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Economic Conditions and Factors Affecting New Nuclear Power Deployment

This report documents work performed in support of the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (AdvSMR) program. The report presents information and results from economic analyses to describe current electricity market conditions and those key factors that may impact the deployment of AdvSMRs or any other new nuclear power plants. Thus, this report serves as a reference document for DOE as it moves forward with its plans to develop advanced reactors, including AdvSMRs. For the purpose of this analysis, information on electricity markets and nuclear power plant operating costs will be combined to examine the current state of the nuclear industry and the process required to successfully move forward with new nuclear power in general and AdvSMRs in particular. The current electricity market is generally unfavorable to new nuclear construction, especially in deregulated markets with heavy competition from natural gas and subsidized renewables. The successful and profitable operation of a nuclear power plant (or any power plant) requires the rate at which the electricity is sold to be sufficiently greater than the cost to operate. The wholesale rates in most US markets have settled into values that provide profits for most operating nuclear power plants but are too low to support the added cost of capital recovery for new nuclear construction. There is a strong geographic dependence on the wholesale rate, with some markets currently able to support new nuclear construction. However, there is also a strong geographic dependence on pronuclear public opinion; the areas where power prices are high tend to have unfavorable views on the construction of new nuclear power plants. The use of government-backed incentives, such as subsidies, can help provide a margin to help justify construction projects that otherwise may not seem viable. Similarly, low interest rates for the project will also add a positive margin to the economic analysis. In both cases, the profitable price point is decreased, making more markets open to profitable entry. Overall, the economic attractiveness of a nuclear power construction project is not only a function of its own costs, but a function of the market into which it is deployed. Many of the market characteristics are out of the control of the potential nuclear power plant operators. The decision-making process for the power industry in general is complicated by the short-term market volatility in both the wholesale electricity market and the commodity (natural gas) market. Decisions based on market conditions today may be rendered null and void in six months. With a multiple-year lead time, nuclear power plants are acutely vulnerable to market corrections.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Search for Muon Neutrino Disappearance in the Booster Neutrino Beam of Fermilab; Busqueda de Desaparicion de Neutrinos del Muon en el Haz de Neutrinos del Booster de Fermilab

In this work we carried out the disappearance analysis of muon neutrinos produced in the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam, using the data released to the public by the collaborations of the MiniBooNE and SciBooNE experiments. The calculations were made with programs in C and C++, implementing the ROOT libraries. From the analysis, using both the classical Pearson method and the Feldman and Cousins frequentist corrections, we obtained the 90\% C.L. limit for the oscillation parameters sin 2 2θ and Δm 2 in the region 0.1 ≤ Δm 2 ≤ 10 eV 2 using a two neutrino model. The result presented in this work is consistent with the official one, with small deviations ascribed to round-off errors in the format of the used data, as well as statistical fluctuations in the generation of fake experiments used in the Feldman and Cousins method. As the official one, our result is consistent with the null oscillation hypothesis. This work was carried out independently to the MiniBooNE and SciBooNE collaborations and its results are not official.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Sterile Neutrino Searches in MINOS/MINOS+ Experiment

This dissertation presents the searches on sterile neutrinos using the data collected in MINOS+ Experiment from September 2013 to September 2014, and the full data set of MINOS Experiment collected from 2005 to 2012. Anomalies in short baseline experiments, such as LSND and MiniBooNE, showed hints of sterile neutrinos, a type of neutrino that does not interact with the Standard Model particles. In this work, two models are considered: 3+1 and large extra dimension (LED). In the 3+1 model, one sterile neutrino state is added into the standard oscillation scheme consisting of three known active neutrino states $\nu_e$, $\nu_\mu$ and $\nu_\tau$. In the LED model, sterile neutrinos arise as Kaluza-Klein (KK) states due to assumed large extra dimensions. Mixing between sterile and active neutrino states may modify the oscillation patterns observed in the MINOS detectors. Both searches yield null results. For 3+1, a combined fit of MINOS and MINOS+ data gives a stronger limit on $\theta_{24}$ in the range of $10^{-2}\text{ eV}^2 < \Delta m^2_{41} < 1\text{ eV}^2$ than previous experiments. For LED, with the complete MINOS data set, the size of extra dimensions is constrained to be smaller than $\sim 0.35\ \mu\text{m}$ at 90\% C.L. in the limit of a vanishing lightest neutrino mass.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

An In-Depth Analysis of the Chung-Lu Model

In the classic Erd}os R enyi random graph model [5] each edge is chosen with uniform probability and the degree distribution is binomial, limiting the number of graphs that can be modeled using the Erd}os R enyi framework [10]. The Chung-Lu model [1, 2, 3] is an extension of the Erd}os R enyi model that allows for more general degree distributions. The probability of each edge is no longer uniform and is a function of a user-supplied degree sequence, which by design is the expected degree sequence of the model. This property makes it an easy model to work with theoretically and since the Chung-Lu model is a special case of a random graph model with a given degree sequence, many of its properties are well known and have been studied extensively [2, 3, 13, 8, 9]. It is also an attractive null model for many real-world networks, particularly those with power-law degree distributions and it is sometimes used as a benchmark for comparison with other graph generators despite some of its limitations [12, 11]. We know for example, that the average clustering coe cient is too low relative to most real world networks. As well, measures of a nity are also too low relative to most real-world networks of interest. However, despite these limitations or perhaps because of them, the Chung-Lu model provides a basis for comparing new graph models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ratcheting Up The Search for Dark Matter

The last several years have included remarkable advances in two of the primary areas of fundamental particle physics: the search for dark matter and the discovery of the Higgs boson. This dissertation will highlight some contributions made on the forefront of these exciting fields. Although the circumstantial evidence supporting the dark matter hypothesis is now almost undeniably significant, indisputable direct proof is still lacking. As the direct searches for dark matter continue, we can maximize our prospects of discovery by using theoretical techniques complementary to the observational searches to rule out additional, otherwise accessible parameter space. In this dissertation, I report bounds on a wide range of dark matter theories. The models considered here cover the spectrum from the canonical case of self-conjugate dark matter with weak-scale interactions, to electrically charged dark matter, to non-annihilating, non-fermionic dark matter. These bounds are obtained from considerations of astrophysical and cosmological data, including, respectively: diffuse gamma ray photon observations; structure formation considerations, along with an explication of the novel local dark matter structure due to galactic astrophysics; and the existence of old pulsars in dark-matter-rich environments. I also consider the prospects for a model of neutrino dark matter which has been motivated by a wide set of seemingly contradictory experimental results. In addition, I include a study that provides the tools to begin solving the speculative ``inverse'' problem of extracting dark matter properties solely from hypothetical nuclear energy spectra, which we may face if dark matter is discovered with multiple direct detection experiments. In contrast to the null searches for dark matter, we have the example of the recent discovery of the Higgs boson. The Higgs boson is the first fundamental scalar particle ever observed, and precision measurements of the production and decay of the Higgs boson represent a unique entry p! oint to searches for new kinds of physics. Continuing to refine our understanding of the Higgs boson will also allow us to learn about a vast array of possible new physics. This dissertation includes work parameterizing some of the scenarios that are most likely to be discovered with future Higgs data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

EMAPS: An Efficient Multiscale Approach to Plasma Systems with Non-MHD Scale Effects

Global interactions of energetic ions with magnetoplasmas and neutral gases lie at the core of many space and laboratory plasma phenomena ranging from solar wind entry into and transport within planetary magnetospheres and exospheres to fast-ion driven instabilities in fusion devices to astrophysics-in-lab experiments. The ability of computational models to properly account for physical effects that underlie such interactions, namely ion kinetic, ion cyclotron, Hall, collisional and ionization processes is important for the success and planning of experimental research in plasma physics. Understanding the physics of energetic ions, in particular their nonlinear resonance interactions with Alfvén waves, is central to improving the heating performance of magnetically confined plasmas for future energy generation. Fluid models are not adequate for high-beta plasmas as they cannot fully capture ion kinetic and cyclotron physics (e.g., ion behavior in the presence of magnetic nulls, shock structures, plasma interpenetration, etc.). Recent results from global reconnection simulations show that even in a MHD-like regime there may be significant differences between kinetic and MHD simulations. Therefore, kinetic modeling becomes essential for meeting modern day challenges in plasma physics. The hybrid approximation is an intermediate approximation between the fluid and fully kinetic approximations. It eliminates light waves, removes the electron inertial temporal and spatial scales from the problem and enables full-orbit ion kinetics. As a result, hybrid codes have become effective tools for exploring ion-scale driven phenomena associated with ion beams, shocks, reconnection and turbulence that control the large-scale behavior of laboratory and space magnetoplasmas. A number of numerical issues, however, make three-dimensional (3D) large-scale hybrid simulations of inhomogeneous magnetized plasmas prohibitively expensive or even impossible. To resolve these difficulties we have developed a novel Event-driven Multiscale Asynchronous Parallel Simulation (EMAPS) technology that replaces time stepping with self-adaptive update events. Local calculations are carried out only on an “as needed basis”. EMAPS (i) guarantees accurate and stable processing of physical variables in time accurate simulations, and (ii) eliminates unnecessary computation. Applying EMAPS to the hybrid model has resulted in the development of a unique parallel code, dimension-independent (compile-time-configurable) HYPERS (Hybrid Parallel Event-Resolved Simulator) that scales to hundreds of thousands of parallel processors. HYPERS advances electromagnetic fields and particles asynchronously on time scales determined by local physical laws and mesh properties. To achieve high computational accuracy in complex device geometries, HYPERS employs high-fidelity Cartesian grids with masked conductive cells. The HYPERS model includes multiple ion species, energy and momentum conserving ion-ion collisions, and provides a number of approximations for plasma resistivity and vacuum regions. Both local and periodic boundary conditions are allowed. The HYPERS solver preserves zero divergence of magnetic field. The project has demonstrated HYPERS capabilities on a number of applications of interest to fusion and astrophysical plasma physics applications listed below. 1. Theta-pinch formation of FRCs The formation, spontaneous spin-up, and stability of theta-pinch formed field-reversed configurations have been studied self-consistently in 3D. The end-to-end hybrid simulations reveal poloidal profiles of implosion-driven fast toroidal plasma rotation and demonstrate three discharge regimes as a function of experimental parameters: the decaying stable configuration, the tilt unstable configuration, and the nonlinear evolution of a fast growing tearing mode. 2. FRC collisions with magnetic mirrors Interactions of fast plasma streams and objects with magnetic obstacles (dipoles, mirrors, etc) lie at the core of many space and laboratory plasma phenomena ranging from magnetoshells and solar wind interactions with planetary magnetospheres to compact fusion plasmas. HYPERS simulations are compared with data from the MSX experiment (LANL) that focuses on the physics of magnetized collisionless shocks through the acceleration and subsequent stagnation of FRC plasmoids against a strong magnetic mirrors and flux-conserving boundaries. 3. Exploding magnetoplasmas Results from hybrid simulations of two experiments at the LAPD and Nevada Terawatt Facility are discussed where short-pulse lasers are used to ablate solid targets to produce plasmas that expand across external magnetic fields. The first simulation recreates flutelike density striations observed at the leading edge of a carbon plasma and predicts an early destruction of the magnetic cavity in agreement with experimental evidence. In the second simulation a polyethylene target is ablated into a mixture of protons and carbon ions. A mechanism is demonstrated that allows protons to penetrate the magnetic field in the form of a collimated flow. The results are compared to experimental data and single-fluid MHD simulations. The EMAPS framework has the potential for wide application in many other engineering and scientific fields, such as climate models, biological systems, electronic devices, seismic events, oil reservation simulators that all involve advancing solutions of partial differential equations in time where the rate of activity can be adapted widely over the spatial domain depending on locally space/time phenomena (“events”).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Higgs and Supersymmetry at Run II of the LHC

Prof. David Shih was supported by DOE grant DE-SC0013678 from April 2015 to April 2016. His research during this year focused on the phenomenology of super-symmetry (SUSY) and maximizing its future discovery potential at Run II of the LHC. SUSY is one of the most well-motivated frameworks for physics beyond the Standard Model. It solves the "naturalness" or "hierarchy" problem by stabilizing the Higgs mass against otherwise uncontrolled quantum corrections, predicts "grand unification" of the fundamental forces, and provides many potential candidates for dark matter. However, after decades of null results from direct and indirect searches, the viable parameter space for SUSY is increasingly constrained. Also, the discovery of a Standard Model-like Higgs with a mass at 125 GeV places a stringent constraint on SUSY models. In the work supported on this grant, Shih has worked on four different projects motivated by these issues. He has built natural SUSY models that explain the Higgs mass and provide viable dark matter; he has studied the parameter space of "gauge mediated supersymmetry breaking" (GMSB) that satisfies the Higgs mass constraint; he has developed new tools for the precision calculation of flavor and CP observables in general SUSY models; and he has studied new techniques for discovery of supersymmetric partners of the top quark.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Investigation into Practical Implementations of a Zero Knowledge Protocol.

In recent years, the concept of Zero Knowledge Protocols (ZKP) as a useful approach to nuclear warhead verification has become increasingly popular. Several implementations of ZKP have been proposed, driving technology development toward proof of concept demonstrations. Whereas proposed implementations seem to fall within the general class of template-based techniques, all physical implementations of ZKPs proposed to date have a complication: once the instrumentation is prepared, it is no longer authenticatable; the instrument physically contains sensitive information. In this work we explore three different concepts that may offer more authenticatable and practical ZKP implementations and evaluate the sensitive information that may be at risk when doing so: sharing a subset of detector counts in a preloaded image (with spatial information removed), real-time image subtraction, and a new concept, CONfirmation using a Fast-neutron Imaging Detector with Anti-image NULL-positive Time Encoding (CONFIDANTE). CONFIDANTE promises to offer an almost ideal implementation of ZKP: a positive result is indicated by a constant rate at all times enabling the monitoring party the possibility of full access to the instrument before, during, and after confirmation. A prototype of CONFIDANTE was designed, built, and its performance evaluated in a series of measurements of several objects including a set of plutonium dioxide Hemispheres. Very encouraging results proving feasibility are presented. 1 Rebecca is currently a graduate student in Nuclear Engineering at UC Berkeley

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Systematic Error Study for ALICE charged-jet v2 Measurement

We study the treatment of systematic errors in the determination of v 2 for charged jets in √ sNN = 2:76 TeV Pb-Pb collisions by the ALICE Collaboration. Working with the reported values and errors for the 0-5% centrality data we evaluate the Χ 2 according to the formulas given for the statistical and systematic errors, where the latter are separated into correlated and shape contributions. We reproduce both the Χ 2 and p-values relative to a null (zero) result. We then re-cast the systematic errors into an equivalent co-variance matrix and obtain identical results, demonstrating that the two methods are equivalent.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Decoupling Superconducting Qubits from the Quantum Bus/Readout Resonator to Enable Scaling

Superconducting qubits have made great strides in coherence time, gating, and algorithms. However, to achieve real scalability, more is required. We propose to study the problem of coupling and decoupling a transmon, a popular type of superconducting qubit, from its host resonator, which serves the dual role of a bus connecting qubits together and a readout channel. The transmon couples to its host resonator via its electric-dipole moment. We plan to use a trick of quantum mechanics to null the dipole moment and decouple the transmon. In doing so, we hope to study a variety of physics associated with multi-qubit operation, control, and readout.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Collaborative Research: The evolution of magnetic skeletons during 3D magnetic reconnection. Final Technical Report

The goals of this project were to investigate magnetic field evolution during 3D magnetic reconnection; begin development of an open source Python package for plasma research and education; advise students on research projects related to magnetic reconnection; and organize a conference session on diversity, equity, and inclusion in plasma physics. The principal investigator advanced an analytical theory to describe the ideal and non-ideal motion of the magnetic field lines that connect two magnetic null points; led development of the PlasmaPy package through version 0.2.0; directly advised two students; and is co-organizing a town hall on diversity, equity, and inclusion at a major plasma physics conference.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Aftershocks of a Chemical Explosion in Granite from the Source Physics Experiment Phase I

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a multiphase experiment to better understand explosion source physics and thereby improve explosion monitoring. The rst phase (Phase I) examined the explosion source in a hard-rock medium and took place in a granite outcrop called the Climax Stock section of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). This series of chemical explosions are called the Wet Granite Geology (WGG) events, but are usually referred to simply as the SPE events (i.e., SPE-1, SPE-2, etc.). Event information for the chemical explosions is given in Table 1. The study of explosion aftershocks can aid in understanding of in-situ stresses and be used as a discriminant for earthquakes [Ford and Walter, 2010]. Sweeney and Harben reported no observed aftershocks for SPE-1 and -2, respectively. They calculated a minimum magnitude of observation based on the noise oor of the seismic array and predicted at least one or two events in the week after the events using the hard-rock aftershock model from Ford and Labak. Possible explanations for the null observation ranged from instrumental - poor seismometer coupling, to physical - the shallow depth of burial was unable to access the deep tectonic stress that causes some explosion aftershocks. We extend the analysis of Sweeney and Harben to the largest of the SPE Phase I chemical explosions, SPE-5, which was approximately a 5 tonne TNT-equivalent shot at 76.5 m depth. This event registered as an M L 2 on the University of Nevada, Reno seismic network and should produce a measurable aftershock sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Leveraging the Higgs to Discover Physics Beyond the Standard Model (Final Technical Report)

The discovery of an apparently Standard Model-like Higgs at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) heralds the start of a new era in particle physics. While the Higgs marks the completion of the Standard Model framework, it offers far more opportunities in the search for physics beyond the Standard Model. The Higgs boson raises a pressing theoretical problem known as the hierarchy problem: why is an elementary scalar particle so light when quantum corrections tie its mass to the highest energy scales? The Higgs also provides an unprecedented experimental opportunity as a bellwether of new physics: it may be merely the first of several states in the electroweak symmetry breaking sector, while its production and decays may provide unique evidence for additional particles. Research supported by this award leveraged the Higgs boson to explore new physics from both directions, developing novel approaches to solving the hierarchy problem posed by the Higgs boson and directly employing the Higgs as a new tool for discovery. Given that null results at the LHC and other experiments have begun to endanger conventional approaches to the hierarchy problem, research supported by the award identified original solutions to the hierarchy problem wherein the lightest degrees of freedom protecting the Higgs boson carry no Standard Model quantum numbers and thus evade existing searches. The PI's approach combined standard tools of quantum field theory with novel applications of the orbifold reduction of continuous symmetries to define the framework of "neutral naturalness'' and explore its experimental consequences across the energy, intensity, and cosmic frontiers. In employing the Higgs directly as a tool for discovery, research supported by this award articulated a systematic approach to searching for extensions of the Higgs sector at the LHC and pursued four key avenues through which the Higgs can be used to uncover new physics across a range of experiments: (1) as a direct final state probe; (2) as an indirect probe through its couplings; (3) as a portal to states neutral under the Standard Model; and (4) as a source of exotic processes in displaced decays.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

CONFIDANTE Demonstration Prototype Report

This report summarizes design optimization and performance evaluation studies for a new prototype CONFIDANTE (CONfirmation using a Fast-neutron Imaging Detector with Anti-image Null-positive Time Encoding) warhead confirmation system. It was found that a spherical mask geometry and a 2” diameter cylindrical central detector is expected to best discriminate between the parametrically varied source distributions that were evaluated. The optimized design as fabricated and its performance was evaluated in a series of laboratory measurements. The performance was in good agreement with the design studies, with demonstrated discrimination between objects with differences in scale on the order of 5 centimeters or better at 1 meter stand-off

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

First Results from Diamagnetic Loop Measurements of the DARHT-I Electron Beam [Slides]

Diamagnetic-loop (DML) measurements can inform efforts to improve radiographic resolution. DML is non-invasive, so time-resolved data is available on every shot while tuning or executing a hydrotest. The time-resolved beam size can be deduced from the DML data. LIA beam-transport dynamics affecting beam size can be monitored while testing mitigation measures (e.g., beam halo suppression). Time-resolved beam size at final focus provides immediate information about spot size enlargement due to blur, and effectiveness of mitigation efforts. DML measures magnetic flux produced by a rotating beam, so it also enables monitoring of Larmor emittance that can enlarge the spot size. Beam rotation adds in quadrature with emittance, hence “Larmor emittance." Observing zero bias-field DML flux monitors beam rotation resulting from imperfect nulling of flux linking the cathode, and/or broken LIA transport symmetry (e.g., steering, quads, etc.).

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Covariant classical charged particle motion in a plane electromagnetic wave revisited

We revisit the covariant formulation of a charged particle’s motion under the influence of a plane electromagnetic wave in classical picture. In the first case, we reproduce Meyer’s result by solving relativistic equation of motion ignoring radiation reaction in vacuum assuming zero mass approximation or null vector case ($k^µk_µ = k^2 = 0$). Then, we extend this approach to include the medium effects as perturbations in the propagation of electromagnetic wave (i. e. $k^2 ≠ 0$) and explore the effects of these perturbations in mass shift of the particle.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DES-Y3 galaxies & ACT DR4 CMB lensing tomography

We present a measurement of the cross-correlation between the \maglim galaxies selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) first three years of observations (Y3) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 4 (DR4), reconstructed over $\sim 436$ $\sqdeg$ of the sky. Our galaxy sample, which covers $\sim 4143$ $\sqdeg$, is divided into six redshift bins spanning the redshift range of $0.20<z<1.05$. We adopt a blinding procedure until passing all consistency and systematics tests. After imposing scale cuts for the cross-power spectrum measurement, we reject the null hypothesis of no correlation at 9.1$\sigma$. We constrain cosmological parameters from a joint analysis of galaxy and CMB lensing-galaxy power spectra considering a flat \LCDM model, marginalized over 23 astrophysical and systematic nuisance parameters. We find the clustering amplitude $S_8\equiv \sigma_8 (\Omega_m/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.75^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$. In addition, we co nstrain the linear growth of cosmic structure as a function of redshift. Our results are consistent with recent DES Y3 analyses and suggest a preference for a lower $S_8$ compared to results from measurements of CMB anisotropies by the \textit{Planck} satellite, although at a mild level ($< 2 \sigma$) of statistical significance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗