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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty for Western North America

Abstract Climate change research uses an ensemble of general circulation model runs (GCMs-runs) to predict future climate under uncertainties. To reduce computational costs, this study selects representative GCM-runs (RGCM-runs) for Western North America (WNA) based on their performance in replicating historical climate conditions from 1981 to 2005 and projecting future changes from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100. This evaluation is conducted under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. By using an envelope-based selection technique and a multi-objective distance-based approach, we identify four RGCM-runs per RCP representing diverse climatic conditions, including wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, and dry-cold. Compared to the full-set, these selected runs show a decreased mean absolute error (MAE) between the reference and RGCM-runs concerning the monthly average mean air temperature (T̄) and precipitation (P̄). For RCP4.5, T̄ MAE is 0.45 (vs. 0.58 in the full-set) and P̄ MAE is 0.31 (vs. 0.42). For RCP8.5, T̄ MAE is 0.51 (vs. 0.75) and P̄ MAE is 0.25 (vs. 0.36). The lower MAE values in the RGCM-run set indicate closer alignment between predicted and reference values, making the RGCM-run suitable for climate impact assessments in the region.

Water Resources↗

Helium recovery system at IB3a

The increasing need for optimal and sustainable use of cryogenic resources to support Fermilab’s scientific mission has highlighted the necessity of improving the Laboratory’s helium management practices. An assessment of cryogenic test facilities identified the Technical Division’s Industrial Building 3a (IB3A) as a key site requiring upgrades to integrate a helium recovery system. The IB3A facility is essential for characterizing and testing superconductors, cables, and coils for various R&D projects, including the US High-Luminosity LHC Accelerator Upgrade Project (AUP), Mu2e, and other external collaborations. Currently, the facility relies on 500 L helium Dewars and vents the vaporized helium directly into the atmosphere, leading to significant helium loss. Given the non-renewable nature of helium, recovering and reusing this resource is critical for the sustainability of Fermilab’s operations. To address this challenge, a project has been initiated to connect IB3A to an existing helium purification station and refrigeration system located in another building via a dedicated pipeline pass over the roof of several buildings. This solution will enable the efficient capture of vented helium, its transfer to the purification station, and subsequent liquefaction for reuse in future operations. The project includes a detailed design phase, specifying the pipeline route, flow control mechanisms, and integration with the existing cryogenic infrastructure, followed by phased implementation and commissioning. By implementing this pipeline connection and upgrading IB3A, Fermilab aims to significantly reduce helium waste, lower operational costs, and align with its commitment to sustainability. This initiative provides a model for resource-efficient cryogenic operations and reinforces the Laboratory’s capacity to support its science mission for the long term.

Porwisiak, D. [Fermilab]↗

Sim-Situ: A Framework for the Faithful Simulation of in situ Processing

The amount of data generated by numerical simulations in various scientific domains led to a fundamental redesign of how the analysis and visualization of simulation outputs are performed. The throughput and capacity of storage subsystems have not evolved as fast as the computing power in extreme-scale supercomputers, making the classical post-hoc approach highly inefficient. In situ processing has then emerged as a solution in which simulation and data analysis/visualization are intertwined for better performance and greater interactivity.Determining the best allocation, i.e., how many resources to allocate to simulation and analysis respectively, mapping, i.e., where and at which frequency to run the analysis/visualization, and data transfer mode is a complex task whose performance assessment is crucial to the efficient execution of in situ processing. However, such a performance evaluation of different strategies usually relies either on directly running them on the targeted execution environments, which can rapidly become extremely time- and resource-consuming, or on resorting to simplified models of the components of an in situ application, which can lack of realism. In both cases, the validity of the performance evaluation is limited.In this paper, we present Sim-Situ, a simulation-based framework for the faithful performance evaluation of in situ processing strategies. We designed Sim-Situ to reflect the typical features of in situ processing systems. Thanks to its modular design, Sim-situ has the necessary flexibility to easily and faithfully evaluate the behavior and performance of various allocation, mapping, and data transfer strategies. We illustrate the simulation capabilities of Sim-Situ on a Molecular Dynamics use case. We study the impact of different strategies on performance and show how users can leverage Sim-Situ to determine interesting tradeoffs when adding analysis/visualization components to their application.

Honoré, Valentin↗

CO2 Storage Site Analysis, Screening, and Resource Estimation for Cenozoic Offshore Reservoirs in the Central Gulf of Mexico

The storage potential of hydrocarbon reservoirs in the central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) makes future development of CO2 storage projects in those areas promising for secure, large-scale, and long-term storage purposes. Focusing on the producing and depleted hydrocarbon fields in the continental slope of the central GOM, this paper analyzed, assessed, and screened the producing sands and evaluated their CO2 storage potential. A live interactive CO2 storage site screening system was built in the SAS® Viya system with a broad range of screening criteria combined from published studies. This offers the users a real-time assessment of the storage sites and enables them to adjust the filters and visualize the results to determine the most suitable filter range. The CO2 storage resources of the sands were estimated using a volumetric equation and the correlation developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). The results of this study indicate that 1.05 gigatons of CO2 storage resources are available in the developed reservoirs at the upper slope area of the central GOM. The Mississippi Canyon and Green Canyon protraction areas contain the fields with the largest storage resources.

Hu, Xitong↗

Assessing the effects of landcover and land use change on wildfire exposure and risk to communities and olive orchards in Mediterranean landscapes

A growing concern in the Mediterranean region is that recent landcover and land use change is increasing wildfire risk, or the exposure and impacts of wildfire to valued resources. However, the magnitude of these effects is not well understood given the widely diverse landscapes of communities, natural vegetation, and agricultural land. In this study, we use wildfire simulation modeling to assess how landcover and land use changes in three areas of southern Greece have affected exposure of- and fire risk to- communities and economically important permanent agriculture such as Olea europaea (European olive) orchards. We mapped agricultural and wildland fuel change from 2000 to 2020 and simulated fuel scenarios in agricultural land to assess the impacts of agricultural land practices, such as understory clearing, on fire risk. We show that wildfire exposure and risk to communities and permanent agriculture has increased in some areas due to natural fuel densification and decreased in other areas, mainly due to agricultural land expansion. These results highlight that wildfire exposure and risk are driven by local conditions including density and location of communities, spatial arrangement of natural fuels and agricultural land, and agricultural land use practices. Human settlement burn probability and modeled permanent crop loss increased with greater unmaintained agricultural area in all study areas, emphasizing the importance of agricultural land maintenance practices, such as understory clearing, to reduce fuel continuity and fire intensity. Ultimately, quantitative fire risk analyses such as this study provide a useful framework to identify areas of concern where either fuel mitigation or landowner incentives to maintain agricultural land in a less-burnable condition could be applied.

Aaron M Sparks↗

Examining Artifacts from GLOBE Program Research Symposia & Using Network Analysis Techniques to Characterize Students’ Authentic STEM Investigations

For the past several years, the GLOBE Program's International Virtual Science Symposia (IVSS) and Student Research Symposia (SRS) have provided opportunities for U.S. and international students to present their Earth science research investigations to the GLOBE community through online or in-person events. This presentation will share the techniques and findings of an evaluation study that used student posters and written reports to characterize their research investigations through multiple lenses and frameworks. The study began with a list of characteristics drawn from a literature review, an analysis of sample projects, and several reviews by expert stakeholders and scientists, which comprehensively covered diverse relevant frameworks including citizen science, student STEM learning through authentic experiences, and The GLOBE Program model. Once applied to 207 student projects, this list of codes revealed the frequency and prevalence of various qualities and experiences represented by GLOBE student research investigations. An innovative application of social network analysis techniques to the coded dataset revealed frequently cooccurring characteristics. This networking approach identified and conceptually mapped several "clusters" of characteristics that typified student projects, empirically based on the submitted projects themselves. The basic quantitative investigation of frequencies indicates the extent to which various characteristics are present in - or absent from - GLOBE SRS and IVSS projects, while the network analysis provides a descriptive framework for typifying projects. Ultimately, the descriptive framework fostered a suite of assessment tools to help The GLOBE Program's staff, scientists, and research project judges understand the diversity of student research projects. GLOBE can use these tools to identify and respond to areas of need; for instance, the descriptive framework illustrates the potential for further education and training resources related to data analysis, interpretation of data, and credibility of scientific claims. This presentation will share the novel utilization of network analysis techniques to holistically assess and react to student research contributions.

Ann Martin↗

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Assessment of lignite upgrade and hydrogen evolution via electrolysis

Lignite, considered as the lowest-rank coal, accounts for 45% of the total coal resources worldwide, and its low carbon and high ash contents limit its large-scale application. In order to upgrade lignite effectively, a modified coal electrolytic cell (MCEC) was designed, built, and then evaluated for lignite upgrade and hydrogen production through electrolysis, and the operating conditions were optimized. The results show that the performance of the MCEC outperformed the previous coal electrolytic cell (CEC). The operating temperature and iron concentration significantly impact the average current density per milligram of catalyst (ACDMC). The content of dry fixed carbon and heating value increased by 20.9% (wt%) and 8.15%, respectively, in electrolyzed lignite compared with raw lignite. Besides, 71.5% ash and 39.6% mercury were removed from raw lignite after electrolysis, which is the first report. The Faradaic efficiency (FE) for hydrogen evolution reached 99% using MCEC. In addition, the analysis of spectroscopy methods (SEM, EDX, FTIR, and XRD) revealed that the lignite particles were cracked; the oxygen-containing functional groups increased; the minerals of quartz and hematite formed on the surface of lignite particles after electrolysis. Furthermore, the facts indicate that electrolysis of lignite is a competitive approach for lignite upgrade and hydrogen production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Golden Gate National Recreation Area Federal Fleet Tiger Team EVSE Site Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) helps federal agencies reduce petroleum consumption and increase alternative fuel use through its resources for sustainable federal fleets. A key element of this assistance involves supporting agencies in the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Fleet electrification is part of a federal policy to achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide and a carbon pollution-free electricity sector, established through two executive orders (EOs) - EO 14008: Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad and EO 14057: Catalyzing America's Clean Energy Industries and Jobs through Federal Sustainability. This site report supports the development of a ZEV deployment plan for the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, which can ultimately be incorporated into the overall U.S. Department of the Interior ZEV fleet strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Grand Teton National Park Federal Fleet Tiger Team EVSE Site Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) helps federal agencies reduce petroleum consumption and increase alternative fuel use through its resources for sustainable federal fleets. A key element of this assistance involves supporting agencies in the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Fleet electrification is part of a federal policy to achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide and a carbon pollution-free electricity sector, established through two executive orders (EOs) - EO 14008: Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad and EO 14057: Catalyzing America's Clean Energy Industries and Jobs through Federal Sustainability. This site report supports the development of a ZEV deployment plan for the Grand Teton National Park (GRTE) that can ultimately be incorporated into the overall Department of the Interior ZEV fleet strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Development of remote sensing techniques for assessment of hydrologic conditions in coal mining regions of Appalachia

In December of 1974 the John F. Kennedy Space Center, NASA, and the Water Resources Division, United States Geological Survey (USGS), acquired photographic, thermal, and multispectral data over the Cumberland region of eastern Tennessee. This data was effectively used to delineate ground water sources, and surface water runoff into river systems in the Cumberlands. The data, coupled with an overview of the area from the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS), could be useful in determining hydrologic conditions in coal mining regions of the Appalachians.

Pope, C. D.↗

Development of alternative data analysis techniques for improving the accuracy and specificity of natural resource inventories made with remote sensing data

The applicability of digital LANDSAT data in updating the Minnesota Lake Land Management Information System and in assessing the trophic status of lakes was investigated. Data from various combinations of training, classification, and geometric correction techniques were compared to a photointerpreted reference data set consisting of ground-verified samples and six randomly selected photographs covering approximately one quarter of the study area. For a reconnaissance inventory, the training via polygons selected from aerial photographs with a canonical analysis minimum distance classifier is the most accurate and efficient analysis technique. The applications test project resulted in disappointing thematic classification results per se, but did contribute to the development of mechanisms for implementing a LANDSAT data processing capability in the State Planning Agency on a permanent basis.

Lillesand, T. M.↗

Developing Methods to Assess Changes in Mechanical Properties of Shale Modified by Engineered Mineral Precipitation

Fractures in subsurface shale formations serve multiple purposes, for example, in the recovery of resources in hydraulic fracturing or as potential harmful leakage passages through caprocks that may contribute undesired fluids to the atmosphere or functional groundwater aquifers. A proposed method to seal or influence fracture properties is Ureolysis-Induced Calcium Carbonate Precipitation (UICP), a bio-mineralization technology driven by the enzymatic hydrolysis of urea, resulting in the formation of calcium carbonate. Sporosarcina pasteurii is a common microbe used as the source of the urease enzyme that catalyzes the chemical reaction. The resulting calcium carbonate can bridge the gaps in fractured shale and reduce fluid flow through fractures. However, there is little information on how this process affects the mechanical properties of the resulting biomineralized shale. This study represents the first step toward determining the influence of UICP treatment on shale material and its subsequent mechanical strength properties. This methods development study aims to determine the effect that temperature has on the tensile strength of intact, unfractured shale cores (2.54 cm (1 in) diameter, 5.08 cm (2 in) long). Tensile strength was determined indirectly using a modified Brazilian test where the splitting tensile strength is attained by applying a compressive load onto the core. Shale cores from Eagle Ford and Wolfcamp formations were tested at both room temperature and 60°C to determine if increased temperature influences the tensile strength of the rock. This data will help to assess the necessity of testing biomineralized cores at temperature. Though 60°C may not mimic subsurface temperatures of the shales used in this study, it was chosen due to limitations of the UICP process while still approaching temperatures of shale formations. This project aims to evaluate what effect temperature has on the mechanical properties of intact shale cores so that engineered or natural rock fractures that are sealed by biomineralization can be better understood.

Bedey, Kayla↗

Report of the 90-day study on human exploration of the Moon and Mars

The basic mission sequence to achieve the President's goal is clear: begin with Space Station Freedom in the 1990's, return to the Moon to stay early in the Next century, and then journey to Mars. Five reference approaches are modeled building on past programs and recent studies to reflect wide-ranging strategies that incorporate varied program objectives, schedules, technologies, and resource availabilities. The reference approaches are (1) balance and speed; (2) the earliest possible landing on Mars; (3) reduce logistics from Earth; (4) schedule adapted to Space Station Freedom; and (5) reduced scales. The study and programmatic assessment have shown that the Human Exploration Initiative is indeed a feasible approach to achieving the President's goals. Several reasonable alternatives exist, but a long-range commitment and significant resources will be required. However, the value of the program and the benefits to the Nation are immeasurable.

Aaron Cohen↗

A modeling study of ocean thermal energy conversion resource and potential environmental effects around Kailua-Kona, Hawaii

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) offers a promising renewable energy solution through a heat exchange process using the temperature difference between warm surface seawater and cold deep seawater. Because accurate resource characterization is critical for the optimal design and implementation of OTEC systems, a high-resolution numerical model is employed to better characterize the OTEC resource at Kona, Hawaii. Our model provides detailed spatial and temporal variability of the thermal gradient, which is essential for assessing the viability and efficiency of OTEC systems. The model results reveal distinct patterns and dynamics not captured by existing observations or models (e.g., lower-resolution information). These findings highlight the importance of using high-resolution models for accurate predictions of thermal gradient variability, ultimately supporting more efficient and sustainable OTEC deployment. Additionally, the study investigates the impacts of mixed water discharge from OTEC plants that can cause shock to organisms living in the surface water and potentially destabilize the water column. Understanding these effects is vital for minimizing any potential negative environmental consequences and ensuring the long-term viability of OTEC operations. Further, our model improves OTEC resource characterization, which can lead to optimal design and deployment of OTEC systems. The analysis of OTEC water discharge impacts can accelerate the development of OTEC technologies, overcoming permitting/consenting challenges. These findings contribute to the broader adoption of high-resolution modeling in ocean energy resource characterization, particularly for OTEC applications.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Air Emissions Impacts of Fuel Substitution in the United States Cement Industry

High-heat industrial processes cannot be easily electrified, often rely on comparatively high-emitting solid fuels, and are essential for economic growth. Cement production in particular is critical to supporting construction and the expansion and maintenance of infrastructure systems in countries around the world. Fuels for cement production include petcoke, coal, and waste solvents, and their combustion contributes approximately 40% of the CO 2 emissions from global cement production. Broadening the fuel resources to include agricultural residues and other wastes can reduce emissions and divert waste from landfills. We assess the potential to use 16 different alternative fuels across the 88 integrated cement plants in the United States. The share of alternative fuels in the cement production sector could increase from the current level of 17% to as high as 73%. Fuel substitution can reduce the current fuel-related life-cycle emissions (28.6 ± 5.7 Mton CO 2 /year) by 19–45%. The greatest national-scale human health cobenefits occur when alternative fuels are prioritized at facilities currently using coal and petcoke. NO x emissions outcomes from this strategy are mixed, but SO x and particulate matter emissions reductions drive net human health benefits. These results suggest that targeted fuel substitution in heavy industries can yield outsized emissions benefits.

alternative fuels↗

Leveraging National Laboratory Assets to Address Stability Challenges due to Declining Grid Inertia Using Geographically Distributed Electrical–Thermal Co-Emulation

Due to increased penetration of low-inertia resources into the electric grid, challenges are increasing for maintaining wide-area system stability. Grid stability assessment requires a faithful representation of the multiple-physics interaction at the system level, and timescales of interaction varying in orders of magnitude, from microseconds to seconds to several minutes. Along with the simulation-based techniques, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL), controller HIL, and power HIL techniques have been developed to better understand the emergent behavior of the system with emerging technologies. US National Laboratories have played a vital role in research and development to understand the behavior of individual technologies and devices integrated to the electric grid. Each national laboratory forwards a technological and strategic initiative tied core and enabling capabilities. Due to strategic, efficiency, and economic reasons, not all the labs have assets to conduct research on all technologies concomitantly, so it becomes crucial to integrate the labs across geographies to understand the interplay of different technologies together at the system level. This approach avoids duplication of the assets at different lab facilities and helps understand the integrated system behavior of various technologies representative of actual grid conditions by connecting multiple national labs. This article talks about techniques of connecting three national laboratories to enable co-emulation of electrical–mechanical–thermal characteristics of devices and systems. Such an approach can be used to understand the dynamic and transient interaction of multi-physics in a system level, at-scale emulation using real-time simulation tools and techniques.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗