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DOE OSTI2018

Challenges in Eye Tracking for Dynamic User-Driven Workflows

This three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project aimed at developing a developed prototype data collection system and analysis techniques to enable the measurement and analysis of user-driven dynamic workflows. Over 3 years, our team developed software, algorithms, and analysis technique to explore the feasibility of capturing and automatically associating eye tracking data with geospatial content, in a user-directed, dynamic visual search task. Although this was a small LDRD, we demonstrated the feasibility of automatically capturing, associating, and expressing gaze events in terms of geospatial image coordinates, even as the human "analyst" is given complete freedom to manipulate the stimulus image during a visual search task. This report describes the problem under examination, our approach, the techniques and software we developed, key achievements, ideas that did not work as we had hoped, and unsolved problems we hope to tackle in future projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE WEAK, MAIN, AND FISSION-RECYCLING r-PROCESS

There has been a persistent conundrum in attempts to model the nucleosynthesis of heavy elements by rapid neutron capture (the r-process). Although the locations of the abundance peaks near nuclear mass numbers 130 and 195 identify an environment of rapid neutron capture near closed nuclear shells, the abundances of elements just above and below those peaks are often underproduced by more than an order of magnitude in model calculations. At the same time, there is a debate in the literature as to what degree the r-process elements are produced in supernovae or the mergers of binary neutron stars. In this paper we propose a novel solution to both problems. We demonstrate that the underproduction of nuclides above and below the r-process peaks in main or weak r-process models (like magnetohydrodynamic jets or neutrino-driven winds in core-collapse supernovae) can be supplemented via fission fragment distributions from the recycling of material in a neutron-rich environment such as that encountered in neutron star mergers (NSMs). In this paradigm, the abundance peaks themselves are well reproduced by a moderately neutron-rich, main r-process environment such as that encountered in the magnetohydrodynamical jets in supernovae supplemented with a high-entropy, weakly neutron-rich environment such as that encountered in the neutrino-driven-wind model to produce the lighter r-process isotopes. Moreover, we show that the relative contributions to the r-process abundances in both the solar system and metal-poor stars from the weak, main, and fission-recycling environments required by this proposal are consistent with estimates of the relative Galactic event rates of core-collapse supernovae for the weak and main r-process and NSMs for the fission-recycling r-process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Three-dimensional virtual acoustic displays

The development of an alternative medium for displaying information in complex human-machine interfaces is described. The 3-D virtual acoustic display is a means for accurately transferring information to a human operator using the auditory modality; it combines directional and semantic characteristics to form naturalistic representations of dynamic objects and events in remotely sensed or simulated environments. Although the technology can stand alone, it is envisioned as a component of a larger multisensory environment and will no doubt find its greatest utility in that context. The general philosophy in the design of the display has been that the development of advanced computer interfaces should be driven first by an understanding of human perceptual requirements, and later by technological capabilities or constraints. In expanding on this view, current and potential uses are addressed of virtual acoustic displays, such displays are characterized, and recent approaches to their implementation and application are reviewed, the research project at NASA-Ames is described in detail, and finally some critical research issues for the future are outlined.

Wenzel, Elizabeth M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

A New Class of Flares from Accreting Supermassive Black Holes

Accreting supermassive black holes (SMBHs) can exhibit variable emission across the electromagnetic spectrum and over a broad range of timescales. The variability of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the ultraviolet and optical is usually at the few tens of per cent level over timescales of hours to weeks1. Recently, rare, more dramatic changes to the emission from accreting SMBHs have been observed, including tidal disruption events2,3,4,5, ‘changing look’ AGNs6,7,8,9 and other extreme variability objects10,11. The physics behind the ‘re-ignition’, enhancement and ‘shut-down’ of accretion onto SMBHs is not entirely understood. Here we present a rapid increase in ultraviolet–optical emission in the centre of a nearby galaxy, marking the onset of sudden increased accretion onto a SMBH. The optical spectrum of this flare, dubbed AT 2017bgt, exhibits a mix of emission features. Some are typical of luminous, unobscured AGNs, but others are likely driven by Bowen fluorescence—robustly linked here with high-velocity gas in the vicinity of the accreting SMBH. The spectral features and increased ultraviolet flux show little evolution over a period of at least 14 months. This disfavours the tidal disruption of a star as their origin, and instead suggests a longer-term event of intensified accretion. Together with two other recently reported events with similar properties, we define a new class of SMBH-related flares. This has important implications for the classification of different types of enhanced accretion onto SMBHs.

Benny Trakhtenbrot↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benefits and challenges of vibroacoustic process monitoring to support operators in nuclear research facilities

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2024, global nuclear energy capacity is projected to increase by 2.5 times by 2050 in their high-case scenario. Research on the laboratory scale of innovative processes within nuclear facilities is ongoing to improve nuclear fuel cycle capabilities. Vibroacoustic process monitoring of these techniques has potential to inform operators regarding process specific metrics, predictive maintenance, and anomalous event detection. Additionally, this type of monitoring has the potential to aid in nuclear safeguards. Challenges regarding vibroacoustic monitoring in these environments include high temperature, high radiation, limited access, and shielded equipment limiting sensor type and placement. Microphones, accelerometers, and temperature sensors were deployed both inside and near these environments during operation to determine environment driven limitations, sound attenuation of containment enclosures, process specific metrics, and future potential of vibroacoustic monitoring in these environments. Overall, this work highlights the benefits and limitations of vibroacoustic process monitoring in nuclear research facilities.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Probabilistic Forecast of Single–Phase Flow in Porous Media With Uncertain Properties

Uncertainty about geologic makeup and properties of the subsurface renders inadequate a unique quantitative prediction of flow and transport. Instead, multiple alternative scenarios have to be explored within the probabilistic framework, typically by means of Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). These can be computationally expensive, and often prohibitively so, especially when the goal is to compute the tails of a distribution, i.e., probabilities of rare events, which are necessary for risk assessment and decision making under uncertainty. We deploy the method of distributions to derive a deterministic equation for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of hydraulic head in an aquifer with uncertain (random) hydraulic conductivity. The CDF equation relies on a self-consistent closure approximation, which ensures that the resulting CDF of hydraulic head has the same mean and variance as those computed with either statistical moment equation (the approach used herein) or MCS. We conduct a series of numerical experiments dealing with steady-state two-dimensional flow driven by either a natural hydraulic head gradient or a pumping well. Furthermore, these experiments reveal that the CDF method remains accurate and robust for highly heterogeneous formations with the variance of log conductivity as large as five. For the same accuracy, it is also up to four orders of magnitude faster than MCS in computing hydraulic head with a required degree of confidence (probability).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamics and observational signatures of core-collapse supernovae with central engines: hydrodynamics simulations with Monte Carlo post-processing

A long-lived central engine embedded in expanding supernova ejecta can alter the dynamics and observational signatures of the event, producing an unusually luminous, energetic, and/or rapidly evolving transient. We use 2D hydrodynamics simulations to study the effect of a central energy source, varying the amount, rate, and isotropy of the energy deposition. We post-process the results with a time-dependent Monte Carlo radiation transport code to extract observational signatures. The engine excavates a bubble at the centre of the ejecta, which becomes Rayleigh–Taylor unstable. Sufficiently powerful engines are able to break through the edge of the bubble and accelerate, shred, and compositionally mix the entire ejecta. The breakout of the engine-driven wind occurs at distinct rupture points, and the outflowing high-velocity gas may eventually give rise to radio emission. The dynamical impact of the engine leads to faster rising optical light curves, with photon escape facilitated by the faster expansion of the ejecta and the opening of low-density channels. For models with strong engines, the spectra are initially hot and featureless, but later evolve to resemble those of broad-line Ic supernovae. Under certain conditions, line emission from ionized, low-velocity material near the centre of the ejecta may be able to escape and produce narrow emission similar to that seen in interacting supernovae. We discuss how variability in the engine energy reservoir and injection rate could give rise to a heterogeneous set of events spanning multiple observational classes, including the fast blue optical transients, broad-line Ic supernovae, and superluminous supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cristae formation is a mechanical buckling event controlled by the inner mitochondrial membrane lipidome

Cristae are high–curvature structures in the inner mitochondrial membrane (IMM) that are crucial for ATP production. While cristae–shaping proteins have been defined, analogous lipid–based mechanisms have yet to be elucidated. Here, we combine experimental lipidome dissection with multi–scale modeling to investigate how lipid interactions dictate IMM morphology and ATP generation. When modulating phospholipid (PL) saturation in engineered yeast strains, we observed a surprisingly abrupt breakpoint in IMM topology driven by a continuous loss of ATP synthase organization at cristae ridges. We found that cardiolipin (CL) specifically buffers the inner mitochondrial membrane against curvature loss, an effect that is independent of ATP synthase dimerization. To explain this interaction, we developed a continuum model for cristae tubule formation that integrates both lipid and protein–mediated curvatures. This model highlighted a snapthrough instability, which drives IMM collapse upon small changes in membrane properties. We also showed that cardiolipin is essential in low–oxygen conditions that promote PL saturation. These results demonstrate that the mechanical function of cardiolipin is dependent on the surrounding lipid and protein components of the IMM.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Combining In-situ Diagnostics and Data Analytics for Discovery of Process-Structure-Property Relationships in AM parts – A Step Toward Digital Twins

In-situ additive manufacturing (AM) diagnostic tools (e.g., optical/infrared imaging, acoustic, etc.) already exist to correlate process anomalies to printed part defects. This current work aimed to augment existing capabilities by: 1) Incorporating in-situ imaging w/ machine learning (ML) image processing software (ORNL- developed "Peregrine") for AM process anomaly detection 2) Synchronizing multiple in-situ sensors for simultaneous analysis of AM build events 3) Correlating in-situ AM process data, generated part defects and part mechanical properties The key R&D question investigated was to determine if these new combined hardware/software tools could be used to successfully quantify defect distributions for parts build via SNL laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) machines, aiming to better understand data-driven process-structure-property- performance relationships. High resolution optical cameras and acoustic microphones were successfully integrated in two LPBF machines and linked to the Peregrine ML software. The software was successfully calibrated on both machines and used to image hundreds of layers of multiple builds to train the ML software in identifying printed part vs powder. The software's validation accuracy to identify this aspect increased from 56% to 98.8% over three builds. Lighting conditions inside the chamber were found to significantly impact ML algorithm predictions from in-situ sensors, so these were tailored to each machine's internal framework. Finally, 3D part reconstructions were successfully generated for a build from the compressed stack of layer-wise images. Resolution differences nearest and furthest from the optical camera were discussed. Future work aims to improve optical resolution, increase process anomalies identified, and integrate more sensor modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lightcurves, Rotation Periods, and Colors for Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s First Asteroid Discoveries

We present lightcurves, rotation periods, and colors for the first asteroid discoveries made with the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. These are the first science results derived from the 2103 asteroid discoveries released as part of the Rubin First Look (RFL) media event on 2025 June 23, in which the first LSST Camera commissioning images were released. The ∼340,000 observations in which the discoveries were made span nine nights between 2025 April 21 and May 5. With a limiting single-epoch 5σ depth of ∼23–25 mag and dense temporal sampling under an irregular, commissioning-driven cadence, the RFL observations provide an ideal test bed for determination of rotation periods, including sensitivity to rapid rotation. We model lightcurves and derive rotation periods and colors for the ∼2000 objects. We find 75 main-belt asteroids (MBAs) and one near-Earth object (NEO) with reliable rotation periods spanning 0.031–21.3 hr and a photometric precision in the range of 0.05–0.15 mag. We find 19 superfast rotators with periods shorter than the 2.2 hr spin barrier. Rubin-discovered MBA 2025 MN 45 is the fastest-rotating d > 0.5 km known asteroid with a rotation period of 1.9 minutes; along with NEO 2025 MJ 71 (1.9 minutes) and Rubin-discovered MBAs 2025 MK 41 (3.8 minutes), 2025 MV 71 (13 minutes), and 2025 MG 56 (16 minutes), these five super- to ultrafast rotators join a couple of NEOs as the fastest-spinning subkilometer asteroids known. As this study demonstrates, even in early commissioning, Rubin is successfully probing a previously sparsely sampled region of the subkilometer size−spin rate regime for MBAs.

Greenstreet, Sarah [NSF National Optical-Infrared ↗

NASA NTRS2011

Smackdown: Adventures in Simulation Standards and Interoperability

The paucity of existing employer-driven simulation education and the need for workers broadly trained in Modeling & Simulation (M&S) poses a critical need that the simulation community as a whole must address. This paper will describe how this need became an impetus for a new inter-university activity that allows students to learn about simulation by doing it. The event, called Smackdown, was demonstrated for the first time in April at the Spring Simulation Multi-conference. Smackdown is an adventure in international cooperation. Students and faculty took part from the US and Europe supported by IEEE/SISO standards, industry software and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) content of are supply mission to the Moon. The developers see Smackdown providing all participants with a memorable, interactive, problem-solving experience, which can contribute, importantly to the workforce of the future. This is part of the larger need to increase undergraduate education in simulation and could be a prime candidate for senior design projects.

Elfrey, Priscilla R.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Dust Abrasion Damage on Martian Solar Arrays: Experimental Investigation and Opportunity Rover Performance Analysis

Here we investigate the effects of erosion and weathering that occur on III-V cover-glass interconnected cells (CICs) after exposure to Mars dust storm conditions. The durability of these materials in a Martian environment is not well characterized so we perform analogous experimentation. To replicate the dust impingement, test coupons were placed in an enclosure and sandblasted with Mars dust simulant. We show the J-V response dependency on both incident angle and exposure times. We find that the simulated Martian dust storm often results in damage to the anti-reflective coating and subsequent reduced short circuit current. Reduction in the open circuit voltage is observed, likely caused by structural damage to the crystal lattice after CIC fracture. We employ data-driven modeling to determine a performance degradation rate that is consistent with zero within uncertainty. We also quantify the soiling contribution and power degradation of the photovoltaic cells on Mars through analysis of 4.95 Martian years of report-out power conditions from the Opportunity rover. We find that atmospheric dust suspended due to a weather event does not result in instantaneous settled dust on the PV cells. We calculate via autocorrelation function that the dust settling rate is approximately 21 Sols from atmospheric dust suspension. The findings presented here deliver a realistic approximation for the insolation values and subsequent PV power expected over time on the Martian surface thus informing future dust abatement systems.

McMillon-Brown, Lyndsey↗

NASA NTRS2019

Dust Abrasion Damage on Martian Solar Arrays: Experimental Investigation and Opportunity Rover Performance Analysis

McMillon-Brown, Lyndsey↗

NASA NTRS2021

Data-driven landslide nowcasting at the global scale

Landslides affect nearly every country in the world each year. To better understand this global hazard, the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed previously. LHASA version 1 combines satellite precipitation estimates with a global landslide susceptibility map to produce a gridded map of potentially hazardous areas from 60° North-South every 3 h. LHASA version 1 categorizes the world’s land surface into three ratings: high, moderate, and low hazard with a single decision tree that first determines if the last seven days of rainfall were intense, then evaluates landslide susceptibility. LHASA version 2 has been developed with a data-driven approach. The global susceptibility map was replaced with a collection of explanatory variables, and two new dynamically varying quantities were added: snow and soil moisture. Along with antecedent rainfall, these variables modulated the response to current daily rainfall. In addition, the Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) was supplemented with several inventories of rainfall-triggered landslide events. These factors were incorporated into the machine-learning framework XGBoost, which was trained to predict the presence or absence of landslides over the period 2015–2018, with the years 2019–2020 reserved for model evaluation. As a result of these improvements, the new global landslide nowcast was twice as likely to predict the occurrence of historical landslides as LHASA version 1, given the same global false positive rate. Furthermore, the shift to probabilistic outputs allows users to directly manage the trade-off between false negatives and false positives, which should make the nowcast useful for a greater variety of geographic settings and applications. In a retrospective analysis, the trained model ran over a global domain for 5 years, and results for LHASA version 1 and version 2 were compared. Due to the importance of rainfall and faults in LHASA version 2, nowcasts would be issued more frequently in some tropical countries, such as Colombia and Papua New Guinea; at the same time, the new version placed less emphasis on arid regions and areas far from the Pacific Rim. LHASA version 2 provides a nearly real-time view of global landslide hazard for a variety of stakeholders.

XGBoos↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tail Sizing Considerations for Wingtip Propulsor Driven Aircraft Applied to the Parallel Electric-Gas Architecture with Synergistic Utilization Scheme (PEGASUS) Concept

This research focuses on the vertical tail sizing implications of a single propulsion system fault when using wingtip propulsors as applied to the PEGASUS concept. PEGASUS is a conceptual regional aircraft featuring wingtip propulsors, an aft boundary layer ingestion propulsor, and inboard propulsors. Using four propulsors on the wing, rather than the typical two, enables a reduction in the vertical tail size needed in the event of a single fault in the propulsion system. Achieving a reduction in vertical tail size, and its associated reduction in drag, is dependent on splitting the takeoff thrust appropriately between the inboard and wingtip propulsors. At takeoff, the wingtip propulsors can only provide a small portion of the takeoff thrust. Compared with a conventional baseline vehicle employing only inboard propulsors, the increased wetted area from the wingtip nacelles outweighs the cruise drag benefits obtained from the reduced tail size and the reduction in wingtip vortices due to the wingtip propellers. The research highlights the need for aggressive cruise drag reductions on PEGASUS, possibly through increased use of the boundary layer ingestion propulsor. By lowering the wingtip propulsor power at cruise, the propulsors would be better sized for takeoff and have smaller nacelles with lower drag.

Nathaniel J Blaesser↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Millicharged particles from the heavens: single- and multiple-scattering signatures

For nearly a century, studying cosmic-ray air showers has driven progress in our understanding of elementary particle physics. In this work, we revisit the production of millicharged particles in these atmospheric showers and provide new constraints for XENON1T and Super-Kamiokande and new sensitivity estimates of current and future detectors, such as JUNO. We discuss distinct search strategies, specifically studies of single-energy-deposition events, where one electron in the detector receives a relatively large energy transfer, as well as multiple-scattering events consisting of (at least) two relatively small energy depositions. We demonstrate that these atmospheric search strategies — especially the multiple-scattering signature — provide significant room for improvement beyond existing searches, in a way that is complementary to anthropogenic, beam-based searches for MeV-GeV millicharged particles. Finally, we also discuss the implementation of a Monte Carlo simulation for millicharged particle detection in large-volume neutrino detectors, such as IceCube.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗