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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

A Morphing Radiator for High-Turndown Thermal Control of Crewed Space Exploration Vehicles

Spacecraft designed for missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO) face a difficult thermal control challenge, particularly in the case of crewed vehicles where the thermal control system (TCS) must maintain a relatively constant internal environment temperature despite a vastly varying external thermal environment and despite heat rejection needs that are contrary to the potential of the environment. A thermal control system may be required to reject a higher heat load to warm environments and a lower heat load to cold environments, necessitating a relatively high turndown ratio. A modern thermal control system is capable of a turndown ratio of on the order of 12:1, but crew safety and environment compatibility have constrained these solutions to massive multi-loop fluid systems. This paper discusses the analysis of a unique radiator design that employs the behavior of shape memory alloys (SMAs) to vary the turndown of, and thus enable, a single-loop vehicle thermal control system for space exploration vehicles. This design, a morphing radiator, varies its shape in response to facesheet temperature to control view of space and primary surface emissivity. Because temperature dependence is inherent to SMA behavior, the design requires no accommodation for control, instrumentation, or power supply in order to operate. Thermal and radiation modeling of the morphing radiator predict a turndown ranging from 11.9:1 to 35:1 independent of TCS configuration. Coupled thermal-stress analyses predict that the desired morphing behavior of the concept is attainable. A system level mass analysis shows that by enabling a single loop architecture this design could reduce the TCS mass by between 139 kg and 225 kg. The concept has been demonstrated in proof-of-concept benchtop tests.

Cognata, Thomas J.↗

A Morphing Radiator for High-Turndown Thermal Control of Crewed Space Exploration Vehicles

Spacecraft designed for missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO) face a difficult thermal control challenge, particularly in the case of crewed vehicles where the thermal control system (TCS) must maintain a relatively constant internal environment temperature despite a vastly varying external thermal environment and despite heat rejection needs that are contrary to the potential of the environment. A thermal control system is in other words required to reject a higher heat load to warm environments and a lower heat load to cold environments, necessitating a quite high turndown ratio. A modern thermal control system is capable of a turndown ratio of on the order of 12:1, but for crew safety and environment compatibility these are massive multi-loop fluid systems. This paper discusses the analysis of a unique radiator design which employs the behavior of shape memory alloys (SMA) to vary the turndown of, and thus enable, a single-loop vehicle thermal control system for space exploration vehicles. This design, a morphing radiator, varies its shape in response to facesheet temperature to control view of space and primary surface emissivity. Because temperature dependence is inherent to SMA behavior, the design requires no accommodation for control, instrumentation, nor power supply in order to operate. Thermal and radiation modeling of the morphing radiator predict a turndown ranging from 11.9:1 to 35:1 independent of TCS configuration. Stress and deformation analyses predict the desired morphing behavior of the concept. A system level mass analysis shows that by enabling a single loop architecture this design could reduce the TCS mass by between 139 kg and 225 kg. The concept is demonstrated in proof-of-concept benchtop tests.

Cognata, Thomas J.↗

WFIRST CGI Integral Field Spectrograph Performance and Post-Processing in the OS6 Observing Scenario

The WFIRST coronagraph instrument (CGI) will have an integral field spectrograph (IFS) backend to disperse the entire field of view at once and obtain spatially-resolved, low-resolution spectra of the speckles and science scene. The IFS will be key to understanding the spectral nature of the speckles, obtain science spectra of planets and disks, and will be used for broadband wavefront control. In order to characterize, predict, and optimize the performance of the instrument, we present a detailed model of the IFS in the context of the new OS6 observing scenario. The simulation includes spatial, spectral, and temporal variations of the speckle field on the IFS detector plane, which allows us to explore several post-processing methods and assess what gains can be expected. The simulator includes the latest models of the detector behavior when operating in photon-counting mode.

WFIRST coronagraph instrument (CGI)↗

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗

Atomic-Scale Structure and Non-Stoichiometry of Meteoritic Hibonite: A Transmission Electron Microscope Study

Hibonite (CaAl_12O_19) is a common refractory mineral in Ca-Al-rich inclusions (CAIs) in primitive meteorites. Transmission electron microscope (TEM) studies have identified enigmatic planar defects in different occurrences of hibonite in the Allende meteorite that give rise to strong streaking along c* in electron diffraction patterns. Atomic resolution high-angle annular dark-field (HAADF) imaging and energy-dispersive X-ray (EDX) analyses were used to determine the nature and origin of these planar features. HAADF images of hibonite grains reveal lamellar intergrowths of common 1.6 nm spacing, and less commonly 2.0 and 2.5 nm spacings, interspersed in stoichiometric hibonite showing 1.1 nm (002) spacing. Stoichiometric hibonite consists of alternating Ca-containing (“R”) and spinel-structured (“S”) blocks stacked in a sequence RS. In contrast, the 1.6 nm layers result from a doubled S block such that the stacking sequence is RSS, while in the widest defect observed, the stacking sequence is RSSSS. These intergrowths are epitaxial and have coherent, low-strain boundaries with the host hibonite Meteoritic hibonite shows common Ti and Mg substitution for Al in its structure. Atomic-resolution EDX maps of hibonite grains in the Allende CAI confirm the preferred site occupancy of Mg on tetragonal M3 sites in S blocks and of Ti on trigonal bipyramidal M2 and octahedral M4 sites in R blocks. Mg is highly concentrated, but Ti is absent in the planar defects where wider S blocks show Al-rich compositions compared to stoichiometric MgAl_2O_4 spinel. Therefore, Mg likely played the major role in the formation and metastability of planar defects in hibonite. Electron energy loss spectroscopy data from the Ti L_2,3 edge show the presence of mixed Ti oxidation states with ~ 15–20% of Ti as Ti^(3+) in hibonite, suggesting a direct substitution of Ti^(3+) ↔ Al^(3+) in hibonite. The remaining ~ 80–85% of Ti is present as Ti^(4+) and corresponding EDX analyses are consistent with the well-known coupled substitution 2Al^(3+) ↔ Ti^(4+) + Mg^(2+) being the major mechanism for Ti and Mg substitution in hibonite. The formation of planar defects in hibonite occurred during high-temperature nebular condensation or melting/crystallization processes. The occurrence of non-stoichiometric hibonite in the Allende CAI deviates from the mineral formation sequence predicted from equilibrium condensation models. Overall, our atomic resolution TEM observations signify non-equilibrium, kinetic-controlled crystal growth during the high-temperature formation of refractory solids in the early solar nebula.

hibonite↗

Systems and methods for controlling an industrial asset in the presence of a cyber-attack

Systems and methods are provided for the control of an industrial asset, such as a power generating asset. Accordingly, a cyber-attack model predicts a plurality of operational impacts on the industrial asset resulting from a plurality of potential cyber-attacks. The cyber-attack model also predicts a corresponding plurality of potential mitigation responses. In operation, a cyber-attack impacting at least one component of the industrial asset is detected via the cyber-attack neutralization module and a protected operational impact of the cyber-attack is identified based on the cyber-attack model. The cyber-attack neutralization module selects at least one mitigation response of the plurality of mitigation responses based on the predicted operational impact and an operating state of the industrial asset is altered based on the selected mitigation response.

D'Amato, Fernando Javier↗

Cockpit System Situational Awareness Modeling Tool

This project explored the possibility of predicting pilot situational awareness (SA) using human performance modeling techniques for the purpose of evaluating developing cockpit systems. The Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT) was combined with the Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational (ACT-R) cognitive modeling architecture to produce a tool that can model both the discrete tasks of pilots and the cognitive processes associated with SA. The techniques for using this tool to predict SA were demonstrated using the newly developed Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) system. By providing an SA prediction tool to cockpit system designers, cockpit concepts can be assessed early in the design process while providing a cost-effective complement to the traditional pilot-in-the-loop experiments and data collection techniques.

Keller, John↗

The role of geography in the complex diffusion of innovations

The urban–rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million friendship ties of 3 million users. We find that the number of adopters as a function of town population follows a scaling law that reveals a strongly concentrated early adoption in large towns and a less concentrated late adoption. We also discover a strengthening distance decay of spread over the life-cycle indicating high fraction of distant diffusion in early stages but the dominance of local diffusion in late stages. The spreading process is modelled within the Bass diffusion framework that enables us to compare the differential equation version with an agent-based version of the model run on the empirical network. Although both model versions can capture the macro trend of adoption, they have limited capacity to describe the observed trends of urban scaling and distance decay. We find, however that incorporating adoption thresholds, defined by the fraction of social connections that adopt a technology before the individual adopts, improves the network model fit to the urban scaling of early adopters. Controlling for the threshold distribution enables us to eliminate the bias induced by local network structure on predicting local adoption peaks. Finally, we show that geographical features such as distance from the innovation origin and town size influence prediction of adoption peak at local scales in all model specifications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Coupled rotor/fuselage dynamic analysis of the AH-1G helicopter and correlation with flight vibrations data

Under a research program designated Design Analysis Methods for VIBrationS (DAMVIBS), existing analytical methods are used for calculating coupled rotor-fuselage vibrations of the AH-1G helicopter for correlation with flight test data from an AH-1G Operational Load Survey (OLS) test program. The analytical representation of the fuselage structure is based on a NASTRAN finite element model (FEM), which has been developed, extensively documented, and correlated with ground vibration test. One procedure that was used for predicting coupled rotor-fuselage vibrations using the advanced Rotorcraft Flight Simulation Program C81 and NASTRAN is summarized. Detailed descriptions of the analytical formulation of rotor dynamics equations, fuselage dynamic equations, coupling between the rotor and fuselage, and solutions to the total system of equations in C81 are included. Analytical predictions of hub shears for main rotor harmonics 2p, 4p, and 6p generated by C81 are used in conjunction with 2p OLS measured control loads and a 2p lateral tail rotor gearbox force, representing downwash impingement on the vertical fin, to excite the NASTRAN model. NASTRAN is then used to correlate with measured OLS flight test vibrations. Blade load comparisons predicted by C81 showed good agreement. In general, the fuselage vibration correlations show good agreement between anslysis and test in vibration response through 15 to 20 Hz.

Corrigan, J. C.↗

On the Low Risk of SSR in Type III Wind Turbines Operating with Grid-Forming Control

We have shown in previous work that the risk of subsynchronous resonance between wind power plants with Type III wind turbines and series-compensated transmission lines is low when the wind turbines are operated in grid-forming (GFM) mode instead of the standard grid-following mode. This paper explains the fundamental mechanism behind the improved damping characteristics by modeling the positive- and negative-sequence impedances of Type III wind turbines in GFM control mode. Here it is discovered that the GFM control naturally acts against the negative resistance behavior of Type III wind turbines at subsynchronous frequencies that results from an interaction between the rotor-side converter current controller and negative slip. The developed impedance models in the sequence domain and the improved damping behavior are verified using PSCAD simulations of a 2.5-MW Type III GFM wind turbine. The modeling predictions are also supported by experimentally measuring the impedance response of a 2.5-MW Type III wind turbine in GFM mode.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An empirical propellant response function for combustion stability predictions

An empirical response function model was developed for ammonium perchlorate propellants to supplant T-burner testing at the preliminary design stage. The model was developed by fitting a limited T-burner data base, in terms of oxidizer size and concentration, to an analytical two parameter response function expression. Multiple peaks are predicted, but the primary effect is of a single peak for most formulations, with notable bulges for the various AP size fractions. The model was extended to velocity coupling with the assumption that dynamic response was controlled primarily by the solid phase described by the two parameter model. The magnitude of velocity coupling was then scaled using an erosive burning law. Routine use of the model for stability predictions on a number of propulsion units indicates that the model tends to overpredict propellant response. It is concluded that the model represents a generally conservative prediction tool, suited especially for the preliminary design stage when T-burner data may not be readily available. The model work included development of a rigorous summation technique for pseudopropellant properties and of a concept for modeling ordered packing of particulates.

Hessler, R. O.↗

Controls on Barite (BaSO 4 ) Precipitation in Unconventional Reservoirs

Barite (BaSO 4 ) precipitation is one of the most ubiquitous examples of secondary sulfate mineral scaling in shale oil and gas reservoirs. Often, a suite of chemical additives is used during fracturing operations to inhibit the accumulation of mineral scales, though their efficacy is widely varied and poorly understood. This study combines experimental data and multi-component numerical reactive transport modeling to offer a more comprehensive understanding of the geochemical behavior of barite accumulation in shale matrices under conditions typical of fracturing operations. A variety of additives and conditions are individually tested in batch reactor experiments to identify the factors controlling barite precipitation. Our experimental results demonstrate a pH dependence in the rate of barite precipitation, which we use to develop a predictive model including a pH-dependent term that satisfactorily reproduces our observations. Further, this model is then extended to consider the behavior of three major shale samples of highly variable mineralogy (Eagle Ford, Marcellus, and Barnett). This data-validated model offers a reliable tool to predict and ultimately mitigate against secondary mineral accumulation in unconventional shale reservoirs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction of pilot opinion ratings using an optimal pilot model

A brief review of some of the more pertinent applications of analytical pilot models to the prediction of aircraft handling qualities is undertaken. The relative ease with which multiloop piloting tasks can be modeled via the optimal control formulation makes the use of optimal pilot models particularly attractive for handling qualities research. To this end, a rating hypothesis is introduced which relates the numerical pilot opinion rating assigned to a particular vehicle and task to the numerical value of the index of performance resulting from an optimal pilot modeling procedure as applied to that vehicle and task. This hypothesis is tested using data from piloted simulations and is shown to be reasonable. An example concerning a helicopter landing approach is introduced to outline the predictive capability of the rating hypothesis in multiaxis piloting tasks.

Hess, R. A.↗

Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning

Various modeling techniques are used to predict the capacity fade of Li-ion batteries. Algebraic reduced-order models, which are inherently interpretable and computationally fast, are ideal for use in battery controllers, technoeconomic models, and multi-objective optimizations. For Li-ion batteries with graphite anodes, solid-electrolyte-interphase (SEI) growth on the graphite surface dominates fade. This fade is often modeled using physically informed equations, such as square-root of time for predicting solvent-diffusion limited SEI growth, and Arrhenius and Tafel-like equations predicting the temperature and state-of-charge rate dependencies. In some cases, completely empirical relationships are proposed. However, statistical validation is rarely conducted to evaluate model optimality, and only a handful of possible models are usually investigated. This article demonstrates a novel procedure for automatically identifying reduced-order degradation models from millions of algorithmically generated equations via bi-level optimization and symbolic regression. Identified models are statistically validated using cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification via bootstrapping. On a LiFePO 4 /Graphite cell calendar aging data set, automatically identified models utilizing square-root, power law, stretched exponential, and sigmoidal functions result in greater accuracy and lower uncertainty than models identified by human experts, and demonstrate that previously known physical relationships can be empirically "rediscovered" using machine learning.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Passive Thermal Coating Observatory Operating in Low-Earth Orbit (PATCOOL)

Long-term presence on the moon, mars, and beyond necessitates the transport of liquid oxygen (LOX). Resources are limited in space and LOX not only servers as an oxidizer for fuel, but can also be utilized in the production of breathable air for space habitats. A cryogenic thermal control coating, developed by scientists at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is getting ready to demonstrate it has the potential to answer these challenges. Aluminum samples coated with the cryogenic thermal control coating and AZ-93 white paint will be launching to the International Space Station (ISS) and deployed on a CubeSat into a low-earth orbit. This work covers the predicted sample temperatures in a simulated space environment and a review of the Thermal Desktop model.

Cryogenic Thermal Control Coating↗

Artificial intelligence-based predictive modeling for imaging neutral particle analyzers on the DIII-D tokamak

The Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzer (INPA) at DIII-D is a diagnostic system used to accurately resolve the energy and spatial distributions of fast ions in fusion plasmas. A novel artificial intelligence (AI) technique named INPA-net is based on Reservoir Computing Networks and developed here to predict active and passive signals produced by charge-exchange reactions from injected and edge-cold neutrals, respectively, in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. This model is trained using a set of 21 time domain signals between 0 s to 3.35 s that includes injected beam and thermal plasma information, and 6444 real 2D experimental images of the INPA in 12 plasma discharges at DIII-D. The trained neural network is able to forecast experimental images in real-time. The model achieves an R-squared value of 0.91, which is higher than the 0.83 value achieved by a simple linear regression model. This improvement highlights the model's enhanced predictive accuracy for measured images from the validation set. This AI approach is valuable due to its rapid response times and potential for integration into real-time plasma control systems. A version of this model capable of generating syntehic images would be useful for the real-time monitoring of fast-ion transport. A comprehensive sensitivity study reveals that INPA-net maintains high performance even with variations in the input parameters, indicating the model's robustness and reliability. While developed for the INPA, the underlying architecture is adaptable and may be applied to various 2D imaging diagnostics in fusion research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Comparative Analysis of ANN and LSTM Prediction Accuracy and Cooling Energy Savings through AHU-DAT Control in an Office Building

This paper proposes the optimal algorithm for controlling the HVAC system in the target building. Previous studies have analyzed pre-selected algorithms without considering the unique data characteristics of the target building, such as location, climate conditions, and HVAC system type. To address this, we compare the accuracy of cooling load prediction using ANN and LSTM algorithms, widely used in building energy research, to determine the optimal algorithm for HVAC control in the target building. We develop a simulation model calibrated with actual data to ensure data reliability and compare the energy consumption of the existing HVAC control method and the two algorithms-based methods. Results show that the ANN algorithm, with a CV(RMSE) of 12.7%, has a higher prediction accuracy than the LSTM algorithm, CV(RMSE) of 17.3%, making it a more suitable algorithm for HVAC control. Furthermore, implementing the ANN-based approach results in a 3.2% cooling energy reduction from the optimal control of Air Handling Unit (AHU) Discharge Air Temperature (DAT) compared to the fixed DAT at 12.8 °C in a representative day. This study demonstrates that ML-based HVAC system control can effectively reduce cooling energy consumption in HVAC systems, providing an effective strategy for energy conservation and improved HVAC system efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A hierarchical gray-box dynamic modeling methodology for direct-expansion cooling systems to support control stability analysis; Méthodologie de modélisation dynamique hiérarchique de type boîte grise pour les systèmes de refroidissement à détente directe afin de soutenir l'analyse de stabilité de la commande

In this paper, a gray-box dynamic modeling approach for direct-expansion cooling systems is presented. The overall approach incorporates a multi-stage training procedure that consists of 1) identification of component sub-models from quasi-steady-state performance data, 2) system model integration with estimation of refrigerant charge and 3) fine tuning of thermal capacitances of the evaporator and condenser to capture the system dynamic responses. Compared to traditional physics-based models, the proposed modeling approach has advantages including reduced engineering efforts in the model development phase, improved computational efficiency and enhanced prediction accuracy. The modeling method was validated using a 3-ton variable-speed heat pump and proved to be capable of accurately predicting the system transient behaviors over a wide range of operating conditions. The established dynamic model was then applied for control stability analysis, with a specific goal of determining a proper control execution time step. The case study results showed that the stable control execution time step could change significantly, from 3 sec to 19 sec, as the operating conditions and control settings vary, and a proper selection of the execution time step is critical to ensure stable and reliable operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗