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Overview of ion source characterization diagnostics in INTF

INdian Test Facility (INTF) is envisaged to characterize ITER diagnostic neutral beam system and to establish the functionality of its eight inductively coupled RF plasma driver based negative hydrogen ion source and its beamline components. The beam quality mainly depends on the ion source performance and therefore, its diagnostics plays an important role for its safe and optimized operation. A number of diagnostics are planned in INTF to characterize the ion source performance. Negative ions and its cesium contents in the source will be monitored by optical emission spectroscopy (OES) and cavity ring down spectroscopy. Plasma near the extraction region will be studied using standard electrostatic probes. The beam divergence and negative ion stripping losses are planned to be measured using Doppler shift spectroscopy. During initial phase of ion beam characterization, carbon fiber composite based infrared imaging diagnostics will be used. Safe operation of the beam will be ensured by using standard thermocouples and electrical voltage-current measurement sensors. A novel concept, based on plasma density dependent plasma impedance measurement using RF electrical impedance matching parameters to characterize the RF driver plasma, will be tested in INTF and will be validated with OES data. The paper will discuss about the overview of the complete INTF diagnostics including its present status of procurement, experimentation, interface with mechanical systems in INTF, and integration with INTF data acquisition and control systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Strategy for Migration of Traditional to Hybrid Control Boards in a Nuclear Power Plant

This strategy document describes the NUREG-0711 based human factors engineering (HFE) phases and associated elements required to support design, verification and validation (V&V), and implementation of new digital control room elements in a legacy analog main control room (MCR). Information from previous planning and analysis work serves as the foundation for creating a human-machine interface (HMI) specification for distributed control systems (DCSs) to be implemented as part of nuclear power plant (NPP) modernization. This document reviews ways to take the HMSI specification and use it when migrating legacy displays or designing displays with new functionality. These displays undergo iterative usability testing during the design phase and then an integrated system validation (ISV) in the full-scope control room training simulator. Following successful demonstration of operator performance using the systems during the ISV, the new DCS is implemented at the plant, first in the training simulator and then in the MCR. This document concludes with a sample project plan, including a 15-month timeline from DCS design through implementation. Included is a discussion of how the U.S. Department of Energy’s Human System Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) can be used to support design and V&V activities. This report completes a Level 4 (M4) milestone under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A High-Speed, Real-Time Visualization and State Estimation Platform for Monitoring and Control of Electric Distribution Systems: Implementation and Field Results

Continued deployment of renewable and distributed energy resources is fundamentally changing the way that electric distribution systems are controlled and operated; more sophisticated active system control and greater situational awareness are needed. Real-time measurements and distribution system state estimation (DSSE) techniques enable more sophisticated system control and, when combined with visualization applications, greater situational awareness. This paper presents a novel demonstration of a high-speed, real-time DSSE platform and related control and visualization functionalities, implemented using existing open-source software and distribution system monitoring hardware. Live scrolling strip charts of meter data and intuitive annotated map visualizations of the entire state (obtained via DSSE) of a real-world distribution circuit are shown. The DSSE implementation is validated to demonstrate provision of accurate voltage data. This platform allows for enhanced control and situational awareness using only a minimum quantity of distribution system measurement units and modest data and software infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

IBPSA Project 2 BOPTEST: An update on the test cases available in the framework for testing advanced control strategies in buildings

Project 2 develops software infrastructure, test cases, and extensions for the Building Optimization Testing Framework (BOPTEST) to address the expanding needs of building and urban energy system controls through open international collaboration. This paper provides an overview of the new test cases available as of BOPTEST version 0.7.1. Each test case is developed using open-source Modelica libraries and Spawn of EnergyPlus, enabling the creation of high-fidelity building models that incorporate envelope dynamics, Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, and explicit control representations. Currently, eight test cases are available, with five additional cases under development. These test cases cover a wide range of climates, building types, and HVAC systems. This paper compiles and summarizes test case descriptions, cites original manuscripts that developed them for a more detailed description, and reports baseline control performance metrics. Furthermore, two example applications are presented: one illustrating different levels of control, from supervisory to low-level, and another demonstrating how Model Predictive Control (MPC) solutions must be adapted from continuous to integer to control some building actuators.

Zanetti, Ettore↗

Final Report of a CRADA Between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the General Motors Company (CRADA No. PNNL/271): “Degradation Mechanisms of Urea Selective Catalytic Reduction Technology”

Diesel engines can offer substantially higher fuel efficiency, good driving performance characteristics, and reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emission compared to stoichiometric gasoline engines. Despite the increasing public demand for higher fuel economy and reduced dependency on imported oil, however, meeting the stringent emission standards with affordable methods has been a major challenge for the wide application of these fuel-efficient engines in the US market. The selective catalytic reduction of NOx by urea (urea-SCR) is one of the most promising technologies for NOx emission control for diesel engine exhausts. To ensure successful NOx emission control in the urea-SCR technology, both a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) and a urea-SCR catalyst with high activity and durability are critical for the emission control system. Because the use of this technology for light-duty diesel vehicle applications is new, the relative lack of experience makes it especially challenging to satisfy the durability requirements. Of particular concern is being able to realistically simulate actual field aging of the catalyst systems under laboratory conditions, which is necessary both as a rapid assessment tool for verifying improved performance and certifiability of new catalyst formulations. In addition, it is imperative to develop a good understanding of deactivation mechanisms to help develop improved catalyst materials. In this CRADA program, General Motors Company and PNNL have investigated fresh, laboratory- and vehicle-aged DOC and SCR catalysts. The studies have led to a better understanding of various aging factors that impact the long-term performance of catalysts used in the urea-SCR technology, and have improved the correlation between laboratory and vehicle aging for reduced development time and cost. This Final Report briefly highlights many of the technical accomplishments and documents the productivity of the program in terms of peer-reviewed scientific publications (2 total), reports (3 total including this Final Report), and presentations (5 total).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Recovery Act: Johnston Rhode Island Combined Cycle Electric Generating Plant Fueled by Waste Landfill Gas

The primary objective of the Project was to maximize the productive use of the substantial quantities of waste landfill gas generated and collected at the Central Landfill in Johnston, Rhode Island. An extensive analysis was conducted and it was determined that utilization of the waste gas for power generation in a combustion turbine combined cycle facility was the highest and best use. The resulting project reflected a cost effective balance of the following specific sub-objectives. 1) Meet environmental and regulatory requirements, particularly the compliance obligations imposed on the landfill to collect, process and destroy landfill gas. 2) Utilize proven and reliable technology and equipment. 3) Maximize electrical efficiency. 4) Maximize electric generating capacity, consistent with the anticipated quantities of landfill gas generated and collected at the Central Landfill. 5) Maximize equipment uptime. 6) Minimize water consumption. 7) Minimize post-combustion emissions. To achieve the Project Objective the project consisted of several components. 1) The landfill gas collection system was modified and upgraded. 2) A State-of-the Art gas clean up and compression facility was constructed. 3) A high pressure pipeline was constructed to convey cleaned landfill gas from the clean-up and compression facility to the power plant. 4) A combined cycle electric generating facility was constructed consisting of combustion turbine generator sets, heat recovery steam generators and a steam turbine. 5) The voltage of the electricity produced was increased at a newly constructed transformer/substation and the electricity was delivered to the local transmission system. The Project produced a myriad of beneficial impacts. 1) The Project created 453 FTE construction and manufacturing jobs and 25 FTE permanent jobs associated with the operation and maintenance of the plant and equipment. 2) By combining state-of-the-art gas clean up systems with post combustion emissions control systems, the Project established new national standards for best available control technology (BACT). 3) The Project will annually produce 365,292 MWh's of clean energy. 4) By destroying the methane in the landfill gas, the Project will generate CO{sub 2} equivalent reductions of 164,938 tons annually. The completed facility produces 28.3 MWnet and operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Implications of the 2015 and 2016 Ukrainian electric grid cyber attacks to nuclear power plants - 113

Nuclear plants can be vulnerable from electric grid cyber attacks. In December 2015 and December 2016, cyber attackers attacked the Ukrainian electric grid and 'turned off the lights' by opening substation protective relays. The 2015 cyber attacks targeted electric distribution systems and the 2016 cyber attacks targeted electric transmission systems. In order to accomplish the attacks, the cyber attackers compromised field control system devices to inject malware and then open protective relays in substations. There are some very significant implications to nuclear plant operations from hacking the substations and switchyard breakers that serve nuclear plants. The nuclear plant operational concerns are compromising protective relays to prevent relay protection that would result in damage to large electric equipment; spurious actuation of protective relays causing loss-of-offsite power (LOOP) conditions; and the closing and then reopening of protective relays out-of-phase with the grid causing the Aurora vulnerability damaging generators, Alternating Current (AC) motors, and transformers. All of these protective relay conditions have already occurred in actual or test conditions. The common thread to these scenarios are that switchyard and substation protective relays are out-of-scope of existing nuclear cyber security regulations yet, when compromised, have demonstrated impacts to nuclear plant operations and challenged safety systems. There is one other issue about an attack originating from a protective relay. That is, it would be irrelevant whether the nuclear plant system that would be impacted would have analog or digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems because the impact is upstream of the I and C. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Actively controlled vibration welding system and method

A vibration welding system includes a controller, welding horn, an active material element, and anvil assembly. The assembly may include an anvil body connected to a back plate and support member. The element, e.g., a piezoelectric stack or shape memory alloy, is positioned with respect to the assembly. The horn vibrates in a desirable first direction to form a weld on a work piece. The element controls any vibrations in a second direction by applying calibrated response to the anvil body in the second direction. A method for controlling undesirable vibrations in the system includes positioning the element with respect to the anvil assembly, connecting the anvil body to the support member through the back plate, vibrating the horn in a desirable first direction, and transmitting an input signal to the element to control vibration in an undesirable second direction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Secure Data Transfer Guidance for Industrial Control and SCADA Systems

This document was developed to provide guidance for the implementation of secure data transfer in a complex computational infrastructure representative of the electric power and oil and natural gas enterprises and the control systems they implement. For the past 20 years the cyber security community has focused on preventative measures intended to keep systems secure by providing a hard outer shell that is difficult to penetrate. Over time, the hard exterior, soft interior focus changed to focus on defense-in-depth adding multiple layers of protection, introducing intrusion detection systems, more effective incident response and cleanup, and many other security measures. Despite much larger expenditures and more layers of defense, successful attacks have only increased in number and severity. Consequently, it is time to re-focus the conventional approach to cyber security. While it is still important to implement measures to keep intruders out, a new protection paradigm is warranted that is aimed at discovering attempted or real compromises as early as possible. Put simply, organizations should take as fact that they have been, are now, or will be compromised. These compromises may be intended to steal information for financial gain as in the theft of intellectual property or credentials that lead to the theft of financial resources, or to lie silent until instructed to cause physical or electronic damage and/or denial of services. This change in outlook has been recently confirmed by the National Security Agency [19]. The discovery of attempted and actual compromises requires an increased focus on monitoring events by manual and/or automated log monitoring, detecting unauthorized changes to a system's hardware and/or software, detecting intrusions, and/or discovering the exfiltration of sensitive information and/or attempts to send inappropriate commands to ICS/SCADA (Industrial Control System/Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) systems.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Deliver Signal Phase and Timing (SPAT) for Energy Optimization of Vehicle Cohort Via Cloud-Computing and LTE Communications

Predictive Signal Phase and Timing (SPAT) message set is one fundamental building block for vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) applications such as Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) at traffic signal controlled urban intersections. Among the two complementary communication methods namely short-range sidelink (PC5) and long-range cellular radio link (Uu), this paper documents the work with long-range link: the complete data chain includes connecting to the traffic signals via existing backhaul communication network, collecting the raw signal phase state data, predicting the signal state changes and delivering the SPAT data via a geofenced service to requests over HTTP protocols. An Application Programming Interface (API) library is developed to support various cellular data transmission reduction and latency improvement techniques. An emulation-based algorithm is applied to predict the traffic signal state changes to provide adequate prediction horizon (e.g., at minimum 2 minutes) for the cohort energy optimization. In fact, the same connectivity and SPAT delivery methodology has been applied to traffic signalized intersections nationwide in the United States upon public agency approvals for access to their firewalled traffic control network and signal control systems or directly to individual controllers. This methodology proves its effectiveness and potential for rapid growth of such SPAT deliveries at mass production scale without needing infrastructure hardware retrofit or excessive communication means. To support the energy optimization of light and heavy-duty vehicle cohorts of mixed automation and propulsion systems (EV, ICE and hybrid), the connection and SPAT deliveries at two sites were completed, including public roads in Washtenaw County, Michigan and closed track test sites at American Center for Mobility (ACM) in Ypsilanti, Michigan. However, only closed test track results at ACM will be presented in this paper. A neuroevolution based optimizer is developed and implemented to control the speed of a vehicle cohort with different propulsion systems and automation levels. Closed track tests showed significant energy savings of the cohort operation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Hardware-Based Demonstration of Temperature Control Functions for Reactor Systems

Establishing autonomy in reactor control systems has become essential for the expansion of nuclear technologies. Thermal regulation in particular remains crucial for maintaining stable operation and ensuring the integrity of fuel. To alleviate public skepticism of the safety of nuclear reactors, demonstrating control over this key factor is pivotal. Utilizing electric heat pads to simulate the heat released in a reactor core, thermocouples for temperature monitoring, and an Arduino micro programmable logic controller (PLC) for control, a hardware-based demonstration of a reactor heating system validates the efficacy of reactor control over this key parameter. To improve precision, a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) algorithm was implemented in the heating control loop to ensure meticulous control of reactor functions. In addition, the integration of this physical system with a digital simulator tool such as RELAP5-3D establishes a foundation for a comprehensive testing environment. This allows for a refinement of temperature control under various simulated reactor conditions, bringing another layer of reliability to the operation of the system. By facilitating a physical demonstration of reactor thermal management and control strategies, this project provides a foundation for expanded testing and educational outreach. Ultimately, this system advances the broader goal of demonstrating the safety and viability of autonomous reactor operations, contributing to public trust and future reactor deployment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

National Ignition Facility. Facility and Infrastructure Systems Maintenance Plan

Ensuring the reliability of the NIF, including its support systems, laser systems, target diagnostic systems, and utilities, is essential to the availability of the NIF in its support of NNSA missions. NIF is a key capability in the DOE Stockpile Stewardship Program and supports high energy physics experiments for nuclear weapons, energy, and astrophysics applications. High system reliability provides opportunities for shots and scientific discoveries with opportunities to enhance and upgrade capabilities. This Maintenance Plan (MP) identifies the policies and procedures used to perform and support asset management of the NIF Facility and Infrastructure Systems (FInS), NIF Lasers & Alignment (LASE), NIF Target Experimental Operations (TOPS), NIF Target Area Science and Engineering (TASE), and NIF&PS Control Systems (NCS). The FInS systems include the facility, HVAC, contamination control, beampath, and Line Replaceable Units (LRUs) as well as utilities which create the beampath environments, such as vacuum, argon, or clean dry air. The LASE systems are Programmatic systems which include laser diagnostics, alignment, power conditioning, pulsed power, and input laser systems. The TOPS and TASE systems are also Programmatic systems which include target and diagnostic delivery systems and positioners, many different insertable and fixed target diagnostics, and cryogenic and target gas fill systems. Finally, the NCS systems include both software and hardware for industrial and shot operation control systems. Policies governing administrative and operational practices related to maintenance of FInS, LASE, TOPS, TASE, and NCS systems are described in this plan. In addition, the plan provides processes and procedures for managing, tracking, and documenting the work. This document, the NIF Operations Management Plan, NIF-5020544 (Ref. 1), and NIF Shot Operations Plan, NIF-5018506 (Ref. 2), together satisfy the requirements of the Conduct of Operations. Duties, responsibilities, and reporting requirements of the various positions associated with FInS, LASE, and TOPS maintenance are detailed in this plan. The FInS systems include both Real Property systems with asset management requirements specified in DOE Order 430.1C (Ref. 3) and Programmatic systems. In addition, for FInS, there is a list of the System Level Maintenance Plans (SLMPs) in NIF-1007419198 (Ref. 4) which provide the system descriptions and maintenance plan and schedule. In addition, the list includes the Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) and Experience Centered Maintenance (ECM) evaluations that have been performed for applicable FInS systems as well as reliability criticality per Section 3.5. The -AM version of the NIF Maintenance Plan focuses on the reliability program for FInS, LASE, TOPS, TASE, and NCS within the context of the overall NIF Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) program and incorporates changes since the -AL version from August 2011 and has been updated to be fully consistent with the updates to Ref. 1. It also includes asset management considerations, updates to the Work Order (WO) process within the NIF Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) which is EAM infor® System Maintenance and Reliability Tracking (SMaRT) (Ref. 5), and updates to metrics and key performance indicators (KPIs).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

High-speed feedback control of an oscillating magnetic helicity injector using a graphics processing unit

A real-time control system has been developed to control the amplitude, phase, and offset of bulk plasma parameters inside an oscillating magnetic helicity injector. Control software running entirely on an Nvidia Tesla P40 graphical processing unit is able to receive digitizer inputs and send response patterns to a Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) controller with a minimum control loop period of 12.8μs. With an input digitization rate of 10 MS/s, a three-parameter proportional integral differential controller is shown to be sufficient to inform the PWM controller to drive the desired oscillating plasma waveform with a frequency of 16.6 kHz that is located near the resonance of a coupled RLC circuit. In particular, the temporal phase of the injector waveform is held within 10 degrees of the target value. Control is demonstrated over the toroidal modal structure of the imposed magnetic perturbations of the helicity injection system, allowing a new class of discharges to be studied.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A 200kW central receiver CPV system

Raygen Resources has recently completed a Central Receiver CPV (CSPV) pilot plant in Central Victoria, Australia. The system is under final commissioning and initial operation is expected in late April 2015. The pilot demonstrates a full scale CSPV repeatable unit in a form that is representative of a commercial product and provides a test bed to prove out performance and reliability of the CSPV technology. Extensive testing of the system key components: dense array module, wireless solar powered heliostat and control system has been performed in the laboratory and on sun. Results from this key component testing are presented herein.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Control and Information Systems for the National Ignition Facility

Orchestration of every National Ignition Facility (NIF) shot cycle is managed by the Integrated Computer Control System (ICCS), which uses a scalable software architecture running code on more than 1950 front-end processors, embedded controllers, and supervisory servers. The ICCS operates laser and industrial control hardware containing 66 000 control and monitor points to ensure that all of NIF’s laser beams arrive at the target within 30 ps of each other and are aligned to a pointing accuracy of less than 50 μm root-mean-square, while ensuring that a host of diagnostic instruments record data in a few billionths of a second. NIF’s automated control subsystems are built from a common object-oriented software framework that distributes the software across the computer network and achieves interoperation between different software languages and target architectures. A large suite of business and scientific software tools supports experimental planning, experimental setup, facility configuration, and post-shot analysis. Standard business services using open-source software, commercial workflow tools, and database and messaging technologies have been developed. An information technology infrastructure consisting of servers, network devices, and storage provides the foundation for these systems. Thus, this work is an overview of the control and information systems used to support a wide variety of experiments during the National Ignition Campaign.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Systems and methods for monitoring traffic on industrial control and building automation system networks

Technologies relating to monitoring communications traffic to detect potential attacks on industrial control system networks and building automation system networks are described herein. In an embodiment, a monitoring device receives a plurality of communications from a control network. The monitoring device transmits the communications to a computing device. Based on the communications, the computing device generates a listing of devices that communicated by way of the control network over a period of time, and computes a volume of traffic between each pair of devices in the listing of devices. The computing device then outputs a graphical user interface (GUI) by way of display, the GUI comprising data indicative of the computed volumes of traffic, which may be indicative of a potential attack on the control network.

Jenkins, Chris↗

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparison of ANN (MLP), ANFIS, SVM, and RF models for the online classification of heating value of burning municipal solid waste in circulating fluidized bed incinerators

Highlights: • A rapid, cost-effective, and comparative methodology was proposed to evaluate the HVs of burning MSW online. • Models ranked in descending order of performance are ANFIS, RF, SVM, MLP. • A well trained model is capable of characterizing the variation trend of HVs accurately. - Abstract: The heating values, particularly lower heating values of burning municipal solid waste are critically important parameters in operating circulating fluidized bed incineration systems. However, the heating values change widely and frequently, while there is no reliable real-time instrument to measure heating values in the process of incinerating municipal solid waste. A rapid, cost-effective, and comparative methodology was proposed to evaluate the heating values of burning MSW online based on prior knowledge, expert experience, and data-mining techniques. First, selecting the input variables of the model by analyzing the operational mechanism of circulating fluidized bed incinerators, and the corresponding heating value was classified into one of nine fuzzy expressions according to expert advice. Development of prediction models by employing four different nonlinear models was undertaken, including a multilayer perceptron neural network, a support vector machine, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, and a random forest; a series of optimization schemes were implemented simultaneously in order to improve the performance of each model. Finally, a comprehensive comparison study was carried out to evaluate the performance of the models. Results indicate that the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model outperforms the other three models, with the random forest model performing second-best, and the multilayer perceptron model performing at the worst level. A model with sufficient accuracy would contribute adequately to the control of circulating fluidized bed incinerator operation and provide reliable heating value signals for an automatic combustion control system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗