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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Virologic outcome among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy at five hospitals in Haiti

Introduction Viral load (VL) assessment is the preferred method for diagnosing and confirming virologic failure for patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study to evaluate the virologic suppression rate among patients on ART for 6 months in five hospitals around Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Methods Plasma VL was measured and patients with VL <1,000 copies/mL were defined as virologically suppressed. A second VL test was performed within at least six months of the first test. Factors associated with virologic suppression were analyzed using logistic regression models accounting for site-level clustering using complex survey procedures. Results Data were analyzed for 2,313 patients on ART for six months or longer between July 2013 and February 2015. Among them, 1,563 (67.6%) achieved virologic suppression at the first VL test. A second VL test was performed within at least six months for 718 (31.0%) of the patients. Of the 459 patients with an initial HIV-1 RNA <1,000 copies/mL who had a second VL performed, 394 (85.8%) maintained virologic suppression. Virologic suppression was negatively associated with male gender (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.74– 0.0.86), 23 to 35 months on ART (aOR:0.72[0.54–0.96]), baseline CD4 counts of 201–500 cells/mm 3 and 200 cells/mm 3 or lower (aORs: 0.77 [0.62–0.95] and 0.80 [0.66–0.98], respectively), poor adherence (aOR: 0.69 [0.59–0.81]), and TB co-infection (aOR: 0.73 [0.55–0.97]). Conclusions This study showed that over two-thirds of the patients in this evaluation achieved virologic suppression after six months on ART and the majority of them remained suppressed. These results reinforce the importance of expanding access to HIV-1 viral load testing in Haiti for monitoring ART outcomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index

Background Available COVID-19 mortality indices are limited to acute inpatient data. Using nationwide medical administrative data available prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection from the US Veterans Health Administration (VA), we developed the VA COVID-19 (VACO) 30-day mortality index and validated the index in two independent, prospective samples. Methods and findings We reviewed SARS-CoV-2 testing results within the VA between February 8 and August 18, 2020. The sample was split into a development cohort (test positive between March 2 and April 15, 2020), an early validation cohort (test positive between April 16 and May 18, 2020), and a late validation cohort (test positive between May 19 and July 19, 2020). Our logistic regression model in the development cohort considered demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity), and pre-existing medical conditions and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) derived from ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Weights were fixed to create the VACO Index that was then validated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) in the early and late validation cohorts and among important validation cohort subgroups defined by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. We also evaluated calibration curves and the range of predictions generated within age categories. 13,323 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median age: 63 years; 91% male; 42% non-Hispanic Black). We observed 480/3,681 (13%) deaths in development, 253/2,151 (12%) deaths in the early validation cohort, and 403/7,491 (5%) deaths in the late validation cohort. Age, multimorbidity described with CCI, and a history of myocardial infarction or peripheral vascular disease were independently associated with mortality–no other individual comorbid diagnosis provided additional information. The VACO Index discriminated mortality in development (AUC = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.77–0.81), and in early (AUC = 0.81 95% CI: 0.78–0.83) and late (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.86) validation. The VACO Index allows personalized estimates of 30-day mortality after COVID-19 infection. For example, among those aged 60–64 years, overall mortality was estimated at 9% (95% CI: 6–11%). The Index further discriminated risk in this age stratum from 4% (95% CI: 3–7%) to 21% (95% CI: 12–31%), depending on sex and comorbid disease. Conclusion Prior to infection, demographics and comorbid conditions can discriminate COVID-19 mortality risk overall and within age strata. The VACO Index reproducibly identified individuals at substantial risk of COVID-19 mortality who might consider continuing social distancing, despite relaxed state and local guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Integrating high resolution drone imagery and forest inventory to distinguish canopy and understory trees and quantify their contributions to forest structure and dynamics

Tree growth and survival differ strongly between canopy trees (those directly exposed to overhead light), and understory trees. However, the structural complexity of many tropical forests makes it difficult to determine canopy positions. The integration of remote sensing and ground-based data enables this determination and measurements of how canopy and understory trees differ in structure and dynamics. Here we analyzed 2 cm resolution RGB imagery collected by a Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS), also known as drone, together with two decades of bi-annual tree censuses for 2 ha of old growth forest in the Central Amazon. We delineated all crowns visible in the imagery and linked each crown to a tagged stem through field work. Canopy trees constituted 40% of the 1244 inventoried trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) > 10 cm, and accounted for ~70% of aboveground carbon stocks and wood productivity. The probability of being in the canopy increased logistically with tree diameter, passing through 50% at 23.5 cm DBH. Diameter growth was on average twice as large in canopy trees as in understory trees. Growth rates were unrelated to diameter in canopy trees and positively related to diameter in understory trees, consistent with the idea that light availability increases with diameter in the understory but not the canopy. The whole stand size distribution was best fit by a Weibull distribution, whereas the separate size distributions of understory trees or canopy trees > 25 cm DBH were equally well fit by exponential and Weibull distributions, consistent with mechanistic forest models. The identification and field mapping of crowns seen in a high resolution orthomosaic revealed new patterns in the structure and dynamics of trees of canopy vs. understory at this site, demonstrating the value of traditional tree censuses with drone remote sensing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development and validation of a diabetes risk score among two populations

The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of a practical diabetes risk score amongst two heterogenous populations, a working population and a non-working population. Study population 1 (n = 2,089) participated in a large-scale screening program offered to retired workers to discover previously undetected/incipient chronic illness. Study population 2 (n = 3,293) was part of a Colorado worksite wellness program health risk assessment. We assessed the relationship between a continuous diabetes risk score at baseline and development of diabetes in the future using logistic regression. Receiver operating curves and sensitivity/specificity of the models were calculated. Across both study populations, we observed that participants with diabetes at follow-up had higher diabetes risk scores at baseline than participants who did not have diabetes at follow-up. On average, the odds ratio of developing diabetes in the future was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.26–1.50, p < 0.0001) for study population 1 and 1.68 (95% CI: 1.45–1.95, p-value < 0.0001) for study population 2. These findings indicate that the diabetes risk score may be generalizable to diverse individuals, and thus potentially a population level diabetes screening tool. Minimally-invasive diabetes risk scores can aid in the identification of sub-populations of individuals at risk for diabetes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Gamma radiation sterilization of N95 respirators leads to decreased respirator performance

In response to personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages in the United States due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019, two models of N95 respirators were evaluated for reuse after gamma radiation sterilization. Gamma sterilization is attractive for PPE reuse because it can sterilize large quantities of material through hermetically sealed packaging, providing safety and logistic benefits. The Gamma Irradiation Facility at Sandia National Laboratories was used to irradiate N95 filtering facepiece respirators to a sterilization dose of 25 kGy(tissue). Aerosol particle filtration performance testing and electrostatic field measurements were used to determine the efficacy of the respirators after irradiation. Both respirator models exhibited statistically significant decreases in particle filtering efficiencies and electrostatic potential after irradiation. The largest decrease in capture efficiency was 40–50% and peaked near the 200 nm particle size. The key contribution of this effort is correlating the electrostatic potential change of individual filtration layer of the respirator with the decrease filtration efficiency after irradiation. This observation occurred in both variations of N95 respirator that we tested. Electrostatic potential measurement of the filtration layer is a key indicator for predicting filtration efficiency loss.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Classification of bacterial plasmid and chromosome derived sequences using machine learning

Plasmids are important genetic elements that facilitate horizonal gene transfer between bacteria and contribute to the spread of virulence and antimicrobial resistance. Most bacterial genome sequences in the public archives exist in draft form with many contigs, making it difficult to determine if a contig is of chromosomal or plasmid origin. Using a training set of contigs comprising 10,584 chromosomes and 10,654 plasmids from the PATRIC database, we evaluated several machine learning models including random forest, logistic regression, XGBoost, and a neural network for their ability to classify chromosomal and plasmid sequences using nucleotide k-mers as features. Based on the methods tested, a neural network model that used nucleotide 6-mers as features that was trained on randomly selected chromosomal and plasmid subsequences 5kb in length achieved the best performance, outperforming existing out-of-the-box methods, with an average accuracy of 89.38% ± 2.16% over a 10-fold cross validation. The model accuracy can be improved to 92.08% by using a voting strategy when classifying holdout sequences. In both plasmids and chromosomes, subsequences encoding functions involved in horizontal gene transfer—including hypothetical proteins, transporters, phage, mobile elements, and CRISPR elements—were most likely to be misclassified by the model. This study provides a straightforward approach for identifying plasmid-encoding sequences in short read assemblies without the need for sequence alignment-based tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An accurate and interpretable model for antimicrobial resistance in pathogenic Escherichia coli from livestock and companion animal species

Understanding the microbial genomic contributors to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is essential for early detection of emerging AMR infections, a pressing global health threat in human and veterinary medicine. Here we used whole genome sequencing and antibiotic susceptibility test data from 980 disease causing Escherichia coli isolated from companion and farm animals to model AMR genotypes and phenotypes for 24 antibiotics. We determined the strength of genotype-to-phenotype relationships for 197 AMR genes with elastic net logistic regression. Model predictors were designed to evaluate different potential modes of AMR genotype translation into resistance phenotypes. Our results show a model that considers the presence of individual AMR genes and total number of AMR genes present from a set of genes known to confer resistance was able to accurately predict isolate resistance on average (mean F 1 score = 98.0%, SD = 2.3%, mean accuracy = 98.2%, SD = 2.7%). However, fitted models sometimes varied for antibiotics in the same class and for the same antibiotic across animal hosts, suggesting heterogeneity in the genetic determinants of AMR resistance. We conclude that an interpretable AMR prediction model can be used to accurately predict resistance phenotypes across multiple host species and reveal testable hypotheses about how the mechanism of resistance may vary across antibiotics within the same class and across animal hosts for the same antibiotic.

Chung, Henri C.↗

Learning epistatic polygenic phenotypes with Boolean interactions

Detecting epistatic drivers of human phenotypes is a considerable challenge. Traditional approaches use regression to sequentially test multiplicative interaction terms involving pairs of genetic variants. For higher-order interactions and genome-wide large-scale data, this strategy is computationally intractable. Moreover, multiplicative terms used in regression modeling may not capture the form of biological interactions. Building on the Predictability, Computability, Stability (PCS) framework, we introduce the epiTree pipeline to extract higher-order interactions from genomic data using tree-based models. The epiTree pipeline first selects a set of variants derived from tissue-specific estimates of gene expression. Next, it uses iterative random forests (iRF) to search training data for candidate Boolean interactions (pairwise and higher-order). We derive significance tests for interactions, based on a stabilized likelihood ratio test, by simulating Boolean tree-structured null (no epistasis) and alternative (epistasis) distributions on hold-out test data. Finally, our pipeline computes PCS epistasis p-values that probabilisticly quantify improvement in prediction accuracy via bootstrap sampling on the test set. We validate the epiTree pipeline in two case studies using data from the UK Biobank: predicting red hair and multiple sclerosis (MS). In the case of predicting red hair, epiTree recovers known epistatic interactions surrounding MC1R and novel interactions, representing non-linearities not captured by logistic regression models. In the case of predicting MS, a more complex phenotype than red hair, epiTree rankings prioritize novel interactions surrounding HLA-DRB1 , a variant previously associated with MS in several populations. Taken together, these results highlight the potential for epiTree rankings to help reduce the design space for follow up experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Misclassification of causes of death among a small all-autopsied group of former nuclear workers: Death certificates vs. autopsy reports

The U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries performs autopsies on each of its deceased Registrants as a part of its mission to follow up occupationally-exposed individuals. This provides a unique opportunity to explore death certificate misclassification errors, and the factors that influence them, among this small population of former nuclear workers. Underlying causes of death from death certificates and autopsy reports were coded using the 10 th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). These codes were then used to quantify misclassification rates among 268 individuals for whom both full autopsy reports and death certificates with legible underlying causes of death were available. When underlying causes of death were compared between death certificates and autopsy reports, death certificates correctly identified the underlying cause of death’s ICD-10 disease chapter in 74.6% of cases. The remaining 25.4% of misclassified cases resulted in over-classification rates that ranged from 1.2% for external causes of mortality to 12.2% for circulatory disease, and under-classification rates that ranged from 7.7% for external causes of mortality to 47.4% for respiratory disease. Neoplasms had generally lower misclassification rates with 4.3% over-classification and 13.3% under-classification. A logistic regression revealed that the odds of a match were 2.8 times higher when clinical history was mentioned on the autopsy report than when it was not. Similarly, the odds of a match were 3.4 times higher when death certificates were completed using autopsy findings than when autopsy findings were not used. This analysis excluded cases where it could not be determined if autopsy findings were used to complete death certificates. The findings of this study are useful to investigate the impact of death certificate misclassification errors on radiation risk estimates and, therefore, improve the reliability of epidemiological studies.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and COVID-19 severity: a prospective cohort study

The tremendous global health burden related to COVID-19 means that identifying determinants of COVID-19 severity is important for prevention and intervention. We aimed to explore long-term exposure to ambient air pollution as a potential contributor to COVID-19 severity, given its known impact on the respiratory system. Methods: We used a cohort of all people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, aged 20 years and older and not residing in a long-term care facility in Ontario, Canada, during 2020. We evaluated the association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ground-level ozone (O 3 ), and risk of COVID-19-related hospital admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death. We ascertained individuals’ longterm exposures to each air pollutant based on their residence from 2015 to 2019. We used logistic regression and adjusted for confounders and selection bias using various individual and contextual covariates obtained through data linkage. Results: Among the 151105 people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario in 2020, we observed 8630 hospital admissions, 1912 ICU admissions and 2137 deaths related to COVID-19. For each interquartile range increase in exposure to PM 2.5 (1.70 µg/m 3 ), we estimated odds ratios of 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.12), 1.09 (95% CI 0.98–1.21) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.90–1.11) for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively. Estimates were smaller for NO 2 . We also estimated odds ratios of 1.15 (95% CI 1.06–1.23), 1.30 (95% CI 1.12–1.50) and 1.18 (95% CI 1.02–1.36) per interquartile range increase of 5.14 ppb in O 3 for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

New River Geothermal Exploration (Ram Power Inc.)

The New River Geothermal Exploration (DOE Award No. EE0002843) is located approximately 25km south of the Salton Sea, near town of Brawley in Imperial County and approximately 150km east of San Diego, California. A total of 182 MT Logger sites were completed covering the two separate Mesquite and New River grids. The data was collected over a frequency range of 320Hz to 0.001Hz with variable site spacing. A number of different inversion algorithms in 1D, 2D and 3D were used to produce resistivity-depth profiles and maps of subsurface resistivity variations over the survey area. For 2D inversions, a total of eighteen lines were constructed in east-west and north-south orientations crossing the entire survey area. For MT 3D inversion, the New River property was divided in two sub-grids, Mesquite and New River areas. The report comprises of two parts. For the first part, inversions and geophysical interpretation results are presented with some recommendations of the potential targets for future follow up on the property. The second part of the report describes logistics of the survey, survey parameters, methodology and the survey results (data) in digital documents. The report reviews a Spartan MT survey carried out by Quantec Geoscience Limited over the New River Project in California, USA on behalf of Ram Power Inc. Data was acquired over a period of 29 days from 2010/06/26 to 2010/07/24.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Tularosa Basin Play Fairway: Weights of Evidence Models

These models are related to weights of evidence play fairway anlaysis of the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico and Texas. They were created through Spatial Data Modeler: ArcMAP 9.3 geoprocessing tools for spatial data modeling using weights of evidence, logistic regression, fuzzy logic and neural networks. It used to identify high values for potential geothermal plays and low values. The results are relative not only within the Tularosa Basin, but also throughout New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, and other places where high to moderate enthalpy geothermal systems are present (training sites).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Green Design of a Cellulosic Butanol Supply Chain Network: A Case Study of Sorghum Stem Bio-butanol in Missouri

Cellulosic butanol is a very promising renewable fuel to consider for the future transportation market. However, the seasonal availability of the raw materials, high maintenance cost, and high logistical cost of the biomass energy supply chain are the main factors impeding the commercialization and large-scale-production of this energy source. Furthermore, research focusing on an environmental or green supply chain network design of cellulosic butanol has been insufficient. Here, this study focused on designing a green supply chain network for cellulosic butanol. A life cycle analysis was integrated into a multi-objective linear programming model to optimize the cellulosic butanol supply chain network. With the objectives of maximizing the economic profits and minimizing the greenhouse gas emissions, the proposed model can optimize the location and size of a bio-butanol production plant. The mathematical model was applied to a case study in the state of Missouri, and solved the tradeoff between the feedstock and market availabilities of sorghum stem bio-butanol.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The seismic noise environment of Antarctica

Seismographic coverage of Antarctica prior to 2007 consisted overwhelmingly of a handful of long running and sporadically deployed transient stations, many of which were principally collocated with scientific research stations. Thus, despite very cold temperatures, sunless winters, challenging logistics, and extreme storms, recent developments in polar instrumentation driven by new scientific objectives have opened up the entirety of Antarctica to year–round and continuous seismological observation (e.g., Nyblade et al., 2012).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Automatic Waveform Quality Control for Surface Waves Using Machine Learning

Surface-wave seismograms are widely used by researchers to study Earth’s interior and earthquakes. To extract information reliably and robustly from a suite of surface waveforms, the signals require quality control screening to reduce artifacts from signal complexity and noise. This process has usually been completed by human experts labeling each waveform visually, which is time consuming and tedious for large data sets. We explore automated approaches to improve the efficiency of waveform quality control processing by investigating logistic regression, support vector machines, K-nearest neighbors, random forests (RF), and artificial neural networks (ANN) algorithms. To speed up signal quality assessment, we trained these five machine learning (ML) methods using nearly 400,000 human-labeled waveforms. The ANN and RF models outperformed other algorithms and achieved a test accuracy of 92%. We evaluated these two best-performing models using seismic events from geographic regions not used for training. The results show that the two trained models agree with labels from human analysts but required only 0.4% of the time. Although the original (human) quality assignments assessed general waveform signal-to-noise, the ANN or RF labels can help facilitate detailed waveform analysis. Our investigations demonstrate the capability of the automated processing using these two ML models to reduce outliers in surface-wave-related measurements without human quality control screening.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Variability in Performance of a Machine Learning Seismicity Catalog: Central Italy, 2016–2017

Machine learning (ML) catalogs contain many more earthquakes than routine catalogs, but their performance in phase picking and earthquake detection has not been fully evaluated. We develop station‐level detection probabilities using logistic regression and combine them across a seismic network to compute spatial magnitude‐of‐completeness fields. We apply this approach to two catalogs from the 2016–2017 Central Italy sequence that were constructed from the same seismic network, one routine and one ML‐based. At the station level, the ML picker increases detection sensitivity by identifying smaller magnitude events and detecting earthquakes at greater distances. Spatially, the magnitude of completeness decreases substantially, with median values shifting from 1.6 to 0.5 for P waves and from 1.7 to 0.5 for S waves. However, the ML catalog also shows greater variability in station‐level performance than the routine catalog. These results demonstrate that ML‐based improvements in detectability are widespread but spatially nonuniform, highlighting their benefits, their limitations, and the potential for further improvements.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

WELLS Database

The Wellbore Exploration and Location Logistic System (WELLS) is a living national wellbore database - created and maintained by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). This resource contains more than seven million public wellbore records from state, federal, and tribal resources. Sourced from over 65 authoritative, yet disparate resources, the WELLS Database combines and synthesizes well data from oil, gas, underground injection, research, geothermal, geotechnical, groundwater and other types of wells in a single, unified system. This resource can be explored and visualized through the WELLS Interactive Application, also on EDX: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/wells-interactive-application The WELLS Database (formerly titled CO2-Locate) is an integrated national well dataset, representing open-source wellbore data from disparate state, tribal, and federal entities. The database provides publicly available well header data with key attributes such as well age, depth, and status. The database contains a fully integrated CSV file with all values in numerical columns, such as depth, converted into numbers. This version has a NETL derived API (American Petroleum Institute) number column and has been handled for redundancies, resulting in one record for every unique API number. The database also contains a fully integrated CSV file, where all original data are kept as text values. Additionally, the database includes a shapefile containing key attributes and coordinates from the integrated dataset, reformatted public wells CSV files, and a proprietary well density grid shapefile. Notes for consideration: The WELLS Database will be updated periodically with new datasets and information. A field dictionary with field (i.e., attribute) coverage across acquired public well resources, and the resulting integrated public well datasets are available in the spreadsheet, WELLS_Field_Dictionary.xlsx. Summary layers provided in this database are derived from proprietary layers and do not always contain key features (status, type, true vertical depth, or spud year) and therefore might not be shown when data are queried for those features.

AS↗