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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Time-Resolved Optical Measurements of Fuel-Air Mixedness in Windowless High Speed Research Combustors

Fuel distribution measurements in gas turbine combustors are needed from both pollution and fuel-efficiency standpoints. In addition to providing valuable data for performance testing and engine development, measurements of fuel distributions uniquely complement predictive numerical simulations. Although equally important as spatial distribution, the temporal distribution of the fuel is an often overlooked aspect of combustor design and development. This is due partly to the difficulties in applying time-resolved diagnostic techniques to the high-pressure, high-temperature environments inside gas turbine engines. Time-resolved measurements of the fuel-to-air ratio (F/A) can give researchers critical insights into combustor dynamics and acoustics. Beginning in early 1998, a windowless technique that uses fiber-optic, line-of-sight, infrared laser light absorption to measure the time-resolved fluctuations of the F/A (refs. 1 and 2) will be used within the premixer section of a lean-premixed, prevaporized (LPP) combustor in NASA Lewis Research Center's CE-5 facility. The fiber-optic F/A sensor will permit optical access while eliminating the need for film-cooled windows, which perturb the flow. More importantly, the real-time data from the fiber-optic F/A sensor will provide unique information for the active feedback control of combustor dynamics. This will be a prototype for an airborne sensor control system.

Nguyen, Quang-Viet↗

Overview of Global/Regional Models Used to Evaluate Tropospheric Ozone in North America

Ozone (O3) is an important greenhouse gas, toxic pollutant, and plays a major role in atmospheric chemistry. Tropospheric O3 which resides in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is highly reactive and has a lifetime on the order of days, however, O3 in the free troposphere and stratosphere has a lifetime on the order of weeks or months. Modeling O3 mixing ratios at and above the surface is difficult due to the multiple formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large spatio-temporal variability in O3 mixing ratios. This talk will summarize in detail the global/regional models that are commonly used to simulate/predict O3 mixing ratios in the United States. The major models which will be focused on are the: 1) Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), 2) Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), 3) Goddard Earth Observing System with Chemistry (GEOS-Chem), 4) Real Time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS), 5) Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART), and 7) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM3 model. I will discuss the major modeling components which impact O3 mixing ratio calculations in each model and the similarities/differences between these models. This presentation is vital to the 2nd Annual Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) Conference as it will provide an overview of tools, which can be used in conjunction with TOLNet data, to evaluate the complex chemistry and transport pathways controlling tropospheric O3 mixing ratios.

Mixing Ratios↗

Risk Factors and Trends for HPV-Associated Subsequent Malignant Neoplasms among Adolescent and Young Adult Cancer Survivors

Subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMN; new cancers that arise after an original diagnosis) contribute to premature mortality among adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors. Because of the high population prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, we identify demographic and clinical risk factors for HPV-associated SMNs (HPV-SMN) among AYA cancer survivors in the SEER-9 registries diagnosed from 1976 to 2015. Outcomes included any HPV-SMN, oropharyngeal-SMN, and cervical-SMN. Follow-up started 2 months after their original diagnosis. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) compared risk between AYA survivors and general population. Age-period-cohort (APC) models examined trends over time. Fine and Gray's models identified therapy effects controlling for cancer and demographic confounders. Of 374,408 survivors, 1,369 had an HPV-SMN, occurring on average 5 years after first cancer. Compared with the general population, AYA survivors had 70% increased risk for any HPV-SMN [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.61–1.79] and 117% for oropharyngeal-SMN (95% CI, 2.00–2.35); cervical-SMN risk was generally lower in survivors (SIR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76–0.95), but Hispanic AYA survivors had a 8.4 significant increase in cervical-SMN (SIR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.01–2.06). AYAs first diagnosed with Kaposi sarcoma, leukemia, Hodgkin, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma had increased HPV-SMN risks compared with the general population. Oropharyngeal-SMN incidence declined over time in APC models. Chemotherapy and radiation were associated with any HPV-SMN among survivors with first HPV-related cancers, but not associated among survivors whose first cancers were not HPV-related. HPV-SMN in AYA survivors are driven by oropharyngeal cancers despite temporal declines in oropharyngeal-SMN. Hispanic survivors are at risk for cervical-SMN relative to the general population. Encouraging HPV vaccination and cervical and oral cancer screenings may reduce HPV-SMN burden among AYA survivors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Verification of diesel spray ignition phenomenon in dual-fuel diesel-piloted premixed natural gas engine

Dual-fuel (DF) engines, in which premixed natural gas and air in an open-type combustion chamber is ignited by diesel-fuel pilot sprays, have been more popular for marine use than pre-chamber spark ignition (PCSI) engines because of their superior durability. However, control of ignition and combustion in DF engines is more difficult than in PCSI engines. In this context, here we focus on the ignition stability of n-heptane pilot-fuel jets injected into a compressed premixed charge of natural gas and air at low-load conditions. To aid understanding of the experimental data, chemical-kinetics simulations were carried out in a simplified engine-environment that provided insight into the chemical effects of methane (CH4) on pilot-fuel ignition. The simulations reveal that CH4 has an effect on both stages of n-heptane autoignition: the small, first-stage, cool-flame-type, low-temperature ignition (LTI) and the larger, second-stage, high-temperature ignition (HTI). As the ratio of pilot-fuel to CH4 entrained into the spray decreases, the initial oxidization of CH4 consumes the OH radicals produced by pilot-fuel decomposition during LTI, thereby inhibiting its progression to HTI. Using imaging diagnostics, the spatial and temporal progression of LTI and HTI in DF combustion are measured in a heavy-duty optical engine, and the imaging data are analyzed to understand the cause of severe fluctuations in ignition timing and combustion completeness at low-load conditions. Images of cool-flame and hydroxyl radical (OH*) chemiluminescence serve as indicators of LTI and HTI, respectively. The cycle-to-cycle and spatial variation in ignition extracted from the imaging data are used as key metrics of comparison. The imaging data indicate that the local concentration of the pilot-fuel and the richness of the surrounding natural-gas air mixture are important for LTI and HTI, but in different ways. In particular, higher injection pressures and shorter injection durations increase the mixing rate, leading to lower concentrations of pilot-fuel more quickly, which can inhibit HTI even as LTI remains relatively robust. Decreasing the injection pressure from 80 MPa to 40 MPa and increasing the injection duration from 500 µs to 760 µs maintained constant pilot-fuel mass, while promoting robust transition from LTI to HTI by effectively slowing the mixing rate. This allows enough residence time for the OH radicals, produced by the two-stage ignition chemistry of the pilot-fuel, to accelerate the transition from LTI to HTI before being consumed by CH4 oxidation. Thus from a practical perspective, for a premixed natural gas fuel–air equivalence-ratio, it is possible to improve the “stability” of the combustion process by solely manipulating the pilot-fuel injection parameters while maintaining constant mass of injected pilot-fuel. This allows for tailoring mixing trajectories to offset changes in fuel ignition chemistry, so as to promote a robust transition from LTI to HTI by changing the balance between the local concentration of the pilot-fuel and richness of the premixed natural gas and air. This could prove to be a valuable tool for combustion design to improve fuel efficiency or reduce noise or perhaps even reduce heat-transfer losses by locating early combustion away from in-cylinder walls.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) Campaign

The science of mountainous hydrology spans the atmosphere through the bedrock and inherently crosses physical and disciplinary boundaries: land-atmosphere interactions in complex terrain enhance clouds and precipitation, while watersheds retain and release water over a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Limited observations in complex terrain challenge efforts to improve predictive models of the hydrology in the face of rapid changes. The Upper Colorado River exemplifies these challenges, especially with ongoing mismatches between precipitation, snowpack, and discharge. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has deployed an observatory to the East River Watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado between September 2021 and June 2023 to measure the main atmospheric drivers of water resources, including precipitation, clouds, winds, aerosols, radiation, temperature and humidity. This effort, called the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL), is also working in tandem with DOE-sponsored surface and subsurface hydrologists and other federal, state, and local partners. SAIL data can be benchmarks for model development by producing a wide range of observational information on precipitation and its associated processes, including those processes that impact snowpack sublimation and redistribution, aerosol direct radiative effects in the atmosphere and in the snowpack, aerosol impacts on clouds and precipitation, and processes controlling surface fluxes of energy and mass. Preliminary data from SAIL’s first year showcase the rich information content in SAIL’s many data-streams and support testing hypotheses that will ultimately improve scientific understanding and predictability of Upper Colorado River hydrology in 2023 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Program Instrumentation and Trace Analysis

Several attempts have been made recently to apply techniques such as model checking and theorem proving to the analysis of programs. This shall be seen as a current trend to analyze real software systems instead of just their designs. This includes our own effort to develop a model checker for Java, the Java PathFinder 1, one of the very first of its kind in 1998. However, model checking cannot handle very large programs without some kind of abstraction of the program. This paper describes a complementary scalable technique to handle such large programs. Our interest is turned on the observation part of the equation: How much information can be extracted about a program from observing a single execution trace? It is our intention to develop a technology that can be applied automatically and to large full-size applications, with minimal modification to the code. We present a tool, Java PathExplorer (JPaX), for exploring execution traces of Java programs. The tool prioritizes scalability for completeness, and is directed towards detecting errors in programs, not to prove correctness. One core element in JPaX is an instrumentation package that allows to instrument Java byte code files to log various events when executed. The instrumentation is driven by a user provided script that specifies what information to log. Examples of instructions that such a script can contain are: 'report name and arguments of all called methods defined in class C, together with a timestamp'; 'report all updates to all variables'; and 'report all acquisitions and releases of locks'. In more complex instructions one can specify that certain expressions should be evaluated and even that certain code should be executed under various conditions. The instrumentation package can hence be seen as implementing Aspect Oriented Programming for Java in the sense that one can add functionality to a Java program without explicitly changing the code of the original program, but one rather writes an aspect and compiles it into the original program using the instrumentation. Another core element of JPaX is an observation package that supports the analysis of the generated event stream. Two kinds of analysis are currently supported. In temporal analysis the execution trace is evaluated against formulae written in temporal logic. We have implemented a temporal logic evaluator on finite traces using the Maude rewriting system from SRI International, USA. Temporal logic is defined in Maude by giving its syntax as a signature and its semantics as rewrite equations. The resulting semantics is extremely efficient and can handle event streams of hundreds of millions events in few minutes. Furthermore, the implementation is very succinct. The second form of even stream analysis supported is error pattern analysis where an execution trace is analyzed using various error detection algorithms that can identify error-prone programming practices that may potentially lead to errors in some different executions. Two such algorithms focusing on concurrency errors have been implemented in JPaX, one for deadlocks and the other for data races. It is important to note, that a deadlock or data race potential does not need to occur in order for its potential to be detected with these algorithms. This is what makes them very scalable in practice. The data race algorithm implemented is the Eraser algorithm from Compaq, however adopted to Java. The tool is currently being applied to a code base for controlling a spacecraft by the developers of that software in order to evaluate its applicability.

Havelund, Klaus↗

Diurnal Variation of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height Observed from GNSS Radio Occultation and Radiosonde Soundings over the Southern Great Plains

>The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is a key physical parameter of the PBL affected by numerous physical processes within the boundary layer. Specifically, the PBLH over land exhibits large spatial and temporal variation across different geographical regions. In this study, the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) radio occultation (RO) profiles and high-resolution radiosonde profiles from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed to estimate the diurnal cycle of the PBLH over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in the United States. Large variations in PBLH derived from radiosonde temperature, moisture, and refractivity are observed on seasonal scales. COSMIC RO is capable of observing diurnal and seasonal variations in the terrestrial PBLH over the SGP region. Annual mean diurnal amplitude of approximately 250 m in the terrestrial PBLH was observed, with maxima occurring at around 1500 local solar time (LST) in both the collocated radiosondes and COSMIC RO profiles. Seasonal changes in the PBLH diurnal cycles ranging from approximately 100 to 400 m were also observed. Such PBL diurnal and seasonal changes can be further incorporated into PBL parameterizations to help improve weather and climate model prediction. Significance Statement. The atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL) and its height (PBLH) control many atmospheric processes that affect our everyday lives. Observations of the PBL are usually limited to radiosondes at limited time intervals. GNSS radio occultation (RO) provide high-vertical-resolution atmospheric observations that are ideal for PBL study. This study demonstrates that the GNSS RO is capable of capturing the diurnal and seasonal variations of the PBLH over the southern Great Plains (SGP) well as compared to the collocated radiosonde observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rhythmic Mechanisms Governing CAM Photosynthesis in Kalanchoe fedtschenkoi : High-Resolution Temporal Transcriptomics

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) is a specialized photosynthetic pathway that enhances water-use efficiency by temporally separating nocturnal CO 2 uptake from daytime decarboxylation and carbon fixation. To uncover the regulatory mechanisms coordinating these temporal dynamics, we generated high-resolution, 48 h time-course transcriptomes for the CAM model Kalanchoe fedtschenkoi under both 12 h/12 h light/dark (LD) cycles and continuous light (LL). A rhythmicity analysis revealed that diel light cues are the dominant driver of transcript oscillations: 16,810 genes (54.3% of annotated genes) exhibited rhythmic expression only under LD, whereas just 399 genes (1.3%) remained rhythmic under LL. A smaller set of 3009 genes (9.7%) oscillated in both conditions, indicating that the intrinsic circadian clock sustains rhythmicity for a limited subset of the transcriptome. A gene co-expression network analysis revealed extensive integration between circadian clock components, core CAM pathway enzymes, and stomatal regulators, defining regulatory modules that coordinate metabolic and physiological timing. Notably, key hub genes associated with post-translational and post-transcriptional regulation, including the E3 ubiquitin ligase HUB2 and several pentatricopeptide repeat (PPR) proteins, act as central nodes in CAM-associated networks. This discovery implicates epigenetic and organellar regulation as previously unrecognized critical tiers of control in CAM. Together, our results support a regulatory model in which CAM rhythmicity is governed by both external light/dark cues and the endogenous circadian clock through multi-level control spanning transcriptional and protein-level regulation. To support community exploration, we also provide an interactive eFP (electronic Fluorescent Pictograph) browser for visualizing time-resolved gene expression profiles.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Monitoring Interannual Variation in Global Crop Yield Using Long-Term AVHRR and MODIS Observations

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been extensively applied for crop yield prediction because of their daily temporal resolution and a global coverage. This study investigated global crop yield using daily two band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2013) observations at a spatial resolution of 0.05deg (approx.5 km). Specifically, EVI2 temporal trajectory of crop growth was simulated using a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM) for individual pixels, which was used to detect crop phenological metrics. The derived crop phenology was then applied to calculate crop greenness defined as EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration during annual crop growing seasons, which was further aggregated for croplands in each country, respectively. The interannual variations in EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration were combined to correlate to the variation in cereal yield from 1982-2012 for individual countries using a stepwise regression model, respectively. The results show that the confidence level of the established regression models was higher than 90% (P value < 0.1) in most countries in the northern hemisphere although it was relatively poor in the southern hemisphere (mainly in Africa). The error in the yield predication was relatively smaller in America, Europe and East Asia than that in Africa. In the 10 countries with largest cereal production across the world, the prediction error was less than 9% during past three decades. This suggests that crop phenology-controlled greenness from coarse resolution satellite data has the capability of predicting national crop yield across the world, which could provide timely and reliable crop information for global agricultural trade and policymakers.

Crop phenology↗

Collaborative Research Proposal: Time Resolved Optical Emissions Spectroscopy and Laser Induced Fluorescence Spectroscopy of Nanosecond Pulsed Discharges in a Gas-Liquid Water Film Reactor

Electrical discharge plasma formed in contact with liquid water is of interest for a wide range of applications in chemical, biomedical, agricultural, electrical, and materials science and engineering. Such plasma reactors are of very timely importance since they also have significant disinfection capability by inactivating bacteria, viruses and other pathogens. Many types of plasma sources including those driven by AC, DC, RF, microwave, and pulsed electrical power supplies coupled to a wide range of different electrode configurations and reactor designs have been developed and explored which contact the plasma with liquid water. Recent roadmaps have recommended that further work is needed to develop our understanding of the fundamental chemical and physical process which occur at the interface of non-thermal plasma with liquid water solutions in order to advance this large diversity of applications which ultimately depend upon efficient production of key reactive chemical species. There is a wide range of interacting factors that affect the chemical reactions that occur in the plasma, in the liquid phase, and at the interface. These factors ultimately govern the key reactive chemical species formed and used in the various applications and they include a) the reactor design and input parameters, b) the discharge and transport processes, c) the plasma properties, and d) the resulting chemical reactions. For pulsed discharges, the power supply design and output parameters control the applied voltage, frequency, rise time, and width (duration) of the applied pulses. The reactor design involves specification of the gas-liquid contacting methods, electrode gap distance, reactor volume and shape, and gas and liquid flow rates achievable. The gas and liquid compositions as well as the liquid properties such as pH and conductivity are also of key importance in determination of the resulting chemical reactions. In addition, the important plasma properties include plasma gas temperature, electron density, electron energy (distribution), and size of the plasma channels which are all affected by the discharge and transport properties. Many studies have focused on specific aspects of these various processes. Of particular important and relevance to the proposed work is the utilization of nanosecond pulses to generate plasma in gas-liquid systems, liquid bubbles, underwater, and in gases. Recent advances in nanosecond pulses provide significant advantages in utilization with liquid water. For example, fast rise time and short pulses are less sensitive to water conductivity, such short pulses may provide advantages in fast temporal quenching of the plasma, and fundamental analysis of pulse properties, including pulse shape and width, may be facilitated by investigation of single filamentary fast pulses. Many studies have also dealt with the role of the gas composition on formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) (i.e., hydroxyl radicals – ·OH, hydrogen peroxide – H 2 O 2 , various atomic oxygen species, ozone-O 3 , hydroperoxyl radicals HO 2 ·) and reactive nitrogen species (RNS) (i.e., nitrogen oxides – NO, NO 2 , N 2 O - collectively termed NO X , nitrite-NO 2 - , nitrate-NO 3 - , peroxynitrite-ONOO - ). The hydroxyl radical is the critical species in many chemical oxidation reactions for chemical degradation of toxic compounds in water and gases and for synthesis of some compounds. The mixture of various nitrogen oxide species is important for many biochemical and biological processes involved in biomedical and agricultural applications including disinfection and fertilizer production. The present proposal focuses on determination of the effects of time resolved electron density and hydroxyl radicals on plasma chemical reactions through collaboration with the Princeton Collaborative Low Temperature Plasma Research Facility (PCRF) at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL). In order to further investigate the role of the plasma generated electrons and hydroxyl radicals on the overall formation of the key species including hydrogen peroxide, hydroxyl radicals, and nitrogen oxides, the proposed work, thus seeks to determine high resolution time resolved electron density by optical emissions spectroscopy and time resolved hydroxyl radicals using laser induced fluorescence in the nanosecond discharge reactor. The combination of data on electron density and hydroxyl radical concentration will be utilized in the present work to more fully characterize the chemical reaction processes in this system and to advance the design, development, and operation of such chemical reactors for a wide range of applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluating User Errors and Temporal Trends in Marine Fish Communities Using 360-Degree Underwater Photography

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments, offering a non-invasive and potentially more efficient approach to marine species observations. eDNA monitoring could be especially useful in and around sites targeted for marine energy generation as these regions need regular monitoring that would be impractical with traditional techniques. Before we can fully rely upon eDNA, we must first verify its accuracy against other proven methods, such as the use of underwater photography. In this study, I deployed a 360-degree camera in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month during several hours overlapping slack tide. I investigated how having multiple people identify and count fish on underwater images could affect the overall results. Using chi square tests in R, I compared my fish identifications and counts to those made by another intern on the same images recorded in August. I found significant differences in the number of species identified and the total individual counts between the two different datasets. I also tested the statistical differences in both Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices between the August, September, and November camera deployments using a Hutcheson t-test. Only one significant difference was found in the Shannon index comparisons, and none were found between the Pielou evenness comparisons. These findings show that if multiple identifiers are used to process underwater images, quality control checks must be made to reduce the potential for error. This also points toward the possibility to leverage more advanced image analysis processes, such as automated image analysis software. The findings from this study also show that the dynamics of marine fish communities can vary over a few months; however, further analysis is needed to determine the extent of the seasonal changes in Sequim Bay.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Droplet Growth or Evaporation Does Not Buffer the Variability in Supersaturation in Clean Clouds

Abstract Water vapor supersaturation in clouds is a random variable that drives activation and growth of cloud droplets. The Pi Convection–Cloud Chamber generates a turbulent cloud with a microphysical steady state that can be varied from clean to polluted by adjusting the aerosol injection rate. The supersaturation distribution and its moments, e.g., mean and variance, are investigated for varying cloud microphysical conditions. High-speed and collocated Eulerian measurements of temperature and water vapor concentration are combined to obtain the temporally resolved supersaturation distribution. This allows quantification of the contributions of variances and covariances between water vapor and temperature. Results are consistent with expectations for a convection chamber, with strong correlation between water vapor and temperature; departures from ideal behavior can be explained as resulting from dry regions on the warm boundary, analogous to entrainment. The saturation ratio distribution is measured under conditions that show monotonic increase of liquid water content and decrease of mean droplet diameter with increasing aerosol injection rate. The change in liquid water content is proportional to the change in water vapor concentration between no-cloud and cloudy conditions. Variability in the supersaturation remains even after cloud droplets are formed, and no significant buffering is observed. Results are interpreted in terms of a cloud microphysical Damköhler number (Da), under conditions corresponding to , i.e., the slow-microphysics regime. This implies that clouds with very clean regions, such that is satisfied, will experience supersaturation fluctuations without them being buffered by cloud droplet growth. Significance Statement The saturation ratio (humidity) in clouds controls the growth rate and formation of cloud droplets. When air in a turbulent cloud mixes, the humidity varies in space and time throughout the cloud. This is important because it means cloud droplets experience different growth histories, thereby resulting in broader size distributions. It is often assumed that growth and evaporation of cloud droplets buffers out some of the humidity variations. Measuring these variations has been difficult, especially in the field. The purpose of this study is to measure the saturation ratio distribution in clouds with a range of conditions. We measure the in-cloud saturation ratio using a convection cloud chamber with clean to polluted cloud properties. We found in clouds with low concentrations of droplets that the variations in the saturation ratio are not suppressed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Importance of Addressing Disagreements Between Nominal and Effective Treatments During Bat Mortality Minimization Validation Studies

As the wind energy industry grows, so too does our need for effective and low-cost bat mortality minimization solutions. Despite knowledge gaps in our understanding of what drives bats to collide with spinning turbines, minimization solutions have shown success during validation studies. Curtailment has been consistently effective, reducing bat mortality from 33%-79%, depending on the curtailment scenario and species present. Several validation studies have demonstrated deterrent solutions, specifically ultrasonic deterrents, to be effective, but overall, more variable compared to curtailment solutions. Further, a study combining curtailment with ultrasonic deterrents produced encouraging results, finding that adding ultrasonic deterrents to turbines that were designated to curtail, significantly reduced mortality rates compared to curtailment only turbines. Despite positive results, the strength of inference achieved with validation studies is limited by methodological constraints associated with appropriately assigning fatalities to treatments. Because of the temporal separation between when a bat collides with a turbine and when it is discovered during a ground-based carcass survey, we must assign carcasses to a treatment that ran during the prior night(s). This process may introduce errors at multiple stages. First, for studies that rotate treatments among turbines, mortality surveyors must be confident that carcasses are 'fresh' such that mortalities are correctly assigned to the treatment from the previous night(s). Second, we must reconcile any misalignments between how we assign treatments and how we implement treatments (e.g., turbines assigned with a deterrent treatment may be implemented as another treatment when deterrent devices are not operating as designed). Finally, for curtailment solutions, it is critical to recognize that measured effects are a function of not just the treatment as implemented but the proportion of the night the treatment is realized (e.g., if wind speeds are greater than the curtailment treatment cut-in speed for the entire night, we cannot expect there to me any differences in mortality reduction relative to control turbines). Using a dataset collected between June and October 2017, that rotated 3 treatments (Deterrent Only, 5 m/s Curtail only, and 5 m/s Curtail & Deterrent) and 1 control condition across 16 turbines each night, we explored the importance and implications of accounting for potential errors in assigning fatalities to treatments. We present preliminary results comparing the mortality associated with error-corrected treatments and control conditions highlighting how the measured effect of a treatment (mortality) greatly depends on site specific implementation.

bats↗

The Helicity Sign of Flux Transfer Event Flux Ropes and Its Relationship to the Guide Field and Hall Physics in Magnetic Reconnection at the Magnetopause

Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) are transient magnetic flux ropes typically found at the Earth's magnetopause on the dayside. While it is known that FTEs are generated by magnetic reconnection, it remains unclear how the details of magnetic reconnection controls their properties. A recent study showed that the helicity sign of FTEs positively correlates with the east-west (B y ) component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). With data from the Cluster and Magnetospheric Multiscale missions, we performed a statistical study of 166 quasi force-free FTEs. We focus on their helicity sign and possible association with upstream solar wind conditions and local magnetic reconnection properties. Using both in situ data and magnetic shear modeling, we find that FTEs whose helicity sign corresponds to the IMF B y are associated with moderate magnetic shears while those that do not correspond to the IMF B y are associated with higher magnetic shears. While uncertainty in IMF propagation to the magnetopause may lead to randomness in the determination of the flux rope core field and helicity, we rather propose that for small IMF B y , which corresponds to high shear and low guide field, the Hall pattern of magnetic reconnection determines the FTE core field and helicity sign. In that context we explain how the temporal sequence of multiple X-line formation and the reconnection rate are important in determining the flux rope helicity sign. This work highlights a fundamental connection between kinetic processes at work in magnetic reconnection and the macroscale structure of FTEs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Towards Sheaf Theoretic Analyses for Delay Tolerant Networking

The goal of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is to take a collection of heterogeneous, disparate connections between satellites, space assets, ground stations, and ground infrastructure and bring it together into a cohesive, functioning overlay network. Depending on the systems being considered, one can find links with a one-way light time exceeding minutes (and hours),periodic links which can sometimes be predicted by orbital mechanics, and restrictions based on the variety of capabilities built into these systems. These characteristics preclude traditional network models and routing techniques and have classically led to either rigid routing tables or purely probabilistic models. As the deeper underlying structures remain unknown, development of more DTN-optimized algorithms has lacked the necessary foundation. In a continuation of previous work, the goal of this paper is to identify and study these fundamental structures that exist in delay tolerant networks (DTN), with a focus on space networks. The current routing methodology has been to use contact graph routing (CGR) algorithms. CGR models a series of known contacts as a static graph. For CGR to work, this graph must be globally consistent and must have an accurate picture of the network. Because this is a globally controlled structure, there is little room for flexibility in the event of changes to the network which would naturally occur as the network grows. As a response to the desire for flexibility as the network changes, we introduced the mathematical structure known as sheaves to DTNs last year. The tag-line for sheaves is that they are a mathematically precise way of gluing local data together into unique global data. Thus, sheaves lend extra power to traditional models(and routing algorithms) by taking additional information and merging it, in as consistent a manner as possible, with the representation itself. The clearest example of how Earth-bound networks exhibit behavior that is “sheafy” is link state routers, which build a local-to-global picture of their network by gluing local information together into a global network, exactly as a sheaf would do. For routing within delay tolerant networks to truly exploit this structure, a deeper structure than a graph is required. In this paper, we develop sheaves that can work over directed graphs such as temporal flow networks, we construct a sheaf representation for Dijkstra’s algorithm, and we outline a construction for routing sheaves capable of modeling multicast scenarios. Finally, there is a section of future work suggesting follow-on research.

Robert Short↗

Arctic Warming Signals from Satellite Observations

Global warming signals are expected to be amplified in the Arctic primarily because of ice-albedo feedback associated with the high reflectivity of ice and snow that blankets much of the region. The Arctic had been a poorly explored territory basically because of its general inaccessibility on account of extremely harsh weather conditions and the dominant presence of thick perennial ice in the region. The advent of satellite remote sensing systems since the 1960s, however, enabled the acquisition of synoptic data that depict in good spatial detail the temporal changes of many Arctic surface parameters. Among the surface parameters that have been studied using space based systems are surface temperature, sea ice concentration, snow cover, surface albedo and phytoplankton concentration. Associated atmospheric parameters, such as cloud cover, temperature profile, ozone concentration, and aerosol have also been derived. Recent observational and phenomenological studies have indeed revealed progressively changing conditions in the Arctic during the last few decades (e g , Walsh et al. 1996; Serreze et al 2000; Comiso and Parkinson 2004). The changes included declines in the extent and area of surfaces covered by sea ice and snow, increases in melt area over the Greenland ice sheets, thawing of the permafrost, warming in the troposphere, and retreat of the glaciers. These observations are consistent with the observed global warming that has been associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Karl and Trenberth 2003) and confirmed by modeling studies (Holland and Bitz, 2003). The Arctic system, however, is still not well understood complicated by a largely fluctuating wind circulation and atmospheric conditions (Proshutinsky and Johnson 1997) and controlled by what is now known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which provides a measure of the strength of atmospheric activities in the region (Thompson and Wallace 1998). Meanwhile, the observed Arctic conditions since the 1970s have been shown to exhibit a linear behavior that directly contradicts what has been expected from the A0 (Overland, 2005). The decade of the 1990s has been regarded as the warmest decade in the last century and current data indicates that the 2000s may be even a warmer decade than the 1990s further supporting the linear variability. In this paper, we use satellite data to gain insights into the warming Arctic and how the abnormally warm conditions during the last few years are reflected in the region.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Field validation of an actuated convergent-beam acoustic Doppler profiler for high resolution flow mapping

Abstract Energetic river and tidal flow environments feature complex hydrodynamic conditions. Conventional acoustic Doppler profiling instrumentation typically requires assumptions of flow homogeneity over the spatial scales of the divergent beam separation. This removes the ability to measure spatio-temporal variability within the flow. However, velocity variability within these spatial scales is often important in the design of structures and devices exposed to such flow, informing dynamic and peak hydrodynamic load predictions. The research presented outlines the development and testing of a flow measurement instrument consisting of multiple spatially-separated single beam acoustic Doppler profilers converging on a remote focal point, the location of which can be programmatically adjusted through actuation. This increases the spatial resolution at which remote field measurements can be made in energetic flow environments. Field testing of the instrument was conducted in a tidal channel at Sequim Bay Inlet, WA, USA. Results are compared with independent reference measurements made by a co-located, motion-corrected acoustic Doppler velocimeter. This comparison, across tidal velocities of 0.4–0.7 m s −1 , showed a mean velocity error of 0.5%–13.2% across nine sample locations within a 3.00 m × 2.25 m plane. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first publication of flow velocity results from non-intrusive acoustic measurements at an off-axis, focal point location that features 3D positional control.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗