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DOE OSTI2022

Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars

In steep wildfire-burned terrains, intense rainfall can produce large runoff that can trigger highly destructive debris flows. However, the ability to accurately characterize and forecast debris flow susceptibility in burned terrains using physics-based tools remains limited. Here, we augment the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess postfire debris flow susceptibility over a regional domain. We perform hindcast simulations using high-resolution weather-radar-derived precipitation and reanalysis data to drive non-burned baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Our simulations focus on January 2021 when an atmospheric river triggered numerous debris flows within a wildfire burn scar in Big Sur – one of which destroyed California's famous Highway 1. Compared to the baseline, our burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge and shorter lags between rainfall onset and peak discharge, consistent with streamflow observations at nearby US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gage sites. For the 404 catchments located in the simulated burn scar area, median catchment-area-normalized peak discharge increases by ~ 450 % compared to the baseline. Catchments with anomalously high catchment-area-normalized peak discharge correspond well with post-event field-based and remotely sensed debris flow observations. We suggest that our regional postfire debris flow susceptibility analysis demonstrates WRF-Hydro as a compelling new physics-based tool whose utility could be further extended via coupling to sediment erosion and transport models and/or ensemble-based operational weather forecasts. Given the high-fidelity performance of our augmented version of WRF-Hydro, as well as its potential usage in probabilistic hazard forecasts, we argue for its continued development and application in postfire hydrologic and natural hazard assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Precipitation criteria guidelines for use in aerospace vehicle development

Guidelines are presented on probable precipitation extremes and characteristics, applicable for NASA space vehicles and associated equipment development. Information is provided on probability of rainfall rates, drop size, drop rate of fall, associated wind speeds with rainfall, snow loads, hail, laboratory test simulation, and rain erosion.

Daniels, G. E.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Air-sea interaction in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Charts of 3-month sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were produced for the period 1949 to 1970. The anomalies along the United States and South American west coasts and in the eastern tropical Pacific appeared to be oscillating in phase during this period. Similarly, the satellite-derived cloudiness for each of four quadrants of the Pacific Ocean (130 deg E to 100 deg W, 30 deg N to 25 deg S) appeared to be oscillating in phase. In addition, a global tropical cloudiness oscillation from 30 deg N to 30 deg S was noted from 1965 to 1970, by using monthly satellite television nephanalyses. The SST anomalies were found to have a good degree of correlation both positive and negative with the following monthly geophysical parameters: (1) satellite-derived cloudiness, (2) strength of the North and South Pacific semipermanent anticyclones, (3) tropical Pacific island rainfall, and (4) Darwin surface pressure. Several strong direct local and crossequatorial relationships were noted. In particular, the high degree of correlation between the tropical island rainfall and the SST anomalies (r = +0.93) permitted the derivation of SST's for the tropical Pacific back to 1905. The close occurrence of cold tropical SST and North Pacific 700-mb positive height anomalies with central United States drought conditions was noted.

Allison, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

ATS-5 millimeter wave propagation measurements

Long term experimental measurements to determine the propagation characteristics of 15 and 32 GHz earth-space links and to evaluate performance characteristics of operational millimeter wave systems are reported. The ATS 5 millimeter wave experimental link experienced attenuation and fading characteristics as a function of rainfall rate and other meteorological parameters. A method of site selection for the lowest attenuation rainfall rate improved reception tremendously.

Ippolito, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

The influence of polarization on millimeter wave propagation through rain

The influence of polarization on millimeter wave propagation is investigated from both an experimental and a theoretical viewpoint. First, previous theoretical and experimental work relating to the attenuation and depolarization of millimeter waves by rainfall is discussed. Considerable detail is included in the literature review. Next, a theoretical model is developed to predict the cross polarization level during rainfall from the path average rain rate and the scattered field from a single raindrop. Finally, data from the VPI and SU depolarization experiment are presented as verification of the new model, and a comparison is made with other theories and experiments. Aspects of the new model are: (1) spherical rather than plane waves are assumed, (2) the average drop diameter is used rather than a drop size distribution, and (3) it is simple enough so that the effect which changing one or more parameters has on the crosspolarization level is easily seen.

Wiley, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Modern control concepts in hydrology

Two approaches to an identification problem in hydrology are presented based upon concepts from modern control and estimation theory. The first approach treats the identification of unknown parameters in a hydrologic system subject to noisy inputs as an adaptive linear stochastic control problem; the second approach alters the model equation to account for the random part in the inputs, and then uses a nonlinear estimation scheme to estimate the unknown parameters. Both approaches use state-space concepts. The identification schemes are sequential and adaptive and can handle either time invariant or time dependent parameters. They are used to identify parameters in the Prasad model of rainfall-runoff. The results obtained are encouraging and conform with results from two previous studies; the first using numerical integration of the model equation along with a trial-and-error procedure, and the second, by using a quasi-linearization technique. The proposed approaches offer a systematic way of analyzing the rainfall-runoff process when the input data are imbedded in noise.

Duong, N.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A multi-sensor analysis of Nimbus 5 data on 22 January 1973

The Nimbus 5 meteorological satellite carried aloft a full complement of radiation sensors, the data from which were analyzed and intercompared during orbits 569-570 on 22 January 1973. The electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) which sensed passive microwave radiation in the 19.35 GHz region, delineated rain areas over the ocean off the U.S. east coast, in good agreement with WSR-57 and FPS-77 radar imagery and permitted the estimation of rainfall rates in this region. Residual ground water in the lower Mississippi Valley, which resulted from abnormal rainfall in previous months, was indicated under clear sky conditions by soil brightness temperature values in the Nimbus 5 ESMR and U.S. Air Force Data Acquisition and Processing Program (DAPP) IR data. The temperature-humidity infrared radiometer showed the height and spatial configuration of frontal clouds along the east coast and outlined the confluence of a polar jet stream with a broad sub-tropical jet stream along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Temperature profiles from three vertical temperature sounders, the infrared temperature profile radiometer (ITPR), the Nimbus E microwave spectrometer (NEMS) and the selective chopper radiometer (SCR) were found to be in good agreement with related radiosonde ascents along orbit 569 from the sub-tropics to the Arctic Circle.

Allison, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Rain droplet erosion mechanisms in transparent plastic materials

Tests were conducted to determine the damaging effects of rain erosion on optically transparent materials. The rotating arm test equipment used for the tests is described. Typical transparent materials such as those found in windshields, infrared windows, lasers, and television systems were tested. Nominal velocities of 400, 500, and 600 miles per hour and rainfall conditions of one inch per hour simulated rainfall were used in the tests. It was determined that an 80 percent reduction in laser transmittance can occur in plastics submitted to rain erosion. Significant results of the environmental tests are explained.

Schmitt, G. F., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Dynamics of suspended sediment plumes in Lake Ontario

The absence of turbidity plumes during the winter was well documented in an ususually successful sequence of images obtained February 10 - 12, 1974. Useful imagery of the south shore of Lake Ontario was obtained on 3 successive days at a time when sky cover over the area normally approaches complete coverage. Imagery of the Oswego, Genesee, and Niagara rivers failed to detect any plumes, however faint. Despite strong northwest winds on February 11 there was no indication of shoreline erosion generated by wave action. Frozen ground, snow cover, shoreline icing and minimal construction and farm activity without doubt reduces the probability of sediment movement in winter. Thunderstorm activity over the study area is very rare during the cold season so that the erosive energy of rainfall is greatly reduced. Moreover, a fairly high percentage of the winter precipitation is in the form of snow or sleet further reducing the impact of rainfall energy on sediment transport.

Pluhowski, E. J.↗

NASA NTRS1975

A multisensor analysis of Nimbus-5 data recorded on 22 January 1973

The Nimbus 5 meteorological satellite has a full complement of radiation sensors. Data from these sensors were analyzed and intercompared for orbits 569 and 570. The electrically-scanning microwave radiometer (19.35-GHz region) delineated rain areas over the ocean off the U.S. east coast, in good agreement with radar imagery, and permitted the estimation of rainfall rates in this region. Residual ground water, from abnormal rainfall in the lower Mississippi Valley, was indicated under clear sky conditions by soil brightness temperature values in the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer and U.S. Air Force Data Acquisition and Processing Program infrared data. The temperature-humidity infrared radiometer (6.7 micron and 11 micron) showed the height and spatial configuration of frontal clouds along the east coast and outlined the confluence of a polar jet stream with a broad subtropical jet stream along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Temperature profiles from three vertical temperature sounders are found to be in good agreement with related radiosonde ascents along orbit 569 from the subtropics to the Arctic Circle.

Allison, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Modern control concepts in hydrology

Two approaches to an identification problem in hydrology are presented, based upon concepts from modern control and estimation theory. The first approach treats the identification of unknown parameters in a hydrologic system subject to noisy inputs as an adaptive linear stochastic control problem; the second approach alters the model equation to account for the random part in the inputs, and then uses a nonlinear estimation scheme to estimate the unknown parameters. Both approaches use state-space concepts. The identification schemes are sequential and adaptive and can handle either time-invariant or time-dependent parameters. They are used to identify parameters in the Prasad model of rainfall-runoff. The results obtained are encouraging and confirm the results from two previous studies; the first using numerical integration of the model equation along with a trial-and-error procedure, and the second using a quasi-linearization technique. The proposed approaches offer a systematic way of analyzing the rainfall-runoff process when the input data are imbedded in noise.

Duong, N.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Drought in the Sahara - A biogeophysical feedback mechanism

Two integrations of a global general circulation model, differing only in the prescribed surface albedo in the Sahara, show that an increase in albedo resulting from a decrease in plant cover causes a decrease in rainfall. Thus any tendency for plant cover to decrease would be reinforced by a decrease in rainfall, and could initiate or perpetuate a drought.

Charney, J.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Satellite microwave observations of soil moisture variations

The electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) on the Nimbus 5 satellite was used to observe microwave emissions from vegetated and soil surfaces over an Illinois-Indiana study area, the Mississippi Valley, and the Great Salt Lake Desert in Utah. Analysis of microwave brightness temperatures (T sub B) and antecedent rainfall over these areas provided a way to monitor variations of near-surface soil moisture. Because vegetation absorbs microwave emission from the soil at the 1.55 cm wavelength of ESMR, relative soil moisture measurements can only be obtained over bare or sparsely vegetated soil. In general T sub B increased during rainfree periods as evaporation of water and drying of the surface soil occurs, and drops in T sub B are experienced after significant rainfall events wet the soil. Microwave observations from space are limited to coarse resolutions (10-25 km), but it may be possible in regions with sparse vegetation cover to estimate soil moisture conditions on a watershed or agricultural district basis, particularly since daily observations can be obtained.

Schmugge, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Tropical oceanic precipitation frequency from Nimbus 5 microwave data

Microwave brightness temperature data from the Nimbus 5 satellite are analyzed, using threshold brightness temperatures, to yield tropical oceanic precipitation frequencies for several classes of rainfall rates during the season December 1972 through February 1973. Data taken near local noon and near local midnight are analyzed. The overall results are consistent with both climatological precipitation frequency and with concurrent satellite-derived frequency of highly reflective clouds. The difference between the local noon and local midnight frequencies is small, but the heavier rainfall rates tend to occur more frequently near local noon. The ratios of the frequencies of light, moderate, and heavy rain were observed to be relatively constant over the tropical oceans. Passive microwave measurements from space seem to be an important step toward accurate measurement of oceanic precipitation.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Data analysis report on ATS-F COMSAT millimeter wave propagation experiment, part 1

The 13/18 GHz COMSAT Propagation Experiment (CPE) was performed to measure attenuation caused by hydrometeors along slant paths from transmitting terminals on the ground to the ATS-6 satellite. The effectiveness of site diversity in overcoming this impairment was also studied. Problems encountered in assembling a valid data base of rain induced attenuation data for statistical analysis are considered. The procedures used to obtain the various statistics are then outlined. The graphs and tables of statistical data for the 15 dual frequency (13 and 18 GHz) site diversity locations are discussed. Cumulative rain rate statistics for the Fayetteville and Boston sites based on point rainfall data collected are presented along with extrapolations of the attenuation and point rainfall data.

Hyde, G.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Results of LACIE integrated drought analysis (Southern U.S. Great Plains drought 1975-76)

The development and intensification of the drought in the United States southern Great Plains was monitored during the initial growing period of the 1975-76 winter wheat crop. Because of the severity of the drought conditions, a drought analysis plan was developed and implemented beginning on March 8, 1976. Sample segments and full-frame imagery were used at 9-day intervals to identify the drought area and quantify the effects on the wheat acreage. Yield model simulations were run to extrapolate the effects of the drought on yield estimates at harvest, assuming 10 and 90 percent of normal rainfall for subsequent months and 30-day forecast. A survey of LANDSAT data for improvement of distribution of rainfall patterns in the drought area was done for April and yield models run for drought affected crop reporting districts. Special aggregations were performed by the Crop Assessment Subsystem on the drought area to evaluate the utility of remote sensing to monitor the effect of the drought on wheat area, yield, and production.

Thompson, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Seasonal oceanic precipitation frequencies from Nimbus 5 microwave data

Microwave brightness temperature data from the Nimbus 5 satellite have been analyzed by using threshold brightness temperatures to yield tropical oceanic precipitation frequencies for several classes of rainfall rates during the season December 1972 through February 1973. Data taken near local noon and near local midnight were analyzed. The overall results are consistent with both climatological precipitation frequency and with concurrent satellite-derived frequency of highly reflective clouds. The difference between the local noon and the local midnight frequency is small, but the heavier rainfall rates tend to occur more frequently near local noon. The ratios of the frequencies of light, moderate, and heavy rain were observed to be relatively constant over the tropical oceans. Passive microwave measurements from space seem to be an important step toward accurate measurement of oceanic precipitation.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Meteorological radar calibration

A meteorological radar calibration technique is developed. It is found that the integrated, range corrected, received power saturates under intense rain conditions in a manner analogous to that encountered for the radiometric path temperature. Furthermore, it is found that this saturation condition establishes a bound which may be used to determine an absolution radar calibration for the case of radars operating at attenuating wavelengths. In the case of less intense rainfall or for radars at nonattenuating wavelengths, the relationship for direct calibration in terms of an independent measurement of radiometric path temperature is developed. This approach offers the advantage that the calibration is in terms of an independent measurement of the rainfall through the same elevated region as that viewed by the radar.

Hodge, D. B.↗