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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

The Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts. Our coupled model is composed of a primitive equation ocean model for the tropical Indo-Pacific region that is coupled with the global SPEEDY atmospheric model (Molteni, 2003). The Ensemble Reduced Order Kalman Filter is used to assimilate observations to constrain dynamics and thermodynamics for initialization of the coupled model. The baseline experiment assimilates satellite sea level, SST, and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations. This baseline is then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (version 4.0) and SMAP (version 2.0) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from Sep. 2011 to Dec. 2016. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation after 1 out to 12 month forecast lead times. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. SST differences at initialization force wide-spread downwelling favorable curl over most of the tropical Pacific. Over an average forecast, SST remains warmer with SSS assimilation at the eastern edge of the warm pool. This warm SST propagates into the eastern Pacific and drags westerly wind anomalies eastward into the NINO3.4 region. In addition, salting near the ITCZ leads to a deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline near 8N. These patterns together lead to a funneling effect that provides the background state to amplify equatorial Kelvin waves. We show that the downwelling Kelvin waves are amplified by assimilating satellite SSS and lead to significantly improved forecasts particularly for the 2015 El Nino.

SST↗

A Transdisciplinary Review of Deep Learning Research and Its Relevance for Water Resources Scientists

Deep learning (DL), a new generation of artificial neural network research, has transformed industries, daily lives, and various scientific disciplines in recent years. DL represents significant progress in the ability of neural networks to automatically engineer problem-relevant features and capture highly complex data distributions. I argue that DL can help address several major new and old challenges facing research in water sciences such as interdisciplinarity, data discoverability, hydrologic scaling, equifinality, and needs for parameter regionalization. This review paper is intended to provide water resources scientists and hydrologists in particular with a simple technical overview, transdisciplinary progress update, and a source of inspiration about the relevance of DL to water. The review reveals that various physical and geoscientific disciplines have utilized DL to address data challenges, improve efficiency, and gain scientific insights. DL is especially suited for information extraction from image-like data and sequential data. Techniques and experiences presented in other disciplines are of high relevance to water research. Meanwhile, less noticed is that DL may also serve as a scientific exploratory tool. A new area termed AI neuroscience , where scientists interpret the decision process of deep networks and derive insights, has been born. This budding subdiscipline has demonstrated methods including correlation-based analysis, inversion of network-extracted features, reduced-order approximations by interpretable models, and attribution of network decisions to inputs. Moreover, DL can also use data to condition neurons that mimic problem-specific fundamental organizing units, thus revealing emergent behaviors of these units. Vast opportunities exist for DL to propel advances in water sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Self-Secure Inverters Against Malicious Setpoints

The next generation of grid-interactive inverters brings a communication feature that allows data sharing from utility supervisory controllers and smart devices that are connected to the same network. This feature enhances the control capabilities of grid-interactive inverters to provide services beyond active power injection. However, communication networks entail more vulnerable surfaces to malicious attacks that may result in modifying active and reactive power setpoints and causing weak-grid conditions or abnormal inverter operation. In this paper, steady-state and the dynamic behavior of the inverter for the incoming setpoints are analyzed to detect false data injection attacks and provide device-level security. The steady-state behavior of the inverter in the operating region is determined from the grid parameters such as the grid voltage and the grid impedance. These estimations are accomplished by the proposed self-security technique through a low-frequency signal injection-based approach combined with the recursive least square method. Moreover, a reduced fourth-order inverter model is used as the dynamic reference model, and grid parameters as well as the incoming setpoints are implemented to the reference model to verify whether the dynamic behavior of the inverter is inside the permissible region of operation. The validity and performance of the proposed method are verified experimentally through Allen-Bradley Powerflex 755 three-phase inverter and a 12 kW NHR 9410 regenerative power grid emulator. The results show that the self-secure smart-inverter is able to accept or reject the incoming commands and thus is protected from malicious cyber-physical attacks.

Hossen, Tareq↗

Development Plan for NEAMS Neutronics Module

Focusing on the NEAMS concept, we have a desire to replace or augment the existing modeling approaches in order to reduce the requirements on building experiments before building the desired reactor plant. The final goal is to use the NEAMS toolkit to generate the typical kinetics parameters used in existing safety analysis tools in addition to a dynamics capable, kinetics functionality which can be alternatively combined with other components of the NEAMS toolkit for coupled simulation and more detailed analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Computationally Efficient Control Co-Design Optimization Framework with Mixed-Fidelity Fluid and Structure Analysis: OpenTurbineCoDe (OTCD) - ARPA-E ATLANTIS Phase I Project (Final Technical Report)

The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Aerodynamic Turbines Lighter and Afloat with Nautical Technologies and Integrated Servo-control (ATLANTIS) Program is to develop new technologies for floating offshore wind turbines, or wind farms, using the discipline of control co-design (CCD.) In this context, our goal is to develop a computationally efficient optimization framework for design of floating offshore wind turbines. Our specific aim is to utilize high-fidelity structural, aerodynamic, aero-structural tools, and to derive control-oriented reduced- or low-order models directly from the high-fidelity tools. We proposed a mixed-fidelity modeling approach which means that we are also using low- and mid-fidelity tools when necessary. This research is conducted by a multidisciplinary team consisting of Rutgers University, University of Michigan, Brigham Young University, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The computational framework, called OpenTurbineCoDe, is designed to integrate, where possible, traditional structural, aerodynamic, aeroelastic models (e.g., OpenFAST) and advanced control algorithms with higher fidelity simulation tools including Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) solvers, and three-dimensional structural finite element solvers. All the high-fidelity tools used in this research provide numerically exact gradients to facilitate both efficient optimization and local linearization for control implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Precision pointing compensation for DSN antennas with optical distance measuring sensors

The pointing control loops of Deep Space Network (DSN) antennas do not account for unmodeled deflections of the primary and secondary reflectors. As a result, structural distortions due to unpredictable environmental loads can result in uncompensated boresight shifts which degrade pointing accuracy. The design proposed here can provide real-time bias commands to the pointing control system to compensate for environmental effects on pointing performance. The bias commands can be computed in real time from optically measured deflections at a number of points on the primary and secondary reflectors. Computer simulations with a reduced-order finite-element model of a DSN antenna validate the concept and lead to a proposed design by which a ten-to-one reduction in pointing uncertainty can be achieved under nominal uncertainty conditions.

Scheid, R. E.↗

Wavelet and Multiresolution Analysis for Finite Element Networking Paradigms

This paper presents a final report on Wavelet and Multiresolution Analysis for Finite Element Networking Paradigms. The focus of this research is to derive and implement: 1) Wavelet based methodologies for the compression, transmission, decoding, and visualization of three dimensional finite element geometry and simulation data in a network environment; 2) methodologies for interactive algorithm monitoring and tracking in computational mechanics; and 3) Methodologies for interactive algorithm steering for the acceleration of large scale finite element simulations. Also included in this report are appendices describing the derivation of wavelet based Particle Image Velocity algorithms and reduced order input-output models for nonlinear systems by utilizing wavelet approximations.

Kurdila, Andrew J.↗

Lanczos modes for reduced-order control of flexible structures

Lanczos mode models represent low-frequency forced response better than do normal mode models and can be developed for both continuous and finite element structural representations. It was recommended that Lanczos mode models for systems with multiple input and/or rigid body modes should be developed; numerical stability of the Lanczos algorithm should be assessed; and control system designs employing the Lanczos mode models should be attempted.

Craig, Roy R., Jr.↗

Assessing time-dependent temperature profile predictions using reduced transport models for high performing NSTX plasmas

Time-dependent, predictive simulations were performed with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP on a large set of well-analyzed, high performing discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate how well modern reduced transport models can reproduce experimentally observed temperature profiles in spherical tokamaks. Overall, it is found that simulations using the Multi-Mode Model (MMM) more consistently agree with the NSTX observations than those using the Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF) model, despite TGLF requiring orders of magnitude greater computational cost. When considering all examined discharges, MMM has median overpredictions of electron temperature (T e ) and ion temperature (T i ) profiles of 28% and 27%, respectively, relative to the experiment. TGLF overpredicts T e by 46%, with much larger variance than MMM, and underpredicts T i by 25%. As the ratio of kinetic to magnetic field pressure (β) is increased across NSTX discharges, TGLF predicts lower T e and significant flattening of the T i profile, conflicting with NSTX observations. When using an electrostatic version of TGLF, both T e and T i are substantially overpredicted, underscoring the importance of electromagnetic turbulence in the high β spherical tokamak regime. Additionally, calculations with neural net surrogate models for TGLF were performed outside of TRANSP with a time slice flux matching transport solver, finding better agreement with experiment than the TRANSP simulations, highlighting the impact of different transport solvers and simulation techniques. Furthermore, the reasonable agreement with experiment of temperature profiles predicted by MMM motivates a more detailed examination of the sensitivities of the TRANSP simulations with MMM to different NSTX plasma regimes in a companion paper (Lestz et al Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105030), in preparation for self-consistent, time-dependent predictive modeling of NSTX-U scenarios.

Lestz, J. B. [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (Unit↗

Constructing an Efficient Self-Tuning Aircraft Engine Model for Control and Health Management Applications

Self-tuning aircraft engine models can be applied for control and health management applications. The self-tuning feature of these models minimizes the mismatch between any given engine and the underlying engineering model describing an engine family. This paper provides details of the construction of a self-tuning engine model centered on a piecewise linear Kalman filter design. Starting from a nonlinear transient aerothermal model, a piecewise linear representation is first extracted. The linearization procedure creates a database of trim vectors and state-space matrices that are subsequently scheduled for interpolation based on engine operating point. A series of steady-state Kalman gains can next be constructed from a reduced-order form of the piecewise linear model. Reduction of the piecewise linear model to an observable dimension with respect to available sensed engine measurements can be achieved using either a subset or an optimal linear combination of "health" parameters, which describe engine performance. The resulting piecewise linear Kalman filter is then implemented for faster-than-real-time processing of sensed engine measurements, generating outputs appropriate for trending engine performance, estimating both measured and unmeasured parameters for control purposes, and performing on-board gas-path fault diagnostics. Computational efficiency is achieved by designing multidimensional interpolation algorithms that exploit the shared scheduling of multiple trim vectors and system matrices. An example application illustrates the accuracy of a self-tuning piecewise linear Kalman filter model when applied to a nonlinear turbofan engine simulation. Additional discussions focus on the issue of transient response accuracy and the advantages of a piecewise linear Kalman filter in the context of validation and verification. The techniques described provide a framework for constructing efficient self-tuning aircraft engine models from complex nonlinear simulations.Self-tuning aircraft engine models can be applied for control and health management applications. The self-tuning feature of these models minimizes the mismatch between any given engine and the underlying engineering model describing an engine family. This paper provides details of the construction of a self-tuning engine model centered on a piecewise linear Kalman filter design. Starting from a nonlinear transient aerothermal model, a piecewise linear representation is first extracted. The linearization procedure creates a database of trim vectors and state-space matrices that are subsequently scheduled for interpolation based on engine operating point. A series of steady-state Kalman gains can next be constructed from a reduced-order form of the piecewise linear model. Reduction of the piecewise linear model to an observable dimension with respect to available sensed engine measurements can be achieved using either a subset or an optimal linear combination of "health" parameters, which describe engine performance. The resulting piecewise linear Kalman filter is then implemented for faster-than-real-time processing of sensed engine measurements, generating outputs appropriate for trending engine performance, estimating both measured and unmeasured parameters for control purposes, and performing on-board gas-path fault diagnostics. Computational efficiency is achieved by designing multidimensional interpolation algorithms that exploit the shared scheduling of multiple trim vectors and system matrices. An example application illustrates the accuracy of a self-tuning piecewise linear Kalman filter model when applied to a nonlinear turbofan engine simulation. Additional discussions focus on the issue of transient response accuracy and the advantages of a piecewise linear Kalman filter in the context of validation and verification. The techniques described provide a framework for constructing efficient self-tuning aircraft engine models from complex nonlinear simulatns.

Armstrong, Jeffrey B.↗

SAM Theory Manual

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR reactor safety analysis. It aims to provide fast-running, modest-fidelity, whole-plant transient analyses capabilities, which are essential for fast turnaround design scoping and engineering analyses of advanced reactor concepts. While SAM is being developed as a system-level modeling and simulation tool, advanced modeling techniques being implemented include a reduced-order three-dimensional module, pseudo 3-D conjugate heat transfer modeling in reactor core, flexible and multi-scale modeling of heat transfer between fluid and structures, in addition to the advances in software environments and design, and numerical methods. SAM aims to be a generic system-level safety analysis tool for advanced non-LWRs, including Liquid-Metal-cooled fast Reactors (LMR), Molten Salt Reactors (MSR), Fluoride-salt-cooled High- temperature Reactors (FHR), and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR). SAM takes ad- vantage of advances in physical modeling, numerical methods, and software engineering to enhance its user experience and usability. It utilizes an object-oriented computational framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library and linear and non-linear solvers, to leverage the modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. This document provides the theoretical and technical basis of the code to help users understand the underlying physical models (such as governing equations, closure models, and component models), system modeling approaches, numerical discretization and solution methods, and the overall capabilities in SAM. As new code capabilities and features are added, the SAM Theory Manual will be updated periodically to keep it consistent with the state of the development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

SAM Theory Manual

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR reactor safety analysis. It aims to provide fast-running, modest-fidelity, whole-plant transient analyses capabilities, which are essential for fast turnaround design scoping and engineering analyses of advanced reactor concepts. While SAM is being developed as a system-level modeling and simulation tool, advanced modeling techniques being implemented include a reduced-order three-dimensional module, pseudo 3-D conjugate heat transfer modeling in reactor core, flexible and multi-scale modeling of heat transfer between fluid and structures, in addition to the advances in software environments and design, and numerical methods. SAM aims to be a generic system-level safety analysis tool for advanced non-LWRs, including Liquid-Metal-cooled fast Reactors (LMR), Molten Salt Reactors (MSR), Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors (FHR), and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR). SAM takes advantage of advances in physical modeling, numerical methods, and software engineering to enhance its user experience and usability. It utilizes an object-oriented computational framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library and linear and non-linear solvers, to leverage the modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. This document provides the theoretical and technical basis of the code to help users understand the underlying physical models (such as governing equations, closure models, and component models), system modeling approaches, numerical discretization and solution methods, and the overall capabilities in SAM. As new code capabilities and features are added, the SAM Theory Manual will be updated periodically to keep it consistent with the state of the development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Lie group analysis of the point-reactor neutron kinetics equations for various reactivity models

This work applies Lie Group Theory to the nonlinear point-reactor neutron kinetics equations for several reactivity feedback and reactivity insertion models. The goal of this work is to connect known analytical solutions to their corresponding Lie groups as well as to obtain new analytical solutions and the circumstances from which they arise. The reactivity models we consider are the Nordheim-Fuchs Model, an arbitrary-order polynomial reactivity insertion model, and the Fuchs Ramp-Insertion Model. In all three models, we generalize the analysis when possible and obtain analytical solutions in every case. For the first two models, we succeed in finding the Lie groups corresponding to classical solutions and find additional solutions that were otherwise unknown. Finally, for the final model, we obtain a reduced-order nonlinear kinetics equation which is not analytically solvable, but by applying a second-order truncation, we find a novel closed-form solution and demonstrate its validity with a numerical example.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Application of Quasi-Static Modal Analysis to an Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Test

Bolted structural joints often exhibit load-dependent stiffness and energy dissipation that leads to nonlinear, amplitude dependent frequency and damping in the structure. As an alternative to direct integration of the nonlinear equations of motion, quasi-static modal analysis (QSMA) determines the dependence of frequency and damping on response amplitude using loading behavior from nonlinear static analyses. QSMA has previously been demonstrated to substantially reduce computational cost and maintain accuracy relative to full nonlinear dynamic simulation. This work explores the applicability of QSMA to a complex, large-scale aerospace structure. QSMA is employed to analyze a nonlinear model of test hardware developed to support the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle program, which exhibited nonlinear behavior during dynamic testing at flight-like load levels. In addition to the extraction of amplitude-dependent frequency and damping curves, a Bouc-Wen hysteresis model was used in conjunction with the quasi-static results to develop nonlinear, uncoupled, time-domain modal equations of motion for the structure. Excellent agreement was observed between the reduced and full-order nonlinear models, encouraging future employment of QSMA to support accurate and efficient model reduction of structures with bolted joint nonlinearities.

QSMA↗

Subgap states in disordered superconductors

We revise the problem of the density of states in disordered superconductors. Randomness of local sample characteristics translates to the quenched spatial inhomogeneity of the spectral gap, smearing the BCS coherence peak. We show that various microscopic models of potential and magnetic disorder can be reduced to a universal phenomenological random order parameter model, whereas the details of the microscopic description are encoded in the correlation function of the order parameter fluctuations. The resulting form of the density of states is generally described by two parameters: the width {Gamma} measuring the broadening of the BCS peak and the energy scale {Gamma}{sub tail} that controls the exponential decay of the density of subgap states. We refine the existing instanton approaches for determination of {Gamma}{sub tail} and show that they appear as limiting cases of a unified theory of optimal fluctuations in a nonlinear system. The application to various types of disorder is discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

Machine learning-enhanced model-based scenario optimization for DIII-D

Abstract Scenario development in tokamaks is an open area of investigation that can be approached in a variety of different ways. Experimental trial and error has been the traditional method, but this required a massive amount of experimental time and resources. As high fidelity predictive models have become available, offline development and testing of proposed scenarios has become an option to reduce the required experimental resources. The use of predictive models also offers the possibility of using a numerical optimization process to find the controllable inputs that most closely achieve the desired plasma state. However, this type of optimization can require as many as hundreds or thousands of predictive simulation cases to converge to a solution; many of the commonly used high fidelity models have high computational burdens, so it is only reasonable to run a handful of predictive simulations. In order to make use of numerical optimization approaches, a compromise needs to be found between model fidelity and computational burden. This compromise can be achieved using neural networks surrogates of high fidelity models that retain nearly the same level of accuracy as the models they are trained to replicate while reducing the computation time by orders of magnitude. In this work, a model-based numerical optimization tool for scenario development is described. The predictive model used by the optimizer includes neural network surrogate models integrated into the fast Control-Oriented Transport simulation framework. This optimization scheme is able to converge to the optimal values of the controllable inputs that produce the target plasma scenario by running thousands of predictive simulations in under an hour without sacrificing too much prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A fast recursive algorithm for molecular dynamics simulation

The present recursive algorithm for solving molecular systems' dynamical equations of motion employs internal variable models that reduce such simulations' computation time by an order of magnitude, relative to Cartesian models. Extensive use is made of spatial operator methods recently developed for analysis and simulation of the dynamics of multibody systems. A factor-of-450 speedup over the conventional O(N-cubed) algorithm is demonstrated for the case of a polypeptide molecule with 400 residues.

Jain, A.↗