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DOE OSTI2026

Data for KETCHUP: Parameterizing of Large-Scale Kinetic Models Using Multiple Datasets with Different Reference States

Repository for Kinetic Estimation Tool Capturing Heterogeneous Datasets Using Pyomo (KETCHUP), a flexible parameter estimation tool that leverages a primal-dual interior-point algorithm to solve a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem that identifies a set of parameters capable of recapitulating the steady-state fluxes and concentrations in wild-type and perturbed metabolic networks. KETCHUP can use K-FIT [2] input files. Example K-FIT input files are located in the K-FIT repository at https://github.com/maranasgroup/K-FIT.

Metabolomics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of picosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectra for gas-phase diagnostics

We present a hybrid frequency- and time-domain solution, applicable to the case of picosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS), for gas-phase diagnostics. A solution has been derived based on both physical arguments and four-wave mixing equations for picosecond CARS, with pulse durations that are comparable to the dephasing time scale for gas-phase Raman coherence—a regime where commonly employed solutions for impulsive (femtosecond) or cw (nanosecond) pump/Stokes forcing are not strictly valid. We present the ps-CARS spectrum in the form of incoherent sums of CARS intensity spectra, calculated from the fundamental solution for impulsive pump/Stokes Raman preparation. The solution was examined for temperatures from 1000–3000 K, for four plausible experimental configurations, with laser pulse durations of 50–150 ps, and probe pulse delays from −20 to 240 ps. Approximations based on cw and impulsive pump/Stokes preparation to fit picosecond CARS spectra at atmospheric pressure were examined and the relative thermometric accuracy and computational cost of these approximations were quantified for the case of a zero nonresonant CARS contribution, and a nonresonant susceptibility equal to 10% of the Raman-resonant value at the N 2 bandhead. The nanosecond CARS approximation can result in large fitting errors when the probe pulse time delay is less than the probe pulse duration. Errors as large as 10–20% are observed in the fit temperatures for a zero picosecond probe pulse delay, when the nonresonant background is neglected, largely due to an inability of the time-independent cw model to capture transient frequency spread dephasing effects at the Q -branch bandhead. The inclusion of a nonresonant background results in 40–60% thermometry errors with a nanosecond model at a zero-probe delay. Time-dependent impulsive calculations used for femtosecond CARS better approximate the structure of the N 2 bandhead, reducing temperature fitting errors to 5–10% at a short probe pulse delay. The impulsive approximation results in errors up to 10% at intermediate probe pulse delays, where the coherence of the pump and probe pulses leads to multiple terms in the picosecond CARS solution. Both approximations improve as the probe pulse delay exceeds the probe duration. The nanosecond approximation results in a 2–3% error, while the impulsive model results in differences of less than 1% in some cases. Fits to experimental data obtained using short, ∼60ps pulses at a zero probe time delay and longer 100 ps pulses at a substantial 200 ps delay are presented with accuracies of 1–3% in the fit temperature.

Kearney, Sean P.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Speciation of Soil Phosphorus Assessed by XANES Spectroscopy at Different Spatial Scales

Precise management of soil phosphorus (P) to meet competing demands of agriculture and environmental protection can benefit from more comprehensive characterization of P speciation in soils. Our objectives were to provide spatial context for spectroscopic analyses of soil P speciation in relation to molecular-scale species and landscape-scale management of P, and to compare soil P-species diversity from spectroscopic measurements at submicron and millimeter scales. The spatial range of ~26 orders of magnitude between atomic and field scales presents a challenge to upscaling and downscaling information from spectroscopic analyses of soils. Scanning fluorescence X-ray microscopy images of a 50-mm ´ 45-mm area of an organic soil sample showed heterogeneous distributions of P, Al, and Si. Microscale X-ray absorption near edge structure (μ-XANES) spectra collected at the P K-edge from 12 spots on the soil sample exhibited diverse features that indicated variations in highly localized P speciation. Linear combination fitting analysis of the μ-XANES spectra included various proportions of three standards that appeared in fits for most spots and five standards that appeared in fits for one spot each. The fit to a bulk-soil spectrum was dominated by two of the common standards in the μ-XANES fits, and a fit to the sum of m-XANES spectra included four of the standards. Lastly, these results illustrate a gain in P species sensitivity from spatially resolved XANES analysis. Integrating spectroscopic analyses from multiple scales determines soil P species diversity and will ultimately help connect speciation to the chemical reactivity and mobility of P in soils.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Extraction and Parametrization of Isobaric Trinucleon Elastic Cross Sections and Form Factors

By mining data from Jefferson Lab Hall A experiment E08-014 a new 3 He elastic cross section was extracted from a large quasielastic background. This measurement was taken with an initial beam energy of 3.356 GeV and an angle of 20.51°. The cross section was found to be 1.345 × 10 -6 µb/sr ± 0.086 × 10 -6 µb/sr at Q 2 = 34.19 fm -2 . This new data point falls approximately halfway between the first and second diffractive minima of the 3 He form factors. When combined with recent high Q 2 3 He elastic cross section measurements from Jefferson Lab and MIT-Bates this new data point improves our knowledge of the cross section and form factors at large momentum transfers. The new high Q 2 data motivate a reanalysis of the 3 He elastic cross section world data and provide an improved understanding of the magnetic form factor in particular. For this analysis the elastic cross section world data for 3 He, and its mirror nuclei 3 H, were collected. The world data spans a time frame from 1965 to 2016. The dataset contains electron energy ranges from tens of MeV to above 12 GeV for measurements performed at many different facilities. The world data were then fit using a sum of Gaussians parametrization which allowed for the extraction of both targets’ magnetic and electric form factors which were then used to calculate charge densities and radii. The new charge and magnetic form factors for 3 H and the charge form factor for 3 He are in good agreement with the 1994 fits from Amroun et al . However, the addition of the new high Q 2 data has caused the 3 He magnetic form factor’s first diffractive minimum to shift up in Q 2 by 1-3 fm -2 while also decreasing the magnitude of the magnetic form factor above Q2 ≈ 20 fm -2 . The first diffractive minima for 3H are located at Q2 ≈ 13 fm -2 and Q 2 ≈ 23-24 fm -2 for the charge and magnetic form factors respectively. The first diffractive minima for 3 He are located at Q 2 ≈ 11 fm -2 and Q 2 ≈ 17-20 fm -2 for the charge and magnetic form factors respectively. The charge radius for 3 He was found to be 1.90 fm ± 0.00144 fm in reasonable agreement with past measurements, and the charge radius for 3 H was found to be 2.02 fm ± 0.0133 fm which is much larger than past measurements. However, each of these charge radii has an additional uncertainty that must be applied to them due to allowing all parameters to float freely during the sum of Gaussians fitting procedure. This additional uncertainty should be small for 3 He, but it is likely quite significant for 3 H and would help bring this charge radius closer to agreement with past measurements that made different fitting choices. Unfortunately, this analysis was unable to quantify this additional uncertainty. The new form factor fits were compared to modern theoretical predictions from the 2016 paper of Marcucci et al . The ‘conventional’ theoretical approach applied in this paper modelled two and three-body nucleon interactions with relativistic corrections and was reasonably successful at predicting the charge form factors of 3 H and 3 He. χEFT predictions were also often successful. However, while the ‘conventional’ approach still performed best, theory failed to accurately predict the magnetic form factors of either 3 H or 3 He. The first diffractive minimum of the new 3 He magnetic form factor fits actually moved further away from theory. This disagreement between theory and experiment provides motivation for new asymmetry measurements using polarized 3 He and a polarized electron beam. When the beam is scanned in Q 2 on the target the sign of the asymmetry will flip at the form factor minima pinning down their true location.

Barcus, Scott↗

DOE OSTI2020

PBX9502 PAGOSA/SURF Calibration for 100 µm Grid Size

There are two methods to calibrate the SURF reactive burn explosives model.The first is to calibrate using Pop plot data. Because there are only two main parameters in SURF, called A and B, there is just enough flexibility in SURF to determine the Pop plot line, i.e., equivalent information to a slope and a single point on the line. However, due to the linearity of the Pop plot being based on logarithmic scales, a slight deviation off the Pop plot (though the fit to the Pop plot might be very good overall) can make considerable difference when comparing with the velocity profile data. The second calibration method thusly focuses strongly on matching entire velocity profile data. This is to say that individual velocity profiles extracted from embedded gages (in the case of PBX 9502, we refer to R. Gustavsen’s experimental data) may fit poorly, while the overall fit to the Pop plot may seem reasonable. In addition, there are other factors that could produce slightly different calibrations for SURF, while leading to an overall acceptable fit to data. One of those may be the physics code used and here we use Pagosa. Another is mesh size dependence. A third one stems from fitting a reactive burn model being done in conjunction with an equation of state (EOS) of the reactants and one for the products – different EOS can result in slightly different parameterizations. Finally, there are several secondary material parameters in SURF, and the overall fit will depend on the entire parameterization. The goal of this report is to clarify some of our previously made statements about SURF calibration, as well as to redo a systematic calibration using 100 µm grid resolution.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Non-conformal interface-cohesive modeling with the shifted boundary method

The accurate simulation of boundary- and interface-dominated problems on complex geometries remains challenging when boundary- or interface-fitted meshes are difficult to generate, particularly for curved boundaries, polycrystalline microstructures, and dense interface networks. The Shifted Boundary Method (SBM) alleviates this meshing burden by shifting the enforcement of boundary conditions from the true boundary to a nearby surrogate boundary and recovering the effect of the true boundary through geometric correction terms, thereby enabling standard finite element spaces on non-boundary-fitted meshes. In this report, we develop a general shiftedboundary and shifted-interface framework within the open-source MOOSE framework. We first present a general SBM implementation for complex geometries on non-boundary-fitted meshes. We then adopt the Shifted Interface Method (SIM) for internal interfaces and develop a unified shifted-interface treatment in which the interface law is enforced on a surrogate interface and the effect of the true interface is recovered through shifted jumps, fluxes, and tractions. This perspective brings scalar thermal-contact and vector-valued cohesive-zone mechanics into a single framework, the latter realized as the Shifted Cohesive Zone Method (SCZM) and coupled with history-dependent constitutive models from NEML2. We further extend the MOOSE mesh infrastructure to support cohesive-zone calculations on distributed meshes. The framework is verified and demonstrated through three progressive studies: Poisson’s equation on a smoothed starshaped domain, a manufactured thermal-contact problem on a non-interface-fitted mesh, and a two-dimensional polycrystalline representative volume element combining crystal plasticity with cohesive grain-boundary interfaces. Across these studies, the shifted formulations reproduce boundary- and interface-fitted reference solutions with high fidelity, indicating that the proposed framework provides an accurate and efficient route to boundary- and interface-dominated simulations on arbitrary geometries without requiring fitted meshes.

Yang, Cheng-Hau↗

DOE OSTI2016

Contemporaneous broadband observations of three high-redshift BL Lac objects

We have collected broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of three BL Lac objects 3FGL J0022.1−1855 (z = 0.689), 3FGL J0630.9−2406 (z ≳ 1.239), and 3FGL J0811.2−7529 (z = 0.774), detected by Fermi with relatively flat gigaelectronvolt spectra. By observing simultaneously in the near-infrared to hard X-ray band, we can well characterize the high end of the synchrotron component of the SED. Thus, fitting the SEDs to synchro-Compton models of the dominant emission from the relativistic jet, we can constrain the underlying particle properties and predict the shape of the gigaelectronvolt Compton component. Standard extragalactic background light (EBL) models explain the high-energy absorption well, with poorer fits for high-ultraviolet models. The fits show clear evidence for EBL absorption in the Fermi spectrum of our highest-redshift source 3FGL J0630.9−2406. While synchrotron self-Compton models adequately describe the SEDs, the situation may be complicated by possible external Compton components. For 3FGL J0811.2−7529, we also discover a nearby serendipitous source in the X-ray data, which is almost certainly another lower synchrotron peak frequency (ν{sub pk}{sup sy}) BL Lac, that may contribute flux in the Fermi band. Since our sources are unusual high-luminosity, moderate ν{sub pk}{sup sy} BL Lacs, we compare these quantities and the Compton dominance, the ratio of peak inverse Compton to peak synchrotron luminosities (L{sub pk}{sup IC}/L{sub pk}{sup sy}), with those of the full Fermi BL Lac population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey: Dynamical Mass of the Exoplanet β Pictoris b from Combined Direct Imaging and Astrometry

Herein, we present new observations of the planet β Pictoris b from 2018 with the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI), the first GPI observations following conjunction. Based on these new measurements, we perform a joint orbit fit to the available relative astrometry from ground-based imaging, the Hipparcos Intermediate Astrometric Data (IAD), and the Gaia DR2 position, and demonstrate how to incorporate the IAD into direct imaging orbit fits. We find a mass consistent with predictions of hot-start evolutionary models and previous works following similar methods, though with larger uncertainties: $12.8^{+5.3}_{–3.2} M_{Jup}$. Our eccentricity determination of ${0.12}_{-0.03}^{+0.04}$ disfavors circular orbits. We consider orbit fits to several different imaging data sets, and find generally similar posteriors on the mass for each combination of imaging data. Our analysis underscores the importance of performing joint fits to the absolute and relative astrometry simultaneously, given the strong covariance between orbital elements. Time of conjunction is well-constrained within 2.8 days of 2017 September 13, with the star behind the planet's Hill sphere between 2017 April 11 and 2018 February 16 (±18 days). Following the recent radial velocity detection of a second planet in the system, β Pic c, we perform additional two-planet fits combining relative astrometry, absolute astrometry, and stellar radial velocities. These joint fits find a significantly smaller mass (8.0 ± 2.6 M Jup) for the imaged planet β Pic b, in a somewhat more circular orbit. We expect future ground-based observations to further constrain the visual orbit and mass of the planet in advance of the release of Gaia DR4.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gemini Planet Imager Spectroscopy of the Dusty Substellar Companion HD 206893 B

We present new near-infrared Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) spectroscopy of HD 206893 B, a substellar companion orbiting within the debris disk of its F5V star. The J, H, K1, and K2 spectra from GPI demonstrate the extraordinarily red colors of the object, confirming it as the reddest substellar object observed to date. The significant flux increase throughout the infrared presents a challenging atmosphere to model with existing grids. Best-fit values vary from 1200 to 1800 K for effective temperature and from 3.0 to 5.0 for log(g), depending on which individual wavelength band is fit and which model suite is applied. The extreme redness of the companion can be partially reconciled by invoking a high-altitude layer of submicron dust particles, similar to dereddening approaches applied to the peculiar red field L dwarf population. However, reconciling the HD 206893 B spectra with even those of the reddest low-gravity L dwarf spectra still requires the contribution of additional atmospheric dust, potentially due to the debris disk environment in which the companion resides. Orbit fitting from 4 yr of astrometric monitoring is consistent with a ∼30 yr period, an orbital inclination of 147°, and a semimajor axis of 10 au, well within the estimated disk inner radius of ∼50 au. As one of a very few substellar companions imaged interior to a circumstellar disk, the properties of this system offer important dynamical constraints on companion–disk interaction and provide a benchmark for substellar and planetary atmospheric study.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2016

NEUTRON STAR MASS–RADIUS CONSTRAINTS USING EVOLUTIONARY OPTIMIZATION

The equation of state of cold supra-nuclear-density matter, such as in neutron stars, is an open question in astrophysics. A promising method for constraining the neutron star equation of state is modeling pulse profiles of thermonuclear X-ray burst oscillations from hot spots on accreting neutron stars. The pulse profiles, constructed using spherical and oblate neutron star models, are comparable to what would be observed by a next-generation X-ray timing instrument like ASTROSAT , NICER , or a mission similar to LOFT . In this paper, we showcase the use of an evolutionary optimization algorithm to fit pulse profiles to determine the best-fit masses and radii. By fitting synthetic data, we assess how well the optimization algorithm can recover the input parameters. Multiple Poisson realizations of the synthetic pulse profiles, constructed with 1.6 million counts and no background, were fitted with the Ferret algorithm to analyze both statistical and degeneracy-related uncertainty and to explore how the goodness of fit depends on the input parameters. For the regions of parameter space sampled by our tests, the best-determined parameter is the projected velocity of the spot along the observer’s line of sight, with an accuracy of ≤3% compared to the true value and with ≤5% statistical uncertainty. The next best determined are the mass and radius; for a neutron star with a spin frequency of 600 Hz, the best-fit mass and radius are accurate to ≤5%, with respective uncertainties of ≤7% and ≤10%. The accuracy and precision depend on the observer inclination and spot colatitude, with values of ∼1% achievable in mass and radius if both the inclination and colatitude are ≳60°.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

ON THE EARLY-TIME EXCESS EMISSION IN HYDROGEN-POOR SUPERLUMINOUS SUPERNOVAE

We present the light curves of the hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae (SLSNe I) PTF 12dam and iPTF 13dcc, discovered by the (intermediate) Palomar Transient Factory. Both show excess emission at early times and a slowly declining light curve at late times. The early bump in PTF 12dam is very similar in duration (∼10 days) and brightness relative to the main peak (2–3 mag fainter) compared to that observed in other SLSNe I. In contrast, the long-duration (>30 days) early excess emission in iPTF 13dcc, whose brightness competes with that of the main peak, appears to be of a different nature. We construct bolometric light curves for both targets, and fit a variety of light-curve models to both the early bump and main peak in an attempt to understand the nature of these explosions. Even though the slope of the late-time decline in the light curves of both SLSNe is suggestively close to that expected from the radioactive decay of {sup 56}Ni and {sup 56}Co, the amount of nickel required to power the full light curves is too large considering the estimated ejecta mass. The magnetar model including an increasing escape fraction provides a reasonable description of the PTF 12dam observations. However, neither the basic nor the double-peaked magnetar model is capable of reproducing the light curve of iPTF 13dcc. A model combining a shock breakout in an extended envelope with late-time magnetar energy injection provides a reasonable fit to the iPTF 13dcc observations. Finally, we find that the light curves of both PTF 12dam and iPTF 13dcc can be adequately fit with the model involving interaction with the circumstellar medium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Observation of the Crab Nebula with the HAWC Gamma-Ray Observatory

The Crab Nebula is the brightest TeV gamma-ray source in the sky and has been used for the past 25 years as a reference source in TeV astronomy, for calibration and verification of new TeV instruments. The High Altitude Water Cherenkov Observatory (HAWC), completed in early 2015, has been used to observe the Crab Nebula at high significance across nearly the full spectrum of energies to which HAWC is sensitive. HAWC is unique for its wide field of view, nearly 2 sr at any instant, and its high-energy reach, up to 100 TeV. HAWC’s sensitivity improves with the gamma-ray energy. Above ∼1 TeV the sensitivity is driven by the best background rejection and angular resolution ever achieved for a wide-field ground array. We present a time-integrated analysis of the Crab using 507 live days of HAWC data from 2014 November to 2016 June. The spectrum of the Crab is fit to a function of the form ϕ(E)=ϕ{sub 0}(E/E{sub 0}){sup −α−β⋅ln(E/E{sub 0})}. The data is well fitted with values of α = 2.63 ± 0.03, β = 0.15 ± 0.03, and log{sub 10}(ϕ{sub 0} cm{sup 2} s TeV)=−12.60±0.02 when E {sub 0} is fixed at 7 TeV and the fit applies between 1 and 37 TeV. Study of the systematic errors in this HAWC measurement is discussed and estimated to be ±50% in the photon flux between 1 and 37 TeV. Confirmation of the Crab flux serves to establish the HAWC instrument’s sensitivity for surveys of the sky. The HAWC all-sky survey will be the deepest survey of the northern sky ever conducted in the multi-TeV band.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Steve: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Supernova Cosmology

Here, we present a new Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) named Steve for performing Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) cosmology fits. This advances previous works by including an improved treatment of Malmquist bias, accounting for additional sources of systematic uncertainty, and increasing numerical efficiency. Given light-curve fit parameters, redshifts, and host-galaxy masses, we fit Steve simultaneously for parameters describing cosmology, SN Ia populations, and systematic uncertainties. Selection effects are characterized using Monte Carlo simulations. We demonstrate its implementation by fitting realizations of SN Ia data sets where the SN Ia model closely follows that used in Steve. Next, we validate on more realistic SNANA simulations of SN Ia samples from the Dark Energy Survey and low-redshift surveys (DES Collaboration et al. 2018). These simulated data sets contain more than 60,000 SNe Ia, which we use to evaluate biases in the recovery of cosmological parameters, specifically the equation of state of dark energy, w. This is the most rigorous test of a BHM method applied to SN Ia cosmology fitting and reveals small w biases that depend on the simulated SN Ia properties, in particular the intrinsic SN Ia scatter model. This w bias is less than 0.03 on average, less than half the statistical uncertainty on w. These simulation test results are a concern for BHM cosmology fitting applications on large upcoming surveys; therefore, future development will focus on minimizing the sensitivity of Steve to the SN Ia intrinsic scatter model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Polarimetric Geometric Modeling for mm-VLBI Observations of Black Holes

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) array that has imaged the apparent shadows of the supermassive black holes M87* and Sagittarius A*. Polarimetric data from these observations contain a wealth of information on the black hole and accretion flow properties. In this work, we develop polarimetric geometric modeling methods for mm-VLBI data, focusing on approaches that fit data products with differing degrees of invariance to broad classes of calibration errors. We establish a fitting procedure using a polarimetric “m-ring” model to approximate the image structure near a black hole. By fitting this model to synthetic EHT data from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models, we show that the linear and circular polarization structure can be successfully approximated with relatively few model parameters. We then fit this model to EHT observations of M87* taken in 2017. In total intensity and linear polarization, the m-ring fits are consistent with previous results from imaging methods. In circular polarization, the m-ring fits indicate the presence of event-horizon-scale circular polarization structure, with a persistent dipolar asymmetry and orientation across several days. The same structure was recovered independently of observing band, used data products, and model assumptions. Despite this broad agreement, imaging methods do not produce similarly consistent results. Our circular polarization results, which imposed additional assumptions on the source structure, should thus be interpreted with some caution. Polarimetric geometric modeling provides a useful and powerful method to constrain the properties of horizon-scale polarized emission, particularly for sparse arrays like the EHT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying Model Form Uncertainty of Epidemic Forecasting Models from Incidence Data

Objective We present a mathematical framework for non-parametric estimation of the force of infection, together with statistical upper and lower confidence bands. The resulting estimates allow to assess how well simpler models, such as SEIR, fit the observed time series of incidence data.IntroductionUncertainty Quantification (UQ), the ability to quantify the impact of sample-to-sample variations and model misspecification on predictions and forecasts, is a critical aspect of disease surveillance. While quantifying the impact of stochastic uncertainty in the data is well understood, quantifying the impact of model misspecification is significantly harder. For the latter, one needs a "universal model" to which more restrictive parametric models are compared too.MethodsThis talk presents a useful modeling framework for time series of incidence data from contagious diseases that enables one to identify and quantify the impact of model form uncertainty. Specifically, we propose to focus on estimating the timedependent force of infection. The latter is a universal parameters for all contagious disease model. Using a machine learning technique for estimating monotone functions, i.e., isotonic regression and its variants, one can estimate the force ofinfection without addtional assumptions. We note that most contagious disease model do satisfy this monotonicity assumption, due to a combination of factors: depletion of susceptibles, implementation of mitigation strategies, behavior change, etc. Comparing the resulting "non-parametric" estimate with parametric estimates, obtained by fitting an SEIR for example, can reveal model deficiencies and help quantify model form uncertainties.Finally, we discuss how ideas from "strict bound theory" can be used to develop upper and lower uncertainty bands for force of infection that acknowledge the intrinsic stochasticity in the data.ResultsWe demonstrate the application of the methodology to weekly Influenza Like Illness (ILI) incidence data from France andcompare the results to fitted SIR and SEIR models. This comparison can be seen as a nonparametric goodness of fit test, providing one with tools to do simple model selection.ConclusionsWe present a novel and flexible model to statistically describe the force of infection as a function of time. Comparing the fit to incidence data of that model with the fit of simpler parametric models enables the quantification of model form uncertainty and associated model selection.

Hengartner, Nicholas↗

NASA NTRS1977

Estimated probability density functions for the times between flashes in the storms of 12 September 1975, 26 August 1975, and 13 July 1976

A report is given to supplement the progress report of June 17, 1977. In that progress report gamma, lognormal, and Rayleigh probability density functions were fitted to the times between lightning flashes in the storms of 9/12/75, 8/26/75, and 7/13/76 by the maximum likelihood method. The goodness of fit is checked by the Kolmogoroff-Smirnoff test. Plots of the estimated densities along with normalized histograms are included to provide a visual check on the goodness of fit. The lognormal densities are the most peaked and have the highest tails. This results in the best fit to the normalized histogram in most cases. The Rayleigh densities have too broad and rounded peaks to give good fits. In addition, they have the lowest tails. The gamma densities fall inbetween and give the best fit in a few cases.

Tretter, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Cryogenic Pressure Seal for Wires

High-pressure-seal formed by forcing polyurethane into space surrounding wire or cable in special fitting. Wire or cable routed through fitting then through a tightly fitting cap. Wire insulation left intact. Cap filled with sealant and forced onto the fitting: this pushes sealant into fitting so it seals wire or cable in fitting as well as in cap.

Ciana, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Joint for deployable structures

A joint is described for connecting a pair of beams to pivot them between positions in alignment or beside one another, which is of light weight and which operates in a controlled manner. The joint includes a pair of fittings and at least one center link having opposite ends pivotally connected to opposite fittings and having axes that pass through centerplates of the fittings. A control link having opposite ends pivotally connected to the different fittings controls their relative orientations, and a toggle assemly holds the fittings in the deployed configuration wherein they are aligned. The fittings have stops that lie on one side of the centerplane opposite the toggle assembly.

Craighead, N. D., II↗