SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Data Extrapolation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,477 records · Page 82

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of machine learning (ML), specifically neural networks, has grown significantly and has spurred research in its applicability to digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C). While ML models have shown promise in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of using such algorithms has not been adequately assessed. Failures of ML integrated systems are not well understood, and the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness in these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) [1] and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) [2], they indicate that trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier and will play a vital role in the safe, accountable, and secure operation of intelligent systems. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a dynamic model-agnostic method to quantify the relative reliability of AI/ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution (OOD) detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that most ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but experience significant performance degradation at extrapolation. The method, referenced as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets which can used to the relative reliability of AI/ML predictions. LADDR is then demonstrated on a feedforward neural network based digital twin used for the prediction of safety significant factors during a loss-of-flow transient. LADDR is used to demonstrate how training data can be used as evidence to support the relative reliability of ML/AI predictions enhancing the overall trustworthiness of the system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temperature Uncertainty Modeling with Proxy Structural Data as Geostatistical Constraints for Well Siting: An Example Applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aim of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations . The data used to support the modeling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modeling, the latter considered "secondary" data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally likely temperature models (i.e., realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: Vprior and entropy. Vprior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e., linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g., dilation versus distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, Vprior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with highe r probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comp arison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

3D temperature modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Life Models for Li-Ion Batteries Using Penalized Regression and Bilevel Optimization

Reduced-order physics-based life models are extremely useful for rapidly predicting battery state-of-health and for simulating battery lifetime in arbitrary aging conditions. However, identification of well-parameterized models is difficult. This is because, for maximum usefulness in predicting lifetime under a variety of conditions, aging test data exhibits many degradation mechanisms, which all need to be accurately modeled. However, because aging tests are time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-format batteries, a minimum of tests are conducted while probing many stress factors. Building a well-parameterized model is then very challenging: an under-parameterized model will neglect critical degradation modes, and an over-parameterized model will extrapolate poorly to new testing conditions. To complicate this matter, the functional form of the model for any individual degradation rate can be very difficult to identify. In this work, the statistical tools of penalized regression and bilevel optimization are used to help identify both the functional forms of and optimize the parameters of reduced-order life models, accelerating identification of robust models. Model robustness is demonstrated through traditional statistics methods of cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification through bootstrap resampling and Monte-Carlo simulation, and simulation of real-world use cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for predicting steady-state single-phase natural circulation

The validation of system analysis codes for nuclear reactor systems is required for the development and application of these computational tools. Designed as a comprehensive system analysis code for advanced nuclear reactors, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 requires validation of its physics model for capturing single-phase natural circulation behavior. To support the validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1, high-precision experiments are performed capturing steady-state single-phase natural circulation on a scaled facility with comprehensive instrumentation. In this work, dedicated tests are performed quantifying the critical modeling parameters, and a single-phase natural circulation benchmark dataset is obtained with well-documented uncertainty and comprehensive facility description. The validation is then performed against the dataset examining the capability of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in simulating steady-state single-phase natural circulation. The experimental facility is modeled in the candidate code. Solution verification is performed using Richardson-extrapolation-based estimators which quantify and restrict numerical errors from discretization. Input uncertainty provided by the benchmark dataset is forward propagated through the candidate code, quantifying the output uncertainty in a Monte Carlo approach. The composition of the output uncertainty is also quantified through a variance-based sensitivity analysis. With the uncertainty quantified for each individual condition, a detailed comparison between the simulation results and experimental data is performed covering the whole dataset. The results show consistent agreement for all primary parameters. The current validation activity provides a valuable benchmark dataset for the validation of system analysis codes in capturing single-phase natural circulation and demonstrates satisfactory prediction capability of SAS4A/SASSYS1 for steady-state single-phase natural circulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving equations of state calibrations in the toroidal DAC—The case study of molybdenum

We report an updated isothermal equation of state (EoS) of molybdenum (Mo) obtained by compression in beveled and toroidal diamond-anvil cells (DACs). For an improved compression environment, we developed a copper (Cu) pressure-transmitting medium (PTM) for the toroidal diamond-anvil cell samples, as it is a soft metal compared to Mo with a well calibrated EoS. A Ne PTM was used for the conventional beveled DAC samples. The unit-cell volumes of Mo were measured to 336(1) GPa in the Cu PTM and 231.2(6) GPa in the Ne PTM at room temperature. We additionally calculated elastic stiffness and compliance constants and evaluated the uniaxial stress of Mo and Cu with pressure. A new EoS for Mo is presented from data collected in all sample environments and compared to our theoretical predictions as well as previous compression studies of Mo. The (200) lattice plane of Mo produced the lowest volumes across the pressure range of this study for all compression environments, suggesting that it is less affected by nonhydrostatic stresses in the DAC compared to the other observed diffraction planes. The presented Mo EoS is compatible with extrapolations of EoS fits of Mo in helium (He) within ~1% at 330 GPa. Results from this work demonstrate that compressing a sample in a softer metal in the toroidal DAC can improve the compression environment and result in measured sample volumes comparable to those collected in noble-gas media at multi-megabar conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1981

The isotopic composition of Fe and fragmentation nuclei with Z equals 17-25

Using the combined data from 1976 and 1977 balloon flights the isotopic composition of cosmic ray Fe and fragmentation nuclei with Z equals 17-25 have been determined. The telescope used in these studies contains two Cerenkov counters and four total energy counters with an overall mass resolution sigma equals 0.35-0.40 amu. For Fe, approximately 320 nuclei with C/C(max) less than 0.5 are mass analyzed with the result extrapolated to the cosmic ray source, Fe-56 equals 0.952, Fe-54 equals 0.048 plus or minus 0.030 and Fe-58 less than 0.030 of all Fe. Two other isotopes are found to have a significant source abundance, A-36 with an abundance of 0.048 plus or minus 0.013 x Fe and Ca-40 equals 0.088 plus or minus 0.016 x Fe at the source. The source abundance of all other isotopes is less than 0.015 x Fe at the 1 sigma level. Of these fragmentation isotopes there is evidence that most of the Cl-36 has decayed as well as possibly some Mn-54.

Webber, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

InAsSbBi, a direct band-gap, III-V, LWIR material

In the last several years Dr. Stringfellow's group at the University of Utah has reported success in incorporating over 3 percent Bi in InAs and 1.5 percent in InAsSb using Organometallic Vapor Phase Epitaxy (OMVPE) growth techniques. For InAs the lattice constant increase is linear with a=6.058+0.966x (InAs(1-x)Bi(x)), and a decrease in band gap energy of dEg / dx = -55meV / at a percentage Bi. Extrapolating this to the ternary minimum band gap at InAs(0.35)Sb(0.65), an addition of 1 to 2 percent Bi should drop the band gap to the 0.1 to 0.05eV range (10 to 20 microns). These alloys are direct band gap semiconductors making them candidates for far IR detectors. The current status of the InAsSbBi alloys is that good crystal morphology and x ray diffraction data has been obtained for up to 3.4 percent Bi. The Bi is metastable at these concentrations but the OMVPE grown material has been able to withstand the 400 C growth temperature for several hours without phase separation.

Stringfellow, G. B.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Landsat Thematic Mapper monitoring of turbid inland water quality

This study reports on an investigation of water quality calibration algorithms under turbid inland water conditions using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) multispectral digital data. TM data and water quality observations (total suspended solids and Secchi disk depth) were obtained near-simultaneously and related using linear regression techniques. The relationships between reflectance and water quality for Green Bay and Lake Michigan were compared with results for Yellowstone and Jackson Lakes, Wyoming. Results show similarities in the water quality-reflectance relationships, however, the algorithms derived for Green Bay - Lake Michigan cannot be extrapolated to Yellowstone and Jackson Lake conditions.

Lathrop, Richard G., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temperature uncertainty modelling with proxy structural data as geostatistical constraints for well siting: an example applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural geology information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aims of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations. The data used to support the modelling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modelling (distance to fault, distance to fault intersections and terminations, Coulomb stress change and dilation tendency), the latter considered ‘secondary’ data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally-likely temperature models (i.e. realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: V prior and entropy. V prior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because of the dipping ellipsoid shape created and that the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e. linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g. dilation v. distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, V prior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with higher probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comparison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robust training of machine learning interatomic potentials with dimensionality reduction and stratified sampling

Abstract Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) enable accurate simulations of materials at scales beyond that accessible by ab initio methods and play an increasingly important role in the study and design of materials. However, MLIPs are only as accurate and robust as the data on which they are trained. Here, we present DImensionality-Reduced Encoded Clusters with sTratified (DIRECT) sampling as an approach to select a robust training set of structures from a large and complex configuration space. By applying DIRECT sampling on the Materials Project relaxation trajectories dataset with over one million structures and 89 elements, we develop an improved materials 3-body graph network (M3GNet) universal potential that extrapolates more reliably to unseen structures. We further show that molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with the M3GNet universal potential can be used instead of expensive ab initio MD to rapidly create a large configuration space for target systems. We combined this scheme with DIRECT sampling to develop a reliable moment tensor potential for titanium hydrides without the need for iterative augmentation of training structures. This work paves the way for robust high-throughput development of MLIPs across any compositional complexity.

Qi, Ji (ORCID:0000000158089931)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of spatiotemporal smoothing on the two-plasmon–decay instability

Higher levels of hot electrons from the two-plasmon–decay instability are observed when smoothing by spectral dispersion (SSD) is turned off in directly driven inertial confinement fusion experiments at the Omega Laser Facility. This finding is explained using a hot-spot model based on speckle statistics and simulation results from the laser–plasma simulation environment. The model accurately reproduces the relative increase in hot-electron activity at two different drive intensities, although it slightly overestimates the absolute number of hot electrons in all cases. Extrapolating from the current ≈ 360-GHz system while adhering to the logic of the hot-spot model suggests that larger SSD bandwidth should significantly mitigate hot-electron generation, and legacy 1-THz OMEGA experiments appear to support this conclusion. These results demonstrate that it is essential to account for laser speckles and spatiotemporal smoothing to obtain quantitative agreement with experiments. A compilation of hot-electron data from the past two decades reveals several other important points: (1) many prior experiments are more easily understood using recent results from multibeam absolute instability theory; and (2) experiments with ignition-scale conditions produce less hot electrons compared to OMEGA spherical experiments for a given vacuum overlapped intensity, which is a promising result for validating performance predictions based on hydrodynamic scaling relations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1985

Use of the synoptic view: Examples from Earth and other planets

Space technology has added the synoptic view to other techniques used in geomorphology. Synoptic views are provided by spacecraft images or by application of space technology to time-honored information systems. Examples of spacecraft images of Earth are LANDSAT, SEASAT, and the SIR (Shuttle Imaging Radar) series. Examples of applied space technologies include the digital conversion of topographic maps to shaded relief maps and digital correlation methods. From the study of other planets we have learned that synoptic views enable the deciphering of a planet's history: large features are identified and mapped before small ones; studies proceed from the general to the specific. On Earth, we generally recognize smaller features and study specific processes first, then extrapolate toward larger features and a general synthesis. With the advent of space images of Earth, perhaps the time is ripe to employ the methods used for other planets to the study of terrestrial geology and geomorphology. The following examples illustrate the use of regional-scale studies on Earth: the application of synoptic-view images in Antarctica, the use of digital methods and correlations of multiple data sets in regional studies, and some benefits to our understanding of terrestrial geology that have been obtained from analyses of other planets.

Lucchitta, B. K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Potential markets for advanced satellite communications

This report identifies trends in the volume and type of traffic offered to the U.S. domestic communications infrastructure and extrapolates these trends through the year 2011. To describe how telecommunications service providers are adapting to the identified trends, this report assesses the status, plans, and capacity of the domestic communications infrastructure. Cable, satellite, and radio components of the infrastructure are examined separately. The report also assesses the following major applications making use of the infrastructure: (1) Broadband services, including Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network (BISDN), Switched Multimegabit Data Service (SMDS), and frame relay; (2) mobile services, including voice, location, and paging; (3) Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT), including mesh VSAT; and (4) Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS) for audio and video. The report associates satellite implementation of specific applications with market segments appropriate to their features and capabilities. The volume and dollar value of these market segments are estimated. For the satellite applications able to address the needs of significant market segments, the report also examines the potential of each satellite-based application to capture business from alternative technologies.

Adamson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2009

Icy Satellites of Saturn: Impact Cratering and Age Determination

Saturn is the first giant planet to be visited by an orbiting spacecraft that can transmit large amounts of data to Earth. Crater counts on satellites from Phoebe inward to the regular satellites and ring moons are providing unprecedented insights into the origin and time histories of the impacting populations. Many Voyager-era scientists concluded that the satellites had been struck by at least two populations of impactors. In this view, the Population I impactors, which were generally judged to be comets orbiting the Sun, formed most of the larger and older craters, while Population II impactors, interpreted as Saturn-orbiting ejecta from impacts on satellites, produced most of the smaller and younger craters. Voyager data also implied that all of the ring moons, and probably some of the midsized classical moons, had been catastrophically disrupted and reaccreted since they formed. We examine models of the primary impactor populations in the Saturn system. At the present time, ecliptic comets, which likely originate in the Kuiper belt/scattered disk, are predicted to dominate impacts on the regular satellites and ring moons, but the models require extrapolations in size (from the observed Kuiper belt objects to the much smaller bodies that produce the craters) or in distance (from the known active Jupiter family comets to 9.5 AU). Phoebe, Iapetus, and perhaps even moons closer to Saturn have been struck by irregular satellites as well. We describe the Nice model, which provides a plausible mechanism by which the entire Solar System might have experienced an era of heavy bombardment long after the planets formed. We then discuss the three cratering chronologies, including one based upon the Nice model, that have been used to infer surface ages from crater densities on the saturnian satellites. After reviewing scaling relations between the properties of impactors and the craters they produce, we provide model estimates of the present-day rate at which comets impact, and catastrophically disrupt, the saturnian moons. Finally, we present crater counts on the satellites from two different groups. Many of the heavily cratered terrains appear to be nearly saturated, so it is difficult to infer the provenance of the impactors from crater counts alone. More large craters have been found on Iapetus than on any other satellite. Enceladus displays an enormous range of surface ages, ranging from the old mid-latitude plains to the extremely young South Polar Terrain. Cassini images provide some evidence for the reality of Population II. Most of the observed craters may have formed in one or more cataclysms, but more work is needed to determine the roles of heliocentric and planetocentric bodies in creating the craters.

Dones, L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Laboratory Simulations of Martian and Venusian Aeolian Processes

With the flyby of the Neptune system by Voyager, the preliminary exploration of the Solar System was accomplished. Data have been returned for all major planets and satellites except the Pluto system. Results show that the surfaces of terrestrial planets and satellites have been subjected to a wide variety of geological processes. On solid- surface planetary objects having an atmosphere, aeolian processes are important in modifying their surfaces through the redistribution of fine-grained material by the wind. Bedrock may be eroded to produce particles and the particles transported by wind for deposition in other areas. This process operates on Earth today and is evident throughout the geological record. Aeolian processes also occur on Mars, Venus, and possibly Titan and Triton, both of which are outer planet satellites that have atmospheres. Mariner 9 and Viking results show abundant wind-related landforms on Mars, including dune fields and yardangs (wind-eroded hills). On Venus, measurements made by the Soviet Venera and Vega spacecraft and extrapolations from the Pioneer Venus atmospheric probes show that surface winds are capable of transporting particulate materials and suggest that aeolian processes may operate on that planet as well. Magellan radar images of Venus show abundant wind streaks in some areas, as well as dune fields and a zone of possible yardangs. The study of planetary aeolian processes must take into account diverse environments, from the cold, low-density atmosphere of Mars to the extremely hot, high- density Venusian atmosphere. Factors such as threshold wind speeds (minimum wind velocity needed to move particles), rates of erosion and deposition, trajectories of windblown particles, and aeolian flow fields over various landforms are all important aspects of the problem. In addition, study of aeolian terrains on Earth using data analogous to planetary data-collection systems is critical to the interpretation of spacecraft information and places constraints on results from numerical models and laboratory simulations.

Greeley, Ronald↗

DOE OSTI2025

GRAPH — an readout ASIC for large MCP based detectors

We present a programmable 16 channel, mixed signal, low power readout ASIC, having the project historically named Gigasample Recorder of Analog waveforms from a PHotodetector (GRAPH). It is designed to read large aperture single photon imaging detectors using micro channel plates for charge multiplication, and measuring the detector's response on crossed strips anodes to extrapolate the incoming photon position. Each channel consists of a fast, low power and low noise charge sensitive amplifier, which provides a myriad of coarse and fine programmable options for gain and shaping settings. Further, the amplified signal is recorded using, to our knowledge novel, the Hybrid Universal sampLing Architecture (HULA) ADC. A kind of mixed signal double buffer memory, that enables concurrent waveform recording, and selected event digitized data extraction. The sampling frequency is freely adjustable between few kHz up to 125 MHz, while the chip's internal digital memory holds a history 2048 samples for each channel, with a digital headroom of 12 bits. An optimized region of interest sample-read algorithm allows to extract the information just around the event pulse peak, while selecting the next event, thus substantially reducing the operational dead time. The chip is designed in 130 nm TSMC CMOS technology, and its power consumption is around 47 mW per channel.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Determining Microbial Roles in Ecosystem Function: Redefining Microbial Food Webs and Transcending Kingdom Barriers

Microorganisms can have a profound and varying effect on the chemical character of environments and, thereby, ecological health. Their capacity to consume or transform contaminants leads to contrasting outcomes, such as the dissipation of nutrient pollution via denitrification, the breakdown of spilled oil, or eutrophication via primary producer overgrowth. Recovering the genomes of organisms directly from the environment is useful to gain insights into resource usage, interspecies collaborations (producers and consumers), and trait acquisition. Microbial data can also be considered alongside the broader biological character of an environment through the co-recovery of eukaryotic DNA. The contributions of individual microorganisms (bacteria, archaea, and protists) to snapshots of ecosystem processes can be determined by integrating genomics with functional methods. This combined approach enables a detailed understanding of how microbial communities drive biogeochemical cycles, and although currently limited by scale, key attributes can be effectively extrapolated with lower-resolution methods to determine wider ecological relevance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data from: "Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions"

This archive contains data files that were used to draw conclusions in “Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions”, by Moyes et al., 2015. All field research was completed in common garden plots set up as part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.There are two main data file formats in this archive: comma-separated values (.csv), and Microsoft Excel (.xls and .xlsx). .xlsx files can be read using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, and .csv files can be read using any simple text editor program, such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows). This .pdf data user’s guide can be read using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible software. Seedling photographs and their corresponding leaf area-processed images are available in .jpg/.JPG image format, and can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). To provide additional spatial context, two types of geospatial files are also published in this data package: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and .kml files. Shapefiles are compatible with any GIS software able to read the file type (such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcGIS suite), and .kml files can be opened with Google Earth or Google Maps. Figures 3 and 4 in the publication contain data from Moyes et al. 2013. This publication is cited in the References section in this archive, and data files can be accessed via the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment project portal on ESS-DIVE. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.- We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season.- Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15–30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions.- Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗