to be gamma rays yields a detected flux of (2.6 + or - 0.3) x 10 to the minus 12th power gamma cm -2s-1 above 5 x 10 to the 14th power eV. Comparing this value with more recent ultra high energy (UHE) photon data from the same source, it is suggested that the available data generally favor a long-term reduction in the Cyg. X-3 inferred luminosity ( 10 to the 13th power eV) by a factor of (1.8 + or - 0.3) per year.

Bhat, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Thermal shaft effects on load-carrying capacity of a fully coupled, variable-properties cryogenic journal bearing

The purpose of this work was to perform a rather complete analysis for a cryogenic (oxygen) journal bearing. The Reynolds equation required coupling and simultaneous solution with the fluid energy equation. To correctly account for the changes in the fluid viscosity, the fluid energy equation was coupled with the shaft and bearing heat conduction energy equations. The effects of pressure and temperature on the density, viscosity, and load-carrying capacity were further discussed as analysis parameters, with respect to relative eccentricity and the angular velocity. The isothermal fluid case and the adiabatic fluid case represented the limiting boundaries. The discussion was further extrapolated to study the Sommerfeld number dependency on the fluid Nusselt number and its consequence on possible total loss of load-carrying capacity and/or seizure (catastrophic failure).

Braun, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Wavenumber selection for small-wavelength Goertler vortices in curved channel flows

The problem of wavenumber selection for fully nonlinear, small-wavelength Goertler vortices in a curved channel flow is considered. These types of Goertler vortices were first considered by Hall & Lakin (1988) for an external boundary layer flow. They proved particularly amenable to asymptotic description, it was possible to consider vortices large enough so that the mean flow correction driven by them is as large as the basic state, and this prompted the authors to consider them in a curved channel flow as an initial application of the phase-equation approach to Goertler vortices. This involves the assumption that the phase variable of these Goertler vortices varies on slow spanwise and time scales, then an analysis of both inside and outside the core region, to which vortex activity is restricted, leads to a system of partial differential equations which can be solved numerically for the wavenumber. The authors consider in particular the effect on the wavenumber of the outer channel wall varying on the same slow spanwise scale as the phase variable.

Dando, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2004

Monitoring the Variable Absorption in the Seyfert 1 Galaxy NGC 3783 with FUSE, HST, and Chandra Observations

The analysis of FUSE observations funded by this grant aims to understand the nature and origin of the absorbing gas in NGC 3783. We have used the simultaneous FUSE, HST, and Chandra data to determine the radial location, density, and ionization state of the absorbing gas and measure its evolution in ionization, column density, velocity, and coverage of the active nucleus. As part of this program, Dr. Gerard Kriss supplied advice and assistance in planning and scheduling the FUSE observations of NGC 3783 coordinated with the HST/STIS observations, and co-authored the publications listed in the bibliography and summarized below.

Kriss, Gerard A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Erasing the Variable: Empirical Foreground Discovery for Global 21 cm Spectrum Experiments

Spectral measurements of the 21 cm monopole background have the promise of revealing the bulk energetic properties and ionization state of our universe from z approx. 6 − 30. Synchrotron foregrounds are orders of magnitude larger than the cosmological signal, and are the principal challenge faced by these experiments. While synchrotron radiation is thought to be spectrally smooth and described by relatively few degrees of freedom, the instrumental response to bright foregrounds may be much more complex. To deal with such complexities, we develop an approach that discovers contaminated spectral modes using spatial fluctuations of the measured data. This approach exploits the fact that foregrounds vary across the sky while the signal does not. The discovered modes are projected out of each line-of-sight of a data cube. An angular weighting then optimizes the cosmological signal amplitude estimate by giving preference to lower-noise regions. Using this method, we show that it is essential for the passband to be stable to at least approx. 10(exp −4). In contrast, the constraints on the spectral smoothness of the absolute calibration are mainly aesthetic if one is able to take advantage of spatial information. To the extent it is understood, controlling polarization to intensity leakage at the approx. 10(exp −2) level will also be essential to rejecting Faraday rotation of the polarized synchrotron emission. Subject headings: dark ages, reionization, first stars - methods: data analysis - methods: statistical

Variable↗
NASA NTRS1976

Monte Carlo investigation of thrust imbalance of solid rocket motor pairs

The Monte Carlo method of statistical analysis is used to investigate the theoretical thrust imbalance of pairs of solid rocket motors (SRMs) firing in parallel. Sets of the significant variables are selected using a random sampling technique and the imbalance calculated for a large number of motor pairs using a simplified, but comprehensive, model of the internal ballistics. The treatment of burning surface geometry allows for the variations in the ovality and alignment of the motor case and mandrel as well as those arising from differences in the basic size dimensions and propellant properties. The analysis is used to predict the thrust-time characteristics of 130 randomly selected pairs of Titan IIIC SRMs. A statistical comparison of the results with test data for 20 pairs shows the theory underpredicts the standard deviation in maximum thrust imbalance by 20% with variability in burning times matched within 2%. The range in thrust imbalance of Space Shuttle type SRM pairs is also estimated using applicable tolerances and variabilities and a correction factor based on the Titan IIIC analysis.

Sforzini, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Using Beta Cen to Probe the Photosphere-Wind Connection to B Stars

The goal of the project was to probe the connection between the photospheric pulsations and the X-ray production in the stellar winds of B stars. The B1 III star Beta Centauri is a Beta Cephei variable with a high X-ray count rate, and was observed by XMM. Analysis of XMM X-ray spectra showed characteristic plasma temperatures of 0.1, 0.2 and 0.6 keV. Analysis of He-like forbidden-to-intercombination lines was performed to determine the dominant locations of the X-ray emission. At Prism, work focused on developing and upgrading spectral models to calculate forbidden-to-intercombination line ratios using more detailed atomic models than the simple models typically used in the analysis of X-ray spectral lines, thereby allowing us to assess the effects of a broader variety of populating and depopulating channels for energy levels contributing to the observed X-ray line emission. Based on Ne IX lines, the source location was determined to be no farther than 4 stellar radii. Examination of the time variability of the XMM data for Beta Cen showed no significant correlation with the known optical pulsation period for the star, and also did not find any significant periods of variation at X-ray wavelengths.

MacFarlane, Joseph J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Dynamic characterization and analysis of space shuttle SRM solid propellant

The dynamic response properties of the space shuttle solid rocket moter (TP-H1148) propellant were characterized and the expected limits of propellant variability were established. Dynamic shear modulus tests conducted on six production batches of TP-H1148 at various static and dynamic strain levels over the temperature range from 40 F to 90 F. A heat conduction analysis and dynamic response analysis of the space shuttle solid rocket motor (SRM) were also conducted. The dynamic test results show significant dependence on static and dynamic strain levels and considerable batch-to-batch and within-batch variability. However, the results of the SRM dynamic response analyses clearly demonstrate that the stiffness of the propellant has no consequential on the overall SRM dynamic response. Only the mass of the propellant needs to be considered in the dynamic analysis of the space shuttle SRM.

Hufferd, W. L.↗