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NASA NTRS2004

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Impact of Scattering Model on Disdrometer Derived Attenuation Scaling

NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) are currently entering the third year of a joint propagation study in Milan, Italy utilizing the 20 and 40 GHz beacons of the Alphasat TDP5 Aldo Paraboni scientific payload. The Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers were installed at the POLIMI campus in June of 2014 and provide direct measurements of signal attenuation at each frequency. Collocated weather instrumentation provides concurrent measurement of atmospheric conditions at the receiver; included among these weather instruments is a Thies Clima Laser Precipitation Monitor (optical disdrometer) which records droplet size distributions (DSD) and droplet velocity distributions (DVD) during precipitation events. This information can be used to derive the specific attenuation at frequencies of interest and thereby scale measured attenuation data from one frequency to another. Given the ability to both predict the 40 GHz attenuation from the disdrometer and the 20 GHz timeseries as well as to directly measure the 40 GHz attenuation with the beacon receiver, the Milan terminal is uniquely able to assess these scaling techniques and refine the methods used to infer attenuation from disdrometer data.In order to derive specific attenuation from the DSD, the forward scattering coefficient must be computed. In previous work, this has been done using the Mie scattering model, however, this assumes a spherical droplet shape. The primary goal of this analysis is to assess the impact of the scattering model and droplet shape on disdrometer derived attenuation predictions by comparing the use of the Mie scattering model to the use of the T-matrix method, which does not assume a spherical droplet. In particular, this paper will investigate the impact of these two scattering approaches on the error of the resulting predictions as well as on the relationship between prediction error and rain rate.

statistics↗

NASA NTRS2023

Coronal Heating as Determined by the Solar Flare Frequency Distribution Obtained by Aggregating Case Studies

Flare frequency distributions represent a key approach to addressing one of the largest problems in solar and stellar physics: determining the mechanism that counterintuitively heats coronae to temperatures that are orders of magnitude hotter than the corresponding photospheres. It is widely accepted that the magnetic field is responsible for the heating, but there are two competing mechanisms that could explain it: nanoflares or Alfvén waves. To date, neither can be directly observed. Nanoflares are, by definition, extremely small, but their aggregate energy release could represent a substantial heating mechanism, presuming they are sufficiently abundant. One way to test this presumption is via the flare frequency distribution, which describes how often flares of various energies occur. If the slope of the power law fitting the flare frequency distribution is above a critical threshold, α = 2 as established in prior literature, then there should be a sufficient abundance of nanoflares to explain coronal heating. We performed >600 case studies of solar flares, made possible by an unprecedented number of data analysts via three semesters of an undergraduate physics laboratory course. This allowed us to include two crucial, but nontrivial, analysis methods: preflare baseline subtraction and computation of the flare energy, which requires determining flare start and stop times. We aggregated the results of these analyses into a statistical study to determine that α = 1.63 ± 0.03. This is below the critical threshold, suggesting that Alfvén waves are an important driver of coronal heating.

Astrostatistics distributions↗

NASA NTRS1994

Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST): User's Manual

The Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST) system is a formal method to assess advanced technologies and quantify the benefit contributions for prioritization. T/BEST may be used to provide guidelines to identify and prioritize high payoff research areas, help manage research and limited resources, show the link between advanced concepts and the bottom line, i.e., accrued benefit and value, and to communicate credibly the benefits of research. The T/BEST software computer program is specifically designed to estimating benefits, and benefit sensitivities, of introducing new technologies into existing propulsion systems. Key engine cycle, structural, fluid, mission and cost analysis modules are used to provide a framework for interfacing with advanced technologies. An open-ended, modular approach is used to allow for modification and addition of both key and advanced technology modules. T/BEST has a hierarchical framework that yields varying levels of benefit estimation accuracy that are dependent on the degree of input detail available. This hierarchical feature permits rapid estimation of technology benefits even when the technology is at the conceptual stage. As knowledge of the technology details increases the accuracy of the benefit analysis increases. Included in T/BEST's framework are correlations developed from a statistical data base that is relied upon if there is insufficient information given in a particular area, e.g., fuel capacity or aircraft landing weight. Statistical predictions are not required if these data are specified in the mission requirements. The engine cycle, structural fluid, cost, noise, and emissions analyses interact with the default or user material and component libraries to yield estimates of specific global benefits: range, speed, thrust, capacity, component life, noise, emissions, specific fuel consumption, component and engine weights, pre-certification test, mission performance engine cost, direct operating cost, life cycle cost, manufacturing cost, development cost, risk, and development time. Currently, T/BEST operates on stand-alone or networked workstations, and uses a UNIX shell or script to control the operation of interfaced FORTRAN based analyses. T/BEST's interface structure works equally well with non-FORTRAN or mixed software analysis. This interface structure is designed to maintain the integrity of the expert's analyses by interfacing with expert's existing input and output files. Parameter input and output data (e.g., number of blades, hub diameters, etc.) are passed via T/BEST's neutral file, while copious data (e.g., finite element models, profiles, etc.) are passed via file pointers that point to the expert's analyses output files. In order to make the communications between the T/BEST's neutral file and attached analyses codes simple, only two software commands, PUT and GET, are required. This simplicity permits easy access to all input and output variables contained within the neutral file. Both public domain and proprietary analyses codes may be attached with a minimal amount of effort, while maintaining full data and analysis integrity, and security. T/BESt's sotware framework, status, beginner-to-expert operation, interface architecture, analysis module addition, and key analysis modules are discussed. Representative examples of T/BEST benefit analyses are shown.

Generazio, Edward R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Considerations for the Design and Execution of NASA's Community Noise Surveys

The World Health Organization defines community noise as noise emitted from all sources apart from noise at an industrial workplace. Example sources include neighborhood and construction noise, noise from road and rail, and air traffic noise. In particular, overland supersonic flights have been banned in the United States since the 1970s based on data accumulated during the 1960s; the degree of reported annoyance from the resulting sonic booms was a key factor leading to the prohibition. In subsequent years, scientific and engineering understanding has led to the potential to produce low amplitude sonic booms, or ‘sonic thumps’, during supersonic flight through aircraft design choices. Aircraft manufacturers have expressed renewed interest in producing supersonic commercial aircraft, but without appropriate changes to regulation, only overseas routes can be traveled supersonically. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) will be flying the X-59 demonstrator aircraft in a series of community tests to begin in the 2024 fiscal year. In this presentation we provide some historical context for the current prohibitions on supersonic commercial flight. Using data collected during earlier NASA risk reduction tests, we demonstrate how generalized linear mixed models can be used to inform the functional dose-response response curve. Finally, we discuss some of the challenges in designing the future community studies and generalizing them to a nationally-representative dose-response curve. The study effort will be of national and international importance as the data and models prepared during the community tests will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in order to help noise regulators determine if supersonic flight will be permitted over land once again and at what demonstrable noise levels.

Nathan B Cruze↗

NASA NTRS2011

Molecular Dynamics Simulation of the Antiamoebin Ion Channel: Linking Structure and Conductance

Molecular dynamics simulations were carried out in order to ascertain which of the potential multimeric forms of the transmembrane peptaibol channel, antiamoebin, is consistant with its measured conductance. Estimates of the conductance obtained through counting ions that cross the channel and by solving the Nernst-Planck equation yield consistent results, indicating that the motion of ions inside the channel can be satisfactorily described as diffusive.The calculated conductance of octameric channels is markedly higher than the conductance measured in single channel recordings, whereas the tetramer appears to be non-conducting. The conductance of the hexamer was estimated to be 115+/-34 pS and 74+/-20 pS, at 150 mV and 75 mV, respectively, in satisfactory agreement with the value of 90 pS measured at 75 mV. On this basis we propose that the antiamoebin channel consists of six monomers. Its pore is large enough to accommodate K(+) and Cl(-) with their first solvation shells intact. The free energy barrier encountered by K(+) is only 2.2 kcal/mol whereas Cl(-) encounters a substantially higher barrier of nearly 5 kcal/mol. This difference makes the channel selective for cations. Ion crossing events are shown to be uncorrelated and follow Poisson statistics. keywords: ion channels, peptaibols, channel conductance, molecular dynamics

Wilson, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Downsampling Photodetector Array with Windowing

In a photon counting detector array, each pixel in the array produces an electrical pulse when an incident photon on that pixel is detected. Detection and demodulation of an optical communication signal that modulated the intensity of the optical signal requires counting the number of photon arrivals over a given interval. As the size of photon counting photodetector arrays increases, parallel processing of all the pixels exceeds the resources available in current application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) and gate array (GA) technology; the desire for a high fill factor in avalanche photodiode (APD) detector arrays also precludes this. Through the use of downsampling and windowing portions of the detector array, the processing is distributed between the ASIC and GA. This allows demodulation of the optical communication signal incident on a large photon counting detector array, as well as providing architecture amenable to algorithmic changes. The detector array readout ASIC functions as a parallel-to-serial converter, serializing the photodetector array output for subsequent processing. Additional downsampling functionality for each pixel is added to this ASIC. Due to the large number of pixels in the array, the readout time of the entire photodetector is greater than the time between photon arrivals; therefore, a downsampling pre-processing step is done in order to increase the time allowed for the readout to occur. Each pixel drives a small counter that is incremented at every detected photon arrival or, equivalently, the charge in a storage capacitor is incremented. At the end of a user-configurable counting period (calculated independently from the ASIC), the counters are sampled and cleared. This downsampled photon count information is then sent one counter word at a time to the GA. For a large array, processing even the downsampled pixel counts exceeds the capabilities of the GA. Windowing of the array, whereby several subsets of pixels are designated for processing, is used to further reduce the computational requirements. The grouping of the designated pixel frame as the photon count information is sent one word at a time to the GA, the aggregation of the pixels in a window can be achieved by selecting only the designated pixel counts from the serial stream of photon counts, thereby obviating the need to store the entire frame of pixel count in the gate array. The pixel count se quence from each window can then be processed, forming lower-rate pixel statistics for each window. By having this processing occur in the GA rather than in the ASIC, future changes to the processing algorithm can be readily implemented. The high-bandwidth requirements of a photon counting array combined with the properties of the optical modulation being detected by the array present a unique problem that has not been addressed by current CCD or CMOS sensor array solutions.

Patawaran, Ferze D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Radiation Quality Effects on Transcriptome Profiles in 3-d Cultures After Particle Irradiation

In this work, we evaluate the differential effects of low- and high-LET radiation on 3-D organotypic cultures in order to investigate radiation quality impacts on gene expression and cellular responses. Reducing uncertainties in current risk models requires new knowledge on the fundamental differences in biological responses (the so-called radiation quality effects) triggered by heavy ion particle radiation versus low-LET radiation associated with Earth-based exposures. We are utilizing novel 3-D organotypic human tissue models that provide a format for study of human cells within a realistic tissue framework, thereby bridging the gap between 2-D monolayer culture and animal models for risk extrapolation to humans. To identify biological pathway signatures unique to heavy ion particle exposure, functional gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was used with whole transcriptome profiling. GSEA has been used extensively as a method to garner biological information in a variety of model systems but has not been commonly used to analyze radiation effects. It is a powerful approach for assessing the functional significance of radiation quality-dependent changes from datasets where the changes are subtle but broad, and where single gene based analysis using rankings of fold-change may not reveal important biological information. We identified 45 statistically significant gene sets at 0.05 q-value cutoff, including 14 gene sets common to gamma and titanium irradiation, 19 gene sets specific to gamma irradiation, and 12 titanium-specific gene sets. Common gene sets largely align with DNA damage, cell cycle, early immune response, and inflammatory cytokine pathway activation. The top gene set enriched for the gamma- and titanium-irradiated samples involved KRAS pathway activation and genes activated in TNF-treated cells, respectively. Another difference noted for the high-LET samples was an apparent enrichment in gene sets involved in cycle cycle/mitotic control. It is plausible that the enrichment in these particular pathways results from the complex DNA damage resulting from high-LET exposure where repair processes are not completed during the same time scale as the less complex damage resulting from low-LET radiation.

Patel, Z. S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exoplanet Yield Sensitivity for the Hybrid Lyot Coronagraph from end-to-end modeling for LUVOIR-A

NASA's future direct imaging flagship mission will require telescope mirror segmentation to survey a statistically significant population of nearby stellar systems by increasing aperture size beyond that achieved by traditional space-borne monolithic apertures thus far. Segmentation is a path for the size expansion, but it entails a challenge due to the introduction of temporal pupil discontinuities in terms of both phase and amplitude. Modeling of the integrated performance of the coronagraph with the expected dynamical profile of the telescope is an important step toward realistic estimates of the mission's science yields. We present results of a study using the hybrid Lyot coronagraph with a 15-m on-axis, segmented optical telescope assembly (OTA), akin to that of the Large UV / Optical /Infrared (LUVOIR) mission. We have developed a high-fidelity, end-to-end model as part of the Segmented Coronagraph Design and Analysis (SCDA) study that includes diffractive optical propagations at the 1e-10 contrast level across the optical train including the OTA and intermediate re-imaging optics inside the coronagraph instrument. We perform a sensitivity analysis to assess the contrast sensitivity to wavefront perturbations for a set of key telescope terms including segment-level low-order and mid-spatial frequency aberrations and evaluate expected exoplanet yields obtained in the presence of these sets of aberrations. Industry-provided segment-level wavefront aberration datasets involving the following mechanisms are input to the end-to-end model: (1) thermal gradients and accelerations, and (2) telescope dynamics including line-of-sight and segment jitter. Dynamically averaged PSFs in the presence of aberrations are fed into AYO (Altruistic Yield Optimization), a mission design reference simulator, that then assesses the scientific yield sensitivities.

high-contrast imaging↗

NASA NTRS2016

Impact of Scattering Model on Disdrometer Derived Attenuation Scaling

NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) are currently entering the third year of a joint propagation study in Milan, Italy utilizing the 20 and 40 GHz beacons of the Alphasat TDP#5 Aldo Paraboni scientific payload. The Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers were installed at the POLIMI campus in June of 2014 and provide direct measurements of signal attenuation at each frequency. Collocated weather instrumentation provides concurrent measurement of atmospheric conditions at the receiver; included among these weather instruments is a Thies Clima Laser Precipitation Monitor (optical disdrometer) which records droplet size distributions (DSD) and droplet velocity distributions (DVD) during precipitation events. This information can be used to derive the specific attenuation at frequencies of interest and thereby scale measured attenuation data from one frequency to another. Given the ability to both predict the 40 gigahertz attenuation from the disdrometer and the 20 gigahertz time-series as well as to directly measure the 40 gigahertz attenuation with the beacon receiver, the Milan terminal is uniquely able to assess these scaling techniques and refine the methods used to infer attenuation from disdrometer data. In order to derive specific attenuation from the DSD, the forward scattering coefficient must be computed. In previous work, this has been done using the Mie scattering model, however, this assumes a spherical droplet shape. The primary goal of this analysis is to assess the impact of the scattering model and droplet shape on disdrometer-derived attenuation predictions by comparing the use of the Mie scattering model to the use of the T-matrix method, which does not assume a spherical droplet. In particular, this paper will investigate the impact of these two scattering approaches on the error of the resulting predictions as well as on the relationship between prediction error and rain rate.

Radio Transmission↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development of NASA's Accident Precursor Analysis Process Through Application on the Space Shuttle Orbiter

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system. APA docs more than simply track experience: it systematically evaluates experience, looking for under-appreciated risks that may warrant changes to design or operational practice. This paper presents the pilot application of the NASA APA process to Space Shuttle Orbiter systems. In this effort, the working sessions conducted at Johnson Space Center (JSC) piloted the APA process developed by Information Systems Laboratories (ISL) over the last two years under the auspices of NASA's Office of Safety & Mission Assurance, with the assistance of the Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Shuttle & Exploration Analysis Branch. This process is built around facilitated working sessions involving diverse system experts. One important aspect of this particular APA process is its focus on understanding the physical mechanism responsible for an operational anomaly, followed by evaluation of the risk significance of the observed anomaly as well as consideration of generalizations of the underlying mechanism to other contexts. Model completeness will probably always be an issue, but this process tries to leverage operating experience to the extent possible in order to address completeness issues before a catastrophe occurs.

Maggio, Gaspare↗

NASA NTRS2003

Vector-Ordering Filter Procedure for Data Reduction

The vector-ordering filter (VOF) technique involves a procedure for sampling a large population of data vectors to select a subset of data vectors that fully characterize the state space of the large population. The VOF technique enables a large reduction of the volume of data that must be handled in the automated monitoring system and method discussed in the two immediately preceding articles. In so doing, the VOF technique enables the development of data-driven mathematical models of a monitored asset from sets of data that would otherwise exceed the memory capacities of conventional engineering computers. Data-driven mathematical models have been shown to offer high fidelity for purposes of control and monitoring of assets. In practice, a collection of asset-operating observations is acquired with the intention that the collection contain observations characteristic of the full dynamic range of operation of the asset. Often, such a collection contains an extremely large number of observations, many of which are redundant. The VOF technique fills the need for a means to extract, from the original collection of observational data, a reduced data matrix that excludes redundant data while maintaining the full statistical character and dynamic range of the original data. The reduced data matrix can then be used as the input data for development of a mathematical model of the monitored asset, or as training data for a neural-network substitute for an explicit mathematical model of the asset. Alternatively, the reduced data matrix can, itself, be used directly as a mathematical model of the monitored asset, as is commonly done in multivariate state-estimation techniques. The original data are collected from the asset over a range of operating states and are put in matrix form. Each column vector in the original data matrix represents the signal values acquired at a particular operational state of the asset. Thus, the number of columns of the original data matrix equals the number of observed states and the number of rows in this matrix equals the number of signals acquired at each observation. In the VOF technique, one extracts the reduced data matrix from the original data matrix through the selection of a representative subset of the column (state) vectors.

Bickford, Randall L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Exploring EUV Spicules Using 304 Angstrom He II Data from SDO AIA

We present results from a statistical study of He II 304 Angstrom Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules at the limb of the Sun. We also measured properties of one macrospicule; macrospicules are longer than most spicules, and much broader in width than spicules. We use high-cadence (12 second) and high-resolution (0.6 arcseconds pixels) resolution data from the Atmospheric Imaging Array (AIA) instrument on the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). All of the observed events occurred near the solar north pole, where quiet Sun or coronal hole environments ensued. We examined the maximum lengths, maximum rise velocities, and lifetimes of 33 Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules and the macrospicule. For the bulk of the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules these quantities are, respectively, approximately 10,000-40,000 kilometers, 20-100 kilometers per second, and approximately 100- approximately 1000 seconds. For the macrospicule the corresponding quantities were respectively approximately 60,000 kilometers, approximately 130 kilometers per second, approximately 1800 seconds, which is typical of macrospicules measured by other workers. Therefore macrospicules are taller, longer-lived, and faster than most Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules. The rise profiles of both the spicules and the macrospicules match well a second-order ("parabolic" ) trajectory, although the acceleration was often weaker than that of solar gravity in the profiles fitted to the trajectories. Our macrospicule also had an obvious brightening at its base at birth, while such brightening was not apparent for the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules. Most of the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules remained visible during their descent back to the solar surface, although a small percentage of the spicules and the macrospicule faded out before falling back to the surface. Our sample of macrospicules is not yet large enough to determine whether their initiation mechanism is identical to that of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules.

spicules↗

NASA NTRS1995

Deep ROSAT HRI observations of the Orion nebula region

We present results from three deep ROSAT high-resolution imager observations of the Orion Nebula star-forming region. The X-ray images contain over 1500 cataloged stars in a roughly 0.8 sq deg region centered on the Trapezium. In all, 389 distinct X-ray sources have been detected, at least two-thirds of which are associated with a single proper-motion cluster member. X-ray emission is detected from stars of all spectral types, from massive O- and B-type components of the Trapezium to the coolest, low-mass pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars. In this paper we focus primarily on X-ray emission from the late-type PMS stars. Of the approximately 100 late-type cluster members with measured spectral types, approximately three-fourths have been detected; we have derived X-ray luminosity upper limits for the remaining stars. We found coronal X-ray emission turns on around spectral type F6, with the upper envelope of activity increasing with deceasing effective temperature. When plotted in an X-ray luminosity versus bolometric luminosity diagram, late-type PMS stars lie below a 'saturation' line corresponding to L(sub x)/L(sub bol) approximately 10(exp -3). For approximately solar-mass PMS stars, we find a median X-ray luminosity approximately 1 x 10(exp 30) ergs/s. The late G, K, and M stars exhibit nearly a two order of magnitude spread in X-ray luminosity and in L(sub x)/L(sub bol) at a given effective temperature. Plots of X-ray activity versus v sin i rotational velocity and rotational period appear to show no clear dependence of activity on rotation. However, because only a small fraction of late-type PMS stars in the Orion Nebula have measured v sin i or P(sub rot) and because of uncertainties in L(sub x) and L(sub x)/L(sub bol), we believe the data are not conclusive on this point. Light curves of the detected X-ray sources have revealed at least 10 strong X-ray flares with characteristic rise times greater than or approximately equal to 1 hr and decay times ranging from approximately 2 to 12 hr. All the flares have X-ray energies in excess of 3 x 10(exp 35) ergs. Many of the X-ray sources associated with late-type cluster members have been observed in more than one ROSAT HRI exposure, allowing us to look for variability on the approximately 1 yr timescale between HRI observations. A statistical analysis of the resulting count rate ratios suggests that at least one-fourth of the late-type cluster stars are significantly variable on this timescale.

Gagne, Marc↗

NASA NTRS1999

X-Ray Diffraction Techniques for a Field Instrument: Patterns of Lithologic Provences

Future exploration of Mars will attempt to shed light on the mineralogy of surface materials. Instruments deployed from remote platforms should have the capability to conduct both intensive analyses as well as rapid, reconnaissance surveys while they function in the martian environment as surrogate geologists. In order to accommodate the reconnaissance mode of analysis and to compensate for analytical limitations imposed by the space-flight conditions, data analysis methods are being developed that will permit interpretation of data by recognition of signatures or "fingerprints". Specifically, we are developing a technique which will allow interpretation of diffraction patterns by recognition of characteristic signatures of different lithologic provences. This technique allows a remote vehicle to function in a rapid-scan mode using the lithologic signature to determine where a more thorough analysis is needed. An x-ray diffraction pattern is characterized by the angular positions of diffracted x-rays, x-ray intensity levels and background radiation levels. These elements may be used to identify a generalized x-ray signature. Lithologic signatures are being developed in two ways. A signature is composed using the ideal powder diffraction indices from the mineral assembledge common to a specific lithologic provence. This is then confirmed using a laboratory diffraction pattern of a whole rock powder. Preliminary results comparing the diffraction signatures of the major mineral assembledges common to basalt, carbonate, and evaporite basin deposits indicate that lithologies are differentiable as a "fingerprint". Statistical analyses are being performed to establish the confidence levels of this technique.

Marshall, J.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Precision Measurement of Black Hole Binary Dynamics: Analyzing the LISA Data Stream

One of the richest potential sources of insight into fundamental physics that LISA will be capable of observing is the inspiral of supermassive black hole binaries (BHBs). However, the data analysis challenge presented by the LISA data stream is quite unlike the situation for present day gravitational wave detectors. In order to make the precision measurements necessary to achieve LISA's science goals, the BHB signal must be distinguished from a data stream that not only contains instrumental noise, but potentially thousands of other signals as well, so that the "background" we wish to separate out to focus on the BHB signal is likely to be highly nonstationary and nongaussian, as well as being of scientific interest in its own right. In addition, whereas the theoretical templates that we calculate in order to ultimately estimate the parameters can afford to be somewhat inaccurate and still be effective for present day and near future detectors, this is not the case for LISA, and extremely high fidelity of the theoretical templates for high signal-to-noise signals will be required to prevent theoretical errors from dominating the parameter estimates. NVe, will describe efforts in the community of LISA data analysts to address the challenges regarding the specific issue of BHB signals. These efforts include using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with the freedom to model the BHB and the other signals present in the data stream simultaneously, rather than trying to remove other signals and risk biasing the remaining data. The Mock LISA Data Challenge is a community of LISA scientists who generate rounds of simulated LISA noise with increasingly difficult signal content, and invite the LISA data analysis community to exercise their methods, or develop new methods, in an attempt to extract the parameters for the signals embedded in the mock data. In addition to practical approaches such ,is this to assess the level of parameter accuracy, one can apply the Fisher matrix formalism to assess both the statistical errors from noise and the theoretical errors

McWilliams, Sean T.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Measuring Shock Stage of ltokawa Regolith Grains by Electron Back-Scattered Diffraction and Synchrotron X-Ray Diffraction

We have been analyzing Itokawa samples in order to definitively establish the degree of shock experienced by the regolith of asteroid Itokawa, and to devise a bridge between shock determinations by standard light optical petrography, crystal structures as determined by electron and X-ray diffraction techniques. We are making measurements of olivine crystal structures and using these to elucidate critical regolith impact processes. We use electron back-scattered diffraction (EBSD) and synchrotron X-ray diffraction (SXRD). We are comparing the Itokawa samples to L and LL chondrite meteorites chosen to span the shock scale experienced by Itokawa, specifically Chainpur (LL3.4, Shock Stage 1), Semarkona (LL3.00, S2), Kilabo (LL6, S3), NWA100 (L6, S4) and Chelyabinsk (LL5, S4). In SXRD we measure the line broadening of olivine reflections as a measure of shock stage. In this presentation we concentrate on the EBSD work. We employed JSC's Supra 55 variable pressure FEG-SEM and Bruker EBSD system. We are not seeking actual strain values, but rather indirect strain-related measurements such as extent of intra-grain lattice rotation, and determining whether shock state "standards" (meteorite samples of accepted shock state, and appropriate small grain size) show strain measurements that may be statistically differentiated, using a sampling of particles (number and size range) typical of asteroid regoliths. Using our system we determined that a column pressure of 9 Pa and no C-coating on the sample was optimal. We varied camera exposure time and gain to optimize mapping performance, concluding that 320x240 pattern pixilation, frame averaging of 3, 15 kV, and low extractor voltage yielded an acceptable balance of hit rate (>90%), speed (11 fps) and map quality using an exposure time of 30 ms (gain 650). We found that there was no strong effect of step size on Grain Orientation Spread (GOS) and Grain Reference Orientation Deviation angle (GROD-a) distribution; there was some effect on grain average Kernel Average Misorientation (KAM) (reduced with smaller step size for the same grain), as expected. We monitored GOS, Maximum Orientation Spread (MOS) and GROD-a differences between whole olivine grains and sub-sampled areas, and found that there were significant differences between the whole grain dataset and subsets, as well as between subsets, likely due to sampling-related "noise". Also, in general (and logically) whole grains exhibit greater degrees of cumulative lattice rotation. Sampling size affects the apparent strain character of the grain, at least as measured by GOS, MOS and GROD-a. There were differences in the distribution frequencies of GOS and MOS between shock stages, and in plots of MOS and GOS vs. grain diameter. These results are generally consistent with those reported this year. However, it is unknown whether the differences between samples of different shock states exceeds the clustering of these values to the extent that shock stage determinations can still be made with confidence. We are investigating this by examination of meteorites with higher shock stage 4 to 5. Our research will improve our understanding of how small, primitive solar system bodies formed and evolved, and improve understanding of the processes that determine the history and future of habitability of environments on other solar system bodies. The results will directly enrich the ongoing asteroid and comet exploration missions by NASA and JAXA, and broaden our understanding of the origin and evolution of small bodies in the early solar system, and elucidate the nature of asteroid and comet regolith.

Zolensky, Michael↗