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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Uncertainty Propagation in Coupled Atmosphere–Wave–Ocean Prediction System: A Study of Hurricane Earl (2010)

This study focuses on understanding the evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010) with respect to random perturbations in the storm’s initial strength, size, and asymmetry in wind distribution. We rely on the Unified Wave Interface-Coupled Model (UWIN-CM), a fully coupled atmosphere–wave–ocean system to generate a storm realization ensemble, and use polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to build surrogate models for time evolution of both the maximum wind speed and minimum sea level pressure in Earl. The resulting PC surrogate models provide statistical insights on probability distributions of model responses throughout the simulation time span. Statistical analysis of rapid intensification (RI) suggests that initial perturbations having intensified and counterclockwise-rotated winds are more likely to undergo RI. In addition, for the range of initial conditions considered RI seems mostly sensitive to azimuthally averaged maximum wind speed and asymmetry orientation, rather than storm size and asymmetry magnitude; this is consistent with global sensitivity analysis of PC surrogate models. Finally, we combine initial condition perturbations with a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) forcing in the UWIN-CM simulations and conclude that the storm tracks are substantially influenced by the SKEBS forcing perturbations, whereas the perturbations in initial conditions alone had only limited impact on the storm-track forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated model-predictive design of synthetic promoters to control transcriptional profiles in bacteria

Abstract Transcription rates are regulated by the interactions between RNA polymerase, sigma factor, and promoter DNA sequences in bacteria. However, it remains unclear how non-canonical sequence motifs collectively control transcription rates. Here, we combine massively parallel assays, biophysics, and machine learning to develop a 346-parameter model that predicts site-specific transcription initiation rates for any σ 70 promoter sequence, validated across 22132 bacterial promoters with diverse sequences. We apply the model to predict genetic context effects, design σ 70 promoters with desired transcription rates, and identify undesired promoters inside engineered genetic systems. The model provides a biophysical basis for understanding gene regulation in natural genetic systems and precise transcriptional control for engineering synthetic genetic systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Approximate Green’s Function Coupled Cluster A Method Employing Effective Dimension Reduction

The Green’s function coupled cluster (GFCC) method, originally proposed in the early 1990s, is a powerful many-body tool for computing and analyzing the electronic structures of molecular structures and periodic systems, especially when electrons are strongly correlated. However, in order for the GFCC method to become an approach that can be routinely used in the electronic structure calculations, more robust linear algebraic techniques and approximations need to be employed to reduce its extremely high computational overhead. In our recent studies, we showed that the GFCC equation can be numerically solved by seeking solutions of multiple linear systems in the frequency regime of interest, which can be easily distributed in a massively parallel environment, and broaden the avenue for more state-of-the-art numerical linear algebraic tools associated with multiple linear systems to be kicked in to this field. In the present pursuit of this practice, we show a successful application of model order reduction (MOR) techniques in the GFCC framework. Briefly speaking, for a frequency regime of interest that requires a high resolution of spectral function, instead of solving GFCC linear equation in the original dimension for every single frequency point, an easily-solvable linear system model with reduced dimension can be built upon projecting the original GFCC linear system into a subspace, from which the interpolation and extrapolation can give a reasonable approximation to the results of the original GFCC linear equations. Here, we show that the subspace can be properly constructed in an iterative manner from the auxiliary vectors of the GFCC linear equations at some select frequencies inside the frequency regime. During the iterations, the quality of the subspace, as well as the linear system model, can be systematically improved. The approach is tested in this work in terms of the efficiency and accuracy of computing spectral functions for some typical molecular systems including carbon monoxide, 1,3-butadiene, benzene, and adenine molecules. As a byproduct, the high quality linear system model is also found to be able to provide high quality initial guess for the existing linear solver to improve the convergence performance.

Peng, Bo↗

Physics beyond colliders at CERN: beyond the Standard Model working group report

The Physics Beyond Colliders initiative is an exploratory study aimed at exploiting the full scientific potential of the CERN’s accelerator complex and scientific infrastructures through projects complementary to the LHC and other possible future colliders. These projects will target fundamental physics questions in modern particle physics. This document presents the status of the proposals presented in the framework of the Beyond the Standard Model physics working group, and explore their physics reach and the impact that CERN could have in the next 10-20 years on the international landscape.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

FAST-1.0.1 User Installation and Verification Guide

The purpose of this document is to provide the user information about the installation of FAST-1.0.1 on their computers or servers. General information about the code and supported operating systems is described in Section 1.0.1. Self-service oriented FAST-1.0.1 software licensing steps are described in Section 2.0. An installation verification test suite is provided with FAST-1.0.1 and described in Section 3.0. A convenience script for converting FRAPCON to FAST inputs is discussed in Section 4.0. FAST-1.0.1 was developed and released under a software quality assurance program based upon NQA-1-2017. FAST-1.0.1 is the latest baseline code and the result of a bug fixes to FAST-1.0 with other software and methodology developments. The installation verification test suite contains both steady state and transient Anticipated Operation Occurrences (AOOs). Capability to model accident conditions, such as Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIAs) and Loss Of Coolant Accidents (LOCAs), are targeted for a later release of FAST. FRAPTRAN-2.0 will continue to be used for accident conditions until the release of FAST with accident condition modeling capabilities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Convective-Permitting Hindcast Simulations during the North American Monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013: Establishing Baseline Model Performance without Data Assimilation

During the North American monsoon global positioning system (GPS) Transect Experiment 2013, daily convective-permitting WRF simulations are performed in northwestern Mexico and the southern Arizona border region using the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) models as lateral boundary forcing and initial conditions. Compared to GPS precipitable water vapor (PWV), the WRF simulations display a consistent moist bias in the initial specification of PWV leading to convection beginning 3–6 h early. Given appreciable observed rainfall, days are classified as strongly and weakly forced based only on the presence of an inverted trough (IV); gulf surges did not noticeably impact the development of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and related convection in northwestern Mexico. Strongly forced days display higher modeled precipitation forecast skill than weakly forced days in the slopes of the northern Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) away from the crest, especially toward the west where MCSs account for the greatest proportion of all monsoon-related precipitation. A case study spanning 8–10 July 2013 illustrates two consecutive days when nearly identical MCSs evolved over northern Sonora. Although a salient MCS is simulated on the strongly forced day (9–10 July 2013) when an IV is approaching the core monsoon region, a simulated MCS is basically nonexistent on the weakly forced day (8–9 July 2013) when the IV is farther away. Finally, the greater sensitivity to the initial specification of PWV in the weakly forced day suggests that assimilation of GPS-derived PWV for these types of days may be of greatest value in improving model precipitation forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Equilibration and Diffusion for a Dynamical Lorentz Gas

We consider a model of a dynamical Lorentz gaz: a single particle is moving in ℝ{sup d} through an array of fixed and soft scatterers each possessing an internal degree of freedom coupled to the particle. Assuming the initial velocity is sufficiently high and modelling the parameters of the scatterers as random variables, we describe the evolution of the kinetic energy of the particle by a Markov chain for which each step corresponds to a collision. We show that the momentum distribution of the particle approaches a Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution with effective temperature T such that k{sub B}T corresponds to an average of the scatterers’ kinetic energy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Spread of entanglement and causality

Here, we investigate causality constraints on the time evolution of entanglement entropy after a global quench in relativistic theories. We first provide a general proof that the so-called tsunami velocity is bounded by the speed of light. We then generalize the free particle streaming model of to general dimensions and to an arbitrary entanglement pattern of the initial state. In more than two spacetime dimensions the spread of entanglement in these models is highly sensitive to the initial entanglement pattern, but we are able to prove an upper bound on the normalized rate of growth of entanglement entropy, and hence the tsunami velocity. The bound is smaller than what one gets for quenches in holographic theories, which highlights the importance of interactions in the spread of entanglement in many-body systems. We propose an interacting model which we believe provides an upper bound on the spread of entanglement for interacting relativistic theories. In two spacetime dimensions with multiple intervals, this model and its variations are able to reproduce intricate results exhibited by holographic theories for a significant part of the parameter space. For higher dimensions, the model bounds the tsunami velocity at the speed of light. Finally, we construct a geometric model for entanglement propagation based on a tensor network construction for global quenches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Using an Advanced Distribution Management System Test Bed to Evaluate the Impact of Model Quality on Volt/VAR Optimization: Preprint

In this paper, we present a test bed for evaluating existing and future advanced distribution management system (ADMS) applications in a realistic laboratory setting, including other utility management systems and field equipment. We present an example of using it to evaluate the impact of the ADMS network model quality on a Volt/VAR optimization (VVO) application. The test bed integrates a commercial ADMS with a real-time simulation model of a utility distribution feeder. Representative power and controller hardware are integrated through hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) techniques. The performance of the ADMS VVO application is also evaluated for different levels of measurement density. Initial results indicate that a higher model quality achieves the highest possible energy savings while avoiding voltage violations, whereas a lower model quality results in increased energy savings but at the expense of more voltage violations.

ADMS↗

A helical actuator driven by biased SMA: design, model, and experiment

A helical actuator driven by biased shape memory alloy (SMA) patterns embedded into a soft composite ribbon base is presented in this work. Instead of common U-shape SMA wires, a single SMA wire is woven into planar patterns, which enable helical deformation of the composite ribbon from an initially flat geometry. An analytical static model is established for accurate and rapid prediction of the helical reconfiguration arising from the shape memory effect of woven SMA patterns, followed by validation of the static model using the finite element method (FEM). The finite element results are compared with the analytical solutions given by this static model, which show a high agreement. Parametric study of the influences of eight independent design variables on the dependent helical parameters, such as combined curvatures, pitches, and helical angles, is completed. It is found that the helically deformed geometry is mainly dominated by diameters, biased positions, inclined angles, and numbers of skewed segments of the SMA wire. Fabrication and in-situ experimental test of a prototype of such helical actuators qualitatively demonstrate its dramatic three-dimensional (3D) spiral reconfiguration from a two-dimensional (2D) flat ribbon. In conclusion, such SMA patterns will allow more diverse designs of soft actuators for a wider range of robotic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensembles with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy based fracture initiation criterion for strain-crystallizing rubber-like materials with pre-existing cracks

Fracture prediction is indispensable for polymers, like rubbers, which have a broad range of applications mainly due to their high extensibility. The phenomenon known as strain-induced crystallization further contributes to the fracture toughness of certain rubbers. Here in this study, a criterion based on internal bond energy, incorporating the effects of crystallization, is proposed to predict fracture initiation in rubber-like materials with pre-existing cracks. First, a multi-scale mechanical model is developed for characterizing the behavior of rubber when subjected to both uniaxial and biaxial deformation states. At the microscale, both the amorphous and crystalline chain segments are modeled as elastic in order to consider the energy contribution by the molecular bond distortions. This internal energy is considered along with the entropic and crystalline free energy for each chain. In the chain model, the effects of loading condition and the relative orientation of a chain on its crystallinity are taken into account. At the macroscopic scale, an existing crystallinity distribution function is adapted and a mixed finite element formulation with an augmented Lagrangian multiplier is utilized to impose the incompressibility constraint. A non-affine maximal advance path constraint based homogenization model is utilized for bridging the two scales. Its potential to account for anisotropy in the stretched network compels the model to be preferable due to its physical significance, for the purpose of fracture modeling. The rigidity of the crystallites is accounted for by proposing a crystallite distortion energy in addition to the critical bond dissociation energy, for fracture initiation to occur. The model is validated by comparison with existing experimental results for both crystallizing and non-crystallizing rubbers. In addition to its potential to predict the material behavior when subjected to uniaxial and biaxial loading, the capability of the model to quantitatively estimate the effect of crystallization on fracture initiation is also verified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

HVDC Macrogrid Modeling for Power-flow and Transient Stability Studies in North American Continental-Level Interconnections

High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission lines are being constructed throughout the world, aided by advancements in power electronics and the potential value to transfer power between distant areas and off-shore locations. Multiple HVDC lines within and across large AC interconnections could bring about economic benefits such as interregional capacity exchange, and transfer of low-cost, distant electric energy directly to load centers. In addition, network configuration of HVDC lines could result in additional benefits that have not been deeply studied. This paper describes the modeling process for continental-level power system interconnections with the addition of multiple HVDC lines configured as a macrogrid. The models used for study are based on industry-accepted power-flow and dynamic system models for the North American Eastern and Western Interconnections. The model provides insight on feasibility and initial steady-state and stability tests of the HVDC macrogrid and its interactions with the existing electricity infrastructure, opening the door to analysis of the technical value of such a macrogrid.

HVDC transmission, North American Power Grids, AC ↗

Continuum model of tensile fracture of metal melts and its application to a problem of high-current electron irradiation of metals

A continuum model of the metal melt fracture is formulated on the basis of the continuum mechanics and theory of metastable liquid. A character of temperature and strain rate dependences of the tensile strength that is predicted by the continuum model is verified, and parameters of the model are fitted with the use of the results of the molecular dynamics simulations for ultra-high strain rates (≥1–10/ns). A comparison with experimental data from literature is also presented for Al and Ni melts. Using the continuum model, the dynamic tensile strength of initially uniform melts of Al, Cu, Ni, Fe, Ti, and Pb within a wide range of strain rates (from 1–10/ms to 100/ns) and temperatures (from melting temperature up to 70–80% of critical temperature) is calculated. The model is applied to numerical investigation of a problem of the high-current electron irradiation of Al, Cu, and Fe targets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

First high-resolution γ-ray spectroscopy of 41 Si

The first high-resolution in-beam γ -ray spectroscopy is reported for the neutron-rich nucleus 41 Si, a tenant of the N = 28 island of inversion. Excited states were populated in the direct one-proton removal reaction from 42 P projectiles and pn removal from 43 P. Seven γ-ray transitions were observed, only one of which had been reported previously in the literature. Furthermore, this makes 41 Si the most neutron-rich odd-even N = 27 isotone with high-resolution excited-state information. For the one-proton removal, the measured partial cross-section distribution to all observed bound final states is contrasted with results from direct one-proton removal calculations that combine eikonal reaction dynamics with SDPF-MU shell-model spectroscopic factors and assume various possible initial states for the poorly known 42 P projectile. Rather distinct calculated cross-section distributions emerge that, in comparison to the new data, imply that the initial state in 42 P is most likely 3 – or 2 – rather than 1 – or 0 – , the predicted shell-model ground state of 42 P. It is further shown that the level scheme from the novel VS-IMSRG calculation closely agrees with the one of SDPF-MU, the most successful phenomenological shell-model effective interaction in describing the much discussed neighboring isotope 42 Si, perhaps cross-validating these complementary approaches on the quest to model rapid shell evolution away from the valley of β stability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Body Mass Index at Accession and Incident Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in US Army Soldiers, 2001–2011

Individuals entering US Army service are generally young and healthy, but many are overweight, which may impact cardiometabolic risk despite physical activity and fitness requirements. This analysis examines the association between Soldiers’ BMI at accession and incident cardiometabolic risk factors (CRF) using longitudinal data from 731,014 Soldiers (17.0% female; age: 21.6 [3.9] years; BMI: 24.7 [3.8] kg/m 2 ) who were assessed at Army accession, 2001–2011. CRF were defined as incident diagnoses through 2011, by ICD-9 code, of metabolic syndrome, glucose/insulin disorder, hypertension, dyslipidemia, or overweight/obesity (in those not initially overweight/obese). Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between BMI categories at accession and CRF. Initially underweight (BMI<18.5 kg/m 2 ) were 2.4% of Soldiers, 53.5% were normal weight (18.5-<25), 34.2% were overweight (25-<30), and 10.0% were obese (≥30). Mean age range at CRF diagnosis was 24–29 years old, with generally low CRF incidence: 228 with metabolic syndrome, 3,880 with a glucose/insulin disorder, 26,373 with hypertension, and 13,404 with dyslipidemia. Of the Soldiers who were not overweight or obese at accession, 5,361 were eventually diagnosed as overweight or obese. Relative to Soldiers who were normal weight at accession, those who were overweight or obese, respectively, had significantly higher risk of developing each CRF after multivariable adjustment (HR [95% CI]: metabolic syndrome: 4.13 [2.87–5.94], 13.36 [9.00–19.83]; glucose/insulin disorder: 1.39 [1.30–1.50], 2.76 [2.52–3.04]; hypertension: 1.85 [1.80–1.90], 3.31 [3.20–3.42]; dyslipidemia: 1.81 [1.75–1.89], 3.19 [3.04–3.35]). Risk of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and overweight/obesity in initially underweight Soldiers was 40%, 31%, and 79% lower, respectively, versus normal-weight Soldiers. BMI in early adulthood has important implications for cardiometabolic health, even within young, physically active populations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Convection- and SASI-driven flows in parametrized models of core-collapse supernova explosions

We present initial results from three-dimensional simulations of parametrized core-collapse supernova (CCSN) explosions obtained with our astrophysical simulation code General Astrophysical Simulation System (GenASIS). Here, we are interested in nonlinear flows resulting from neutrino-driven convection and the standing accretion shock instability (SASI) in the CCSN environment prior to and during the explosion. By varying parameters in our model that control neutrino heating and shock dissociation, our simulations result in convection-dominated and SASI-dominated evolution. We describe this initial set of simulation results in some detail. To characterize the turbulent flows in the simulations, we compute and compare velocity power spectra from convection-dominated and SASI-dominated (both non-exploding and exploding) models. When compared to SASI-dominated models, convection-dominated models exhibit significantly more power on small spatial scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗