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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Cosmic Ray Hits in the Central Nervous System at Solar Maximum

It has been suggested that a manned mission to Mars be launched at solar maximum rather than at solar minimum to minimize the radiation exposure to galactic cosmic rays. It is true that the number of hits from highly ionizing particles to critical regions in the brain will be less at solar maximum, and it is of some interest to estimate how much less. We present here calculations for several sites within the brain from iron ions (z = 26) and from particles with charge, z, greater than or equal to 15. The same shielding configurations and sites in the brain used in an earlier paper for solar minimum are employed so that direct comparison of results between the two solar activity conditions can be made. A simple pressure-vessel wall and an equipment room onboard a spacecraft are chosen as shielding examples. In the equipment room, typical results for the thalamus (100 mm2 area) are that the probability of any given cell nucleus being hit decreases from 10 percent at solar minimum to 6 percent at solar maximum for particles with z greater than or equal to 15 and from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent for iron ions. We conclude that this modest decrease in hit frequency (less than a factor of two) is not a compelling reason to avoid solar minimum for a manned mission to Mars.

Curtis, S. B.↗

Optimization of Crew Shielding Requirement in Reactor-Powered Lunar Surface Missions

On the surface of the moon -and not only during heightened solar activities- the radiation environment As such that crew protection will be required for missions lasting in excess of six months. This study focuses on estimating the optimized crew shielding requirement for lunar surface missions with a nuclear option. Simple, transport-simulation based dose-depth relations of the three (galactic, solar, and fission) radiation sources am employed in a 1-dimensional optimization scheme. The scheme is developed to estimate the total required mass of lunar-regolith separating reactor from crew. The scheme was applied to both solar maximum and minimum conditions. It is shown that savings of up to 30% in regolith mass can be realized. It is argued, however, that inherent variation and uncertainty -mainly in lunar regolith attenuation properties in addition to the radiation quality factor- can easily defeat this and similar optimization schemes.

Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.↗

Coronal Mass Ejections - A Statistical View

Although first recognized in 1971, the quasi-continuous record since 1979 of the appearance of coronal mass ejections (CMEs-perhaps more appropriately called coronal magnetic ejections) has resulted in a stable understanding of their properties, at least from a statistical viewpoint. These eruptions occur every few days during solar activity minimum and many times per day during maximum. They are believed to play an important role throughout the heliosphere in such diverse events as removing helicity from the corona; modulating the energetic particle environment in the inner heliosphere; causing severe geomagnetic storms at Earth and other magnetic bodies throughout the solar system; and controlling the galactic cosmic ray flux. It is therefore understandable that researchers have studied both individual events and the ensemble of CMEs observed over several solar cycles. We will present an overview of these statistics, some new recent observations, and a personal perspective on potential paths of future research.

SaintCyr, O. C.↗

Development of Solar Flare and Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP 3 )

Solar activity is a primary factor determining the state of the Earth’s space environment, geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, and radiation hazards. In the current state of knowledge, machine learning (ML) methods provide essential tools for processing data, investigating relationships among various physical properties and characteristics, uncovering hidden connections, and predicting hazardous solar events. The primary difficulty in developing and applying modern machine-learning tools in heliophysics is that the essential data are scattered among over a hundred data repositories developed by instrument teams of space missions and ground-based observatories. In addition, statistical and ML methods require long time series of homogeneous measurements. To facilitate ML-ready data preparation and access, we have developed an interactive database of solar flares integrating the most essential datasets (https://solarflare.njit.edu/). The database performs an initial data processing and is automatically updated. In addition, we are developing the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3, https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow users to retrieve the database records. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. The interactive widget can display soft X-ray and proton flux time series from GOES satellites and the flare records. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of solar proton events and investigate machine-learning approaches to SEP prediction.

SMD↗

Remote Determination of Auroral Energy Characteristics During Substorm Activity

Ultraviolet auroral images from the Ultraviolet Imager onboard the POLAR satellite can be used as quantitative remote diagnostics of the auroral regions, yielding estimates of incident energy characteristics, compositional changes, and other higher order data products. In particular, images of long and short wavelength N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) emissions can be modeled to obtain functions of energy flux and average energy that are basically insensitive to changes in seasonal and solar activity changes. This technique is used in this study to estimate incident electron energy flux and average energy during substorm activity occurring on May 19, 1996. This event was simultaneously observed by WIND, GEOTAIL, INTERBALL, DMSP and NOAA spacecraft as well as by POLAR. Here incident energy estimates derived from Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) are compared with in situ measurements of the same parameters from an overflight by the DMSP F12 satellite coincident with the UVI image times.

Germany, G. A.↗

Comment on 'The solar flare myth' by J. T. Gosling

In a recent paper Gosling (1993) claims that solar flares are relatively unimportant for understanding the terrestrial consequences of solar activity, and argues that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produce the most powerful terrestrial disturbances. This opinion conflicts with observation, as it is well known that CMEs and flares are closely associated, and we disagree with Gosling's insistence on a simplistic cause-and-effect description of the interrelated phenomena of a solar flare. In this brief response we present new Yohkoh data and review older results that demonstrate the close relationships among CMEs, flares, filament eruptions, and other forms of energy release such as particle acceleration.

Hudson, Hugh↗

Distances to the termination shock and heliopause from a simulation analysis of the 1992-93 heliospheric radio emission event

A new heliospheric radio emission event observed by Voyagers 1 and 2 in mid-1992 is believed to have been produced by the interaction of an interplanetary shock with the heliopause. The shock is thought to have oriented near the Sun during a period of intense solar activity in late-May and early-June, 1991. The observed travel time of the shock to the heliopause is 408 days; the initial speed is estimated to be between 600 and 800 km/s. We use a numerical gasdynamic simulation of an interplanetary shock, propagating through an equilibrium solution of the solar wind/interstellar medium interaction, to compute the distances to the termination shock and the heliopause that are consistent with these observations. For a shock speed of 600 km/s, the termination shock is located at 92 AU, and the heliopause is located at 128 AU. These distances increase to 112 AU and 156 AU when the shock speed is increased to 800 km/s.

Steinolfson, R. S.↗

Effects of Increasing Drag on Conjunction Assessment

Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis relies heavily on the computation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) and the understanding of the sensitivity of this calculation to the position errors as defined by the covariance. In Low Earth Orbit (LEO), covariance is predominantly driven by perturbations due to atmospheric drag. This paper describes the effects of increasing atmospheric drag through Solar Cycle 24 on Pc calculations. The process of determining these effects is found through analyzing solar flux predictions on Energy Dissipation Rate (EDR), historical relationship between EDR and covariance, and the sensitivity of Pc to covariance. It is discovered that while all LEO satellites will be affected by the increase in solar activity, the relative effect is more significant in the LEO regime around 700 kilometers in altitude compared to 400 kilometers. Furthermore, it is shown that higher Pc values can be expected at larger close approach miss distances. Understanding these counter-intuitive results is important to setting Owner/Operator expectations concerning conjunctions as solar maximum approaches.

Frigm, Ryan Clayton↗

Solar Coronal Jets: Observations, Theory, and Modeling

Coronal jets represent important manifestations of ubiquitous solar transients, which may be the source of significant mass and energy input to the upper solar atmosphere and the solar wind. While the energy involved in a jet-like event is smaller than that of "nominal" solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), jets share many common properties with these phenomena, in particular, the explosive magnetically driven dynamics. Studies of jets could, therefore, provide critical insight for understanding the larger, more complex drivers of the solar activity. On the other side of the size-spectrum, the study of jets could also supply important clues on the physics of transients close or at the limit of the current spatial resolution such as spicules. Furthermore, jet phenomena may hint to basic process for heating the corona and accelerating the solar wind; consequently their study gives us the opportunity to attack a broad range of solar-heliospheric problems.

Raouafi, N. E.↗

The solar wind neon abundance observed with ACE/SWICS and ULYSSES/SWICS

Using in situ ion spectrometry data from ACE/SWICS, we determine the solar wind Ne/O elemental abundance ratio and examine its dependence on wind speed and evolution with the solar cycle. We find that Ne/O is inversely correlated with wind speed, is nearly constant in the fast wind, and correlates strongly with solar activity in the slow wind. In fast wind streams with speeds above 600 km s{sup –1}, we find Ne/O = 0.10 ± 0.02, in good agreement with the extensive polar observations by Ulysses/SWICS. In slow wind streams with speeds below 400 km s{sup –1}, Ne/O ranges from a low of 0.12 ± 0.02 at solar maximum to a high of 0.17 ± 0.03 at solar minimum. These measurements place new and significant empirical constraints on the fractionation mechanisms governing solar wind composition and have implications for the coronal and photospheric abundances of neon and oxygen. The results are made possible by a new data analysis method that robustly identifies rare elements in the measured ion spectra. The method is also applied to Ulysses/SWICS data, which confirms the ACE observations and extends our view of solar wind neon into the three-dimensional heliosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solar modulation of atmospheric electrification through variation of the conductivity over thunderstorms

Variations of the current in the global atmospheric electrical circuit can be produced through regulation of the resistance between the tops of thunderclouds and the ionosphere. Long-and short-term changes in the conductivity of this region occur due to changes in the ionization rate resulting from solar activity. Previous suggestions that the phenomena might be due to conductivity variations in the fair weather part of the world or an influx of space charge to the upper atmosphere are considered unlikely. It might be possible to test the proposed mechanism by measuring the temporal variation of the ionospheric potential during disturbed solar periods. Another approach would be to measure simultaneously the variation in ionization rate and electric current over thunder-storms. Several ways in which changes in atmospheric electrification might influence other meteorological phenomena are mentioned.

Markson, R.↗

Optimization of Crew Shielding Requirement in Reactor-Powered Lunar Surface Missions

On the surface of the moon and not only during heightened solar activities the radiation environment is such that crew protection will be required for missions lasting in excess of six months. This study focuses on estimating the optimized crew shielding requirement for lunar surface missions with a nuclear option. Simple, transport-simulation based dose-depth relations of the three radiation sources (galactic, solar, and fission) are employed in a one-dimensional optimization scheme. The scheme is developed to estimate the total required mass of lunar regolith separating reactor from crew. The scheme was applied to both solar maximum and minimum conditions. It is shown that savings of up to 30% in regolith mass can be realized. It is argued, however, that inherent variation and uncertainty mainly in lunar regolith attenuation properties in addition to the radiation quality factor can easily defeat this and similar optimization schemes.

Barghouty, A. F.↗

Integrating Kinetic Effects into Global Models for Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection is the most striking example of how the coupling between global and kinetic scales can lead to fast energy release. Explosive solar activity, such as coronal mass ejections and flares for example, is widely believed to be due to the release of magnetic energy stored on global scales by magnetic reconnection operating on kinetic scales. Understanding how processes couple across spatial scales is one of the most difficult challenges in all of physics, and is undoubtedly the main obstacle to developing predictive models for the Sun's activity. Consequently, the NASA Living With a Star Program selected a Focused Science Team to attack the problem of cross-scale coupling in reconnection. In this talk I will present some of the results of the Team and review our latest theories and methods for modeling the global-local coupling in solar reconnection.

Antiochos, S. K.↗

What Do Halo Cmes Tell Us About Solar Cycle 25?

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗

MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATION OF THE X2.2 SOLAR FLARE ON 2011 FEBRUARY 15. II. DYNAMICS CONNECTING THE SOLAR FLARE AND THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION

We clarify a relationship between the dynamics of a solar flare and a growing coronal mass ejection (CME) by investigating the dynamics of magnetic fields during the X2.2-class flare taking place in the solar active region 11158 on 2011 February 15, based on simulation results obtained from Inoue et al. We found that the strongly twisted lines formed through tether-cutting reconnection in the twisted lines of a nonlinear force-free field can break the force balance within the magnetic field, resulting in their launch from the solar surface. We further discover that a large-scale flux tube is formed during the eruption as a result of the tether-cutting reconnection between the eruptive strongly twisted lines and these ambient weakly twisted lines. The newly formed large flux tube exceeds the critical height of the torus instability. Tether-cutting reconnection thus plays an important role in the triggering of a CME. Furthermore, we found that the tangential fields at the solar surface illustrate different phases in the formation of the flux tube and its ascending phase over the threshold of the torus instability. We will discuss these dynamics in detail.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solar modulation of atmospheric electrification through variation of the conductivity over thunderstorms

It is suggested that variations of the current in the global atmospheric electrical circuit can be produced through regulation of the resistance between the tops of thunderclouds and the ionosphere. Long- and short-term changes in the conductivity of this region occur due to changes in the ionization rate resulting from solar activity. Previous suggestions that the phenomena might be due to conductivity variations in the fair weather part of the world or an influx of space charge to the upper atmosphere are discussed and considered unlikely. It might be possible to test the proposed mechanism by measuring the temporal variation of the ionospheric potential during distributed solar periods. Another approach would be to measure simultaneously the variation in ionization rate and electric current over thunderstorms. Several ways in which changes in atmospheric electrification might influence other meteorological phenomena are mentioned.

Markson, R.↗

Electron parameter correlations in high-speed streams and heat flux instabilities

Statistical electron parameter correlations associated with high-speed streams are determined with the aim of identifying one or more locally active solar wind heat flux instabilities. Evidence that points toward local regulation of the heat flux at 1 AU is presented, and the results of a search for special signatures expected from the action of the Alfven, magnetosonic, and whistler flux instabilities are discussed. It is shown that under certain conditions, the whistler mode can be active in regulating the heat flux at 1 AU.

Feldman, W. C.↗

Solar X-ray spectroscopy with a Bent Crystal Spectrometer /BCS/

A high-resolution Bent Crystal Spectrometer (BCS) which provides simultaneous and continuous time coverage of a range of wavelengths is described; its application to spectral studies of solar X-ray emission is discussed. Design of the BCS and its accompanying position-sensitive detector is considered. Calibrations of the crystal curvature, the angle between a crystal reference plane and the collimator axis, and the position response of the position-sensitive proportional counter in determining absolute wavelengths are also mentioned. An active solar region spectrum obtained during an airborne BCS test is compared to wavelength data derived from theory or previous experiments, and excellent agreement is found. Specifications for a BCS system to be used in the Solar Maximum Mission satellite of 1979 are given.

Rapley, C. G.↗