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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Evaluation of Thompson-type trend and monthly weather data models for corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

An evaluation was made of Thompson-Type models which use trend terms (as a surrogate for technology), meteorological variables based on monthly average temperature, and total precipitation to forecast and estimate corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Pooled and unpooled Thompson-type models were compared. Neither was found to be consistently superior to the other. Yield reliability indicators show that the models are of limited use for large area yield estimation. The models are objective and consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield forecasts and estimates can be made during the growing season by using normals or long range weather forecasts. The models are not costly to operate and are easy to use and understand. The model standard errors of prediction do not provide a useful current measure of modeled yield reliability.

French, V.↗

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part II: Integrated Vehicle

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) thermal management system (TMS) relies on four loop heat pipes (LHPs) to transport electronic waste heat to the vehicle cooling radiative surface and avoid overheating. The TMS has also ten constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) dedicated to balance the thermal load within the internal environment where the avionics boxes are mounted, also called warm electronic box (WEB), and to transport the heat from two of the science payload instruments. The TMS also uses two thermal straps to thermally link the batteries to the WEB. These thermal components, in addition to heaters, thermostat, multi-layer insulation (MLIs), and isolators forms the core of the VIPER TMS. The complex heat transport balance managed by the TMS is challenging to characterize and model. The more fidelity and granularity of a model, the more costly the computational resources needed and the longer the simulation and modeling time. When the priority is to provide quick but reliable assessments of the thermal performance or real time thermal feedback for training of console operators, simplified modeling tools are needed. To satisfy that need, this paper describes the effort to develop and correlate a model of VIPER TMS based on control volume approach. The correlation effort in particular focuses on hibernation, cold thermal balance, and hot thermal balance data from the integrated vehicle thermal vacuum (TVAC) test. Thus, the correlated model captures the heat leaks during hibernations and the performance at two extremes, bounding, operating scenarios.

Loop Heat Pipe↗

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part II: Integrated Vehicle

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) thermal management system (TMS) relies on four loop heat pipes (LHPs) to transport electronic waste heat to the vehicle cooling radiative surface and avoid overheating. The TMS has also ten constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) dedicated to balance the thermal load within the internal environment where the avionics boxes are mounted, also called warm electronic box (WEB), and to transport the heat from two of the science payload instruments. The TMS also uses two thermal straps to thermally link the batteries to the WEB. These thermal components, in addition to heaters, thermostat, multi-layer insulation (MLIs), and isolators forms the core of the VIPER TMS. The complex heat transport balance managed by the TMS is challenging to characterize and model. The more fidelity and granularity of a model, the more costly the computational resources needed and the longer the simulation and modeling time. When the priority is to provide quick but reliable assessments of the thermal performance or real time thermal feedback for training of console operators, simplified modeling tools are needed. To satisfy that need, this paper describes the effort to develop and correlate a model of VIPER TMS based on control volume approach. The correlation effort in particular focuses on hibernation, cold thermal balance, and hot thermal balance data from the integrated vehicle thermal vacuum (TVAC) test. Thus, the correlated model captures the heat leaks during hibernations and the performance at two extremes, bounding, operating scenarios.

Thermal Modeling↗

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Columbia County Habitat for Humanity Passive Townhomes

Columbia County (New York) Habitat for Humanity built a pair of townhomes to Passive House criteria with the purpose of exploring approaches for achieving Passive House performance and to eventually develop a prototype design for future projects. The project utilized a 2x6 frame wall with a structural insulated panel curtain wall and a ventilated attic over a sealed OSB ceiling air barrier. Mechanical systems include a single head, wall mounted ductless mini-split heat pump in each unit and a heat recovery ventilator. Costs were $26,000 per unit higher for Passive House construction compared with the same home built to ENERGY STAR version 3 specifications, representing about 18% of total construction cost. This report discusses the cost components, energy modeling results and lessons from construction. Two alternative ventilation systems are analyzed: a central system; and, a point-source system with small through-wall units distributed throughout the house. The report includes a design and cost analysis of these two approaches.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Building America Case Study: Columbia County Habitat for Humanity Passive Townhomes, Hudson, New York

Columbia County (New York) Habitat for Humanity built a pair of townhomes to Passive House criteria with the purpose of exploring approaches for achieving Passive House performance and to eventually develop a prototype design for future projects. The project utilized a 2x6 frame wall with a structural insulated panel curtain wall and a ventilated attic over a sealed OSB ceiling air barrier. Mechanical systems include a single head, wall mounted ductless mini-split heat pump in each unit and a heat recovery ventilator. Costs were $26,000 per unit higher for Passive House construction compared with the same home built to ENERGY STAR version 3 specifications, representing about 18 percent of total construction cost. This report discusses the cost components, energy modeling results and lessons from construction. Two alternative ventilation systems are analyzed: a central system; and, a point-source system with small through-wall units distributed throughout the house. The report includes a design and cost analysis of these two approaches.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

End-to-End Trade-Space Analysis for Designing Constellation

Multipoint measurement missions can provide a significant advancement in science return and this science interest coupled with as many recent technological advances are driving a growing trend in exploring distributed architectures for future NASA missions. Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) leverage multiple spacecraft to achieve one or more common goals. In particular, a constellation is the most general form of DSM with two or more spacecraft placed into specific orbit(s) for the purpose of serving a common objective (e.g., CYGNSS). Because a DSM architectural trade-space includes both monolithic and distributed design variables, DSM optimization is a large and complex problem with multiple conflicting objectives. Over the last two years, our team has been developing a Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), implemented in common programming languages for pre-Phase A constellation mission analysis. By evaluating alternative mission architectures, TAT-C seeks to minimize cost and maximize performance for pre-defined science goals. This presentation will describe the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) at several levels of details and user expertise; Trade-space Search Requests that are created from the Science requirements gathered by the UI and validated by a Knowledge Base; a Knowledge Base to compare the current requests to prior mission concepts to potentially prune the trade-space; a Trade-space Search Iterator which, with inputs from the Knowledge Base, and, in collaboration with the Orbit & Coverage, Reduction & Metrics, and Cost& Risk modules, generates multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, modeling orbits to balance accuracy and performance. The current version includes uniform and non-uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc and precessing constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The current GUI automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost. The end-to-end system will be demonstrated as part of the presentation.

Mission Desig↗

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Single Fraction of Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy Compared With Single Fraction of External Beam Radiation Therapy for Palliation of Vertebral Bone Metastases

Purpose: Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) has been proposed for the palliation of painful vertebral bone metastases because higher radiation doses may result in superior and more durable pain control. A phase III clinical trial (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0631) comparing single fraction SBRT with single fraction external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) in palliative treatment of painful vertebral bone metastases is now ongoing. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare these strategies. Methods and Materials: A Markov model, using a 1-month cycle over a lifetime horizon, was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of SBRT (16 or 18 Gy in 1 fraction) with that of 8 Gy in 1 fraction of EBRT. Transition probabilities, quality of life utilities, and costs associated with SBRT and EBRT were captured in the model. Costs were based on Medicare reimbursement in 2014. Strategies were compared using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and effectiveness was measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). To account for uncertainty, 1-way, 2-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Strategies were evaluated with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained. Results: Base case pain relief after the treatment was assumed as 20% higher in SBRT. Base case treatment costs for SBRT and EBRT were $9000 and $1087, respectively. In the base case analysis, SBRT resulted in an ICER of $124,552 per QALY gained. In 1-way sensitivity analyses, results were most sensitive to variation of the utility of unrelieved pain; the utility of relieved pain after initial treatment and median survival were also sensitive to variation. If median survival is ≥11 months, SBRT cost <$100,000 per QALY gained. Conclusion: SBRT for palliation of vertebral bone metastases is not cost-effective compared with EBRT at a $100,000 per QALY gained WTP threshold. However, if median survival is ≥11 months, SBRT costs ≤$100,000 per QALY gained, suggesting that selective SBRT use in patients with longer expected survival may be the most cost-effective approach.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C)

Traditionally, space missions have relied on relatively large and monolithic satellites, but in the past few years, under a changing technological and economic environment, including instrument and spacecraft miniaturization, scalable launchers, secondary launches as well as hosted payloads, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best costrisk value? The main goals of TAT-C are to: Handle multiple spacecraft sharing a mission objective, from SmallSats up through flagships, Explore the variables trade space for pre-defined science, cost and risk goals, and pre-defined metrics Optimize cost and performance across multiple instruments and platforms vs. one at a time.This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI, then formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator first with inputs from the Knowledge Base, then, in collaboration with the Orbit Coverage, Reduction Metrics, and Cost Risk modules, generating multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, streamlining the computations by modeling orbits in a way that balances accuracy and performance.TAT-C current version includes uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The Knowledge Base supports both analysis and exploration, and the current GUI prototype automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost.

Science Data Processing↗

Dynamic stall of an oscillating wing. Part 1: Evaluation of turbulence models

Unsteady flowfields of a two-dimensional oscillating wing are calculated using an implicit, finite-difference, Navier-Stokes numerical scheme using five widely used turbulence models. The objective of this study is to identify an appropriate turbulence model for accurate simulation of three-dimensional dynamic stall. Three unsteady flow conditions corresponding to attached flow, light-stall, and deep-stall of an oscillating wing experiment were chosen as test cases for computations. Results of unsteady airload hysteresis curves, harmonics of unsteady pressures, and instantaneous flow pictures are presented. Comparison of unsteady airloads with experiment show that all models are deficient in some sense and not a single model predicts all airloads consistently and in agreement with experiment for all flow conditions. For the attached flow condition, the Renormalization Group Theory (RNG), the Johnoson-King (J-K), and the Spalart-Allmaras (S-A) models have better performance. The Baldwin-Lomax (B-L) and the Baldwin-Barth (B-B) models fair poorly. At the light-stall condition, the results for the RNG, the J-K, and S-A models are in agreement with experiment for the upstroke but they all over predict the separation shown by the experiment and therefore have bigger hysteresis loops than experimental results. The B-B model results are also in good agreement for upstroke but have poor lift hysteresis for downstroke. It has superior drag and pitching-moment predictions. For deep-stall conditions, the airloads for the RNG, the B -B, and the S-A models have fair agreement with experiment, but the B-B model performed better at the extreme deep-stall condition. Overall, the RNG model provides significant improvement over the B-L model in all flow regimes with no additional computational cost. The Baldwin-Barth model is the most expensive of the models considered here, costing about 2.5 times that of the Baldwin-Lomax model. Finally, a brief discussion of the effects of grid density, time-step size, and numerical dissipation on the unsteady solutions are also presented.

Srinivasan, G. R.↗

Validation of a reduced-order jet model for subsonic and underexpanded hydrogen jets

Much effort has been made to model hydrogen releases from leaks during potential failures of hydrogen storage systems. A reduced-order jet model can be used to quickly characterize these flows, with low computational cost. Notional nozzle models are often used to avoid modeling the complex shock structures produced by the underexpanded jets by determining an “effective” source to produce the observed downstream trends. In our work, the mean hydrogen concentration fields were measured in a series of subsonic and underexpanded jets using a planar laser Rayleigh scattering system. Furthermore, we compared the experimental data to a reduced order jet model for subsonic flows and a notional nozzle model coupled to the jet model for underexpanded jets. The values of some key model parameters were determined by comparisons with the experimental data. Finally, the coupled model was also validated against hydrogen concentrations measurements for 100 and 200 bar hydrogen jets with the predictions agreeing well with data in the literature.

08 HYDROGEN↗

The Potential Role for New Nuclear in the U.S. Power System: A View from Electricity System Modelers

There are diverse views on the role nuclear power might play in a decarbonized energy system, with some vocal viewpoints suggesting nuclear should either have no role or that nuclear should be a key pillar. Here we present a perspective on the role of nuclear power based on our collective experience in modeling nuclear power within the decarbonized U.S. power systems. We summarize the costs of current reactor development projects, and compare their stated costs with the costs that our models indicate is necessary in order to see deployment of new nuclear. We also discuss aspects of new nuclear deployment that are not included in our models but can influence decisions about whether to invest in new nuclear capacity.

decarbonization↗

Adsorbate Free Energies from DFT-Derived Translational Energy Landscapes

Adsorption free energies are fundamental to surface chemistry and catalysis. Standard models combine some assumed analytical form of the translational potential energy surface, often parameterized against density functional theory (DFT) calculations, with an analytical expression for the resultant translational densities of states (DOS), free energy, and entropy. Here we compare the performance of such models against numerical evaluations of the DOS and thermodynamic functions derived from solutions to the translational Schrodinger equation. We compare results for a translational potential energy surface (PES) derived from nudged eleastic band calculations with those obtained from adsorbate rastering across a series of monatomic (O, S, C, N, H) and polyatomic (NH x ) adsorbates on (100) Pt and Au facets. We find that analytical models as commonly parameterized have mixed performance for describing the translational PES and that the consequences for computed free energies are modest but potentially significant in microkinetic models. Here, numerical solutions are possible for modest to no additional computational cost over analytical models and thus should be considered when reliable free energy estimates are needed or translational potential energy surfaces are available.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Using Fully Coupled Hydro-Geomechanical Numerical Test Bed to Study Reservoir Stimulation with Low Hydraulic Pressure

This paper documents our effort to use a fully coupled hydro-geomechanical numerical test bed to study using low hydraulic pressure to stimulate geothermal reservoirs with existing fracture network. In this low pressure stimulation strategy, fluid pressure is lower than the minimum in situ compressive stress, so the fractures are not completely open but permeability improvement can be achieved through shear dilation. We found that in this low pressure regime, the coupling between the fluid phase and the rock solid phase becomes very simple, and the numerical model can achieve a low computational cost. Using this modified model, we study the behavior of a single fracture and a random fracture network.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The AskIT Service Desk: A Model for Improving Productivity and Reducing Costs

This was prepared for the business process improvement presentation to the Department of Energy. Los Alamos National Laboratory provides a single point of contact, the AskIT Service Desk, to address issues that impact customer productivity. At the most basic level, what customers want is for their calls to be received, to get a response from a knowledgeable analyst, and to have their issues resolved and their requests fulfilled. Providing a centralized, single point of contact service desk makes initiating technical or business support simple for the customer and improves the odds of immediately resolving the issue or correctly escalating the request to the next support level when necessary. Fulfilling customer requests through automated workflow also improves customer productivity and reduces costs. Finally, customers should be provided the option to solve their own problems through easy access to self-help resources such as frequently asked questions (FAQs) and how-to guides. To accomplish this, everyone who provides and supports services must understand how these processes and functions work together. Service providers and those who support services must “speak the same language” and share common objectives. The Associate Directorate for Business Innovation (ADBI) began the journey to improve services by selecting a known service delivery framework (Information Technology Infrastructure Library, or ITIL). From this framework, components that contribute significant business value were selected.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis Oil Stand-Alone and Co-Hydroprocessing Case Studies: Design, Cost, and Sustainability Based on Process Model Predictions

Refined liquid fuels provide conveniences for road, rail, air, and marine transportation due to high energy density, ease of transport and storage, and existing production and distribution infrastructure. Biomass conversion technologies can help diversify and increase the supply of liquid fuels towards a more robust energy future. The backbone of such development must include reliable, high-volume biomass supply chains and efficient utilization of those resources. These activities, if pursued, will lead to rural infrastructure development and new jobs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗