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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Factors Influencing Progressive Failure Analysis Predictions for Laminated Composite Structure

Progressive failure material modeling methods used for structural analysis including failure initiation and material degradation are presented. Different failure initiation criteria and material degradation models are described that define progressive failure formulations. These progressive failure formulations are implemented in a user-defined material model for use with a nonlinear finite element analysis tool. The failure initiation criteria include the maximum stress criteria, maximum strain criteria, the Tsai-Wu failure polynomial, and the Hashin criteria. The material degradation model is based on the ply-discounting approach where the local material constitutive coefficients are degraded. Applications and extensions of the progressive failure analysis material model address two-dimensional plate and shell finite elements and three-dimensional solid finite elements. Implementation details are described in the present paper. Parametric studies for laminated composite structures are discussed to illustrate the features of the progressive failure modeling methods that have been implemented and to demonstrate their influence on progressive failure analysis predictions.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗

Identification of mechanisms driving heterogeneous void growth in ductile aluminum

Void growth plays a central role in ductile fracture, yet the specific mechanisms that control this remain obscure. Classical models, such as those proposed by Rice and Tracey in 1969, are able to capture average rates of void growth, but cannot capture the heterogeneity of individual void growth. Building on recent work, the present study employs laboratory-based diffraction contrast tomography and in-situ x-ray computed tomography to investigate the effect of grain structure and other microstructural factors on void growth in an Al-2219 alloy. Crystal plasticity finite element (CP-FE) modeling is used alongside experimental data to evaluate the contributions of local mechanical states, grain orientation, grain size, and neighboring microstructural features. No strong linear relationships are found with any of the considered descriptors and void growth rate. Potential complex nonlinear relationships are explored with the use of a random forest regression model, which identifies initial void volume, void aspect ratio, local normal stress state, local shear stress state, and local equivalent plastic strain (EQPS) as features that most improve void growth rate predictions. The combination of these analyses suggests that these features should be prioritized to improve models of void growth.

Diffraction contrast tomography (DCT)↗

Standard Library Grid-Forming Hybrid Control Inverter-Based Resource Model Specification (REGFM_C1)

This document describes a standard library grid-forming (GFM) hybrid control inverter-based resource (IBR) model. The GFM hybrid control approach implements both a typical GFM control and a typical grid-following (GFL) control inside one single inverter simultaneously, so that it can take advantage of both methods without comprising the benefits of a typical GFM. The initial version of model specification was jointly developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Tesla Energy, and EPRI, and it was revised multiple times later to incorporate suggestions from WECC MVS members. Tesla Energy provided main control blocks to support the development of this model specification. This standard library model is developed to help the utility industry better understand the GFM technology. The model could be used to represent equipment for long-term planning studies where vendor-specific models are not available. As equipment matures and improves, standard library models will be updated to capture the new functionalities of GFMs. It is not intended that these models will always remain representative of all future GFM technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Assimilating microwave cloudy observations into NASA GEOS model using a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo technique

Despite the importance of clouds and their influence on atmospheric water and energy balance, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers systematically exclude cloud information from the assimilation process and only assimilate clear-sky radiances (Janiskov´a et al. 2012). In order to ensure that only clear sky radiances are assimilated, strict cloud detection thresholds are applied before radiances are fed into data assimilation (DA) systems. This process not only excludes a large portion of satellite radiances, but causes loss of information in the regions that are of high interest to meteorologists and are most challenging for weather forecasts (Errico et al. 2007; Haddad et al. 2015). Although, in recent years there has been great advances in the operational weather forecasting, the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC), especially the intensity of TCs, remains challenging. According to Aksoy et al. (2013), in addition to the model deficiencies, another important factor that contributes to this challenge includes lack of observations in the peripheral environment (rain- bands) of TCs mainly because of the selective assimilation of existing observations. Satellite observations provide more than 90 % of the input data for the initialization of NWP models but more than 75 % of satellite observations are discarded due to the cloud contamination as well as land, snow, and ice emissivity issues (Bauer et al. 2010).

Rainband↗

Evaluation and Validation Approaches for Simulation of Social Behavior: Challenges and Opportunities

While models of social systems have grown in scope to represent increasingly complex phenomena, efforts to validate these models against observations suffer from a number of challenges that include the lack of shared approaches, the use of single-dimensional evaluation criteria, and the difficulty in evaluating causal mechanisms. Moreover, current evaluation approaches suffer from sensitivity of the existing measurements to initial conditions and model assumptions, and failure to account for uncertainty. These effects lead to the lack of generalizability to new contexts, inability to replicate the validation approach for new models, and difficulties in interpretation of validation results. These challenges can be addressed by building a set of diverse and robust evaluation metrics and by developing best practices for comparative, reproducible validation of varied social simulation approaches against real-world data. Herein, we outline several best practices for data-drive model validation, such as defining evaluation strategies consistent with the intended use case and defining broad comparison criteria to highlight both model strengths and weaknesses. Leveraging common validation practices will enable robust analysis of simulation performance across diverse social scenarios and modeling approaches.

Saldanha, Emily G.↗

Machine Learning Accelerated First-Principles Study of the Hydrodeoxygenation of Propanoic Acid

The complex reaction network of catalytic biomass conversions often involves hundreds of surface intermediates and thousands of reaction steps, greatly hindering the rational design of metal catalysts for these conversions. Here, we present a framework of machine learning (ML)-accelerated first-principles studies for the hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of propanoic acid over transition metal surfaces. The microkinetic model (MKM) is initially parametrized by ML-predicted energies and iteratively improved by identifying the rate-determining species and steps (RDS), computing their energies by density functional theory (DFT), and reparameterizing the MKM until all the RDS are computed by DFT. The Gaussian process (GP) model performs significantly better than the linear ridge regression model for predicting both the adsorption free energies and transition state free energies. Parameterized with energies from the GP model, only 5–20% of the full reaction network has to be computed by DFT for the MKM to possess DFT-level accuracy for the TOF and dominant reaction pathway. While the linear ridge regression model performs worse than the GP model, its performance is greatly improved when only transition states are predicted by the regression model and adsorption energies are computed by DFT. Overall, we find that a high accuracy in adsorption free energies is more important for a reliable MKM than a high accuracy in TS free energies. Lastly, based on the GP model with GOH and GCHCHCO as catalyst descriptors, we build two-dimensional volcano plots in activity and selectivity that can help design promising alloy catalysts for HDO reactions of organic acids.

adsorption↗

Effect of subjectively enhancing the initial vorticity field in a short-range numerical forecast

The paper tests a simple method to incorporate subsynoptic-scale information into the initial conditions of a forecast model. The amplitude, orientation and vertical structure of the vorticity field associated with the subsynoptic-scale disturbance are estimated subjectively; this is done using a combination of climatological and physical models together with all available data. The initial values of geopotential are then obtained in the vicinity of the subsynoptic-scale disturbance, as over the rest of the domain, through the balance equation. Two sets of initial conditions are tested in 12-hr forecasts using a six-layer version of a primitive equation forecast model (Anthes and Warner, 1978). The analysis schemes consisted of (1) a careful subjective analysis of radiosonde data with a high-resolution objective interpolation, and (2) the same preceding analysis but including data derived from the enhanced vorticity fields in the vicinity of the subsynoptic-scale disturbance. The results are discussed in some detail.

Fried, G. D.↗

Development of Time Lapse VSP Integration Workflow: A Case Study at Farnsworth CO2-EOR Project

Abstract This study aims to develop a 4D Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) integration workflow to improve the prediction of subsurface stress changes. The selected study site is a 5-spot pattern within the ongoing CO2-EOR operations at the Farnsworth Field Unit FWU in Ochiltree County, Texas. The specific pattern has undergone extensive geological and geomechanical characterization through the acquisition of 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core. This workflow constrains a numerical hydromechanical model by applying a penalty function formed between "modeled" versus "observed" time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. Analyses of geophysical logs and ultra-sonic measurements on core exhibit measurable sensitivities to changes in both fluid saturation and mean effective stress. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model and stress-velocity relationship, which inform the numerical models used to generate the "modeled" portion of the penalty function. The "observed" portion of the penalty function is provided by a novel elastic full-waveform inversion of the available 3D baseline and three monitor surveys to produce high-quality estimates of time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. The modeling workflow accounts sequentially for fluid substitution and stress impacts. Hydrodynamic and geomechanical properties of the 3D coupled numerical model are estimated through geostatistical integration of well log and core data with 3D seismic inversion products. Changes in seismic velocities due to fluid substitution are computed using the Biot-Gassmann workflow and site-specific rock physics. Stress impacts on time-lapse seismic velocity changes are modeled from the effective stress output of the hydromechanical model and are initially based on the velocity versus effective stress relationship extracted from core mechanical testing. Based on the principle of superposition of seismic wavefields, seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution and that due to changes in mean effective stress are treated as linearly additive. The modeled results are upscaled using Backus averaging to reconcile scale discrepancies between the modeled and measured datasets to formulate the penalty function. This manuscript presents the forward modeling process and concludes that for the base case, the seismic velocity changes due to mean effective stress dominates over the seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution because of the extensive range of the pressure perturbations. Successful minimization of this penalty function calibrates the coupled hydrodynamic geomechanical numerical model and affirms the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements such as 4D-VSP for geomechanical calibration.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Pseudoreversible Normalizing Flow for Stochastic Dynamical Systems with Various Initial Distributions

Here, we present a pseudoreversible normalizing flow method for efficiently generating samples of the state of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with various initial distributions. The primary objective is to construct an accurate and efficient sampler that can be used as a surrogate model for computationally expensive numerical integration of SDEs, such as those employed in particle simulation. After training, the normalizing flow model can directly generate samples of the SDE’s final state without simulating trajectories. The existing normalizing flow model for SDEs depends on the initial distribution, meaning the model needs to be retrained when the initial distribution changes. The main novelty of our normalizing flow model is that it can learn the conditional distribution of the state, i.e., the distribution of the final state conditional on any initial state, such that the model only needs to be trained once and the trained model can be used to handle various initial distributions. This feature can provide a significant computational saving in studies of how the final state varies with the initial distribution. Additionally, we propose to use a pseudoreversible network architecture to define the normalizing flow model, which has sufficient expressive power and training efficiency for a variety of SDEs in science and engineering, e.g., in particle physics. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the pseudoreversible normalizing flow model to the target probability density function in the Kullback–Leibler divergence metric. Numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed normalizing flow model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Considerations for Femtosecond Laser Electronic Excitation Tagging in High-Speed Flows

Femtosecond laser electronic excitation tagging (FLEET) is an unseeded method for molecular tagging which offers valuable opportunities for measurement of high-speed (transonic, supersonic or hypersonic) flows. The unique nature of high-speed testing demands certain performance from FLEET such as satisfactory signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at depressed static conditions (i.e., low temperatures, pressures and densities), wide dynamic range for velocity determination (especially single-shot), and measurements with acceptable accuracy and precision. This dissertation strives to evaluate FLEET in those regards and provide strategies to maximize the method's capabilities. A zero-dimensional kinetics model in nitrogen explains FLEET signal changes with pressure/density and/or temperature in terms of plasma-chemical reactions. Poorly known rate coefficients are tuned by comparing model output to measurements, with temporal agreement up to several hundred nanoseconds. Modeling reveals that initial signal peaks at reduced density because of slowed temporal evolution (and decay) of excited populations. Low temperatures enhance signal by enlarging cluster ion populations which contribute to excited species via electron-ion dissociative recombination. A purpose-built free jet facility provides experimental validation of the kinetics model and assesses FLEET velocimetry in low temperature and pressure/density conditions. Signal, lifetime, accuracy and precision results are obtained from unheated subsonic through Mach 4.0 operation of the facility, with best results noted. FLEET measurements of a sweeping jet (SWJ) actuator in compressible operation showcase its advantages in a highly unsteady jet containing subsonic through supersonic velocities. FLEET velocimetry is performed in the device's internal and external flow fields, with the latter compared to hot-wire anemometry. Internal measurements reveal the absence of shockwaves theorized to occur at high pressure ratios. Simultaneous qualitative measurements of compressible jet mixing are shown as a proof-of-concept. Overall, the work demonstrates that previous understanding of SWJ incompressible operation readily extends into the compressible realm. Practical aspects of performing FLEET velocimetry are detailed, along with strategies for improving measurement quality. Determination of a fundamental precision in nitrogen and air is attempted. Experiments show that increasing time delay and/or SNR improves velocimetry precision. A comparison of five camera systems indicates sensors with larger pixels capture higher SNR data and produce more precise results.

FLEET↗

Case studies using GOES infrared data and a planetary boundary layer model to infer regional scale variations in soil moisture

Modeled temperature data from a one-dimensional, time-dependent, initial value, planetary boundary layer model for 16 separate model runs with varying initial values of moisture availability are applied, by the use of a regression equation, to longwave infrared GOES satellite data to infer moisture availability over a regional area in the central U.S. This was done for several days during the summers of 1978 and 1980 where a large gradient in the antecedent precipitation index (API) represented the boundary between a drought area and a region of near normal precipitation. Correlations between satellite derived moisture availability and API were found to exist. Errors from the presence of clouds, water vapor and other spatial inhomogeneities made the use of the measurement for anything except the relative degree of moisture availability dubious.

Rose, F. G.↗

Giant Cloud Condensation Nuclei Facilitate Drizzle Formation in Stratocumulus—Insights From a Combined Observation‐Modeling Framework

The mechanism for initiating drizzle drop remains a gap in the current understanding of warm rain formation. One prevalent hypothesis suggests that the presence of Giant Cloud Condensation Nuclei (GCCN) generates drizzle‐sized drops necessary to trigger the Collision‐Coalescence (C‐C) process. Here, in this study, this hypothesis is investigated using a novel framework that integrates in situ observations, remote sensing measurements, and idealized models. Results show that GCCN can efficiently generate drizzle drops through condensation, producing a broad Droplet Size Distribution (DSD) comparable to in situ observations. The large drizzle drop and broad DSD strongly facilitate C‐C, further accelerating drizzle initiation. To compare with observation, the model‐generated DSDs are used to generate radar Doppler spectra where radar reflectivity and Doppler skewness is estimated. The simulated radar quantities correspond well with radar observations, providing critical evidence for the GCCN‐induced drizzle initiation mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Formation of Supermassive Black Holes in Galactic Bulges: A Rotating Collapse Model Consistent with the M(sub BH-sigma) Relation

Motivated by the observed correlation between black hole masses M(sub BH) and the velocity dispersion sigma of host galaxies, we develop a theoretical model of black hole formation in galactic bulges (this paper generalizes an earlier ApJ Letter). The model assumes an initial state specified by a uniform rotation rate OMEGA and a density distribution of the form rho = a(sup 2)(sub eff)per2piGR(sup 2)(so that a(sub eff)is an effective transport speed). The black hole mass is determined when the centrifugal radius of the collapse flow exceeds the capture radius of the central black hole (for Schwarzschild geometry). This model reproduces the observed correlation between the estimated black hole masses and the velocity dispersions of galactic bulges, i.e., M(sub BH) approximately equal to 10(sup 8) solar mass(sigma per 200 kilometers per second)(sup 4) where sigma = the square root of 2a(sub eff). To obtain this normalization, the rotation rate OMEGA approximately equal to 2 x 10(exp -15) rad per second. The model also defines a bulge mass scale M(sub B). If we identify the scale M(sub B) with the bulge mass, the model determines the ratio mu(sub B) of black hole mass to the host mass: mu(sub B) approximately equal to 0.0024(sigma per 200 kilometer per second), again in reasonable agreement with observed values. In this scenario, supermassive black holes form quickly (in approximately 10(exp 5) yr) and are born rapidly rotating (with a per M approximately 0.9). This paper also shown how these results depend on the assumed initial conditions; the most important quantity is the initial distribution of specific angular momentum in the precollapse state.

Adams, Fred C.↗

Optimal Wetting Angles in Lattice Boltzmann Simulations of Viscous Fingering

We conduct pore-scale simulations of two-phase flow using the 2D Rothman–Keller colour gradient lattice Boltzmann method to study the effect of wettability on saturation at breakthrough (sweep) when the injected fluid first passes through the right boundary of the model. We performed a suite of 189 simulations in which a “red” fluid is injected at the left side of a 2D porous model that is initially saturated with a “blue” fluid spanning viscosity ratios M=ν r /ν b ∈[0.001,100] and wetting angles θ w ∈[0°,180°]. As expected, at low-viscosity ratios M=ν r /ν b $\ll$1 we observe viscous fingering in which narrow tendrils of the red fluid span the model, and for high-viscosity ratios M$\gg$1, we observe stable displacement. The viscous finger morphology is affected by the wetting angle with a tendency for more rounded fingers when the injected fluid is wetting. However, rather than the expected result of increased saturation with increasing wettability, we observe a complex saturation landscape at breakthrough as a function of viscosity ratio and wetting angle that contains hills and valleys with specific wetting angles at given viscosity ratios that maximize sweep. This unexpected result that sweep does not necessarily increase with wettability has major implications to enhanced oil recovery and suggests that the dynamics of multiphase flow in porous media has a complex relationship with the geometry of the medium and the hydrodynamical parameters.

Engineering↗

Cavitation model of the inflationary stage of Big Bang

In this study, we propose a model for the initial stage of the development of the universe analogous to cavitation in a liquid in a negative pressure field. It is assumed that at the stage of inflation, multiple breaks of the metric occur with the formation of areas of physical vacuum in which the generation of matter occurs. The proposed model explains the large-scale isotropy of the universe without ultrafast inflationary expansion and the emergence of a large-scale cellular (cluster) structure, as a result of the development of cavitation ruptures of a false vacuum. It is shown that the cavitation model can be considered on par with (or as an alternative to) the generally accepted inflationary multiverse model of the Big Bang.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Potential Signature of Population III Pair-instability Supernova Ejecta in the BLR Gas of the Most Distant Quasar at z = 7.54*

The search for Population III stars has fascinated and eluded astrophysicists for decades. One promising place for capturing evidence of their presence must be high-redshift objects; signatures should be recorded in their characteristic chemical abundances. We deduce the Fe and Mg abundances of the broadline region (BLR) from the intensities of ultraviolet Mg ii and Fe ii emission lines in the near-infrared spectrum of UKIDSS Large Area Survey (ULAS) J1342+0928 at z = 7.54, by advancing our novel flux-to-abundance conversion method developed for quasars up to z ~ 3. We find that the BLR of this quasar is extremely enriched, by a factor of 20 relative to the solar Fe abundance, together with a very low Mg/Fe abundance ratio: [Fe/H] = +1.36 ± 0.19 and [Mg/Fe] =-1.11 ± 0.12, only 700 million years after the Big Bang. We conclude that such an unusual abundance feature cannot be explained by the standard view of chemical evolution that considers only the contributions from canonical supernovae. While there remains uncertainty in the high-mass end of the Population III initial mass function, here we propose that the larger amount of iron in ULAS J1342+0928 was supplied by a pair-instability supernova (PISN) caused by the explosion of a massive Population III star in the high-mass end of the possible range of 150–300 M ⊙ . Chemical evolution models based on initial PISN enrichment well explain the trend in [Mg/Fe]-z all the way from z < 3 to z = 7.54. We predict that stars with very low [Mg/Fe] at all metallicities are hidden in the galaxy, and they will be efficiently discovered by ongoing new-generation photometric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solar proton events as tests for the fidelity of middle atmosphere models

Ozone depletions associated with solar proton events have now been observed in nine events: November 1969, January and September 1971, August 1972, June and August 1979, October 1981, and July and December 1982. Since the proton fluxes during these events are fairly well known from satellite observations, modelers have been able to compare model predictions with observations of ozone behavior during these events to test the validity of atmospheric photochemical models. Ozone decreases initially follow approximately their theoretically predicted behavior below about 45 km (where NOx is thought to cause the ozone decrease), but after about two weeks the observed decrease appears to be larger than the computed decrease. Above 45 km, where HOx is thought to cause the ozone decrease, the picture of model validity is not as clear. The observed ozone decreases between about 45 and 60 km are substantially more than that predicted by present photochemical models while between about 60 and 85 km the observed ozone decrease is approximately equal to that predicted.

Jackman, Charles H.↗