Results for “risk objectives” — Page 81

NASA NTRS2010

Suited Occupant Injury Potential During Dynamic Spacecraft Flight Phases

In support of the Constellation Space Suit Element [CSSE], a new space-suit architecture will be created for support of Launch, Entry, Abort, Microgravity Extra- Vehicular Activity [EVA], and post-landing crew operations, safety and, under emergency conditions, survival. The space suit is unique in comparison to previous launch, entry, and abort [LEA] suit architectures in that it utilizes rigid mobility elements in the scye (i.e., shoulder) and the upper arm regions. The suit architecture also utilizes rigid thigh disconnect elements to create a quick disconnect approximately located above the knee. This feature allows commonality of the lower portion of the suit (from the thigh disconnect down), making the lower legs common across two suit configurations. This suit must interface with the Orion vehicle seat subsystem, which includes seat components, lateral supports, and restraints. Due to the unique configuration of spacesuit mobility elements, combined with the need to provide occupant protection during dynamic vehicle events, risks have been identified with potential injury due to the suit characteristics described above. To address the risk concerns, a test series has been developed in coordination with the Injury Biomechanics Research Laboratory [IBRL] to evaluate the likelihood and consequences of these potential issues. Testing includes use of Anthropomorphic Test Devices [ATDs; vernacularly referred to as "crash test dummies"], Post Mortem Human Subjects [PMHS], and representative seat/suit hardware in combination with high linear acceleration events. The ensuing treatment focuses on test purpose and objectives; test hardware, facility, and setup; and preliminary results.

Dub, Mark O.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Survey of Constellation-Era LOX/Methane Development Activities and Future Development Needs

NASA formed the Constellation Program in 2005 to achieve the objectives of maintaining American presence in low-Earth orbit, returning to the moon for purposes of establishing an outpost, and laying the foundation to explore Mars and beyond in the first half of the 21st century. The Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) was formulated to address the technology needs to address Constellation architecture decisions. The Propellants and Cryogenic Advanced Development (PCAD) project was tasked with risk mitigation of specific propulsion related technologies to support ETDP. Propulsion systems were identified as critical technologies owing to the high gear-ratio of lunar Mars landers Cryogenic propellants offer performance advantage over storables (NTOMMH) Mass savings translate to greater payload capacity In-situ production of propellant an attractive feature; methane and oxygen identified as possible Martian in-situ propellants New technologies were required to meet more difficult missions High performance LOX/LH2 deep throttle descent engines High performance LOX/LCH4 ascent main and reaction control system (RCS) engines The PCAD project sought to provide those technologies through Reliable ignition pulse RCS Fast start High efficiency engines Stable deep throttling.

Propulsion system components↗

NASA NTRS2018

Characterization of On-Orbit GPS Transmit Antenna Patterns for Space Users

The GPS Antenna Characterization Experiment (GPS ACE) has made extensive observations of GPS L1 signals received at geosynchronous (GEO) altitude, with the objective of developing comprehensive models of the signal levels and signal performance in the GPS transmit antenna side lobes. The experiment was originally motivated by the fact that data on the characteristics and performance of the GPS signals available in GEO and other high Earth orbits was limited. The lack of knowledge of the power and accuracy of the side lobe signals on-orbit added risk to missions seeking to employ the side lobes to meet navigation requirements or improve performance. The GPS ACE Project lled that knowledge gap through a collaboration between The Aerospace Corporation and NASA Goddard Space Fight Center to collect and analyze observations from GPS side lobe transmissions to a satellite at GEO using a highly-sensitive GPS receiver installed at the ground station. The GPS ACE architecture has been in place collecting observations of the GPS constellation with extreme sensitivity for several years. This sensitivity combined with around-the-clock, all-in-view processing enabled full azimuthal coverage of the GPS transmit gain patterns over time to angles beyond 90 degrees off-boresight. Results discussed in this paper include the reconstructed transmit gain patterns, with comparisons to available pre-fight gain measurements from the GPS vehicle contractors. For GPS blocks with extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results show remarkable agreement with ground based measurements. For blocks without extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results provide the only existing assessments of the full transmit gain patterns. The paper also includes results of pseudorange deviation analysis to assess systematic errors associated with GPS side lobe signals.

space↗

NASA NTRS2018

Characterization of On-Orbit GPS Transmit Antenna Patterns for Space Users

The GPS Antenna Characterization Experiment (GPS ACE) has made extensive observations of GPS L1 signals received at geosynchronous (GEO) altitude, with the objective of developing comprehensive models of the signal levels and signal performance in the GPS transmit antenna side lobes. The experiment was originally motivated by the fact that data on the characteristics and performance of the GPS signals available in GEO and other high Earth orbits was limited. The lack of knowledge of the power and accuracy of the side lobe signals on-orbit added risk to missions seeking to employ the side lobes to meet navigation requirements or improve performance. The GPS ACE Project lled that knowledge gap through a collaboration between The Aerospace Corporation and NASA Goddard Space Fight Center to collect and analyze observations from GPS side lobe transmissions to a satellite at GEO using a highly-sensitive GPS receiver installed at the ground station. The GPS ACE architecture has been in place collecting observations of the GPS constellation with extreme sensitivity for several years. This sensitivity combined with around-the-clock, all-in-view processing enabled full azimuthal coverage of the GPS transmit gain patterns over time to angles beyond 90 degrees o -boresight. Results discussed in this paper include the reconstructed transmit gain patterns, with comparisons to available pre-fight gain measurements from the GPS vehicle contractors. For GPS blocks with extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results show remarkable agreement with ground based measurements. For blocks without extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results provide the only existing assessments of the full transmit gain patterns. The paper also includes results of pseudorange deviation analysis to assess systematic errors associated with GPS side lobe signals.

Donaldson, Jennifer E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Characterization of On-Orbit GPS Transmit Antenna Patterns for Space Users

The GPS Antenna Characterization Experiment (GPS ACE) has made extensive observations of GPS L1 signals received at geosynchronous (GEO) altitude, with the objective of developing comprehensive models of the signal levels and signal performance in the GPS transmit antenna side lobes. The experiment was originally motivated by the fact that data on the characteristics and performance of the GPS signals available in GEO and other high Earth orbits was limited. The lack of knowledge of the power and accuracy of the side lobe signals on-orbit added risk to missions seeking to employ the side lobes to meet navigation requirements or improve performance. The GPS ACE Project lled that knowledge gap through a collaboration between The Aerospace Corporation and NASA Goddard Space Fight Center to collect and analyze observations from GPS side lobe transmissions to a satellite at GEO using a highly-sensitive GPS receiver installed at the ground station. The GPS ACE architecture has been in place collecting observations of the GPS constellation with extreme sensitivity for several years. This sensitivity combined with around-the-clock, all-in-view processing enabled full azimuthal coverage of the GPS transmit gain patterns over time to angles beyond 90 degrees o -boresight. Results discussed in this paper include the reconstructed transmit gain patterns, with comparisons to available pre-fight gain measurements from the GPS vehicle contractors. For GPS blocks with extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results show remarkable agreement with ground based measurements. For blocks without extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results provide the only existing assessments of the full transmit gain patterns. The paper also includes results of pseudorange deviation analysis to assess systematic errors associated with GPS side lobe signals.

Jennifer E Donaldson↗

NASA NTRS2021

Pretest Computational Assessment of Boundary Layer Transition in the NASA Juncture Flow Model with an NACA 0015-Based Wing

The first two phases of the NASA Juncture Flow experiment were carried out on a DLR-F6 swept-wing model and were designed to provide “CFD validation-quality” data toward the assessment and improvement of existing CFD turbulence models in predicting onset and extent of three-dimensional separated flow near the wing-juncture trailing-edge region. The next phase of experiments will involve an NACA 0015-based swept wing, as prior risk reduction experiments had indicated that this wing shape resulted in reduced separation near the juncture region than the DLR-F6 wing, thus providing a better option to evaluate the ability of CFD models to predict incipient turbulent separation. The NACA 0015 measurements will also include IR thermography to infer the variation of transition front with respect to an increasing angle of attack. The primary objective of this work is to computationally make a preliminary assessment of the transition front on both surfaces of the NACA 0015 wing at a crank-chord-based Reynolds number of 2.4 x 106 for four different angles of attack, (0°, 2.5°, 5°, and 7.5°) and to determine the dominant mechanisms responsible for transition. This assessment includes both RANS-based transition models from NASA’s OVERFLOW 2.3b flow solver and linear parabolized stability equations (PSE) stability analysis based on the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis code, LASTRAC. Linear PSE results indicate that the upper surface of the wing is dominated by Tollmien- Schlichting (TS) instabilities, and that the laminar flow region shrinks from about 50% chord to a very small region just downstream of the attachment line as the angle of attack is increased from 0° to 7.5°. Consequently, the transition fronts predicted by the Spalart- Allmaras-based amplification factor transport (AFT-2017b) equation model (which accounts for the TS instabilities alone) and the Menter’s shear-stress transport equation (SST2003)- based Langtry-Menter transition model with ability to account for both TS and crossflow effects (LM2015) compare well with those predicted using linear PSE. On the lower surface of the wing, stationary crossflow (CF) instabilities begin to appear on the inboard portion of the wing in addition to the TS-instabilities for the larger angles of attack (5° and 7.5°), further reducing the laminar flow extent within the inboard region. The LM2015 model that accounts for CF effects is able to replicate this trend but appears to predict a slightly earlier transition. The outcome of this effort will inform the experiment and, when the actual experimental data become available, provide further opportunity to assess and improve the various transition models.

CFD modeling↗

NASA NTRS2021

Pretest Computational Assessment of Boundary Layer Transition in the NASA Juncture Flow Model with an NACA 0015-Based Wing

The first two phases of the NASA Juncture Flow experiment were carried out on a DLR-F6 swept-wing model and were designed to provide “CFD validation-quality” data toward the assessment and improvement of existing CFD turbulence models in predicting onset and extent of three-dimensional separated flow near the wing-juncture trailing-edge region. The next phase of experiments will involve an NACA 0015-based swept wing, as prior risk reduction experiments had indicated that this wing shape resulted in reduced separation near the juncture region than the DLR-F6 wing, thus providing a better option to evaluate the ability of CFD models to predict incipient turbulent separation. The NACA 0015 measurements will also include IR thermography to infer the variation of transition front with respect to an increasing angle of attack. The primary objective of this work is to computationally make a preliminary assessment of the transition front on both surfaces of the NACA 0015 wing at a crank-chord-based Reynolds number of 2.4 x 106 for four different angles of attack, (0°, 2.5°, 5°, and 7.5°) and to determine the dominant mechanisms responsible for transition. This assessment includes both RANS-based transition models from NASA’s OVERFLOW 2.3b flow solver and linear parabolized stability equations (PSE) stability analysis based on the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis code, LASTRAC. Linear PSE results indicate that the upper surface of the wing is dominated by Tollmien- Schlichting (TS) instabilities, and that the laminar flow region shrinks from about 50% chord to a very small region just downstream of the attachment line as the angle of attack is increased from 0° to 7.5°. Consequently, the transition fronts predicted by the Spalart- Allmaras-based amplification factor transport (AFT-2017b) equation model (which accounts for the TS instabilities alone) and the Menter’s shear-stress transport equation (SST2003)- based Langtry-Menter transition model with ability to account for both TS and crossflow effects (LM2015) compare well with those predicted using linear PSE. On the lower surface of the wing, stationary crossflow (CF) instabilities begin to appear on the inboard portion of the wing in addition to the TS-instabilities for the larger angles of attack (5° and 7.5°), further reducing the laminar flow extent within the inboard region. The LM2015 model that accounts for CF effects is able to replicate this trend but appears to predict a slightly earlier transition. The outcome of this effort will inform the experiment and, when the actual experimental data become available, provide further opportunity to assess and improve the various transition models.

CFD modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy burden aware and thermal resilience informed thermal energy storage system planning for disadvantaged communities

Disadvantaged communities often face a disproportionate energy burden because they need to allocate a higher percentage of their income to energy costs. More importantly, climate change-induced extreme weather events, such as heat waves and severe cold snaps, exacerbate these communities’ energy burdens. As a result, low- and medium-income communities are more likely to experience energy supply disruptions, increased health risks, and elevated energy bills because of inadequate thermal insulation and airtightness in their houses. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems, such as large-scale (community-level) geothermal energy storage and small-scale (building-level) phase change material (PCM)–based storage, have a great potential to improve building energy efficiency and to enhance thermal comfort, load shifting, and integration with renewable energy. The objective of this study is to optimally allocate building level PCM-based TES systems at the community level by considering energy equity and extreme weather effects. To this end, we developed an energy burden and thermal resilience–informed TES system planning framework, which includes three modules: (1) a community-level energy burden and thermal resilience assessment module, (2) building-level a TES system integration and assessment module, and (3) a community-level optimal planning module. Case studies were conducted on four disadvantaged communities in Montgomery and Shelby Counties in Tennessee with energy burdens >10% and with high percentages of people of color. The results indicate that this comprehensive planning framework can assist disadvantaged communities in reducing their energy burden and in bolstering their resilience against the adverse effects of climate change.

Shen, Zhenglai↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stock-specific spatial overlap among seabird predators and Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon suggests a mechanism for predation during early marine residence

Abstract Objective Because predation is thought to be the primary source of natural mortality for juvenile salmon first entering the ocean, we sought to identify regions where, on average, stock-specific spatial overlap between the distribution of threatened and endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and abundant fish-eating seabirds (common murres Uria aalge and sooty shearwaters Ardenna grisea) suggests the greatest potential for ocean predation risk to juvenile Chinook Salmon. Methods The relative abundance and spatial distribution of seabird predators and juvenile Chinook Salmon were quantified as part of long-term ecosystem surveys during May 2003–2012 and June 2003–2022. Genetic stock identification methods were used to assign individual fish to their respective stock groups. Stock-specific species distribution models then generated maps and indices of average annual spatial overlap between predators and prey within the survey area. Result There is unequivocal evidence for spatial overlap between common murres, sooty shearwaters, and five genetic groups of interior and lower Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon. We found strongly positive (≥0.70) spatial correlations between predator and prey densities in both May and June, although spatial overlap was, in general, greater during May. The region of highest spatial overlap occurred on the inner continental shelf between the Columbia River mouth (46.2°N) and Grays Harbor (47.0°N), a region at the beginning of the juvenile salmon migratory pathway that is strongly affected by freshwater outflow from the river. Conclusion Our findings support the idea that ocean avian predation during early marine residence has the potential to affect marine survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon and should be further investigated to better inform and implement ecological models and possible recovery actions for Chinook Salmon populations of the Columbia River basin.

Zamon, Jeannette E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Associations between SARS-CoV-2 Infection or COVID-19 Vaccination and Human Milk Composition: A Multi-Omics Approach

Background: The risk of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) via human milk-feeding is virtually nonexistent. Adverse effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination for lactating individuals are not different from the general population, and no evidence has been found that their infants exhibit adverse effects. Yet, there remains substantial hesitation among this population globally regarding the safety of these vaccines. Objectives: Herein, we aimed to determine if compositional changes in milk occur following SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccination, including any evidence of vaccine components. Methods: An extensive multiomics approach was taken using a subset of milk samples obtained as part of our broad studies examining the effects on milk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination. Results: We found that compared with unvaccinated individuals, SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with significant compositional differences in 67 proteins, 385 lipids, and 13 metabolites. In contrast, COVID-19 vaccination was not associated with any changes in lipids or metabolites, although it was associated with changes in 13 or fewer proteins. Compositional changes in milk differed by vaccine. Changes following vaccination were greatest after 1–6 h for the mRNA-based Moderna vaccine (8 changed proteins), 3 d for the mRNA-based Pfizer (4 changed proteins), and adenovirus-based Johnson and Johnson (13 changed proteins) vaccines. Proteins that changed after both natural infection and Johnson and Johnson vaccine were associated mainly with systemic inflammatory responses. In addition, no vaccine components were detected in any milk sample. Conclusions: Together, our data provide evidence of only minimal changes in milk composition because of COVID-19 vaccination, with much greater changes after natural SARS-CoV-2 infection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiple monoenergetic gamma radiography (MMGR) with a compact superconducting cyclotron

Smuggling of special nuclear materials and nuclear devices through borders and ports of entry constitutes a major risk to global security. Technologies are needed to reliably screen the flow of commerce for the presence of high-Z materials such as uranium and plutonium. Here, we present an experimental proof-of-concept of a technique that uses inelastic (p,p') nuclear reactions to generate monoenergetic photons, which provide means to measure the areal density and the effective-Z (Z eff ) of an object with an accuracy surpassing that achieved by current methods. We use an ION-12 SC superconducting 12 MeV proton cyclotron to produce 4.4, 6.1, 6.9, and 7.1 MeV photons from a variety of nuclear reactions. Using these photons in a transmission mode, we show that we are able to accurately reconstruct the areal densities and Zeff of a test object. This methodology could enable mobile applications to screen commercial cargoes with high material specificity, providing a means of distinguishing common cargo materials from high-Z materials that include uranium and plutonium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uranium Immobility in Tims Branch Wetland

The objective of this study was to address an item identified by the Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility Federal Review Group (LFRG) panel during their review of the Savannah River Site’s Composite Analysis. Their concern was that the Tims Branch wetland, which has elevated levels of uranium (U) originating from site operations between 1952 to 1985, may be a secondary source term, posing a human health risk. This report briefly describes three studies dealing with: 1) quantifying the mass of U remaining in the wetland, 2) quantifying the tendency of U to release from Tims Branch sediment, and 3) describing the distribution of U in aqueous and suspended solids in Tims Branch water during episodic storm events. The Tims Branch wetland has been extremely effective for the last 50 years at immobilizing U released to the system. A detailed map including 270,000 gamma spectra of the U distribution in the wetland indicated that 84% of the initial 43,500 kg U introduced in the system remain there after 50 years (Kaplan et al., 2020). The effectiveness of immobilizing U is supported by stream water measurements collected over the last several decades indicating that U concentrations have been consistently below drinking water regulatory limits (i.e., the EPA Maximum Contaminant Level, 30 pg/L (SRNS, 2019)). Furthermore, using contaminated Tims Branch sediments, in situ desorption Kd values (ratio of U sediment/U Water) were extremely high, ranging from 104to 106 L/kg, suggesting the U is strongly bound to these wetland sediments. Finally, a detailed study of Tims Branch stream water properties during episodic rain events indicated that essentially all the U transported in this stream was associated with suspended solids (Batson et al., 1996). Together these findings indicate that the Tims Branch wetland is extremely effective in its present state at immobilizing U and that the small masses of U released downstream will be predominantly in association with suspended solids.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2004

Ka-Band Multibeam Aperture Phased Array Being Developed

Phased-array antenna systems offer many advantages to low-Earth-orbiting satellite systems. Their large scan angles and multibeam capabilities allow for vibration-free, rapid beam scanning and graceful degradation operation for high rate downlink of data to users on the ground. Technology advancements continue to reduce the power, weight, and cost of these systems to make phased arrays a competitive alternative in comparison to the gimbled reflector system commonly used in science missions. One effort to reduce the cost of phased arrays is the development of a Ka-band multibeam aperture (MBA) phased array by Boeing Corporation under a contract jointly by the NASA Glenn Research Center and the Office of Naval Research. The objective is to develop and demonstrate a space-qualifiable dual-beam Ka-band (26.5-GHz) phased-array antenna. The goals are to advance the state of the art in Ka-band active phased-array antennas and to develop and demonstrate multibeam transmission technology compatible with spacecraft in low Earth orbit to reduce the cost of future missions by retiring certain development risks. The frequency chosen is suitable for space-to-space and space-to-ground communication links. The phased-array antenna has a radiation pattern designed by combining a set of individual radiating elements, optimized with the type of radiating elements used, their positions in space, and the amplitude and phase of the currents feeding the elements. This arrangement produces a directional radiation pattern that is proportional to the number of individual radiating elements. The arrays of interest here can scan the main beam electronically with a computerized algorithm. The antenna is constructed using electronic components with no mechanical parts, and the steering is performed electronically, without any resulting vibration. The speed of the scanning is limited primarily by the control electronics. The radiation performance degrades gracefully if a portion of the elements fail. The arrays can be constructed to conform to a mounting surface, and multibeam capability is integral to the design. However, there are challenges for mission designers using monolithic-microwave-integrated-circuit- (MMIC-) based arrays because of reduced power efficiency, higher costs, and certain system effects that result in link degradations. The multibeam aperture phased-array antenna development is attempting to address some of these issues, particularly manufacturing, costs, and system performance.

Reinhart, Richard C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben Phillips↗

DOE OSTI2021

Technology Development for Modular, Low-Cost, High-Temperature Recuperators for Supercritical CO 2 Power Cycles (Final Report)

The program’s focus was to evaluate, advance, and demonstrate recuperator design concepts, materials, and fabrication methods that facilitate the commercial availability of compact and low-cost recuperators. Emphasis was placed on recompression closed Brayton cycles having a turbine inlet temperature exceeding 700°C and differential pressures on the order of 200 bar and were scalable to accommodate plant sizes from 10 to 1,000 MWe. The primary objectives of the first budget period, which included conceptual design, preliminary development, and prototype fabrication and testing, were accomplished. A new recuperator design concept, stacked-sheet heat exchanger (SSHX), was realized during the project. The design was taken from paper to hardware and successfully tested. The SSHX prototype recuperator met or exceeded program thermal, hydraulic and performance/cost metrics goals. The first budget period was extended to retire risk in scaling the recuperator from the kWt to MWt thermal capacity scale. The fabrication and design requirements for the budget period one extension were met. Delays associated with the Covid-19 pandemic prevented the fabrication and testing of the industrial scale prototype.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Laboratory

The Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) in Louisiana and Mississippi is an Upper Cretaceous source rock formation sandwiched between the sands of the upper and lower Tuscaloosa sections. The TMS is believed to be the source rock for underlying prolific Tuscaloosa sand formation. The TMS has an unproven estimate of 7,000,000,000 bbls of recoverable oil while its current total average production is about 3,000 bbls of oil per day in 2017. In 2013 and 2014, more than 80 wells were drilled horizontally into the TMS that were fractured using multi-stage fracturing technology. The results from this have been mixed, but recent production for several wells show an appealing initial oil production rate of more than 1000 bbl/day. The preliminary core analysis by industry partners and a few literature studies shows that the TMS is one of the most clay-rich and sensitive shales to water. Due to these and other technical problems, there is high risk for the economic development of TMS compared to other shale plays. The experiences of major industrial players in the TMS show the necessity of open and collaborative efforts to better understand the critical gaps in the development of this challenging and potentially highly economic shale play to enable more cost-efficient and environmentally-sound recovery from this unconventional liquid-rich shale play. The overall objective of this project is to form a consortium of science and industry partners to address the following six major objectives using scientific and technical approaches: 1. To improve wellbore integrity by better understanding the sources of the wellbore instability issues, proposing innovative mud and cement design for the TMS. 2. To improve formation evaluation using laboratory techniques for the evaluation of mineralogical composition, organic content, and produced-water chemistry as well as well log and geophysical analysis. 3. To determine the role of geologic discontinuities on fracture growth and shale creep behavior using digital image correlation technique. 4. To investigate the application of stable CO 2 foam and super-hydrophobic proppants for improved reservoir stimulation. 5. To better understand the nature of water/hydrocarbon/CO 2 flow in clay and organic-rich formation and the role of water/fluid interaction on recovery. 6. To prepare better socio-economic environment for TMS development by community engagement. Subsequently, the TMS virtual laboratory conducted testing and analysis of various properties of rock and formation fluids from the TMS, including but not limited to the following: Analyzing reports and logs to better understand the source of wellbore instability in TMS wells; Experiments to design a customized cement based on TMS requirements; Experiments to obtain the mineralogical and geochemical composition of TMS samples; Seismic analysis of TMS geophysical data to better predict total organic carbon (TOC) content and brittleness in TMS; Well log analysis to better estimate the TOC and geo-mechanical properties of TMS; Experiments on formation water to understand the chemistry of produced water; Experiments to determine the role of lamination and natural fractures on fracture propagation or rock deformation using digital image correlation technique in in-direct tensile tests, semi-circular bend test and creep tests Experiments to determine the stability and rheological properties of nanoparticle-stabilized CO 2 foam in TMS rock samples; Experiments to determine fluid dynamics in un-propped TMS fractures and the role of nano-coating of proppants on fluid dynamics in fractures with proppants; Micro-fluidics experiments to enhance the understanding of fluid dynamics in tight liquidrich pores with high clay content; Socio-economic studies to better engage communities in TMS development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Active High Assurance Authentication Protocol (AHAAP)

The AHAAP Maturation Project involves maturation and evaluation of a patented zero-trust tamper-resistant high-assurance session-less dynamic and active device authentication protocol that simultaneously authenticates identity and provides integrity verification in a single step, substantially reducing the risk of cyberattack, and eliminating the need for costly and complex conventional communication security systems requirements (i.e., cryptography, Public Key Infrastructure (PKI), and key management). These cybersecurity attributes of the technology must be preserved when applying the technology to different cybersecurity solutions, including Command & Control (C&C), Over-the-Air (OTA) update, Common Access Card (CAC), and distributed energy resource (DER) implementations, among others. The technology research objective is to test and verify that the cybersecurity attributes of the technology are not degraded in different cybersecurity applications. The primary technology development objective is to build minimum viable products to demonstrate the technology addresses today’s cybersecurity threats so that prospective investors, strategic partners, regulatory agencies, and commercial customers can interact with and assess the protection assured by the technology. The AHAAP Maturation Project goal is to develop, test, and validate one or more AHAAP implementations. The AHAAP Maturation Project tasks are: (i) engineer AHAAP implementation software, (ii) build a functional prototype that implements the AHAAP software for demonstration, testing, analysis, and evaluation purposes, and (iii) generate a report detailing the results of the AHAAP C&C software and hardware implementation. The final project deliverables are: (i) AHAAP software implementation and prototype, (ii) a report from Sandia National Laboratories detailing the results of the AHAAP implementations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗