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At least 1,477 records · Page 82
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Wind Plant Cost of Energy: Past and Future (Presentation)

This presentation examines trends in wind plant cost of energy over the last several decades and discusses methods and examples of projections for future cost trends. First, the presentation explores cost trends for wind energy from the 1980s, where there had been an overall downward trend in wind plant energy costs. Underlying factors that influenced these trends, including turbine technology innovation for lower wind speed sites, are explored. Next, the presentation looks at projections for the future development of wind energy costs and discusses a variety of methods for establishing these projections including the use of learning curves, qualitative assessment using expert elicitation, and engineering-based analysis. A comparison of the methods is provided to explore their relative merits. Finally, a brief introduction is provided for the U.S. Department of Energy program-wide shift towards an integrative use of qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of wind plant technology innovations on reducing the wind plant cost of energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

WREF 2012: THE PAST AND FUTURE COST OF WIND ENERGY

The future of wind power will depend on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve cost reductions. To better understand the potential for cost reductions, this report provides a review of historical costs, evaluates near-term market trends, and summarizes the range of projected costs. It also notes potential sources of future cost reductions. Our findings indicate that steady cost reductions were interrupted between 2004 and 2010, but falling turbine prices and improved turbine performance are expected to drive a historically low LCOE for current installations. In addition, the majority of studies indicate continued cost reductions on the order of 20%-30% through 2030. Moreover, useful cost projections are likely to benefit from stronger consideration of the interactions between capital cost and performance as well as trends in the quality of the wind resource where projects are located, transmission, grid integration, and other cost variables.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

DOE Hanford Network Upgrades and Disaster Recovery Exercise Support the Cleanup Mission Now and into the Future

In 2013, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site, located in Washington State, funded an update to the critical network infrastructure supporting the Hanford Federal Cloud (HFC). The project, called ET-50, was the final step in a plan that was initiated five years ago called "Hanford's IT Vision, 2015 and Beyond." The ET-50 project upgraded Hanford's core data center switches and routers along with a majority of the distribution layer switches. The upgrades allowed HFC the network intelligence to provide Hanford with a more reliable and resilient network architecture. The culmination of the five year plan improved network intelligence and high performance computing as well as helped to provide 10 Gbps capable links between core backbone devices (10 times the previous bandwidth). These improvements allow Hanford the ability to further support bandwidth intense applications, such as video teleconferencing. The ET-50 switch upgrade, along with other upgrades implemented from the five year plan, have prepared Hanford's network for the next evolution of technology in voice, video, and data. Hand-in-hand with ET-50's major data center outage, Mission Support Alliance's (MSA) Information Management (IM) organization executed a disaster recovery (DR) exercise to perform a true integration test and capability study. The DR scope was planned within the constraints of ET-50's 14 hour datacenter outage window. This DR exercise tested Hanford's Continuity of Operations (COOP) capability and failover plans for safety and business critical Hanford Federal Cloud applications. The planned suite of services to be tested was identified prior to the outage and plans were prepared to test the services ability to failover from the primary Hanford data center to the backup data center. The services tested were: Core Network (backbone, firewall, load balancers); Voicemail; Voice over IP (VoIP); Emergency Notification; Virtual desktops; and, Select set of production applications and data. The primary objective of the exercise was to test COOP around the emergency operations at Hanford to provide information on capabilities and dependencies of the current system to insure improved focus of emergency, safety and security capacity in a disaster situation. The integration of the DR test into the ET-50 project allowed the testing of COOP at Hanford and allowed the lessons learned to be defined. These lessons learned have helped improve the understanding of Hanford's COOP capabilities and will be critical for future planning. With the completion of the Hanford Federal Cloud network upgrades and the disaster recovery exercise, the MSA has a clearer path forward for future technology implementations as well as network improvements to help shape the usability and reliability of the Hanford network in support of the cleanup mission.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Exploring Machine Learning Techniques For Dynamic Modeling on Future Exascale Systems

Future exascale systems must be optimized for both power and performance at scale in order to achieve DOE’s goal of a sustained petaflop within 20 Megawatts by 2022 [1]. Massive parallelism of the future systems combined with complex memory hierarchies will form a barrier to efficient application and architecture design. These challenges are exacerbated with emerging complex architectures such as GPGPUs and Intel Xeon Phi as parallelism increases orders of magnitude and system power consumption can easily triple or quadruple. Therefore, we need techniques that can reduce the search space for optimization, isolate power-performance bottlenecks, identify root causes for software/hardware inefficiency, and effectively direct runtime scheduling.

Song, Shuaiwen↗
DOE OSTI2015

Crab cavities: Past, present, and future of a challenging device

In two-ring facilities operating with a crossing-angle collision scheme, luminosity can be limited due to an incomplete overlapping of the colliding bunches. Crab cavities then are introduced to restore head-on collisions by providing the destined opposite deflection to the head and tail of the bunch. An increase in luminosity was demonstrated at KEKB with global crab-crossing, while the Large Hardron Collider (LHC) at CERN currently is designing local crab crossing for the Hi-Lumi upgrade. Future colliders may investigate both approaches. In this paper, we review the challenges in the technology, and the implementation of crab cavities, while discussing experience in earlier colliders, ongoing R&D, and proposed implementations for future facilities, such as HiLumi-LHC, CERN’s compact linear collider (CLIC), the international linear collider (ILC), and the electron-ion collider under design at BNL (eRHIC).

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Economics of Future Growth in Photovoltaics Manufacturing; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

The past decade’s record of growth in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry indicates that global investment in manufacturing capacity for photovoltaic modules tends to increase in proportion to the size of the industry. The slope of this proportionality determines how fast the industry will grow in the future. Two key parameters determine this slope. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity-normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity-normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a small improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Any accompanying improvement in CapDR will accelerate that growth.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Options Impacting the Electric System of the Future (ESF); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

As utilities are faced with adapting to new technologies, technology and policy due diligence are necessary to ensure the development of a future grid that brings greater value to utilities and their consumers. This presentation explores the different kinds of future directions the power industry could consider to create, discussing key components necessary for success. It will also discuss the practical application and possible strategies for utilities and innovators to implement smart technologies that will enable an ultimate ‘intelligent’ grid capable of two-way communication, interoperability, and greater efficiency and system resiliency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Transition Analysis of Promising U.S. Future Fuel Cycles Using ORION

The US Department of Energy Office of Fuel Cycle Technologies performed an evaluation and screening (E&S) study of nuclear fuel cycle options to help prioritize future research and development decisions. Previous work for this E&S study focused on establishing equilibrium conditions for analysis examples of 40 nuclear fuel cycle evaluation groups (EGs) and evaluating their performance according to a set of 22 standardized metrics. Following the E&S study, additional studies are being conducted to assess transitioning from the current US fuel cycle to future fuel cycle options identified by the E&S study as being most promising. These studies help inform decisions on how to effectively achieve full transition, estimate the length of time needed to undergo transition from the current fuel cycle, and evaluate performance of nuclear systems and facilities in place during the transition. These studies also help identify any barriers to achieve transition. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Fuel Cycle Options Campaign team used ORION to analyze the transition pathway from the existing US nuclear fuel cycle—the once-through use of low-enriched-uranium (LEU) fuel in thermal-spectrum light water reactors (LWRs) —to a new fuel cycle with continuous recycling of plutonium and uranium in sodium fast reactors (SFRs). This paper discusses the analysis of the transition from an LWR to an SFR fleet using ORION, highlights the role of lifetime extensions of existing LWRs to aid transition, and discusses how a slight delay in SFR deployment can actually reduce the time to achieve an equilibrium fuel cycle.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Climate change and the future of natural disturbances in the central hardwood region

The spatial patterns and ecological processes of the southeastern upland hardwood forests have evolved to reflect past climatic conditions and natural disturbance regimes. Changes in climate can lead to disturbances that exceed their natural range of variation, and the impacts of these changes will depend on the vulnerability or resiliency of these ecosystems. Global Circulation Models generally project annual increases in temperature across the southeastern United States over the coming decades, but changes in precipitation are less consistent. Even more unclear is how climate change might affect future trends in the severity and frequency of natural disturbances, such as severe storms, fires, droughts, floods, and insect outbreaks. Here, we use a time-series satellite data record to map the spatial pattern and severity of broad classes of natural disturbances the southeast region. The data derived from this map allow analysis of regional-scale trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the region over the last three decades. Throughout the region, between 5% and 25% of forest land is affected by some sort of disturbance each year since 1985. The time series reveals periodic droughts that themselves are widespread and of low severity but are associated with more localized, high-severity disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. The map also reveals extensive anthropogenic disturbance across the region in the form of forest conversion related to resource extraction and urban and residential development. We discuss how changes in climate and disturbance regimes might affect southeastern forests in the future via altering the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Changes in climate are highly likely to expose southeastern forests to more frequent and severe disturbances, but ultimately how vulnerable or resilient southeastern forests are to these changes will depend on their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to these novel conditions.

Dale, Virginia H↗
DOE OSTI2016

Present and Future Silver Cost Component in Crystalline Silicon PV Module Manufacturing

The purpose of this paper is to determine how increased c-Si PV module production might affect future silver demand and prices, as well as the impacts on total c-Si module manufacturing costs. To evaluate how PV's changing demand for silver might affect future silver prices, and the impact in terms of manufacturing costs, some scenarios of silver's contribution to c-Si PV cell manufacturing costs are compiled on the basis of projected changes in demand and price as a result of changes in material intensity. The analysis indicates that an expansion of c-Si production from 55GW/year to 250GW/year results in a 0.05-0.7 cent/W increase in manufacturing costs because of higher silver prices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Future HEP Accelerators: The US Perspective

Accelerator technology has advanced tremendously since the introduction of accelerators in the 1930s, and particle accelerators have become indispensable instruments in high energy physics (HEP) research to probe Nature at smaller and smaller distances. At present, accelerator facilities can be classified into Energy Frontier colliders that enable direct discoveries and studies of high mass scale particles and Intensity Frontier accelerators for exploration of extremely rare processes, usually at relatively low energies. The near term strategies of the global energy frontier particle physics community are centered on fully exploiting the physics potential of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN through its high-luminosity upgrade (HL-LHC), while the intensity frontier HEP research is focused on studies of neutrinos at the MW-scale beam power accelerator facilities, such as Fermilab Main Injector with the planned PIP-II SRF linac project. A number of next generation accelerator facilities have been proposed and are currently under consideration for the medium- and long-term future programs of accelerator-based HEP research. In this paper, we briefly review the post-LHC energy frontier options, both for lepton and hadron colliders in various regions of the world, as well as possible future intensity frontier accelerator facilities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Crystal Ball: On the Future High Energy Colliders

High energy particle colliders have been in the forefront of particle physics for more than three decades. At present the near term US, European and international strategies of the particle physics community are centered on full exploitation of the physics potential of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) through its high-luminosity upgrade (HL-LHC). A number of next generation collider facilities have been proposed and are currently under consideration for the medium- and far-future of the accelerator-based high energy physics. In this paper we offer a uniform approach to evaluation of various accelerators based on the feasibility of their energy reach, performance reach and cost range. We briefly review such post-LHC options as linear e+e- colliders in Japan (ILC) or at CERN (CLIC), muon collider, and circular lepton or hadron colliders in China (CepC/SppC) and Europe (FCC). We conclude with a look into ultimate energy reach accelerators based on plasmas and crystals, and some perspectives for the far future of accelerator-based particle physics.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Planning the Future of U.S. Particle Physics (Snowmass 2013): Chapter 8: Instrumentation Frontier

These reports present the results of the 2013 Community Summer Study of the APS Division of Particles and Fields ("Snowmass 2013") on the future program of particle physics in the U.S. Chapter 8, on the Instrumentation Frontier, discusses the instrumentation needs of future experiments in the Energy, Intensity, and Cosmic Frontiers, promising new technologies for particle physics research, and issues of gathering resources for long-term research in this area.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2013

Constraining RS Models by Future Flavor and Collider Measurements: A Snowmass Whitepaper

Randall-Sundrum models are models of quark flavor, because they explain the hierarchies in the quark masses and mixings in terms of order one localization parameters of extra dimensional wavefunctions. The same small numbers which generate the light quark masses suppress contributions to flavor violating tree level amplitudes. In this note we update universal constraints from electroweak precision parameters and demonstrate how future measurements of flavor violation in ultra rare decay channels of Kaons and B mesons will constrain the parameter space of this type of models. We show how collider signatures are correlated with these flavor measurements and compute projected limits for direct searches at the 14 TeV LHC run, a 14 TeV LHC luminosity upgrade, a 33 TeV LHC energy upgrade, and a potential 100 TeV machine. We further discuss the effects of a warped model of leptons in future measurements of lepton flavor violation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Future Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of Renewables Used to Meet U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

This brochure provides a brief overview of the report titled 'A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards.' The report evaluates the future costs, benefits, and other impacts of renewable energy used to meet current state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). It also examines a future scenario where RPSs are expanded. The analysis examines changes in electric system costs and retail electricity prices, which include all fixed and operating costs, including capital costs for all renewable, non-renewable, and supporting (e.g., transmission and storage) electric sector infrastructure; fossil fuel, uranium, and biomass fuel costs; and plant operations and maintenance expenditures. The analysis evaluates three specific benefits: air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and water use. It also analyzes two other impacts, renewable energy workforce and economic development, and natural gas price suppression. The analysis finds that the benefits or renewable energy used to meet RPS polices exceed the costs, even when considering the highest cost and lowest benefit outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Landscape of Future Accelerators at the Energy and Intensity Frontier

An overview is provided of the currently envisaged landscape of charged particle accelerators at the energy and intensity frontiers to explore particle physics beyond the standard model via 1-100 TeV-scale lepton and hadron colliders and multi-Megawatt proton accelerators for short- and long- baseline neutrino experiments. The particle beam physics, associated technological challenges and progress to date for these accelerator facilities (LHC, HL-LHC, future 100 TeV p-p colliders, Tev-scale linear and circular electron-positron colliders, high intensity proton accelerator complex PIP-II for DUNE and future upgrade to PIP-III) are outlined. Potential and prospects for advanced “nonlinear dynamic techniques” at the multi-MW level intensity frontier and advanced “plasma- wakefield-based techniques” at the TeV-scale energy frontier and are also described.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Planning the Future of U.S. Particle Physics (Snowmass 2013): Chapter 8: Instrumentation Frontier

These reports present the results of the 2013 Community Summer Study of the APS Division of Particles and Fields ("Snowmass 2013") on the future program of particle physics in the U.S. Chapter 8, on the Instrumentation Frontier, discusses the instrumentation needs of future experiments in the Energy, Intensity, and Cosmic Frontiers, promising new technologies for particle physics research, and issues of gathering resources for long-term research in this area.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Personalized Infrastructure: Leveraging Behavioral Strategies for Future Mobility

For decades, the transportation system has been built to position the personal automobile at the pinnacle of mobility options. This prominence is strongly reflected in individual and population behaviors, and supported by coevolved transportation policy, social norms, funding, and physical structures. Such has been the status quo for the living memory of the U.S. population. However, with the advent of emergent, technologically driven mobility options, the transportation system is in an era of rapid and disruptive change. No longer is transportation infrastructure an externality predominantly composed of physical elements; it is also now a personalized interface carried in the pockets of the majority of the population. Perceptions of personal mobility are evolving, in large part because of the proliferation of smartphone technology and the related Internet of Things (IoT), which will become increasingly essential within future transportation systems. With the emergence of personalized mobility infrastructure, many intervention approaches to influence transportation behavior do not adequately acknowledge the complexity of the social/digital environment within which transportation decisions are made. Transportation decisions are influenced by multiple facets, including costs and benefits in time and money, but also by sociocultural elements shaped by social norms and diffusion of ideas. Understanding of factors that lead to transportation behaviors can help to identify incentives and leverage points whereby alternative choices may be most accepted by individuals, and which, if well coordinated, may lead to improved transportation energy outcomes. How can change be initiated to shift away from the transportation status quo? Is it possible to use technologically delivered incentives to produce meaningful changes in transportation behavior? What types of incentives and at what perceived value is necessary to induce changes in behavior? As transportation agencies look toward an ever more complex mobility landscape, and with a quickly growing population, we look for answers to these questions as the core of developing strategies for the future of transportation. Using available data from emergent modes, and experiments conducted as part of an Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E) Traveler Response Architecture using Novel Signaling for Network Efficiency in Transportation (TRANSNET) project, we look at how the sharing economy and transportation mobility services have begun to radically alter transportation behavior, while operating in parallel with traditional transportation infrastructure. Emerging modes and practices are affecting car dependence and enabling multimodality. We weigh influences on travel behaviors, identify decision breakpoints where inelastic behavior becomes elastic, incentives, and societal leverage points.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗