Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Surrogates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,477 records · Page 82
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven Chaos Indicator for Nonlinear Dynamics and Applications on Storage Ring Lattice Design

A data-driven chaos indicator concept is introduced to characterize the degree of chaos for nonlinear dynamical systems. The indicator is represented by the prediction accuracy of surrogate models established purely from data. It provides a metric for the predictability of nonlinear motions in a given system. When using the indicator to implement a tune-scan for a quadratic Hénon map, the main resonances and their asymmetric stop-band widths can be identified. When applied to particle transportation in a storage ring, as particle motion becomes more chaotic, its surrogate model prediction accuracy decreases correspondingly. Therefore, the prediction accuracy, acting as a chaos indicator, can be used directly as the objective for nonlinear beam dynamics optimization. This method provides a different perspective on nonlinear beam dynamics and an efficient method for nonlinear lattice optimization. Applications in dynamic aperture optimization are demonstrated as real world examples.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

IMPACT: Design of Integrated Multiphysics Producible Additive Components for Turbomachinery

The overall objective of the IMPACT program was to enable a dramatic reduction in design maturation time for an additive hot-section turbomachinery component through the following: • A fast crack-risk producibility surrogate model generated from machine learning applied to additive process simulation data generated via exascale computing, • Linking this surrogate model to multi-physics topology optimization (TO) to enable the creation of producible, near-optimal structural/thermal designs for additive hot-section components, • Maturing this toolset to reduce hot-section component design-for-manufacturing iterations by a large fraction, and eventually, • Using these tools to develop more efficient gas turbines in much shorter design cycle times.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invertible Neural Networks for Airfoil Design

We report the airfoil design problem, in which an engineer seeks a shape with desired performance characteristics, is fundamental to aerodynamics. Design workflows traditionally rely on iterative optimization methods using low-fidelity integral boundary-layer methods as higher-fidelity adjoint-based computational fluid dynamics methods are computationally expensive. Surrogate-based approaches can accelerate the design process but still rely on some iterative inverse design procedure. In this work, we leverage emerging invertible neural network (INN) tools to enable the rapid inverse design of airfoil shapes for wind turbines. INNs are specialized deep-learning models with well-defined inverse mappings. When trained appropriately, INN surrogate models are capable of forward prediction of aerodynamic and structural quantities for a given airfoil shape as well as inverse recovery of airfoil shapes with specified aerodynamic and structural characteristics. The INN approach offers a roughly 100 times speed-up compared to adjoint-based methods for inverse design. We demonstrate the INN tool for inverse design on three test cases of 100 airfoils each that satisfy the performance characteristics close to those of airfoils used in wind-turbine blades. All generated shapes satisfy the desired aerodynamic characteristics, demonstrating the success of the INN approach for inverse design of airfoils.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Analyzing Effects of Turbulence on Power Generation Using Wind Plant Monitoring Data: Preprint

In this paper, a methodology is developed to analyze how ambient and wake turbulence affects the power generation of a single wind turbine within an array of turbines. Using monitoring data from a wind power plant, we selected two sets of wind and power data for turbines on the edge of the wind plant that resemble (i) an out-of-wake scenario (i.e., when the turbine directly faces incoming winds) and (ii) an in-wake scenario (i.e., when the turbine is under the wake of other turbines). For each set of data, two surrogate models were then developed to represent the turbine power generation (i) as a function of the wind speed; and (ii) as a function of the wind speed and turbulence intensity. Support vector regression was adopted for the development of the surrogate models. Three types of uncertainties in the turbine power generation were also investigated: (i) the uncertainty in power generation with respect to the published/reported power curve, (ii) the uncertainty in power generation with respect to the estimated power response that accounts for only mean wind speed; and (iii) the uncertainty in power generation with respect to the estimated power response that accounts for both mean wind speed and turbulence intensity. Results show that (i) under the same wind conditions, the turbine generates different power between the in-wake and out-of-wake scenarios, (ii) a turbine generally produces more power under the in-wake scenario than under the out-of-wake scenario, (iii) the power generation is sensitive to turbulence intensity even when the wind speed is greater than the turbine rated speed, and (iv) there is relatively more uncertainty in the power generation under the in-wake scenario than under the out-of-wake scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating computational fluid dynamics simulation of post-combustion carbon capture modeling with MeshGraphNets

Packed columns are commonly used in post-combustion processes to capture CO 2 emissions by providing enhanced contact area between a CO 2 -laden gas and CO 2 -absorbing solvent. To study and optimize solvent-based post-combustion carbon capture systems (CCSs), computational fluid dynamics (CFD) can be used to model the liquid–gas countercurrent flow hydrodynamics in these columns and derive key determinants of CO 2 -capture efficiency. However, the large design space of these systems hinders the application of CFD for design optimization due to its high computational cost. In contrast, data-driven modeling approaches can produce fast surrogates to study large-scale physics problems. We build our surrogates using MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph neural network framework that efficiently learns and produces mesh-based simulations. We apply MGN to a random packed column modeled with over 160K graph nodes and a design space consisting of three key input parameters: solvent surface tension, inlet velocity, and contact angle. Our models can adapt to a wide range of these parameters and accurately predict the complex interactions within the system at rates over 1700 times faster than CFD, affirming its practicality in downstream design optimization tasks. This underscores the robustness and versatility of MGN in modeling complex fluid dynamics for large-scale CCS analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Emission Source Terms in a Reduced-Order Fire Spread Model—Part 1: Particulate Emissions

A simple, easy-to-evaluate, surrogate model was developed for predicting the particle emission source term in wildfire simulations. In creating this model, we conceptualized wildfire as a series of flamelets, and using this concept of flamelets, we developed a one-dimensional model to represent the structure of these flamelets which then could be used to simulate the evolution of a single flamelet. A previously developed soot model was executed within this flamelet simulation which could produce a particle size distribution. Executing this flamelet simulation 1200 times with varying conditions created a data set of emitted particle size distributions to which simple rational equations could be tuned to predict a particle emission factor, mean particle size, and standard deviation of particle sizes. These surrogate models (the rational equation) were implemented into a reduced-order fire spread model, QUIC-Fire. Using QUIC-Fire, an ensemble of simulations were executed for grassland fires, southeast U.S. conifer forests, and western mountain conifer forests. Resulting emission factors from this ensemble were compared against field data for these fire classes with promising results. Also shown is a predicted averaged resulting particle size distribution with the bulk of particles produced to be on the order of 1 μm in size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of multi-fidelity models

Multi-fidelity models provide a framework for integrating computational models of varying complexity, allowing for accurate predictions while optimizing computational resources. These models are especially beneficial when acquiring high-accuracy data is costly or computationally intensive. This review offers a comprehensive analysis of multi-fidelity models, focusing on their applications in scientific and engineering fields, particularly in optimization and uncertainty quantification. It classifies publications on multi-fidelity modeling according to several criteria, including application area, surrogate model selection, types of fidelity, combination methods and year of publication. The study investigates techniques for combining different fidelity levels, with an emphasis on multi-fidelity surrogate models. Here this work discusses reproducibility, open-sourcing methodologies and benchmarking procedures to promote transparency. The manuscript also includes educational toy problems to enhance understanding. Additionally, this paper outlines best practices for presenting multi-fidelity-related savings in a standardized, succinct and yet thorough manner. The review concludes by examining current trends in multi-fidelity modeling, including emerging techniques, recent advancements, and promising research directions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2023

Efficient Calibration of Expensive Computational Models

Accounting for uncertainty when calibrating expensive computational models is a common challenge faced by scientists and engineers. Often Bayesian techniques are adopted to estimate a probability density function over the model parameters given noisy empirical data. The methods used to perform this type of probabilistic calibration are computationally prohibitive in that they require a large number of evaluations of the expensive model. In these cases, surrogate modeling -- that is, using a fast-to-evaluate, lower fidelity stand-in for the original computational model -- may be the only option to alleviate this computational burden. However, the upfront cost of generating training data to build a surrogate model can itself be expensive. As such, it is important to be judicious when selecting training points at which the full-fidelity model is evaluated. Here, an active learning approach is proposed that enables efficient selection of training points using approximate samples of the calibrated parameter probability density function. In this way, the training points can be concentrated in regions where the calibration algorithm requires high model accuracy.

active learning↗
DOE OSTI2016

AN OVERVIEW OF REDUCED ORDER MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR SAFETY APPLICATIONS

The RISMC project is developing new advanced simulation-based tools to perform Computational Risk Analysis (CRA) for the existing fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs). These tools numerically model not only the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactors primary and secondary systems, but also external event temporal evolution and component/system ageing. Thus, this is not only a multi-physics problem being addressed, but also a multi-scale problem (both spatial, µm-mm-m, and temporal, seconds-hours-years). As part of the RISMC CRA approach, a large amount of computationally-expensive simulation runs may be required. An important aspect is that even though computational power is growing, the overall computational cost of a RISMC analysis using brute-force methods may be not viable for certain cases. A solution that is being evaluated to assist the computational issue is the use of reduced order modeling techniques. During the FY2015, we investigated and applied reduced order modeling techniques to decrease the RISMC analysis computational cost by decreasing the number of simulation runs; for this analysis improvement we used surrogate models instead of the actual simulation codes. This article focuses on the use of reduced order modeling techniques that can be applied to RISMC analyses in order to generate, analyze, and visualize data. In particular, we focus on surrogate models that approximate the simulation results but in a much faster time (microseconds instead of hours/days).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic Short-Term Wind Forecasting Based on Pinball Loss Optimization: Preprint

Probabilistic wind power forecasts that quantify the uncertainty in wind output have the potential to aid in the economic grid integration of wind power at large penetration levels. In this paper, a novel probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is proposed, in conjunction with a multi-model machine learning based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework. By assuming the pointforecasted value as the mean at each point, one unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of a predictive distribution at each forecasting point is determined by minimizing the pinball loss. A surrogate model is developed to represent the unknown distribution parameter as a function of deterministic forecasts. This surrogate model can be used together with deterministic forecasts to predict the unknown distribution parameter and thereby generate probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed method has improved the pinball loss by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Hierarchical calibration and validation for modeling bench-scale solvent-based carbon capture. Part 1: Non-reactive physical mass transfer across the wetted wall column

A hierarchical model calibration and validation are proposed here for quantifying the confidence level of mass transfer prediction using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, where the solvent-based carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture is simulated and the predicted results are compared to the corresponding bench-scale experimental data. Two unit problems with an increasing level of complexity are proposed to break down the complex physical/chemical processes of solvent-based CO 2 capture into relatively simpler problems to separate the effects of physical transport and chemical reaction. This paper focuses on the calibration and validation of the first unit problem, i.e., the CO 2 mass transfer across a falling ethanolamine (MEA) film in the absence of chemical reaction. This problem is investigated both experimentally and numerically using non-reactive nitrous oxide (N 2 O) as a surrogate for CO 2 . To capture motion of the gas-liquid interface, a volume of fluid method is employed with a one-fluid formulation to compute the mass transfer between the two phases. Parallel bench-scale experiments are designed and conducted to validate and calibrate the CFD models using a general Bayesian calibration approach. Two important transport parameters, Henry's constant and gas diffusivity, are calibrated to produce the posterior distributions, which will be used as input for the second unit problem to address the chemical absorption of CO 2 across the MEA falling film, where both mass transfer and chemical reaction are involved. Finally, mass transfer coefficients predicted by CFD are also compared with those predicted by the traditional/empirical correlations under both steady and wavy falling film conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating dermal contact soil exposure for amphibians

Abstract Chemical exposure estimation through the dermal route is an underemphasized area of ecological risk assessment for terrestrial animals. Currently, there are efforts to create exposure models to estimate doses from this pathway for use in ecological risk assessment. One significant limitation has been insufficient published data to characterize exposure and to support the selection and parameterization of appropriate models, particularly for amphibians in terrestrial habitats. Recent publications measuring pesticide doses to terrestrial‐phase amphibians have begun to rectify this situation. We collated and summarized available measurements of terrestrial amphibian dermal exposure to pesticides from 11 studies in which researchers measured tissue concentrations associated with known pesticide experimental application rates. This data set included tissue concentrations in 11 amphibian species and 14 different pesticides. We then compared the results of two screening exposure models that differed based on surface area scaling approaches as a function of body weight (one based on birds as surrogates for amphibians and another amphibian‐specific) to the measured tissue residue concentrations. We define a false‐negative rate for each screening model as the proportion of amphibians for which the predicted concentration is less than the observed concentration (i.e., underestimate), contrary to the intent of screening models, which are intended to have a bias for higher exposure concentrations. The screening model that uses birds as surrogates did not have any instances where estimated expected avian doses were less than measured amphibian body burdens. When using the amphibian‐specific exposure model that corrected for differences between avian and amphibian surface area, measured concentrations were greater than model estimates for 11.3% of the 1158 comparisons. The database of measured pesticide concentrations in terrestrial amphibians is provided for use in calculating bioconcentration factors and for future amphibian dermal exposure model development. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:9–16. © 2022 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2015

Using the apparent diffusion coefficient to identifying MGMT promoter methylation status early in glioblastoma: importance of analytical method

Accurate knowledge of O{sup 6}-methylguanine methyltransferase (MGMT) gene promoter subtype in patients with glioblastoma (GBM) is important for treatment. However, this test is not always available. Pre-operative diffusion MRI (dMRI) can be used to probe tumour biology using the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC); however, its ability to act as a surrogate to predict MGMT status has shown mixed results. We investigated whether this was due to variations in the method used to analyse ADC. We undertook a retrospective study of 32 patients with GBM who had MGMT status measured. Matching pre-operative MRI data were used to calculate the ADC within contrast enhancing regions of tumour. The relationship between ADC and MGMT was examined using two published ADC methods. A strong trend between a measure of ‘minimum ADC’ and methylation status was seen. An elevated minimum ADC was more likely in the methylated compared to the unmethylated MGMT group (U = 56, P = 0.0561). In contrast, utilising a two-mixture model histogram approach, a significant reduction in mean measure of the ‘low ADC’ component within the histogram was associated with an MGMT promoter methylation subtype (P < 0.0246). This study shows that within the same patient cohort, the method selected to analyse ADC measures has a significant bearing on the use of that metric as a surrogate marker of MGMT status. Thus for dMRI data to be clinically useful, consistent methods of data analysis need to be established prior to establishing any relationship with genetic or epigenetic profiling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainability and extrapolation of machine learning models for predicting the glass transition temperature of polymers

Abstract Machine learning (ML) offers promising tools to develop surrogate models for polymers' structure–property relations. Surrogate models can be built upon existing polymer data and are useful for rapidly predicting the properties of unknown polymers. The accuracy of such ML models appears to depend on the feature space representation of polymers, the range of training data, and learning algorithms. Here, we establish connections between these factors for predicting the glass transition temperature (T g ) of polymers. Our analysis suggests linear models with fewer fitting parameters are as accurate as nonlinear models with many hidden and unexplainable parameters. Also, the performance of a monomer topology‐based ML model is found to be qualitatively identical to that of a physicochemical descriptor‐based ML model. We find that the ML models's performance in the extrapolative region is enhanced as the property range of the training data increases. Moreover, we establish newT g – polymer chemistry correlations via ML. Our work illustrates how ML can advance the fundamental understanding of polymer structure–property correlations and its efficacy for extrapolation problems.

Polymer Science↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ensemble simulations of inertial confinement fusion implosions

The achievement of inertial confinement fusion ignition on the National Ignition Facility relies on the collection and interpretation of a limited (and expensive) set of experimental data. These data are therefore supplemented with state-of-the-art multi-dimensional radiation-hydrodynamic simulations to provide a better understanding of implosion dynamics and behavior. We present a relatively large number (~4000) of systematically perturbed 2D simulations to probe our understanding of low-mode fuel and ablator asymmetries seeded by asymmetric illumination. We find that Gaussian process surrogate models are able to predict both the total neutron yield and the degradation in performance due to asymmetries. Furthermore, the surrogates are then applied to simulations containing new sources of degradation to quantify the impact of the new source.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards accelerating particle-resolved direct numerical simulation with neural operators

In this paper, we present our ongoing work aimed at accelerating a particle-resolved direct numerical simulation model designed to study aerosol–cloud–turbulence interactions. The dynamical model consists of two main components—a set of fluid dynamics equations for air velocity, temperature, and humidity, coupled with a set of equations for particle (i.e., cloud droplet) tracing. Rather than attempting to replace the original numerical solution method in its entirety with a machine learning (ML) method, we consider developing a hybrid approach. We exploit the potential of neural operator learning to yield fast and accurate surrogate models and, in this study, develop such surrogates for the velocity and vorticity fields. We discuss results from numerical experiments designed to assess the performance of ML architectures under consideration as well as their suitability for capturing the behavior of relevant dynamical systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A data-driven framework for permeability prediction of natural porous rocks via microstructural characterization and pore-scale simulation

Understanding the microstructure–property relationships of porous media is of great practical significance, based on which macroscopic physical properties can be directly derived from measurable microstructural informatics. However, establishing reliable microstructure–property mappings in an explicit manner is difficult, due to the intricacy, stochasticity, and heterogeneity of porous microstructures. In this paper, a data-driven computational framework is presented to investigate the inherent microstructure–permeability linkage for natural porous rocks, where multiple techniques are integrated together, including microscopy imaging, stochastic reconstruction, microstructural characterization, pore-scale simulation, feature selection, and data-driven modeling. A large number of 3D digital rocks with a wide porosity range are acquired from microscopy imaging and stochastic reconstruction techniques. A broad variety of morphological descriptors are used to quantitatively characterize pore microstructures from different perspectives, and they compose the raw feature pool for feature selection. Here high-fidelity lattice Boltzmann simulations are conducted to resolve fluid flow passing through porous media, from which reliable permeability references are obtained. The optimal feature set that best represents permeability is identified through a performance-oriented feature selection process, upon which a cost-effective surrogate model is rapidly fitted to approximate the microstructure-permeability mapping via data-driven modeling. This surrogate model exhibits great advantages over empirical/analytical formulas in terms of prediction accuracy and generalization capacity, which can predict reliable permeability values spanning four orders of magnitude. Besides, feature selection also greatly enhances the interpretability of the data-driven prediction model, from which new insights into the mechanism of how microstructural characteristics determine intrinsic permeability are obtained.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗