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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Post Eruption Hazards at Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines

Our project focused on the investigation of the post-eruption hazards at Mt. Pinatubo (Philippines) using remote sensing data, and field observations of the 1991 eruption deposits. Through the use of multiple satellite images, field work, and the 1996/2000 PacRim data sets, we conducted studies of the co- and post-eruption hazards of the volcano due to erosion and re-deposition of the extensive pyroclastic flow deposits. A major part of this project was the assembly and analysis of a database of over 50 high resolution (1 - 50 m/pixel) images that will facilitate this study. We collected Ikonos, SPOT, SIR-C/X-SAR, Landsat, ERS, RADARSAT, and ASTER images of the area around Mt. Pinatubo. An example of the changes that could be seen in these data is shown. Our investigation focused on a retrospective analysis of the erosion, redeposition, and re-vegetation of the 1991 pyroclastic flow deposits of Mt. Pinatubo. The primary geologic goal of our work was the analysis of the spatial distribution and volume change of the sources and sinks of materials associated with mudflow ('lahar') events. This included the measurement of river valley gradients and cross-sections using TOPSAR digital elevation data, as we are participating in the PacRim 2000 deployment to the Philippines specifically so that we can collect a second set of TOPSAR data that can then be used to create a topographic difference image of the volcano. The main results from this multi-sensor study have been published as Torres et al.. A discussion of the methodology that we used to assemble an appropriate database was included in Mouginis-Mark and Domergue-Schmidt. As part of an educational outreach effort, we also helped the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) in the Philippines to use NASA data to study Mt. Pinatubo and other Filipino volcanoes.

Mouginis-Mark, Peter J.↗

Microbial Characterization and Comparison of Isolates During the Mir and ISS Missions

Spacecraft represent a semi-closed ecosystem that provides a unique model of microbial interaction with other microbes, potential hosts, and their environment. Environmental samples from the Mir Space Station (1995-1998) and the International Space Station (ISS) (2000-Present) were collected and processed to provide insight into the characterization of microbial diversity aboard spacecraft over time and assess any potential health risks to the crew. All microbiota were isolated using standard media-based methodologies. Isolates from Mir and ISS were processed using various methods of analysis, including VITEK biochemical analysis, 16s ribosomal identification, and fingerprinting using rep-PCR analysis. Over the first 41 months of habitation, the diversity of the microbiota from air and surface samples aboard ISS increased from an initial six to 53 different bacterial species. During the same period, fungal diversity increased from 2 to 24 species. Based upon rep-PCR analysis, the majority of isolates were unique suggesting the need for increased sampling frequency and a more thorough analysis of samples to properly characterize the ISS microbiota. This limited fungal and bacterial data from environmental samples acquired during monitoring currently do not indicate a microbial hazard to ISS or any trends suggesting potential health risks.

Fontenot, Sondra L.↗

Loss of Control Prevention and Recovery: Onboard Guidance, Control, and Systems Technologies

Loss of control (LOC) is one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. LOC accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. These LOC hazards include vehicle impairment conditions, external disturbances; vehicle upset conditions, and inappropriate crew actions or responses. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. NASA previously defined a comprehensive research and technology development approach for reducing LOC accidents and an associated integrated system concept. Onboard technologies for improved situation awareness, guidance, and control for LOC prevention and recovery are needed as part of this approach. Such systems should include: LOC hazards effects detection and mitigation; upset detection, prevention and recovery; and mitigation of combined hazards. NASA is conducting research in each of these areas. This paper provides an overview of this research, including the near-term LOC focus and associated analysis, as well as preliminary flight system architecture.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Association Between Radiation Necrosis and Tumor Biology After Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastasis

Background: The primary dose-limiting toxicity of stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is radiation necrosis (RN), which occurs after approximately 5% to 10% of treatments. This adverse event may worsen neurologic deficits, increase the frequency and cost of imaging, and necessitate prolonged treatment with steroids or antiangiogenic agents. Previous investigations have primarily identified lesion size and dosimetric constraints as risk factors for RN in small populations. We hypothesized that disease histology, receptor status, and mutational status are associated with RN. Methods and Materials: All patients presenting with brain metastasis between 1997 and 2015 who underwent SRS and subsequent radiographic follow-up at a single tertiary-care institution were eligible for inclusion. The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of radiographic RN. Multivariate competing risks regression was used to identify biological risk factors for RN. Results: 1939 patients (5747 lesions) were eligible for inclusion; 285 patients (15%) experienced radiographic RN after the treatment of 427 (7%) lesions. After SRS, the median time to RN was 7.6 months. After multivariate analysis, graded prognostic assessment, renal pathology, lesion diameter, and the heterogeneity index remained independently predictive of RN in the pooled cohort. In subset analyses of individual pathologies, HER2-amplified status (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, P=.02), BRAF V600+ mutational status (HR 0.33, P=.04), lung adenocarcinoma histology (HR 1.89, P=.04), and ALK rearrangement (HR 6.36, P<.01) were also associated with RN. Conclusions: In the present investigation constituting the largest series of RN, several novel risk factors were identified, including renal histology, lung adenocarcinoma histology, HER2 amplification, and ALK/BRAF mutational status. These risk factors may be used to guide clinical trial design incorporating biological risk stratification or dose escalation. Future studies determining the optimal timing of targeted therapies are warranted to further define the risk of RN.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Statistical analysis of failure data on controllers and SSME turbine blade failures

The expressions for the maximum likelihood functions are given when the failure data are censored at a given point or at multiple points, or when the data come in groups. Different models applicable to failure data are presented with their characteristics. A graphical method of distinguishing different models by using cumulative hazard fucnction is discussed. For the failure data on controllers the model is determined by cumulative hazard function and chi-square goodness of fit. Using the Weibull Model the maximum likelihood estimators of the shape parameter and the failure rate parameter are obtained. The confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and B1 are determined. Similarly, for the data on Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) blade failures the maximum likelihood estimators are obtained for the Weibull parameters. The variances, confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and reliability are determined. The analysis is performed under assumption of grouped data as well as randomly placed data.

Patil, S. A.↗

Development and Analysis of the Automated Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool Parametric Study Wrapper

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) Safety Group at the Johnson Space Center analyzes reentering spacecraft at the end of life. The program primarily used by ODPO in this effort is the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT). ORSAT utilizes shape primitives as well as a variety of other parameters (material, size, thickness, aerodynamic mass, orbit inclination, etc.) to simulate the reentry process and ultimately, to determine if a spacecraft could be hazardous to the population on the ground. The NASA ODPO plans to automate the ORSAT process to run multiple ORSAT input files either concurrently or consecutively. This type of automation program will provide several benefits. First, there is a need to run large parametric studies for ORSAT analysts to gain a greater understanding of reentering object’s sensitivity to certain input variables. Secondly, a database of pre-run ORSAT cases will be used to develop a survivability model, which could be made available to spacecraft developers as a design for demise (D4D) tool. The recently completed Automated Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (AutoORSAT) Wrapper is currently being used to build a survivability database, the first step in developing a survivability model. Already, the data that AutoORSAT has produced provides a greater understanding of the sensitivity of variables such as the initial temperature of the spacecraft, spacecraft breakup altitude, and the aerodynamic mass of spacecraft.

Smith, Andrew N.↗

Super Resolution Image Enhancement for a Flash Lidar: Back Projection Method

In this paper a new image processing technique for flash LIDAR data is presented as a potential tool to enable safe and precise spacecraft landings in future robotic or crewed lunar and planetary missions. Flash LIDARs can generate, in real-time, range data that can be interpreted as a 3-dimensional (3-D) image and transformed into a corresponding digital elevation map (DEM). The NASA Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project is capitalizing on this new technology by developing, testing and analyzing flash LIDARs to detect hazardous terrain features such as craters, rocks, and slopes during the descent phase of spacecraft landings. Using a flash LIDAR for this application looks very promising, however through theoretical and simulation analysis the ALHAT team has determined that a single frame, or mosaic, of flash LIDAR data may not be sufficient to build a landing site DEM with acceptable spatial resolution, precision, size, or for a mosaic, in time, to meet current system requirements. One way to overcome this potential limitation is by enhancing the flash LIDAR output images. We propose a new super-resolution algorithm applicable to flash LIDAR range data that will create a DEM with sufficient accuracy, precision and size to meet current ALHAT requirements. The performance of our super-resolution algorithm is analyzed by processing data generated during a series of simulation runs by a high fidelity model of a flash LIDAR imaging a high resolution synthetic lunar elevation map. The flash LIDAR model is attached to a simulated spacecraft by a gimbal that points the LIDAR to a target landing site. For each simulation run, a sequence of flash LIDAR frames is recorded and processed as the spacecraft descends toward the landing site. Each run has a different trajectory profile with varying LIDAR look angles of the terrain. We process the output LIDAR frames using our SR algorithm and the results show that the achieved level of accuracy and precision of the SR generated landing site DEM is more than adequate for detecting hazardous terrain features and identifying safe areas.

Bulyshev, Alexander↗

Combined EDL-Mobility Planning for Planetary Missions

This paper presents an analysis framework for planetary missions that have coupled mobility and EDL (Entry-Descent-Landing) systems. Traditional systems engineering approaches to mobility missions such as MERs (Mars Exploration Rovers) and MSL (Mars Science Laboratory) independently study the EDL system and the mobility system, and does not perform explicit trade-off between them or risk minimization of the overall system. A major challenge is that EDL operation is inherently uncertain and its analysis results such as landing footprint are described using PDF (Probability Density Function). The proposed approach first builds a mobility cost-to-go map that encodes the driving cost of any point on the map to a science target location. The cost could include variety of metrics such as traverse distance, time, wheel rotation on soft soil, and closeness to hazards. It then convolves the mobility cost-to-go map with the landing PDF given by the EDL system, which provides a histogram of driving cost, which can be used to evaluate the overall risk of the mission. By capturing the coupling between EDL and mobility explicitly, this analysis framework enables quantitative tradeoff between EDL and mobility system performance, as well as the characterization of risks in a statistical way. The simulation results are presented with a realistic Mars terrain data

mission analysis↗

Update on SRNL Support of Saltstone Sampling and Analysis - 16325

At the Savannah River Site, low-level waste is immobilized in cementitious waste form known as saltstone. The saltstone Performance Assessment models the performance of the waste form and other aspects of the Saltstone Disposal Facility over ten thousand years after closure to determine the transport history of radionuclides and other hazardous constituents in low-level waste. As part of an ongoing Performance Assessment Maintenance Plan, Savannah River Remediation with Savannah River National Laboratory, has designed a sampling and analyses plan to correlate the properties of field-emplaced samples and samples processed and cured in the laboratory. As part of the plan, SRR has retrieved field-emplaced samples from SDU 2A. Prior to analyzing the field emplaced samples, SRNL is developing the strategy, protocols and equipment necessary to retrieve, store in an inert environment, and analyze the three sample sets of interest outlined in the analysis plan. To date, the simulant saltstone samples have been analyzed for hydraulic conductivity, porosity, density, and other properties. This paper will give an update to the current protocols and equipment being utilized at Savannah River National Laboratory for storing and analyzing the field-emplaced and simulant samples, results from the simulant saltstone analyses, as well as analysis plans for the samples retrieved from the Saltstone Processing Facility and the field-emplaced samples. (authors)

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Follow-on Report of Analysis of Approaches to Supplemental Treatment of Low-Activity Waste at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation (Vol. I)

The Hanford Site, in southeast Washington State, is preparing to disposition approximately 56,000,000 gallons (56 Mgal) of radioactive and chemically hazardous wastes currently stored in underground tanks at the site. Tank wastes will be divided into a high-activity fraction and a low-activity fraction for subsequent treatment and disposition. A waste processing and treatment facility, the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP), will include the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification facility (WTP HLW Vitrification Facility) for immobilizing the high-activity fraction and a low-activity waste (LAW) vitrification facility (WTP LAW Vitrification Facility) for immobilizing the low-activity fraction. Both facilities will use vitrification technology to immobilize the Hanford tank wastes in a glass waste form. The volume of LAW to be treated and disposed of following waste retrieval and WTP operations will exceed the planned processing capacity of the WTP LAW Vitrification Facility. ORP-11242,-River Protection Project System Plan, estimates a shortfall in LAW treatment capacity of approximately 56 Mgal, approximately 50% of the projected LAW volume. To maintain the planned tank waste processing mission schedule, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will require additional LAW treatment capacity (termed “supplemental LAW”) external to the WTP process. LAW must be solidified by a treatment technology before the waste can be permanently disposed of in an approved DOE on-site disposal facility or a commercial (state or U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission [NRC-licensed]) off-site mixed low-level waste disposal facility. A decision on the approach to supplemental LAW treatment, processing, and disposal has not yet been made

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Analysis of low-altitude wind speed and direction shears

Horizontal wind profile measurements recorded at the NASA 150-Meter Ground Winds Tower Facility at the Kennedy Space Center, Fla., are analyzed to evaluate wind shears known to be hazardous to the ascent and descent of conventional aircraft and the Space Shuttle. Twenty 5-s intervals of high (between 10 and 18 m/s) and gale force (18 to 33 m/s) surface winds provided instantaneous recordings every 0.1 s per speed, direction, and tower level from 3-150 m. Mathematical (maximum, mean, standard deviation) and graphical (percentage frequency distribution) descriptions of absolute, positive, and negative speed and direction shears with altitude (six vertical layers) and along flight path (one horizontal distance) are presented as functions of the intensity categories and significant values.

Alexander, M. B.↗

Rich-Text based PSA Model Transformation and Verification in RiskA

Nuclear Energy is one of the most possible alternative to fossil energy in large-scale. Nuclear safety is the lifeline of nuclear energy development, and has been an important part of national security, especially after the accident of Fukushima. On the basis of computer codes, reliability engineering and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PSA) is effective methods to improve the safety of nuclear power plants. After many years of development, the methodologies, applications and relevant soft programs have been quite sufficient in the area of nuclear safety. However, it is still difficult for the current PSA technologies and software to meet the needs of dealing with the problems of quantitatively public risk assessment in the digital society. Especially, there are so many software that adopted different modeling and analyzing methods, which brings difficulties to the comparison, evaluation or verification for different software and models. By using its own academic advantages, the advanced nuclear energy research team, i.e., FDS Team has invested a few hundreds person-years of independent research and development of a reliability and probabilistic safety assessment software system RiskA. The system consists of three main functions: device reliability optimization management, probabilistic safety assessment and instantaneous risk monitoring, and the comprehensive public risk assessment in digital society. RiskA establishes an integrated risk evaluation system for the device reliability, nuclear power plant (NPP) risk monitoring and public risk assessment. Currently, RiskA has successfully been applied in more than 600 organizations and institutes from a variety of fields in 39 countries, involving nuclear, aerospace, defense and so on. For example, RiskA has been used in the safety analysis of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), FDS series fusion reactor, and the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences 'the Future Advanced Nuclear Fission Energy - Accelerator Driven Sub-critical (ADS) transmutation system'. Also, RiskA has been used in public risk communication and risk assessment. Among them, Third Qinshan nuclear power plant Risk Monitor (TQRM), which is the China's first domestic nuclear safety analysis software used in the actual online operation, has been highly apprised by renowned experts in the field. Meanwhile, it has been identified as the first domestic nuclear power plant risk monitoring system with completely independent intellectual property rights, and has reached the international advanced level. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

A Preliminary Probabilistic Performance Assessment Model for Radiological and Chemical Contamination at the West Valley Site, New York - 19295

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States at the WNYNSC. NFS built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (640 metric tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations halted in 1972 and never restarted, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. The reprocessing wastes include high-level waste (HLW), so U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was compelled to complete certain waste management activities under the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Act of 1980, including decommissioning of WVDP facilities. As collaborating agencies, NYSERDA and the DOE are tasked with making decisions about decommissioning and risk reduction for the West Valley Site. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) was contracted to develop a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) model to assist the agencies in their decision making process for decommissioning the WVDP and WNYNSC. One important tool that is needed in order to inform the decision-making process is a science-based model of the contamination at the West Valley Site and its potential implications for human health and the environment. The West Valley PPA Model (the Model), developed using the GoldSim modeling software, is a tool intended to provide support for decision making with uncertainty, in a manner that is transparent, defensible, and robust. The PPA Model includes contaminant transport and health effects components, and is organized around geographically-organized contaminated facilities. These include the waste disposal areas licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the State of New York, a waste tank farm for storage of HLW resulting from reprocessing operations, and several areas contaminated with radioactive and chemical constituents. The Model evaluates contaminant transport from these sources to points of exposure across the site and into receiving surface waters and sediments. Hypothetical people and wildlife are exposed to contamination at these locations, and the effects of these exposures are evaluated. Contaminant transport processes to be evaluated in the Model include groundwater and surface water transport, contaminant translocation by plants and animals, diffusion in subsurface air and water, and erosion of the Site. The evaluation of exposures to people in this preliminary model is limited to a resident farmer scenario, and ecological assessment is performed at the level of a screening analysis. The results of these preliminary evaluations inform future model developments. Model results are subjected to sensitivity analysis in order to determine those pathways and parameters that are most significant in influencing the results. This information allows analysts and decision makers to focus on those aspects of Site behavior and processes that contribute most to overall uncertainty. With this information, the Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) can inform defensible decisions regarding remediation of the Site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Tea consumption and risk of bladder cancer in the Bladder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) Study: Pooled analysis of 12 international cohort studies

Tea has been shown to be associated with reduced risk of several diseases including cardiovascular diseases, stroke, metabolic syndrome, and obesity. However, the results on the relationship between tea consumption and bladder cancer are conflicting. This research aimed to assess the association between tea consumption and risk of bladder cancer using a pooled analysis of prospective cohort data. Individual data from 532,949 participants in 12 cohort studies, were pooled for analyses. Cox regression models stratified by study centre was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% CIs. Fractional polynomial regression models were used to examine the dose–response relationship. A higher level of tea consumption was associated with lower risk of bladder cancer incidence (compared with no tea consumption: HR = 0.87, 95% C.I. = 0.77–0.98 for low consumption; HR = 0.86, 95% C.I. = 0.77–0.96 for moderate consumption; HR = 0.84, 95% C.I. = 0.75–0.95 for high consumption). When stratified by sex and smoking status, this reduced risk was statistically significant among men and current and former smokers. In addition, dose–response analyses showed a lower bladder cancer risk with increment of 100 ml of tea consumption per day (HR-increment = 0.97; 95% CI = 0.96–0.98). A similar inverse association was found among males, current and former smokers while never smokers and females showed non-significant results, suggesting potential sex-dependent effect. Higher consumption of tea is associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer with potential interaction with sex and smoking status. Further studies are needed to clarify the mechanisms for a protective effect of tea (e.g. inhibition of the survival and proliferation of cancer cells and anti-inflammatory mechanisms) and its interaction with smoking and sex.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Project acceleration through the application of innovation on the pile fuel storage pond at Sellafield - 15060

The Pile Fuel Storage Pond (PFSP) at Sellafield was built between 1948 and 1950 to receive, store and de-can fuel and isotopes from the Windscale Piles. Since closure of the Piles in 1957, the facility has been used to store materials from the UK nuclear programme. The pond has built up a large inventory of miscellaneous items and pond sludge, which combine to create a challenging nuclear clean up job. To enable clean up, the operator required a capability to encapsulate the pond sludge for long term storage, the operator initiated a project. Applying conventional project delivery processes resulted in an unacceptable cost and schedule for provision of this capability. To address this issue, the project to deliver the plant was restarted with a study to look at the selection of process routing for the sludge. In the decision making processes for this study increased weighting was given to innovative re-use of existing facilities and speed of deployment. Innovation was also applied to the study process to enable early option selection where this was clearly of benefit. This focus on innovation produced the first significant improvement for the project with the scheme selected offering a 30% reduction in baseline cost and schedule. The focus on schedule acceleration was carried through into the early design phases of the new project. In the concept stage process simplification was achieved through functional analysis of the plant combined with a drive to utilise technology and learning from other industries. This resulted in a plant concept which could be delivered more quickly than the baseline schedule with a high level of confidence. Once the main benefits associated with innovation of the plant concept had been achieved focus was switched to how the project was to be delivered. The project looked at where delivery in the nuclear environment tended to be complex and time consuming. Focusing on these areas and learning from other industries led to significant innovation in delivery processes, with particular success in the rigorous application of value transition point analysis and minimisation of onsite works. The combination of innovative design and delivery processes led to a further reduction in the project baseline cost and schedule. Application of engineering innovation, focused on engineering simplification and challenge of the engineering norms, reduced the cost of the project by English Pound 50 m (65%) and reduced the schedule for delivery by over 3 years. The project has been recognised as an exemplar of how to apply the 'decommissioning mind-set', which is the cultural change being targeted by Sellafield Ltd to deliver the decommissioning of its high hazard facilities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Community Resilience Indicator Analysis: Commonly Used Indicators from Peer-Reviewed Research (Updated for Research Published 2003-2021)

In 2017, FEMA’s National Integration Center (NIC) Technical Assistance (TA) Branch identified a need to establish a data-driven basis for prioritizing locations for TA investment and guiding local emergency management planning. To achieve this goal, FEMA tasked Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) with identifying commonly used indicators of community resilience across the landscape of published peer-reviewed research. FEMA and Argonne completed the first Community Resilience Indicator Analysis (CRIA) in 2018 and repeated the process in 2022. The CRIA process begins with a literature review and cataloguing of published peer-reviewed assessment methodologies on social vulnerability and community resilience. The literature review findings are then filtered by inclusion criteria established by the CRIA research team to ensure the methodologies are: (1) Quantitative, (2) Data and methodology are publicly available, (3) Calculated at the county level or lower, (4) Examine generalized hazard risk (rather than a singular hazard), and (5) Focused on pre-disaster community conditions. After this, the research team identifies the commonly used indicators across these methodologies and selects the best data source for each indicator. Finally, the research team bins the data for visual display, conducts a correlation analysis and creates a composite index, the FEMA Community Resilience Index (FEMA CRI). In 2018, the CRIA identified eight resilience and vulnerability assessment methodologies and 20 commonly used indicators (indicators used in three or more of the eight methodologies). The FEMA CRI in 2018 was created from these 20 indicators and was produced for at the county level. The 2022 CRIA updated the literature review to expand the list of methodologies examined and followed the same process, resulting in an analysis of 14 methodologies published between 2003 and 2021 and 22 indicators identified as commonly used (indicators used in five or more of the 14 methodologies). In 2022, the research team produced the FEMA CRI at the county and the census tract levels. To make the CRIA data more accessible and more actionable, each individual indicator and the FEMA CRI is binned and included in FEMA’s Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool (RAPT). RAPT enables emergency managers and community partners to quickly visualize relative differences in potential resilience by county, tribe and census tract. By reviewing the data for each of these 22 indicators individually, emergency managers can gain insights for targeted outreach strategies, planning, mitigation investments and response and recovery operations. Communities, regional governments and others can use this data to better understand potential challenges to resilience. As the social science field of examining and validating indicators of resilience evolves, FEMA will update RAPT to provide emergency managers and community partners with additional data and tools to inform planning, mitigation, response and recovery. It is important to understand that the role of the emergency manager is not to change or to “improve” the data, but to plan appropriately for the community characteristics reflected in the data. These datasets are community characteristics that researchers have identified as important considerations for resilience. For example, people with disabilities may have greater challenges to be resilient to disasters. If a community has a high population of people with disabilities, the emergency manager(s) may need to create tailored preparedness outreach programs and strategies to ensure those residents have support if evacuation is necessary. Rather than label these indicators as an absolute measure of resilience, FEMA considers “potential challenges to resilience” a better frame to understand these indicators. Everyone is vulnerable to disasters. While scholars theorize that certain characteristics may make an individual or a household more socially vulnerable, the data does not reflect measures that individuals and/or communities have taken to address potential challenges, such as emergency management planning and outreach or household preparedness measures. To aid emergency managers in understanding how to use these indicators, calling them potential challenges to resilience supports a more positive and strategic application of the data in all phases of emergency management.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Reirradiation of Recurrent and Second Primary Head and Neck Cancer With Proton Therapy

Purpose: To report the clinical outcomes of head and neck reirradiation with proton therapy. Methods and Materials: From 2004 to 2014, 61 patients received curative-intent proton reirradiation, primarily for disease involving skull base structures, at a median of 23 months from the most recent previous course of radiation. Most had squamous cell (52.5%) or adenoid cystic (16.4%) carcinoma. Salvage surgery before reirradiation was undertaken in 47.5%. Gross residual disease was present in 70.5%. For patients with microscopic residual disease, the median dose of reirradiation was 66 Gy (relative biological effectiveness), and for gross disease was 70.2 Gy (relative biological effectiveness). Concurrent chemotherapy was given in 27.9%. Results: The median follow-up time was 15.2 months and was 28.7 months for patients remaining alive. The 2-year overall survival estimate was 32.7%, and the median overall survival was 16.5 months. The 2-year cumulative incidence of local failure with death as a competing risk was 19.7%; regional nodal failure, 3.3%; and distant metastases, 38.3%. On multivariable analysis, Karnofsky performance status ≤70%, the presence of a gastrostomy tube before reirradiation, and an increasing number of previous courses of radiation therapy were associated with a greater hazard ratio for death. A cutaneous primary tumor, gross residual disease, increasing gross tumor volume, and a lower radiation dose were associated with a greater hazard ratio for local failure. Grade ≥3 toxicities were seen in 14.7% acutely and 24.6% in the late setting, including 3 treatment-related deaths. Conclusions: Reirradiation with proton therapy, with or without chemotherapy, provided reasonable locoregional disease control, toxicity profiles, and survival outcomes for an advanced-stage and heavily pretreated population. Additional data are needed to identify which patients are most likely to benefit from aggressive efforts to achieve local disease control and to evaluate the potential benefit of proton therapy relative to other modalities of reirradiation.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗