Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,477 records · Page 82
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Seasonal Weather Prediction

The potential role of soil moisture initialization in seasonal forecasting is illustrated through ensembles of simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) model. For each boreal summer during 1997-2001, we generated two 16-member ensembles of 3-month simulations. The first, "AMIP-style" ensemble establishes the degree to which a perfect prediction of SSTs would contribute to the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature over continents. The second ensemble is identical to the first, except that the land surface is also initialized with "realistic" soil moisture contents through the continuous prior application (within GCM simulations leading up to the start of the forecast period) of a daily observational precipitation data set and the associated avoidance of model drift through the scaling of all surface prognostic variables. A comparison of the two ensembles shows that soil moisture initialization has a statistically significant impact on summertime precipitation and temperature over only a handful of continental regions. These regions agree, to first order, with regions that satisfy three conditions: (1) a tendency toward large initial soil moisture anomalies, (2) a strong sensitivity of evaporation to soil moisture, and (3) a strong sensitivity of precipitation to evaporation. The degree to which the initialization improves forecasts relative to observations is mixed, reflecting a critical need for the continued development of model parameterizations and data analysis strategies.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using NASA's Giovanni System to Simulate Time-Series Stations in the Outflow Region of California's Eel River

Oceanographic time-series stations provide vital data for the monitoring of oceanic processes, particularly those associated with trends over time and interannual variability. There are likely numerous locations where the establishment of a time-series station would be desirable, but for reasons of funding or logistics, such establishment may not be feasible. An alternative to an operational time-series station is monitoring of sites via remote sensing. In this study, the NASA Giovanni data system is employed to simulate the establishment of two time-series stations near the outflow region of California s Eel River, which carries a high sediment load. Previous time-series analysis of this location (Acker et al. 2009) indicated that remotely-sensed chl a exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend during summer (low flow) months, but no apparent trend during winter (high flow) months. Examination of several newly-available ocean data parameters in Giovanni, including 8-day resolution data, demonstrates the differences in ocean parameter trends at the two locations compared to regionally-averaged time-series. The hypothesis that the increased summer chl a values are related to increasing SST is evaluated, and the signature of the Eel River plume is defined with ocean optical parameters.

Acker, James G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Hybrid Large-Eddy/Reynolds-Averaged Simulation of a Supersonic Cavity Using VULCAN

Simulations of a supersonic recessed-cavity flow are performed using a hybrid large-eddy/Reynolds-averaged simulation approach utilizing an inflow turbulence recycling procedure and hybridized inviscid flux scheme. Calorically perfect air enters a three-dimensional domain at a free stream Mach number of 2.92. Simulations are performed to assess grid sensitivity of the solution, efficacy of the turbulence recycling, and the effect of the shock sensor used with the hybridized inviscid flux scheme. Analysis of the turbulent boundary layer upstream of the rearward-facing step for each case indicates excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. Mean velocity and pressure results are compared to Reynolds-averaged simulations and experimental data for each case and indicate good agreement on the finest grid. Simulations are repeated on a coarsened grid, and results indicate strong grid density sensitivity. Simulations are performed with and without inflow turbulence recycling on the coarse grid to isolate the effect of the recycling procedure, which is demonstrably critical to capturing the relevant shear layer dynamics. Shock sensor formulations of Ducros and Larsson are found to predict mean flow statistics equally well.

Quinlan, Jesse↗
NASA NTRS2015

Designing an Exploration Atmosphere Prebreathe Protocol

Extravehicular activities (EVAs) at remote locations must maximize limited resources such as oxygen (O2) and also minimize the risk of decompression sickness (DCS). A proposed remote denitrogenation (prebreathe) protocol requires astronauts to live in a mildly hypoxic atmosphere at 8.2 psia while periodically performing EVAs at 4.3 psia. Empirical data are required to confirm that the protocol meets the current accept requirements: less than or equal to 15% incidence of Type I DCS, less than or equal to 20% incidence of Grade IV venous gas emboli (VGE), both at 95% statistical confidence, with no Type II DCS symptom during the validation trial. METHODS: A repeated measures statistical design is proposed in which groups of 6 subjects with physical characteristics similar to active-duty astronauts would first become equilibrated to an 8.2 psia atmosphere in a hypobaric chamber containing 34% O2 and 66% N2, over 48 h, and then perform 4 simulated EVAs at 4.3 psia over the next 9 days. In the equilibration phase, subjects undergo a 3-h 100% O2 mask prebreathe prior to and during a 5-min ascent to 8.2 psia to prevent significant tissue N2 supersaturation on reaching 8.2 psia. Masks would be removed once 34% O2 is established at 8.2 psia, and subjects would then equilibrate to this atmosphere for 48 h. The hypoxia is equivalent to breathing air at 1,220 meters (4,000 ft) altitude, just as was experienced in the shuttle 10.2 psia - 26.5% O2 staged denitrogenation protocol and the current ISS campout denitrogenation protocol. For simulated EVAs, each subject dons a mask and breathes 85% O2 and 15% N2 during a 3-min depressurization to 6.0 psia, holds for 15 min, and then completes a 3-min depressurization to 4.3 psia. The simulated EVA period starts when 6.0 psia is reached and continues for a total of 240 min (222 min at 4.3 psia). During this time, subjects will follow a prescribed repetitive activity against loads in the upper and lower body with mean metabolic rate approaching 1500 BTU/hr [378 kcal/hr (O2 consumption about 1.3 l(sub STPD)/min)] in ambulatory subjects. Noninvasive Doppler ultrasound bubble monitoring for VGE in the pulmonary artery will be performed on subjects by 2 Doppler Technicians at about 15 min intervals while at 4.3 psia. At the end of this period, a 15-min repressurization returns all subjects back to 8.2 psia and the cycle is repeated 3 additional times with a day of rest between simulated EVAs. RESULTS: With an assumed 1.5% probability of DCS [P(DCS)] and accounting for within-subject correlation, running the proposed study with 20 subjects has a 95% probability of meeting the accept criterion for DCS. But if the true probability of DCS is 3.0%, then 30 subjects would be needed to achieve about the same probability to meet our accept criterion. These results assume a standard deviation of 1.4 for the between-subjects random component of P(DCS) on a logit scale, which was estimated from a previous study.

Conkin, Johnny↗
NASA NTRS2014

Type-Ia Supernova Rates to Redshift 2.4 from Clash: The Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble

We present the supernova (SN) sample and Type-Ia SN (SN Ia) rates from the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH). Using the Advanced Camera for Surveys and the Wide Field Camera 3 on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), we have imaged 25 galaxy-cluster fields and parallel fields of non-cluster galaxies. We report a sample of 27 SNe discovered in the parallel fields. Of these SNe, approximately 13 are classified as SN Ia candidates, including four SN Ia candidates at redshifts z greater than 1.2.We measure volumetric SN Ia rates to redshift 1.8 and add the first upper limit on the SN Ia rate in the range z greater than 1.8 and less than 2.4. The results are consistent with the rates measured by the HST/ GOODS and Subaru Deep Field SN surveys.We model these results together with previous measurements at z less than 1 from the literature. The best-fitting SN Ia delay-time distribution (DTD; the distribution of times that elapse between a short burst of star formation and subsequent SN Ia explosions) is a power law with an index of 1.00 (+0.06(0.09))/(-0.06(0.10)) (statistical) (+0.12/−0.08) (systematic), where the statistical uncertainty is a result of the 68% and 95% (in parentheses) statistical uncertainties reported for the various SN Ia rates (from this work and from the literature), and the systematic uncertainty reflects the range of possible cosmic star-formation histories. We also test DTD models produced by an assortment of published binary population synthesis (BPS) simulations. The shapes of all BPS double-degenerate DTDs are consistent with the volumetric SN Ia measurements, when the DTD models are scaled up by factors of 3-9. In contrast, all BPS single-degenerate DTDs are ruled out by the measurements at greater than 99% significance level.

SUPERNOVA↗
NASA NTRS2021

Expected Collision Rates for Tracked Satellites

This analysis estimates collision risks between tracked satellites based on the statistically expected collision rate _Nc and number of collisions Nc, which are closely related to the collision probability Pc. For isolated encounters, Nc equals Pc. For multi-encounter interactions, Nc can exceed Pc and is significantly easier to approximate semi-analytically. Estimating Nc requires integrating the collision rate over time throughout an interaction, with each required _Nc value calculated as a statistical expectation value based on the uncertainty distributions of initial orbital states. The uncertainty distributions are estimated from orbit determination analyses of satellite trajectory measurements. The formulation accounts for the nonlinear orbital motion of the satellites, and derives Nc and _Nc expressions for Monte Carlo simulations as well as semi-analytical approximations for single- and multi-encounter interactions.

Collision Rates↗
NASA NTRS2023

Compressible Turbulence in the Near-Sun Solar Wind Parker Solar Probe's First Eight Perihelia

Many questions remain about the compressibility of solar wind turbulence with respect to its origins and properties. Low plasma beta (ratio of thermal to magnetic pressure) environments allow for the easier generation of compressible turbulence, enabling study of the relationship between density fluctuations and turbulent Mach number. Utilizing Parker Solar Probe plasma data, we examine the normalized proton density fluctuations as a function of turbulent Mach number M t conditioned on plasma beta and cross helicity. With consideration of statistical error in the parameters computed from in situ data, we find a general result consistent with both linear-wave theory and nearly incompressible turbulence in an inhomogeneous background field. We compare observational results conditioned on plasma beta and cross helicity with 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations and observe rather significant similarities with respect to how those parameters affect the proportionality between density fluctuations and turbulent Mach number. This study further investigates the complexity of compressible turbulence as viewed by the density scaling relationship and may help better understand the compressible environment of the near-Sun solar wind.

Manuel Enrique Cuesta↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Copula-based Method to Generate Consistent Surface Pressures Under Uncertainty

This paper establishes a method to create surface pressure databases that allow for uncertainty quantification. Aerodynamic databases are critical products for launch vehicles and other aeronautical systems, and surface pressure databases are one such database that constains large quantities of data. The focus of this work is the relationship between the integrated force and moment data base and the surface pressure database. In particular, the work attempts to provide a method that maintains consistency between these two databases when accounting for uncertainty. The integrated force and moment database and surface pressure databases are constructed from CFD data which is high-density but low-trust. However, the force and moment database will often also include data from high-trust but low-density sources such as from wind tunnel experiments. This means that the quantified uncertainty of the force and moment database is higher quality as it includes this high fidelity wind tunnel data. This motivates the idea to use the force and moment database uncertainty when constructing the surface pressure database uncertainty. The method utilizes the statistical idea of a copula in order to generate surface pressures that match with uncertain integrated force and moment distributions as well as being consistent with known CFD data. This statistical consistency is quantified by using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy two-sample test. The predictive error of the method is also approximated using leave-one-out error estimation and the good overall performance of the method is presented using probability boxes in a simulated uncertainty scenario.

SLS↗
NASA NTRS1980

Modeling a maintenance simulation of the geosynchronous platform

A modeling technique used to conduct a simulation study comparing various maintenance routines for a space platform is dicussed. A system model is described and illustrated, the basic concepts of a simulation pass are detailed, and sections on failures and maintenance are included. The operation of the system across time is best modeled by a discrete event approach with two basic events - failure and maintenance of the system. Each overall simulation run consists of introducing a particular model of the physical system, together with a maintenance policy, demand function, and mission lifetime. The system is then run through many passes, each pass corresponding to one mission and the model is re-initialized before each pass. Statistics are compiled at the end of each pass and after the last pass a report is printed. Items of interest typically include the time to first maintenance, total number of maintenance trips for each pass, average capability of the system, etc.

Kleiner, A. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1984

NOAA/NASA Joint Simulation of AMTS and HIRS

Sounding simulation test was designed to compare the relative accuracies of atmospheric temperature profiles retrieved from HIRS2, the current operational infrared temperature sounder, and AMTS, a proposed advanced high spectral resolution infrared sounder. Retrievals generated by GLAS, using their physical retrieval algorithm, and NESDIS, using their operational statistical regression algorithm, for both instruments under clear and cloudy conditions were compared. In the cloudy portion of the test, MSU data, corresponding to the microwave component of the current operational sounding system, was used in conjunction with both instruments to aid in cloud seeding.

Susskind, J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On hairpin vortices as model of wall turbulence structure

A model of the hairpin vortex has been constructed and used in two distinct but related approaches. The first approach is kinematic in nature in which a synthesis procedure using hairpin vortices to provide a quantitative link between mean flow quantities and the statistical quantities of near wall turbulence has become developed. The second approach is dynamic in nature, and the evolution of an incipient 'representative' hairpin vortex as well as the distortion of a background laminar boundary layer flow, in which the hairpin vortex is immersed, has been simulated by numerical solution of the unsteady, three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations.

Liu, N.-S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Design and validation of fault-tolerant flight systems

Flight systems must be validated to show that they are consistent with the requirements of their intended applications. While high reliability is difficult to validate, the additional complexity of fault tolerance further compounds the validation problem. The objective of NASA’s research is to develop a methodology for designing validatable fault-tolerant systems. Under the design-for-validation philosophy, emphasis is placed on developing validation methods that can be incorporated into the design process right from the start and design methods and guidance which, while incorporating fault tolerance, can assure validatability. This paper examines the statistical issues of validating highly reliable, fault tolerant system. There are many problems associated with traditional methods of designing and validating these potentially complex hardware and software systems. Useful design-for-validation methods, which include structured specification and design methodologies, mathematical proof techniques, analytical modeling, simulation and emulation, and physical testing, are discussed. Important design issues associated with fault tolerance are presented along with the related validation concerns which must be addressed. Experience has shown that synchronization and Byzantine resilience must accompany fault tolerance. Other design attributes associated with fault tolerance may be used by a designer on the basis of cost, weight, performance, and validation considerations.

Computer systems↗
NASA NTRS1991

New method for estimating low-earth-orbit collision probabilities

An unconventional but general method is described for estimating the probability of collision between an earth-orbiting spacecraft and orbital debris. This method uses a Monte Caralo simulation of the orbital motion of the target spacecraft and each discrete debris object to generate an empirical set of distances, each distance representing the separation between the spacecraft and the nearest debris object at random times. Using concepts from the asymptotic theory of extreme order statistics, an analytical density function is fitted to this set of minimum distances. From this function, it is possible to generate realistic collision estimates for the spacecraft.

Vedder, John D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Extracting galactic structure parameters from multivariated density estimation

Multivariate statistical analysis, including includes cluster analysis (unsupervised classification), discriminant analysis (supervised classification) and principle component analysis (dimensionlity reduction method), and nonparameter density estimation have been successfully used to search for meaningful associations in the 5-dimensional space of observables between observed points and the sets of simulated points generated from a synthetic approach of galaxy modelling. These methodologies can be applied as the new tools to obtain information about hidden structure otherwise unrecognizable, and place important constraints on the space distribution of various stellar populations in the Milky Way. In this paper, we concentrate on illustrating how to use nonparameter density estimation to substitute for the true densities in both of the simulating sample and real sample in the five-dimensional space. In order to fit model predicted densities to reality, we derive a set of equations which include n lines (where n is the total number of observed points) and m (where m: the numbers of predefined groups) unknown parameters. A least-square estimation will allow us to determine the density law of different groups and components in the Galaxy. The output from our software, which can be used in many research fields, will also give out the systematic error between the model and the observation by a Bayes rule.

Chen, B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Implications of the BATSE data for a helocentric origin of gamma-ray bursts

Several possible models have been suggested to explain the observed distribution of gamma-ray bursts: heliocentric distributions such as the Oort cloud, large galactic halos, and cosmological models. We report here on an investigation into the implications of the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) gamma-ray burst distribution (Meegan et al. 1992a) data on the possible helocentric origin of gamma-ray bursts. We find no statistically significant anisotropy in the angular distribution of the bursts in a Sun-referenced coordinate system; there is no dipole moment in the direction of the Sun, and no quardrupole moment associated with the ecliptic plane. We have employed direct analytic calculations and Monte Carlo simulations of sources in the Oort cloud to constrain possible helicentric burst distributions. These can produce distributions consistent with the observed angular isotropy, the meal value of V/V(sub max), and the observed C/C(sub min) distribution of BATSE, and provide limits to burst energy of a few times approximately 10(exp 27) ergs. However, the agreement of the heliocentric C/C(sub min) distributions with the BATSE data is attributable to the relatively limited sampling of strong, nearby bursts. These bursts are known from observation to be homogeneously distributed, yet the density of sources in the Oort cloud is not constant in this region. Integral number-intensity distributions from the Oort cloud for larger numbers of bursts cannot reproduce the known homogeneity of the strong bursts without modification to the computed cometary number density and are therefore unlikely explanations of the gamma-ray burst distribution.

Horack, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Cloud and Aerosol Retrieval for the 2001 GLAS Satellite Lidar Mission

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) is scheduled for launch in July of 2001 aboard the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESAT). In addition to being a precision altimeter for mapping the height of the Earth's icesheets, GLAS will be an atmospheric lidar, sensitive enough to detect gaseous, aerosol, and cloud backscatter signals, at horizontal and vertical resolutions of 175 and 75m, respectively. GLAS will be the first lidar to produce temporally continuous atmospheric backscatter profiles with nearly global coverage (94-degree orbital inclination). With a projected operational lifetime of five years, GLAS will collect approximately six billion lidar return profiles. The large volume of data dictates that operational analysis algorithms, which need to keep pace with the data yield of the instrument, must be efficient. So, we need to evaluate the ability of operational algorithms to detect atmospheric constituents that affect global climate. We have to quantify, in a statistical manner, the accuracy and precision of GLAS cloud and aerosol observations. Our poster presentation will show the results of modeling studies that are designed to reveal the effectiveness and sensitivity of GLAS in detecting various atmospheric cloud and aerosol features. The studies consist of analyzing simulated lidar returns. Simulation cases are constructed either from idealized renditions of atmospheric cloud and aerosol layers or from data obtained by the NASA ER-2 Cloud Lidar System (CLS). The fabricated renditions permit quantitative evaluations of operational algorithms to retrieve cloud and aerosol parameters. The use of observational data permits the evaluations of performance for actual atmospheric conditions. The intended outcome of the presentation is that climatology community will be able to use the results of these studies to evaluate and quantify the impact of GLAS data upon atmospheric modeling efforts.

Hart, William D.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Hybrid MD-Nernst Planck Model of Alpha-hemolysin Conductance Properties

Motivated by experiments in which an applied electric field translocates polynucleotides through an alpha-hemolysin protein channel causing ionic current transient blockade, a hybrid simulation model is proposed to predict the conductance properties of the open channel. Time scales corresponding to ion permeation processes are reached using the Poisson-Nemst-Planck (PNP) electro-diffusion model in which both solvent and local ion concentrations are represented as a continuum. The diffusion coefficients of the ions (K(+) and Cl(-)) input in the PNP model are, however, calculated from all-atom molecular dynamics (MD). In the MD simulations, a reduced representation of the channel is used. The channel is solvated in a 1 M KCI solution, and an external electric field is applied. The pore specific diffusion coefficients for both ionic species are reduced 5-7 times in comparison to bulk values. Significant statistical variations (17-45%) of the pore-ions diffusivities are observed. Within the statistics, the ionic diffusivities remain invariable for a range of external applied voltages between 30 and 240mV. In the 2D-PNP calculations, the pore stem is approximated by a smooth cylinder of radius approx. 9A with two constriction blocks where the radius is reduced to approx. 6A. The electrostatic potential includes the contribution from the atomistic charges. The MD-PNP model shows that the atomic charges are responsible for the rectifying behaviour and for the slight anion selectivity of the a-hemolysin pore. Independent of the hierarchy between the anion and cation diffusivities, the anionic contribution to the total ionic current will dominate. The predictions of the MD-PNP model are in good agreement with experimental data and give confidence in the present approach of bridging time scales by combining a microscopic and macroscopic model.

Cozmuta, Ioana↗
NASA NTRS2014

Submillimeter Galaxies as Progenitors of Compact Quiescent Galaxies

Three billion years after the big bang (at redshift z = 2), half of the most massive galaxies were already old, quiescent systems with little to no residual star formation and extremely compact with stellar mass densities at least an order of magnitude larger than in low-redshift ellipticals, their descendants. Little is known about how they formed, but their evolved, dense stellar populations suggest formation within intense, compact starbursts 1-2 Gyr earlier (at 3 < z < 6). Simulations show that gas-rich major mergers can give rise to such starbursts, which produce dense remnants. Submillimeter-selected galaxies (SMGs) are prime examples of intense, gas-rich starbursts.With a new, representative spectroscopic sample of compact, quiescent galaxies at z = 2 and a statistically well-understood sample of SMGs, we show that z = 3-6 SMGs are consistent with being the progenitors of z = 2 quiescent galaxies, matching their formation redshifts and their distributions of sizes, stellar masses, and internal velocities. Assuming an evolutionary connection, their space densities also match if the mean duty cycle of SMG starbursts is 42(sup+40) −29 Myr (consistent with independent estimates), which indicates that the bulk of stars in these massive galaxies were formed in a major, early surge of star formation. These results suggest a coherent picture of the formation history of the most massive galaxies in the universe, from their initial burst of violent star formation through their appearance as high stellar-density galaxy cores and to their ultimate fate as giant ellipticals.

Cosmology - Observations↗