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At least 1,459 records · Page 81
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Economic Analysis of a Novel Thermal Energy Storage System Using Solid Particles for Grid Electricity Storage: Preprint

As renewable power generation becomes the mainstream new-built energy source, energy storage will become an indispensable need to complement the uncertainty of renewable resources to firm the power supply. When phasing out fossil-fuel power plants to meet the carbon neutral utility target in the midcentury around the world, large capacity of energy storage will be needed to provide reliable grid power. The integration of renewable power and storage to support future carbon-free utility has several significant and positive impacts including expanding the renewable generation into the grid, improving the peak-load response, and balancing the electricity supply and demand. Long-duration energy storage (10–100 hours duration) can potentially complement the reduction of fossil-fuel baseload generation that otherwise would risk grid security when a large portion of grid power comes from variable renewable sources. Current energy storage methods based on pumped storage hydropower or batteries have many limitations. Thermal energy storage (TES) has unique advantages in scale and siting flexibility to provide grid-scale storage capacity. A particle-based TES system has promising cost and performance for the future growing energy storage needs. This paper introduces the system and components required for the particle TES to be technically and economically competitive. A technoeconomic analysis based on preliminary component designs and performance shows that the particle TES integrated with an efficient air-Brayton combined cycle power system can provide power for several days by low-cost, high-performance storage cycles. It addresses grid storage needs by enabling large-scale grid integration of intermittent renewables like wind and solar, thereby increasing their grid value. The design specifications and cost estimations of major components in a commercial scale system are presented in this paper. The cost model provides insights for further development and cost comparison with competing technologies.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Life Cycle Assessment for Closed-Loop Pumped Hydropower Energy Storage in the United States

The federal government has initiated an aggressive set of policies to achieve a net-zero carbon emission goal for the electricity sector by 2050. As a result, rapid growth in deployment of renewable energy technologies is expected. Most commercially mature technologies are temporally variable and do not provide grid inertia, while renewable technologies with high projected deployment have intermittent generation methods. Energy storage technologies are needed to both dispatch power on-demand and help provide the needed grid inertia. Pumped storage hydro (PSH) is a well-established technology that has gained renewed interest in recent years offering energy-balancing, grid stability, control of electrical network frequency, and large-scale storage capacity. For widespread adoption of PSH, more information is needed regarding its current life cycle environmental impacts. The objective of this study is to perform a full life cycle assessment (LCA) of new closed-loop PSH in the U.S. The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh of electrical power delivered to the grid and the base case project lifetime is 80 years. The life cycle inventory for this project accounts for all material and energy flows associated with the green-field construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of a closed-loop PSH plant in the U.S. Collected data represents a range of potential PSH specifications and geographic locations coming from all prospective closed-loop PSH installations in the U.S. with data available. In addition, existing PSH installations are used to provide assumptions for inventory inputs. Results presented will include the global warming potential (GWP IPCC 100a) and Energy Return on Investment (EROI) from our base case (average PSH installation) as well as from scenario analyses and model sensitivity. These results will be compared to the impacts from existing PSH sites and alternate storage technologies. Methods align with the assumptions and guidelines put in place by previous PSH LCAs to ensure an accurate comparison with the results from this report.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts for Predictive Voltage Control

This paper explores predictive cooperative voltage control in distribution systems with highly variable sources such as photovoltaics (PV). The goal is to maintain the voltage profile within the limits despite the fluctuations due to sudden changes in solar power generation. The predictive voltage control method relies on probabilistic solar power and load forecasts to select the optimum Voltage Regulator (VR) taps appropriately. VR taps are selected to minimize the risk of voltage violation. A modified version of the IEEE 123 system is used as the case study. A 100% penetration of solar power is assumed for the distribution system with profiles for solar generation and loads added to the system. Three different probabilistic forecast models (Quantile Regression (QR), Gaussian distribution and volatility forecasting using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)) are explored in this study. The results for the VR taps and Voltage Deviation Index (VDI) are compared to find the most effective forecast model.

Panamtash, Hossein↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to discover mineral trapping signatures due to CO 2 injection

Mineral trapping is pursued as a geological CO 2 sequestration (GCS) mechanism because it permanently stores CO 2 in solid phases or minerals. However, CO 2 mineral-trapping mechanisms are poorly understood due to (1) lack of sufficient field and laboratory data characterizing these complex processes, and (2) challenges to develop site-specific reactive-transport models coupling fluid flow and geochemical reactions occurring at various temporal (from milliseconds to years) and spatial (from pore (millimeters) to field (kilometers)) scales. Reactive transport with additional complexities such as heterogeneity can make the simulation outputs even more difficult to interpret because of complex nonlinearity and multi-scale interdependencies. Furthermore, the values of model outputs such as concentrations can vary by several orders of magnitude, making it harder to correlate and characterize the impact of the variables via traditional data interpretation techniques such as exploratory data analyses. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown promise in feature discovery and in highlighting hidden mechanisms that cannot be obtained by existing data-analytics and statistical methods. In this study, we applied an unsupervised ML approach, non-negative matrix factorization with custom -means clustering (NMF) to the data generated by reactive-transport simulations of GCS. The reactive-transport data consisted of 19 attributes, including four physio-chemical variables (pH, porosity, aqueous CO 2 , and sequestered CO 2 ), six chemical species (K + , Na + , HCO, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Fe 2+ ), and four carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite, siderite, and ankerite), a feldspar mineral (albite), and four clay minerals (illite, clinochlore, kaolinite, and smectite) over a period of 200 years of simulation time. Furthermore, the simulation data used was for Morrow B sandstone at the Farnsworth hydrocarbon unit in Texas. Data are sampled at two locations within the model domain: (1) at the injection well and (2) 200 m west of the injection well. The injection was performed for a period of 10 years. Using NMF, we estimated the temporal interdependencies among the 19 attributes over a span of 200 years. We found that NMF was able to identify four reaction stages and their dominant attributes; these cannot be directly discerned through traditional visualization (e.g., line plots, Pareto analysis, Glyph-based visualization methods) or exploratory data analysis tools of the simulation data. The four stages were: reactions in the injection phase followed by short-, mid-, and long-term reactions. The NMF analysis also revealed that 10 among the 19 attributes are dominant. These dominant attributes for mineral trapping include calcite, dolomite at injection well, siderite at 200 m away from the injection well, clinochlore, kaolinite, Na + , K + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , pH, and aqeuous CO 2 . Finally, at late times (65–200 years), our results showed that calcite plays a major role in mineral trapping with insignificant contribution from siderite, ankerite, and clay minerals. These findings make the proposed unsupervised ML-model attractive for reactive-transport sensing towards real-time GCS monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting nutrition and environmental factors associated with female reproductive disorders using a knowledge graph and random forests

Female reproductive disorders (FRDs) are common health conditions that may present with significant symptoms. Diet and environment are potential areas for FRD interventions. We utilized a knowledge graph (KG) method to predict factors associated with common FRDs (for example, endometriosis, ovarian cyst, and uterine fibroids). We harmonized survey data from the Personalized Environment and Genes Study (PEGS) on internal and external environmental exposures and health conditions with biomedical ontology content. We merged the harmonized data and ontologies with supplemental nutrient and agricultural chemical data to create a KG. We analyzed the KG by embedding edges and applying a random forest for edge prediction to identify variables potentially associated with FRDs. We also conducted logistic regression analysis for comparison. Across 9765 PEGS respondents, the KG analysis resulted in 8535 significant or suggestive predicted links between FRDs and chemicals, phenotypes, and diseases. Amongst these links, 32 were exact matches when compared with the logistic regression results, including comorbidities, medications, foods, and occupational exposures. Mechanistic underpinnings of predicted links documented in the literature may support some of our findings. Our KG methods are useful for predicting possible associations in large, survey-based datasets with added information on directionality and magnitude of effect from logistic regression. These results should not be construed as causal but can support hypothesis generation. This investigation enabled the generation of hypotheses on a variety of potential links between FRDs and exposures. Future investigations should prospectively evaluate the variables hypothesized to impact FRDs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Parallel scheduling of recursively defined arrays

A new method of automatic generation of concurrent programs which constructs arrays defined by sets of recursive equations is described. It is assumed that the time of computation of an array element is a linear combination of its indices, and integer programming is used to seek a succession of hyperplanes along which array elements can be computed concurrently. The method can be used to schedule equations involving variable length dependency vectors and mutually recursive arrays. Portions of the work reported here have been implemented in the PS automatic program generation system.

Myers, T. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

From disorganized data to emergent dynamic models: Questionnaires to partial differential equations

Starting with sets of disorganized observations of spatially varying and temporally evolving systems, obtained at different (also disorganized) sets of parameters, we demonstrate the data-driven derivation of parameter dependent, evolutionary partial differential equation (PDE) models capable of generating the data. This tensor type of data is reminiscent of shuffled (multidimensional) puzzle tiles. The independent variables for the evolution equations (their “space” and “time”) as well as their effective parameters are all emergent , i.e. determined in a data-driven way from our disorganized observations of behavior in them. We use a diffusion map based questionnaire approach to build a smooth parametrization of our emergent space/time/parameter space for the data. This approach iteratively processes the data by successively observing them on the “space,” the “time” and the “parameter” axes of a tensor. Once the data become organized, we use machine learning (here, neural networks) to approximate the operators governing the evolution equations in this emergent space. Our illustrative examples are based (i) on a simple advection–diffusion model; (ii) on a previously developed vertex-plus-signaling model of Drosophila embryonic development; and (iii) on two complex dynamic network models (one neuronal and one coupled oscillator model) for which no obvious smooth embedding geometry is known a priori. This allows us to discuss features of the process like symmetry breaking, translational invariance, and autonomousness of the emergent PDE model, as well as its interpretability.

generative models↗
NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Assessment of Variable Speed Power Turbine Technology on Civil Tiltrotor Size and Performance

A Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR) conceptual design was developed as part of the NASA Heavy Lift Rotorcraft Systems Investigation in order to establish a consistent basis for evaluating the benefits of advanced technology for large tiltrotors. The concept has since evolved into the second-generation LCTR2, designed to carry 90 passengers for 1,000 nm at 300 knots, with vertical takeoff and landing capability. This paper performs a preliminary assessment of variable-speed power turbine technology on LCTR2 sizing, while maintaining the same, advanced technology engine core. Six concepts were studied; an advanced, single-speed engine with a conventional power turbine layout (Advanced Conventional Engine, or ACE) using a multi-speed (shifting) gearbox. There were five variable-speed power turbine (VSPT) engine concepts, comprising a matrix of either three or four turbine stages, and fixed or variable guide vanes; plus a minimum weight, twostage, fixed-geometry VSPT. The ACE is the lightest engine, but requires a multi-speed (shifting) gearbox to maximize its fuel efficiency, whereas the VSPT concepts use a lighter, fixed-ratio gearbox. The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) design code was used to study the trades between rotor and engine efficiency and weight. Rotor performance was determined by Comprehensive Analytical Model of Rotorcraft Aerodynamics and Dynamics (CAMRAD II), and engine performance was estimated with the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). Design trades for the ACE vs. VSPT are presented in terms of vehicle gross and empty weight, propulsion system weight and mission fuel burn for the civil mission. Because of its strong effect on gearbox weight and on both rotor and engine efficiency, rotor speed was chosen as the reference design variable for comparing design trades. Major study assumptions are presented and discussed. Impressive engine power-to-weight and fuel efficiency reduced vehicle sensitivity to propulsion system choice. The 10% weight penalty for multi-speed gearbox was more significant than most engine technology weight penalties to the vehicle design because drive system weight is more than two times engine weight. Based on study assumptions, fixed-geometry VSPT concept options performed better than their variable-geometry counterparts. Optimum design gross weights varied 1% or less and empty weights less than 2% among the concepts studied, while optimum fuel burns varied up to 5%. The outcome for some optimum configurations was so unexpected as to recommend a deeper look at the underlying technology assumptions.

Snyder, Christopher A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear Energy in Long-Term System Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Long-term energy system models–including electric sector capacity expansion models–are widely used tools for informing planning, technology assessment, and policy analysis. Recent decarbonization goals and rapid technological change have increased the need to appropriately represent economic characteristics and technical details of energy system resources, including variable renewable energy, energy storage technologies, carbon-capture-equipped capacity, and nuclear energy. Nuclear power represents about 20% of electricity generation and 50% of carbon-free electricity in the United States as of 2021. However, there are many perspectives on the role of existing and new nuclear in the future U.S. energy system, which is reflected in the broad range of potential contributions reported in the literature. This project aims to understand how issues central to nuclear energy are represented in long-term energy models. Building on earlier collaborations that focused on variable renewable energy and energy storage, this project convenes four modeling teams that use national-scale long-term energy system models from the Electric Power Research Institute, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to share methods and data, update models, run coordinated scenarios, and identify research needs. Improving tools can provide more insightful analyses and ensure that methods are more transparent.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power System Recovery Coordinated with (Non-)Black-Start Generators

Power restoration is an urgent task after a black-out, and recovery efficiency is critical when quantifying system resilience. Multiple elements should be considered to restore the power system quickly and safely. This paper proposes a recovery model to solve a direct-current optimal power flow (DCOPF) based on mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Since most of the generators cannot start independently, the interaction between black-start (BS) and non-black-start (NBS) generators must be modeled appropriately. The energization status of the NBS is coordinated with the recovery status of transmission lines, and both of them are modeled as binary variables. Also, only after an NBS unit receives the cranking power through connected transmission lines, will it be allowed to participate in the following system dispatch. The amount of cranking power is estimated as a fixed proportion to the maximum generation capacity. The proposed model is validated on several test systems, as well as a 1393-bus representation system of the Puerto Rican electric power grid. Test results demonstrate how the recovery of NBS units and damaged transmission lines can be optimized, resulting in an efficient and well-coordinated recovery procedure.

Zhao, Meng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 4: "Waste"-to-Energy for Decarbonization - Transforming Nut Shells Into Carbon-Negative Electricity

This chapter presents a study demonstrating waste pistachio nut shells as a renewable feedstock for climate-friendly electricity generation via industrial gasification technology. The study includes biomass feedstock characterization (i.e., pistachio waste critical material attributes), process variability (i.e., bulk material handling), and overall operational reliability and conversion performance through extended testing. Additionally, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were performed to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impact of the technology to transform agricultural waste to biopower. For processing pistachio waste material, among critical material attributes, fines content in the biomass (<1/4") had the largest potential to reduce the operating time of the gasifiers due to plugging. Pelletizing fines and co-feeding them with the mixed pistachio waste increased the average feed density, feed rate, and biochar production. Compared to pine wood chips, mixed pistachio waste yielded higher biochar quantity but slightly reduced quality. In general, a systematic Quality by Design methodology is the preferred approach for designing preprocessing and material conveyance systems, where a downstream technology (end user) for the produced intermediate is specified at the outset. TEA results show that the biochar production rate and selling price had an overwhelming impact on the modeled Minimum Electricity Selling Price (MESP), which ranged from 35.5 to 39.9 cents/kWh for the cases studied (16 h/day operational basis). Moreover, LCA results show that the valorization of pistachio shells for biopower generation is a "carbon negative" process that can help decarbonize the U.S. electricity grid. The specific carbon intensity was -0.29 to -0.71 kg CO2e/kWh, compared to 0.45 kg CO2e/kWh for the average U.S. electricity mix. Biochar production from pistachio waste as a potential means for carbon sequestration was a significant driver for the LCA. The highly stable biochar permanently sequesters a considerable fraction of biochar carbon in the ground, more than enough to offset the life cycle emissions, and can be a complementary climate change mitigation strategy.

bio-char↗
NASA NTRS2008

Certifying Auto-Generated Flight Code

Model-based design and automated code generation are being used increasingly at NASA. Many NASA projects now use MathWorks Simulink and Real-Time Workshop for at least some of their modeling and code development. However, there are substantial obstacles to more widespread adoption of code generators in safety-critical domains. Since code generators are typically not qualified, there is no guarantee that their output is correct, and consequently the generated code still needs to be fully tested and certified. Moreover, the regeneration of code can require complete recertification, which offsets many of the advantages of using a generator. Indeed, manual review of autocode can be more challenging than for hand-written code. Since the direct V&V of code generators is too laborious and complicated due to their complex (and often proprietary) nature, we have developed a generator plug-in to support the certification of the auto-generated code. Specifically, the AutoCert tool supports certification by formally verifying that the generated code is free of different safety violations, by constructing an independently verifiable certificate, and by explaining its analysis in a textual form suitable for code reviews. The generated documentation also contains substantial tracing information, allowing users to trace between model, code, documentation, and V&V artifacts. This enables missions to obtain assurance about the safety and reliability of the code without excessive manual V&V effort and, as a consequence, eases the acceptance of code generators in safety-critical contexts. The generation of explicit certificates and textual reports is particularly well-suited to supporting independent V&V. The primary contribution of this approach is the combination of human-friendly documentation with formal analysis. The key technical idea is to exploit the idiomatic nature of auto-generated code in order to automatically infer logical annotations. The annotation inference algorithm itself is generic, and parametrized with respect to a library of coding patterns that depend on the safety policies and the code generator. The patterns characterize the notions of definitions and uses that are specific to the given safety property. For example, for initialization safety, definitions correspond to variable initializations while uses are statements which read a variable, whereas for array bounds safety, definitions are the array declarations, while uses are statements which access an array variable. The inferred annotations are thus highly dependent on the actual program and the properties being proven. The annotations, themselves, need not be trusted, but are crucial to obtain the automatic formal verification of the safety properties without requiring access to the internals of the code generator. The approach has been applied to both in-house and commercial code generators, but is independent of the particular generator used. It is currently being adapted to flight code generated using MathWorks Real-Time Workshop, an automatic code generator that translates from Simulink/Stateflow models into embedded C code.

Denney, Ewen↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using Space Weather Variability in Evaluating the Radiation Environment Design Specifications for NASA's Constellation Program

NASA's Constellation program, initiated to fulfill the Vision for Space Exploration, will create a new generation of vehicles for servicing low Earth orbit, the Moon, and beyond. Space radiation specifications for space system hardware are necessarily conservative to assure system robustness for a wide range of space environments. Spectral models of solar particle events and trapped radiation belt environments are used to develop the design requirements for estimating total ionizing radiation dose, displacement damage, and single event effects for Constellation hardware. We first describe the rationale using the spectra chosen to establish the total dose and single event design environmental specifications for Constellation systems. We then compare variability of the space environment to the spectral design models to evaluate their applicability as conservative design environments and potential vulnerabilities to extreme space weather events

Coffey, Victoria N.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning macroscopic internal variables and history dependence from microscopic models

This paper concerns the study of history dependent phenomena in heterogeneous materials in a two-scale setting where the material is specified at a fine microscopic scale of heterogeneities that is much smaller than the coarse macroscopic scale of application. Here, we specifically study a polycrystalline medium where each grain is governed by crystal plasticity while the solid is subjected to macroscopic dynamic loads. The theory of homogenization allows us to solve the macroscale problem directly with a constitutive relation that is defined implicitly by the solution of the microscale problem. However, the homogenization leads to a highly complex history dependence at the macroscale, one that can be quite different from that at the microscale. In this paper, we examine the use of machine-learning, and especially deep neural networks, to harness data generated by repeatedly solving the finer scale model to: (i) gain insights into the history dependence and the macroscopic internal variables that govern the overall response; and (ii) to create a computationally efficient surrogate of its solution operator, that can directly be used at the coarser scale with no further modeling. We do so by introducing a recurrent neural operator (RNO), and show that: (i) the architecture and the learned internal variables can provide insight into the physics of the macroscopic problem; and (ii) that the RNO can provide multiscale, specifically FE 2 , accuracy at a cost comparable to a conventional empirical constitutive relation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated solution techniques for security constrained unit commitment problem

Apparatus and methods are disclosed for solving Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) problems, such as Security Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) problems used by power grid authorities to perform day-ahead market clearing. In certain examples, a plurality of threads of a software tool implementing a concurrent optimizer can be executed concurrently and sequentially to generate new solutions to a SCUC problem for an upcoming planning horizon. Data can be shared among the concurrently executing threads, such as intermediate/incumbent solutions and hints regarding the fixing of variables and constraints to reduce the size of the SCUC problem. In some examples, the threads are seeded with historical solutions from prior planning horizons. The software tool can select a best solution from the solutions generated by the threads, and determine dispatch instructions for a device coupled to the power grid for the upcoming planning horizon based at least in part on the selected solution.

Pan, Feng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Thermally Integrated Solid Oxide Fuel Cell and Compressed Air Energy Storage Hybrid System

Natural-gas-fueled solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems have the potential for high-efficiency conversion of carbon to power due to the underlying electrochemical conversion process while readily facilitating carbon capture through the separation of the fuel and oxidant sources. Compressed air energy storage (CAES) technology can potentially store significant quantities of energy for later use with a high round-trip efficiency and lower cost when compared with state-of-the-art battery technology. The base load generation capability of SOFC can be coupled with CAES technology to provide a potentially flexible, low-carbon solution to meet the fluctuating electricity demands imposed by the increasing share of intermittent variable renewable energy (VRE) production. SOFC and CAES can be hybridized through thermal integration to maximize power output during periods of high electrical demand and then store power when either demand is low or renewable generation reduces power prices. The techno-economics of a low-carbon hybrid SOFC and CAES system was developed and investigated in the present study. The proposed hybrid system was found to be cost-competitive with other power-generating base-load facilities when power availability was considered. The hybrid system shows increased resilience to changes in a high VRE grid market scenario.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2011

Variability and Trends in Sea Ice Extent and Ice Production in the Ross Sea

Salt release during sea ice formation in the Ross Sea coastal regions is regarded as a primary forcing for the regional generation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Passive microwave data from November 1978 through 2008 are used to examine the detailed seasonal and interannual characteristics of the sea ice cover of the Ross Sea and the adjacent Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. For this period the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea shows the greatest increase of all the Antarctic seas. Variability in the ice cover in these regions is linked to changes in the Southern Annular Mode and secondarily to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate of increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 sq km/yr. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 cu km/yr, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. The increase in brine rejection in the Ross Shelf Polynya associated with the estimated increase with the ice production, however, is not consistent with the reported Ross Sea salinity decrease. The locally generated sea ice enhancement of Ross Sea salinity may be offset by an increase of relatively low salinity of the water advected into the region from the Amundsen Sea, a consequence of increased precipitation and regional glacial ice melt.

Comiso, Josefino↗