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DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing the Quality and Reliability of Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials through Better Reporting Practices

Recent developments in machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have empowered even nonexperts in machine learning to train MLIPs for accelerating materials simulations. However, reproducibility and independent evaluation of presented MLIP results is hindered by a lack of clear standards in current literature. In this Perspective, we aim to provide guidance on best practices for documenting MLIP use while walking the reader through the development and deployment of MLIPs including hardware and software requirements, generating training data, training models, validating predictions, and MLIP inference. We also suggest useful plotting practices and analyses to validate and boost confidence in the deployed models. Finally, we provide a step-by-step checklist for practitioners to use directly before publication to standardize the information to be reported. Altogether, we hope that our work will encourage the reliable and reproducible use of these MLIPs, which will accelerate their ability to make a positive impact in various disciplines including materials science, chemistry, and biology, among others.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Declining Reservoir Reliability and Increasing Reservoir Vulnerability: Long-Term Observations Reveal Longer and More Severe Periods of Low Reservoir Storage for Major United States Reservoirs

Hydrological drought is a pervasive and reoccurring challenge in managing water resources. Reservoirs are critical for lessening the impacts of drought on water available for many uses. We use a novel and generalized approach to identify periods of unusually low reservoir storage—via comparisons to operational rule curves and historical patterns—to investigate how droughts affect storage in 250 reservoirs across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We find that the maximum amount of water stored in reservoirs is decreasing, and that periods of unusually low storage are becoming longer, more severe, and more variable in (a) western and central CONUS reservoirs, and (b) reservoirs with primarily over-year storage. Results suggest that reservoir storage has become less reliable and more vulnerable to larger deviations from desired storage patterns. These changes have coincided with ongoing shifts to the hydroclimate of CONUS, and with sedimentation further reducing available reservoir storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI Improves the Accuracy, Reliability, and Economic Value of Continental‐Scale Flood Predictions

Accurate flood early warnings are critical to minimize damage and loss of life. Current large‐scale operational forecasting systems, however, have limited accuracy, description of uncertainty, and computational efficiency. While Artificial intelligence (AI) can address these limitations in principle, the accuracy and reliability of AI forecasts have thus far proven insufficient. Here we present a novel hybrid framework that integrates AI‐based machinery termed Errorcastnet (ECN) with the National Water Model (NWM) to showcase the potential of ensemble AI flood forecasts over the contiguous U.S. ECN boosts prediction accuracy four‐ to six‐fold across lead times of 1–10 days, while providing uncertainty quantification. It also outperforms Google's state‐of‐the‐art global AI model. ECN‐based forecasts offer superior economic value (up to four‐fold) for decision‐making as compared to those from NWM alone. ECN performs well in varied ecoregions, physiography, and land management conditions. The framework is computationally efficient, enabling national‐scale ensemble forecasts in minutes.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reliably obtaining white light from layered halide perovskites at room temperature

The recent observation of broadband white-light emission from the inorganic sheets of certain layered lead-bromide perovskites has instigated a multitude of studies on this unusual phenomenon. However, the vast majority of layered bromide perovskites have flat (001) inorganic sheets and display a narrow photoluminescence at room temperature. A handful of heavily distorted (001) perovskites display broad emission, but to date, there is no method of predicting which perovskites will produce white light at room temperature prior to screening different organic molecules that can template 2D perovskites and crystallizing and analyzing the material. By studying ten Pb–Cl perovskites, we find that they all exhibit a broad yellow emission, which is strikingly invariant despite different distortions in the inorganic framework seen across the series. We postulate that this broad emission is intrinsic to all layered Pb–Cl perovskites. Although broad, the emission is not white. By adding Br to the Pb–Cl perovskites we obtain both the narrow emission and the broad emission such that the combined emission color smoothly varies from yellow to warm white to cold white as a function of the halide ratio. Thus, alloying Br to Pb–Cl perovskites appears to be a simple and general strategy for reliably obtaining white light at room temperature from (001) perovskites, regardless of the templating effects of the organic molecules, which should greatly expand the number of white-light-emitting layered perovskites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

CIRCLEZ : Reliable photometric redshifts for active galactic nuclei computed solely using photometry from Legacy Survey Imaging for DESI

Photometric redshifts for galaxies hosting an accreting supermassive black hole in their center, known as active galactic nuclei (AGNs), are notoriously challenging. At present, they are most optimally computed via spectral energy distribution (SED) fittings, assuming that deep photometry for many wavelengths is available. However, for AGNs detected from all-sky surveys, the photometry is limited and provided by a range of instruments and studies. This makes the task of homogenizing the data challenging, presenting a dramatic drawback for the millions of AGNs that wide surveys such as SRG/eROSITA are poised to detect. This work aims to compute reliable photometric redshifts for X-ray-detected AGNs using only one dataset that covers a large area: the tenth data release of the Imaging Legacy Survey (LS10) for DESI. LS10 provides deep grizW1-W4 forced photometry within various apertures over the footprint of the eROSITA-DE survey, which avoids issues related to the cross-calibration of surveys. We present the results from CIRCLEZ, a machine-learning algorithm based on a fully connected neural network. CIRCLEZ is built on a training sample of 14 000 X-ray-detected AGNs and utilizes multi-aperture photometry, mapping the light distribution of the sources. The accuracy (σNMAD) and the fraction of outliers (η) reached in a test sample of 2913 AGNs are equal to 0.067 and 11.6%, respectively. The results are comparable to (or even better than) what was previously obtained for the same field, but with much less effort in this instance. We further tested the stability of the results by computing the photometric redshifts for the sources detected in CSC2 and Chandra-COSMOS Legacy, reaching a comparable accuracy as in eFEDS when limiting the magnitude of the counterparts to the depth of LS10. The method can be applied to fainter samples of AGNs using deeper optical data from future surveys (for example, LSST, Euclid), granting LS10-like information on the light distribution beyond the morphological type. Along with this paper, we have released an updated version of the photometric redshifts (including errors and probability distribution functions) for eROSITA/eFEDS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near-zero-field magnetoresistance measurements: A simple method to track atomic-scale defects involved in metal-oxide-semiconductor device reliability

We demonstrate the ability of a relatively new analytical technique, near-zero-field magnetoresistance (NZFMR), to track atomic-scale phenomena involved in the high-field stressing damage of fully processed Si metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors. We show that the technique is sensitive to both the Pb0 and Pb1 dangling bond centers and that the presence of both centers can be inferred through NZFMR via hyperfine interactions with the central 29Si atoms of the dangling bonds. The NZFMR results also provide evidence for the redistribution of mobile hydrogen atoms at the Si/SiO2 interface and also a potential change in the average dipolar coupling constant between electrons in neighboring defects. This work shows that NZFMR offers significant analytical power for studying technologically relevant semiconductor device reliability problems and has advantages in experimental simplicity over comparable techniques.

Moxim, Stephen J. (ORCID:0000000309659904)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optoelectronic and structural characterization of trapezoidal defects in 4H-SiC epilayers and the effect on MOSFET reliability

To this day, trapezoidal defects are found in clusters and high counts in wafers representing the industry standard in terms of material quality being produced. This study sheds light on the nature, origin, behavior, and impact of this defect on device yield and reliability. Trapezoidal defects in 4H-SiC epitaxial layers were investigated by photoluminescence (PL) imaging, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), cathodoluminescence spectrum imaging (CLSI), SEM electron beam induced current (EBIC) imaging, and by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observation. The bar-shaped stacking faults were identified by the PL and CL measurements with a peak emission wavelength of 420 and 450 nm. An optoelectronic behavioral study based on the recombination enhanced dislocation glide mechanism revealed how expanding dislocations and stacking faults interact with each other. Combining the luminescence and microscopy results, the nature of the stacking faults was identified as being a combination of Shockley-type and Frank-type stacking faults. The TEM analysis showed that these defects originate from the substrate and the stacking sequences of some of the faults were determined as (…2, 4, 2…) and (…2, 3, 2…) in the Zhdanov's notation by high-resolution TEM. The origin of this defect is speculated based on our results and previous reports. The EBIC imaging showed that the high density of SFs in these towers is a strong site of carrier recombination, which presumably has an impact on the transfer characteristics of SiC devices. Furthermore, these defects have shown to impact metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors electrical performance via an increase in the on-state resistance depending on the coverage percentage of the tower of defects in the active area of the device.

4H-SiC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Developing reliable machine learning interatomic potential for Fe–Cr–Ni austenitic alloys

Gaining atomistic understanding of mechanical behavior of heat-resistant structural materials such as Fe–Cr–Ni-based alloys requires an approach with an accuracy close to density functional theory (DFT) that considers the intrinsic properties of the bulk lattice and important defects such as stacking faults, grain boundaries, and surfaces. This work aims to develop reliable machine learning interatomic potential (MLIAP) at cross-scale for Fe–Cr–Ni ternary alloys with a focus on the face-centered-cubic (fcc) solid solution structure. Leveraging the advantages of moment tensor potentials, which typically necessitate a relatively small training dataset and enable rapid calculations using the large-scale atomic/molecular massively parallel simulator package, we ensure the stability and accuracy of the trained potentials. Important defects such as stacking faults, grain boundaries, and surfaces for wide-range compositions are investigated. Structural, thermal, elastic, and defect properties are determined from molecular dynamics simulations comprising several thousand atoms, generated via canonical Monte Carlo simulations guided by the trained potential. The trained potential allows efficient atomic simulations of structural, thermal, and mechanical properties of fcc Fe–Cr–Ni solid solution alloys as a function of composition and temperature. Therefore, the MLIAP approach represents a major advancement from DFT calculations that are limited to small simulation sizes and traditional molecular dynamics simulations using relatively low accuracy potentials. Furthermore, this work outlines a practical foundation for further investigating the structural evolution and mechanical behavior of austenitic stainless steel and nickel-based alloys in a wide array of applications in extreme environments.

Crystal structure↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reliable photometric membership (RPM) of galaxies in clusters – I. A machine learning method and its performance in the local universe

ABSTRACT We introduce a new method to determine galaxy cluster membership based solely on photometric properties. We adopt a machine learning approach to recover a cluster membership probability from galaxy photometric parameters and finally derive a membership classification. After testing several machine learning techniques (such as stochastic gradient boosting, model averaged neural network and k-nearest neighbours), we found the support vector machine algorithm to perform better when applied to our data. Our training and validation data are from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey main sample. Hence, to be complete to $M_r^* + 3$, we limit our work to 30 clusters with $z$phot-cl ≤ 0.045. Masses (M200) are larger than $\sim 0.6\times 10^{14} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ (most above $3\times 10^{14} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$). Our results are derived taking in account all galaxies in the line of sight of each cluster, with no photometric redshift cuts or background corrections. Our method is non-parametric, making no assumptions on the number density or luminosity profiles of galaxies in clusters. Our approach delivers extremely accurate results (completeness, C $\sim 92{\rm{ per\ cent}}$ and purity, P $\sim 87{\rm{ per\ cent}}$) within R200, so that we named our code reliable photometric membership. We discuss possible dependencies on magnitude, colour, and cluster mass. Finally, we present some applications of our method, stressing its impact to galaxy evolution and cosmological studies based on future large-scale surveys, such as eROSITA, EUCLID, and LSST.

Lopes, Paulo A. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

OzDES reverberation mapping program: Lag recovery reliability for 6-yr C iv analysis

ABSTRACT We present the statistical methods that have been developed to analyse the OzDES reverberation mapping sample. To perform this statistical analysis we have created a suite of customizable simulations that mimic the characteristics of each source in the OzDES sample. These characteristics include: the variability in the photometric and spectroscopic light curves, the measurement uncertainties, and the observational cadence. By simulating the sources in the OzDES sample that contain the C iv emission line, we developed a set of criteria that rank the reliability of a recovered time-lag depending on the agreement between different recovery methods, the magnitude of the uncertainties, and the rate at which false positives were found in the simulations. These criteria were applied to simulated light curves and these results used to estimate the quality of the resulting Radius–Luminosity relation. We grade the results using three quality levels (gold, silver, and bronze). The input slope of the R–L relation was recovered within 1σ for each of the three quality samples, with the gold standard having the lowest dispersion with a recovered a R–L relation slope of 0.454 ± 0.016 with an input slope of 0.47. Future work will apply these methods to the entire OzDES sample of 771 AGN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reliable workflow for improving nanoscale X-ray fluorescence tomographic analysis on nanoparticle-treated HeLa cells

Abstract Scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) tomography provides powerful characterization capabilities in evaluating elemental distribution and differentiating their inter- and intra-cellular interactions in a three-dimensional (3D) space. Scanning XRF tomography encounters practical challenges from the sample itself, where the range of rotation angles is limited by geometric constraints, involving sample substrates or nearby features either blocking or converging into the field of view. This study aims to develop a reliable and efficient workflow that can (1) expand the experimental window for nanoscale tomographic analysis of local areas of interest within a laterally extended specimen, and (2) bridge 3D analysis at micrometer and nanoscales on the same specimen. We demonstrate the workflow using a specimen of HeLa cells exposed to iron oxide core and titanium dioxide shell (Fe3O4/TiO2) nanocomposites. The workflow utilizes iterative and multiscale XRF data collection with intermediate sample processing by focused ion beam (FIB) sample preparation between measurements at different length scales. Initial assessment combined with precise sample manipulation via FIB allows direct removal of sample regions that are obstacles to both incident X-ray beam and outgoing XRF signals, which considerably improves the subsequent nanoscale tomography analysis. This multiscale analysis workflow has advanced bio-nanotechnology studies by providing deep insights into the interaction between nanocomposites and single cells at a subcellular level as well as statistical assessments from measuring a population of cells.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Q -score as a reliability measure for protein, nucleic acid and small-molecule atomic coordinate models derived from 3DEM maps

Atomic coordinate models are important for the interpretation of 3D maps produced with cryoEM and cryoET (3D electron microscopy; 3DEM). In addition to visual inspection of such maps and models, quantitative metrics can inform about the reliability of the atomic coordinates, in particular how well the model is supported by the experimentally determined 3DEM map. A recently introduced metric, Q-score, was shown to correlate well with the reported resolution of the map for well fitted models. Here, we present new statistical analyses of Q-score based on its application to ∼10 000 maps and models archived in the EMDB (Electron Microscopy Data Bank) and PDB (Protein Data Bank). Further, we introduce two new metrics based on Q-score to represent each map and model relative to all entries in the EMDB and those with similar resolution. We explore through illustrative examples of proteins, nucleic acids and small molecules how Q-scores can indicate whether the atomic coordinates are well fitted to 3DEM maps and also whether some parts of a map may be poorly resolved due to factors such as molecular flexibility, radiation damage and/or conformational heterogeneity. These examples and statistical analyses provide a basis for how Q-scores can be interpreted effectively in order to evaluate 3DEM maps and atomic coordinate models prior to publication and archiving.

B factors↗
DOE OSTI2026

Distribution System Congestion Management - A Survey of Reliable Integration for Aggregated Resources and Microgrids

Rising penetration of consumer-owned Distribution Grid Resources (DGRs), increasingly managed by third party aggregators and enrolled in grid services and wholesale market programs, can create localized congestion in distribution networks. Managing these constraints is challenging due to a persistent coordination and information gap: utilities are accountable for reliability and have network topology and state visibility, while aggregators control the DGR capability needed to relieve congestion. This survey synthesizes congestion management solutions for distribution systems with high DGR penetration, covering both market-based mechanisms (distribution level markets, locational pricing, flexibility auctions) and non-market-based solutions (network reconfiguration, direct DGR control, demand response, curtailment, etc.). The literature is organized across three decision horizons: long term planning, operational planning, and real-time operation. Special attention is devoted to emerging distribution system operator architectures and coordination frameworks spanning transmission system operators, aggregators, and microgrids. Drawing on recent case studies and implementations, we distill best practices, identify key technical and economic barriers, and outline research directions. The evidence points to a shift toward integrated congestion management that combines market signals with technical controls, enabled by improved monitoring, forecasting, and closed loop control capabilities.

Active Distribution Networks (ADN)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Island Power Systems With High Levels of Inverter-Based Resources: Stability and Reliability Challenges

As many island power systems seek to integrate high levels of renewable energy, they face new challenges on top of the existing difficulties of operating an isolated grid. With their drastically declining cost, variable renewables, such as wind and photovoltaics (PVs), are increasingly being integrated into island grids to reduce the use of imported fuels. These deployments of renewable energy are dominated by PV and wind generators, which bring unique challenges of their own. While the integration issues span numerous timescales (from microseconds to many months), this article focuses on reliability and stability challenges on short timescales (microseconds to seconds). In other words, we seek to answer (to the extent that it is currently known) how to ensure the frequency and voltage stability in an island power system with very high instantaneous levels of wind and PVs. And because island power systems are often among the first to reach these very high instantaneous levels of wind and PV generation, we note that they are forging a path for larger interconnected power systems to follow.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Virtual Power Plants Reliably: Enabling tools for increased observability, controllability, operation, and aggregation of distributed energy resources

Harnessing virtual power plants enhances the integration of distributed energy resources into utility grids for a sustainable energy future. Virtual power plants (VPPs) aggregate DERs to enhance resource adequacy and reduce emissions. U.S. utilities are exploring various technologies to manage DERs effectively. FERC Order 2222 allows DERs to participate in both wholesale and retail markets. Enhancing observability and controllability of behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs is essential for reliable grid operations. A hierarchical control architecture can improve coordination among residential energy resources. Field tests showed nearly 20% energy savings and 30% peak power reduction during grid events. Effective management of DERs requires enhanced situational awareness to prevent grid congestion. Integrating DER management systems (DERMS) with existing planning tools can improve operational security. Near-real-time grid models can validate optimal resource set points against resource uncertainty. Traditional uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) can be upgraded to support grid services and become part of VPPs. Upgrading UPS systems can reduce costs by 75% and unlock significant battery capacity. New battery management systems and grid-aware controllers are essential for optimizing UPS performance. Continued research and development are necessary to address challenges in integrating DERs into utility grids. Encouraging customer participation in pilot programs is vital for the evolution of VPPs. Here, the shift towards price-responsive DERs and VPPs is expected to enhance energy distribution efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Artificial Intelligence to Improve Reliability and Operational Efficiency of Small-Scale Hydroelectric Distributed Generation

Reliability and resilience are critical concerns for distributed generation (DG) at the rural electric level. The integration of renewable energy sources, such as small-scale hydroelectric distributed generators (hydro DGs), introduces operational challenges, particularly regarding aging infrastructure and grid stability. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven Machine Learning (ML) models and applications of Large Language Models (LLMs) offer promising solutions for optimizing DG operations and enhancing resilience. This paper explores AI-based models for improving efficiency, fault resolution, and outage mitigation in small-scale hydro DGs. Furthermore, it highlights the development of a centralized, AI-powered information portal for rural electric cooperatives and municipalities. The research evaluates hydro DG plant models and discusses the applicability of AI-powered question-answering tools for real-time operations, focusing on statistical data, load flow, voltage regulation, and generation power. The findings demonstrate AI’s potential to transform DG management to ensure greater stability and resilience in rural electric grids.

Bhattacharyya, Arjun [ORNL] (ORCID:000900060976046↗