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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing and high-sensitivity sensor spatial surveying of stream temperature

Measuring surface water temperature spatial variability is needed to estimate the interaction between surface water and groundwater, evaluate fish habitat and thermal inertia, and to estimate streamflow frequency and duration. Fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) has been used in rivers and lakes, providing high-resolution and sensitive temperature monitoring over large temporal and spatial scales. However, in streams with cobbly or bedrock-lined streambeds and variable bathymetry, use of FO-DTS to measure temperature close to the surface water and groundwater interface can be challenging if even feasible. FO-DTS can also be costly, involve difficult installations, and require an advanced understanding of the technology, calibration, and data processing. In this study, we compared FO-DTS stream temperature survey results to an alternative temperature survey method employing a towed transect of high-resolution temperature loggers spaced at 1-m and transported in the stream along the study reach, to measure the spatial distribution of stream-water temperature in East Fork Poplar Creek near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. We assessed the applicability and limitations of the two methods, and quantitatively compared in-situ temperature survey results measured simultaneously with each method. Regression results showed strong temporal and spatial correlation between the two methods. Differences were only elevated near the stream banks in areas that were coincident with correlation slope deviations from unity, which was attributed to shallower water and lower data density. Kriging standard errors were also low at channel center with minor increases near the stream banks. Furthermore, the results suggested that the array of the individual temperature sensors can provide a practical alternative to FO-DTS for thermal characterization of surface water, providing slightly lower spatial and temporal resolution, but with higher accuracy of temperature measurement, with greater simplicity, and with a broader range of conditions where it may be applied.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Spatial distribution of melt-season cloud radiative effects over Greenland: Evaluating satellite observations, reanalyses, and model simulations against in situ measurements

Arctic clouds can profoundly influence surface radiation and thus surface melt. Over Greenland, these cloud radiative effects (CRE) vary greatly with the diverse topography. To investigate the ability of assorted platforms to reproduce heterogeneous CRE, we evaluate CRE spatial distributions from a satellite product, reanalyses, and a global climate model against estimates from 21 automatic weather stations (AWS). Net CRE estimated from AWS generally decreases with elevation, forming a “warm center” distribution. CRE areal averages from the five large–scale data sets we analyze are all around 10 W/m 2 . Modern–Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA–2), ERA–Interim, and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) CRE estimates agree with AWS and reproduce the warm center distribution. However, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) and the Community Earth System Model Large ENSemble Community Project (LENS) show strong warming in the south and northwest, forming a warm L–shape distribution. Discrepancies are mainly caused by longwave CRE in the accumulation zone. MERRA–2, ERA–Interim, and CERES successfully reproduce cloud fraction and its dominant positive influence on longwave CRE in this region. On the other hand, longwave CRE from ASR and LENS correlates strongly with ice water path instead of with cloud fraction or liquid water path. Moreover, ASR overestimates cloud fraction and LENS underestimates liquid water path substantially, both with limited spatial variability. MERRA–2 best captures the observed interstation changes, captures most of the observed cloud–radiation physics, and largely reproduces both albedo and cloud properties. Furthermore, the warm center CRE spatial distribution indicates that clouds enhance surface melt in the higher accumulation zone and reduce surface melt in the lower ablation zone.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Online Model-Free DER Dispatch Via Adaptive Voltage Sensitivity Estimation and Chance Constrained Programming

This paper proposes an online data-driven distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) for distribution system optimal DER dispatch as well as voltage regulation. Here, the key innovation is to leverage the Local Sensitivity Factor (LSF) for transforming the DER control into a computationally efficient linear programming (LP) problem. By taking real-time measurements, the estimation of LSF eliminates the need for an accurate distribution system model as well as full nodal load information, which is difficult to achieve in practice. A robust recursive least squares method is also developed to ensure the robust estimation of LSF, which is initialized using reasonable values from model-derived LSFs. This allows the system to adapt to changing operational conditions effectively. A scenario-based, chance-constrained framework is further employed to ensure voltage remains within acceptable limits in the presence of measurement and estimation uncertainties. Test results on a real-world, 759-node distribution network located in western Colorado, U.S., validate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control approach and demonstrate its superior performance as compared to alternative methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2013

Herschel's "Cold Debris Disks": Background Galaxies or Quiescent Rims of Planetary Systems?

Infrared excesses associated with debris disk host stars detected so far peak at wavelengths around approx, 100 micron or shorter. However, 6 out of 31 excess sources studied in the Herschel Open Time Key Programme, DUNES, have been seen to show significant-and in some cases extended-excess emission at 160 micron, which is larger than the 100 micron excess. This excess emission has been attributed to circumstellar dust and has been suggested to stem from debris disks colder than those known previously. Since the excess emission of the cold disk candidates is extremely weak, challenging even the unrivaled sensitivity of Herschel, it is prudent to carefully consider whether some or even all of them may represent unrelated galactic or extragalactic emission, or even instrumental noise. We re-address these issues using several distinct methods and conclude that it is highly unlikely that none of the candidates represents a true circumstellar disk. For true disks, both the dust temperatures inferred from the spectral energy distributions and the disk radii estimated from the images suggest that the dust is nearly as cold as a blackbody. This requires the grains to be larger than approx. 100 micron, even if they are rich in ices or are composed of any other material with a low absorption in the visible. The dearth of small grains is puzzling, since collisional models of debris disks predict that grains of all sizes down to several times the radiation pressure blowout limit should be present. We explore several conceivable scenarios: transport-dominated disks, disks of low dynamical excitation, and disks of unstirred primordial macroscopic grains. Our qualitative analysis and collisional simulations rule out the first two of these scenarios, but show the feasibility of the third one. We show that such disks can indeed survive for gigayears, largely preserving the primordial size distribution. They should be composed of macroscopic solids larger than millimeters, but smaller than a few kilometers in size. If larger planetesimals were present, then they would stir the disk, triggering a collisional cascade and thus causing production of small debris, which is not seen. Thus, planetesimal formation, at least in the outer regions of the systems, has stopped before "cometary" or "asteroidal" sizes were reached.

Herschel↗
DOE OSTI2021

2020 Cost of Wind Energy Review

This report uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based and offshore wind power plants in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2020 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This report represents the tenth annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving estimates of sub-daily gross primary production from solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence by accounting for light distribution within canopy

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has long been regarded as a proxy for photosynthesis and has shown superiority in estimating gross primary production (GPP) compared to traditional vegetation indices, especially in evergreen ecosystems. However, current SIF-based GPP estimations regard the canopy as a large leaf and seldom consider the impact of interactions among light, canopy structure, and leaf physiology. In this study, we proposed GPP estimation models with different descriptions of light–structure–physiology interactions (including the layered model, the two-leaf model, and the layered two-leaf model) and compared their performances with the big-leaf model using half-hourly (or hourly) observations at evergreen needleleaf forest sites. First, we found that the big-leaf model underestimated GPP, especially at noon. All models showed higher accuracy than that of the big-leaf model. Second, we investigated the diurnal dynamics of GPP estimations in each canopy layer and found that models with a two-leaf assumption captured the diurnal variations in GPP better than that with the layered assumption. Here we also deduced that the poor performance of the big-leaf model was related to its overestimation of the overall light stress on the redox state of PSII reaction centers (qL). Finally, we noticed that the qL at the canopy scale had lower sensitivity to light change than the single-leaf qL and that the light response of canopy-scale qL was influenced by the leaf area index during seasonal cycles. Overall, this study describes methods to accurately estimate sub-daily GPP from SIF in evergreen needleleaf forests and demonstrates that the interactions among light, canopy structure, and leaf physiology regulate the SIF-GPP relationship at the canopy scale. Further, it indicates the need to consider the description of light distribution within the canopy in next-generation terrestrial biosphere models, even if they incorporate SIF to constrain their parameterization. Thus, upscaling the established leaf-scale mechanistic SIF-GPP relationship or findings to canopy-scale applications still requires much work, especially when there are significant changes in environmental conditions and their within-canopy distributions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models: Preprint

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to inter-hourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of said approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating two different clipping correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons will be performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The models can improve accuracy up to 3% in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

clipping↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Combined Lidar and Polarimeter Measurements of Cloud Top Parameters (Extinction, Scattering Cross Sections, and Droplet Number Density, Liquid Water Content)

We present a new method to derive profiles of extinction from a lidar which is then combined with polarimeter measurements to derive cloud droplet number density (CDNC) in the tops of warm clouds. The method employs polarization-sensitive elastic backscatter lidar measurements to estimate attenuation of the lidar signal within the cloud and polarimeter estimates of cloud droplet size distributions. The measurements used for this demonstration are from NASA Langley Research Center’s High Spectral Resolution Lidar – Generation 2 (HSRL-2) and NASA GISS’s Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). The measurements were acquired on NASA’s ACTIVATE mission, during which the instruments were deployed in a down-looking mode from a high-altitude aircraft, which flew in coordination with a low-flying aircraft acquiring coincident in situ measurements of cloud droplet size and number. The high vertical (1.25 m) and horizontal (~50 m) sampling resolution of the HSRL-2 data enabled retrievals of single-scattering extinction profiles to within ~2.5 optical depths of cloud top. Another key feature of the method was the well-calibrated measurement of backscatter at cloud top due to using the HSRL technique. The RSP retrievals of cloud droplet effective radius and variance were accomplished using the “cloud-bow” technique. Overall, the technique provides extinction profile estimates for the top 2.5 optical depths of water clouds that can be used to estimate the cloud droplet number density in various types of warm clouds. The mean extinction values at cloud top (0-1 optical depth) are compared against cloud drop size and number concentration acquired from wing-mounted probes (e.g., DMT Cloud Droplet Probe - CDP, SPEC Fast Cloud Droplet Probe FCDP, and SPEC 2D Stereo Probe - 2DS) that were deployed on the low-flying aircraft. Comparisons between the effective radius and variance from the polarimeter, lidar ratio (extinction to backscatter) from the lidar and polarimeter, and LWC are also presented. All measurements were acquired over the Western North Atlantic over 3 years from 2020 to 2022.

lidar↗
DOE OSTI2019

Climatic controls of decomposition drive the global biogeography of forest-tree symbioses

The identity of the dominant microbial symbionts in a forest determines the ability of trees to access limiting nutrients from atmospheric or soil pools, sequester carbon and withstand the impacts of climate change. Characterizing the global distribution of symbioses, and identifying the factors that control it, are thus integral to understanding present and future forest ecosystem functioning. In this work we generate the first spatially explicit global map of forest symbiotic status using a database of over 1.1 million forest inventory plots with over 28,000 tree species. Our analyses indicate that climatic variables, and in particular climatically-controlled variation in decomposition rate, are the primary drivers of the global distribution of major symbioses. We estimate that ectomycorrhizal (EM) trees, which represent only 2% of all plant species, constitute approximately 60% of tree stems on Earth. EM symbiosis dominates forests where seasonally cold and dry climates inhibit decomposition, and are the predominant symbiosis at high latitudes and elevation. On the other hand, arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) trees dominate aseasonally warm tropical forests and occur with EM trees in temperate biomes where seasonally warm-and-wet climates enhance decomposition. Continental transitions between AM and EM dominated forests occur relatively abruptly along climate driven decomposition gradients, which is likely caused by positive plant-microbe feedbacks. Symbiotic N-fixers, which are insensitive to climatic controls on decomposition compared with mycorrhizal fungi, are most abundant in arid biomes with alkaline soils and high maximum temperatures. The climatically driven global symbiosis gradient we document represents the first spatially-explicit, quantitative understanding of microbial symbioses at the global scale and demonstrates the critical role of microbial mutualisms in shaping the distribution of plant species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Global Distribution and 14-Year Changes in Erythemal Irradiance, UV Atmospheric Transmission, and Total Column Ozone 2005 – 2018 Estimated from OMI and EPIC Observations

Satellite data from the Ozone Measuring Instrument (OMI) and Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) are used to study changes and global distribution of UV erythemal irradiance in mW/m(exp 2) E(ζ,φ,z,t) and the dimensionless UV index (E/25 mWm(exp 2)) over the Earth’s surface as a function of latitude ζ, longitude φ, altitude z, and time t. OMI time series data starting in January 2005 to December 2018 are used to estimate 14-year changes in erythemal irradiance, total column ozone TCO3, scene reflectivity LER, and aerosol absorption τA at specific land sites in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using publicly available OMI data. Estimates of changes in atmospheric transmission ΔCτ(ζ,φ,z,t) derived from OMI measured cloud and haze reflectivity show an increase between 60°S to 45°S almost no average 14-year change from 55°S to 30°N but show an increase from 35°N to 55°N. This implies increased solar insolation at higher latitudes that suggests positive feedback for global warming. Changes in aerosol absorption of UV irradiance ΔCA(ζ,φ,z,t) derived from changes in τA are mostly in the equatorial region and at higher southern latitudes resulting in correlated changes in E. TCO3 derived from OMI data has increased at a rate of 2% per decade for the latitudes between 60°S to 10°N changing to a decrease of 1% per decade between 40°N to 60°N. The result is an average decrease in E(ζ,φ,z,t) at a rate of 2% per decade in the Southern Hemisphere and an increase between 40°N to 60°N. For some specific sites (latitudes from 55°S to 45°N) there has been little or no change in E(ζ,φ,z,t) for the period 2005 – 2018. Nearly half the sites show strong correlation effects of both short- and long-term cloud and absorbing aerosol change as well as anticorrelation with total column ozone change ΔTCO3. Synoptic EPIC data from the sunlit Earth are used to derive ozone and reflectivity needed for global images of the distribution of E(ζ,φ,z,t) from sunrise to sunset centered on the Americas, Europe-Africa, and Asia. EPIC data are used to show the latitudinal distribution of E(ζ,φ,z,t) from the equator to 75° for specific longitudes. Dangerously high amounts of erythemal irradiance (12 < UV index < 18) are found for many low latitude and high-altitude sites (e.g., San Pedro, Chile (2.45 km), La Paz, Bolivia (3.78 km). Lower UV indices at some equatorial or high-altitude sites (e.g., Quito, Ecuador) are moderated by the presence of persistent cloud effects. High UVI levels (UVI > 6) are also found at most mid-latitude sites during the summer months.

Ozone Measuring Instrument (OMI) and Earth Polychr↗
NASA NTRS1989

Infrared Emission from Comets

A brief discussion of the infrared observations from 4 to 20 micrometers of seven comets is presented. The observed infrared emission from comets depends primarily on their heliocentric distance. A model based on grain populations composed of a mixture of silicate and amorphous carbon particles in the mass ratio of about 40 to 1, with a power-law size distribution similar to that inferred for comet Halley, is applied to the observations. The model provides a good match to the observed heliocentric variation of both the 10 micrometers feature and the overall thermal emission from comets West and Halley. Matches to the observations of comet IRAS-Araki-Alcock and the antitail of comet Kohoutek require slightly larger grains. While the model does not match the exact profile and position of the 3.4 micrometers feature discovered in comet Halley, it does produce a qualitative fit to the observed variation of the feature's strength as a function of heliocentric distance. The calculations predict that the continuum under the 3.4 micrometers feature is due primarily to thermal emission from the comet dust when the comet is close to the Sun and to scattered solar radiation at large heliocentric distances, as is observed. A brief discussion of the determination of cometary grain temperatures from the observed infrared emission is presented. It is found that the observed shape of the emission curve from about 4 to 8 micrometers provides the best spectral region for estimating the cometary grain temperature distribution.

Swamy, K. S. Krishna↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the small-scale 3D Lyman- α forest power spectrum

Small-scale correlations measured in the Lyman-α (Lyα) forest encode information about the intergalactic medium and the primordial matter power spectrum. In this article, we present and implement a simple method to measure the 3-dimensional power spectrum, P 3D , of the Lyα forest at wavenumbers k corresponding to small, ~ Mpc scales. In order to estimate P 3D from sparsely and unevenly distributed data samples, we rely on averaging 1-dimensional Fourier Transforms, as previously carried out to estimate the 1-dimensional power spectrum of the Lyα forest, P 1D . Further, this methodology exhibits a very low computational cost. We confirm the validity of this approach through its application to Nyx cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Subsequently, we apply our method to the eBOSS DR16 Lyα forest sample, providing as a proof of principle, a first P 3D measurement averaged over two redshift bins z = 2.2 and z = 2.4. This work highlights the potential for forthcoming P 3D measurements, from upcoming large spectroscopic surveys, to untangle degeneracies in the cosmological interpretation of P 1D .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The High-redshift Clusters Occupied by Bent Radio AGN (COBRA) Survey: The Spitzer Catalog

We present 190 galaxy cluster candidates (most at high redshift) based on galaxy overdensity measurements in the Spitzer/IRAC imaging of the fields surrounding 646 bent, double-lobed radio sources drawn from the Clusters Occupied by Bent Radio AGN (COBRA) Survey. The COBRA sources were chosen as objects in the Very Large Array FIRST survey that lack optical counterparts in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to a limit of m {sub r} = 22, making them likely to lie at high redshift. This is confirmed by our observations: the redshift distribution of COBRA sources with estimated redshifts peaks near z = 1 and extends out to z≈3. Cluster candidates were identified by comparing our target fields to a background field and searching for statistically significant (⩾2σ) excesses in the galaxy number counts surrounding the radio sources; 190 fields satisfy the ⩾2σ limit. We find that 530 fields (82.0%) have a net positive excess of galaxies surrounding the radio source. Many of the fields with positive excesses but below the 2σ cutoff are likely to be galaxy groups. Forty-one COBRA sources are quasars with known spectroscopic redshifts, which may be tracers of some of the most distant clusters known.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to subhourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

accuracy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to sub-hourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design, scaling and cost evaluations of circulating fluidized-bed systems for biomass pyrolysis

To generate updated and transparent capital cost estimates for biomass fast pyrolysis equipment, refinery fluidized catalytic cracking design and sizing principles are examined and extended to pyrolysis of woody biomass. Capital costs for the sized equipment are estimated with process-industry software. A one-dimensional flow simulation with pyrolysis kinetics is leveraged to validate the fluidization conditions and thermal energy balance. After successful sizing and a system cost estimate of $\$$2.8 M (in 2016 US$\$$) at the biorefinery scale of 1000 metric tons per day (MTD), these methods were exercised for even smaller equipment at the distributed pyrolysis scale with modifications to the process design constraints, and not directly comparable with the 1000 MTD case, arriving at capital cost estimates of $\$$1.2 M for a 500 ton/day system and $\$$0.9 M for a 200 ton/day system. Here in this work, It is noted that this work only estimates purchased equipment costs at the ±50% accuracy level; there are significant other custom factors applicable to each installation based on location, maturity, scale, complexities during installation, engineering and licensing costs, etc. that need to be added on to these estimates to derive investment costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Effect of non-Poisson samples on turbulence spectra from laser velocimetry

Spectral analysis of laser velocimetry (LV) data plays an important role in characterizing a turbulent flow and in estimating the associated turbulence scales, which can be helpful in validating theoretical and numerical turbulence models. The determination of turbulence scales is critically dependent on the accuracy of the spectral estimates. Spectral estimations from 'individual realization' laser velocimetry data are typically based on the assumption of a Poisson sampling process. What this Note has demonstrated is that the sampling distribution must be considered before spectral estimates are used to infer turbulence scales.

Sree, Dave↗
NASA NTRS1974

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗