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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,459 records · Page 81
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/ location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 degrees longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

longitude↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of melting and erosion in high velocity microparticle impacts

High velocity collisions can cause melting, a situation involving elasticity, plasticity, and phase transformations in tandem, which is very challenging for mechanical modeling. Here, this paper advances the use of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations for this complex situation, investigating stainless steel microspheres impacting a tin substrate. After extensive validation against a range of mechanical and geometrical measurements of experimental impacts, the model provides a detailed, quantitative view of melt volume production over a broad range of impact velocities. It also enables direct decomposition of the impact energy partitioning, including analysis of the energy absorbed by plasticity in the impactor, the system kinetic energy, and the adiabatic heating of the substrate in addition to the melting itself. Since these quantities are not available experimentally, SPH modeling substantially enhances the quantitative understanding of such impacts. Finally, the model speaks to the phase characteristics of the ejecta formed during impact, confirming the experimental inference that the ejected material likely contains a significant fraction of solid material.

Constitutive modeling↗
NASA NTRS1997

Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 Fragment Size Estimates: How Big was the Parent Body?

The impact of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 on Jupiter in July, 1994 was the largest, most energetic impact event on a planet ever witnessed. Because it broke up during a close encounter with Jupiter in 1992, it was bright enough to be discovered more than a year prior to impact, allowing the scientific community an unprecedented opportunity to assess the effects such an event would have. Many excellent observations were made from Earth-based telescopes, the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and the Galileo spacecraft en route to Jupiter. In this paper, these observations are used in conjunction with computational simulations performed with the CTH shock-physics hydrocode to determine the sizes of the fifteen fragments that made discernible impact features on the planet. To do this, CTH was equipped with a radiative ablation model and a postprocessing radiative ray-trace capability that enabled light-flux predictions (often called the impact flash) for the viewing geometries of Galileo and ground-based observers. The five events recorded by Galileo were calibrated to give fragment size estimates. Compared against ground-based and HST observations, these estimates were extended using a least-squares analysis to assess the impacts of the remaining ten fragments. Some of the largest impacts (L, G, and K) were greater that 1 km in diameter, but the density of the fragments was low, about 0.25 g/cm(exp 3). The volume of the combined fifteen fragments would make a sphere 1.8 km in diameter. Assuming a prebreakup density of 0.5 g/cm(exp 3), the parent body of Shoemaker-Levy 9 had a probable diameter of 1.4 km. The total kinetic energy of all the impacts was equivalent to the explosive yield of 300 Gigatons of TNT.

Crawford, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Multi-institutional Pooled Analysis on Adjuvant Chemoradiation in Pancreatic Cancer

Purpose: To determine the impact of chemoradiation therapy (CRT) on overall survival (OS) after resection of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Methods and Materials: A multicenter retrospective review of 955 consecutive patients who underwent complete resection with macroscopically negative margins (R0-1) for invasive carcinoma (T1-4; N0-1; M0) of the pancreas was performed. Exclusion criteria included metastatic or unresectable disease at surgery, macroscopic residual disease (R2), treatment with intraoperative radiation therapy (IORT), and a histological diagnosis of no ductal carcinoma, or postoperative death (within 60 days of surgery). In all, 623 patients received postoperative radiation therapy (RT), 575 patients received concurrent chemotherapy (CT), and 462 patients received adjuvant CT. Results: Median follow-up was 21.0 months. Median OS after adjuvant CRT was 39.9 versus 24.8 months after no adjuvant CRT (P<.001) and 27.8 months after CT alone (P<.001). Five-year OS was 41.2% versus 24.8% with and without postoperative CRT, respectively. The positive impact of CRT was confirmed by multivariate analysis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.72; confidence interval [CI], 0.60-0.87; P=.001). Adverse prognostic factors identified by multivariate analysis included the following: R1 resection (HR = 1.17; CI = 1.07-1.28; P<.001), higher pT stage (HR = 1.23; CI = 1.11-1.37; P<.001), positive lymph nodes (HR = 1.27; CI = 1.15-1.41; P<.001), and tumor diameter >20 mm (HR = 1.14; CI = 1.05-1.23; P=.002). Multivariate analysis also showed a better prognosis in patients treated in centers with >10 pancreatic resections per year (HR = 0.87; CI = 0.78-0.97; P=.014) Conclusion: This study represents the largest comparative study on adjuvant therapy in patients after resection of carcinoma of the pancreas. Overall survival was better in patients who received adjuvant CRT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Impact of Land Initialization and Assimilation on Climate Predictability and Prediction

Analysis will be presented which explores the impact of land conditions on monthly to seasonal climate simulations in a variety of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In one set of experiments, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GDFL) AGCM is used to explore the nature of soil-moisture predictability and associated climate predictability as an initial value problem. For another set of experiments, the Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere (COLA) and the Goddard Earth Observing System 2 (GEOS-2) AGCMs are used to investigate the impact of realistic snow initialization and assimilation in retrospective climate forecasts for the northern hemisphere spring (March-June).

Schlosser, C. Adam↗
DOE OSTI2016

Enhancing capillary trapping effectiveness through proper time scheduling of injection of supercritical CO 2 in heterogeneous formations

The impact of geologic heterogeneity on capillary trapping of supercritical CO 2 (scCO 2 ) has been recognized and appraised through laboratory experimentation and modeling. However, how different injection strategies can be optimized to improve capillary trapping has not received adequate attention. Here, we present a study based on stochastic analysis to show the impact of injection scheduling on capillary trapping of scCO 2 in heterogeneous geological formations. Improvement of trapping efficiency consists of maximizing the trapped volume within a predefined secure zone of the storage formation with the goal of avoiding plume intersection with potential leakage pathways. Using knowledge acquired from physical experiments in intermediate-scale tanks with controlled heterogeneity, we conduct numerical simulations following a stochastic approach to extend the observed outcomes to a series of equally probable permeability scenarios. Our simulations involve the same combination of surrogate fluids that are used in the experiments to mimic viscosity and density contrasts between scCO 2 and brine. To account for uncertainty of formation heterogeneity, several permeability fields with three different variances and two horizontal correlation lengths are generated. The same volume of scCO 2 is emplaced using four different modes of injection scheduling. Results suggest that injection strategies aimed at enhancing capillary trapping of scCO 2 and increasing the probability of constraining the plume within a secure zone are strictly related to the specific heterogeneity of the reservoir. Finally, this preliminary theoretical finding suggests the potential for maximizing secure capillary trapping through the proper selection of injection schedule to fit the formation heterogeneity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of survey spatial variability on galaxy redshift distributions and the cosmological 3 × 2-point statistics for the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

We investigate the impact of spatial survey non-uniformity on the galaxy redshift distributions for forthcoming data releases of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Specifically, we construct a mock photometry data set degraded by the Rubin OpSim observing conditions, and estimate photometric redshifts of the sample using a template-fitting photo-z estimator, BPZ, and a machine learning method, FlexZBoost. We select the Gold sample, defined as $i\lt 25.3$ for 10 yr LSST data, with an adjusted magnitude cut for each year and divide it into five tomographic redshift bins for the weak lensing lens and source samples. We quantify the change in the number of objects, mean redshift, and width of each tomographic bin as a function of the coadd i-band depth for 1-yr (Y1), 3-yr (Y3), and 5-yr (Y5) data. In particular, Y3 and Y5 have large non-uniformity due to the rolling cadence of LSST, hence provide a worst-case scenario of the impact from non-uniformity. We find that these quantities typically increase with depth, and the variation can be $10\!-\!40~{{\rm per\ cent}}$ at extreme depth values. Using Y3 as an example, we propagate the variable depth effect to the weak lensing $3\times 2$ pt analysis, and assess the impact on cosmological parameters via a Fisher forecast. We find that galaxy clustering is most susceptible to variable depth, and non-uniformity needs to be mitigated below 3 per cent to recover unbiased cosmological constraints. There is little impact on galaxy–shear and shear–shear power spectra, given the expected LSST Y3 noise.

cosmology↗
NASA NTRS1994

Inspection planning development: An evolutionary approach using reliability engineering as a tool

This paper proposes an evolutionary approach for inspection planning which introduces various reliability engineering tools into the process and assess system trade-offs among reliability, engineering requirement, manufacturing capability and inspection cost to establish an optimal inspection plan. The examples presented in the paper illustrate some advantages and benefits of the new approach. Through the analysis, reliability and engineering impacts due to manufacturing process capability and inspection uncertainty are clearly understood; the most cost effective and efficient inspection plan can be established and associated risks are well controlled; some inspection reductions and relaxations are well justified; and design feedbacks and changes may be initiated from the analysis conclusion to further enhance reliability and reduce cost. The approach is particularly promising as global competitions and customer quality improvement expectations are rapidly increasing.

Graf, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Uncertainty Quantification for Analysis of Multi-Component Systems

To impact physical mechanical system design decisions and realize the full promise of high-fidelity computational tools, simulation results must be integrated at the earliest stages of the design process. This is particularly challenging when dealing with uncertainty and optimizing for system-level performance metrics, as full-system models (often notoriously expensive and time-consuming to develop) are generally required to propagate uncertainties to system-level quantities of interest. Methods for propagating parameter and boundary condition uncertainty in networks of interconnected components hold promise for enabling design under uncertainty in real-world applications. These methods avoid the need for time consuming mesh generation of full-system geometries when changes are made to components or subassemblies. Additionally, they explicitly tie full-system model predictions to component/subassembly validation data which is valuable for qualification. These methods work by leveraging the fact that many engineered systems are inherently modular, being comprised of a hierarchy of components and subassemblies that are individually modified or replaced to define new system designs. By doing so, these methods enable rapid model development and the incorporation of uncertainty quantification earlier in the design process. The resulting formulation of the uncertainty propagation problem is iterative. We express the system model as a network of interconnected component models, which exchange solution information at component boundaries. We present a pair of approaches for propagating uncertainty in this type of decomposed system and provide implementations in the form of an open-source software library. We demonstrate these tools on a variety of applications and demonstrate the impact of problem-specific details on the performance and accuracy of the resulting UQ analysis. This work represents the most comprehensive investigation of these network uncertainty propagation methods to date.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2018

Initial Jitter Analysis of Lynx, a Proposed Future Large Astrophysics Facility

Lynx is an X-Ray telescope large-mission concept for consideration in NASA's 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey. A conceptual structural design is evolving that leverages the success and lessons learned from Chandra and that takes into account unique needs of Lynx. Space optics systems require extreme stability. Any motion in-service (thermal effects, structural dynamics, etc.) impacts performance. An initial analysis was performed to predict the first-cut dynamic responses, jitter, at two selected points on the Lynx observatory. One point is on the Lynx X-ray Mirror Assembly (LMA) and the other, on the focal plane Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM). Relative motion between these two points was predicted along with vibration spectra. This information will be used in upcoming analyses of the LMA and the ISIM.

Knight, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2004

Acoustic Emission Analysis of Shuttle Thermal Protection System

Acoustic emission (AE) signals generated from projectile impacts on reinforced and advanced carbon/carbon (RCC and ACC) panels, fired from a compressed-gas gun, identify the type and severity of damage sustained by the target. This type of testing is vital in providing the required "return to flight" (RTF) data needed to ensure continued and safe operation of NASA's Space Shuttle fleet. The gas gun at Kennedy Space Center is capable of propelling 12-inch by 3-inch cylinders of external tank (ET) foam at exit velocities exceeding 1,000 feet per second. Conventional AE analysis techniques require time domain processing of impulse data, along with amplitude distribution analysis. It is well known that identical source excitations can produce a wide range of AE signals amplitudes. In order to satisfy RTF goals, it is necessary to identify impact energy levels above and below damage thresholds. Spectral analysis techniques involving joint time frequency analysis (JTFA) are used to reinforce time domain AE analysis. JTFA analysis of the AE signals consists of short-time Fourier transforms (STFT) and the Huang-Hilbert transform (HHT). The HHT provides a very good measure of the instantaneous frequency of impulse events dominated by a single component. Identifying failure modes and cracking of fibers from flexural and/or extensional mode acoustic signals will help support in-flight as well as postflight impact analysis.

Lane, John↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Classification of Commercial Nuclear Reactor Sites and the Subsequent Impacts on Preparing Spent Nuclear Fuel for Shipment - 17355

The US Department of Energy is conducting analyses to inform future decisions regarding an integrated waste management system for the acceptance of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) from commercial nuclear reactor sites. The ability to prepare SNF for shipment from reactor sites is likely to be restricted by ongoing operations at those sites. This report examines the extent to which those operations will restrict the reactor sites' availability to prepare SNF for shipment. Specifically, the analysis focuses on the impact and frequency of refueling operations within the commercial reactor sites in the US. In this report, a characterization of reactor sites into families is described. This characterization is based on the number of operating reactors on site, the length of refueling cycles for those reactors, and the configuration of spent fuel pools on site. Each reactor family is analyzed to estimate the amount of time for which each reactor site in the family would be available to prepare SNF shipments. This analysis is a work in progress, and the results are used to inform the development of new models of an integrated waste management system for commercial SNF. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

The CanBikeCO Mini Pilot: Preliminary Results and Lessons Learned

In fall 2020, the Colorado Energy Office, as part of the State of Colorado’s “Can Do Colorado” initiative, initiated a project aimed at encouraging energy-efficient transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial mini-pilot provided e-bikes to 13 low-income households under an individual ownership model. This report assesses the impact of providing this additional mobility option on the travel behavior of participants. It also outlines the lessons learned from deploying a continuous monitoring platform to track the travel behavior. These lessons will influence the evaluation component for the full pilot, which will cover multiple geographic regions, starting in summer 2021, and run for 2 years. The continuous data collection was enabled by a customized version of the open-source e-mission platform, called CanBikeCO, configured with a behavioral gamification feature. The Colorado Energy Office used this system to collect a unique data set consisting of 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed data and linked with demographic information, from 12 participants. The data collection process worked well overall: users generally liked the app, appreciated the game, and did not complain about battery life. The long tracking period introduced behavioral challenges in user engagement, which we plan to address using repeated patterns and automated status checks for the full pilot. The analysis results, based on the subset of trips with user-reported labels (68%), indicate that the e-bike was the dominant commute mode share (31%), in sharp contrast to the census bicycle commute mode share (<1%). E-bike trips primarily replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (28%), followed closely by walking (24%) and regular bike (20%). The nonmotorized mode replacement corresponds to lower travel time and increased productivity enabled by the program. The emissions impact analysis of the program, computed using trip-level energy intensity factors, indicates savings of 1,367 lbs. of CO 2 . Although the results are strongly positive, the narrow demographic profile of study participants, their limited mobility alternatives, and nonuniform labeling indicate caution in broader interpretation. These preliminary results do suggest that such programs, supported by real-time education and support from program managers, can simultaneously meet equity and sustainability goals. The planned full pilot, addressing the data collection challenges and broadening the geographic scope, will provide additional insights into the generality of this approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Field Efficiency of Round-Baling Operations in High-Yielding Biomass Crops

Model simulations for bioenergy harvest planning need to utilize equipment-capacity relationships for equipment operating under the high-yield conditions typical of a biomass crop. These performance assumptions have a direct bearing on the estimates of machine capacity, the number of machines required, and, therefore, the cost to fulfill the biorefinery plant demands for a given harvest window. Typically, two major issues in these models have been poorly understood: the available time required to complete the harvest operation (often called probability of workdays) and the capacity of the harvest equipment as impacted by yield. Simulations use annual yield estimates, which incorporate weather events, to demonstrate year-to-year effects. Some simulations also incorporate potential yield increases from genetically modified energy crops. There are limited field performance data for most current forage equipment used for harvesting high-yield biomass crops. Analysis shows that the impact of wrap/eject time for round balers resulted in a 50% reduction in achieved throughput capacity (Mg/h). After the maximum throughput is reached, the cost of the round bale operation (3.23 USD/Mg) is double that of the large-square baler (1.63 USD/Mg). The round baler achieved throughput capacity is 50% less (32.7 Mg/h compared to 71.0 Mg/h) than the large-square baler.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Enabling Structured Exploration of Workflow Performance Variability in Extreme-Scale Environments

Workflows are taking an Workflows are taking an increasingly important role in orchestrating complex scientific processes in extreme scale and highly heterogeneous environments. However, to date we cannot reliably predict, understand, and optimize workflow performance. Sources of performance variability and in particular the interdependencies of workflow design, execution environment and system architecture are not well understood. While there is a rich portfolio of tools for performance analysis, modeling and prediction for single applications in homogenous computing environments, these are not applicable to workflows, due to the number and heterogeneity of the involved workflow and system components and their strong interdependencies. In this paper, we investigate workflow performance goals and identify factors that could have a relevant impact. Based on our analysis, we propose a new workflow performance provenance ontology, the Open Provenance Model-based WorkFlow Performance Provenance, or OPM-WFPP, that will enable the empirical study of workflow performance characteristics and variability including complex source attribution.

Enabling structured workflows↗
DOE OSTI2021

The CanBikeCO Mini Pilot: Procedure and Preliminary Results

In fall 2020, the Colorado Energy Office, as part of the State of Colorado's "Can Do Colorado" initiative, initiated a project aimed at encouraging energy-efficient transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial mini-pilot provided e-bikes to 13 low-income households under an individual ownership model. This report assesses the impact of providing this additional mobility option on the travel behavior of participants. It also outlines the lessons learned from deploying a continuous monitoring platform to track the travel behavior. These lessons will influence the evaluation component for the full pilot, which will cover multiple geographic regions, start in summer 2021, and run for 2 years. The continuous data collection was enabled by a customized version of the open-source e-mission platform, called CanBikeCO, configured with a behavioral gamification feature. The Colorado Energy Office used this system to collect a unique data set consisting of 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed data and linked with demographic information, from 12 participants. The data collection process worked well overall: users generally liked the app, appreciated the game, and did not complain about battery life. The long tracking period introduced behavioral challenges in user engagement, which we plan to address using repeated patterns and automated status checks for the full pilot. The analysis results, based on the subset of trips with user-reported labels (68%), indicate that the e-bike was the dominant commute mode share (31%), in sharp contrast to the census bicycle commute mode share (<1%). E-bike trips primarily replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (28%), followed closely by walking (24%) and regular bike (20%). The non-motorized mode replacement corresponds to lower travel time and increased productivity enabled by the program. The emissions impact analysis of the program, computed using trip-level energy intensity factors, indicates savings of 1,367 lbs. of CO2. Although the results are strongly positive, the narrow demographic profile of study participants, their limited mobility alternatives, and nonuniform labeling indicate caution in broader interpretation. These preliminary results do suggest that such programs, supported by real-time education and support from program managers, can simultaneously meet equity and sustainability goals. The planned full pilot, addressing the data collection challenges and broadening the geographic scope, will provide additional insights into the generality of this approach.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗